Scotland v South Africa Saturday 17th November

First topic message reminder :

Scotland v South Africa
BT Murrayfield Stadium
Edinburgh

Saturday 17th November
KO 17.00


Well another interesting game coming up between two old rivals.

Scotland found their form with a vengeance this Saturday, putting a much fancied Fiji side to the sword very emphatically. They are a team who have very good home form now and they will see this as their biggest test of the autumn.

South Africa are also on the up and playing much better under Erasmus, with a noticeable scalp of the All Blacks this season and beating England in a series over the summer. Recent form is a bit mixed, they lost a game they should have won against England and won a game they should have lost against France, so hard to know just what to read into that. It has been a long hard season for them and it is not going to be easy stringing together 4 hard tests in 4 weekends.

Scotland will have the advantage of having been able to rest and rotate a few of their players. The question remains though will Toonie go all out with his strongest team for this one (does he even know what his strongest team is?) or will he continue with some gentle tinkering, as is his want and maybe even introduce a few new players into the mix. Will we see Gary Graham capped for instance in his first appearance in a Scotland squad after a road to Damascus moment sometime over breakfast (humble pie on the menu) this weekend.

My stab at the Scotland team before we get a few clues with media interviews during the week:

Nel
McInally
Dell
Gray
Skinner
Wilson
Strauss
Watson
Laidlaw
Russell
Seymour
Dunbar
Jones H
Maitland
Hogg

Allen
Brown
Berghan
Gilchrist
Graham
Horne G
Hastings
Kinghorn

BigGee wrote:He is going to give the Hastings/Russell 10/12 combo another crack, you just know he will, it is just to appealing to resist!

Seriously though going forward, the 12 shirt is the one we are having the most trouble with so maybe this does come into play. We will get a better idea against some serious opposition this weekend.

If it works, we may see it starting against Argentina!

No No No No we finally have two 10s and now we want to push one out to 12???? when we have Matt Scott(12), Alex Dunbar(12) and Pete Horne(definitely 12, never 10)??

Madness. Tombolic Madness.

Horne/Jones in the midfield. Have to feel that de Allende will be looking forward to running at that.

Tramptastic wrote:

BigGee wrote:He is going to give the Hastings/Russell 10/12 combo another crack, you just know he will, it is just to appealing to resist!

Seriously though going forward, the 12 shirt is the one we are having the most trouble with so maybe this does come into play. We will get a better idea against some serious opposition this weekend.

If it works, we may see it starting against Argentina!

No No No No we finally have two 10s and now we want to push one out to 12???? when we have Matt Scott(12), Alex Dunbar(12) and Pete Horne(definitely 12, never 10)??

Madness. Tombolic Madness.

To be fair, none of Scott, Dunbar or Horne P have made a compelling case to nail down the shirt, despite having numerous chances. Matt Scott unfortunately missing his chances through injury. I am not against trying it out.

Pete Horne will have a lot on his plate this weekend with de Allende and the SA back row baring down on him at a rate of knots. This may be the acid test for him, one unfortunately that he has been found lacking in previously.

No idea what to make of that selection.

• Reid – I had written him off, due to playing in the championship.  I’d have given a start to Allan here as I think he’s done well when coming on in the last couple of games, or stuck with Dell and played Allan from the start next week.  Not sure Reid is the answer.
• No lock cover – hell of a risk, especially against South Africa.
• Wilson at 8 – As TT so beautifully put it, he’s knickers.  He is marginally less poor at 6, and Struass probably should have started at 8 after his performance last weekend.  However, I think this is the first time in ages he’s not listed as VC.  I wonder if that means something for his future in the shirt.  Probably not.
• Horne (the younger) -  played well coming on last week and probably deserved the chance again this week.  Mind you Toonie hopefully has seen something that can be exploited in SA and feels price is the man for it.

With all that said, Toonie loves a curveball and it normally pans out for him, so I look forward to a Reid hattrick and the two backrow bench cover working wonders.

I guess if there is an injury in the second row, Skinner would move forward?

If he had not been concussed, would Denton have featured in the autumn games?

LondonTiger wrote:I guess if there is an injury in the second row, Skinner would move forward?

If he had not been concussed, would Denton have featured in the autumn games?

Well Strauss was not in the original squad and Dents was, so yes, it is likely that he would have seen some game time at least, though it is never entirely clear where DD fits into the Toonie game plan, not having what you might refer to as 'the soft hands'.

Even more unfortunately for him, it seems that Strauss has taken his opportunity well and reminded us that he is a destructive carrier with a very good skill set and a rugby brain. He was on the naughty step since he failed to turn up for the game in Fiji 18 months ago, but seems to have gotten himself back off it now.

Skinner played in second and back row in the Fiji game, so yes he would move forward. He seems to have a good engine, as do Toolis and Gray, they are all 80 min players if needed.

I do find it quite strange when coaches take the risk of not having cover for a certain position on the bench - always seems a bit of an unnecessary risk to me, but Toonie must see more reward in having two BR's on the bench.

It's an exciting team, I think the back row has better balance with Skinner in at 6 to provide a bit of ballast and good to see Strauss retained. Weak point will definitely be the midfield defence, with Horne and Jones both in need of big games in that department. I would love to see Hastings and Russell again...totally mad, but could just work.

I don't think it is too much of a risk - if a 2nd row is injured Skinner will move up. If he also then gets injured it's the same situation as having a replacement lock on the bench (i.e. if a lock and the replacement lock gets injured you're going to be short one lock!)

Huw Jones is an outstanding talent when Scotland are in possession, right up with the very best in the world. Sadly defensively I am not sure he qualifies as a turnstile. Some of the issue lies with the defensive organisation across the line, but there are certainly things the young <insert nationality here> (  ) needs to work on. You have a new defensive coach or did the current guy join with Townsend?

RDW_Scotland wrote:I don't think it is too much of a risk - if a 2nd row is injured Skinner will move up. If he also then gets injured it's the same situation as having a replacement lock on the bench (i.e. if a lock and the replacement lock gets injured you're going to be short one lock!)

Playing devil's advocate it does also mean that at least two of Skinner, Gray & Toolis are going to be playing for 80mins (assuming no injuries to those players), which is going to take its toll against a team as physical as SA. Would probably be preferable to have at least 1 lock who is not totally knackered towards the end of the game.

LondonTiger wrote:Huw Jones is an outstanding talent when Scotland are in possession, right up with the very best in the world. Sadly defensively I am not sure he qualifies as a turnstile. Some of the issue lies with the defensive organisation across the line, but there are certainly things the young <insert nationality here> (  ) needs to work on. You have a new defensive coach or did the current guy join with Townsend?

Huw Jones tackle success rate his higher than any other OC this year, so yeah he's not a turnstile.  There is a good article (link below) that highlights the system let him down.  

https://www.rugbypass.com/news/analysis-why-scotlands-defensive-system-made-huw-jones-look-worse-than-he-actually-is

BigGee wrote:

Tramptastic wrote:

BigGee wrote:He is going to give the Hastings/Russell 10/12 combo another crack, you just know he will, it is just to appealing to resist!

Seriously though going forward, the 12 shirt is the one we are having the most trouble with so maybe this does come into play. We will get a better idea against some serious opposition this weekend.

If it works, we may see it starting against Argentina!

No No No No we finally have two 10s and now we want to push one out to 12???? when we have Matt Scott(12), Alex Dunbar(12) and Pete Horne(definitely 12, never 10)??

Madness. Tombolic Madness.

To be fair, none of Scott, Dunbar or Horne P have made a compelling case to nail down the shirt, despite having numerous chances. Matt Scott unfortunately missing his chances through injury. I am not against trying it out.

Pete Horne will have a lot on his plate this weekend with de Allende and the SA back row baring down on him at a rate of knots. This may be the acid test for him, one unfortunately that he has been found lacking in previously.

Also its all about options isn't it, particularly with the world cup coming up. Russell is looking a more complete player since he moved to France, and having the option of having him as a second distributor at 12 is a nice option to have particularly with some of his mad passes shifting the point of attack.

On the subject of Hastings, AR Rugby (am I right in saying he turns up on these boards every so often, or am I thinking about something else?) put up an excellent highlight video of him yesterday. He is going to turn out to be an absolute gem of a player, you can see it.

EWT Spoons wrote:

RDW_Scotland wrote:I don't think it is too much of a risk - if a 2nd row is injured Skinner will move up. If he also then gets injured it's the same situation as having a replacement lock on the bench (i.e. if a lock and the replacement lock gets injured you're going to be short one lock!)

Playing devil's advocate it does also mean that at least two of Skinner, Gray & Toolis are going to be playing for 80mins (assuming no injuries to those players), which is going to take its toll against a team as physical as SA.  Would probably be preferable to have at least 1 lock who is not totally knackered towards the end of the game.

Yeah, that was the angle I was going for - they are all 80 min operators, but that's a tough ask for two of them against a pack as big as SA - it's not like either Strauss or Richie could fill in at lock either. I do like the idea of Skinner at 6 though, he looked to have good pace and mobility on the weekend - nice to have a more physical option in that position.

JG plays 80 mins pretty much every week and never looks tired, it is just a normal afternoon out for him. Toolis probably less so and more likely to be the one to need subbing but again he is a slightly lighter lock who never seems to be flagging even when he gets subbed.

It is the breakdown and the collisions where this game will be won and lost, so having two new physical backrow to come on at 50-60 mins is maybe not a bad tactic. Whoever looks the fresher of Skinner and Toolis will stay on baring injuries.

EWT Spoons wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:Huw Jones is an outstanding talent when Scotland are in possession, right up with the very best in the world. Sadly defensively I am not sure he qualifies as a turnstile. Some of the issue lies with the defensive organisation across the line, but there are certainly things the young <insert nationality here> (  ) needs to work on. You have a new defensive coach or did the current guy join with Townsend?

Huw Jones tackle success rate his higher than any other OC this year, so yeah he's not a turnstile.  There is a good article (link below) that highlights the system let him down.  

https://www.rugbypass.com/news/analysis-why-scotlands-defensive-system-made-huw-jones-look-worse-than-he-actually-is

Yep:

An unbiased writer wrote:Huw Jones’ tackle success rate of 85% for Scotland in 2018 is the best of any international outside centre this year, ahead of Mathieu Bastareud (83%), Anton Lienert Brown (83%), Ryan Crotty (83%), Gary Ringrose (83%), Jack Goodhue (78%), Jesse Kriel (73%), Samu Kerevi (68%) and Henry Slade (57%).

We had to read the same old cowpat when Hogg missed a tackle in one 6N and the armchair warriors started the chin stroking about how he had 'problems in defence'. People categorically see what they want to see.

Anyone else got concerns about the lack of physicality in our backline? Looking at every player picked, the word 'physical' would be well down the list of their best attributes. If you look at the likely Bok backline that word would be near the top for most! We need go forward in test rugby and I'm worried we'll end up doing the Toonie shuffle - i.e. sending it wide early without ever going forward.

On the plus side, there's a hell of a lot of impact off the bench. That front row is just as strong as the one it will replace, and Strauss and Ritchie will bring a lot of physicality and impact. Price and Hasting can up the pace and Harris is a good solid defender and showed against Fiji he can attack a bit too.

Going to be a great contest!

RDW_Scotland wrote:Anyone else got concerns about the lack of physicality in our backline? Looking at every player picked, the word 'physical' would be well down the list of their best attributes. If you look at the likely Bok backline that word would be near the top for most! We need go forward in test rugby and I'm worried we'll end up doing the Toonie shuffle - i.e. sending it wide early without ever going forward.

On the plus side, there's a hell of a lot of impact off the bench. That front row is just as strong as the one it will replace, and Strauss and Ritchie will bring a lot of physicality and impact. Price and Hasting can up the pace and Harris is a good solid defender and showed against Fiji he can attack a bit too.

Going to be a great contest!

See this is where I think Dunbar would have been better suited to this game - he is our best defender and his ball carrying in heavy traffic is probably the best of all our defenders - I would just feel a lot more reassured seeing his name on the team sheet at 12!

I don't think our back line is overly physical RDW.

Midfield is physical from Pollard, De Allende and Kriel, but that is going forward, on defence they all have weaknesses.

Our back three is not big, Nkosi, Diyanti and Le Roux are of the smaller back three combos of tier one nations.

And van Zyl likely to play in place of Faf is not big.

Our scramble defence works hard because of our backline fallacies in defence

Fair enough Biltong, but these days you often find forwards in the backline and if we don't man up in defence with out own forwards to help out we can be in trouble.

I can see a lot of heavy traffic going down the Russell-Horne channel.

Possibly, but our forward charges are very predictable, no change of running angles, one pass bash ups, very seldom will a forward offload in the tackle to vary the line of entry, sure the guys must man up, but it isn't overly challenging.

I think the breakdown momentum is the key for SA.

If we manage to gain the advantage line and then create momentum, ruck speed can increase, otherwise our attack is seriously pedantic and predictable

What are Boks fans making of this game Biltong? I've seen a bit of chat on Social Media people saying Bok fans think this is going to be an easy win.

I hope the team thinks the same!

I am with Bilts on this one, they have two big meaty centres and then two lightning fast smaller guys on the wings, who may be a little bit flakey defensively. I am not sure that the two centres are the greatest passers of the ball either, but they are very good carriers.

However you look at it, we are not going to beat SA by trying to out physical them. Our template should surely be the way that we beat France, who are in some ways a similar team, that is keep them moving around at a very high tempo, which will eventually take its toll and the gaps will come

Easier said than done I know, but not impossible.

I think the Boks will miss Faf de Klerk badly as well, he seems to have been the beating heart of the team recently.

Why did they let him go back to Sale, was there some prior arrangement about this for some previous favour?

Morning guys, there are a couple of things regarding selection.

Firstly there is a cold calculating hand turning the Tombola. If we lose Toonie can point to one or two selections and say, in effect, it wasn't our first XV it was about learning about players and we did that.

Secondly, the pack shouldn't get pushed around and Huw Jones played lots of Currie Cup rugby so he will know how to defend against them. Furra Linee is a very good defender, as is Dancer.

Finally, if we keep up the high tempo and succeed in tiring their behemoths then there is frightening pace on our bench.

So, in summation....We're doomed.

BigGee wrote:I am with Bilts on this one, they have two big meaty centres and then two lightning fast smaller guys on the wings, who may be a little bit flakey defensively. I am not sure that the two centres are the greatest passers of the ball either, but they are very good carriers.

However you look at it, we are not going to beat SA by trying to out physical them. Our template should surely be the way that we beat France, who are in some ways a similar team, that is keep them moving around at a very high tempo, which will eventually take its toll and the gaps will come

Easier said than done I know, but not impossible.

Yes, midfield doesn't pass much, Kriel especially runs until he finds a landing spot, occasionally he will put a little grubber behind.

De Allende rarely offloads.

If you see either of them running they will likely retain posession until they are tackled.

If they do pass, it is immediately.

Pollard is dangerous as he runs flat and has an eye for a gap, his distribution is decent and he has a good dummy and step, however I personally don't think he is always managing territory well.

I suspect Van Zyl will be selected at 9, he doesn't do much unexpected, just a solid player but he has adopted Faf's irritatingly slow box kick.

Diyanti and Nkosi has free reign to decide when they want to come in on defence to stop the ball at source, they are improving and their pace makes it work, but not all the time.

Defesively le Roux is up and down, but you guys know him well.

Boks have been very inconsistent, they will either gel and put in a good performance, but they can also lose the plot and become very dire.

BigGee wrote:I think the Boks will miss Faf de Klerk badly as well, he seems to have been the beating heart of the team recently.

Why did they let him go back to Sale, was there some prior arrangement about this for some previous favour?

I have to be honest, I don't like Faf, yes he fights above his weight category, and yes he does have flashes of brillianve, but his directing the ruck, his box kick irritates the life out of me. He does also concede quite often some poor penalties.

I would prefer Rassie looking at home for a halfback.

I would also prefer if we have a scrum half with solid good consistent and crisp service and play more off 10.

RDW_Scotland wrote:What are Boks fans making of this game Biltong? I've seen a bit of chat on Social Media people saying Bok fans think this is going to be an easy win.

I hope the team thinks the same!

I don't really know what the average South African think RDW, the few I speak to aren't convinced the Springboks have turned a corner yet, mostly due to the fact that they can be utterly disappointing in one match and then decent in the next.

jimbopip wrote:Morning guys, there are a couple of things regarding selection.

Firstly there is a cold calculating hand turning the Tombola. If we lose Toonie can point to one or two selections and say, in effect, it wasn't our first XV it was about learning about players and we did that.

Secondly, the pack shouldn't get pushed around and Huw Jones played lots of Currie Cup rugby so he will know how to defend against them. Furra Linee is a very good defender, as is Dancer.

Finally, if we keep up the high tempo and succeed in tiring their behemoths then there is frightening pace on our bench.

So, in summation....We're doomed.

Huw Jones is a good player, he has always looked good in SA, doubt there will be any issues with his performance.

You don't sound the most positive of Bok fans Biltong - surely your massive upturn in fortunes in the last 6 months compared to the last 3-4 years is something to be happy about??

A year ago everyone would have laughed some of the results you have had since!

we play with more structure, better set piece and more enthusiasm.

But the team is naive in the manner they manage the game situation, the territory and the decision making is all over the place.

Firstly Rassie takes over, sends a B team to the USA to play Wales with no preparation and loses a match against Wales that was absolutelt pathetically dire.

Then they beat England by what I can only describe as the luck of the ignorant, the newer players didn't grasp the gravity of what it is to succmb to pressure.

Then we have a RC that can only be described as frustrating, we lose a match vs Argentina that was an embarressing performance, then lose a match vs Australia that was disappointingly incompetent, beat NZ by luck, lose to N Z because now there is expectation and mentally they fold.

We demolish England for 40 minutes but they forget the reason you dominate is to score points, the attack went out the window and we forget to offload, we forget to create space and it was simply just bloody crap.

Against France we were lucky.

So yeah, there is no form, no consistency, nothing you can bank on.

It is a bnch of guys eager to play for their new coach, but horribly inconsistent .

Many South African fans stare blindly at results, it is only when you analyse performance regardless of result that you know where your team is

Biltong wrote:

RDW_Scotland wrote:What are Boks fans making of this game Biltong? I've seen a bit of chat on Social Media people saying Bok fans think this is going to be an easy win.

I hope the team thinks the same!

I don't really know what the average South African think RDW, the few I speak to aren't convinced the Springboks have turned a corner yet, mostly due to the fact that they can be utterly disappointing in one match and then decent in the next.

Bilt you old honoury Edinburgh Fan you, how the devil are you?

I'm 50/50 on this one as I've not seen enouogh of SA this year to see if they've made any progress. If the game were being played in SA I'd have them as favourites but with the game in Scotland, I think we'r ever so slightly ahead in terms of odds.

It'll be a sore affair though with ice baths for all after I think.

We Scots have been analysing our teams performance for years and generally came to the conclusion that we were cr*p!

We also know all about turning corners and false dawns, there have been plenty of them!

Let's hope both teams are on the right path now, just that SA are a tad further back down the road than we are this Saturday!

tigertattie wrote:

Biltong wrote:

RDW_Scotland wrote:What are Boks fans making of this game Biltong? I've seen a bit of chat on Social Media people saying Bok fans think this is going to be an easy win.

I hope the team thinks the same!

I don't really know what the average South African think RDW, the few I speak to aren't convinced the Springboks have turned a corner yet, mostly due to the fact that they can be utterly disappointing in one match and then decent in the next.

Bilt you old honoury Edinburgh Fan you, how the devil are you?

I'm 50/50 on this one as I've not seen enouogh of SA this year to see if they've made any progress. If the game were being played in SA I'd have them as favourites but with the game in Scotland, I think we'r ever so slightly ahead in terms of odds.

It'll be a sore affair though with ice baths for all after I think.

Agree mate, just hope it is a good game.

Regardless of result this match is a great physical test for Scotland. Judging by Townsend interviews I think he is hoping Scotland can run SA around a bit. I’m really intrigued to see how this goes and if Scotland can match SA physicality and set piece. If so then you’d hope that would mean the backs can operate well. Still think SA will win but Murrayfield has become a tough place for teams to visit.

Really experimental South Africa team selected:

15 Willie le Roux
14 S’bu Nkosi
13 Jesse Kriel
12 Damian de Allende
11 Aphiwe Dyantyi
10 Handre Pollard
9 Embrose Papier
8 Duane Vermeulen
7 Pieter-Steph du Toit
6 Siya Kolisi (captain)
5 Franco Mostert
4 RG Snyman
3 Frans Malherbe
2 Malcolm Marx
1 Steven Kitshoff

16 Bongi Mbonambi
17 Thomas du Toit
18 Vincent Koch
19 Lood de Jager
20 Francois Louw
21 Ivan van Zyl
22 Elton Jantjies
23 Cheslin Kolbe

Wait no...that's them at full beast mode. Jebus look at the size of that pack.

Thoughts on that Biltong?

I would not like to be paying the food bill!

BigGee wrote:I would not like to be paying the food bill!

That's such a dad joke!

Wait till you have kids!

Looks like Rassie's first choice from what is available.

If Scotland play like they did against England this year I can see them winning this one in style. Hard side to play in Murrayfield as the ABs found out last Nov.

#captainporkknuckle

Biltong wrote:Looks like Rassie's first choice from what is available.

Yep, see a big win coning up biltong. Like the ABs, boks are ready to inleash.

What gets me about some bok indiciduals is they can be amongst the worlds best one match then terrible the next. If this team played to their potential it wouldnt matter if Scotland did as well , theyd beat them easily. Rassies just gotta manage them in a way he gets their best out of them.

Taylorman wrote:

Biltong wrote:Looks like Rassie's first choice from what is available.

Yep, see a big win coning up biltong. Like the ABs, boks are ready to inleash.

What gets me about some bok indiciduals is they can be amongst the worlds best one match then terrible the next. If this team played to their potential it wouldnt matter if Scotland did as well , theyd beat them easily. Rassies just gotta manage them in a way he gets their best out of them.

Wish I knew the answer to that inconsistency tman.

Biltong wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

Biltong wrote:Looks like Rassie's first choice from what is available.

Yep, see a big win coning up biltong. Like the ABs, boks are ready to inleash.

What gets me about some bok indiciduals is they can be amongst the worlds best one match then terrible the next. If this team played to their potential it wouldnt matter if Scotland did as well , theyd beat them easily. Rassies just gotta manage them in a way he gets their best out of them.

Wish I knew the answer to that inconsistency tman.

The week between losing to oz then winning in wellington was surreal.
I see next years RC vs SA is in Wellington again as the Wcup pool oreview.

SA are an enigma just now.

Any team that can have Francois Louw on the bench is just odd.

Morning my peeps, on my way to collect Pippetto from hospital.
This means that I WILL be at Murrayfield tomorrow.
Boks looking strong.

Embrose Papier seems to be getting talked up a lot by Boks fans, first start for him so will be interesting to see how he does. I wish Horne was playing tomorrow, that would have been a great battle of the 9's. I'm not sure how Price will fair when he comes on but I hope he can add something like last Autumn.

Sure we're in for an entertaining game!

Don't think anyone has mentioned in the Media but Dell's defence was a bit ropey for both Fiji tries, perhaps that is why Townsend has selected Reid ahead of him?

The first defensive lapse was because Dell was jogging back watching and expecting the Ritchie tackle to be made and preparing for a ruck. Ritchie makes the tackle but the Fijian player offloads to Mata and Dell could have been in position to tackle Mata had he been a bit more switched on. It was clear they were making ground and offloading well so I think he was at fault there.

The second is just a poor attempted tackle as Fiji go wide which was similar to one of the Jones missed tackles against Wales.

Funny how Jones defence was a big talking point last week and no one has mentioned Dell at all this week.

jimbopip wrote:Morning my peeps, on my way to collect Pippetto from hospital.
This means that I WILL be at Murrayfield tomorrow.
Boks looking strong.

Great news Jimbo, hope the young lad is fully on the mend.