What a 6 Nations Weekend...

by No9 Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:18 am

Title cant be won this weekend, but there's silverware up for grabs, and also the chance to make a claim..

Scotland

Win this weekend and they take the Calcutta Cup (of course) but also the Triple Crown. Also with Italy left in the final weekend, puts them in contention for the title.

England

Win this weekend and they take the Calcutta Cup and one foot closer to the elusive Second Grand Slam (not easy back to back).

Ireland

MUST win this weekend, to keep title hopes alive. Lose and its all over. But either way, they can still stop England taking a Slam.

Its going to be one hell of a 6 Nations weekend.... Yahoo

by No 7&1/2 Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:25 am

Going to be a great set of matches. Not a clue on Wales Ireland guessed with the home team for predictions and the most interesting Calcuttta match in ages! Title can be won this weekend though unlikely.

by Scottrf Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:40 am

No9 wrote:Title cant be won this weekend

Yes it can. Pretty much guaranteed if England and Wales win.

by TightHEAD Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:49 am

Scottrf wrote:
No9 wrote:Title cant be won this weekend
Yes it can. Pretty much guaranteed if England and Wales win.

by Rugbyjk Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:00 pm

Cannot wait!!

by mr_stonelea Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:02 pm

"Title cant be won this weekend"

Surely if England and Wales win, the only way England can be denied the title this weekend is if Ireland manage a losing bonus point and a 4 try bonus point in their defeat. Will leave Ireland on 12 points and England on 17.

by dummy_half Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:12 pm

mr_stonelea wrote:"Title cant be won this weekend"

Surely if England and Wales win, the only way England can be denied the title this weekend is if Ireland manage a losing bonus point and a 4 try bonus point in their defeat. Will leave Ireland on 12 points and England on 17.

And then if England win with a bonus point, Ireland's BPs would be irrelevant.

by No9 Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:29 pm

Ok.. the title can (technically) be won this weekend, but NO SIDE will be awarded the trophy this weekend will they picard

As for England winning with BP, you really think they'll score 4 tries against Scotland. I hope Scotland win, but I think they'd have more of a chance in Murryfield, but Twickenham, I just think England will be too strong. But I cant see them scoring 4 tries.

I think (sob) Ireland will win in Cardiff, but its going to be very close, and again no BP for Ireland (unless they lose, in which case it will be so close a Losing BP is definitely on the cards).

Either way, I think next week in Dublin will be Ireland's day (St Paddy's day +1 as well). So don't put the white ribbons on that trophy yet. They could easily be green or better still best dust off the dark blue ones.

by No9 Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:32 pm

.. I hate these Bonus Points in this tournament... Really F**** it up. No need for them, get shot and go back to the Points Diff.

by No9 Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:33 pm

.. oh and obviously other nations have played Friday nights, as Wales cant play themselves.. But why is ALWAYS Wales that have these f**** sh!te Friday night fixtures.

by Poorfour Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:27 pm

No9 wrote:.. oh and obviously other nations have played Friday nights, as Wales cant play themselves.. But why is ALWAYS Wales that have these f**** sh!te Friday night fixtures.

I think it's because the WRU like them. Presumably they get a cut from all the hotels because a Friday night game forces fans to stay over.

by dummy_half Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:31 pm

No9

I'm not saying England will get a try bonus point, merely commenting on the maths of the situation - England win, Ireland lose, Ireland can only stay in contention for the title by taking both bonus points and England not doing; an England win puts everyone else out of contention. (Agree that the bonus point thing is unnecessary)

Actually, I think 4 tries against Scotland may be a possibility, but more in a 4 tries to 3 type match than a one-sided tanking (the weather looks good and I'm sure both sides will want to run the ball). While we were pretty shocking against Italy, we did in the end run in 6 tries and it was only Farrell's awful place kicking that made the score look reasonably close - he'd normally have added another 10 points or so from the tee.

I actually think the result on Saturday will end up looking reasonably comfortable (England by 10 +), but that a late try or two will put a gloss on the score line that doesn't reflect a match that will be close to 65-70 minutes. I also think this Scotland team is more than capable of creating and taking some chances against us.

Wales v Ireland should be a close game - Ireland are a bit better team on paper, but Wales at home and presumably after a huge kick up the behind after the Scotland game should come out firing. Really a coin toss match.

by GunsGermsV2 Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:02 pm

I think Ireland are going to get a try bonus point win v Wales.

by No9 Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:13 pm

Just been looking at the permutations..

IF Ireland beat Wales without a BP (can see them winning but 4 tries.. ). AND they beat England (again with Ire not getting try BP) with England getting a Losing BP. Plus England beat Scotland without a BP, then it will be down to Points Diff with Ireland in the driving seat at the moment. Also, cant see England racking the points diff up on their remaining games.

Another scenario, is that Scotland beat England (without a BP - if they do pull it off, cant see them with a Try BP) and Ireland beat Wales, again with no BP, then Scotland need to put a cricket score on against Italy to win title on Points Difference.

... But, again if Scotland beat England, Wales could make it easy for them if Wales beats Ireland, providing Ireland beats England. If this scenario plays out, and England beat Ireland (with no BP), it will be up to Scotland again to put a cricket score on Italy.

So, still anyone's ... with England in the driving seat at the moment.

by No9 Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:15 pm

GunsGermsV2 wrote:I think Ireland are going to get a try bonus point win v Wales.

You may be right..... and I think you may win, but scoring 4 tries.. Nope, 2 probable, 3 maybe.. but 4+ NO!!!

by Rugbyjk Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:16 pm

Is that why they agreed re closed roof? Hoping for more tries?

by No9 Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:19 pm

Perhaps Wales should play awkward and ask for the roof to be open...

by poissonrouge Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:06 pm

if you take it as likely that Scotland get a try bonus against Italy last weekend - then the permutations are as follows
Scotland beat England - they are up for an overall win with 18 pts
- England get 18pts if they beat Ire and get one bonus pt from either match - down to
point diff then. 2 BPs gets them a win
- Ireland get 18 pts if they beat Wales and England - down to points diff. A try BP in either match wins outright
England beat Scotland they win unless
- they lose to Ireland and don't get one more BP than Ireland over last 2 games (try or losing). One BP - down to points diff

Wales beat Ireland
Winner of 6N dependent on winner of England/Scotland - see above scenarios

by GunsGermsV2 Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:10 pm

No9 wrote:
GunsGermsV2 wrote:I think Ireland are going to get a try bonus point win v Wales.

You may be right..... and I think you may win, but scoring 4 tries.. Nope, 2 probable, 3 maybe.. but 4+ NO!!!

Well the odds are definitely against it as in all fairness the most we have managed against Wales in some time is 3 tries.

However, no one thought we would score 5 v the ABs or beat SA with 14 men. Aim big I say.

by GunsGermsV2 Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:21 pm

poissonrouge wrote:if you take it as likely that Scotland get a try bonus against Italy last weekend - then the permutations are as follows
Scotland beat England - they are up for an overall win with 18 pts
- England get 18pts if they beat Ire and get one bonus pt from either match - down to
point diff then. 2 BPs gets them a win
- Ireland get 18 pts if they beat Wales and England - down to points diff. A try BP in either match wins outright
England beat Scotland they win unless
- they lose to Ireland and don't get one more BP than Ireland over last 2 games (try or losing). One BP - down to points diff

Wales beat Ireland
Winner of 6N dependent on winner of England/Scotland - see above scenarios

I think Scotland will scrape a win v England. Worst case scenario England will beat Scotland without a BP. They havent managed 4 tries v Scotland since 2013 and this is a much better Scotland side so I cant see it happening. It has only happened once in the last 10 games between the sides.

Therefore, if Ireland get a win v Wales without a BP we will just have to beat England and deny them both a losing BP and a 4 try BP to take the title.

by poissonrouge Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:26 pm

Therefore, if Ireland get a win v Wales without a BP we will just have to beat England and deny them both a losing BP and a 4 try BP to take the title.

If you think England beat Scotland without BP then Ireland just have to beat England as even one BP from England won't be enough (unless England can claw back the points diff against Ireland with penalties in Scotland game which I would feel very unlikely) If England can get both a try BP and losing BP in game v Ireland (and Ireland don;t get try BP) then England win 6N. That I think is also very unlikely.

by SecretFly Thu Mar 09, 2017 4:55 pm

There are too many 'just's here Cool

... making it all sound so simple.

Having said that, I think Ireland are capable of four tries against Wales if they play hot enough stuff. Likewise, if Wales are in a mood, they might embarrass us. Anything is possible in this Welsh/Irish game. Ireland can often stumble and lose shape if really panicked on pace and by teams willing to take it wide quickly and often. Wales, if they want to play that game, have players that can give such a game a go. If they play it conventionally in the first half and are behind, they'll throw it around more in the second half and I genuinely think Wales have always been better at that off-hand, instinct, counter-attack game than we've ever been, at International level anyway. So it is a game up in the air and potentially a good chance of some nice tries.
If Ireland play with all-out force and precision, like they were doing from middle of last year, then I don't really think four tries are beyond them over 80 minutes. It might be a tough ask, but not beyond them. Two tries either side of half time? - Not so unrealistic.

The quite pointed difference between this year and others is that this year requires those extra tries to keep in the race, when in other years winning was generally enough. So it's a different dynamic in play for all sides this year. Those try numbers are now real targets - and if you're still in the race, you're hunting for them.

by **rodders** Thu Mar 09, 2017 5:14 pm

GunsGermsV2 wrote:I think Ireland are going to get a try bonus point win v Wales.

Me too guns, in fact I expect us to get 10 points from our remaining games. The Scots have Italy on the final weekend so they could pip us to the title if they thrash England.

by Rugbyjk Thu Mar 09, 2017 5:17 pm

Ha! Two hopes and one of em's Bob!

by Luckless Pedestrian Thu Mar 09, 2017 5:29 pm

No9 wrote:
GunsGermsV2 wrote:I think Ireland are going to get a try bonus point win v Wales.

You may be right..... and I think you may win, but scoring 4 tries.. Nope, 2 probable, 3 maybe.. but 4+ NO!!!

It's quite possible. For all the hoo-hah about 'best fans in the world' and the roof being shut, this is a team low on confidence and short of ideas. They may have experience, but I don't see that counting for much. I think Ireland will get off to the better start, score an early try, and ease to a good win.

Alternatively, Wales make the better start, dominate territory and possession, but once again fail to convert that pressure into enough points. Ireland score tries either side of half time and the second half is comfortable for them.

by majesticimperialman Thu Mar 09, 2017 6:26 pm

I guess how Wales play will depend on how many Captains the have telling the ref what they are going to do.

But on a serious note, i don't know what difference the roof being open or shut makes to the game.

But i just cannot see Wales wining this game. Ireland are to strong for Wales. + Wales all ways take time to get going into the game. As Ireland seem to get going from the kick off.

by Scottrf Thu Mar 09, 2017 6:29 pm

Didn't get going from from the kick off against Scotland.

by robbo277 Thu Mar 09, 2017 6:30 pm

I'll be wearing red on Friday. Really hoping England can secure the title this weekend, or the nerves will perhaps be overwhelming next weekend. And that will just be for me watching.

Of course we could bomb it against Scotland. We do that and we'll need a TBP and/or something like a 30 point win against Ireland to get back into contention.

by Rugbyjk Thu Mar 09, 2017 7:12 pm

Behave Robbo, me too, I'm Dai Mario Smith this weekend.

by **rodders** Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:35 am

The Welsh boys are saving themselves for the Lions.

by robbo277 Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:42 am

rodders wrote:The Welsh boys are saving themselves for the Lions.

Will there me any on the plane if they go 3 straight losses against England, Scotland and Ireland? Especially with 2 home games in there.

by Rugbyjk Fri Mar 10, 2017 1:21 pm

Gatlands the boss, so yes.

by SecretFly Fri Mar 10, 2017 1:26 pm

Rugbyjk wrote:Gatlands the boss, so yes.

It's funny but there is actually a high degree of truth probability in that brief comment. Maybe Gats his telling his Welsh boys to take it easy and not to get injured as a lot of them will be needed in New Zealand. Stranger things have happened. After all, Joe Schmidt is practically picking an entire team based on what their form was like a few years ago. Whistle

by GunsGermsV2 Fri Mar 10, 2017 1:29 pm

robbo277 wrote:
rodders wrote:The Welsh boys are saving themselves for the Lions.

Will there me any on the plane if they go 3 straight losses against England, Scotland and Ireland? Especially with 2 home games in there.

I think there will. Wales still have quality players. I think Liam Williams, AWJ and Webb are all fairly likely to be included in the squad.

by Luckless Pedestrian Fri Mar 10, 2017 2:16 pm

I saw a brief interview with Justin Tipuric at lunchtime. It reminded me that Wales still have quality players, if only they had a coaching team to get the best out of them.

I'm marginally more hopeful of a home win now. Which is to say, I'm slightly less certain that Ireland will win comfortably.

by SecretFly Fri Mar 10, 2017 2:21 pm

What did he say Luckless? Do you want us to throw you on a rack and turn the damn wheels? Tell us what he said! Don't leave us in suspense. This is getting nervy now. The Welsh have a secret failsafe plan?

by No9 Fri Mar 10, 2017 2:30 pm

robbo277 wrote:
rodders wrote:The Welsh boys are saving themselves for the Lions.

Will there me any on the plane if they go 3 straight losses against England, Scotland and Ireland? Especially with 2 home games in there.

Lets not forget, there's only 1 side that has played better than Wales, that's Scotland...

Italy, we gave too much respect to, and will regret not putting them to the sword. England got lucky in the dying mins of the game, thanks to a bad kick and p!ss poor defending. However, we had the better of Scotland in the first half, but cant argue, Scotland took us apart in the second and deserved the win.

So, will there be Welsh players on the plane, yes. Not because Gats, but because the Lions is about the best players in UK and Ire. And like it or not, there are very good, very talented players in the Welsh side. England are riding their luck, and its going to run out soon. This week (I hope) but next week a cert.

by robbo277 Fri Mar 10, 2017 2:32 pm

GunsGermsV2 wrote:
robbo277 wrote:
rodders wrote:The Welsh boys are saving themselves for the Lions.

Will there me any on the plane if they go 3 straight losses against England, Scotland and Ireland? Especially with 2 home games in there.

I think there will. Wales still have quality players. I think Liam Williams, AWJ and Webb are all fairly likely to be included in the squad.

My bad, meant to type "be many". Some will go, even if they lose their next two. But a lot of them who may have fancied their chances before the tournament are running out of chances.

by robbo277 Fri Mar 10, 2017 2:38 pm

No9 wrote:
robbo277 wrote:
rodders wrote:The Welsh boys are saving themselves for the Lions.

Will there me any on the plane if they go 3 straight losses against England, Scotland and Ireland? Especially with 2 home games in there.

Lets not forget, there's only 1 side that has played better than Wales, that's Scotland...

Italy, we gave too much respect to, and will regret not putting them to the sword. England got lucky in the dying mins of the game, thanks to a bad kick and p!ss poor defending. However, we had the better of Scotland in the first half, but cant argue, Scotland took us apart in the second and deserved the win.

So, will there be Welsh players on the plane, yes. Not because Gats, but because the Lions is about the best players in UK and Ire. And like it or not, there are very good, very talented players in the Welsh side. England are riding their luck, and its going to run out soon. This week (I hope) but next week a cert.

Again, apologies for the typo, but I meant to say be many, not be any. There will be some, but there are a lot of guys in the Welsh dressing room who have harmed their chances of going.

I disagree that England just got lucky in the dying minutes of the game too. It was a tight game, as shown by the scoreline, but Wales were completely devoid of ideas in the face of the English defence in the second half, and only added 3 points to their half-time score, despite having the better of the third quarter. That wasn't good enough, and meant England were always within a score.

by Luckless Pedestrian Fri Mar 10, 2017 3:10 pm

SecretFly wrote:What did he say Luckless? Do you want us to throw you on a rack and turn the damn wheels? Tell us what he said! Don't leave us in suspense. This is getting nervy now. The Welsh have a secret failsafe plan?

We have a plan, but it's neither secret nor fail-safe.

by **seanmichaels** Fri Mar 10, 2017 8:01 pm

The welsh love bigging up a Friday night home tie

by Scottrf Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:54 pm

GunsGermsV2 wrote:I think Ireland are going to get a try bonus point win v Wales.

by Rory_Gallagher Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:15 pm

Lol. I'm assuming Guns was having a laugh.

by SecretFly Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:56 pm

Rory_Gallagher wrote:Lol. I'm assuming Guns was having a laugh.

Well if he was...he ain't laughing now.

by SecretFly Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:01 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
SecretFly wrote:What did he say Luckless? Do you want us to throw you on a rack and turn the damn wheels? Tell us what he said! Don't leave us in suspense. This is getting nervy now. The Welsh have a secret failsafe plan?

We have a plan, but it's neither secret nor fail-safe.

Well the plan worked

.... perfectly.

by Gwlad Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:05 am

Biggest game in Scottish rugby history tomorrow. And they'd better step up because its there for the taking.

by TightHEAD Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:30 am

Once in a generation chance for Scotland....... Well until next year or vote!

by Gwlad Sat Mar 11, 2017 6:20 pm

Gwlad wrote:Biggest game in Scottish rugby history tomorrow. And they'd better step up because its there for the taking.

by Rugbyjk Sat Mar 11, 2017 6:21 pm

Fair play Gwlad.

by Heaf Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:14 am

poor Guns predictions didn't pan out too well either - although to be fair I think the scoreline today caught everyone by surprise ....

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