QF4 - Match Thread - Japan v South Africa - 20/10/19 - K/O 11:15 BST

[Guest]

Thought I'd get these made nice and early for a few reasons - but one being that we're already now looking ahead to the QFs with several teams having finished their group stage, so it's all heating up for the proper knockout stuff...barring any more disruption.

Japan



Team:


South Africa



Team: Willie le Roux, Cheslin Kolbe, Lukhanyo Am, Damian de Allende, Makazole Mapimpi, Handré Pollard, Faf de Klerk, Duane Vermeulen, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (C), Lood de Jager, Eben Etzebeth, Frans Malherbe, Bongi Mbonambi, Tendai Mtawarira.

Reps: Malcolm Marx, Steven Kitshoff, Vincent Koch, RG Snyman, Franco Mostert, Francois Louw, Herschel Jantjies, Frans Steyn.



Venue: Tokyo
Referee: Wayne Barnes
AR1: Ben O'Keeffe
AR2: Luke Pearce
TMO: Rowan Kitt

[tigertattie]

Japan it is.

Are SA worried? Japan beat them last World Cup but SA spanked Japan in the warm up game just a few weeks back.

Japan are riding the crest of a wave right now though.

[Old Man]

Will be a good match, SA certainly won’t be going on holiday this week and won’t underestimate Japan ever again.

They will betaking this match very serious.

[Collapse2005]

SA did hammer Japan just before the RWC. I wonder will it play out the same way.

[Taylorman]

kudos to Japan and Jamie Joseph who continues the kiwi overseas coaching success. Reflects the increasing support of the sport in Japan over the years in both the local and residence based player quality levels.

Easily the side of the event so far and they proved the win vs Ireland was not a fluke.

SA is a much tougher prospect and although I thought Scotland would win this I still see Japans giant killing days come to an end next week.

Now it’s about sustaining a campaign at the highest level and frankly neither Ireland’s nor Scotland’s levels this tourney reflected that.

Ireland get half a pass for underestimating Japan where they would probably beat them in a rematch but NZ get to reply to the last meeting between the two...a win to Ireland last year and will be leaving nothing unturned over the next week to plot a win over Ireland.

Glad we finally have clarity of who we are playing.

[Poorfour]

SA did hammer Japan just before the RWC. I wonder will it play out the same way.

We keep getting told to read nothing into Wales and Ireland’s performances in the warm up games. Why should Japan be any different? No-one thought they had the beating of Ireland, until they did. No-one thought they had the beating of South Africa in 2015, until they did.

It’s a big ask to win but I expect them to give South Africa a lot of trouble.

[Collapse2005]

Im not saying it will play out the same way it just gives the tie another sub plot.

[Taylorman]

I think you had a fast improving SH style side, which, unlike the other SH sides, is actually benefitting from importing large dollops of SH IP and players over the years. Unlike the PI sides, who’s players are scattered mostly throughout Europe, Japan has slowly but surely built up both its local and residence based talent.

But they’re still largely SH based, and simply caught the two northern sides out I think because they just hadn’t worked them out.

SA are more familiar with them, and Jamie Joseph’s style. He had the Highlanders for years.

Japan could upset yet again but they’re going to yield at some point.

But who knows.

Next weekend at least we are back to the real stuff...knockout rugby.

[Collapse2005]

More PI players in NZ than anywhere Taylorman.

[Guest]

Have to hope Japan turn up and that they haven't already played their WC final.

I think they will, but considering their weak spots, SA could possibly blow this game away in the opening 30 minutes.

Cannot for the life of me see SA losing this, or Japan winning, but if Japan do move the ball wide they can sucker punch and counterattack and that always, always gives a team a chance.

Showed they can come back from slow starts though - both v Scotland and Ireland.

Again, hopefully a great game.

[Taylorman]

More PI players in NZ than anywhere Taylorman.

aha, Fiji, Samoa and Tonga didnt have any that I could see...oh, you mean NZ born ones?

[TJ]

I can see Japan winning this. the biggest strongest players in the world are no use if they spend all game chasing after wee fast guys! The way Japan played against Ireland and Scotland I see a brand of rugby that will be very hard for SA to match. Japan are so quick to be organised in both defense and attack that very few if any gaps appear, their discipline is first class in that they give away very few penalties

[No 7&1/2]

In regards to that last point I do wonder if it's because they look so unorthodox at times, particularly at the breakdown.

[carpet baboon]

Japan by 6

[Old Man]

I can see Japan winning this.  the biggest strongest players in the world are no use if they spend all game chasing after wee fast guys!  The way Japan played against Ireland and Scotland I see a brand of rugby that will be very hard for SA to match.  Japan are so quick to be organised in both defense and attack that very few if any gaps appear, their discipline is first class in that they give away very few penalties

You have to assume that Rassie Erasmus will be smart enough to analyse both matches in detail, the SA rush defence and the physicality with which they play will be hard for Japan to manage.

Just look at what happened with the almost comeback when Scotland started hitting the breakdown hard, their counter rucking won them quite a few turnovers.

and then you have to consider the pace of the SA backline.

Might be tougher for Japan than expected. In September prior to the RWC SA beat Japan rather comfortably.

[robbo277]

It's probably the quarter final everyone not supporting Pool A/B teams wanted. The hosts through and having a rematch against South Africa.

It's a hard one to call on form. Basically ignore anything pre-WC for Japan because they're another level right now. The only question is, noone knows how high they can go.

With a softer lead-in South Africa may be fresher and that may have an advantage for Japan. But the crowd will be up for it, the players could be up for it and I think most neutrals are billing this as the tie of the round.

[majesticimperialman]

Well Japan have neaten SA before, in the last Rugby World Cup. And Japan seem a lot fitter now than they was then.

So may be , may be we might see a repeat of that game 4 years ago.

[Collapse2005]

I can see Japan winning this.  the biggest strongest players in the world are no use if they spend all game chasing after wee fast guys!  The way Japan played against Ireland and Scotland I see a brand of rugby that will be very hard for SA to match.  Japan are so quick to be organised in both defense and attack that very few if any gaps appear, their discipline is first class in that they give away very few penalties

You have to assume that Rassie Erasmus will be smart enough to analyse both matches in detail, the SA rush defence and the physicality with which they play will be hard for Japan to manage.

Just look at what happened with the almost comeback when Scotland started hitting the breakdown hard, their counter rucking won them quite a few turnovers.

and then you have to consider the pace of the SA backline.

Might be tougher for Japan than expected. In September prior to the RWC SA beat Japan rather comfortably.

You might find refs penalise SA on the rush for offside a bit more v Japan. They seem to be getting the 50 50 calls here while also not getting penalised much for being offside themselves much.

[Collapse2005]

I think SA will beat them easily enough again though. Japan will also surely be tired after the game yesterday.

[Old Man]

Well Japan have neaten SA before, in the last Rugby World Cup. And Japan seem a lot fitter now than they was then.

So may be , may be we might see a repeat of that game 4 years ago.

4 years ago Heyneke Meyer took his foot off the pedal, gave the guys a few days off and went into the match expecting to drub Japan.

This isn’t going to be that team. I am not saying Japan can’t win, and if they beat the Boks then the Boks don’t deserve to be there.

I will be very surprised if Rassie has not prepared his team well for this. Very surprised.

[Collapse2005]

Was talking to some Boks fans at the SA v Italy game and they said jokingly that they were really happy Japan beat Ireland as they now dont have to be the only tier 1 nation that lost to Japan at the RWC. Thought is was kind of funny. Maybe it would be good for Ireland if the Boks take that mantle back from us now.

[Taylorman]

Well Japan have neaten SA before, in the last Rugby World Cup. And Japan seem a lot fitter now than they was then.

So may be , may be we might see a repeat of that game 4 years ago.

4 years ago Heyneke Meyer took his foot off the pedal, gave the guys a few days off and went into the match expecting to drub Japan.

This isn’t going to be that team. I am not saying Japan can’t win, and if they beat the Boks then the Boks don’t deserve to be there.

I will be very surprised if Rassie has not prepared his team well for this. Very surprised.

I’ll say. Not often you get to exact revenge like this either.
The Jap fans will be saying remember the last time...

ABs will use similar mindset for Ireland, they don’t often lose two in a row to the same side. It’s 12 months but the scenarios similar, and useful.

[SecretFly]

Scotland already have, Guns.  They now have the Rising Sun Cup.

[SecretFly]

Early senses suggest to me that SA has seen enough of Japan's 2019 version A game now to be ready for what's coming. It might be the game that finally shows Japan their 'Tier 2' status in stark reality.
Scotland were allowed get back to within striking distance. Japan have used mucho energy to get this far.

One thing is certain, it now won't be a shock if Japan manages to beat SA again. They've used up all their shock cards! But will it be a shock if they succumb to the SA grind machine? For me, no.

[Old Man]

Well Japan have neaten SA before, in the last Rugby World Cup. And Japan seem a lot fitter now than they was then.

So may be , may be we might see a repeat of that game 4 years ago.

4 years ago Heyneke Meyer took his foot off the pedal, gave the guys a few days off and went into the match expecting to drub Japan.

This isn’t going to be that team. I am not saying Japan can’t win, and if they beat the Boks then the Boks don’t deserve to be there.

I will be very surprised if Rassie has not prepared his team well for this. Very surprised.

I’ll say. Not often you get to exact revenge like this either.
The Jap fans will be saying remember the last time...

ABs will use similar mindset for Ireland, they don’t often lose two in a row to the same side. It’s 12 months but the scenarios similar, and useful.

When the Boks arrived two weeks before the RWC started the week before their warm up match the Japanese media, shops, fans et all reminded the Springboks of that fateful day in 2015 constantly, then got beat 42-7

[SecretFly]

ABs will use similar mindset for Ireland, they don’t often lose two in a row to the same side. It’s 12 months but the scenarios similar, and useful.

Something for the new ABs coach to ruminate on into next year - Revenge for losing to the same side three in a row.

[SecretFly]

Fake news Old Man.....

You're stealing a point from history ain't you?

[Collapse2005]

Scotland already have, Guns.  They now have the Rising Sun Cup.

Duh, you are absolutely right and I watched that game. Thanks Scotland.

[eirebilly]

I think Japan will give SA a good run but I think SA just have too much and will win.

Japan wont be afforded the same attacking lines that they created against Ireland and Scotland.

[Poorfour]

Early senses suggest to me that SA has seen enough of Japan's 2019 version A game now to be ready for what's coming.  It might be the game that finally shows Japan their 'Tier 2' status in stark reality.  
Scotland were allowed get back to within striking distance.  Japan have used mucho energy to get this far.  

One thing is certain, it now won't be a shock if Japan manages to beat SA again.  They've used up all their shock cards!  But will it be a shock if they succumb to the SA grind machine?  For me, no.

Japan definitely eased off a bit once they got the fourth try - but by that point they knew that they would have to concede 29 unanswered points for Scotland to knock them out. When they had to tighten up and choke the life out of the game, they were able to.

Beating South Africa again, especially in a knockout match, is a tough ask. The Boks are unquestionably favourites for this one. But I think Japan have a chance. The Boks played well against NZ in two 20 minute bursts, but didn’t get enough points on the board while they had the upper hand. Japan could present similar problems: if they aren’t completely overpowered in the initial onslaught, they will keep tackling and tackling and tackling until they get the ball. 

And once they have the ball they’ve shown some good ability to manipulate defences. Their style of play is difficult to defend against: against Scotland, they had waves of runners coming at speed on an inside line to take the reverse pass and exploit the gaps in their drift defence - and when Scotland stayed tight to prevent that, they were able to get the ball wide quickly for Matsushima to use the space. It’s a pretty basic tactic, but they can do it repeatedly at high speed and most defences will eventually crack under the pressure.

I think talk of mental fatigue is overstated as well. A lot of people thought they would be drained after the Ireland game and Scotland would exploit it. Didn’t happen. They’ve got a chance to make history with no real burden of expectation. 12 of the squad are over 30, so they probably don’t have another RWC cycle in them and can play every game like it’s their last, with a crowd roaring them on. 

Joseph isn’t going to do a number of Rassie like Eddie did on Meyer... but this version of Japan doesn’t rely on surprise. You know what they’re going to do, the question is whether you can keep up with them for long enough to stop them over 80 minutes.

[Guest]

Was talking to some Boks fans at the SA v Italy game and they said jokingly that they were really happy Japan beat Ireland as they now dont have to be the only tier 1 nation that lost to Japan at the RWC. Thought is was kind of funny. Maybe it would be good for Ireland if the Boks take that mantle back from us now.

I know Scotland aren't great but are they relegated to tier 2?

[Guest]

How many SA'n players (and Japanese for that matter) have survived from the game 4 years ago?

[Old Man]

Beast.
Pieter Steph du Toit

Eben , Kolisi and Pollard was on the bench.

[robbo277]

Reasons I hope France get knocked out in the pool stages in 2023:

1.

Was talking to some Boks fans at the SA v Italy game and they said jokingly that they were really happy Japan beat Ireland as they now dont have to be the only tier 1 nation that lost to Japan at the RWC. Thought is was kind of funny. Maybe it would be good for Ireland if the Boks take that mantle back from us now.

[Galted]

Fake news Old Man.....

You're stealing a point from history ain't you?

He's adding a point to history, it was only 41-7.

[Old Man]

Fake news Old Man.....

You're stealing a point from history ain't you?

He's adding a point to history, it was only 41-7.

Damn, though I could get away with that. My memory is failing in my old age, or it could just be the fables get bigger and bigger

[Galted]

Haha, I'm sure the score will be forgotten no matter what happens on Sunday.

[LondonTiger]

Wayne Barnes referee, OP updated.

[Old Man]

Yeah he isn’t bad.

[Old Man]

Looking forward to this match, Springboks have been low profile this tournament, quietly going about their business.

Not many are talking about them as a threat for the trophy.

It seems the team is quietly confident and focused.

[Collapse2005]

Looking forward to this match, Springboks have been low profile this tournament, quietly going about their business.

Not many are talking about them as a threat for the trophy.

It seems the team is quietly confident and focused.

Not sure thats true, lots of people have been calling them one of the favorites even before the tournament began. Not a bad route to the final now too.

[LondonTiger]

Looking forward to this match, Springboks have been low profile this tournament, quietly going about their business.

Not many are talking about them as a threat for the trophy.

It seems the team is quietly confident and focused.

Until the first game pretty much everyone was talking them up. Personally I would have them as favourites to make the final from that half (noting Stuff Power Rankings Disagree https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2019/rugby-world-cup/power-rankings/)

[Old Man]

Looking forward to this match, Springboks have been low profile this tournament, quietly going about their business.

Not many are talking about them as a threat for the trophy.

It seems the team is quietly confident and focused.

Not sure thats true, lots of people have been calling them one of the favorites even before the tournament began. Not a bad route to the final now too.

It would seem to be the easier route yes, I am sure the would agree with that.

Still need to win those games though.

[SecretFly]

Yep, I'd have to join in with the others. SA might think it's slipping quietly in under the radar. But nope. Eyes are on them. But this is a very sly game, this WC stuff. Teams and fans pretend to be looking elsewhere all the time.

[sensisball]

Biggest problem for Japan is losing their starting tight head with what looked like a popped rib or two against Scotland. Their sub was great but what quality is their 3rd choice tight head? SA have arguably the best set of scrummaging front rowers in the tournament with the strongest bench options to boot. If Japan are pressured into handling errors I fear the Books scrum will punish them, then kick to the corner, catch, drive, score, repeat.

[Old Man]

Japan will have to avoid set piece, the current Bok team has a very good pack, and a very good set piece. Their rush defense can be found out, but so far they have scrambled well.

New Zealand caught them out in a five minute spell that scored 14 points, but the Boks adapted well and almost caught the AB’s.

On attack the Boks will be very physical, they just need to add that axtra offload to shift the point of contact and make those forward drives less predictable.

They have been better at exploiting opposition mistakes and counter attacks much better.

They have been averaging 2.9 tries per match vs tier one teams under Rassie, so they know how to score tries. with 45 tries scored by backs and only 13 by forwards. So for them it is all about utilising better options on attack.

[LondonTiger]

Faf is off form, and Pollard has pretty basic running and passing skills. That could cause problems even with your excellent pack.

Personally I would pick Cobus at 9 for this game. His reading of opposition attacks and ability to make an interception is the best in the game (yes Welsh fans even better than Davies imo). With Japan looking to throw the ball around that could create a number of scoring opportunities for SA

[Old Man]

Yes my biggest concerns are Faf and Willie le Roux, both nowhere near theirbest.

Faf has become pedantic at the rucks, hardly provides quick ball, his box kicks have been inaccurate this whole season and I can $h1t myself when he farts around before he box kicks.

Willie le Roux is error prone and have had little impact this season.

Pollard may be basic, but he can cut a line in half and makes few mistakes

[Collapse2005]

Pollard is the form OH in the world in my view.

[Guest]

Looking forward to this match, Springboks have been low profile this tournament, quietly going about their business.

Not many are talking about them as a threat for the trophy.

It seems the team is quietly confident and focused.

Part of the problem of losing to NZ, going under the radar somewhat. And playing Italywith 14 men. No one really knows where they stand but, at present, you have to say theyre a tiny bit behin NZ as favourites for the title. For the trophy? Hard to say.

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