Italy v Scotland Saturday 22nd February 2020

Italy v Scotland
Stadio Olympico
Rome

Saturday 22nd February
KO 15.15


Well a very important game for both sides bearing in mind they are both two from two the wrong way around. The traditional wooden spoon game looks like it might be living up to its billing again.

Both sides have proved they can play a bit, Italy against France and Scotland against Ireland, but both have shown their lack of killer instinct as well. Scotland in particular have given a masterclass in wasted possession in their first two games.

Both teams will feel this is a game that that can and should win and the winner may come from whoever deals with the pressure of that the better. Scotland have started both games so far pretty well, which is one big positive you can take from the new Toonie era. It used to be traditional for us to give everyone a head start and then play catch up. If we get our noises in front a bit in this game, then I feel we will probably win quite comfortably. If it is close though, then it becomes anyone's game. In truth Italy should have won the last time we played in Rome and they easily could do so again.

So what about selection for this game?

We have lost twice now and so, despite playing well, some changes are appropriate. We may get some hints when we get a squad update probably tomorrow.

A few players showed some pretty good form last night in Glasgow. In Llanelli this afternoon, the weather made it more of a lottery again and it was difficult to see any standouts.

Johnny Gray is the only known injury from the first two rounds and he will now sit out the rest of the championship. Some of our other walking wounded will be back though, Skinner came through a game for Exeter on Friday night and Matt Fagerson was in barn storming form for Glasgow as well. Darcy Graham has been spotted training with Scotland again and shown doing so in social media postings.

I am hoping we may see a side out something like this:

1. Sutherland - an impressive couple of games in his international recall
2. McInally - has probably edged the battle of the hookers, but also has had wobbly darts
3. Fagerson Z - I think it is his shirt now
4. Skinner - good enough to come straight back in I think and can also cover the back row
5. Cummings - he us a talent and needs persevering with
6. Ritchie - not quite on WC form but been steady enough
7. Watson - Not been on best form yet, but has a lot of credit in the bank
8. Fagerson M - Bradbury did not play well and has been out of from, he deserves his chance
9. Horne G - in scintillating form on Friday night, a close call but he deserves his chance
10. Hastings - easiest call of all
11. Graham - would have played all three games if fit
12. Johnson - Good case for matt scott, but SJ may have been our best back in first two games
13. Jones H - Another very tight call, but may be worthy of one more crack
14. Kinghorn - a greater attacking threat than Maitland these days
15. Hogg - looked back in good form on Friday night

Subs

Dell - still lacking in options at LH
Turner - deserves a chance, had a great game on Friday night
Nel - Berghan was poor against England, so the old boy is not done yet
Craig - this seems like the game to try him out, he looks a talent as well
Gordon - this is a tight call as Haining also played well today and the choice may come down to tactics, another dynamic player or a carrier? would be happy with either
Price - touch and go with Horne
Hutchinson - deserves a decent run out this time around and can over FH and both centres
Maitland - covers the back three

Big Gee
I admire your optimism that the tombola might pick two uncapped forwards for the most crucial game of this year's six Nations. Win it and his 400 K a year job is totally secure for another season. Lose, and great uncle Dodo may have to at least make some noises about a shoogly peg and a jacket.
I can see GG, not an ideal bench replacement, warming his arse and Bradbury , even after a poor display in the hurricane last week getting another chance, after having his performance micro dissected by Toonie and promising to do everything his dear leader had told him to do, including drinking a maximum of 1 lager shandy before we are obliterated by the blackness in the summer!

Not sure you would play Gilchrist off bench. If you going to play him then let him start, then bring Skinner off bench

I agree Gilchrist isn't ideal bench option, I would start him and have Skinner on the bench. Just saying what I think Toonie will do, sadly.

Skinner and Fagerson added to the squad. Craig released back to his club.

My worry is that backrow is just too lightweight biggee, which will always be the concern when you see Fagerson at 8.

It would be harsh to drop Haining completely as he's been one of our better players, but thems the breaks!

I really wish someone would light a rocket up Bradbury's arse.

Well so much for my Alex Craig theory. Still he has had some international squad experience and his time may still come along, one for the future not doubt.

RDW wrote:My worry is that backrow is just too lightweight biggee, which will always be the concern when you see Fagerson at 8.

It would be harsh to drop Haining completely as he's been one of our better players, but thems the breaks!

I really wish someone would light a rocket up Bradbury's arse.

I would definitely pick Haining over Bradbury at the moment, he did not really deserve his spot last time out, nor did much to justify it.

Fagerson may give away a few kilos to the two of them, but he makes good use of what he has got.

There's no doubt he does well with what he's got but this is top level -  these things make a difference. He's also not really proven himself at this level either, with injury and lack of opportunity hindering him.

Toonie clearly rates him though!

I expect we may see Skinner in the backrow at 8, given the Exeter experiment, and I think he's one of Toonie's favourites for sure. This being said I think it'd be a shame to waste his talents in the backrow, rather have the extra combative lock and another niggly backrower than three second rows. Fagerson may get bench at the expense of Haining, which would be incredibly harsh but Toonie seemed to deem it fit to drop him to the bench in place of Bradbury, and to add insult to injury subsequently keep Maggie on for most of the game until he absolutely gave no doubt that he was playing awfully. To me that rather unfairly shows very little confidence in Haining (I think Toonie might still have this experience vs form complex going on in his head).

I reckon given a couple more games Haining could be first choice but I don't see it panning out that way. Fagerson is an excellent club player but from the few appearances he's had in a Scotland jersey he's failed to stand out to me. He doesn't do much wrong but I think he has difficulty battering it up at this level. If we were capable of creating space and had a solid front 5 he would be my first choice as he runs great lines and is more mobile than most 8s, a bit like Richie V but bigger. As we don't have a massive front 5, and have great poachers but not exactly huge flankers we need a big lump with good basic skills at 8. Thats where I think Haining complements the BR.

Gee,
I agree on your front row.
GG and Cummings to start in the boiler room and Skinner to add oomph later in the game.
6. Middle Fagerson
8. Haining
7. Mbawza with Hamish from the Glen on the bench. Rockets applied to a few backsides there and it's a quintessential Tombola pick. I used "quintessential" just to make tigertattie choke on his shreddies.
Half backs...yes Though slightly surprised that he hasn't drafted in a back up 10.So, Hutchieson on the bench? Mind you, Furra Linee put in an excellent second 40 against Zebre; I was wondering whether he might get the call and we'd have "that old argument" raging again. Sadly, I think he's an extremely good club 12 who can do a good job at 10 but not really an international player.
Centres? Italy have shown some inventive and creative attacking play in the backs. Toonie may decide to start with a solid defensive pairing. Not A Pony may miss out here. Hutch and Harris with Smiling Sam on the bench?
Back three? Tagive to start with D'Arcy on the bench. Hogg and Blarehorn as usual.

Well a mixed bag from Hutchy playing for saints against Bristol this afternoon.

Was involved in making a nice try in the first half and then got yellowed for an awful high tackle in the second half, as Saints feel to bits and lost the game, when they were cruising in the first half.

I suspect he won't start next Saturday, largely because he has played today and he may even struggle to get up to Scotland tonight, public transport is all over the place due to the weather. Someone may have to drive him up.

I think he will be covering FH and centre again from the bench.

The 10 defenders beaten by Matt Fagerson against Zebre are the most by a Glasgow forward in any match between 2012 and 2020. Only 1 back has managed more DBs in a game during that time.

Curtesy of Disco, the king of Scottish rugby stats

Appreciated it was Zebre, but they were actually pretty game and it is still very impressive numbers.

We have not really seen what MF can do internationally yet, hard to judge him on his few cameos so far. Maybe we need to give him a crack!

Bradbury may be bigger, but does he give us more bang for the buck?

Russell has a nice game today in Racing’s win over Toulouse apparently. Setup a nice try dummying kolbe as he shot up in defence then flat pass wide.

Thats my point though, he's very much in the mould of Richie V. A good and fast player with skills of a back but less size to go with it, although fagerson is bigger than the 1-15 man. At club level its fine and dandy because youre up against more porous defences in general who are more susceptible to jinky forward play. At international level this becomes moot as defences spend most of the game offside and rather than 75% of the forwards being freaks of nature, 95% are with the 5% who arent getting knocked back noticeably. Fagerson is on that borderline between the 95 and 5%. By all means I think we have nothing to lose by giving him plenty of chance, especially as bradbury is playing like he's thinking about what bars he wants to go to after the game, but I think Haining should be the incumbent, not that toonie shares that view. He's given us a bit of extra belligerence and has shown up all over the park. He's the first scottish 8 I've actually noticed playing in a long time.

I'm still sticking with this team, couple of changes though.

Sutherland
McInally
Nel
Cummings
Gilchrist
Skinner
Ritchie
Haining
Horne
Hastings
Maitland
Johnson
Jones
Steyn
Hogg

Turner, Dell, Fagerson, Toolis, Watson, Price, Hutchinson, Graham

I was very impressed with Steyn off the bench for Glasgow on Friday night. I have a dream of seeing him and DVDM playing on either wing at some point this year, they're both incredibly destructive players.

Turner had a nice game and was good against Sale as well, so I think he should get a shot from the bench. Brown hasn't really set the heather alight during his first two matches but he hasn't done much wrong either apart from losing line out throws. All in all, not too fussed who starts, benches etc, no one is a clear standout at the moment. I think McInally edges it though with his strong break in the loose vs Ireland, he's looked marginally better.

I think Nel and Gilchrist should feature in this game, both did well in tough conditions on Saturday.

Skinner is back playing rugby and he is an integral part of Scotland's pack now. I would like to see him start at 6 for this one with the, so far, rather quiet Watson dropped to the bench. Ritchie swapped to 7 and Haining back at 8 ahead of Bradbury.

I know Darcy is back training, so would be happy to see him come into the match day squad ahead of kinghorn.

I'd like to see Toonie stick with Johnson and Jones at centre.

Horne surely has to start this one, he was electric on Friday night.

If Darcy is back and fit he'll go into the squad but not at the expense of Kinghorn who has been the better of our back three players so far this comp.

It's more likely that Kinghorn would go on to the bench with either Hutch or Harris dropping out. If Hutch is seen as 10 cover then this could save his bacon. If Finn ever does come back then Hutch would be surplus to requirements.

Horne Jnr needs to start. He's a better prospect than Price but he’s also playing better than Price right now by a country mile.

Haining needs his jersey back with Bradbury sent to the naughty step (right out the squad) but I feel his Mum wont allow that to happen.

CDP should get the back row replacement berth, he had another good game with Solly's Warriors but we all know Bradbury will start with Haining on the bench and unlikely to come on unless we're 15 points clear of the Azzurri

I think that to judge Bradbury solely by the scheizeshow that was the England game is pretty unfair.

Given that he's in his late 60s or something, the future of 8 at Scotland is not Haining. Bradbury stays for me - we need his size desperately. I really rate Skinner but he may suffer from his versatility by being a perennial supersub.

By all means look to the future but not at the expense of form. Bradbury is not fit or hes not back to form. Arguably the England game was a chance to showcase your wares as a forward. Sutherland did, ritchie did, when haining came on he looked far better. Bradbury had a good 60 odd minutes to do something, make a key turnover, smash someone back, make a few yards. He didnt. Haining may be older but Scotland have forever been living in the long term future or past and that just hasnt worked either way, think Toonie picking "experience" at the WC, or a young squad capitulating to USA. If Toonie wants his job he'll have to pick based on the present. Bradbury has to win his place back imo. Especially now Fagerson and Skinner are in the mix and if Haining is our form 8 until further notice, thats fine by me. Rather that than not have a form 8.

Tend to agree with Nelly here. Bradbury is not being judged on the England game but on being generally poor for Edinbugh all season. All the reasons why he did not get picked in the original WC squad are there to be seen sgain.

We have got the pick the best team available for every game this 6N. We've won bugger all in recent teams - absolutely no point in continually looking to the future if we still lose all the time.

If we need to exhume William Wallace and strap a pair of boots on him then so he it!

Haining has got a lot of catching up to do with Wallace FFS - he's only 29.

Dead certs
probables
Uncle Dougies
1. Sutherland
2. Rambo
3. Ragnar
4.Cummings
5. GG
6.Middle Fagerson
7. Mbawza
8. Yon Big Aussie
9. Little Big Horne
10.HaircutWho in the list of 8 Glasgow players who have beaten 9 or more defenders in a Pro14 match 2012-2020 appears 3 times
11.Blarehorn
12. Smiling Sam
13. Hardest Working Man
14.Is Seaman in the squad still?
15. Dropsy
Fecc that yellow didn't work. Still I'm leaving it just to make the rest of you feel how I feel at the prospect that we may lose to Italy. Seriously, it is a genuine possibility. So far this seasons Italy have been like Norwich City...lots of inventive attack but a very porous defence: you know if you defend competently you will get enough chances to score to win comfortably. Yet, I genuinely think they could beat us on Saturday.

Can't see why folk are dropping Watson, is he injured?

No, but he has been, by his own standards, quite ineffective. I would be tempted by Mbawza-MattF-Mullet but it might be too lightweight. Certainly it wouldn't lack aggression.

jimbopip wrote:No, but he has been, by his own standards, quite ineffective. I would be tempted by Mbawza-MattF-Mullet but it might be too lightweight. Certainly it wouldn't lack aggression.

Incredibly harsh!

I thought he was excellent against Ireland. Quieter against England but that was a freak game for everyone involved.

I agree on that backrow being worryingly lightweight, but IMO Watson is the first name on the teamsheet so if you need extra oomph he's not the one to sacrifice.

Yeah agree with RDW here, he was superb against Ireland and the I don't think anyone had a good game against England (or for England, was a terrible game).

Watson's shirt is nailed on for now, not a chance he's being dropped unless injured.

George Horne getting a bit of SRU led media this week, which suggests to me that he may well be starting.

Thistle Rugby podcast suggesting, from a source, that Harris will replace Jones and Hutch will bench!

Thistle's sources actually seem to be fairly reliable, so that could be quite likely then.

Harris looked sharp for Gloucester against Exeter, but it's still not exactly an inspiring selection choice.

He should have been picked for England though - that was not a game for Jones to shine in.

RDW wrote:Harris looked sharp for Gloucester against Exeter, but it's still not exactly an inspiring selection choice.

He should have been picked for England though - that was not a game for Jones to shine in.

Harris has been playing well for Gloucester all season to be fair, he has looked a much better player since moving away from Newcastle. He is the safe option I guess. I think Jimbo is right in that if we contain them defensively, we should win the match, they are dangerous when they have the ball and are willing to attack.

Chris Harris. The least exciting two words since 'quinoa salad'.

George Carlin wrote:Chris Harris. The least exciting two words since 'quinoa salad'.

A little bit harsh George.

He was one of the few of our players to come out of the WC with any credit in the bank and we should not forget that. There is a lot to be said for a hard steady player in the midfield. Huw Jones has won us a few games, but probably lost us a few as well and the same probably goes for a few of our other flair players. International rugby is rarely won by flair, but usually by good steady performance. I don't think he will let us down.

This might be the opportunity to play hard for 50-60 mins, then give Hutch (who is likely to bench) a decent run in the last 20-25 mins this time around. That may well be his route into proper international rugby.

We really have got to win this game, so you can see why Toonie wants to play the percentages.

https://www.theoffsideline.com/italy-scotland-blair-kinghorn/

Kinghorn up for media, usually a good indication that he will be starting!

He did score a hat trick against Italy last time out to be fair!

BigGee wrote:

George Carlin wrote:Chris Harris. The least exciting two words since 'quinoa salad'.

A little bit harsh George.

He was one of the few of our players to come out of the WC with any credit in the bank and we should not forget that. There is a lot to be said for a hard steady player in the midfield. Huw Jones has won us a few games, but probably lost us a few as well and the same probably goes for a few of our other flair players. International rugby is rarely won by flair, but usually by good steady performance. I don't think he will let us down.

This might be the opportunity to play hard for 50-60 mins, then give Hutch (who is likely to bench) a decent run in the last 20-25 mins this time around. That may well be his route into proper international rugby.

We really have got to win this game, so you can see why Toonie wants to play the percentages.

Oh, I know. I know.

It's just that when we use works like "good, steady" and "won't let us down", I simultaneously fall asleep and then am almost immediately woken up by a giant Graeme Morrison face with a clown mask reading from a book called 'Crash Ball Masterclass'.

All in all, not too fussed about who starts where this weekend, it would just be nice to see Scotland win a game! Beautiful or ugly, I really don't care. A Winning BP would be the icing on the cake and bump Scotland up to 7 points on the table. That could potentially put them in 3rd place if England and Wales lose to Ireland and France respectively. Then Scotland would have a huge opportunity going into the final stages of the tournament. i just hope the players show the same sort of energy as they have in the past two games and execute the trys this time.

Team is out at 13.00 apparently

Thistle podcast saying the changes will be:

Toolis for Gray
McInally for Brown
Harris for Jones

Maybe there will be a few tweeks on the bench as well?

I suppose we don't know if Graham is fully fit yet or not, you would imagine he will be involved at some point if he is, then we might see a bench of:

Dell
Brown/Turner
Nell
Skinner
Haining/Fagerson
Horne
Hutch
Graham

BigGee wrote:Team is out at 13.00 apparently

Thistle podcast saying the changes will be:

Toolis for Gray
McInally for Brown
Harris for Jones

Maybe there will be a few tweeks on the bench as well?

I suppose we don't know if Graham is fully fit yet or not, you would imagine he will be involved at some point if he is, then we might see a bench of:

Dell
Brown/Turner
Nell
Skinner
Haining/Fagerson
Horne
Hutch
Graham

I've been a fan and champion of Toolis throughout his career, but I'm genuinely surprised he's been seen as 3rd choice this 6N!

Flounder, I'm not too sure what you mean by,

I've been a fan and champion of Toolis throughout his career, but I'm genuinely surprised he's been seen as 3rd choice this 6N!

Like you, I'm a fan of Toolis but; I'd have Ickle Jonny in before him in terms of tackling, Cummings in terms of lines of running and go forward, Skinner in terms of all round abrasiveness and grunt. Mind, I'd have Toolis well before even considering Gilchrist. Pipettoe has just looked over my shoulder and said, "You haven't said anything nasty about Gilchrist. Why not? Are you feeling OK?"

I suppose it's all about the balance of the front five. Will Toolis -Cummings dominate the tight exchanges? Mind you, we're all still waiting for Jonny Gray to step out of his, "Lads, I made 45 tackles in 80 mimutes and haven't missed a tackle since 1973! " shell and actually start dominating games a la Alun Wynn Jones or even Al Kellock (at club level).

If Toolis stops our line out being as flimsy as GC's expenses claims then he deserves his place in the team.

If thats the only changes coming I think Toonie is very much writing his own fate. He only had to make a couple of positive changes but all I see is a bit meh. If Italy get ahead I think we'll be in trouble.

I will reserve judgement until the team comes out later.

jimbopip wrote:Flounder, I'm not too sure what you mean by,

I've been a fan and champion of Toolis throughout his career, but I'm genuinely surprised he's been seen as 3rd choice this 6N!

Like you, I'm a fan of Toolis but; I'd have Ickle Jonny in before him in terms of tackling, Cummings in terms of lines of running and go forward, Skinner in terms of all round abrasiveness and grunt. Mind, I'd have Toolis well before even considering Gilchrist. Pipettoe has just looked over my shoulder and said, "You haven't said anything nasty about Gilchrist. Why not? Are you feeling OK?"

I suppose it's all about the balance of the front five. Will Toolis -Cummings dominate the tight exchanges? Mind you, we're all still waiting for Jonny Gray to step out of his, "Lads, I made 45 tackles in 80 mimutes and haven't missed a tackle since 1973! " shell and actually start dominating games a la Alun Wynn Jones or even Al Kellock (at club level).

If Toolis stops our line out being as flimsy as GC's expenses claims then he deserves his place in the team.

Basically I don't think Toolis and Cummings are a good balance. I'd have GG or Skinner straight in for Gray.

Ah now, and here I'm venturing into unknown territory, Gray packs down at 5 and is usually tackling in the "one man out" position which is pretty much Toolis' job at Embra. So, if GG and principal are 4's then Toolis seems the next cab off the rank. However, like yourself I have concerns about the, apparent, lack of dog in that combination.

I don’t think this game is so much about the personnel as it is the personalities. When you consider our best players in relation to their equivalents in other countries it’s difficult to think of a difference of ability. I’d say Gray is capable of doing everything that AWJ can do. But AWJ would probably have grabbed the last two games by the scruff of the neck. I’m confident that we have better players than Italy. But if we’ve been dragged into a wrestling game and the games in the balance on 60 minutes it’s hard to put a finger on who will step up to the mark and drag us over. The games I can think when we dug in to close games and pulled through were in 2018 against France and Italy, or in 2017 against France. For all his many faults Laidlaw was that guy. It’s time for MacInally, Watson, Hogg etc to show they can do it too.

I'd like to see us play in a similar way as we did away to Georgia in the warmups and against Samoa and Russia in the WC. I know Italy are a step up from these teams but we played at a pace and intensity that they just couldn't live with.

If we try and play overly conservatively we'll be playing into their hands.

Well I am flying off to Rome tomorrow morning and so have been keeping a close eye on the weather.

It looks very much like it is going to be warm, sunny and dry, perfect conditions really, so no weather related excused this time around. You would hope that would suit us!

Team's up.

WTF is McGuigan doing on the bench??

Price still starting, and Haining dropped (harshly IMO).

No Darcy!

Teams out, changes to starting side as predicted, Toolis, Harris and McInally come in.

Bench not quite as predicted, no Graham nor Skinner or Haining. Gilchirst, Fagerson and Mcguigan get the nods.

There might be some fitness issues in that selection, have to wait for the press conference to find out I guess.

https://www.scottishrugby.org/news/three-changes-for-italian-job

Graham not fit yet, nothing about Skinner, maybe he feels he is not ready yet, he did have a long time out.

To be fair, McGuigan has been scoring tries for fun for Sale and is generally keeping Ashton and Solomona out of team.

Magnus Bradbury owes the team a big performance on Saturday, probably the luckiest out there to hold onto his shirt.

There are some good players on our bench this time, who may well make a difference in a fast open game. I hope Hutch, Fagerson and Horne all get a decent amount of time this time around.

I think this selection speaks volumes about Toonies confidence in certain players. What more does Horne have to do to start? Also Bradbury then completely dropping haining? Harris in the centres when shug hasnt put a foot wrong, is he injured or something? Hutchinson still on the bench.

These are all small changes, and we didnt need massive ones but the fact they are so horribly conservative will be our undoing. If we'd won one of the first two, I'd perhaps understand some of these swaps but none of these players have had an impact. Bradbury can consider himself very fortunate. Its our attack that isnt firing. Harris isnt the answer, at least start someone a bit more attack minded. Id rather see Steyn before harris at outside centre for Scotland and thats not considering all our other options. Matt Scott for instance if he wants experience rather than starting Hutch? I just think its mad we have so much talent in those positions and Toonie plumps for the mediocre attacker but hard grafter.

For me this will be a scraped win or an upset from a fired up italian side.

I'd say that Toonie has got most of the selection calls wrong here, apart from Rambo.

I hope I am wrong about Harris, but I just don't think he'll ever be good enough for this level.