Political round up.............

by Duty281 Fri 20 Dec 2019, 10:33 am

First topic message reminder :

Pr4wn wrote:Why are 16 and 17 year olds old enough to pay tax but not old enough to vote?

Good point, take them out of having to pay tax.

by Duty281 Sun 13 Dec 2020, 7:13 pm

lostinwales wrote:
Samo wrote:Didnt he also vote against his own government more times than any other MP?

A record number of times. During the Labour governments he voted against the whip 428 times. Kind of makes it hard to keep discipline as leader when you have that kind of reputation.

Bit like Ryan Giggs managing Wales and trying to convince the players to turn up.

by **navyblueshorts** Mon 14 Dec 2020, 12:58 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Corbyn Labour 2017....

Accept referendum result.
Negotiate Custom's Union.
Push for Single Market access.

Now we are headed for No Deal.. Millions Unemployed...Businesses destroyed or fleeing abroad for less red tape.

Well done to ChangeUK..The Lib Dems and Blairites for trashing a Unity Govt to keep a Socialist out.

You think Covid is bad on the Economy wait for No deal Brexit..

Bleak decade coming up folks.

Yeah if only Corbyn had attacked the government when it was most vulnerable, when, for instance, the Cambridge Analytica scandal was breaking, things might have been different. But you know - 'buses'.

You are shouting at the people who had the balls to stand up and say Brexit is a very stupid idea, and one that was brought in through questionable actions and outlandish claims. Corbyn was bad news all the way through this. Divisive in his own party, and divisive on the doorstep. Never put the right pressure on the government at the right time and always backing that government when it really mattered.

You'll complain about the media coverage he got, with some reason, but the way that Corbyn dealt with that was to wallow in the 'poor me' aspects rather than try to change the narrative. That kind of thing appeals to the people who want a cause, a martyr to follow, and that brought a lot of people into the Labour party, but it did not bring over the wider population. If he had really, truly, stuck to calling out the government over issues with real meat on them then eventually the media, or at least some of it, would have picked those themes up and run with them. But no...

You also haven't responded to my comments on the Government of National Unity (A Gnu - a compromise between a horse and an antelope). That was a non starter again because of Corbyn. Because it would have depended on MP's who quit labour because of Corbyn. He was incapable of stepping back, at least for a short period, to let someone take leadership who those MP's could have trusted. As ever it is their fault for not buying into the Corbyn cult, just as it is our fault for not voting for him at the last election. Saintly JC is never at fault himself.

We have had a succession of terrible Conservative governments, each one worse than the last. One of the reasons they have got away with so much is purely because they have not had an effective opposition. Even when the opposition landed some solid blows, like over Grenfell, it was down to the likes of Lammy and Cooper, very talented people pushed to the back benches, not Corbyn.

Corbyn is not the main reason we are where we are right now, but he surely has played his part in this farce.

Corbyn defeated the Govt more than any Labour Leader in history...Look at the data...

Please feel free to research before you post guys.

41 times which is only surpassed by Thatcher 76-79..

Post is for lost in wales not you Navy.....Lost is generally more informed.

Just grow up, why don't you? I'll simply delete in future, rather than comment. Have a nice day.

by **Pr4wn** Mon 14 Dec 2020, 8:34 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Corbyn Labour 2017....

Accept referendum result.
Negotiate Custom's Union.
Push for Single Market access.

Now we are headed for No Deal.. Millions Unemployed...Businesses destroyed or fleeing abroad for less red tape.

Well done to ChangeUK..The Lib Dems and Blairites for trashing a Unity Govt to keep a Socialist out.

You think Covid is bad on the Economy wait for No deal Brexit..

Bleak decade coming up folks.

Yeah if only Corbyn had attacked the government when it was most vulnerable, when, for instance, the Cambridge Analytica scandal was breaking, things might have been different. But you know - 'buses'.

You are shouting at the people who had the balls to stand up and say Brexit is a very stupid idea, and one that was brought in through questionable actions and outlandish claims. Corbyn was bad news all the way through this. Divisive in his own party, and divisive on the doorstep. Never put the right pressure on the government at the right time and always backing that government when it really mattered.

You'll complain about the media coverage he got, with some reason, but the way that Corbyn dealt with that was to wallow in the 'poor me' aspects rather than try to change the narrative. That kind of thing appeals to the people who want a cause, a martyr to follow, and that brought a lot of people into the Labour party, but it did not bring over the wider population. If he had really, truly, stuck to calling out the government over issues with real meat on them then eventually the media, or at least some of it, would have picked those themes up and run with them. But no...

You also haven't responded to my comments on the Government of National Unity (A Gnu - a compromise between a horse and an antelope). That was a non starter again because of Corbyn. Because it would have depended on MP's who quit labour because of Corbyn. He was incapable of stepping back, at least for a short period, to let someone take leadership who those MP's could have trusted. As ever it is their fault for not buying into the Corbyn cult, just as it is our fault for not voting for him at the last election. Saintly JC is never at fault himself.

We have had a succession of terrible Conservative governments, each one worse than the last. One of the reasons they have got away with so much is purely because they have not had an effective opposition. Even when the opposition landed some solid blows, like over Grenfell, it was down to the likes of Lammy and Cooper, very talented people pushed to the back benches, not Corbyn.

Corbyn is not the main reason we are where we are right now, but he surely has played his part in this farce.

Corbyn defeated the Govt more than any Labour Leader in history...Look at the data...

Please feel free to research before you post guys.

41 times which is only surpassed by Thatcher 76-79..

Post is for lost in wales not you Navy.....Lost is generally more informed.

This is a last warning for any more deliberately wumming comments before bans start coming out. Strong opinions either way are fine, but going personally after fellow posters won't be tolerated.

by **Pr4wn** Mon 14 Dec 2020, 9:34 pm

That's that, then.

by Duty281 Fri 19 Feb 2021, 10:10 am

Back to normal (ish) politics soon, hopefully, with local elections, devolved elections and mayoral elections happening in May, as well as a budget in early March.

Work to do for Sir Kier with the Tories leading in 20 of the last 21 polls, but only by an average margin of around 4% (though this is on the increase). This is a much better position than Labour were in this time last year (when the Tory lead was around 15-20%), but a worse one than a few months ago in late October/early November when Labour were posting quite a few leads.

by Duty281 Sat 27 Feb 2021, 12:33 pm

Sounds like the SNP are falling apart with the current extraordinary scandal. Could be the end of Sturgeon.

by Samo Sat 27 Feb 2021, 3:21 pm

Unlikely. Unless Salmond can magic up some evidence out of somewhere nothing will happen and we'll have moved on from this song and dance in a week or two. Salmond has always had an ego and this is just the latest chapter in the Alex Salmond story.

Support amongst the SNP ranks have never been stronger. It would be a fools bet to bet against them in the upcoming elections.

by **navyblueshorts** Sat 27 Feb 2021, 4:30 pm

Samo wrote:Unlikely. Unless Salmond can magic up some evidence out of somewhere nothing will happen and we'll have moved on from this song and dance in a week or two. Salmond has always had an ego and this is just the latest chapter in the Alex Salmond story.

Support amongst the SNP ranks have never been stronger. It would be a fools bet to bet against them in the upcoming elections.

True, but that doesn't mean he's telling porkies here.

by Samo Sat 27 Feb 2021, 5:41 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
Samo wrote:Unlikely. Unless Salmond can magic up some evidence out of somewhere nothing will happen and we'll have moved on from this song and dance in a week or two. Salmond has always had an ego and this is just the latest chapter in the Alex Salmond story.

Support amongst the SNP ranks have never been stronger. It would be a fools bet to bet against them in the upcoming elections.
True, but that doesn't mean he's telling porkies here.

It doesnt. And if he isnt then Sturgeon will have not only brought the party into disrepute but also her position as FM would be untenable and should resign. Cant see him proving anything though.

by **navyblueshorts** Sun 28 Feb 2021, 1:04 pm

Samo wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
Samo wrote:Unlikely. Unless Salmond can magic up some evidence out of somewhere nothing will happen and we'll have moved on from this song and dance in a week or two. Salmond has always had an ego and this is just the latest chapter in the Alex Salmond story.

Support amongst the SNP ranks have never been stronger. It would be a fools bet to bet against them in the upcoming elections.
True, but that doesn't mean he's telling porkies here.

It doesnt. And if he isnt then Sturgeon will have not only brought the party into disrepute but also her position as FM would be untenable and should resign. Cant see him proving anything though.

Yep. Could be a 'he said, she said', but interesting that Information Commissioner's Office investigation into leak of claims to Daily Record said it had "some sympathy" with view that the leak was from the Scottish Government. On balance, I suspect she's guilty of much of what he claims, but I doubt it will be proven.
Good that her halo has slipped.

by Samo Sun 28 Feb 2021, 4:19 pm

Unless another serious pro-Indy party pops up then they'll continue to sweep elections, with or without Sturgeon.

by Duty281 Tue 02 Mar 2021, 7:01 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56259056

The sharks are circling for Sturgeon. Her appearance tomorrow at the inquiry, perhaps overshadowed by the Budget, could be make-or-break.

by **JuliusHMarx** Tue 02 Mar 2021, 7:07 pm

Duty281 wrote:The sharks are circling for Sturgeon.

Was that deliberate?

by Duty281 Tue 02 Mar 2021, 9:41 pm

Alas, it was accidental.

by Samo Tue 02 Mar 2021, 10:03 pm

Telling that the Tories are playing their hand before Sturgeon faces her inquiry. They're Poopie themselves about the upcoming elections. Cant beat her in the voting booth so take whatever route they can.

by **navyblueshorts** Wed 03 Mar 2021, 8:53 am

Samo wrote:Telling that the Tories are playing their hand before Sturgeon faces her inquiry. They're Poopie themselves about the upcoming elections. Cant beat her in the voting booth so take whatever route they can.

That's politics for you.

by lostinwales Wed 03 Mar 2021, 9:43 am

It is quite astonishing that the Tories can, with a straight face, demand Sturgeon's resignation.

by **navyblueshorts** Wed 03 Mar 2021, 5:10 pm

lostinwales wrote:It is quite astonishing that the Tories can, with a straight face, demand Sturgeon's resignation.

That's politics for you. You think the SNP, Labour et al would be any different if the boot were on the other foot? Of course not.

by MonkeyMan Wed 03 Mar 2021, 5:29 pm

My 77 year old father has been filling in his Census form. For the first time ever he is putting 'Welsh' as his nationality instead of 'British'. Yes he might not have that many voting years left. But when an old hardened unionist is swaying to the patriotic side...just think what the younger generations could do

The fire rises Wales

by **navyblueshorts** Thu 04 Mar 2021, 4:04 pm

MonkeyMan wrote:My 77 year old father has been filling in his Census form. For the first time ever he is putting 'Welsh' as his nationality instead of 'British'. Yes he might not have that many voting years left. But when an old hardened unionist is swaying to the patriotic side...just think what the younger generations could do

The fire rises

Nothing personal, but is there anything I can do to help stoke it?

by Luckless Pedestrian Thu 04 Mar 2021, 4:33 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
MonkeyMan wrote:My 77 year old father has been filling in his Census form. For the first time ever he is putting 'Welsh' as his nationality instead of 'British'. Yes he might not have that many voting years left. But when an old hardened unionist is swaying to the patriotic side...just think what the younger generations could do

The fire rises
Nothing personal, but is there anything I can do to help stoke it?

There might be some tips on this tonight:

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-03-04/is-the-united-kingdom-on-the-brink-of-a-break-up

by Duty281 Thu 04 Mar 2021, 6:51 pm

Tories up to a 13% lead with YouGov, undoubtedly helped by the Budget, vaccine roll-out, and I daresay increased national optimism. This is their biggest individual polling lead since last May. Sir Kier has it all to do when politics returns to normal.

And what might cheer Johnson up even more is that Scottish Independence polling has shown a recent decrease in support for the independence side, with one poll even putting the Union lot back in front.

by Jimmy Moz Thu 04 Mar 2021, 11:31 pm

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-03-04/is-the-united-kingdom-on-the-brink-of-a-break-up

"43% of people in Northern Ireland would vote to unify with the Republic of Ireland, with 72% reasoning that the country is historically Irish"

Quite frankly I find it impossible to foresee the six occupied counties of Ulster doing anything other than unifying with Ireland and rejoining the EU in the event of the UK disbanding. Anything else is a no win scenario.

by Duty281 Tue 16 Mar 2021, 1:07 pm

First by-election since August 2019 announced, with Hartlepool the constituency. Some Labour MP has resigned his seat after facing allegations of sexual harassment.

Ordinarily, the governing party get a sound pasting at by-elections, but with the Tories experiencing a current bounce in the national polls they may actually take the seat off Labour. The Tories have been targeting the seat in the last two GEs and came up narrowly short last time - Labour 37.7%, Tories 28.9%, Brexit Party 25.8%.

With the Brexit Party (now Reform) diminished almost entirely by Farage standing down as leader and the core purpose of Brexit being achieved, the key to the election will be where their 25.8% vote share goes.

It's a big election for both main party leaders, more so for Starmer, I think. If the Tories win in Hartlepool, it'll be a huge boost to Johnson ahead of 2024 and will silence the few critics he has in his own party. But if his party loses, it won't be a massive hit to his leadership. If Labour lose it will intensify the growing critics of Starmer in his party, who are currently unhappy with Labour's diminishing poll returns, and underline just how far Labour are from returning to office. It probably wouldn't end his leadership, but it would make things highly difficult for him going forward.

I'd say the Tories are probably narrow favourites. Labour have a lot of work to do to hold the seat.

by Samo Sat 20 Mar 2021, 1:36 pm

In a year of great candidates for “most Tory thing ever”, giving Nurses a 1% pay rise while increasing the cap on the amount of nuclear warheads we have has to be right up there.

by **Galted** Sat 20 Mar 2021, 3:38 pm

Samo wrote:In a year of great candidates for “most Tory thing ever”, giving Nurses a 1% pay rise while increasing the cap on the amount of nuclear warheads we have has to be right up there.

That's justified, you can't blow up a city the size of Paris with a nurse.

by MrInvisible Sat 20 Mar 2021, 6:49 pm

So we finally get some elections coming up this year with first electoral tests for government and for Starmer since he became Labour leader.

Agree that Hartlepool would be a bad result for Labour if they lose it, though I reckon Labour scraping over the line with a wafer thin majority less than 1500 on a low turnout is most likely outcome. Brexit 'has been done' so the Brexiteer vote which has been so motivated to come out in 2019 may not bother voting.

There's a few mayoral contests and Labour would be v happy to gain West Midlands and Tees Valley - if they can either up it'd give Starmer a much needed boost, though I'm not convinced they'll take it. There are some metropolitan councils which Labour have lost ground in before (e.g. Dudley, Bolton) which may be worth keeping an eye on.

I predict overall the elections will be bit underwhelming for Labour (but not disastrous), Tories will do OK for a governing party limiting net losses to under 100, keeping criticism of Johnson at bay for a while.

In Scotland I reckon the SNP will lose a bit of ground, Labour to pick up a bit, but SNP to still hang on to enough to carry on governing in coalition with Greens. I wonder if the recent goings on in SNP and how they have been covered in media may motivate a higher turnout than would otherwise be case (both in terms of pro and anti SNP voters) in current circumstances.

In Wales I reckon Labour may lose couple of seats to Plaid in the Valleys with Labour possibly picking up a couple from Tories elsewhere but not enough to make big difference on overall balance.

by Duty281 Sat 20 Mar 2021, 8:20 pm

The local elections are very tough to predict.

The 2017 local elections were hugely profitable for the Tories, so it'll be natural to see at least a slight swing back to Labour for the successor elections in those seats in 2021.

However we've also got the places last contested in 2016, which was a year where UKIP (now practically non-existent) and the Lib Dems (now diminished) did quite well, plus the Tories were only at 30% in 2016, so we may see a slight swing to the Tories in these places.

Nationally, the Tories are on an upswing and, provided it stays that way, these local elections are coming at a perfect time for Johnson.

The London Mayoral election is just a formality, as is the SNP's win in Scotland, though we should be in the last days of Sturgeon now, and it'll be interesting to see who takes the helm of the SNP going forwards.

Welsh elections for the Senedd will be interesting. The latest poll - putting Labour at 33%, Tories at 28%, Plaid at 22% - indicates a very close battle.

by JDizzle Sat 20 Mar 2021, 8:51 pm

Labour have a history of outperforming in by elections where they are expected to lose. BetFair had them at 7-1 to win Peterborough on the day of the election (thank you very much) and they pulled that out of the bag. Not sure how much Covid will effect their ground game, which is always exceptionally strong in by elections.

by Duty281 Sun 21 Mar 2021, 9:01 am

To be fair, I don't think Labour are expected to lose. Bet365 have them as narrow favourites - 4/5 Labour 10/11 Tories - and only once since EastEnders started broadcasting has a governing party actually gained a seat at a by-election (Copeland 2017). I think most pundits expect Labour to triumph. Which is what makes it such an awkward election for Starmer - a win will be met with an attitude of so-what, it was expected by most (unless it's a big win).

A loss would attract plenty of ire and anger, especially from some in Starmer's own party - mainly for the reason that some overestimate and misunderstand Starmer's role as leader up to 2024. Starmer's actual role is to restore respectability to the Labour Party's reputation after Corbyn tarnished it, make a few gains in the next GE, and then hand over the reins to someone with more firepower to make a real go of winning in 2029.

But some believe Starmer can make Labour the largest party after the next GE or, even more astonishingly, win a majority in 2024, which is just fantasy land on both counts. If Labour lose in Hartlepool the reality - that Labour aren't getting back to no. 10 anytime soon - will become clear to the majority who hold this belief. Which is why Starmer's job as leader may be in danger if Labour fall in Hartlepool.

As I said previously, Labour have a lot of work to do to retain the seat. They've already failed on one count by picking a rubbish candidate. They now need to try to keep the likes of the LDs and the Greens and the Women's Equality Party off the ballot - those parties will siphon a few hundred votes off Labour, which may make all the difference in the final count.

by Samo Mon 22 Mar 2021, 5:47 pm

Nicola Sturgeon did not mislead parliament and has not broken ministerial code according to an independent inquiry.

Scottish Tories couldnt put a dent in a block of butter. Their whole election campaign was built around this.

by **Pr4wn** Tue 23 Mar 2021, 2:01 pm

If only governemt politicians were scrutinised the way Nicola Sturgeon has been.

by lostinwales Tue 23 Mar 2021, 3:43 pm

What is it about a competent and popular female politician that the Tories not like?

by Duty281 Tue 23 Mar 2021, 3:58 pm

lostinwales wrote:What is it about a competent and popular female politician that the Tories not like?

Don't be silly, the Tories love Lady Thatcher.

by **Pr4wn** Tue 23 Mar 2021, 4:16 pm

lostinwales wrote:What is it about a competent and popular female politician that the Tories not like?

This is a bit silly. The Tories hated Salmond as well. It's the fact that they're competent separatists. Nothing to do with the fact that Sturgeon is a woman.

by lostinwales Tue 23 Mar 2021, 8:16 pm

lostinwales wrote:What is it about a competent ~~and popular female~~ politician that the Tories not like?

That better?

I'd add that the tories used to like competency. The current bunch not so much.

by Jimmy Moz Fri 26 Mar 2021, 6:13 pm

Alex Salmond launches a new political party then. I am not sure this is good timing. Scotland needs to pull together and fight for independence to finally get away from Westminster and the Tories for good. They already screwed it up once lol. I hope they do not make the same mistake twice. Plenty of time for new parties after independence has been achieved.

by Samo Fri 26 Mar 2021, 7:56 pm

Like I said earlier, its just Salmond keeping himself in the public eye. Cut from the same cloth as George Galloway - showed some moments of brilliance but are desperate to get back a bit of relevance.

by **Pr4wn** Fri 26 Mar 2021, 7:59 pm

Agreed. This party has nothing to do with independence. It's the Alex Salmond party.

by Duty281 Tue 06 Apr 2021, 4:56 pm

Duty281 wrote:To be fair, I don't think Labour are expected to lose. Bet365 have them as narrow favourites - 4/5 Labour 10/11 Tories

A constituency-specific poll in Hartlepool has put the Tories ahead by 49-42% against Labour. Johnson also scoring much higher than Starmer in the favourability stakes in the same poll. Accordingly, the market has shifted to make the Tories 4/7 favourites, which still seems rather generous.

There will also be a by-election in Airdrie, one the SNP should defend comfortably against a Labour challenge.

by Duty281 Thu 22 Apr 2021, 12:41 pm

A key test for Labour may be the prestigious position of Mayor of the West Midlands. Labour lost this to the Tories by a thin margin in 2017 - 41.9% for the Conservatives, 40.8% for Labour in the first round; 50.4% for the Conservatives, 49.6% for Labour in the final round.

Labour need to be winning elections like this, in places like this, if they're going to get back to a position of power.

But recent polling is indicating that they're getting even further away from winning the West Midlands Mayoral election, which is happening again this year. The latest poll shows the Tories winning 46-37 on the first round, and 54-46 in the final round.

Worrying times for Starmer. Especially with the Tories national lead continuing to expand back up towards a double digit % lead.

by **JuliusHMarx** Fri 23 Apr 2021, 9:00 pm

Dominic Cummings seems a tad upset.

by Samo Fri 23 Apr 2021, 9:57 pm

Another round of "he said she said" which exposes serious issues in the integrity and competence of this government, which will all be forgotten about in a few days when the next round starts.

The cosmic ballet goes on.

by CaledonianCraig Sat 24 Apr 2021, 9:55 am

Samo wrote:Another round of "he said she said" which exposes serious issues in the integrity and competence of this government, which will all be forgotten about in a few days when the next round starts.

The cosmic ballet goes on.

Integrity called into question about whether he broke the ministerial code. I lay you a bet he will not be grilled on national TV across the mainstream media a la Holyrood with Sturgeon. This will be brushed under No 10's carpet which has a hump under it the size of a camel's hump.

by Luckless Pedestrian Mon 26 Apr 2021, 10:14 am

I think Johnson's in trouble here. The Daily Mail's turned on him, a paper which just happens to employ Michael Gove's wife. This is the start of a concerted move to oust him now, IMHO. Let's also not forget that Cummings worked for Gove before he worked for Johnson.

by BamBam Mon 26 Apr 2021, 10:29 am

Definitely seems like he's stopped being the useful idiot, wonder what the tipping point was. Gove is the slimiest git of the lot imo, wouldn't put anything past him.

by Soul Requiem Mon 26 Apr 2021, 10:34 am

Gove will not be the next leader of the party. Reminds me somewhat of Heseltine's ousting of Thatcher, created a backlash from her backers in the party and resulted in John Major winning the leadership contest. Sunak's reputation is still sky high with the membership.

by Luckless Pedestrian Mon 26 Apr 2021, 10:41 am

Yes, I think it'll be something like that. Gove and his allies bring down Johnson, Sunak gets the job. Either way, it'll be a blow to the party. Thankfully I'm immune to Johnson's charisma, but he's very popular with millions of people, and none of his potential replacements can match it.

by lostinwales Mon 26 Apr 2021, 12:49 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Yes, I think it'll be something like that. Gove and his allies bring down Johnson, Sunak gets the job. Either way, it'll be a blow to the party. Thankfully I'm immune to Johnson's charisma, but he's very popular with millions of people, and none of his potential replacements can match it.

He is, and I just don't get it at all.

Jeremy Vine has a great story about him https://reaction.life/jeremy-vine-my-boris-story/

by Duty281 Mon 26 Apr 2021, 1:21 pm

Would be an odd time to get rid of Johnson. His popularity was low, as was the party he leads, during August-November last year. That would have been the time to make a move.

Now, though, the Tories (and Johnson) are on an uplift of popularity. Poll leads heading upward, local election results predicted to go well, predicted to take Hartlepool in an upcoming by-election. and currently coasting towards a fifth consecutive GE where they end up as the largest party (and most likely a majority). Will many Tory MPs, particularly the ones in former 'Red Wall' places, want to potentially jeopardise that by installing someone largely unproven, like Sunak?

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