The Trump Presidency

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Well we'll wait and see about Arizona. Pundits seem to think it's a done deal; they don't seem to have considered it's only Election Day votes left to count.

Ohio called, but Texas and Florida not, which is very poor. Iowa should be called soon for Trump. Trump with healthy leads in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania...he needs 'em if Arizona's going blue.

Georgia seems to be faltering for Trump, but he's still ahead for now. North Carolina's probably in recount territory. unless Trump has more votes to secure it.

This mainstream media bias is quite something. Trump 49-48 ahead in Montana, 50% voted...oh yeah, that's too close to call. Trump 50-48 ahead in Virginia, 76% voted....oh yeah, we're calling that for Biden.

Trump becomes the first President in history to be impeached twice. Over to the Senate now.

Samo wrote:Trump becomes the first President in history to be impeached twice. Over to the Senate now.

It will still require 17 Republicans to vote in favour to find him guilty which feels somewhat unlikely.

If that passes it would only require a majority vote to prevent him ever holding public office again.

Unintended(?) positive knock-on effects of the post-Capitol invasion on Jan 6th, 2021:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/parler-takedown-far-right-uk-tommy-robinson-b1777645.html

Shame...

It'll come down to whether Mitch McConnell can be trusted to do the right thing

A comment from another thread...

rIck_dAgless wrote:Recycling used underwear as face masks could be a goer in niche areas of the internet.

Must say I was very impressed with Nancy Pelosi's two-tone face mask as she delivered the impeachment vote. Sort of half indigo blue and turquoise. It was definitely home made.

Hello!

So today's the day he leaves the White House and f*cks off to Florida. I am here for it, as they say.

What a wonderful day it is. Hopefully the budget Trump c**t we’ve got follows as soon as possible

Lovely to watch all the right wing hard nuts frothing at the mouth all over social media

And Trump can't tweet a word!

Apologies if you've heard this one...

Picture the scene: plane w/ 5 passengers on board. Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, the Pope, Nicola Sturgeon and a 10-y/o boy.

The plane's about to crash and there's only 4 parachutes.

Sturgeon says: "I need one. I've got to sort out Scotland!". She takes one and jumps out.

The Pope says: "I need one. I've got to sort out the Catholic Church!". He takes one and jumps out.

Trump says: "I need one. I'm the smartest person in America!". He takes one and jumps out.

Boris Johnson says to the 10-y/o boy: "You can have the last parachute. I've lived my life and yours is only just beginning."

The 10-y/o boy says: "Oh, don't worry. There are 2 parachutes left. The smartest person in America just took my school bag!"


I'll fetch my coat....

navyblueshorts wrote:Apologies if you've heard this one...

Picture the scene: plane w/ 5 passengers on board. Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, the Pope, Nicola Sturgeon and a 10-y/o boy.

The plane's about to crash and there's only 4 parachutes.

Sturgeon says: "I need one. I've got to sort out Scotland!". She takes one and jumps out.

The Pope says: "I need one. I've got to sort out the Catholic Church!". He takes one and jumps out.

Trump says: "I need one. I'm the smartest person in America!". He takes one and jumps out.

Boris Johnson says to the 10-y/o boy: "You can have the last parachute. I've lived my life and yours is only just beginning."

The 10-y/o boy says: "Oh, don't worry. There are 2 parachutes left. The smartest person in America just took my school bag!"


I'll fetch my coat....

Only problem I have is that I cannot possibly imagine Johnson thinking of anyone else

navyblueshorts wrote:Apologies if you've heard this one...

Picture the scene: plane w/ 5 passengers on board. Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, the Pope, Nicola Sturgeon and a 10-y/o boy.

The plane's about to crash and there's only 4 parachutes.

Sturgeon says: "I need one. I've got to sort out Scotland!". She takes one and jumps out.

The Pope says: "I need one. I've got to sort out the Catholic Church!". He takes one and jumps out.

Trump says: "I need one. I'm the smartest person in America!". He takes one and jumps out.

Boris Johnson says to the 10-y/o boy: "You can have the last parachute. I've lived my life and yours is only just beginning."

The 10-y/o boy says: "Oh, don't worry. There are 2 parachutes left. The smartest person in America just took my school bag!"


I'll fetch my coat....

Must admit, I thought this was going in a different direction...

lostinwales wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:Apologies if you've heard this one...

Picture the scene: plane w/ 5 passengers on board. Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, the Pope, Nicola Sturgeon and a 10-y/o boy.

The plane's about to crash and there's only 4 parachutes.

Sturgeon says: "I need one. I've got to sort out Scotland!". She takes one and jumps out.

The Pope says: "I need one. I've got to sort out the Catholic Church!". He takes one and jumps out.

Trump says: "I need one. I'm the smartest person in America!". He takes one and jumps out.

Boris Johnson says to the 10-y/o boy: "You can have the last parachute. I've lived my life and yours is only just beginning."

The 10-y/o boy says: "Oh, don't worry. There are 2 parachutes left. The smartest person in America just took my school bag!"


I'll fetch my coat....

Only problem I have is that I cannot possibly imagine Johnson thinking of anyone else

Fair point!

Depressing to see that despite the mounting evidence, the Republican Senate still looks like it won't be convinced to convict the orange baboon.

I can't imagine that any average person facing an equivalent level of evidence and charge would walk away from this in a court of law, but this ridiculous system will let him get off

BamBam wrote:Depressing to see that despite the mounting evidence, the Republican Senate still looks like it won't be convinced to convict the orange baboon.

I can't imagine that any average person facing an equivalent level of evidence and charge would walk away from this in a court of law, but this ridiculous system will let him get off

Was never likely to be more than a gesture. Too many republicans fear the wrath of Trump's fans would see their careers end if they vote to convict.

To be honest I think it would have been better to let him slink away into (relative) obscurity without wasting energy on this but I can see why many outraged people felt it necessary to bring the public condemnation to the fore.

Bigger question is how the bulk of the party will move over the next few years : try to distance themselves from the crazies or court the Trump disciples ?

alfie wrote:

BamBam wrote:Depressing to see that despite the mounting evidence, the Republican Senate still looks like it won't be convinced to convict the orange baboon.

I can't imagine that any average person facing an equivalent level of evidence and charge would walk away from this in a court of law, but this ridiculous system will let him get off

Was never likely to be more than a gesture.  Too many republicans fear the wrath of Trump's fans would see their careers end if they vote to convict.

To be honest I think it would have been better to let him slink away into (relative) obscurity without wasting energy on this but I can see why many outraged people felt it necessary to bring the public condemnation to the fore.

Bigger question is how the bulk of the party will move over the next few years : try to distance themselves from the crazies or court the Trump disciples ?

Had to be done, whether outcome foregone or not. The House has done its duty; whether the Senate likewise does its, is another question.

Trump will not slink away. He's had a taste of the ultimate limelight, with captive fans and no obvious consequences. Even if the Senate does convict him, I'd be surprised if he just rode off into the sunset. There's also his psychotic, brainwashed and entitled offspring etc to concern the wider US public as well...

Trump making the headline speech at CPAC this evening, where he may announce another run for the Presidency.

At the very least, it seems to be a confirmation that he will not cede his hold of the Republican Party in the run-up to 2024 and, for now at least, there appears to be no serious opposition to him within the ranks of the Republican Party.

Duty281 wrote:Trump making the headline speech at CPAC this evening, where he may announce another run for the Presidency.

At the very least, it seems to be a confirmation that he will not cede his hold of the Republican Party in the run-up to 2024 and, for now at least, there appears to be no serious opposition to him within the ranks of the Republican Party.

Interesting take on this by Scaramucci, which I think is spot on. Trump will keep doing this as he's happy to fleece the rubes who just chuck money his way. He doesn't give a 4X about anyone except himself. With a bit of luck, one or more of the criminal investigations get him before 2024. Then again, even that probably wouldn't be enough to convince the wider GOP that he's a pr!ck. They've shot their bolt.

I've got '3 mins 30 seconds' in the 'How long into his speech before the first lie' sweepstake. Fingers crossed.

JuliusHMarx wrote:I've got '3 mins 30 seconds' in the 'How long into his speech before the first lie' sweepstake. Fingers crossed.

Did you win?

Many Republicans don't want him any more. Sure, he became POTUS, albeit extremely fortunately, but he also lost them the House and the Senate, costing them an awful lot of power.

Also, he's still going on about winning the election and that absolutely will set him back as far as a nomination goes.

All in all, fantastic news for Democrats, really.

The Republicans ought to think about choosing someone who could actually win the popular vote.

Can the Republican party just not let him stand for candidacy? Im not entirely sure how it works.

Samo wrote:Can the Republican party just not let him stand for candidacy?  Im not entirely sure how it works.

Their chance for that was the impeachment hearing - if found guilty, one of the possible sanctions was a ban from holding public office in future (one of the reasons continuing with the impeachment after the end of Trump's term was both constitutional [it's been done before] and had merit).

I believe the parties can disqualify someone from standing based on their criminal record, but otherwise the Primaries are at least notionally open to anyone who is qualified (i.e. over 35 and a natural born US citizen) - obviously finance is a real issue, and the party hierarchy can do plenty to promote one candidate over others, which the Dems have done in selecting both Hillary and Biden, but which the Republicans failed to do in 2016 sufficiently to get a mainstream candidate for President ahead of Trump.

Of course it's not clear (yet) whether the Republicans would or wouldn't want Trump as the nominee in 2024 - he brings lots of votes from the fringes but loses moderates and mobilises opponents as well as allies. Wasn't quite enough to defeat Biden in the last election, but it will also depend on how the electoral maths has changed with 'Stop the Steal' and the Capitol invasion. If the Republicans think that their best chance in 24 is with Trump they'll back him, but it probably won't become clear until the mid terms in 2022 how strong Trump's political identity remains.

JuliusHMarx wrote:The Republicans ought to think about choosing someone who could actually win the popular vote.

I don't think any Republican candidate will be able to win the popular vote for at least the next few Presidential elections because of how much the Democrats dominate the states of California and New York, which is where the popular vote has been won for the last two elections. And there's no incentive for any Republican candidate to campaign there because of the Electoral College system.

dummy_half wrote:

Samo wrote:Can the Republican party just not let him stand for candidacy?  Im not entirely sure how it works.

Their chance for that was the impeachment hearing - if found guilty, one of the possible sanctions was a ban from holding public office in future (one of the reasons continuing with the impeachment after the end of Trump's term was both constitutional [it's been done before] and had merit).

I believe the parties can disqualify someone from standing based on their criminal record, but otherwise the Primaries are at least notionally open to anyone who is qualified (i.e. over 35 and a natural born US citizen) - obviously finance is a real issue, and the party hierarchy can do plenty to promote one candidate over others, which the Dems have done in selecting both Hillary and Biden, but which the Republicans failed to do in 2016 sufficiently to get a mainstream candidate for President ahead of Trump.

Of course it's not clear (yet) whether the Republicans would or wouldn't want Trump as the nominee in 2024 - he brings lots of votes from the fringes but loses moderates and mobilises opponents as well as allies. Wasn't quite enough to defeat Biden in the last election, but it will also depend on how the electoral maths has changed with 'Stop the Steal' and the Capitol invasion. If the Republicans think that their best chance in 24 is with Trump they'll back him, but it probably won't become clear until the mid terms in 2022 how strong Trump's political identity remains.

Leaving aside everything else about Trump (!) the Republican Party will likely recognise that he is still a formidable political campaigner, who would have most probably won the 2020 Presidential election were it not for the Covid-19 crisis, and even then Trump only lost by an incredibly thin-margin with the EC (the second tightest election in the last 100 years).

They will also see that Trump has boosted the Republican Party by winning a greater number of ethnic minority and LGBT voters. There's also the case that currently no one seems to be better than Trump, in a political campaigning sense, in the Republican Party.

I think Trump is the most likely Republican candidate for 2024, but there's a very long way to go, and issues with regards to health/age/funding/criminal charges may still trip him up.

As Duty infers I suspect very strongly that either health or criminal charges will do for Trump. If I had to put money on it - it would be health though.

Regardless of the validity of the criminal cases I don't think many will stick, although the number of them should raise questions amongst his supporters. Those linked to financial affairs should have the greatest chance of success but will be mired in language that his fan club won't understand.

WH 2024 poll...

Trump 49%
Harris 45%

GOP nomination poll..

Trump 56%
Desantis 9%
Pence 8%.....

Trump still as popular as ever with right..

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:WH 2024 poll...

Trump 49%
Harris 45%

GOP nomination poll..

Trump 56%
Desantis 9%
Pence 8%.....

Trump still as popular as ever with right..

Great news for the Democrats. The Republican zealots may not be done with Trump, but the US as a country is. The longer he stays in front for the GOP, the longer a Democrats sits in the White House.

Well he did come pretty close with a lot of united opposition and momentum against him. Hope he doesn't, but the Dems don't exactly have a compelling candidate

Pr4wn wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:WH 2024 poll...

Trump 49%
Harris 45%

GOP nomination poll..

Trump 56%
Desantis 9%
Pence 8%.....

Trump still as popular as ever with right..

Great news for the Democrats. The Republican zealots may not be done with Trump, but the US as a country is. The longer he stays in front for the GOP, the longer a Democrats sits in the White House.

I give it three and a half years and the Democrats will be out of the White House.

Soul Requiem wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:WH 2024 poll...

Trump 49%
Harris 45%

GOP nomination poll..

Trump 56%
Desantis 9%
Pence 8%.....

Trump still as popular as ever with right..

Great news for the Democrats. The Republican zealots may not be done with Trump, but the US as a country is. The longer he stays in front for the GOP, the longer a Democrats sits in the White House.

I give it three and a half years and the Democrats will be out of the White House.

I’ll take that bet.

The USA is a long way from being 'done' with Trump. He lost the second tightest Presidential election in 100 years, despite the circumstances that went against him. If he ends up being the Republican nominee for 2024 that's bad news for the Democrats, there's no other candidates on the Republican side (currently) with Trump's campaigning skill or reach.

But it may not matter who the Republican candidate is. Biden's Presidency is the disaster many thought it would be, and by the time 2024 rolls around the economic picture in the USA will be bleak with a big spike in inflation. It will be tough for the Democrats to ride that out. Obama managed to ride out a tough economic picture in 2012 (though not as bad as 2024 will likely be) when he won re-election, but he had tremendous personal popularity, something Biden and Harris don't.

“Circumstances that went against him” like being a total Frak disaster for 4 years?

He lost two popular votes, and only won the presidency because of the archaic Electoral College system. He got 74m votes and still lost by over 7m.

Doesnt matter how big a Poopie show Biden is, if the alternative is Trump then the masses will vote against him again.

If you want to tell me how many good Presidents there have been in the last 250 years I'm all ears....

Certainly place Trump above Fillmore, Grant, Hoover, Andy Johnson, Harding, Pierce for starters probably Buchanan too..

Apart from Polk...Jackson.. FDR.. Lincoln...LBJ....Jefferson..Reagan...Wilson and Coolidge can't think of many good ones... Reagan by consensus.

As for the electoral college...Those are the rules and good ones they are too..Or else the people of California would be deciding every Election and we'd have a one party state..

Without Covid Trump wins in 2020....The polls all had him way ahead...Yes he was an idiot but the Economy and jobs were in a good place...History shows Presidents never lose with a decent Economy perhaps with exceptions like Arthur and Cleveland who had internal struggles... With moderates and stalwarts respectively ..

Doubt Trump will run.. But in marginals like Wisconsin and Ohio which are 85% white he'd be more than competitive with Kamala Harris.

Trump wasn't a disaster. Economy, jobs, foreign policy, tackling violent crime, gun policy scored well for him with voters. Covid-19 was the deciding factor, ultimately. If Covid doesn't happen Trump wins by a comfortable margin; instead he loses by the thinnest of edges.

Popular vote is irrelevant. I can't see a situation in the near-future where any Republican wins the popular vote because California and NY decide who wins on that basis...and there's little incentive for Republicans to vote in those states because it's solid Democrat, and there's equally little incentive for Republican candidates to campaign there.

If Trump runs again in 2024, presuming his health/energy is the same as now, he will likely win, especially with the Democrats likely to be in a difficult position.

Trump's abject response to covid was the deciding factor. Not covid. An important distinction.

Covid in itself was a deciding factor. If Covid doesn't happen, Trump gets re-elected.

It's possible that if Trump had a stronger response to Covid he would have got re-elected, but that isn't set in stone.

Yeah, if he'd pushed the injecting bleach solution harder he'd have been a two term president.

Its irrelevant. Trump is done. His business dealings have always depended on a combination of being too big to fail and being one step ahead of the creditors. Being president he was able to delay the inevitable for longer but he's not there anymore. The banks and the tax authorities are going to eat him up.

Duty281 wrote:Covid in itself was a deciding factor. If Covid doesn't happen, Trump gets re-elected.

It's possible that if Trump had a stronger response to Covid he would have got re-elected, but that isn't set in stone.

And if I had wheels, I'd be a wagon. Trump is deranged and he's done. Hoping he wins the nomination, says more vile stuff so that the Americans can reject him in record numbers yet again.

Biden's approval ratings have completely collapsed, with the disastrous way he's handled Covid and the Afghan withdrawal being the reason, and his polling returns on his economic policy are also wavering.

And he's facing a small Democratic rebellion as he tries to get his trillion-dollar spending spree off the ground in the small window of time he has available before the Republicans (likely) take back control of the House in next year's midterms.

Concerning times for the Democrats.

Biden v Trump

Biden
Approve......47
Disapprove 47

Trump
Approve......39
Disapprove 58

Biden has healthy leads in the Bellwethers...

However Trump v Harris is pickem....and that is the game in 2024 unless Trump loses to Desantis who is the only serious threat or he decides he is too old.

Leger poll..

Biden
App..... .48
Disapp..49

Harris
App.......44
Disapp..53

Biden would win an Election on these ratings.. Harris probably wouldn't.

My bet is that if Trump is the Republican nominee, and Americans are given the option of four more years of the Trump show, a good enough number of them will say, 'I'd rather not, thanks'.

Also, on the subject of COVID, every world leader was faced with this problem. They didn't all make a monumental horlicks of it.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Also, on the subject of COVID, every world leader was faced with this problem. They didn't all make a monumental horlicks of it.

There will be some variation in quality of response but do think there will be a reasonable correlation between leaders who are ideologues or populist grifters and poor responses

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/12/politics/cnn-poll-donald-trump-republicans/index.html

I thought this was very interesting. A decent majority still think Trump should be the leader of the party, but they're split almost exactly down the middle as to whether having his name on the ticket in 2024 would be a help or a hindrance.

'Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say, 63% to 37%, that Trump should be the leader of the Republican Party. But they are about evenly split over whether having the defeated former President back on the ticket in 2024 would be an advantage: 51% say that Republicans have a better chance of retaking the presidency if Trump is the nominee, with 49% saying the party would be better off with a different nominee. That's a very different landscape from 2019, when more than three-quarters of Republicans said their party had a better shot in 2020 with Trump as their nominee than they would with a different candidate.'

Still plenty of time for a rival candidate to emerge.

Duty281 wrote:Biden's approval ratings have completely collapsed, with the disastrous way he's handled Covid and the Afghan withdrawal being the reason, and his polling returns on his economic policy are also wavering.  

And he's facing a small Democratic rebellion as he tries to get his trillion-dollar spending spree off the ground in the small window of time he has available before the Republicans (likely) take back control of the House in next year's midterms.

Concerning times for the Democrats.

Even more concerning times as the Republicans win the gubernatorial election in Virginia, with Biden's approval ratings at 43% and likely to slide further. As things stand 2024 is going to be a procession for whichever candidate the Republicans end up with.

Democrats won Virginia by 10%..2020

Food for thought...Though other factors would be in play...

GOP winner was a big Trump supporter.