The French Open - 2019

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RG begins today, with Fed among those with a Sunday match. I'm going for Rafa for the title, with Djoko and Thiem his main rivals.

Fed should get thru a few rounds but is an unlikely winner, especially as he may have to get past Tsitsipas.

The women's title could go to anyone in the top 15. Halep would be a safe bet, but she can be injury prone. There are a lot of teenage players who could cause upsets. It's really difficult to forecast the eventual winner.

Thiem has "youth" and less miles on the clock (less depreciation) than Djokovic, while Djokovic has the spirit of goatness on his side.

Anisimova wins the first set on the tie breaker and has the break in the second set

Vondrousova wins the first set 7-5. Konta was 5-3 40-0 up and somewhat fell apart

Barty was 5-0 up after 13 minutes and still lost the set!

Barty at it again down 0-3 in the second and subsequently won 4 games on the spin. Real seesaw match

Barty wins 6 consecutive games to level it up

Barty was 5-0 up in that 1st set and still managed to lose it, though came back to win 2nd set whilst its on serve in 2nd set in Konta's match.

Just wanted to issue correction - earlier in this thread someone said Djokovic lost to Thiem at Roland Garros last year - he didn't - he lost in quarters to Ceccinato, who beat him with that dramatic 4th set tie-break - the unseeded Italian then lost to Thiem in semis.

Onto today's mens' semis, could the weather have an impact? Strong winds and cool blustery conditions forecast. May make the Fed v Nadal match slightly less one-sided. For the other match is Djokovic more adaptable to adverse conditions than Thiem, who has a v precise game with regards to timing, etc.

MrInvisible wrote:Barty was 5-0 up in that 1st set and still managed to lose it, though came back to win 2nd set whilst its on serve in 2nd set in Konta's match.

Just wanted to issue correction - earlier in this thread someone said Djokovic lost to Thiem at Roland Garros last year - he didn't - he lost in quarters to Ceccinato, who beat him with that dramatic 4th set tie-break - the unseeded Italian then lost to Thiem in semis.

Onto today's mens' semis, could the weather have an impact?  Strong winds and cool blustery conditions forecast.  May make the Fed v Nadal match slightly less one-sided.  For the other match is Djokovic more adaptable to adverse conditions than Thiem, who has a v precise game with regards to timing, etc.

I was me regarding Djokovic-Thiem and getting 2017 and 2018 mixed up. Getting too old

Vondrousova wins 7-5 7-6(2). Czech girl played consistently whereas Konta struggled with the big moments.

Barty wins 6-7(4) 6-3 6-3. The Aussie won 12 of the last 15 games.

Didn't see either of the matches but does feel like a huge missed opportunity for Konta. Whilst clay is typically her weakest surface, having played so well to get to this stage the draw had been opening up for her. I wonder if this was Konta's best chance of a slam? Hopefully though she can take the good form from this tournament into Wimbledon and the North American hardcourts.

I've never seen a Barty or Vondrousova match so no idea how the final is likely to play out.

Mens' semi final predictions: Nadal in 4 sets, Djokovic in 5 sets.

Federer earns a BP in Nadal's opening service game but fails to take it. Conditions look awful like they are playing in a mini tornado

Nadal breaks at times it looks like slow motion with these extreme conditions

Federer breaks back 2-3 on serve

Nadal breaks again. Truly the worst conditions I've seen in a long time

Nathaniel Jacobs wrote:Vondrousova wins the first set 7-5. Konta was 5-3 40-0 up and somewhat fell apart

I am of the view that "mental fragility" is somewhat linked to the players physical attributes & skills.  

Mental strength can be used to overcome physical limitations by ignoring pain et cetera.  Mental focus (being in the zone) enables someone whose skills are less robust to operate within their narrower margins of error.  

In this model Konta fell apart because deep down she realised she is not very good at tennis ... or at least at this level.

Nadal takes the first set 6-3

No name Bertie wrote:

Nathaniel Jacobs wrote:Vondrousova wins the first set 7-5. Konta was 5-3 40-0 up and somewhat fell apart

I am of the view that "mental fragility" is somewhat linked to the players physical attributes & skills.  

Mental strength can be used to overcome physical limitations by ignoring pain et cetera.  Mental focus (being in the zone) enables someone whose skills are less robust to operate within their narrower margins of error.  

In this model Konta fell apart because deep down she realised she is not very good at tennis ... or at least at this level.

TBH konta has only recently got back to consistently winning. And clay isn’t her favourite surface. Might help her at Wimbledon and NYC though.

Also when Konta got tight she tried to hit the ball even harder on clay you can actually try and out manoeuvre you opponent

Nadal more consistent despite the awful conditions. Federer trying to keep the rallies short but the conditions making that impossible at times.

The key for Federer is to sustain pressure on Nadal.  To have any chance Federer has to pressurise Nadal.  One would have to expect Federer will fade in later sets while Nadal becomes more confident.

From the BBC website:

Gregg Rusedski  (BBC Radio 5 Live):  "They've put a lot of water on the court to stop the clay from blowing about - that should be to Rafa's advantage"

I have to disagree with Gregg.  Having more water on the court means more water on the ball and less spin on the ball.  One of Nadal's advantages is the amount of spin he is able to place on the ball.  Federer hits flatter with less spin.  Hence the advantage with watering the court goes to Federer.

Federer gets the early break in the second set

Nadal breaks back immediately

The annoying thing from Fed's point of view is that he's playing quite well but is still up against it!

How did Rusedski come to his conclusion (see above)? I've always thought he was fairly un-analytical and certainly not the brightest button in the box

The ball boy just became the MVP, rubbish keeps flying around the court. What’s the solution stick it in the fridge. Thinking on the job

Nadal’s passing strokes are quite frankly ridiculous

Nadal breaks again and will serve for the second set. Heartbreaking loss of serve for Federer after being 40-0

Nadal goes 2 sets up, 6-3 6-4. Federer has played an incredible match so far but the Spaniard is different gravy.

Federer survived BP in the opening game of set 3, but Nadal still gains the break in Federer’s next service game. Nadal closing in

Nadal breaks again 4-1 incredible level by the Spaniard

Rusedski comes out with some total krusty the clown commentating. The wet court would clearly favour Federer more as the wet clay would reduce the impact of the spin which Nadal uses to get the ball up high on the Federer backhand. I remember a french open final between nadal and djokovic a good few years back when Nadal won the first two sets comfortably enough and then rain came. Djokovic won about 8 games in a row and was completely destroying nadal until play was postponed to the following day. Nadal ended up winning a tight 4th set but I remember him even saying the wetter conditions really hurt him

Nadal wins 6-3 6-4 6-2, becomes first male player to reach 12 finals at the same major - the others are Court/Australian Open and Navratilova/Wimbledon.

12 finals at the same major, that is an unbelievable accomplishment

All done and - very aptly considering the conditions - dusted.

I really like Thiem but come on Djokovic !!! I see him giving Nadal the toughest match in the final. I would be very surprised if this next semi final is finished in 3 sets

No name Bertie wrote:

Nathaniel Jacobs wrote:Vondrousova wins the first set 7-5. Konta was 5-3 40-0 up and somewhat fell apart

I am of the view that "mental fragility" is somewhat linked to the players physical attributes & skills.  

Mental strength can be used to overcome physical limitations by ignoring pain et cetera.  Mental focus (being in the zone) enables someone whose skills are less robust to operate within their narrower margins of error.  

In this model Konta fell apart because deep down she realised she is not very good at tennis ... or at least at this level.

So having got to the FO semi-final, leading 5-3 40-0, she suddenly realised she was not as good as her opponent at this level. That's a very laughable model!

Thiem breaks 2-1 up

Djokovic gamesmanship started already crying about conditions

All credit to Nadal for reaching yet another Final, with a standard of tennis that has barely dipped since his opening round. Some very notable chances there for Fed, but he was unable to make them count.

Federer - even in his advanced years - still poses a severe challenge to Rafa on hard courts, but clay is clearly a different proposition altogether. With today’s comfortable win, Rafa snaps a five match losing streak to Fed, and in so doing increases his significant h2h advantage yet further.

Now let’s see who awaits him in the title decider.

Thiem breaks again 5-2

Thiem takes the first set 6-2, Djokovic drops a set for the first time at 2019 RG

JuliusHMarx wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:

Nathaniel Jacobs wrote:Vondrousova wins the first set 7-5. Konta was 5-3 40-0 up and somewhat fell apart

I am of the view that "mental fragility" is somewhat linked to the players physical attributes & skills.  

Mental strength can be used to overcome physical limitations by ignoring pain et cetera.  Mental focus (being in the zone) enables someone whose skills are less robust to operate within their narrower margins of error.  

In this model Konta fell apart because deep down she realised she is not very good at tennis ... or at least at this level.

So having got to the FO semi-final, leading 5-3 40-0, she suddenly realised she was not as good as her opponent at this level. That's a very laughable model!

Are you familiar with the concept of geometric progression?  Reaching a final is not the same as reaching a semi-final and reaching a semi-final is not the same as reaching a quarter-final et cetera. What would you say is Konta's level?

Nathaniel Jacobs wrote:Thiem takes the first set 6-2, Djokovic drops a set for the first time at 2019 RG

If Thiem can prevent the expected Djokovic bounce back in the second set - then this could be very promising for him. Certainly a brilliant start.

No name Bertie wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:

Nathaniel Jacobs wrote:Vondrousova wins the first set 7-5. Konta was 5-3 40-0 up and somewhat fell apart

I am of the view that "mental fragility" is somewhat linked to the players physical attributes & skills.  

Mental strength can be used to overcome physical limitations by ignoring pain et cetera.  Mental focus (being in the zone) enables someone whose skills are less robust to operate within their narrower margins of error.  

In this model Konta fell apart because deep down she realised she is not very good at tennis ... or at least at this level.

So having got to the FO semi-final, leading 5-3 40-0, she suddenly realised she was not as good as her opponent at this level. That's a very laughable model!

Are you familiar with the concept of geometric progression?  Reaching a final is not the same as reaching a semi-final and reaching a semi-final is not the same as reaching a quarter-final et cetera.  What would you say is Konta's level?

What does my opinion of Konta's level have to do with the idea that her own self-belief suddenly faltered whilst winning against a player ranked much lower than her. Maybe nerves set in, but that's a different thing entirely.

Rain stops play

JuliusHMarx wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:

Nathaniel Jacobs wrote:Vondrousova wins the first set 7-5. Konta was 5-3 40-0 up and somewhat fell apart

I am of the view that "mental fragility" is somewhat linked to the players physical attributes & skills.  

Mental strength can be used to overcome physical limitations by ignoring pain et cetera.  Mental focus (being in the zone) enables someone whose skills are less robust to operate within their narrower margins of error.  

In this model Konta fell apart because deep down she realised she is not very good at tennis ... or at least at this level.

So having got to the FO semi-final, leading 5-3 40-0, she suddenly realised she was not as good as her opponent at this level. That's a very laughable model!

Are you familiar with the concept of geometric progression?  Reaching a final is not the same as reaching a semi-final and reaching a semi-final is not the same as reaching a quarter-final et cetera.  What would you say is Konta's level?

What does my opinion of Konta's level have to do with the idea that her own self-belief suddenly faltered whilst winning against a player ranked much lower than her. Maybe nerves set in, but that's a different thing entirely.

You are refusing to accept the context in which the model is being used.

Only a short delay and Thiem draws level 3-3

Djokovic takes the second set 6-3. game on

That short delay helped Djokovic gather himself. He was far more aggressive

Thiem breaks 3-1 third set