6N 2018: Wales v Scotland, 3 February

First topic message reminder :



WALES v SCOTLAND
3 February 2018
KO: 14:15 GMT
Principality Stadium, Cardiff

Live on [ITV, RTE, SC4, FR2, DMAX / BBC (H)]

Referee: Pascal Gaüzère (France)
Assistant 1: Romain Poite (France)
Assistant 2: Matthew Carley (England)
TMO: David Grashoff (England)

A. Head to Head

122 Played 122
70 Won 49
3 Drawn 3
49 Lost 70
1,624 Points 1,263

B. Recent Form

9 March 2013
Murrayfield, Edinburgh
18–28 to Wales

15 March 2014
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
51–3 to Wales

15 February 2015
Murrayfield, Edinburgh
23–26 to Wales

13 February 2016
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
27–23 to Wales

25 February 2017
Murrayfield, Edinburgh
29–13 to Scotland

C. Teams

WALES 

Leigh Halfpenny (Scarlets); Josh Adams (Worcester), Scott Williams (Scarlets), Hadleigh Parkes (Scarlets), Steff Evans (Scarlets); Rhys Patchell (Scarlets), Gareth Davies (Scarlets); Rob Evans (Scarlets), Ken Owens (Scarlets), Samson Lee (Scarlets), Cory Hill (Dragons), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys, capt), Aaron Shingler (Scarlets), Josh Navidi (Cardiff Blues), Ross Moriarty (Gloucester).

Replacements: Elliot Dee (Dragons), Wyn Jones (Scarlets), Tomas Francis (Exeter Chiefs), Bradley Davies (Ospreys), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Aled Davies (Scarlets), Gareth Anscombe (Cardiff Blues), Owen Watkin (Ospreys).

SCOTLAND

Stuart Hogg (Glasgow Warriors); Tommy Seymour (Glasgow Warriors), Chris Harris (Newcastle Falcons), Huw Jones (Glasgow Warriors), Byron McGuigan (Sale Sharks); Finn Russell (Glasgow Warriors), Ali Price (Glasgow Warriors); Gordon Reid (London Irish), Stuart McInally (Edinburgh), Jon Welsh (Newcastle Falcons), Ben Toolis (Edinburgh), Jonny Gray, John Barclay (Scarlets, captain), Hamish Watson (Edinburgh), Cornell du Preez (Edinburgh).

Replacements: Scott Lawson (Newcastle Falcons), Jamie Bhatti (Glasgow Warriors), Murray McCallum (Edinburgh), Grant Gilchrist (Edinburgh), Ryan Wilson (Glasgow Warriors), Greig Laidlaw (Clermont Auvergne), Pete Horne (Glasgow Warriors), Sean Maitland (Saracens).

The Oracle wrote:Scotland have the form, higher world ranking position, better attack, more innovative coach, better bagpipes and a more gender neutral first minister (!) - Scotland for the win

Only because it's very difficult to work out if Nicola is a man or a woman.

George Carlin wrote:

The Oracle wrote:Scotland have the form, higher world ranking position, better attack, more innovative coach, better bagpipes and a more gender neutral first minister (!) - Scotland for the win

Only because it's very difficult to work out if Nicola is a man or a woman.

Apologise or resign! You can't make statements like that these days.

Scottrf wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:Reading on here I think the overconfidence from some Scots is bordering on delusional and arrogant. Where is the confidence coming from exactly?

It's really not. They beat Wales last 6 Nations, did you forget? And Ireland. They beat Australia 53-24 in November. And beat them away from home last year. Last Welsh win vs Australia was 2008. You have to go back to 2005 to find the second Welsh win there, Scotland had 2 last year. They got very close to New Zealand. They are in good form, and Wales are missing some of their big players.

Don't start bringing facts into this Scott. You can prove anything with those bloody things, can't you?

A lot of the Welsh here are trying to run it out that we are insulting them. Let's look at recent history

Too many Welsh players go on Lion's tour. Teams have traditionally struggled after giving players to the Lions in greater number as much as it has reduced over the years. 2 token Scot's go. 1 gets injured early. Can't read much into the Wales tour. Scotland beat Aus away without their entire back 3 and lose to Fiji in Fiji without their back 3 and Russell.

Over November, Wales were a dodgy front row sub away from losing to Georgia, were beaten by Australia after keeping it fairly close and after the first 20-30 minutes NZ put themselves out of reach. They beat an average South Africa that was playing a 2nd row at 7 by 2.

Scotland were defensively horrible against Samoa but scored 40+, were trading blows with Aus before crushing them after the Kepu red and pushed New Zealand to the limit (can go into refereeing, no one cares).

Wales have lost both of their main 10's on the eve of the tournament. They are potentially missing their form back 3 player, their best centre and 2 of their squad's 4 back rows (Warburton and Faletau).

Scotland have a front row crisis. Hence the if they can get scrum parity that is being qualified in my statement.

Scotland have a tendency to score points. It is rare they do not score above 20. Wales struggle to put away red zone pressure (Georgia a great example (NZ game can be ignored; they are a unique challenge)). Wales are missing their best wing and their best carrier.

Last game played was 29-13 with a first choice Wales and Scotland. Scotland are struggling up front and Wales are missing star players across the pitch. Why is it expected Wales are going to be so much better than the last year has shown with all the injuries and the attempt to change the style of play on the fly? The players have arguably got worse in key positions across the pitch. If scrum parity is achieved, Wales losing by a similar scoreline is not unthinkable. It happened last year. If Scotland don't, Scotland struggle.

Anyway, this is the reason why I tend to avoid Welsh threads. If you don't say Wales are going to win then you are insane.

Scottrf wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:Reading on here I think the overconfidence from some Scots is bordering on delusional and arrogant. Where is the confidence coming from exactly?

It's really not. They beat Wales last 6 Nations, did you forget? And Ireland. They beat Australia 53-24 in November. And beat them away from home last year. Last Welsh win vs Australia was 2008. You have to go back to 2005 to find the second Welsh win there, Scotland had 2 last year. They got very close to New Zealand. They are in good form, and Wales are missing some of their big players.

Scotland beat Wales in Scotland, their first win in 10 years.

AIs have no bearing on the Six Nations. Ever. As I said before, Scotland usually get a tidy scalp then fail to back it up when it really matters.

Yes, they beat Aus away but then Aus fell to pieces when they got the red card, it was a close game til then.

Ah, close to NZ, that's still a loss no ?

Hazel Sapling wrote:A lot of the Welsh here are trying to run it out that we are insulting them. Let's look at recent history


Anyway, this is the reason why I tend to avoid Welsh threads. If you don't say Wales are going to win then you are insane.

Talk about blowing it out of proportion. I think what some people take issue with is the insinuation that it is going to be easy for Scotland. Your post yesterday was particularly arrogant. If you have scrum parity and a good pitch then nothing else will be a problem and you'll walk it, was the claim. I haven't seen any Welsh posters say they will definitely win. Pretty much everyone has said they think it might be close. No-one is going crazy or insane either. You seem to be throwing your toys out of the pram because people do not agree with you that Scotland will win with ease.

munkian wrote:

Scottrf wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:Reading on here I think the overconfidence from some Scots is bordering on delusional and arrogant. Where is the confidence coming from exactly?

It's really not. They beat Wales last 6 Nations, did you forget? And Ireland. They beat Australia 53-24 in November. And beat them away from home last year. Last Welsh win vs Australia was 2008. You have to go back to 2005 to find the second Welsh win there, Scotland had 2 last year. They got very close to New Zealand. They are in good form, and Wales are missing some of their big players.

Scotland beat Wales in Scotland, their first win in 10 years.

AIs have no bearing on the Six Nations. Ever. As I said before, Scotland usually get a tidy scalp then fail to back it up when it really matters.

Yes, they beat Aus away but then Aus fell to pieces when they got the red card, it was a close game til then.

Ah, close to NZ, that's still a loss no ?

The previous quote was that predictions for Scots to win was delusional and arrogant. Clearly nonsense.

And asked where the confidence was coming from. Pretty obvious if you watch any rugby outside Wales, which Mikey clearly doesn't.

I'm sure you wish you could get close to NZ.

I'm trying to break the tension on this thread by typing this with my trousers around my ankles. 

Probably a mistake in a restaurant.

The Oracle wrote:

Hazel Sapling wrote:A lot of the Welsh here are trying to run it out that we are insulting them. Let's look at recent history


Anyway, this is the reason why I tend to avoid Welsh threads. If you don't say Wales are going to win then you are insane.

Talk about blowing it out of proportion.  I think what some people take issue with is the insinuation that it is going to be easy for Scotland.  Your post yesterday was particularly arrogant.  If you have scrum parity and a good pitch then nothing else will be a problem and you'll walk it, was the claim.  I haven't seen any Welsh posters say they will definitely win.  Pretty much everyone has said they think it might be close.  No-one is going crazy or insane either.  You seem to be throwing your toys out of the pram because people do not agree with you that Scotland will win with ease.    

To be fair you are doing exactly the same thing as this is what Hazel actually said!

Same HS. All we need is scrum parity and a good pitch.

I don't know what else of Bru's are allowed to be nailed to the mast but will go

Wales 19 - 34 Scotland

Do people really put any store in results again 3rd parties as a barometer for how two teams will do against each other? E.g. Scotland beat Aus while Wales didn't therefore Scotland will beat Wales? Scotland lost by less to NZ than Wales did therefore Scotland will beat Wales? It's just silly logic as the same logic can be used to disprove the theory: e.g. Wales beat Ireland by more than Scotland did in the last 6N (much more comfortably) therefore Wales are better than Scotland = ridiculous! Wales lost to England by a much smaller margin last year therefore Wales are better than Scotland = ridiculous! Wales pretty much drew with France away (THAT extra time game!) whereas Scotland lost comfortably to Scotland, therefore Wales are better than Scotland = ridiculous!

Head to head in a previous, recent encounter is the only decent barometer (and even then home advantage is not even). Scotland are better than Wales, and can be considered favourites, because they beat wales last time they met. Whether it will be a walk over remains to be seen and I think that given the history and results it would be difficult to argue that Scotland will walk it away to Wales, even if they do have scrum parity and a decent pitch. Win it, perhaps. But easy? However, how each did against a 3rd team seems to be a silly way of evaluating the two against each other. It's rarely been an accurate measure.

RDW_Scotland wrote:

The Oracle wrote:

Hazel Sapling wrote:A lot of the Welsh here are trying to run it out that we are insulting them. Let's look at recent history


Anyway, this is the reason why I tend to avoid Welsh threads. If you don't say Wales are going to win then you are insane.

Talk about blowing it out of proportion.  I think what some people take issue with is the insinuation that it is going to be easy for Scotland.  Your post yesterday was particularly arrogant.  If you have scrum parity and a good pitch then nothing else will be a problem and you'll walk it, was the claim.  I haven't seen any Welsh posters say they will definitely win.  Pretty much everyone has said they think it might be close.  No-one is going crazy or insane either.  You seem to be throwing your toys out of the pram because people do not agree with you that Scotland will win with ease.    

To be fair you are doing exactly the same thing as this is what Hazel actually said!

Same HS. All we need is scrum parity and a good pitch.

I don't know what else of Bru's are allowed to be nailed to the mast but will go

Wales 19 - 34 Scotland

Possibly, to prove the point that he was blowing it out of proportion in the first place!

I guess the results against 3rd parties goes to answer the point about where the confidence is coming from, as one poster asked earlier. I’m not saying it’s a barometer of how the game will go, only that Scotland have been on a decent run of late, and winning breeds confidence. Something we have been lacking for long enough (wins and confidence).

I don’t think it’s arrogance for some posters (on either side) thinking their team will win or win well, as there is a compelling argument for either side to click and tear the other team apart. Personally I don’t think that will happen and I think it will be a close scrappy game, won by a score or two max, but until it actually happens it’s all just opinions at this stage.

Obviously I’m hopeful of a Scotland win, I don’t think it’s guaranteed by any stretch of the imagination though. Heart says Scotland by 20 (I’m Scottish, my heart has taken a battering (pun very much intended) from my dietary choices and is not to be trusted), but my head says Wales will edge it.

The Oracle wrote:Do people really put any store in results again 3rd parties as a barometer for how two teams will do against each other?  E.g. Scotland beat Aus while Wales didn't therefore Scotland will beat Wales?  Scotland lost by less to NZ than Wales did therefore Scotland will beat Wales?  It's just silly logic as the same logic can be used to disprove the theory: e.g. Wales beat Ireland by more than Scotland did in the last 6N (much more comfortably) therefore Wales are better than Scotland = ridiculous!  Wales lost to England by a much smaller margin last year therefore Wales are better than Scotland = ridiculous!  Wales pretty much drew with France away (THAT extra time game!) whereas Scotland lost comfortably to Scotland, therefore Wales are better than Scotland = ridiculous!

Head to head in a previous, recent encounter is the only decent barometer (and even then home advantage is not even).  Scotland are better than Wales, and can be considered favourites, because they beat wales last time they met.  Whether it will be a walk over remains to be seen and I think that given the history and results it would be difficult to argue that Scotland will walk it away to Wales, even if they do have scrum parity and a decent pitch.  Win it, perhaps.  But easy?  However, how each did against a 3rd team seems to be a silly way of evaluating the two against each other.  It's rarely been an accurate measure.

Of course not in isolation but they build a picture of who is playing better.

Otherwise just because New Zealand haven't played Namibia recently you wouldn't be able to predict the winner?

Scottrf wrote:

The Oracle wrote:Do people really put any store in results again 3rd parties as a barometer for how two teams will do against each other?  E.g. Scotland beat Aus while Wales didn't therefore Scotland will beat Wales?  Scotland lost by less to NZ than Wales did therefore Scotland will beat Wales?  It's just silly logic as the same logic can be used to disprove the theory: e.g. Wales beat Ireland by more than Scotland did in the last 6N (much more comfortably) therefore Wales are better than Scotland = ridiculous!  Wales lost to England by a much smaller margin last year therefore Wales are better than Scotland = ridiculous!  Wales pretty much drew with France away (THAT extra time game!) whereas Scotland lost comfortably to Scotland, therefore Wales are better than Scotland = ridiculous!

Head to head in a previous, recent encounter is the only decent barometer (and even then home advantage is not even).  Scotland are better than Wales, and can be considered favourites, because they beat wales last time they met.  Whether it will be a walk over remains to be seen and I think that given the history and results it would be difficult to argue that Scotland will walk it away to Wales, even if they do have scrum parity and a decent pitch.  Win it, perhaps.  But easy?  However, how each did against a 3rd team seems to be a silly way of evaluating the two against each other.  It's rarely been an accurate measure.

Of course not in isolation but they build a picture of who is playing better.

Otherwise just because New Zealand haven't played Namibia recently you wouldn't be able to predict the winner?

True. But can you confidently predict the winner of NZ v England by their margins of victories against Wales? It becomes a lottery!

Just to add, I find it baffling that people sometimes use club form to predict international form too. Scarlets are doing well in Europe so Wales will do well? Wtf?! Glasgow were gash in Europe this year so Scotland will be pants? Rubbish!

What is going on here???????

Are we now not allowed to make a prediction any more without being based as delusional?

Most people are saying it is likely to be close, but if they let their heart have a go, hope for a comfortable win

This complete over reaction to people making a prediction on a discussion forum is a little #sad

The Oracle wrote:True.  But can you confidently predict the winner of NZ v England by their margins of victories against Wales?  It becomes a lottery!

It's just an extra piece of information to base judgments on. I've predicted Wales to win. But to act like Scotland fans are deluded for thinking they will win?

R!skysports wrote:What is going on here???????

Are we now not allowed to make a prediction any more without being based as delusional?

Most people are saying it is likely to be close, but if they let their heart have a go, hope for a comfortable win

This complete over reaction to people making a prediction on a discussion forum is a little #sad

I agree actually. It seems the Welsh are delusional if they predict it will be close or that they might sneak a win due to home advantage!

Scottrf wrote:

The Oracle wrote:True.  But can you confidently predict the winner of NZ v England by their margins of victories against Wales?  It becomes a lottery!

It's just an extra piece of information to base judgments on. I've predicted Wales to win. But to act like Scotland fans are deluded for thinking they will win?

Who's acting that way?  Me?

Hazel Sapling wrote:A lot of the Welsh here are trying to run it out that we are insulting them. Let's look at recent history

Too many Welsh players go on Lion's tour. Teams have traditionally struggled after giving players to the Lions in greater number as much as it has reduced over the years. 2 token Scot's go. 1 gets injured early. Can't read much into the Wales tour. Scotland beat Aus away without their entire back 3 and lose to Fiji in Fiji without their back 3 and Russell.

Over November, Wales were a dodgy front row sub away from losing to Georgia, were beaten by Australia after keeping it fairly close and after the first 20-30 minutes NZ put themselves out of reach. They beat an average South Africa that was playing a 2nd row at 7 by 2.

Scotland were defensively horrible against Samoa but scored 40+, were trading blows with Aus before crushing them after the Kepu red and pushed New Zealand to the limit (can go into refereeing, no one cares).

Wales have lost both of their main 10's on the eve of the tournament. They are potentially missing their form back 3 player, their best centre and 2 of their squad's 4 back rows (Warburton and Faletau).

Scotland have a front row crisis. Hence the if they can get scrum parity that is being qualified in my statement.

Scotland have a tendency to score points. It is rare they do not score above 20. Wales struggle to put away red zone pressure (Georgia a great example (NZ game can be ignored; they are a unique challenge)). Wales are missing their best wing and their best carrier.

Last game played was 29-13 with a first choice Wales and Scotland. Scotland are struggling up front and Wales are missing star players across the pitch. Why is it expected Wales are going to be so much better than the last year has shown with all the injuries and the attempt to change the style of play on the fly? The players have arguably got worse in key positions across the pitch. If scrum parity is achieved, Wales losing by a similar scoreline is not unthinkable. It happened last year. If Scotland don't, Scotland struggle.

Anyway, this is the reason why I tend to avoid Welsh threads. If you don't say Wales are going to win then you are insane.

At least you have a choice!

The Oracle wrote:

R!skysports wrote:What is going on here???????

Are we now not allowed to make a prediction any more without being based as delusional?

Most people are saying it is likely to be close, but if they let their heart have a go, hope for a comfortable win

This complete over reaction to people making a prediction on a discussion forum is a little #sad

I agree actually.  It seems the Welsh are delusional if they predict it will be close or that they might sneak a win due to home advantage!

Are you deliberately stirring the pot?? I don't think anyone has said that!

RDW_Scotland wrote:

The Oracle wrote:

R!skysports wrote:What is going on here???????

Are we now not allowed to make a prediction any more without being based as delusional?

Most people are saying it is likely to be close, but if they let their heart have a go, hope for a comfortable win

This complete over reaction to people making a prediction on a discussion forum is a little #sad

I agree actually.  It seems the Welsh are delusional if they predict it will be close or that they might sneak a win due to home advantage!

Are you deliberately stirring the pot??  I don't think anyone has said that!

Risky said it in the post you just quoted! 'Are we now not allowed to make a prediction any more without being based as delusional?'

The Oracle wrote:

RDW_Scotland wrote:

The Oracle wrote:

R!skysports wrote:What is going on here???????

Are we now not allowed to make a prediction any more without being based as delusional?

Most people are saying it is likely to be close, but if they let their heart have a go, hope for a comfortable win

This complete over reaction to people making a prediction on a discussion forum is a little #sad

I agree actually.  It seems the Welsh are delusional if they predict it will be close or that they might sneak a win due to home advantage!

Are you deliberately stirring the pot??  I don't think anyone has said that!

Risky said it in the post you just quoted!  'Are we now not allowed to make a prediction any more without being based as delusional?'

But where has a Scottish fan told a welsh fan they're being delusional by predicting a win?

I'm not sure how this thread has got to this....

RDW_Scotland wrote:I'm not sure how this thread has got to this....

I bet Mikey is sniggering to himself. I should have just ignored it.

Scottrf wrote:

RDW_Scotland wrote:I'm not sure how this thread has got to this....

I bet Mikey is sniggering to himself. I should have just ignored it.

I've been reading these boards for years and note that Mikey is a bit of a wind up merchant! That Hazel Sapling seems to be too, albeit a bit more subtly.

In what will probably be a futile attempt to get this thread back on track about the game rather than who said what and who is or isn’t delusional. I’m going to take a stab at who I think will start for Scotland, if any Welsh fans want to take a punt at your team feel free, I’d be interested in who you think will play 10.

1. Reid
2. McInally
3. Welsh
4. J. Gray
5. Toolis
6. Barclay
7. Watson
8. CDP
9. Price
10. Russell
11. Seymour
12. Dunbar (if fit)
13. Jones
14. Maitland
15. Hogg

Bench
16. Bhatti
17. Cochrane (it'll be Lawson, but I'm hopeful)
18. McCallum
19. Gilchrist
20. Wilson (if fit)
21. Horne
22. McGuigan

Cyril wrote:Wales will win this at a canter. By around 15-20.

and some folk say we Scots are delusional!

I'd like to point out another advantage that Scotland has! Many posters are rightfully saying that Gats should go "full Scarlets" in his backline selection due to the way they are playing right now.

Go for it I say.

Pick those Scarlets.

For our captain is their captain so by all means, pick players he knows inside out

EWT Spoons wrote:In what will probably be a futile attempt to get this thread back on track about the game rather than who said what and who is or isn’t delusional.  I’m going to take a stab at who I think will start for Scotland, if any Welsh fans want to take a punt at your team feel free, I’d be interested in who you think will play 10.

1. Reid
2. McInally
3. Welsh
4. J. Gray
5. Toolis
6. Barclay
7. Watson
8. CDP
9. Price
10. Russell
11. Seymour
12. Dunbar (if fit)
13. Jones
14. Maitland
15. Hogg

Bench
16. Bhatti
17. Cochrane (it'll be Lawson, but I'm hopeful)
18. McCallum
19. Gilchrist
20. Wilson (if fit)
21. Horne
22. McGuigan

Scotland fans so arrogant they think they can win with 22

though I assume you meant to put Laidlaw or Pyrgios on the bench. FWIW I think Wilson will start if fit (possibly Hamilton on bench if he isn't), and Taylor will be involved somewhere (again, if fit).

Scotland fans aren't delusional for thinking they'll win.

But.... a margin of 10 - 34 away from home in the Six Nations is ludicrous and not based on anything grounded in reality.

And basing their predictions on AI performances has no basis on reality either.

Scotland not travelling well in the 6 Nations is a fact, proven further by the fact that they haven't won in Cardiff since the start of the Century.

tigertattie wrote:

Cyril wrote:Wales will win this at a canter. By around 15-20.

and some folk say we Scots are delusional!

I'd like to point out another advantage that Scotland has! Many posters are rightfully saying that Gats should go "full Scarlets" in his backline selection due to the way they are playing right now.

Go for it I say.

Pick those Scarlets.

For our captain is their captain so by all means, pick players he knows inside out

Hugely sure Ken Owens is the Turk Captain ?

And Cyril aint Welsh.

munkian wrote:Scotland fans aren't delusional for thinking they'll win.

But.... a margin of 10 - 34 away from home in the Six Nations is ludicrous and not based on anything grounded in reality.

And basing their predictions on AI performances has no basis on reality either.

Scotland not travelling well in the 6 Nations is a fact, proven further by the fact that they haven't won in Cardiff since the start of the Century.

That doesn't mean that they will never travel well!  

Mad for Chelsea wrote:

EWT Spoons wrote:In what will probably be a futile attempt to get this thread back on track about the game rather than who said what and who is or isn’t delusional.  I’m going to take a stab at who I think will start for Scotland, if any Welsh fans want to take a punt at your team feel free, I’d be interested in who you think will play 10.

1. Reid
2. McInally
3. Welsh
4. J. Gray
5. Toolis
6. Barclay
7. Watson
8. CDP
9. Price
10. Russell
11. Seymour
12. Dunbar (if fit)
13. Jones
14. Maitland
15. Hogg

Bench
16. Bhatti
17. Cochrane (it'll be Lawson, but I'm hopeful)
18. McCallum
19. Gilchrist
20. Wilson (if fit)
21. Horne
22. McGuigan

Scotland fans so arrogant they think they can win with 22

though I assume you meant to put Laidlaw or Pyrgios on the bench. FWIW I think Wilson will start if fit (possibly Hamilton on bench if he isn't), and Taylor will be involved somewhere (again, if fit).

HA! No idea what happened there, I typed that post out in word and something went wrong with the numbering, told me I had 23 players, didn't bother to check. Did seem light on bench options though. But yes Laidlaw would be the missing player.

I left Taylor out as I don't think he'll be fit, but if he is, then it's between him and Dunbar for 12. Taylor could go on the bench as a replacement for McGuigan as he can cover centre and wing, but as I say not sure on his fitness.

The thing is munkian, we had these arguments last year, there were plenty of Welsh fans saying Scotland hadn't beaten them in 10 years, etc., and yet ultimately Scotland ran out fairly comfortable winners. I'm not sure past history really gives you much of an insight here. Having said that, it is I think fair to point out that Scotland's only win away from home of any note in recent times is that (excellent) win in Australia.

Taking Oracle's point further, while both teams' AI performance won't have a direct bearing on the result I think Scotland's history of failure at the MS will have even less so - it's not like those players have played in all those defeats, and a lot of the squad haven't even played at the MS or have only played once or twice at most. The win V Wales last season will certainly have helped get over that mental block of beating Wales, even if it was at home it will make a difference.

2 years ago was very frustrating - Scotland were in control after 60 odd minutes and had put in a good performance, but then completely lost their heads trying to close out the game, something I think we have learned from since. That all started from Laidlaw losing concentration  during a routine lineout in our 22, knocking on, which led to a Wales try from the resulting scrum. Wales then kicked on from there to take the lead and although we got a late try it was too little too late, losing by 4 points. Test matches change on the smallest act and we need to keep mentally focused for the whole game.

It is going to be a real hard test match and both teams will be confident of the win - the bookies have it right that Wales are slight favourites IMO.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

munkian wrote:Scotland fans aren't delusional for thinking they'll win.

But.... a margin of 10 - 34 away from home in the Six Nations is ludicrous and not based on anything grounded in reality.

And basing their predictions on AI performances has no basis on reality either.

Scotland not travelling well in the 6 Nations is a fact, proven further by the fact that they haven't won in Cardiff since the start of the Century.

That doesn't mean that they will never travel well!  

Very true. But it helps to build the picture, as scottrf puts it.

The bookies are WUMs! Ban them.

What people do not take into consideration on here as well is, the fact, that Wales were without their head man in the last 6N and we were left with the useless Howley. Wales were well on top in that first half and were unlucky not to be further in front. Perhaps with Gatland there, the carnage of the second half might not have happened.

Just some food for thought.

LordDowlais wrote:What people do not take into consideration on here as well is, the fact, that Wales were without their head man in the last 6N and we were left with the useless Howley. Wales were well on top in that first half and were unlucky not to be further in front. Perhaps with Gatland there, the carnage of the second half might not have happened.

Just some food for thought.

That's very true. Howley is inarguably inferior to Gatland.

Is Vern Cotter inferior to Gregor Townsend? Mibbes aye mibbes naw.

What I find most interesting is the idea that past performances in the Six Nations (particularly the last match in Cardiff two years ago) are seen as being more relevant to this match than the Autumn tests just two months ago. It's even being suggested (a "fact", apparently) that the Autumn tests are of no relevance whatsoever.

I'm struggling to square that circle, I'll be honest.

RDW_Scotland wrote:Taking Oracle's point further, while both teams' AI performance won't have a direct bearing on the result I think Scotland's history of failure at the MS will have even less so - it's not like those players have played in all those defeats, and a lot of the squad haven't even played at the MS or have only played once or twice at most.

England won in Cardiff in 1963 - then failed to win again until 1991. Now admittedly for much of that time they had the better team, but it was only after the win during the 91 GS season that the players and coaches admitted that the losing streak had an effect. It was brought up in press conferences repeatedly and despite talking the talk, inside players and coaches start to think about it and doubt, even subliminally, appears. If I remember correctly in 91 they completely changed the arrangements before the game, publicly faced up to the losing streak and did something about it (in a positive way unlike 87).

Of course Scotland's streak is not as long, but it will be brought up and it will have an affect especially if the game is close. Wales can point to their AI form in previous seasons and how they often do poorly yet perform well in the 6Ns. At full strength and on neutral ground, I would favour Scotland to win. Not sure what impact injuries will have, but with home advantage I would expect wales to win.

IanBru wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:What people do not take into consideration on here as well is, the fact, that Wales were without their head man in the last 6N and we were left with the useless Howley. Wales were well on top in that first half and were unlucky not to be further in front. Perhaps with Gatland there, the carnage of the second half might not have happened.

Just some food for thought.

That's very true. Howley is inarguably inferior to Gatland.

Is Vern Cotter inferior to Gregor Townsend? Mibbes aye mibbes naw.

What I find most interesting is the idea that past performances in the Six Nations (particularly the last match in Cardiff two years ago) are seen as being more relevant to this match than the Autumn tests just two months ago. It's even being suggested (a "fact", apparently) that the Autumn tests are of no relevance whatsoever.

I'm struggling to square that circle, I'll be honest.

I think what is meant by that comment is that Wales' AI form (and indeed European club rugby form) has never been a predictor of how they'll do in the 6N. That is a fact. Wales have won grand slams weeks after completely bombing in the AIs. Wales have won the 6N when their clubs are all out of Europe by Christmas. So yes, I can see why the autumn series has no relevance (to Wales' 6N showing) because there doesn't appear to be any correlation.

mikey_dragon wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:I think a lot of people will be surprised by the Welsh pack this year.

Ken Owens
Samson Lee
Rob Evans
AWJ
Bradley Davies
Tuperic
Navidi/Shingler
Moriarty

Thats not a bad pack, with a lot of very good replacements on the bench as well.

Dowlais, I don't see much club rugby over here but since they've been reunited I hear AWJ and Davies have been playing very well, doing all the hard stuff up front? With Jake Ball out I think they'd go well behind the Scarlets front row.

If we're expected to have the ascendency at scrum time then Navidi starts at 8 for me, with Shingler/Moriarty at 6 and Tipuric at 7. Backline should be mostly Scarlets although the back 3 is probably a bit predictable with the injuries there. Bench I'm not too concerned about but it should contain hard carriers (Beard) and good backline players (Watkin as opposed to Cuthbert).

The Turk front row battered the Toulon front row last weekend, and James Davies was everywhere, having a back row of Moriarty(6), Tuperic(7) and Navidi(8) looks quite tasty though.

The Oracle wrote:

IanBru wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:What people do not take into consideration on here as well is, the fact, that Wales were without their head man in the last 6N and we were left with the useless Howley. Wales were well on top in that first half and were unlucky not to be further in front. Perhaps with Gatland there, the carnage of the second half might not have happened.

Just some food for thought.

That's very true. Howley is inarguably inferior to Gatland.

Is Vern Cotter inferior to Gregor Townsend? Mibbes aye mibbes naw.

What I find most interesting is the idea that past performances in the Six Nations (particularly the last match in Cardiff two years ago) are seen as being more relevant to this match than the Autumn tests just two months ago. It's even being suggested (a "fact", apparently) that the Autumn tests are of no relevance whatsoever.

I'm struggling to square that circle, I'll be honest.

I think what is meant by that comment is that Wales' AI form (and indeed European club rugby form) has never been a predictor of how they'll do in the 6N.  That is a fact.  Wales have won grand slams weeks after completely bombing in the AIs.  Wales have won the 6N when their clubs are all out of Europe by Christmas.  So yes, I can see why the autumn series has no relevance (to Wales' 6N showing) because there doesn't appear to be any correlation.

Not just Wales, Irish teams would boss the Heineken cups but this had very little impact on 6 Nations form.

Are England going to be as bad in the 6 nations as their clubs have been in Europe ? Hugely doubt it.

munkian wrote:

The Oracle wrote:

IanBru wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:What people do not take into consideration on here as well is, the fact, that Wales were without their head man in the last 6N and we were left with the useless Howley. Wales were well on top in that first half and were unlucky not to be further in front. Perhaps with Gatland there, the carnage of the second half might not have happened.

Just some food for thought.

That's very true. Howley is inarguably inferior to Gatland.

Is Vern Cotter inferior to Gregor Townsend? Mibbes aye mibbes naw.

What I find most interesting is the idea that past performances in the Six Nations (particularly the last match in Cardiff two years ago) are seen as being more relevant to this match than the Autumn tests just two months ago. It's even being suggested (a "fact", apparently) that the Autumn tests are of no relevance whatsoever.

I'm struggling to square that circle, I'll be honest.

I think what is meant by that comment is that Wales' AI form (and indeed European club rugby form) has never been a predictor of how they'll do in the 6N.  That is a fact.  Wales have won grand slams weeks after completely bombing in the AIs.  Wales have won the 6N when their clubs are all out of Europe by Christmas.  So yes, I can see why the autumn series has no relevance (to Wales' 6N showing) because there doesn't appear to be any correlation.

Not just Wales, Irish teams would boss the Heineken cups but this had very little impact on 6 Nations form.

Are England going to be as bad in the 6 nations as their clubs have been in Europe ? Hugely doubt it.

So do I.

The only thing I will say about European rugby linking in to 6N, is that now the terms Are different for a few of the Welsh players. I don't know how many Scarlets players are in the squad but Now they do have other things on their mind as much as 6N. Some of them will be hoping to keep healthy and fit now deeper into the season. That European Cup does have meaning. It will be ticking away inside the heads of some players. So that MIGHT.... it MIGHT just colour some of the intent or lack of it through the 6N.

Most here will remember the big Irish fights when lack of success in an Irish shirt meant open accusations amongst players that some of their colleagues valued their HEC roles more than they worried about their Ireland ones. When you have two things in your head, the concentration levels can be called into question.

Loads of Turks in the squad Fly

I suspect we'll have the Scarlet's front row, possibly Shingler in the backrow,  centre combo and then quite possible a turk 10 and 15 and another on the wing.

Its like 2008 with Turks instead  of Ospreys.

I HOPE it gives them some confidence to play heads up rugby as that's when we are dangerous.

Oh for God's sake!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/42823288

Wales scrum-half Rhys Webb out of Six Nations

"Wales scrum-half Rhys Webb has been ruled out of the Six Nations with a knee injury.

The omission of the 31-times capped Webb adds to Wales' already lengthy injury list.

Head coach Warren Gatland has nine front-line players missing for the opening match against Scotland on 3 February and major doubts over at least three others.

Cardiff Blues' uncapped Tomos Williams has been added to the squad.

More to follow."

Ooft another big blow for Wales!

Shame for the guy too as this would be his last chance to play for Wales given his Toulon move.

Of course, this would be a terrible time to make jokes about B-team test matches between Scotland and Wales...

Ali Price will be gutted as he was looking to speak to Webb about hair dye and tanning products!

Is a right shame for the man as it could indeed (have been) his last game for Wales! What is his Toulon contract? 2 years? 3 years? If he's over in France till he is 32/33 then he could be struggling to get back into the team should he return to Wales!

He didn't look fully fit in the Dragons v Ospreys game on New Year's Eve. He made a break but didn't have the pace to make the line. I'm pretty sure he was subbed shortly afterwards.

That is a huge blow for Wales, as he is a class player

I wonder if this will help the cause for player welfare - as it does seem that we are going to end up with who ever has anyone left un injured