Rome

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Interesting draw.

Murray v Fognini round 2
Dimitrov v Del Potro round 1
Djokovic v Kyrgios round 3

Murray/Stan in top half. Djokovic/Nadal in bottom half.
Projected qf
Murray v Raonic
Stan v Cilic
Nadal v Thiem
Djokovic v Nishikori

Well Kei did beat Djoko, the then no.1 player, at the USO SF in 2014, but he lost in the final to an inspired Cilic.

To be fair to Kei, Raonic's batch of players, they usually had to go through a draw where they would meet and had to beat two of those big four guys, when those big guys were making the SFs and Fs of the big events most if not all the times; the USO2014 was special as we had Kei beating Djoko and Cilic beating Fed in the two SFs, so the finalists need not beat two big four guys in a row.

These days, with Djoko and Murray 'slumping' and Fed not playing on clay, chances of other players making it to the SFs and finals are higher - ARV making it to MC final beating a slumping Murray along the way; Thiem also beat Murray along the way to his Barcelona final; Zverev need not face a big four member until the final of Rome; Thiem too at Madrid until the final.

I think the Zverev/Kyrgios/Thiem generation is very quickly overtaking the Raonic/Nishikori/Dimitrov generation...so they will be best placed to take over winning the big titles when they start becoming available.

Im hoping someone even younger will burst onto the scene and take us all by surprise.. one can only live in hope

It's a long season, though. Thiem, for example, did particularly well in the first half of 2016, before fading. Also, after the French we should have all the big four playing together for a few weeks, with - hopefully - Murray doing better. Their presence should give us a better understanding where the up-and-comers are at.
  At least Zverev has ruined my prediction of all the big titles going to 30-somethings this season, although Djoko would have been under-30 (just) if he'd won yesterday.
   I think somebody on this site came out some time ago with the remarkable stat that Djoko had been the youngest winner of any 1,000-pointer for something like the last seven or eight years. Incredible.

sirfredperry wrote:It's a long season, though. Thiem, for example, did particularly well in the first half of 2016, before fading. Also, after the French we should have all the big four playing together for a few weeks, with - hopefully - Murray doing better. Their presence should give us a better understanding where the up-and-comers are at.
  At least Zverev has ruined my prediction of all the big titles going to 30-somethings this season, although Djoko would have been under-30 (just) if he'd won yesterday.
   I think somebody on this site came out some time ago with the remarkable stat that Djoko had been the youngest winner of any 1,000-pointer for something like the last seven or eight years. Incredible.

Zverev was the youngest first time winner of a masters since Djokovic himself in 2007. I think.

Cilic was the youngest winner of a Masters, in 2016 at Cindy (age 27) before Zverev at Rome this year.

Thiem was unfortunate to meet and to be stopped by Rafa at the Madrid final. If not for Rafa, he might have won a Masters title already. I even think that had Thiem played like he did in the QF match at Rome, he would have a good chance vs Djoko in the SF. In that QF, he was serving big and hitting really hard, not missing much, and was willing to hit his big FH instead of camping at his BH corner to hit CC BH all night long (vs Djoko in the SF). He was also hitting some great BHDTL shots too. I mean, if Zverev was serving big and attacking from both wings CC and DTL to trouble Djoko, I don't see why Thiem won't have a chance if he could play like his QF match, when facing Djoko. It's just that Thiem was running on fumes playing at Rome ( he said it himself, he was tired after the Querrey match and was surprised he could play so well vs Rafa - Rafa I feel wasnt any fresher than Thiem and that helps.) Thiem said he was empty and so playing against a player like Djoko, getting the 6-1,6-0 beating was to be expected.

I mean Cincy 2016. What I meant was that before Cilic, non of the others who won the masters in the last few years were younger than Cilic - big four, Stan, Ferrer, Tsonga all are/were older than Cilic.

Sascha the champion Germany's been waiting for far too long. Might stick €100 on him winning Roland Garros

He deserves to have his name out in the mix as favourites

However I would say that there is often a short term drop in form after a big breakthrough as guys adjust to their new status, and people start gunning for them 

It's important to give him room to keep growing, and not turn on him if he has a disappointing rg (which he might). Or if he falls short against a big gun

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Cilic was the youngest winner of a Masters, in 2016 at Cindy (age 27) before Zverev at Rome this year.

Thiem was unfortunate to meet and to be stopped by Rafa at the Madrid final.  If not for Rafa, he might have won a Masters title already.  I even think that had Thiem played like he did in the QF match at Rome, he would have a good chance vs Djoko in the SF.  In that QF, he was serving big and hitting really hard, not missing much, and was willing to hit his big FH instead of camping at his BH corner to hit CC BH all night long (vs Djoko in the SF).  He was also hitting some great BHDTL shots too.  I mean, if Zverev was serving big and attacking from both wings CC and DTL to trouble Djoko, I don't see why Thiem won't have a chance if he could play like his QF match, when facing Djoko.  It's just that Thiem was running on fumes playing at Rome ( he said it himself, he was tired after the Querrey match and was surprised he could play so well vs Rafa - Rafa I feel wasnt any fresher than Thiem and that helps.) Thiem said he was empty and so playing against a player like Djoko, getting the 6-1,6-0 beating was to be expected.

Think Djokovic is a bad match up for Thiem. He takes the ball early and doesn't give Thiem time to wind up his big swings. Rafa tends to stand further back than Djokovic which gives Thiem more time.

That said, I think Djokovic played very well and Thiem not well at all in the semi final.

Certainly makes RG a bit interesting. In theory Rafa could lose to Djokovic or Thiem and perhaps even Zverev.

Zverev was 20/1 last night on betfair. Same price as Murray.

Certainly makes RG a bit interesting. In theory Rafa could lose to Djokovic or Thiem and perhaps even Zverev.

Well as sure as God made little green apples.. that covers all the possibilities at any rate lol
but we are talking  RG and 5 SETS at that

Haddie-nuff wrote:Certainly makes RG a bit interesting. In theory Rafa could lose to Djokovic or Thiem and perhaps even Zverev.

Well as sure as God made little green apples.. that covers all the possibilities at any rate lol
but we are talking  RG and 5 SETS at that

After Madrid I would have been quite sure he wouldn't have lost to any of them. He'll still start as favourite against any of them, but it is slightly more competitive now IMO.

Guest I have ALWAYS maintained that a GS is like the Grand National.. its anyone's race. How many times does the favourite win??? so many things can, and do, happen in a GS. Theorising, is, in my view, a total waste of time. So many obstacles stand in the way of Rafa, i.e. luck of the draw, injury, fatigue and God knows what else. I would not put money on him, or any other player come to that. It only takes a QF (i.e. Boris Becker) to play lights out tennis against an off form, Novak, Rafa, Andy or any other 'would be champion' and the whole picture changes.
On paper yes, he may well be favourite, BUT. The young guns have a lot to prove in what could be two  weeks of 5 set matches

Guest, Thiem plays a similar game as Stan, and Stan too takes a bigger swing but somehow Stan isn't affected by Djoko's rushing him! So, it's not a matter of match up, it's a matter of how Thiem plays vs Djoko. Thiem hits hard from both wings, not unlike Stan. He has the game to trouble Djoko if he maintains the power and depth of his shots like Stan does to Djoko.

It's obvious Thiem was gassed during the SF; his serve wasn't as big as when he played against Rafa the previous day; he wasn't attacking from both wings but only hit CC BH almost all the time. Thiem like Stan is a hard hitter and as long as he maintains the depth of his shots, he can push Djoko back and not be rushed so that may give himself time for his bigger swings. As I mentioned, the Thiem that played in the QF would give Djoko plenty of problems in the SF, that Thiem came out all guns blazing, unlike the one in the SF.

Djoko doesn't like big hitting guys like Stan and Delpo, he won't be liking Zverev and Thiem too if those two come out all guns blazing.

Bit surprised by that, I thought Djokovic would win it, or maybe Thiem. Players like Zverev they look like the next big thing, and then they don't improve for 6 months or a year and you think maybe not and then they surge on again. A lot of players have this kind of trajectory.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Guest, Thiem plays a similar game as Stan, and Stan too takes a bigger swing but somehow Stan isn't affected by Djoko's rushing him!  So, it's not a matter of match up, it's a matter of how Thiem plays vs Djoko.  Thiem hits hard from both wings, not unlike Stan.  He has the game to trouble Djoko if he maintains the power and depth of his shots like Stan does to Djoko.

It's obvious Thiem was gassed during the SF; his serve wasn't as big as when he played against Rafa the previous day; he wasn't attacking from both wings but only hit CC BH almost all the time.  Thiem like Stan is a hard hitter and as long as he maintains the depth of his shots, he can push Djoko back and not be rushed so that may give himself time for his bigger swings.  As I mentioned, the Thiem that played in the QF would give Djoko plenty of problems in the SF, that Thiem came out all guns blazing, unlike the one in the SF.

Djoko doesn't like big hitting guys like Stan and Delpo, he won't be liking Zverev and Thiem too if those two come out all guns blazing.

I think Stan does struggle with the match up, but when he is "on" he has the power and consistency to hit through even Djokovic, therefore forcing him back, which then gives him more time to wind up the swings etc. Stan has a poor H2H overall against Djokovic.

I don't think Thiem did himself justice though. He played Djokovic in Miami (I think) last year and was probably the better player - got routined on paper - but created something like 20 break points and didn't take any!

Actually, after Stan becomes Stanimal, i.e. from AO2014 onwards, he's 3-5 vs Djoko, and, he won all their slam encounters - 3 for 3, once in each year from 2014 to 2016, whilst Djoko won their BO3 matches. He pushed Djoko to five sets at AO and USO 2013 before winning his first slam in 2014 AO.

I feel Thiem could be following in Stan's footsteps, after all, they're playing a similar style and Thiem, after saving MPs after MPs (vs Dimi and vs Querrey), I feel now has the mental strength to see him through tough crucial moments in his matches.

Ok Djoko did win at AO2015 SF but was won in five sets!

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Actually, after Stan becomes Stanimal, i.e. from AO2014 onwards, he's 3-5 vs Djoko, and, he won all their slam encounters - 3 for 3, once in each year from 2014 to 2016, whilst Djoko won their BO3 matches. He pushed Djoko to five sets at AO and USO 2013 before winning his first slam in 2014 AO.

I feel Thiem could be following in Stan's footsteps, after all, they're playing a similar style and Thiem, after saving MPs after MPs (vs Dimi and vs Querrey), I feel now has the mental strength to see him through tough crucial moments in his matches.

I really hope so with Thiem. Think he will be more of a clay specialist generally, but he had some success on grass last season (including a win over Fed). Although one thing doing it against Querrey and Dimitrov and another against Djokovic and Nadal.