Who will be Number 2 Seed at Wimbledon?

With Rafa's win today, he has a 1,480 point lead over Novak (who is actually down to 4th). However, Wimbledon has a special seeding system, adding 100% of grass points in the last year plus 75% of the best grass result the previous year. Effectively, as I understand it, it's 100% of points from Wim 2016 plus any points from warm up events this year and then the best grass court score from Wim 2015 and the warm up events in 2016.

What that means is that Novak currently has 1,590 points (1,500 points for 2015 Wimbledon win plus 90 points for R3 2016 Wimbledon). In contrast, Rafa has about 34 points (75% of R2 2015 Wimbledon points) as he missed all last year. That means Novak has about that 80 points lead after grass court bonus. Nadal is due to play Queens. So far as I'm aware, Novak isn't playing any events. Given that any points gained will be doubled, I think that means Rafa will only need one win - which will gain him 45 points (90 points after grass court seeding increase).

Very likely that the Wimbledon seeding will be (1) Andy, (2) Rafa, (3) Novak and (4) Federer (with a huge grass court point gain over the currently higher ranked Stan).

I wouldn't be surprised if Djokovic would take a wild card into a grass warm-up event and pick up some points to secure his #2 seeding at Wimbledon.

If I wa Nadal I'd skip Wimbledon and focus on a third championship in New York and further forward that elusive ATP world tour finals championship

@BS - That's bang on, the race for #2 between Nadal and Djoko is close, but you've got to expect Nadal to do it; and Federer is very strong favourite to get #4 ahead of Wawrinka with 1,600 points from the last two Wimbledon tournaments and the odd hundred from lesser tournaments.  You'd not ordinarily expect Wawrinka to overtake him in two grass court tournaments.

It will be fascinating to see if Federer can recapture his early season form, and if Nadal's resurgence this year continues at Wimbledon on grass - his (relative) decline there started well before his more recent travails with injury, and he's already played 50 matches this year.

Having found some form recently Murray has got to reckon that he's in with a real chance again this year.

barrystar wrote:@BS - That's bang on, the race for #2 between Nadal and Djoko is close, but you've got to expect Nadal to do it; and Federer is very strong favourite to get #4 ahead of Wawrinka with 1,600 points from the last two Wimbledon tournaments and the odd hundred from lesser tournaments.  You'd not ordinarily expect Wawrinka to overtake him in two grass court tournaments.

It will be fascinating to see if Federer can recapture his early season form, and if Nadal's resurgence this year continues at Wimbledon on grass - his (relative) decline there started well before his more recent travails with injury, and he's already played 50 matches this year.

Having found some form recently Murray has got to reckon that he's in with a real chance again this year.

Wimbledon is very hard to call. Tough to see Novak suddenly finding form on his worst surface but there is a case to be made for the rest of the big 4. Kyrgios suddenly is a live contender as well and even Raonic and Cilic are much more dangerous.

Just thinking about this again, might it actually be Fed who takes the number 2 seed? He's about 1,000 points down on Novak with grass court bonus accounted for. If he were to win Halle, that could bump him above Novak and possibly Rafa.

Probably not difference for Djokovic - he'll be avoiding Murray yet playing Fed in semi-finals or vice versca. Sounds like a rock and a hard place.

Guest82 wrote:Probably not difference for Djokovic - he'll be avoiding Murray yet playing Fed in semi-finals or vice versca.   Sounds like a rock and a hard place.

Being #2 seeds means he is 100% sure to avoid Murray until the final and has a 50% chance to avoid Federer as well.
Rafa is the big question mark however: it's been 7 years since his last successful Wimbledon, but he looks fully fit and obviously supremely confident right now... Would Djokovic prefer to be in Rafa's half?

I'm hoping for a draw that puts Djokovic against Kyrgios in R4!

prostaff85 wrote:

Guest82 wrote:Probably not difference for Djokovic - he'll be avoiding Murray yet playing Fed in semi-finals or vice versca.   Sounds like a rock and a hard place.

Being #2 seeds means he is 100% sure to avoid Murray until the final and has a 50% chance to avoid Federer as well.
Rafa is the big question mark however: it's been 7 years since his last successful Wimbledon, but he looks fully fit and obviously supremely confident right now... Would Djokovic prefer to be in Rafa's half?

I'm hoping for a draw that puts Djokovic against Kyrgios in R4!

I think Rafa could be anything at Wimbledon. I can see him losing first round to a Dustin Brown type or winning the whole thing without dropping a set.

Djokovic will likely get through a few rounds and lose R4/QF provided he avoids anyone too dangerous early on.

Right now a Djokovic/Nadal half would seem a lot weaker than a Federer/Murray half.

With Rafa withdrawing from Queens, he's guaranteed to be seeded below Novak at Queens. However, having looked into it, both Federer and Stan can potentially leap frog them both, depending on their results pre Wimbledon.

Stan needs to win Queens - if he does he will overtake both Rafa and Novak in the seedlings. Fed needs to win Halle OR win Stuttgart and make the final in Halle to overtake Rafa and Novak. If he outscores Stan by c. 100 points he will also get past him.

My prediction for the Wimbledon seedlings is:

1. Murray
2. Fed
3. Novak
4. Rafa
5. Stan

number 1 and 2 are in different half, then its a question of luck who they play between 3 or 4

seeing that murray is number 1 for sure, its a matter of being in murray´s half or not

number 2 avoids murray in the semifinal, and gets 3 or 4

so if nadal were 2 (he is not going to be) he would get federer or djokovic in semis
if nadal was 3 or 4, he would get murray or djokovic or federer in semis....

dont see a big difference really
other thing would be if Nole didnt make it to spot 4 and it were wawrinka instead

BS, how do you get that Stan would leapfrog both Djoko and Rafa for the Wimbledon seeding? Stan has 6175 points now; even if he wins at Queens, he'll get to 6675 points, add in 45 from last year Wim, and 75% of 360 of 2015 Wim, he'll only have 6990 points, still behind Rafa's 7319 and Djoko's 7395 if both don't play any pre Wim warm up.

Born Slippy wrote:With Rafa's win today, he has a 1,480 point lead over Novak (who is actually down to 4th). However, Wimbledon has a special seeding system, adding 100% of grass points in the last year plus 75% of the best grass result the previous year. Effectively, as I understand it, it's 100% of points from Wim 2016 plus any points from warm up events this year and then the best grass court score from Wim 2015 and the warm up events in 2016.

What that means is that Novak currently has 1,590 points (1,500 points for 2015 Wimbledon win plus 90 points for R3 2016 Wimbledon). In contrast, Rafa has about 34 points (75% of R2 2015 Wimbledon points) as he missed all last year. That means Novak has about that 80 points lead after grass court bonus. Nadal is due to play Queens. So far as I'm aware, Novak isn't playing any events. Given that any points gained will be doubled, I think that means Rafa will only need one win - which will gain him 45 points (90 points after grass court seeding increase).

Very likely that the Wimbledon seeding will be (1) Andy, (2) Rafa, (3) Novak and (4) Federer (with a huge grass court point gain over the currently higher ranked Stan).

question:

you are counting 75% of nadal´s wimbledon 2015 points. what about his stuttgart win in 2015? does that not count considering the formula?

this is a crucial point as it would mean djokovic being ahead of nadal if stuttgart 2015 doesnt count... and thus would most probably result in nadal ending as number 4 seed, as we all expect federer to gain more than 500 points prior to wimbledon

it seems that nadal can only expect to be 3 or 4 anyway, no way he could go lower than 4

Belovedluckyboy wrote:BS, how do you get that Stan would leapfrog both Djoko and Rafa for the Wimbledon seeding? Stan has 6175 points now; even if he wins at Queens, he'll get to  6675 points, add in 45 from last year Wim, and 75% of 360 of 2015 Wim, he'll only have 6990 points, still behind Rafa's 7319 and Djoko's 7395 if both don't play any pre Wim warm up.

Stan has 6175 points. He gains 500 points in real ranking points if he wins Queens (0 points last year). He also gains 500 more "seeding" points from that win as grass points gained within the 12 months before Wimbledon are doubled. He would therefore move to 7490 I believe (assuming your figures are right - I haven't re-checked).

Naxroy - my understanding is that the "best" result will run from Wimbledon 2015 and take into account any grass event between them and Wimbledon 2016. Stuttgart 15 is too early.

I thought it was real ranking on monday prior to wimbledon + 100% grass points in 2016 + 75% grass points in 2015

if it werent like that, it would meant that points in grass this season count double, so winning halle counts more than being semifinalist in wimbledon 2016... doesnt seem quite fair really

The phrase used is "in the last 12 months", so I'm pretty sure my analysis is right. Otherwise, you would be getting no uplift at all for having just won Halle/Queens.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Rafa pull out of Wimbledon. I think he doesn't rate his chances of winning and why should he risk his knees

i.e. a bit like Roger, missing out the 'weak' slam, could add literally a couple more years to their career

Roger or Andy for me, with the Swiss maestro been favourite. You need to be fit and confident and it to be one of your favoured surfaces - so let's go for the two players who have arguably been the best performers on grass in the last five years

And yes, I'm aware of Novak winning two out of the last three - but I still think when everyone is at their best, he's third to these two on grass

I'd love a Roger / Andy final - think it would be a cracker as I think both would be relaxed about losing and hence not afraid to go for the win

in that case nadal is already behind djokovic, so at best he could enter wimbledon as #3

the moment Federer gains 240 points he will surpass rafa too

wawrinka would need a win in queens to overpass Nadal

so it seems Nadal will be 4

BS, I doubt they would double count this year's points on grass before Wimbledon.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:BS, I doubt they would double count this year's points on grass before Wimbledon.

The whole point is to reward recent grass court pedigree. It would be entirely counter-productive to double points from last year's Wimbledon and ignore the even more recent form this year. The wording seems to me to be clear that double counting this year's points is exactly what they will do.

Anyway it doesn't matter whether Rafa is no.3 or no.4; Stan won't win at Queens anyway, so he's at best seeded as no.5.

Agreed!

There is a site that keeps track of various 'live' rankings, including the Wimbledon seeding:

http://openerarankings.com/home?Race=3

Federer is currently ranked #5 but only needs to outperform Wawrinka slightly to overtake him - he may be able to do so already this week in Stuttgart.

Despite Nadal's utter dominance at RG, I believe Federer would prefer to be in Rafa's half at Wimbledon thus avoiding Murray and Djokovic until the final. This would require a #2 seeding AND some luck with the draw.

Interesting that the top 5 five players in the world are in their 30s now.

prostaff85 wrote:Federer is currently ranked #5 but only needs to outperform Wawrinka slightly to overtake him - he may be able to do so already this week in Stuttgart.

Ahem...
Though Federer probably won't lose too much sleep over this loss to Haas, there is now a little more pressure on his Halle performance! I believe he must win at least two matches to even have a chance to overtake Wawrinka, and if Stan does well at Queens Federer will need to go deep or even win in Halle! Also Raonic has a remote chance to overtake Federer but would need to win Queens.

Henman Bill wrote:Interesting that the top 5 five players in the world are in their 30s now.

If my counting is correct, 44 of the top 100 are currently over 30. I wonder if it's ever been above 50%?

prostaff85 wrote:There is a site that keeps track of various 'live' rankings, including the Wimbledon seeding:

http://openerarankings.com/home?Race=3

first of all, thanks so much, I had been looking for something like this and found nothing
I had lots of doubts regarding the method, as it could be seen in this thread.

so correct me if I am wrong, but this is the scenario I see:

- murray number 1 for sure
- djokovic number 2, unless wawrinka wins queens in which case he would be 3rd (lets see if nole finally plays next week)
- Nadal 3rd unless wawrinka or federer win either queens or halle, in which case nadal would be 4th (if they both win, nadal would be 5th)
- Wawrinka could jump to number 2 winning queens
- Federer could jump to number 3 winning halle, or 4 if warinka does win queens too

If Fed wins Halle, what is his seed?

3

prostaff85 wrote:Though Federer probably won't lose too much sleep over this loss to Haas, there is now a little more pressure on his Halle performance! I believe he must win at least two matches to even have a chance to overtake Wawrinka, and if Stan does well at Queens Federer will need to go deep or even win in Halle! Also Raonic has a remote chance to overtake Federer but would need to win Queens.

Stan and Raonic are out so one more win will secure Federer's top 4 seeding at Wimbledon. He will face Mischa Zverev who's playing pretty well at the moment so Federer will need to be 100% focused!

naxroy wrote:3

I thought it makes him second seed?

Fed loses his chance to be seeded at no.2 at Wimbledon the moment he lost in R1 at Stuttgart. If he wins Halle, he will have 7385 seeding points, Djoko has 7395 so Djoko is still ahead of Fed. Fed has to reach at least the QF in Halle to stay ahead of Stan, and if he doesn't win the title after that, he'll be seeded no.4 behind Rafa who has 7319 seeding points.

I think I'm right that Stan's 1st rd loss at Queens means that Federer needs to beat Mischa Zverev at Halle to confirm #4 seed (their 3-0 H2H including a double bagel at Halle for Fed in 2013 means it would be a shock if Zverev won).  If that happens, whatever else the draw would look like, Fed or Nadal would be seeded respectively to meet one of Djoko or Murray in the SF and each other in the F.

Federer, Nadal, and Murray have all got to be in the conversation, at least to go deep.

Outside them, Raonic lost at Queens yesterday, and I'd think Cilic, Kyrgios, and Dimitrov should be reckoning they at least have the game to do something this year - hardy perennials like Tsonga (decent 1st 6 months), Isner or Querrey, are worth avoiding in the draw although their rankings mean that whoever of the top 4 they may face will be well played into the tournament.

All of the big 4 look vulnerable. Any of them could lose early. I would be surprised if they all made the QFs.

However, while I expect one or two of them at least to have disappointing exits possibly at an early stage you would not expect all 4 of them to do so.

The chances are that at least one of them will still be standing in the final and probably win the title.