Next player to win their 1st slam?

We are clearly in an unusual transitional period at the top of the men's game right now, with both Federer and Nadal looking like winning at least a slam apiece this year. However, the injuries to Djokovic, Murray and Wawrinka has given an opportunity to other players, and I do think either this year or next we will finally see a new name winning a slam title, but who will it be?

Going to be honest, the next-gen just don’t seem to be up to the job, hence why the changing of the guard hasn’t occurred. This transition period could take another year or two, such is the continued success of Roger & Rafa at slam level. Nadal still heavy favourite at RG, as is Roger at Wimbledon. US open would be more open, but still Roger, Rafa, Novak & Cilic, would still be heavily expected to flourish.

As for the question at hand, I personally don’t see Raonic ever winning a slam. Goffin, likewise. Nishikori is ageing now, and physically is not able to compete over five sets, over a two week period. Thiem could possibly take the French, but Nadal would need to be taken out. Wimbledon would be Dimitrov’s best shot, but he’s too inconsistent. Zverev needs a couple more years of maturing & development. Kygrios would need to showcase he’s maturing, and there’s still question marks over his commitment and dedication to the sport.

As has been said, the sport is in a strange situation at the moment. Not surprised Roger has gone from being dead and buried on 17 slams, to suddenly being on the verge of 20, after a five year slam drought. I think that emphasises the failure of the next-gen, and the physical demise of Roger’s main rivals.

I hope it is going to be Wozniacki (rather than screacher Halep). As for the men there are just too many unknown variables to work out who it is going to be. Whoever it is, it is likely to be "handed to them on a plate" due to absenteeism or injury limited performances of the big guns.

Gone for Thiem. Only because next GS is on clay which is his best surface. Nadal obviously favourite if fit but with Federer unlikely to play and  big question marks over Djokovic and Wawrinka it could be a good opportunity for Thiem.

Raonic has proved he can get to a final at Wimbledon. Thiem has proved he can get to a semi-final at Roland Garros. Raonic is injury prone - which I think is due to his size creating additional stresses on his body. Thiem will have to get through Nadal if he is to win RG and only gets one chance a year. Nishikori coming back from injury has reached one final ...

From that list I have gone for Raonic but my only reservation is that he already seems injury plagued.

Way further down the line perhaps this kid is one to look out for:-

https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/tennis/andy-murray-protege-aidan-mchugh-reaches-australian-open-junior-boys-semifinal-a3749636.html

I had great expectations of Thiem, but he seems to be happy being a clay-court specialist. My pick is Zverev.

Raonic and Nishikori seem to be troubled and blighted by injuries and the window of opportunity is gone.

I've gone for Raonic. I think he could "do a Krajicek" and win Wimbledon one day. Their careers are similar. Both are/were big guys with big serves and who were injury prone.
   It was said of Krajicek that 1996 was really the only year when he was totally injury-free. The result? A Wimbledon triumph.
   As has been said above, Thiem's best chance might be the French. But no one's going to win that while Rafa's still around. Zverev's GS record is so far is poor, but at least he has age on his side. Dimi could, I suppose, be a late-blooming Slam winner a la Stan the Man.
   The young guns might have to wait, though. With the injuries piling up, you could see Fed winning a slam/slams even in 2019.

I went for Thiem myself. Yes he's a bit of a claycourt specialist, but I figure he's got less realistic competitors at Roland Garros than the other non-slam winning players have at other slams. I'm still not entirely convinced he can beat Nadal in a best of 5 set match on clay, but I feel he has been gradually improving each year and the gap between them on the surface isn't as high as it once was.

I can also see the logic of those who've gone for Raonic - yes he's not had the best of times with injuries of late but he's got an excellent temperament and reached Wimbledon final already.

I can make a case for Thiem on clay, but not elsewhere.

Kyrgios probably has the game at his best to win a major, but not yet the consistency - there was a good discussion a few days ago about the relentlessness of the Big 4, and that's the thing currently missing with Nick.

Zverev is difficult to judge because of the weird anomaly of his slam record, but based on age, ranking progression and MS1000 record you'd have to expect him to start challenging in the slams before the end of this year.

I'm coming round to thinking that none of the older players in that list will be a GS title winner - for me, Nishi and Goffin don't quite have the game (i.e. they will always come across someone who over-powers them), Raonic I think may have already missed his chance and Dimitrov continues to lack the ability to string together enough good performances or to scrap out wins on his off days*.

In truth, answering the poll question, I would go for the A N Other option - I have a feeling that someone like Shavopalov or Rublev will spring a surprise before any of the players listed above. The only reason for thinking this is that most of the guys named have some mental scarring from being beaten by the Big 4 and others of that generation, and I just think someone fresh has a better chance of coming through.

* Probably something that sets Fed, Nadal and Djoko apart from the others, even including Andy, is that they have so few genuine off days in major tournaments, and even then often find sufficient to pick up a win to move on through the tournament.

Who knows what's just around the corner in sport? It's quite sobering to think that when Sampras chalked up his then-record 14th GS in 2002 that a man with no GS titles at that point would eclipse the Sampras record within just SEVEN years.
   OK, the bar is now up to 20. But someone, say Shapovalov, could come along and rattle of a Federer-like volley of multiple slams and emerge from the shadow of the big four to become the king of the sport.
   It could be that Dummy-half is right and that none of the above will be the next new winner of a slam. Also, a good point from DH about the ability to conjure up a win when you're playing below par.

sirfredperry wrote:... good point from DH about the ability to conjure up a win when you're playing below par.

Bit in bold: how about the ability to conjure up a win when you're playing at par or above par?  Remember the players par or above par might not be good enough for their opponents sub-par.

Both Edmund and Chung probably played above par but their bodies were not able to recover in time for the semi-finals.  Same for Dimitrov in the quarter-final.  In the semi-finals Edmund & Chung were playing par in sub-par bodies against opponents playing par or subpar in par bodies.

NNB: Fraid to say that on my local courts even my par excellence aint gonna get the job done against anyone sub-par these days...

Thought I'd shamelessly bump this up. With Federer, Nadal and Djokovic winning the slams so far this year, Murray on his way back, and Cilic and Del Potro challenging hard at various points, its looking unlikely we'll see a first time slam winner at the US Open, and whilst I think we could see a 1st time finalist come through, I don't see anyone stepping up to win their 1st slam until 2020 unless injury intervenes for the top 3.

Yes, the Djoko revival suggests the wait for a new Slam winner could well go on. Who knows, Murray could be back in contention too, although that might take a while.
It's interesting that with Murray absent for a year and Djoko at first absent and then initially not at his best, it's the likes of Cilic, Delpo (both nearing 30) and Isner and Anderson (both well past 30) who have stepped up. Yes, Thiem made the French final but he and Zverev must look at their overall Slam records and be disappointed.
One young guy who has done well this year is Tsitsipas. Tiafoe could be one to watch and Shapovalov is another.
I noticed in the earlier posts that I went for Raonic as the possible next new Slam winner. He did go deep at Wimbledon but injury - his nemesis - hampered him in the quarter against Isner. If there's a non-Big Three winner at the USO this year it's likely to be Cilic or Delpo rather than any of the young guns.

Ten years ago - that’s TEN - the four Slams were won by players named Nadal, Federer and Djokovic.

We’re in a tennis time warp.

Both Del Potro and Cilic turn 30 in late September so, unless we have a new winner at the US Open, there won’t be a slam winner younger than 30.

I’m still inclined to think the next new winner is likely to be Zverev, given his Masters record. However, I can’t see it being this year.

I think Zverev is probably the best talent we've seen come through since Murray/Djokovic. When his game is on even Nadal and to some extent Federer struggle to contain him. I'm not sure how to explain his poor record at slams - I think it genuinely started out as a coincidence and now it's developed into a mental block for him. Important that he peaks at the hardcourt slams, he's not bad on clay but Nadal and Thiem are a level above meanwhile his grasscourt game needs development. Having said all this people forget he's still very young and can probably keep improving for at least 3 or 4 years. I still hold some faith in the so called NextGen, the likes of Zverev, Thiem, Shapovalov look a cut above anything the crop of players before them brought along - a generation that could have been spearheaded by Dimitrov, del Potro etc but never really materialised.

Enjoyed watching Thiem at RG this year and it was a shame he just cracked at the end of the first set against Rafa. Had he won that set we could have been in for a brilliant final, in the end Thiem was probably a little overawed by the occasion. However he definitely has the raw materials, incredible groundstroke power and movement that had Rafa startled for a short while. Plus it shouldn't be forgotten he has several wins over Rafa on clay already. On the other hand he appears to be developing into a claycourt specialist and accordingly slam opportunities are going to be few and far between.

As an aside, I believe the recent football World Cup featured a record low number of teenagers - is this trend we're seeing in tennis being mirrored in other sports? Now admittedly I've put little thought into this but the summit of professional football has been occupied by Messi and Ronaldo for over a decade now - France's Mbappe seems like the first player in a long while to have all the attributes to really challenge them. Interested if anyone else here is noticing similar patterns.

Thiem lost to N Jarry in Hamburg on Clay.

I'm going to bump this up each time another slam eludes the rest of the field. Arguably I should remove Goffin from my poll and potentially Dimitrov (though I do think he has the game to reach a Wimbledon final), and there's a case for adding Khachanov and Tsitsipas.

We're now into the time of year where Thiem is a valid contender in this category, but post Roland Garros I suspect we'll be in the same situation...

I'm not sure it makes sense to change the players you can vote for; then you get a mixed muddle of results with people voting at different times. The original vote I would even close it down if you can.

MrInvisible wrote:I'm going to bump this up each time another slam eludes the rest of the field.  

You may want to consider an annual poll as a substitute. Things change every year.

Some in the current list have missed their opportunity.

Been re-reading all the posts on this topic. Still think of the players listed Raonic is the one who could do it.
Prepared to say that ALL the slams this year will go to 30-somethings, as they have for the last 10 slams.

Reopening this old topic, I and we are still awaiting a new Slam winner. Think I'm right in saying the last new titlist was Cilic at the USO in 2014.

Thiem was the favourite to do it next when we started this thread and given his three GS final appearances since I guess he's still favourite.

Can't see anyone outside the Big Three winning RG or Wimbledon this year; so it looks as if the 2020 USO is the next possible venue for a new Slam champion.

Assuming the following chart from Wiki is accurate, and I’ve counted correctly, (GS’s in chronological order (Aus on left, then French…you get the idea)) other than the top 4 plus Stan, or top 4 plus Andy depending on your viewpoint, there has only been three other winners since 2005, that’s 3 out of 61. I guess we could argue all day as to how this domination has occurred, however, I would expect the trend to continue until the top 4 or 5 (if / when Andy returns) decide to retire. I suppose you can get a few ‘anomalies’ such as Thiem being especially successful on clay which might bump up his chances above the crowd.

Another question is: What will Men’s tennis be like when they’ve all shuffled off into the sunset?....I’m guessing, nowhere near as interesting
2005
 Marat Safin (2/2)  Rafael Nadal (1/19)
 Roger Federer (5/20)  Roger Federer (6/20)
2006
 Roger Federer (7/20)  Rafael Nadal (2/19)  Roger Federer (8/20)  Roger Federer (9/20)
2007
 Roger Federer (10/20)  Rafael Nadal (3/19)  Roger Federer (11/20)  Roger Federer (12/20)
2008
 Novak Djokovic (1/17)
 Rafael Nadal (4/19)  Rafael Nadal (5/19)  Roger Federer (13/20)
2009
 Rafael Nadal (6/19)  Roger Federer (14/20)  Roger Federer (15/20)  Juan Martín del Potro

2010
 Roger Federer (16/20)  Rafael Nadal (7/19)  Rafael Nadal (8/19)  Rafael Nadal (9/19)
2011
 Novak Djokovic (2/17)  Rafael Nadal (10/19)  Novak Djokovic (3/17)  Novak Djokovic (4/17)
2012
 Novak Djokovic (5/17)  Rafael Nadal (11/19)  Roger Federer (17/20)  Andy Murray (1/3)

2013
 Novak Djokovic (6/17)  Rafael Nadal (12/19)  Andy Murray (2/3)  Rafael Nadal (13/19)
2014
 Stan Wawrinka (1/3)
 Rafael Nadal (14/19)  Novak Djokovic (7/17)  Marin Čilić

2015
 Novak Djokovic (8/17)  Stan Wawrinka (2/3)  Novak Djokovic (9/17)  Novak Djokovic (10/17)
2016
 Novak Djokovic (11/17)  Novak Djokovic (12/17)  Andy Murray (3/3)  Stan Wawrinka (3/3)
2017
 Roger Federer (18/20)  Rafael Nadal (15/19)  Roger Federer (19/20)  Rafael Nadal (16/19)
2018
 Roger Federer (20/20)  Rafael Nadal (17/19)  Novak Djokovic (13/17)  Novak Djokovic (14/17)
2019
 Novak Djokovic (15/17)  Rafael Nadal (18/19)  Novak Djokovic (16/17)  Rafael Nadal (19/19)
2020
 Novak Djokovic (17/17)

Yes, it's an incredible run by the Big Three plus Andy M and Stan the Man.

If you take out Safin's win at the AO in 05 then it's only two other winners in the last 60 Slams (delpo at the USO in 09 and Cilic at the 2014 USO).

The big contrast is with the women in the last few years since Serena stopped winning Slams.

Next new male GS winner? At the moment I'd go for Thiem.

Last non big 5 winner:

Australian - 2005 (Safin)
French - 2004 (Gaudio)
Wimbledon - 2002 (Hewitt)
US - 2014 (Cilic)

But for the US Open, there will be a lot of players who’ve had an entire career since anyone else won a slam.

Thiem should win the French this year - I can’t see Rafa stopping him this time. However, it’s still hard to see anyone but Fed or Novak (or Murray if he happened to be fully fit) winning Wimbledon.

BS - Yes, if anyone can stop Rafa at the French it's Thiem. But I'd still put my money on the Spaniard.

Born Slippy wrote:Last non big 5 winner:

Australian - 2005 (Safin)
French - 2004 (Gaudio)
Wimbledon - 2002 (Hewitt)
US - 2014 (Cilic)

But for the US Open, there will be a lot of players who’ve had an entire career since anyone else won a slam.

Just to remind everyone - it's 2020, and the guy that started 2 of those streaks was a point away from winning Wimbledon last year, while Rafa started the RG streak and is still the dominant player there. It really is extraordinary...

It shouldn't be forgotten that for a number of years the Big Four dominated the Masters (1,000-point) tournaments as well.

I seem to recall that for a while - covering several seasons - the youngest player to last win a 1,000-pointer was....Djoko. He was getting older and older but was STILL the youngest guy to take a Masters title.

Perhaps, though, those hankering for new faces at the top should be careful what they wish for. The women, in contrast, have had numerous number ones and GS winners of late. Yet some complain about a lack of domination/rivalries in the WTA.

This is worth dusting off again - although only two players in the above poll are still in the 2020 US Open.

Could be that the two people who voted for OTHER in the original poll could be successful.

Thanks for bringing this back up SFP - does everyone remember who they voted for in this?

I went for Thiem myself although this was very much with Roland Garros in mind as at the time of this poll he hadn't done a huge amount on the hardcourts.

I went for Raonic.

This was posted in Jan 26 2018.

The next winner of a Grand Slam is new by default because of the pandemic, the absences of Federer & Nadal and the disqualification of Djokovic.

That said you have to take your chances when they arrive.  

Personally I think Thiem would be a more than worthy winner given this is his fourth slam final and he has been knocking at the door for some time now.  I just hope he is fit for the final because he turned his ankle in the semi-final and there is a possibility he might have had a reaction.

Ps: What happened to Nishikori?  He had an injury and was never the same since.  We also have a missing Del Potro - has he now retired?

I went for Raonic, too.

Delpo, by the way, has had to have ANOTHER surgery - this time on his knee. He's really had no luck with injuries.

sirfredperry wrote:Reopening this old topic, I and we are still awaiting a new Slam winner. Think I'm right in saying the last new titlist was Cilic at the USO in 2014.

Thiem was the favourite to do it next when we started this thread and given his three GS final appearances since I guess he's still favourite.

Can't see anyone outside the Big Three winning RG or Wimbledon this year; so it looks as if the 2020 USO is the next possible venue for a new Slam champion.

Good call , Sir Fred

MrInvisible wrote:Thought I'd shamelessly bump this up.  With Federer, Nadal and Djokovic winning the slams so far this year, Murray on his way back, and Cilic and Del Potro challenging hard at various points, its looking unlikely we'll see a first time slam winner at the US Open, and whilst I think we could see a 1st time finalist come through, I don't see anyone stepping up to win their 1st slam until 2020 unless injury intervenes for the top 3.

Mr I gets it spot on with reference to 2020. Is that 2020 vision or what?

PS - Only just seen my own reference to 2020 (see above). Had forgotten I'd actually pinpointed the USO. More luck than judgement on my part.
Also, Mr I's excellent prediction was made as far back as July 2018 while mine was earlier this year.