The US Open - 2019

First topic message reminder :

The last GS of the season opens in New York tomorrow. Without checking what was written at the start of the other three slams this year, I bet I'm probably repeating myself by saying it's going to be hard to look beyond anyone other than the Big Three to be in contention for the men's title.

Where could a challenge come from? The form man at the moment is Medvedev, but what shape is he going to be in after reaching three successive finals? Guys who've done well at the USO in the past include Cilic and Nishi. Nishi might do well, but Marin's had a poor season.

You wait, in vain it seems, for Zverev to show up at a Slam. Thiem is always tough to beat, but one feels clay is his best surface.

As for the women, may as well stick a pin in to discover the winner. Serena seems to do OK these days until having horror shows in finals. Halep is always worth putting money on. But it's very difficult to pick out a firm favourite. Virtually any of the top 20 could win it.

lags72 wrote:Berrettini v Monfils should be an interesting one ..... and could go either way.

I was impressed with Berrettini (vs Rublev). He did very well absorbing all the pace with good slices and keeping Rublev off-balance. It would be a good reward for his efforts to beat Monfils. Andujar looked like an accidental tourist vs La Monf.

Yes, thinking back to last year ..... that Millman defeat of Federer came from nowhere ! Big shock at the time.

Millman certainly hit an amazing purple patch on the day ; whilst Federer was strangely below par and subdued - all the more surprising with him having progressed so smoothly through the previous three rounds without dropping a set.

One of those quirky results that happen from time to time. Millman was brought back to earth and promptly despatched by Novak in the next round. As with so many unheralded giant-killers who have managed to take down one of the Big Three over the years, Millman might, quite possibly, never get another equally ‘prestigious’ win for the rest of his career. His ranking is lower now than when he scored his special victory, so it wasn’t really the start of something big. But all credit to the guy : he’s making a living from sport .... which many of us would dearly love to be able to do

Concerning Fed-Millman. Sometimes a big win over a highly-ranked player is followed by a defeat and a return to comparative obscurity.

I'm thinking Stakhovsy and Darcis. George Bastl of Switzerland shocked Sampras at what turned out to be Pete's last Wimbledon in 2002. Bastl didn't do much after that.

Going further back, anyone remember Peter Doohan? He was an Aussie journeyman who beat Boris Becker at Wimbledon in 1987. Very little was heard of him after that.

One guy who went on to a good career (indeed, he's still playing) is Ivo Karlovic. I'd never heard of him when he beat defending champion Lleyton Hewitt in the opening match at Wimbledon in 2003.

sirfredperry wrote: Sometimes a big win over a highly-ranked player is followed by a defeat and a return to comparative obscurity.

Should we add Ancic to this list, or Horna, or Delbonis, or Rosol, or Muller?

Lfan: Ancic was unlucky in that illness pretty much ended his career. Rosol I left out of my list as he did OK-ish after beating Rafa. Muller had had a pretty good career before toppling Nadal.

Remind me about Horna and Delbonis?

Konta loses in straight sets to Svitolina. Expect a press conference meltdown now.

The Medvedev machine powers past Stan .... drops a set, but sees out the match comfortably 6-1 in the fourth.

So we can safely call him a contender now ... right ?

Wawrinka missed chances in the first set TB, which just spiraled downhill. He struggled much to even get the third set.

Good to see Medvedev progress.

Let us see who comes out of the other QF. If Federer gets to SF, his recent Miami win will stand him in good stead.

lags72 wrote:

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With so many weird happenings on the men’s side already - starting right from the opening day - I guess it’s hard to rule out anything

Whilst half-expecting the unexpected as I penned this yesterday, I couldn’t really imagine that Federer’s old back problems would suddenly flare up to haunt him once again.

He goes down in five to Dimitrov who is able to take full advantage, with some quality play throughout the course of the match (other than in the opening set) and makes his first (?) USO SF.

By all accounts (didn’t actually see the match ), Federer’s troubles became apparent early in the fourth as the forehand errors began to mount alarmingly.

Without a fully-functioning serve and with hampered movement all-round, he would have been in no state to take on Medvedev anyway.

Rafa will no doubt be wearing a big smile at this latest twist. That much-anticipated NY meeting seems fated never to happen.

PS : I think the ranking points are such that Rafa could very possibly overtake Djokovic for the year-end top spot ..... ?

Quirky trivia stat fact (courtesy of CNN news) :

Dimitrov is the lowest-ranked grand slam semifinalist since No. 94 Rainer Schuettler at Wimbledon in 2008 and the lowest-ranked US Open semifinalist since Jimmy Connors at No. 174 in 1991.

Well Lags and I both thought something might happen, although I didn't factor in an injury.

Dimi's current ranking is ridiculously low. He's been as high as three. It's always tough to follow up a big win but I think he can topple Medvedev.

I keep getting Medvedev predictions wrong, though, so no one should listen to me! Whatever happens we'll have a new GS finalist.

Despite last night's disappointment, Fed has still had a good GS year. QF, SF, F and QF is pretty respectable.

Rafa should have few problems with Schwartzman and I'm taking Monfils to come thru in the other QF.

We'll have at least one new GS finalist in the women, too. I think Andreescu will win today, but Vekic-Bencic could go either way.

The draw has spectacularly opened up for Nadal here. I seem to remember he didn't face anyone in the top 20 in his USO 2017 win and also that he's generally had unusually soft draws until the final in his other 2 USO wins. Can't help but feeling that if he goes on to win then his USO haul will kind of flatter him compared to his actual hard court pedigree. That said, perhaps it makes up for the much tougher time he's faced at Australia over the years with injury and narrow 5 set final losses.

The return of Feds back problems at 38 could spell the end for him imo. Think Medvedev vs. Dimi could be a cracker! I rate the Russian highly based on what I've seen of him.

We'll have to wait and see how bad Fed's back is.

Came across an interview Fed gave to US TV 15 years ago on the day after he won his first USO. Rog was asked if he could stay at the top for 10 years. His reply was interesting. The first thing he said was that it would depend on his being injury free.

Even then he realised the physical demands that would be made on him if he was to have a long, successful career.

All of the Big Four have had to contend with injuries and there have been periods when any one of them has been out of action for quite a while. But the fact that they have all gone on for as long as they have is testimony to their hard work in getting into the best shape they can.

sirfredperry wrote:

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Despite last night's disappointment, Fed has still had a good GS year. QF, SF, F and QF is pretty respectable.

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Well played Grigor

At the post-match presser, Federer was about as low as I can ever remember seeing him. Certainly he looked more dejected even than after the Wimbledon Final .... where of course he held two championship points.  

It’s understandable he would rue this lost opportunity to capitalise on performances seen in the two previous rounds, in which his level had set the scene for another serious USO title opportunity, after so many years since his last. At Wimbledon and Australia, he has been able to add in recent years to past glories from his peak ;  but NY has in some ways been a less happy hunting ground.

He was keen to downplay the injury factor out of respect for Dimi - but he must surely have felt it cruel that the trouble should suddenly come up at such a crucial time.  

Amidst all the disappointment, he did say that he has had a good season  - and the 2019 Slam record quoted by sfp above is almost certainly way better than anything ever previously achieved by a player of the same age.

More quarters later  - but for Rafa the title is now surely his. Unless the stadium is struck by a bolt of lightning on Sunday.

Excellent match report here

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/03/sports/tennis/us-open-daniil-medvedev-federer-.html

Thanks for the link above, Lags. Says that Medvedev is also not in absolutely great shape - hardly surprising given his workload of late.

This suggests that Dimi may be able to edge him and make the final. Doubt if Medvedev will have such a packed schedule during the US hard-court swing next year.

With Djoko and Fed nursing injuries, Nadal has the chance to get back the number one spot. One day, no doubt, we will actually be talking about a number one from outside the Big Four.

No name Bertie wrote:Mens Draw:
https://www.usopen.org/en_US/draws/index.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_US_Open_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_Singles

...

All in all I think there is a very good likelihood of a:
Federer vs Djokovic semi-final and a Thiem vs Nadal semi-final.  I think Nadal is in great form and physical shape coming into this tournament ... It wouldn't surprise me if either Djokovic or Federer slip up before reaching the semi-final except I can't really identify any dangerous player likely to beat them (I don't rate Medvedev yet for the slams).

Bit in bold - I got a lot of things wrong apart from that.

With Djokovic the issue is his body cannot sustain the year long intensity of the ATP tour - he was carrying an injury leading into this tournament.

With Federer he reported his back problem developed earlier in the day - so an injury resulting from the intensity required of his body for four round of tournament tennis.

If Federer's body is no longer able to sustain the vigours of tournament tennis then retirement cannot be very far away.  He is 38 so maybe that is stating the bleeding obvious.

Yes, every time these sort of losses happen, the retirement word will inevitably come up.

I seem to recall a couple of months back, well before the USO, Federer saying that ‘the team’ had not put anything firm in his schedule beyond Wimbledon 2020 ..... indicating perhaps that the end game really is drawing close. Much will depend on just how serious the injury proves to be, but it’s very likely that he is now counting in months now rather than years.

And yet ...... and yet .... you can’t help wonder where that leaves 99% of everyone else on Tour !  By which I mean, Fed is still comfortably at number 3, in a season where he has actually won more official matches to date - 43 - than all other players but two (Nadal and Medvedev). Plus, each of those wins has been over players younger than himself - sometimes 15 years younger or more  

What is clear, however, is that Federer’s losses will always attract a lot of scrutiny, and what might be considered normal for most other players is viewed very differently, both in the context of his past achievements, and of the very high standards he still sets for himself.

Although Fed won the AO in 2018, he's arguably had a better season this year than last, partly due to the fact that he had a quite reasonable European clay-court season which he'd skipped the previous two years.

The crowning achievement would have been to win Wimbledon, beating Rafa and Djoko in successive matches. Well, he came as close as he could.

Just wonder how much the Rafa semi-final win at SW19 - his best result of 2019? - took out of him. Been watching some highlights of that semi again. Gosh, Rafa forces you into a massive mental and physical effort; yet here was Fed playing flat out tennis and coming out on top.

As I write, Benic and Vekic are away in their quarter. This is a really difficult one to predict. It's 3-3 in the first at the moment. A three-setter coming up? Could well be. I'm going to take Vekic. If it's close she has a better temperament. I recall Bencic having a bit of a meltdown at Wimbledon when she started losing.

Always sad, to me at least, to see Fed go out of a tournament. He's the only athlete that I'm interested in these days.

Atila wrote:Always sad, to me at least, to see Fed go out of a tournament. He's the only athlete that I'm interested in these days.

Well, Switzerland do have a semi-finalist at the USO. Bencic has just beaten Vekic in straight sets. So much for my prediction that this would be a three-setter and that Vekic would win.

Yes, straight sets for Bencic but I heard it was still an engaging match .... ?  They are apparently really good friends on the Tour, and that can often be a hindrance, so to speak.

Monfils a set up v Berrettini, and his greater depth of experience makes him a reasonably clear favourite to see it through.

sirfredperry wrote:

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Just wonder how much the Rafa semi-final win at SW19 - his best result of 2019? - took out of him. Been watching some highlights of that semi again. Gosh, Rafa forces you into a massive mental and physical effort; yet here was Fed playing flat out tennis and coming out on top.

..............

That SF was certainly a great result for Federer and he was understandably fatigued to some degree after the match. But with a bit of R&R, he was then able to go toe-to-toe with Djokovic over five sets and five hours  - and without looking physically troubled or drained. It was - surprisingly - Djokovic who seemed to be more in ‘survival mode’, and who was able to benefit from Fed’s sudden dip in play in those TB’s.

If Fed had been able to produce the same form v Dimitrov yesterday, things would have ended very differently, (and much more quickly !) ..... but it’s already history now I guess.

sirfredperry wrote:... Anyone notice ... lovebirds ...  Stan/Vekic are ... still in the tournament!

sirfredperry wrote: ... So much for my prediction ... that Vekic would win.

Stan loses then Vekic loses - they must be inseparable.

If Serena Williams wins, and there is no reason why she shouldn't given that no other woman left in the tournament has even been to a grand slam final before, then she will equal Margaret Court's all time singles record of 24 slams and it would be exactly 20 years since winning her first singles slam title back in 1999 at the US Open.

Serena Williams is about 2 months younger than Roger Federer.

Damn, I wish Graf could have continued for a few more years.

Another five setter, currently locked at 2-2 in the decider .....

Berrettini broken when serving for match at 5-3.
Will he pay the price ......... ??

Regarding when Federer finally decides to call it a day I still reckon he'll keep going til end of 2020 - the Olympics is a big deal for him and he'll be determined to play one final time to have a go at that elusive singles gold. I can see him bowing out either at 2020 Basel, or (if he's ranked high enough) at the end of year Masters. I also think he'll skip the clay next season.

Serena has been looking in v good nick this tournament unlike many other recent slams, and I think she should win the title fairly easily. I also agree that with Djokovic and Federer out, Nadal has to be a pretty strong favourite to win the men's title with Schwartzman probably giving him the toughest test in his 3 final matches.

Berrettini did well to come thru, given he blew a lead and some MPs in that final set. Four-hour match, though, so will have taken a lot out of him.

By all accounts, Diego S gave Rafa a helluva match even though the scoreboard doesn't show it. Rafa SHOULD win the whole thing now.

Women's semis today. I think Andreescu will bt Bencic. My guess is that Serena, even if she does get thru to the final, will not take the trophy. She's been smashed in her last three GS finals.

However, apart from having a feeling that Dimi might upset Fed, I've been rubbish with my predictions in this tournament.

Taking previous GS performances into account, this must be one of the least experienced Slam semi-final line-ups in both the men's and women's draws for some time.

Only three of the eight s-fs have reached a slam semi before and only two have got to a final. (last year in New York the men's semi-finalists were Rafa, delpo, Nishi and Djoko).

Jamie Murray and Skupski taking on the number one seeds in the doubles. 3-3 in the first at the moment.

Bit weird not having any singles until midnight UK time today. Svitolina/Wms on first. Svito's only win against Serena came in the 2016 Olympics.

Realised that my post above about s-f GS appearances was wrong. I forgot that Svito had reached the Wimbledon last four this year.

For those who like their stats, here is something from the WTA website: "Bianca Andreescu is the fourth player in the Open Era to reach the US Open semifinals on her debut at Flushing Meadows, following 1971 semifinalist Chris Evert, 1978 runner-up Pam Shriver and 1997 runner-up Venus Williams."

So, it's Serena v Andreescu in the women's final. Williams overpowered Svitolina while Bianca came back from a double break down in the second set to bt Bencic who could easily have won in straight sets.

Andreescu's form this year has been remarkable. She had a big win early on, was then out injured for quite a while and has now powered thru the North American hardcourt season.

She now has a chance to become the first teenaged GS winner since Sharapova in 2006.

Serena will be favourite, though. But she has not only lost her last three GS finals but been smashed in all of them. This Slam record chasing seems to have got to her.

Even so, if Serena plays well she'll win. But Andreescu appears a very confident person and will not be phased about appearing in her first Slam final.

Men's semis today. Will Medvedev finally run out of steam? Conversely, will Dimi feel he's done the hard bit by beating Fed and then come a cropper in his next match?
I've continually been forecasting defeats for Medvedev in this tournament and have continually got it wrong. I've not learnt my lesson, though, and I'm going for Dimi.

Nadal is firm favourite against Berrettini. You'll recall the Italian coming up against Rog at Wimbledon a few weeks ago and getting blown away.

Nadal has been vulnerable at Slams to big-serving opponents (Tsonga, Rosol, Brown, Muller) but it would be a major shock if he succumbed today.

Daniil Medvedev survived a tough first set against Grigor Dimitrov to ultimately outclass the Bulgarian 7-6(5) 6-4 6-3. Fourth consecutive final for the young Russian as the next gen finally showing up on the big stage.
Medvedev 20-2 on this American hard court swing. Really staggering how he just keeps going

It's Rafa v Medvedev in the final.

I've been constantly wrong practically throughout the tournament about Med's staying power and I totally misread it again in his semi.

Haven't seen any of it yet, but presume Dimi didn't play anything like as well as he did against Fed. That so often happens when a guy knocks out one of the big boys.

Reading the report of the Rafa match I see Berrettini was 4-0 and then 6-4 up in the tiebreak but played a couple of poor points and the match was pretty much gone from there.

I hesitate to write off Medvedev once more, but surely it's asking too much of him to outlast Rafa in a GS final. Apart from Rog and Djoko, only Stan has beaten Rafa in a slam title match and then Rafa was injured.

Women's final today. I think Serena will have to be below par for Andreescu to win. But Williams has been rubbish in her last three slam finals, so who knows?

Medvedev has been remarkable on this US hard court run, but to win the final he’ll need to play the match of his life. Nadal only recently destroyed him in Canada. I think it’s one step too far for the young Russian.

Nathaniel Jacobs wrote:Medvedev has been remarkable on this US hard court run, but to win the final he’ll need to play the match of his life. Nadal only recently destroyed him in Canada. I think it’s one step too far for the young Russian.

Nat J - I keep thinking along the same lines, feeling Medvedev surely can't keep up his winning run. Been repeatedly wrong.

But Rafa's excellent GS final record cannot be overlooked. Also, even if Medvedev gets off to a good start, it's unlikely to be a short match, which aint gonna help the Russian.

Haven't worked out what a Rafa victory will mean in terms of year-end number one. Rafa tends to ease off/not play at all towards the end of the season but then we're not sure how fit Djoko is going to be.

If it all works out as expected it will mean the last 12 slams have been won by Rafa (5), Djoko (4) and Fed (3).

Going back 10 years to the period 2007-09, the Big Three won 11 of the 12 slams. Plus ca change.....

I have been hugely impressed by Medvedev these past few weeks. I see his game as a sort of Djokovic-Murray hybrid: consistent depth like djokovic, but using more slice on defence like Murray. His shot selection has been superb too. On paper I think he has the type of game which should trouble Rafa, but he got thoroughly trounced in Montreal. He should resist using slice against Rafa as I am always amazed how well he handles it, using the extra time to get his forehand into play and bullying the opponent. This is the first "next gen" appearance in a slam final and it would be great for tennis if Medvedev could push Nadal, even if he doesn't win it.

Medvedev is 23. Am trying to work out when there was a younger GS finalist. Delpo in 09 at the USO, perhaps?

The women, of course, have had two teenaged Slam finalists this year.

Not sure he possesses enough weapons to trouble Rafa in the final but fair play to Medvedev for showing a good bit of consistency and resilience - traits that have been all too lacking in the NextGen. In the best possible way he seems like a bit of a budget Djokovic in that he can just act as a wall in defence and is very difficult to break down.

Congratulations to Bianca Andreesco. Serena loses again. I won't pretend that I'm sad to Serena lose. She's obviously a great tennis player but I've never seen the press and media so eager to anoint someone as the greatest of all time. I never saw this with Martina, Chris or Steffi and it saddens me to see Margaret Court Smith's record degraded with all this "She won AO titles when no one wanted to go to Australia" stuff.

Personally, I think Serena could yet go on to win 24 and 25 GS titles. But to me, she still looks out of shape for a professional athlete.

Serena Williams for me isn't and never will be the GOAT, the likes of Steffi and Martina never had their sister tanking finals.

Congrats to Andreescu what outstanding season she's had a major and two ladies equivalent of masters 1000s. With the fragile nature of many of ladies, Andreescu could become the dominant player of her generation.

Well the GS final Williams' woes continue as Serena loses her fourth successive Slam title match.

Two of those defeats came against former GS winners and players who had been number one. But her two New York losses have come against young women playing in their first Slam final.

It could be argued that Serena, now a mother and at an advanced age, is doing well to keep reaching finals. But you have to wonder if she has another GS title in her.

Before we can judge just where Andreescu ends up, we must take into account the likes of Bouchard and Ostapenko. Genie burst on to the scene a few years back, made a Wimbledon final, seemingly had her head turned by off-the-court staff and is now languishing down the rankings.

Ostapenko was terrific winning the French but she, too, has slid down the rankings.

Andreescu, I think, is different. She appears a very confident young lady and you can easily see her reaching number one, possibly as early as next year.

Rafa v Medvedev for the US title tonight. I feel that come midnight UK time Rafa will be just one GS behind Fed.

While the Big Three continue to dominate the men's game, the women's crowns have adorned numerous heads in recent times.

I make it that there are now FOURTEEN current players who've won a Slam, nine of whom have also reached number one.

February 1 2004 - that was the last day when a player outside the Big Four was men's number one.

I've somehow not seen any of this year's US Open unfortunately - would have liked to have seen Dan Evans' first couple of matches, Medvedev, early stages of Djoko v Wawrinka and seen how Nadal was hitting the ball. From what I heard on radio commentaries Andreescu played v well, but I would be v cautious about over-hyping her - in addition to some of the other examples, we've also had Osaka, who has the tools shot-wise to dominate the game but appears to lack the appetite for being in limelight as number 1 nor the drive to play week-in week-out on the tour. We have had a lot of false starts in the womens' game in recent years - players have flattered to deceive, though to be fair the younger players have been reaching slam finals and winning them on occasion, unlike in the mens' game.

Considering the level that Nadal has played in all the slams in past couple of years he has been unlucky not to have picked up more slam titles, so I think he was due a bit of luck in not having to face Federer or Djokovic at US Open. I expect him to beat Medvedev reasonably comfortably though I'm not expecting it to be anywhere near as one-sided as their recent final in Montreal.

Whatever happens though its been a great summer North American hardcourt season for Medvedev. Interesting bit of trivia - I heard that one reason he has given for his improved form this year is that he has decided to curtail one of his hobbies which had been impacting his energy levels - as an avid gamer he used to spend plenty of hours through the night gaming, affecting his sleep, and now is benefiting from better sleep patterns.

Nathaniel Jacobs wrote:Daniil Medvedev ... Fourth consecutive final ... 20-2 on this American hard court swing. Really staggering how he just keeps going

I hope Medvedev doesn't end up like another Raonic.  

Raonic made the 2016 Wimbledon final aged 25 - was beaten by Andy Murray in straight sets in a well contested final involving two tie breaks.  But following from that has never made a semi-final (4 x Quarter-Finals, 3 x 4th rounds, 1 x 2R, 1 x 1R and four absentees).  Medvedev is taller than Raonic (6'6" versus 6'5") and looks more gangly.  

We know 6'6" Del Potro broke down soon after his first grand slam final appearance in 2009 (which he won) - not appearing in another final since end of 2018.  He is now back injured.  Del Potro was better than Medvedev and really looked like he might join the big four.  But his body broke down.

MrInvisible wrote:... I heard that one reason he has given for his improved form this year is that he has decided to curtail one of his hobbies which had been impacting his energy levels - as an avid gamer he used to spend plenty of hours through the night gaming, affecting his sleep, and now is benefiting from better sleep patterns.

Thanks for that insight - I thought he might be taking the power pills.

It will be interesting to see if Medvedev becomes a permanent feature of the latter end of slams and masters after this American hard court swing - which is really looking like a genuine breakthrough for him.  

It seems to me he will either suffer physical breakdowns (with a subsequent stop start type of career) or he might reveal himself to have the type of elastic body Djokovic had (although Djokovic is only 6'2").

Doubt whether Andreescu, should she get to number one, will fail to embrace it in the way Osaka did. Can't think of a less-confident number one than Naomi, nor someone who put so much pressure on themselves.

Raonic has rarely had an injury-free season. Compare him with Richard Krajicek who, they say, had only one completely injury-free season. That was 1996 when he went on to....win Wimbledon.

Nadal v Medvedev about to get under way. You feel Medvedev has to win the first set to have any chance.

Rafa is such a brilliant front runner. Don't think he's ever lost a GS final after winning the opening set. The Russian may have to play the crowd, too. There were a few boos as he came on.

Rafa serves first and takes the first game after warding off a BP.

Rafa is broken in game three but breaks straight back.

Rafa takes the first set 7-5. Is that pretty well the match?