Lions tour 2021

First topic message reminder :

So, the dates are announced for the Lions schedule in 18 months:

Sat July 3rd 2021: Stormers v Lions, Cape Town Stadium, Cape Town
Wed July 7th: South Africa Invitational v Lions, NMB Stadium, Port Elizabeth
Sat July 10th: Sharks v Lions, Jonsson Kings Park, Durban
Wed July 14th: South Africa 'A' v Lions, Mbombela Stadium, Nelspruit
Sat July 17th: Bulls v Lions, Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
Sat July 24th: T1 Springboks v Lions, FNB National Stadium, Johannesburg
Sat July 31st: T2 Springboks v Lions, Cape Town Stadium, Cape Town
Sat Aug 7th: T3: Springboks v Lions, Emirates Airline Park (Ellis Park), Johannesburg

So, eight matches, three tests - two of which are at altitude. Tough schedule.

funnyExiledScot wrote:Ted Hill is a fantastic prospect but I think there's just too much proven depth at international level for there to be a bolter on the flank. I do wonder whether there might be a bolter at 8 though, in the form of Doris, Dombrandt, Haining or Bradbury. Maybe not in the initial squad, but it's almost hard to imagine both Faletau and Vunipola making it through the tour. I certainly don't want to see Curry or Moriarty at 8 for the Lions.

Ironically id rather have Ted HIll switch across to 8, despite no experience, than Dombrandt...even for England. HIll is superior in every way..and especially his work rate. Be like having our own Duane Vermuelan.

But your right..the wildcard uncapped player probably wont come in the back row..it'll be somewhere else.

Imagine Watson, Curry, Undehrill, Tipuric, Faletau (if he gets back to prime), Stander, POM etc etc...all fighting for a few spots. Going to be some fantastic players left behind.

And willis is the better 6.

I'd accept if you're just looking at pure size and physicality hill is an obvious option.

funnyExiledScot wrote:I think this is a tour too far for Owens. Great competitor, but George is a shoe-in and I think McInally should definitely tour as well. Leaves Brown, Cowan-Dickie and one of the new Irish hookers battling for the 3rd slot, all young/in their prime. I strongly expect Gatland to pick Owens to tour, but I wouldn't.

Owens may not be Wales' starter, by the time the tour comes around (especially if it delays). It is possible that Dee, Elias or one of the Ospreys hookers may have taken his place by then.

To be honest, I am not sure why people think Gatland would do Welsh players a favour now (as has been mentioned a few times on the thread). He isn't their coach now, so that's not a factor. Gatland will want to win, so whoever he selects will be done with that in mind.

No 7&1/2 wrote:And willis is the better 6.

Debatable...as we have on the England threads...

RiscaGame wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:I think this is a tour too far for Owens. Great competitor, but George is a shoe-in and I think McInally should definitely tour as well. Leaves Brown, Cowan-Dickie and one of the new Irish hookers battling for the 3rd slot, all young/in their prime. I strongly expect Gatland to pick Owens to tour, but I wouldn't.

Owens may not be Wales' starter, by the time the tour comes around (especially if it delays). It is possible that Dee, Elias or one of the Ospreys hookers may have taken his place by then.

To be honest, I am not sure why people think Gatland would do Welsh players a favour now (as has been mentioned a few times on the thread). He isn't their coach now, so that's not a factor. Gatland will want to win, so whoever he selects will be done with that in mind.

Don't get me wrong, I rate Gatland as one of the great coaches. But he has shown a leaning towards players he knows in the past.

funnyExiledScot wrote:

RiscaGame wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:I think this is a tour too far for Owens. Great competitor, but George is a shoe-in and I think McInally should definitely tour as well. Leaves Brown, Cowan-Dickie and one of the new Irish hookers battling for the 3rd slot, all young/in their prime. I strongly expect Gatland to pick Owens to tour, but I wouldn't.

Owens may not be Wales' starter, by the time the tour comes around (especially if it delays). It is possible that Dee, Elias or one of the Ospreys hookers may have taken his place by then.

To be honest, I am not sure why people think Gatland would do Welsh players a favour now (as has been mentioned a few times on the thread). He isn't their coach now, so that's not a factor. Gatland will want to win, so whoever he selects will be done with that in mind.

Don't get me wrong, I rate Gatland as one of the great coaches. But he has shown a leaning towards players he knows in the past.

I think most coaches have the inclination to go with players they know well.

Of course, but a potential weakness in a Lions coach tasked with selecting the best players across 4 nations. Gatland is a great coach, and he'll pick a strong squad. He's no Woodward and has generally pretty solid judgement. But my concern is that his very strong Wales squad from the Grand Slam and World Cup has a few creaking parts, just like England circa 2005, and I'm hoping that Gatland is "alert" to that.

Yeah, I think that selection bias can definitely leave important players home. Tough job though.

That's the weakest position for the lions? Pretty well stocked everywhere. Inside centre? Farrell almost certainly first choice and then theres a bit of gap?

No 7&1/2 wrote:That's the weakest position for the lions? Pretty well stocked everywhere. Inside centre? Farrell almost certainly first choice and then theres a bit of gap?

Is Farrell really the best available 12 in the British Isles?

I really struggled with 12. Aki at a push?

I'm a big Henshaw fan - if he can get a good run of games he'll be in the reckoning.

Tuialgi is a 12 option too.

Matt Scott etc moving to Tigers..hes a top quality player. He could play himself in to the frame?

Scott is a fine player, but he'd never make it through a Lions tour. I don't think his body is up to it.

The only Scotland centre really worth mentioning in a Lions context is Duncan Taylor, who can play 12 or 13 to a high level. Still, he's another one made of glass.

I agree that centre is an issue. My combo would be Tuilagi/Slade, with Henshaw/Ringrose as backup. JD2 is getting on a bit, but I'd be surprised if Gatland didn't go with him as an option on the tour.

Aki and Parkes just a bit too one dimensional for me. You can say the same for Tuilagi, but he's more explosive.

Bit of a poor showing from the Lions nations that we're saying Farrell is the naile don 12 when he doenst even play there week in week out!!!

tigertattie wrote:Bit of a poor showing from the Lions nations that we're saying Farrell is the naile don 12 when he doenst even play there week in week out!!!

I think Gatland will start Farrell at 10.

If it's Biggar at 10 and Farrell at 12 I will weep.

tigertattie wrote:Bit of a poor showing from the Lions nations that we're saying Farrell is the naile don 12 when he doenst even play there week in week out!!!

Well noone does anymore

If Huw Jones can rediscover his form of 2017-2018 he'll be in with a shout. Likewise, there was a lot of noise about Hutchinson but we never really got a chance to see him at his best. I suspect Tuilagi and Farrell are nailed on in the midfield. Farrell is able to play 10 and 12, Tuilagi 12 and 13.

Huw Jones has the talent, but Toonie clearly has concerns over his workrate in defence, hence why we have been lumbered with Chris Harris. I dont see Jones having a chance to recapture form in time, and he only plays one position (13). Ringrose far more likely in my view.

Probably a moot point because of blockhead, but how would everyone view a Russell/Farrell partnership at 10 and 12? Be interesting to see if two players used to being the main man in their teams gel, they'd appear to compliment each other, Russell brings even more pure attacking threat than Ford does, while Farrell can take the goalkicking responsibilities

Main question would be if they can handle having to defer to the other for me, and both have shown suspect temperament in the past

I think Russell/Farrell is a very viable option, although my hunch is that if Russell does get a place, he'll be used as an impact sub off the bench with Farrell starting at 10.

I think Farrell-Russell would either be amazing or utterly dreadful. Farrell is controlled, consistent and accurate (in attack). Farrell is inconsistent but can produce moments of magic that Farrell simply can't. If Farrell can act as a stabilising ballast to Russell then it would be amazing. On the other hand it could be that they just don't click. I do think there's a very good chance it would work. Russell played a lot of rugby at 12 as he was coming through and does click with good players.

I think Gats would strangle his own granny before he took Russell on a Lions' tour. Russell's off the cuff high risk/high reward style of rugby is really the antithesis of Gatlandball.
I was listening to Jim Hamilton on some rugby pod or other recently and he was retelling how in the Six Nations prior to the upcoming Lions' tour he was in the form of his life. Graham Rowntree, who was forwards' coach for the Lions and a former teammate at Leicester, phoned him unofficially to say he was "in the frame" and asked if he would be happy to be midweek captain. Big Jim answers that he would be delighted and then tells his mates/family to book their plane tickets and holiday packages. Apparently, if I heard right, Hamilton even had the letter asking about his availability which he signed and returned. Then the squad is announced and he's not in! Rowntree's explanation was that Gatland decided at the last minute he was "a liability, a penalty machine". Instead they picked Ian Evans who seemingly "moaned the house down about only playing in the midweek matches."

Now, Big Jim was known as a penalty magnet among Scotland fans so we can't complain about that. However, this tale tells me two things; Gatland has his first XV picked before the squad is announced and he sticks to it, and when push comes to shove he will pick what he knows.

If I was a betting man, but thankfully having an IQ in double digits I am not, I would bet against Gatland picking Russell for any team anywhere, ever.

The thing which goes against russell at present is the view he acquired earlier this year that he doesnt want to tow the line.

So who do we think Gatland will take: Farrell, Biggar and Ford?

I really do think he'd be missing a tricky not taking Russell. It may be a gamble, and Russell certainly couldn't complain after his behaviour this year, but he can tear holes in defences like no other when he's on his game.

He's probably taking Farrell, Biggar and Anscombe. I reckon he thinks Anscombe has enough to be the attacking option, Farrell and Biggar the more steady

Whether he'd take a 4th 10 if Farrell is primarily a centre is up for debate

I'd forgotten about Anscombe. Hmm, pretty sure I'd rather have Ford or Russell.

funnyExiledScot wrote:

tigertattie wrote:Bit of a poor showing from the Lions nations that we're saying Farrell is the naile don 12 when he doenst even play there week in week out!!!

I think Gatland will start Farrell at 10.

If it's Biggar at 10 and Farrell at 12 I will weep.

Gatland started Farrell at 12 Vs NZ in the first test. There was a quick education and after that Farrell went back to playing 12. You need another playmaker alongside Farrell. Ford works really well because they are childhood friends and have played together through the international age groups. I'm not sure Russell and Farrell would work as Farrell isn't an off the cuff fan. I'd certainly like to see it tried before Biggar or Anscombe at 10 and Farrell at 12. 

I mean Anscombe at 10 would be pretty dire. Kick, kick and kick some more, Wales were painful to watch in the 2019 6N. Yes they won but they could have done so in so much more style. Even Biggar has shown he likes to attack when given the chance at Northampton.

I can’t see many Wales players going. Our frontline guys are either too old, or too injured and therefore haven’t played much lately. 

If I had to select a bunch of Welsh it would be most of the following; Carre, Owens, Ball, Tipuric, Navidi, Faletau, Shingler, Webb or Williams, Davies, Biggar, JD2, Adams, Williams. 

Now I think Webb is the most likely 9 to miss out. One of those back-row options will miss out too. Selecting any other Wales players is guesswork at this point.

I’m pretty sure the availability form is sent to the world and his wife in the run up to selection. There’s a story in Kenny Logan autobiography in which he alleges he was to be on the plane for the Lions in either ‘97 or ‘01 but because he is severely dyslexic he wasn’t able to return the form. In all honesty I think that if he was going to be picked someone would have picked up the phone. I do think he also wrote that the forms were handed en masse.

Yeah, the letters are done way in advance. It has been mentioned a few times in books etc, that I’ve seen.

I can't see that many England players going, think losing badly to SA and then taking a physical beating off France will count against them

If I had to select a bunch of English it would be most of the following; Mako, Marler, Genge, Obano, George, LCD, Dunn, Sinckler, Stuart, Itoje, Lawes, Launchbury, Kruis, Kpoku, Curry, Curry, Willis, Underhill, Hill, Wilson, Kvesic, Mercer, Billy, Dombrandt, Youngs or Care or Robson, Ford, Farrell, Smith, Simmons, Tuilagi, Slade, Joseph, Lawrence, Redpath, May, Watson, Nowell, Thorley, Daly, Furbank

I reckon Robson is the most likely 9 to miss out. One of the back row probably won't make it either. Any other English players would be just guesswork at this point

Childish BamBam at it again.

Do england fans still rate Launchbury this highly? Serious question. I thought the overhype had died down now that you’d found Curry.

mikey_dragon wrote:Do england fans still rate Launchbury this highly? Serious question. I thought the overhype had died down now that you’d found Curry.

Can't say I've been a fan for a number of years. One of the reasons he lost his place in the England side is because he is a poor lineout jumper. He's a bit like another backrower around the park due to his work rate but he's not mobile enough to drop to 6. Not enough physical edge to edge out Lawes or Itoje. His best years have gone it seems though he's still a very good club level player. Can't see him being close to the Lions squad even with the Welsh boys not offering much in terms of second row options. 

James Ryan and Mark Itoje are almost certainly the starting lock combination and then there's Johnny Gray and Ian Henderson who are great options. That's before we've even started considering Byrne, Lawes, Kruis (though his rumoured move to Japan might rule him out) and possibly a swansong for AWJ (can't see him making an impact on the starting team but as someone to have around the squad).

England have a few seriously good options at lock coming through, I’d be surprised if Launchbury was that rated. Definitely a good player as you say, but not as good as forum police man BamBam aka the Milky Bar Kid thinks.

I do like the idea of lawes being physical. For a lock he doesnt post his weight around quite enough. More an althetic lock than anything.

Well he was another one that made a career on being overhyped. I’d say he’s lived up to it to the hype the last few years though, very physical in defence and would be a good asset on your.

I think the lock selection is pretty straightforward. Itoje, Ryan and Henderson will certainly go, with AWJ and Lawes the others to tour. Kruis has basically ruled himself out.

Launchbury is unlucky his mum didn't once visit Wales on holiday. He'd have 100 odd caps by now, just too much competition in England

Lawes is good in defence, if you need somebody to do the showreel hits. Normally ones that are blindsiding tens who have just passed the ball.

I would agree he’s very athletic however.

BamBam wrote:Launchbury is unlucky his mum didn't once visit Wales on holiday. He'd have 100 odd caps by now, just too much competition in England

You play alongside the best (AWJ), you become the best.

Lolz all around.

If you have to clarify who (the best) is, they probably aren't (the best) except in (your own mind)

Tell that to yourself Milky, you were one of ones to vote Launchbury MOTM in that 2015 match  #awkward

BamBam wrote:If you have to clarify who (the best) is, they probably aren't (the best) except in (your own mind) 

Actually, is that you madge?

BamBam wrote:Launchbury is unlucky his mum didn't once visit Wales on holiday. He'd have 100 odd caps by now, just too much competition in England

Kruis is a tough one. He is probably the best set piece specialist lock available to the Lions. Great lineout leader and adds to the scrum surprisingly more than any other English lock. One of the major errors of the world cup final was leaving Kruis on the bench. Against the Boks Gatland may be tempted for a refreshed Kruis who would be match fit from the end of the Japan season and could go straight into the friendlies on tour. The set pieces will be a huge part of the battle for the Lions.

I think Kruis' selection depends on how next season turns out. If Donald Trump's Magical Mystery Cure arrives and next season goes through as planned then there's probably between an eighth to a quarter of probable tourists playing second tier rugby. George, the Vunipolas, Itoje, Farrell and Daly are nailed on to travel. Kruis in Japan would be another playing second rate domestic rugby. He would be without the caveat of having played for England too.
On Kruis in particular, it is a pretty tough environment. If he was still in England I think he'd be a certainty. As it is I imagine Lawes, Itoje and Ryan are nailed on tourists. Last time there were five locks initially, so assuming the same again you'd probably say Iain Henderson is next in line. AWJ is a special case, if he gets back to his 2019 form he tours and he captains, if he plays as he did in 2020 he goes into the pack behind Henderson. In that group you'd have (in no particular order) Jonny Gray, Sam Skinner, Launchbury, Ball, Beirne, Ewels etc. I'd add Richie Gray to that if he can rediscover his old form when he returns to Glasgow. There's always bolters tooIn many respects its a similar situation to Finn Russell. Kruis is a very good player. But now there's a big question mark there. With that in mind is Kruis that much better than the alternatives to warrant the risk?

Numbers... jeez didn’t you know? You can trigger a bunch of English by mentioning AWJ. I would refrain from that if I were you.