The Covid-19 serious chat thread

[JuliusHMarx]

First topic message reminder :

Self-isolating, social distancing, locked down thread split.

[Soul Requiem]

How does it give credence to that whatsoever?

[WELL-PAST-IT]

Errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr..................r 30% to 80% in about 5 weeks when the London count is going through the roof with some boroughs having a 50+% rise in cases. Perhaps the Guardian got it wrong and it was more than 30%. If Ferguson says it is 80% of cases in mid December, then to me 30% or more at the end October sounds very reasonable to me.

If you are asking me to provide hard evidence I cannot as I do not have access, however SAGE do and one of their members is quoting the 80% figure in a scientific paper.

[Soul Requiem]

So no actual basis for that comment at all and using hindsight?

[navyblueshorts]

...Milton Keynes has been massively different from London and the suburbs all through the pandemic, until very recently it has been at the lower levels of infection even when Northampton 10 miles away was badly hit, MK stayed at relatively low levels...

Hmm. The MK LHL doesn't just process samples from MK. It's a massive lab and processes samples from all over. Just speculating, but maybe, amongst samples from elsewhere, it processes samples originating from London and the wider South East.

[navyblueshorts]

Errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr..................r  30% to 80% in about 5 weeks when the London count is going through the roof with some boroughs having a 50+% rise in cases. Perhaps the Guardian got it wrong and it was more than 30%. If Ferguson says it is 80% of cases in mid December, then to me 30% or more at the end October sounds very reasonable to me.

If you  are asking me to provide hard evidence I cannot as I do not have access, however SAGE do and one of their members is quoting the 80% figure in a scientific paper.

Sorry. You're adding 2 and 2, but making 5. There was a more stringent lockdown throughout Nov into early Dec, for one thing, where overall numbers demonstrably dropped.

30% sounds 'reasonable' to you, but you have no evidence that it's correct. It's just speculation on your part to fit your pre-formed 'UKG are conspiring to hide stuff from us and/or are incompetent in everything they do' narrative. To be clear, I'm not a great fan of UKG at the moment, but let's at least base what we're talking about on actual evidence.

[navyblueshorts]

On the subject of things too many are ignoring re. Covid, thought some might find this an interesting read:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/12/minks-pandemic/617476/

I know the Danish mink culls were in the press, very briefly, but this is potentially a pretty big issue.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

Funny, it is always the same two people on this board that try and defend the indefensible which is this government.

I do not carry out the statistics, but comment on a report. "It's the Guardian, must be wrong", no evidence to support this accusation, no comment when a SAGE member states that now the new Variant is 80% of the new cases in London.

I also heard on the radio that it is becoming the dominant virus across the country.

This was missed, by this shambles of an administration and allowed to grow to the problem it is. It took them 12 weeks to understand how it is more virulent than the original strain. Now it seems to have a completely different set of symptoms, much more like flu.

As I have a said and will not be quiet as some people will not see that their arguments are less supported as mine, at least |I have read publications on the subject, even if some were the Guardian.

[Duty281]

that 30% of all the cases in London were due to the new strain at the end of October,

According to the BBC it was 25% in November.

"It was first detected in September. In November around a quarter of cases in London were the new variant. This reached nearly two-thirds of cases in mid-December. "

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55388846

[Soul Requiem]

Funny, it is always the same two people on this board that try and defend the indefensible which is this government.

I do not carry out the statistics, but comment on a report. "It's the Guardian, must be wrong", no evidence to support this accusation, no comment when a SAGE member states that now the new Variant is 80% of the new cases in London.

I also heard on the radio that it is becoming the dominant virus across the country.

This was missed, by this shambles of an administration and allowed to grow to the problem it is. It took them 12 weeks to understand how it is more virulent than the original strain. Now it seems to have a completely different set of symptoms, much more like flu.

As I have a said and will not be quiet as some people will not see that their arguments are less supported as mine, at least |I have read publications on the subject, even if some were the Guardian.

Hypocrisy is strong in this post.

It must be so easy basing your opinions purely on hindsight and as Navy rightly corrected me yesterday it's more infectious not virulent.

[jimbopip]

Gentlemen, it's the season of goodwill.
Let's all agree on two things;
This pandemic is horrid,
having a PM who wouldn't recognise the truth if it smacked him in the face isn't helping any of us.

Be nice to each other.

[navyblueshorts]

Funny, it is always the same two people on this board that try and defend the indefensible which is this government.

I do not carry out the statistics, but comment on a report. "It's the Guardian, must be wrong", no evidence to support this accusation, no comment when a SAGE member states that now the new Variant is 80% of the new cases in London.

I also heard on the radio that it is becoming the dominant virus across the country.

This was missed, by this shambles of an administration and allowed to grow to the problem it is. It took them 12 weeks to understand how it is more virulent than the original strain. Now it seems to have a completely different set of symptoms, much more like flu.

As I have a said and will not be quiet as some people will not see that their arguments are less supported as mine, at least |I have read publications on the subject, even if some were the Guardian.

Funny how you're always assuming something is indefensible. Never mind.

You cite the Guardian. It's a left-leaning rag, with an obvious potential bias against a right wing UKG. Will leave you to put 2 and 2 together there.

Yes, it is becoming the dominant strain across the country, but that simple fact doesn't substantiate anything you've previously said.

Apologies, but you clearly aren't equipped to understand what you've read and your interpretations are coloured by your preconceptions. I'm afraid that's not how science works.

[Soul Requiem]

Also have to point out that a virus mutating isn't always a bad thing, it can mutate in such a way that it becomes less virulent thereby you would actually want it to become the dominant strain.

[navyblueshorts]

Gentlemen, it's the season of goodwill.
Let's all agree on two things;
This pandemic is horrid,
having a PM who wouldn't recognise the truth if it smacked him in the face isn't helping any of us.

Be nice to each other.

Agreed. Have a good one Mr. Pip.

[navyblueshorts]

...no comment when a SAGE member states that now the new Variant is 80% of the new cases in London...

Just to keep you happy, so what? Ferguson's comments re. the state of viral variants in London now have nothing, repeat nothing, to do w/ your assertions that the new strain was 30% prevalent by October. You made that up.

[navyblueshorts]

...I also heard on the radio that it is becoming the dominant virus across the country...

No, it's not. At least, not yet. I'm sure that's likely, but it isn't the case yet. What're you listening to? Fox Radio?

This was missed, by this shambles of an administration and allowed to grow to the problem it is. It took them 12 weeks to understand how it is more virulent than the original strain. Now it seems to have a completely different set of symptoms, much more like flu...

Nonsense. Oh, and get you're terminology correct - it's NOT more virulent as far as we're aware at the moment. If you can't get that correct, why would I put any credence in your ability to interpret anything else correctly?

[navyblueshorts]

Also have to point out that a virus mutating isn't always a bad thing, it can mutate in such a way that it becomes less virulent thereby you would actually want it to become the dominant strain.

In general, yes. What does a virus want from its host? To be able to reproduce optimally - killing a host too effectively would tend to put a damper on that.
That said though, a new xenobiotic pathogen might reach this point by going through a variant that's far more lethal than the original. Here's hoping this doesn't happen.

[king_carlos]

Also have to point out that a virus mutating isn't always a bad thing, it can mutate in such a way that it becomes less virulent thereby you would actually want it to become the dominant strain.

In general, yes. What does a virus want from its host? To be able to reproduce optimally - killing a host too effectively would tend to put a damper on that.
That said though, a new xenobiotic pathogen might reach this point by going through a variant that's far more lethal than the original. Here's hoping this doesn't happen.

Starting the countdown to Nigel Farage getting drunk, misreading xenobiotic as xenophobic and tweeting his endorsement of a pathogen.

[lostinwales]

Funny, it is always the same two people on this board that try and defend the indefensible which is this government.

I do not carry out the statistics, but comment on a report. "It's the Guardian, must be wrong", no evidence to support this accusation, no comment when a SAGE member states that now the new Variant is 80% of the new cases in London.

I also heard on the radio that it is becoming the dominant virus across the country.

This was missed, by this shambles of an administration and allowed to grow to the problem it is. It took them 12 weeks to understand how it is more virulent than the original strain. Now it seems to have a completely different set of symptoms, much more like flu.

As I have a said and will not be quiet as some people will not see that their arguments are less supported as mine, at least |I have read publications on the subject, even if some were the Guardian.

Funny how you're always assuming something is indefensible. Never mind.

You cite the Guardian. It's a left-leaning rag, with an obvious potential bias against a right wing UKG. Will leave you to put 2 and 2 together there.

Yes, it is becoming the dominant strain across the country, but that simple fact doesn't substantiate anything you've previously said.

Apologies, but you clearly aren't equipped to understand what you've read and your interpretations are coloured by your preconceptions. I'm afraid that's not how science works.

The Guardian is pretty much the only left leaning rag. I don't trust everything in it by any means, but I do trust it as much as any UK based news souce, and you can usually avoid the rubbish fairly easily. I would say that 30 years ago I couldn't read much of it before a science story would include the kinds of errors that would me really annoyed, but times have changed. Back in those days the Telegraph was good outside of politics but, again, times have changed.

I'd add that I do really rate Navy's comments on here because they are informed. Doesn't mean I always have to agree though.

[navyblueshorts]

...The Guardian is pretty much the only left leaning rag...

The Mirror?

[navyblueshorts]

Anyway, that's all from me for a bit. Have a good Christmas break and New Year.

Stay safe everyone.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

...I also heard on the radio that it is becoming the dominant virus across the country...

No, it's not. At least, not yet. I'm sure that's likely, but it isn't the case yet. What're you listening to? Fox Radio?

No, Chris Whitty, I'll leave Fox to you.

“What we do know is that this new variant not only moves fast, it is increased in its ability to transmit, but it’s becoming the dominant variant,” Professor Whitty said.

“It is beating all the others in terms of transmission.

I say it is BECOMING the dominant virus, you say no and then agree with my comment as you think it is likely to do so. Get a grip

.

This was missed, by this shambles of an administration and allowed to grow to the problem it is. It took them 12 weeks to understand how it is more virulent than the original strain. Now it seems to have a completely different set of symptoms, much more like flu...

Nonsense. Oh, and get you're terminology correct - it's NOT more virulent as far as we're aware at the moment. If you can't get that correct, why would I put any credence in your ability to interpret anything else correctly?

You believe it to be nonsense, but have not put one iota of evidence to show otherwise, therefore you are only talking about what you believe, not what you know. I, do not know if it is wrong or right and I would agree the Guardian is anti this government, but unlike the right wing rags like Sun, they do not generally go around misquoting or printing lies for the sake of their political ideals. That the numbers of new cases in and around London seem to be by even the UKGs figures showing that the new strain is now the dominant strain in these areas, 30% does not in my opinion seem  unreasonable. Your trashing of this is based solely on your dislike of the paper that reported it, not on any scientific evidence or none you are willing to share.

I would suggest that you refrain from borderline insults and remember that you are supposed to be an example on here.

[Soul Requiem]

The trashing is based on your lack of evidence and knowledge.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

I have no wish to get into a slanging match with you Soul, but please explain where teh lack of evidence is, most of what I said the Guarding reported has been reported by other sources in similar terms. Comments I have made about what I have heard have been attributed to their sources, people like the names WHO officials, the Whitty's and Fergusons of this world that know far more about these things than you or I. Do they have a lack of knowledge?

You are allowing your personal love of BJ and his sycophantic friends to cloud your judgement and look to attack people for holding views you do not agree with despite you not offering any counter evidence.

[Soul Requiem]

If you can provide your evidence for the new strain having 30% prevalence back in October go ahead.

Your final point sums you up to be honest, opinions based purely on politics, in your own words perhaps refrain from borderline insults.

[Pr4wn]

Let's not allow things to get personal please, chaps.

[lostinwales]

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/12/why-new-coronavirus-variants-suddenly-arose-in-uk-and-south-africa/

A bit more background (and yes it quotes figures about the prevalence of the new mutation.)

It also talks about retroactive tracing of the spread of the virus

A follow-up investigation by Public Health England showed that the variant, known as B.1.1.7 or 501Y.V1, began to thrive at a time when cases were spiking in Kent and other parts of southeastern England. Retroactive tracing through a database of samples tied B.1.1.7 to patients as early as September 20. But by mid-November, the variant made up between 20 and 30 percent of cases in London and a region east of the city. Three weeks later, it was roughly 60 percent. And on December 23, U.K. scientists announced a separate SARS-CoV-2 variant reported last week in South Africa had now been spotted in two people in England.

[LondonTiger]

Cardiff Critical Care Unit has put out an urgent call for volunteers to come in and help out, specifically targetting the retired and medical students. There are now more patients with Covid in Hospital than at the peak back in the Spring. With hospitalisations lagging behind cases, and cases still increasing, deaths will follow through January.

Things are getting bad all over the UK yet I look at the queues to get into the Trafford Centre today and wonder if people realise just how bad this will get. We already have emergency patients unable to be admitted to wards, we do not have the staff to man the Nightingale Hospitals and the next few moths could very easily make last spring look like a blip.

It is beholden on everyone to take the precautions that will protect themselves and the people they meet.

[navyblueshorts]

...I also heard on the radio that it is becoming the dominant virus across the country...

No, it's not. At least, not yet. I'm sure that's likely, but it isn't the case yet. What're you listening to? Fox Radio?

No, Chris Whitty, I'll leave Fox to you.

“What we do know is that this new variant not only moves fast, it is increased in its ability to transmit, but it’s becoming the dominant variant,” Professor Whitty said.

“It is beating all the others in terms of transmission.

I say it is BECOMING the dominant virus, you say no and then agree with my comment as you think it is likely to do so. Get a grip

.

This was missed, by this shambles of an administration and allowed to grow to the problem it is. It took them 12 weeks to understand how it is more virulent than the original strain. Now it seems to have a completely different set of symptoms, much more like flu...

Nonsense. Oh, and get you're terminology correct - it's NOT more virulent as far as we're aware at the moment. If you can't get that correct, why would I put any credence in your ability to interpret anything else correctly?

You believe it to be nonsense, but have not put one iota of evidence to show otherwise, therefore you are only talking about what you believe, not what you know. I, do not know if it is wrong or right and I would agree the Guardian is anti this government, but unlike the right wing rags like Sun, they do not generally go around misquoting or printing lies for the sake of their political ideals. That the numbers of new cases in and around London seem to be by even the UKGs figures showing that the new strain is now the dominant strain in these areas, 30% does not in my opinion seem  unreasonable. Your trashing of this is based solely on your dislike of the paper that reported it, not on any scientific evidence or none you are willing to share.

I would suggest that you refrain from borderline insults and remember that you are supposed to be an example on here.

I'll give you your first rebuttal, above. I realised after I posted that remark that you might come back that way. Fair enough.

The rest of your thesis is still based on your own misinterpretation of available data and/or viral biology. If you don't like robust rebuttals, stop posting fake news and/or made up conclusions. Not the first time, is it?

Also, stop trying to shame me into not calling you out on the basis that I'm supposed to 'be an example on here', while still allowing you to post fallacies. You aren't going to get away with that, I'm afraid.

[LondonTiger]

Major incident declared at a London teaching hospital, calling in all staff qualified to handle emergency care from annual leave. This is due to the volume of Covid hospitalizations. All non emergency operations and appointments cancelled for the next two weeks. Other hospitals to follow suit.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

Both BioSure and a Turkish university have announced a 10 minute result test for Covid, the BioSure one being around £10 a shot. Both are stating very high degrees of accuracy in the result.

https://www.biosure.co.uk/new-10-minute-10-covid-19-test-will-help-get-britain-back-to-work/

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/health/turkish-university-develops-8-minute-virus-test-kit/1967117

Having lived out in Turkey for a while, I would be a bit wary about their predictions on accuracy, very little is 100%. The Turkish one is a simple finger prick test like you get for diabetics to monitor their sugar count. The BioSure one is also a finger prick, but I am not sure about how it is dealt with, probably the same.

This should make mass testing much easier and quicker which with the Oxford jab coming on stream will hopefully speed up the vaccine roll out.

As one of the elderly ones due to get it in the near future, I am a bit concerned that they are now putting the second jab back to 12 weeks after the first. Three weeks was the period stated by the manufacturer, what has changed or are they playing off a bit of a higher risk to those that have had the first shot to give more people a jab and therefore reduce the numbers of susceptible people.

[Soul Requiem]

The first jab provides 91% efficacy with the second jab taking it up to 95% so it makes perfect sense to prioritize rolling out the first jab to as many people as possible.

[navyblueshorts]

Both BioSure and a Turkish university have announced a 10 minute result test for Covid, the BioSure one being around £10 a shot. Both are stating very high degrees of accuracy in the result.

https://www.biosure.co.uk/new-10-minute-10-covid-19-test-will-help-get-britain-back-to-work/

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/health/turkish-university-develops-8-minute-virus-test-kit/1967117

Having lived out in Turkey for a while, I would be a bit wary about their predictions on accuracy, very little is 100%. The Turkish one is a simple finger prick test like you get for diabetics to monitor their sugar count. The BioSure one is also a finger prick, but I am not sure about how it is dealt with, probably the same.

This should make mass testing much easier and quicker which with the Oxford jab coming on stream will hopefully speed up the vaccine roll out....

Good, if true. The more testing options, the better. Would be a little cautious of private company PR. Not aimed at you, PAST-IT, but as for the Turkish statement that:

"There are only antibody tests in the world. The accuracy rate varies at 63% in PCRs. In other words, there is a margin of error of around 40%, but with this test developed by our professor, a 100% result is obtained in a short time like five to 10 minutes," Murat said.

Yeah, right. PCR testing is only ~60% accurate if badly designed and/or run by numpties. Normally, PCR-based assays are both extremely sensitive and highly specific.

[JDizzle]

The first jab provides 91% efficacy with the second jab taking it up to 95% so it makes perfect sense to prioritize rolling out the first jab to as many people as possible.

I did see some suggestions that this way might make it more likely the virus mutates to be resistant to the vaccines? Not sure if anyone has read anything on why that may be, doesn’t make too much sense to me why that would happen.

Otherwise it makes total sense to do it this way. Hopefully can get a huge proportion of the vulnerable done by March.

[navyblueshorts]

The first jab provides 91% efficacy with the second jab taking it up to 95% so it makes perfect sense to prioritize rolling out the first jab to as many people as possible.

I did see some suggestions that this way might make it more likely the virus mutates to be resistant to the vaccines? Not sure if anyone has read anything on why that may be, doesn’t make too much sense to me why that would happen...

Arguably some selective pressure? Think difference between ~91% and 95% would make this scenario somewhat unlikely. TBH, think people's behaviour much more of a risk factor.

[navyblueshorts]

Interesting article from the Atlantic on why we should be concerned about this new SARS2 variant, even if it's not more lethal in its own right:

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/12/virus-mutation-catastrophe/617531/

Some interesting bits in there. Key paragraph:

Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time.

Food for thought...

[JDizzle]

The first jab provides 91% efficacy with the second jab taking it up to 95% so it makes perfect sense to prioritize rolling out the first jab to as many people as possible.

I did see some suggestions that this way might make it more likely the virus mutates to be resistant to the vaccines? Not sure if anyone has read anything on why that may be, doesn’t make too much sense to me why that would happen...

Arguably some selective pressure? Think difference between ~91% and 95% would make this scenario somewhat unlikely. TBH, think people's behaviour much more of a risk factor.

Yes - that was my general logic too. Not like we wouldn’t be vaccinating people because of that risk if the efficacy of the vaccines was only 60%...

[WELL-PAST-IT]

I wonder if we will get the choice, even if there is a longer time to wait for the preferred vaccine. I somehow doubt it but I can see all sorts of bust ups if people cannot get the 90%er.

There was a professor from UCL on the Beeb this morning, he said that "some tests" have shown that the 12 week wait between jabs actually boosts the immunity levels. I assume that these were lab test or trials as it has not been in circulation that long.

He also said that there should be no mixing of the vaccines; common sense I would have thought.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

I have just been listening to a doctor from one of the big London Hospitals saying they are having to treat people with Covid in ambulances as they have no beds available, this is not the first time I have hears such things in the last couple of weeks. Why are the Nightingale hospitals only now getting ready to receive patients? It is not as if we did not know this was coming before Christmas.

[navyblueshorts]

I have just been listening to a doctor from one of the big London Hospitals saying they are having to treat people with Covid in ambulances as they have no beds available, this is not the first time I have hears such things in the last couple of weeks. Why are the Nightingale hospitals only now getting ready to receive patients? It is not as if we did not know this was coming before Christmas.

Was this doctor talking about treating Covid patients in ambulances, or other patients? I know you state the former, but was that clearly what the doctor said? If hospitals full of Covid patients, that'll keep others out, which was one of the big fears back in March last year. Nightingales set up for Covid patients, only, I presume?
This (i.e. rapid case # increases) has happened quite quickly and Nightingales presumably have some warm up time to take into account. I wonder about the available staffing for the Nightingales as well.

Either way, not a good place for parts of the NHS to be in...

[BigGee]

I have just been listening to a doctor from one of the big London Hospitals saying they are having to treat people with Covid in ambulances as they have no beds available, this is not the first time I have hears such things in the last couple of weeks. Why are the Nightingale hospitals only now getting ready to receive patients? It is not as if we did not know this was coming before Christmas.

Having spent the whole holiday period working in a London hospital, I can assure you that the doctor speaking is completely correct. This second wave is proving far far worse than the first in terms of the sheer numbers of people who are requiring hospital treatment. I can pretty much guarantee that every hospital in east and central London as well as metropolitan Essex is in exactly the same situation, with bed occupancies of well over 100%, every spare area in these hospitals having been turned into emergency wards, without any increase in staffing to run them. It is not that there is no wish or desire to buy in more staff, they are just not there to be bought.

The reason the Nightingale Hospitals have not opened is very simple, there are no staff to open them with, there never were, it is just that bridge was never crossed in the first wave. The main issue in the first wave was lack of ITU capacity, the main issue this time around is sheer lack of bed capacity. That will also filter through into an ITU bed crisis given a bit more time as well. The only way to staff the Nightingale's will be to take more staff away from the other surrounding hospitals, which are already near breaking point.

It is very strange watching this from the inside and not seeing the media reflect in any shape or form, just how bad things are getting.

[BigGee]

I have just been listening to a doctor from one of the big London Hospitals saying they are having to treat people with Covid in ambulances as they have no beds available, this is not the first time I have hears such things in the last couple of weeks. Why are the Nightingale hospitals only now getting ready to receive patients? It is not as if we did not know this was coming before Christmas.

Was this doctor talking about treating Covid patients in ambulances, or other patients? I know you state the former, but was that clearly what the doctor said? If hospitals full of Covid patients, that'll keep others out, which was one of the big fears back in March last year. Nightingales set up for Covid patients, only, I presume?
This (i.e. rapid case # increases) has happened quite quickly and Nightingales presumably have some warm up time to take into account. I wonder about the available staffing for the Nightingales as well.

Either way, not a good place for parts of the NHS to be in...

I would say the ratio of Covid to non Covid patients in hospitals in my region of London is somewhere in the 80:20 range.

Again that is different from the first wave, as non-covid patients pretty much stopped coming to hospital for a good while, to the detriment of their own health in some cases. This time we are having to deal with an avalanche of Covid, as well as quite a bit of our normal workload, the drop off has not been anything like as pronounced this time, which is not a bad thing, but does not make things any easier to manage.

[BamBam]

Sobering reading BigGee, I hope you're doing ok

[navyblueshorts]

I have just been listening to a doctor from one of the big London Hospitals saying they are having to treat people with Covid in ambulances as they have no beds available, this is not the first time I have hears such things in the last couple of weeks. Why are the Nightingale hospitals only now getting ready to receive patients? It is not as if we did not know this was coming before Christmas.

Having spent the whole holiday period working in a London hospital, I can assure you that the doctor speaking is completely correct. This second wave is proving far far worse than the first in terms of the sheer numbers of people who are requiring hospital treatment. I can pretty much guarantee that every hospital in east and central London as well as metropolitan Essex is in exactly the same situation, with bed occupancies of well over 100%, every spare area in these hospitals having been turned into emergency wards, without any increase in staffing to run them. It is not that there is no wish or desire to buy in more staff, they are just not there to be bought.

The reason the Nightingale Hospitals have not opened is very simple, there are no staff to open them with, there never were, it is just that bridge was never crossed in the first wave. The main issue in the first wave was lack of ITU capacity, the main issue this time around is sheer lack of bed capacity. That will also filter through into an ITU bed crisis given a bit more time as well. The only way to staff the Nightingale's will be to take more staff away from the other surrounding hospitals, which are already near breaking point.

It is very strange watching this from the inside and not seeing the media reflect in any shape or form, just how bad things are getting.

I have just been listening to a doctor from one of the big London Hospitals saying they are having to treat people with Covid in ambulances as they have no beds available, this is not the first time I have hears such things in the last couple of weeks. Why are the Nightingale hospitals only now getting ready to receive patients? It is not as if we did not know this was coming before Christmas.

Was this doctor talking about treating Covid patients in ambulances, or other patients? I know you state the former, but was that clearly what the doctor said? If hospitals full of Covid patients, that'll keep others out, which was one of the big fears back in March last year. Nightingales set up for Covid patients, only, I presume?
This (i.e. rapid case # increases) has happened quite quickly and Nightingales presumably have some warm up time to take into account. I wonder about the available staffing for the Nightingales as well.

Either way, not a good place for parts of the NHS to be in...

I would say the ratio of Covid to non Covid patients in hospitals in my region of London is somewhere in the 80:20 range.

Again that is different from the first wave, as non-covid patients pretty much stopped coming to hospital for a good while, to the detriment of their own health in some cases. This time we are having to deal with an avalanche of Covid, as well as quite a bit of our normal workload, the drop off has not been anything like as pronounced this time, which is not a bad thing, but does not make things any easier to manage.

Hi BigGee. It's great to get some insight on current conditions from someone with firsthand experience. It doesn't sound great, to put it mildly; hope you and everyone else are coping as well as can be expected. Thoughts are with you and all the others who're neck deep in this, especially over the next few weeks.

Sad to hear confirmation re. staffing and Nightingales - sounds like the bullet dodged first time around might hit home this time. What a mess.

Strange re. media - you'd think they'd be all over it. A bit behind the curve, perhaps?

[lostinwales]

I don't know where the media thing fits in. It does seem that for very good reasons there is a reluctance to let cameras on to the wards but I am also not sure how much pushing there is from journos to get on the wards in the first place.

We are left with a whole heap of first hand accounts but no evidence for our eyes, unless you count the pictures of the lines of ambulances. I guess the end result is an idea that there is something truly terrible going on but it is happening a long way away and to someone else.

What is also frustrating is the covidiots, especially the higher profile ones active on social media.

Looking on worldometers at infection rates is very sobering (or should be if they were given more attention). I know that our testing regime has probably got a lot better and the virus is probably running riot in some places which just are not picking up those infections, but our current daily numbers are twice as high as anywhere else outside of the USA.

[Samo]

Scotland going back into full lockdown as of midnight tonight until atleast the end of the month, with schools remaining closed until atleast February. Johnson has scheduled a presser for 8pm tonight so its likely he'll follow suit.

[navyblueshorts]

...What is also frustrating is the covidiots, especially the higher profile ones active on social media...

I'd like to see a good lawyer investigate whether such demonstrably irresponsible social media posting falls foul of any law somewhere. Prosecute, fine and jail the SOBs. At the least, ruin their careers.

[WELL-PAST-IT]

Scotland going back into full lockdown as of midnight tonight until atleast the end of the month, with schools remaining closed until atleast February.  Johnson has scheduled a presser for 8pm tonight so its likely he'll follow suit.

Not until he has waited for Parliament to approve it. Parliament has been recalled on Wednesday to discuss it. It will therefore be at the earliest Wednesday night or more likely Thursday / Friday night to have time to prepare.

The world and it's dog saw this coming before Christmas and they are acting slowly, again.

[BigGee]

The media seems to have finally woken up to this and are giving it the coverage it deserves today.

Better late than never I guess!

[lostinwales]

Scotland going back into full lockdown as of midnight tonight until atleast the end of the month, with schools remaining closed until atleast February.  Johnson has scheduled a presser for 8pm tonight so its likely he'll follow suit.

Not until he has waited for Parliament to approve it. Parliament has been recalled on Wednesday to discuss it. It will therefore be at the earliest Wednesday night or more likely Thursday / Friday night to have time to prepare.

The world and it's dog saw this coming before Christmas and they are acting slowly, again.

Who needs time to prepare?

[Samo]

Atleast we’ve got the £22bn Serco test and trace system to help.

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