Six Nations Title chances - Who needs what to win?

A quick rundown of who needs what in order to take the title.




Ireland, England and Scotland are the only ones with realistic chances. Mathematically Wales could do it, but the chance is around 0.3%.

Ireland are 5 points ahead with 2 games to play.

If they beat Scotland (H) and England (A) they will win the title and take the Grand Slam. We give this a 22% chance.

However, it is more likely that Ireland will lose in Twickenham (we give Ireland around 30% chance of victory).

Under these circumstances, bonus points (BP) will be important.

If Ireland BP Scotland
      - then England will need to BP France and Ireland AND overcome the points difference, which we think is likely to be around 32 points. For example England would need to beat Ireland 43-10.

If Ireland don't BP Scotland, and England BP France
      - then a BP win for England over Ireland would see England take the title.
      OR
      - a normal win and overcoming the points difference would see England take the title. Realistically, this would amount to a BP win.

Practically speaking:

      - England will likely need to BP both France and Ireland to win,
      - A BP win for Ireland against Scotland will likely seal them the title, due to the points difference likely being too great for England to practically overcome,
      - If England lose to France and Ireland beat Scotland, then the title is Ireland's,
      - If Ireland lose to Scotland, and England beat France then the title chances swing back in England's favour, roughly 70:30.

For Scotland to win the title it would require

      - beating Ireland in Dublin
      - a BP win against Italy in Rome
      AND
      - France beating England in Paris
      - England beating Ireland in Twickenham

We give this a 3% chance of happening.



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