Heineken Cup QF - Leinster v Saracens 19 Sep

Last weekend, Leinster were playing in a PRO14 Championship final with a full First team 23 squad out playing. Meanwhile Saracens fielded their 2nds and 3rds in a meaningless game against Exeter and rested all their stars.

Both teams operate good academies and make use of their players during the season. Saracens will be without their inside centre/10 Owen Farrell and Leinster may be without TH Tadgh Furlong and opensider Dan Leavy who was a real thorn in the side for the Londoners the last time he played them in 2018.

Neither side underestimates the other in their ability to match stout defence with relentless attack. The differences between the two teams may come from the bench at the hour mark.

With a French referee officiating, both teams will have to learn to adapt quickly to his interpretation of the new breakdown laws.

Odds for this match have Leinster at 1/4 and Saracens at 3/1. But between these two teams, nothing is certain. In Head to Head it’s currently 3-1 in favour of the newly installed PRO14 Champions.

Should be a cracker with Saracens season the line before they head for the other Championship.

Chip away.

I think Leinster have to be favourites. Sarries have lost a fair few big name players they'd have liked to have available for this game. This would have been a game built for Ben Earl for instance and the loss of Ben Spencer is a big blow. Sarries should still be able to put out a great 15 but the bench won't be showing the same level of quality.

this is Saracens cup final.

they may well lose, but they will throw the kitchen sink at Leinster.

quinsforever wrote:this is Saracens cup final.

they may well lose, but they will throw the kitchen sink at Leinster.

Agreed. Leinster have had four tough games up to this point including the final. They’re on a long game winning streak which brings added pressure.

Pascal Gaüzère has been appointed to referee the game with George Clancy and Joy Neville running the line. Getting used to the Frenchman’s rulings on the pitch may create the opening for one side or the other.

Leinster to win, and pull away in last 20 due to squad depth and size. Would prefer Saracens to win though.

If Dan Leavy is going to be brought up, then there has to be the list of all the Saracens players who are no longer there from the last time they played. Saracens probably missing 7 or 8 players from the final last year when they dominated Leinster.

Would probably give Leinster a 5 point advantage entering the contest. Sarries have the horses to give Leinster problems and probably have a 1 in 4 chance of winning. If Sarries can keep it close and defend hard, a piece of magic may be enough for them to sneak it.

The shame for Sarries is this game not being played in April

Don't think defending champions with nothing else left to play for targeting this specific match can be 25% chance of winning. Saracens have a lot of positives to easily take this game by 12-15 points (if they get ahead they'll slowly pull out a two score lead).

Just hope it's an entertaining game.

Pot Hale wrote:

quinsforever wrote:this is Saracens cup final.

they may well lose, but they will throw the kitchen sink at Leinster.

Agreed.   Leinster have had four tough games up to this point including the final.  They’re on a long game winning streak which brings added pressure.

Pascal Gaüzère has been appointed to referee the game with George Clancy and Joy Neville running the line.     Getting used to the Frenchman’s rulings on the pitch may create the opening for one side or the other.  

Gauzere has a 63% home win record

https://www.cardiffrfcfans.com/analysis/referee_profile.php?countryID=5&refereeID=62

He's refereed Saracens to 11 victories but only 1 loss (in Munster, in December 2012):

https://www.cardiffrfcfans.com/analysis/ref_by_nationality_of_teams.php?refereeID=62&countryID=2

He's refereed Leinster to 8 victories and no losses:

https://www.cardiffrfcfans.com/analysis/ref_by_nationality_of_teams.php?refereeID=62&countryID=3

I suspect that Leinster will win by two clear scores.

If Saracens had the squad they started with I'd favour them but even with a back to the walls mentality too many weaknesses now for them to beat Leinster surely? Weirder things have happened but can't see it this weekend.

Leinster's (aka Ireland ) game to lose. European history shows that in the tight knockout phases it is test experience at FH that makes the difference in game management and Farrell missing is a body blow, no matter how much Saracens might deny it.
Looks like Goode will play ten, so not sure who plays fullback which will probably be a target for Sexton (the debate on the Leinster FH for the league final was amusing).

The player Saracens will probably miss most is Will Skelton for his sheer intimidating size and power, but their bench will not be stacked with internationals like their opposition.

It would almost be worth watching to see the supposed moral superiority of the IRFU team if they win, but I don't have Murdoch's Sky, so will miss it.

thebandwagonsociety wrote:Don't think defending champions with nothing else left to play for targeting this specific match can be 25% chance of winning. Saracens have a lot of positives to easily take this game by 12-15 points (if they get ahead they'll slowly pull out a two score lead).

Just hope it's an entertaining game.

Sarries are down the following players from this years group stages and last years final. I have bolded the 12 losses from that final team

Carre - Singleton/Gray - Figallo/Lamositele
Skelton - Kruis
Isiekwe - Earl -  Burger

Spencer - Farrell
Lozowski - Tompkins
L Williams - Malins - Gallagher/Strettle

Saracens still have an excellent 23 if everyone is healthy/not suspended and it is a credit to them that they have a good shot when going against Leinster away. Leinster went undefeated in its league and in European group stages and the last loss they had was in the final against Sarries in 2019. The 25 - 30% is about fair when looking at the losses to a side that beat Leinster by 10

Recwatcher16 wrote:I don't have Murdoch's Sky, so will miss it.

BT Sport for UK.

And Murdoch no longer owns Sky in any case.

I reckon Saracens are only narrow outsiders for this. Seems quite a few Leinster fans are cautious about their prospects, and are wary of Saracens still powerful back line.

Either way, it should be the tie of the round. Just wish Gauzere wasn't officiating!

Bookies have Clermont as marginal favourites at home to Racing. Other than that they have the three away teams as massive underdogs.

Oddschecker shows Saracens 7/2, Ulster 4/1 & Northampton 14/1.

For margins they have Leinster by 9.

Saracens worth a little nibble at that price. Toulouse should beat Ulster comfortably, and the Exeter/Northampton game might be a farce with the latter's prop issues. Clermont/Racing is pretty 50/50.

Hazel Sapling wrote:Sarries are down the following players from this years group stages and last years final. I have bolded the 12 losses from that final team

Skelton - Kruis

Kruis is an odd one. He is still in the UK, as Japan essentially banned foreigners from the country for months, and has only just started relaxing restrictions. McCall suggested he's theoretically available to play for Saracens at the weekend but it won't happen. Chris Ashton painted a picture of Kruis going to seed at home, saying he isn't match fit. It may well be an insurance matter, or simply that Kruis doesn't want to play after a long break, and risk injury. Danny Care thinks Kruis is the biggest loss, especially as Skelton and Isiekwe have also moved on.

Recwatcher16 wrote:Leinster's (aka Ireland ) game to lose. European history shows that in the tight knockout phases it is test experience at FH that makes the difference in game management and Farrell missing is a body blow, no matter how much Saracens might deny it.
Looks like Goode will play ten, so not sure who plays fullback which will probably be a target for Sexton (the debate on the Leinster FH for the league final was amusing).

The player Saracens will probably miss most is Will Skelton for his sheer intimidating size and power, but their bench will not be stacked with internationals like their opposition.

It would almost be worth watching to see the supposed moral superiority of the IRFU team if they win, but I don't have Murdoch's Sky, so will miss it.

Someone is salty. All bar 6 in the Leinster squad were developped via their academy, but it's the IRFU stacking the deck...

Clueless

If you were to not pick Leinster or Saracens players for Ireland or England respectively (and also limit to 3 other English clubs to be fair) what teams could you pick? I admit I got stuck on an Ireland 7, and have realised how little I know of Connacht and Ulster outside of the Irish team players.

kilcoyne genge
herring cowan dickie
ryan        williams
henderson hill
roux         ewels
omahoney mercer
        underhill
stander simmonds
cooney youngs
carberry ford
conway nowell
aki         slade
farrell devoto
earls         mcconnochie
stockdale watson

Not as easy as I thought for England, but it obviously shows the strength in depth available when first choice players are missing. Think both sets of second rows arent great, and Irelands backline isn't too far off normal anyway. Not picking Lawes, Launchbury, Curry or Tuilagi for England either due to limiting from 3 teams.

MichaelT wrote:Not picking Lawes, Launchbury, Curry or Tuilagi for England either due to limiting from 3 teams.

if you dropped Leicester, you could cover loosehead and scrum half from Exeter and Bath, with Moon and Spencer. You could even play Simmons from Exeter at fly half, which would leave you a free extra team. Wasps would give you access to Umaga, Launchbury, Willis, Shields etc

For the Ireland 7 Jordi Murphy of Ulster?

For England if you utilise Bath/Wasps/Exeter

1. Obano
2. Cowan Dickie
3. Stuart
4. Launchbury
5. Hill
6. Willis
7. Underhill
8. Simmons
9. Spencer
10. Simmons
11. Nowell
12. Slade
13. Joseph
14. Cockansiga
15. Watson

A little light at 10 but otherwise a good side.

Forgot about Obano and Joseph, but I wanted Genge and Ford in the side.

Think Eddie Jones might have to do something similar to this but without Exeter and Bath/ Wasps players for the Italy game due to the final the week before. Ireland will as well if Leinster get to the champions cup final with their Italy game a week later.

MichaelT wrote:Forgot about Obano and Joseph, but I wanted Genge and Ford in the side.

Yeah obviously I'd prefer having Genge, Cole, Youngs and Ford in there but Bath have several really good EQ backs whereas Tigers have some coming through but none in the first team since Manu and May left. Freddie Steward at 15 is one hell of an athlete though (try saving tackle on a 20 stone winger and a 50m penalty Vs Saints) looks like he's been playing years as opposed to a 19 year old rookie.

Leinster have been clinical but the recent scorelines have flattered them. I think Mark McCall will be confident of stopping Leinster playing and winning an arm wrestle.

I'd love to see Saracens snatch it, by I'll go leinster by two scores

Despite their winning ways Leinster are no where near hitting top gear and Sarries are a side that no Irish side like playing huge and belligerent. I think this could go either way at the moment

Leinster Rugby (caps in brackets)

15. Jordan Larmour (49)
14. Hugo Keenan (17)
13. Garry Ringrose (75)
12. Robbie Henshaw (47)
11. James Lowe (46)
10. Johnny Sexton (166) CAPTAIN
9. Luke McGrath (126)
1. Cian Healy (219)
2. Seán Cronin (184)
3. Andrew Porter (65)
4. Devin Toner (248)
5. James Ryan (38)
6. Caelan Doris (32)
7. Will Connors (19)
8. Jack Conan (92)

16. Rónan Kelleher (14)
17. Ed Byrne (56)
18. Michael Bent (139)
19. Ryan Baird (9)
20. Josh van der Flier (83)
21. Jamison Gibson-Park (92)
22. Ross Byrne (88)
23. Rory O’Loughlin (70)

Fardy loses out on selection (is the 2 antipodean limit still around?)
Cronin back and starts, tough call on Kelleher.
VDF goes from MOTM in the pro14 final to the bench.

Are Henshaw, Bent, Lowe and GP only ones not Leinster Accademy, with only GP not IQ.

Leinster's squad also seems to get younger each year. Also not sure if Leinster have a starting 15 any more as only a handful of players are assured of their place.

Interesting to see what happens with Dan Levy when he comes back. Will he start 7 or will he and the other backrowers start playing two positions. Connors with his chop tackles could easily play 6.

Brendan wrote:Are Henshaw, Bent, Lowe and GP only ones not Leinster Accademy, with only GP not IQ.

Leinster's squad also seems to get younger each year. Also not sure if Leinster have a starting 15 any more as only a handful of players are assured of their place.

Interesting to see what happens with Dan Levy when he comes back. Will he start 7 or will he and the other backrowers start playing two positions. Connors with his chop tackles could easily play 6.

JGP is IQ since Summer 2019.
Fardy out of the squad for Baird is a huge vote of confidence in the young lock.Baird and VdF will bring serious energy off
the bench.
Kelleher dropping to the bench is disappointing, hopefully he isn't getting all the blame for the lineout wobbles last time out. I want to see him get a good run off the bench with a point to prove.

the 15 for sarries is very strong, but the bench looks very light. Are there any players on there that could change a game? Davies maybe, I just don't really know the names.

Clark's been known to make a break or 2.

thebandwagonsociety wrote:Fardy loses out on selection (is the 2 antipodean limit still around?)
Cronin back and starts, tough call on Kelleher.
VDF goes from MOTM in the pro14 final to the bench.

That's a pure selection call. Park is IQ now, as is Lowe as well I think. What a call that is as well. I'm sure the Welsh boys are livid that Leinster rested the 21 year old Ryan Baird for the QF. Why wasn't he picked for the pro 14 final??? Leinster taking the urine out of the pro 14!!

the-goon2 wrote:

thebandwagonsociety wrote:Fardy loses out on selection (is the 2 antipodean limit still around?)
Cronin back and starts, tough call on Kelleher.
VDF goes from MOTM in the pro14 final to the bench.

That's a pure selection call. Park is IQ now, as is Lowe as well I think. What a call that is as well. I'm sure the Welsh boys are livid that Leinster rested the 21 year old Ryan Baird for the QF. Why wasn't he picked for the pro 14 final??? Leinster taking the urine out of the pro 14!!

The rested Cronin too.

No 7&1/2 wrote:Clark's been known to make a break or 2.

the-goon2 wrote:the 15 for sarries is very strong, but the bench looks very light. Are there any players on there that could change a game? Davies maybe, I just don't really know the names.

It is a light bench. Woolstencroft the back up hooker is a poor man's George, a good back up. Vunipola is a young flyhalf with a lot of class, looks likely to push Farrell to 12 for club in the coming seasons. Very much one to watch over the next few years.

Recwatcher16 wrote:Leinster's (aka Ireland ) game to lose. European history shows that in the tight knockout phases it is test experience at FH that makes the difference in game management and Farrell missing is a body blow, no matter how much Saracens might deny it.
Looks like Goode will play ten, so not sure who plays fullback which will probably be a target for Sexton (the debate on the Leinster FH for the league final was amusing).

The player Saracens will probably miss most is Will Skelton for his sheer intimidating size and power, but their bench will not be stacked with internationals like their opposition.

It would almost be worth watching to see the supposed moral superiority of the IRFU team if they win, but I don't have Murdoch's Sky, so will miss it.

Leinster are not Ireland. Too many others such as Scannell, Kilcoyne, Henderson, Kleyn, O’Mahony, Murphy, Stander, Murray, Cooney, Marmion, Carberry, Carty, Aki, Farrell, Stockdale, Earls, Conway.

The Leinster bench is
Kelleher, E Byrne, Bent, Baird, VdF, Gibson-Park, R Byrne, O’Loughlin. VdF is the only seasoned capped player.

Pot Hale wrote:

Recwatcher16 wrote:Leinster's (aka Ireland ) game to lose. European history shows that in the tight knockout phases it is test experience at FH that makes the difference in game management and Farrell missing is a body blow, no matter how much Saracens might deny it.
Looks like Goode will play ten, so not sure who plays fullback which will probably be a target for Sexton (the debate on the Leinster FH for the league final was amusing).

The player Saracens will probably miss most is Will Skelton for his sheer intimidating size and power, but their bench will not be stacked with internationals like their opposition.

It would almost be worth watching to see the supposed moral superiority of the IRFU team if they win, but I don't have Murdoch's Sky, so will miss it.

Leinster are not Ireland.    Too many others such as Scannell, Kilcoyne, Henderson, Kleyn, O’Mahony, Murphy, Stander, Murray, Cooney, Marmion, Carberry, Carty, Aki, Farrell, Stockdale, Earls, Conway.

The Leinster bench is
Kelleher, E Byrne, Bent, Baird, VdF, Gibson-Park, R Byrne, O’Loughlin.    VdF is the only seasoned capped player.  

Don't they mean Ireland (aka Leinster) since it is Leinster who identify and bring through the talent. From reading English fans forum online you'd swear Leinster are gifted the players from the IRFU.

All the pre-match reviews seem to be a variation on "Leinster will probably win, but you can't write off Saracens. This is the last chance they have to get something out of the season, and thumb their nose at the world. If Leinster's lineout doesn't function, and Saracens get inside their heads, then the English team will certainly have a chance."

Farrell is a big loss, because Saracens players get a lift from seeing him there. Goode is no dilettante, however. He hasn't got all the cumulative match experience at flyhalf but he has the footballing nous to control a game. It will be a bit of a throwback to the days when Hodgson was in the position.

The fake crowd noise in league matches didn't really matter but it seems surreal in a cup tie.

Alex Goode will be pleased to have had three relatively straightforward kicks to help him settle.

Hard to know how good this lead is with the breeze, and Leinster's proven ability late in games.

Rugby Fan wrote:The fake crowd noise in league matches didn't really matter but it seems surreal in a cup tie.

Only present on TV though, so has no impact on players. (The noise is edited from last years final).

With five minutes to go, Saracens will want to make sure they don't concede. Leinster would like a score but may just fancy playing with the breeze asap.

I don't like Sarries but boy am I enjoying this game.

Did Leinster have a big party after the final last weekend. They look hungover. Inaccurate, lack of intensity and the discipline is poor. Sarries just slowly pulling then apart and building a lead.

Seems ominous that England will dominate the next 6N. Their premiership teams are not only the best on recent form, but they’re stacked full of England players.

Not at all surprised with this start. Saracens have been targeting this game for months and are playing with the intensity you expect. And Leinster were far from sublime against Ulster last week.

Far from over yet though. Leinster have a vastly superior bench, and I doubt Saracens can keep this tempo and fierceness in defence up for 80 whole minutes.

I love Goode. Great player. Better than Farrell imho, just that his dad wasn't a coach.