2021 Season Thread

[Lowlandbrit]

First topic message reminder :

Racing calendar TBC, but enough news to get us started!

Alejandro Valverde has said this will be his last season, with the Olympics as his main focus.

Jumbo-Visma announced take two for their 'three-headed monster' Tour strategy after Kruijswijk's injury prevented it last year, only for Tom Dumoulin to announce he's taking an unspecified amount of time off the day after.

WorldTour team changes:
- If you thought AG2R La Mondiale had the ultimate marmite kit before, wait until you see what they've come up with now that they're AG2R Citroën
- McLaren are gone, now we have Bahrain Victorious
- Mitchelton-Scott is now Team BikeExchange
- The place of CCC has been taken in by Intermarché–Wanty–Gobert
- NTT are now Team Qhubeka Assos
- Sunweb are now Team DSM

[Guest]

Team TT I quite like! But individual is not for me from a spectator point of view. Even when it’s the end of the Tour and it decides places. It’s part of it so I’m not saying to get rid of it. Just a personal grumble. Just always feels a bit flat going from the normal stage races to a TT day. Kinda feels like a rest day (as a spectator).

[dummy_half]

I have to say though that the time trial does nothing for me! I know it’s a discipline within a discipline and allows a different type of rider to gain time etc., which should add some excitement to the overall race and standings, but I can’t get excited by it!

Pretty much agree with you there - I think they are needed in the race, but from a viewing perspective they are rather flat.

You not enjoy the finale to the Tour last year?

There are of course exceptions - I'm old enough to remember Lemond beating Fignon in the 89 Tour with the final ITT on the Champs Elysees, so context of when in the race and the significance does matter, but these early race ITTs are really just about setting the race up for what is to come in the mountains. Clearly, given the results yesterday, it's going to be all attacking Pogacar if possible.

[Soul Requiem]

I don't mind the ITT coming early in the tour, I actually felt last year was ruined by having a ITT as the penultimate stage as it was when Evans won, doesn't give an opportunity for others to then attack back.

[Big]

I'm a big fan of the ITT, for me there's something about stripping it all back to one rider and their bike - having to get a result without a team to pull them along. Also, how could anyone not enjoy cheering van der Poel to the finish for another couple of days in the yellow jersey? I get that it doesn't have the immediate head to head element of mountains/sprints, but I still really enjoy them. Maybe more time checks would give a bit more of an in race feel for how the riders are doing relative to each other while still out on the course, but even without I'm happy.

[dummy_half]

Soul
Don't know how long you have followed cycling, but until maybe a decade ago the Tour routinely had a team time trial in the first couple of days, then a long, usually flattish ITT before the mountains and a final ITT after the last mountains (usually penultimate day). Occasionally, for variety, there would be a mountain ITT. Most times, the GC was well established before the final TT, although with exceptions in 87 when Roche took the yellow jersey from Delgardo, and famously 89 with Lemond and Fignon.

TT's have also got shorter - most of the ones in the Indurain era were over 50 km, sometimes well over (in 1992 62 and 64 km. If you go back to Merckx or Anquetil's times 70 and 80 km time trials were a thing, and the longest ever was in 1947, being 139 km long)

[Soul Requiem]

Soul
Don't know how long you have followed cycling, but until maybe a decade ago the Tour routinely had a team time trial in the first couple of days, then a long, usually flattish ITT before the mountains and a final ITT after the last mountains (usually penultimate day). Occasionally, for variety, there would be a mountain ITT. Most times, the GC was well established before the final TT, although with exceptions in 87 when Roche took the yellow jersey from Delgardo, and famously 89 with Lemond and Fignon.

TT's have also got shorter - most of the ones in the Indurain era were over 50 km, sometimes well over (in 1992 62 and 64 km. If you go back to Merckx or Anquetil's times 70 and 80 km time trials were a thing, and the longest ever was in 1947, being 139 km long)

I've followed it since the mid 90's. I wouldn't mind if there was a ITT in the final week as long as it's not the penultimate stage, it ends up putting far too much weight into one stage as last year showed. There's been occassions like in 2012 when it's made little difference but the route the next year was a lot better and at least gave Quintana an opportunity to attack Froome in the final week.

Communication as it is on the tour now means the event isn't quite like it was in the 80's, we would never get a 1987 Stephen Roche moment nowadays.

[dummy_half]

Anyway, we're back on Cav watch today. Very straight-forward stage with just one (generously) categorised Cat 4 climb, so surely to be a sprint finish

Tomorrow is more interesting - long day (249km) with a lot of lumpy bits in the last 80 km or so - 2 cat 4s, 2 cat 3s and 1 cat 2. Last summit about 8 km from the finish. If this was between the mountain stages, it would be a classic transition stage with a breakaway win, but might be kept together for the likes of Sagan or Colbrelli to have a go (assuming it's a bit too tough for the pure sprinters).

After that, a relatively modest alpine stage - not likely to majorly shake up the GC amongst the major contenders, and then a tougher mountain-top finish that will show who is really in a position to challenge Pogacar.

[Guest]

Cav, another stage win. Incredible

Two off Merckx record.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

How many more “sprint” stages are there to go? Obviously presuming Cav can make it through the mountain stages…which isn’t to be presumed!

[formerly known as Sam]

I think Tuesday is another sprint before it starts getting lumpy again. If Cav can get through the weekend he'll have another shot then. Wednesday is tough but there's opportunities Thursday and Friday before another weekend of climbing. For the story and the romantic narrative we want Cav to equal the record on the final stage in Paris right?

I do like the TT but wish they'd bring back the team version for earlier in the tour and then maybe fit a longer one ITT in as well. Some of them are a bit short currently.

[Azabache]

Now you're talking Soul-the 1987 Tour! When men were men and the route norm was around or over the 4,000KM mark.

[dummy_half]

I think Tuesday is another sprint before it starts getting lumpy again. If Cav can get through the weekend he'll have another shot then. Wednesday is tough but there's opportunities Thursday and Friday before another weekend of climbing. For the story and the romantic narrative we want Cav to equal the record on the final stage in Paris right?

I do like the TT but wish they'd bring back the team version for earlier in the tour and then maybe fit a longer one ITT in as well. Some of them are a bit short currently.

Got to be either the equalling or surpassing the record in Paris (where of course Cav in his prime was dominant), with Merckx to do the podium ceremony.

[dummy_half]

Crazy start to the stage, with a group of 30 now being 4 minutes up the road. The break away includes:
Van Der Poel
Van Aert
Nibali
Cavendish (has already taken the intermediate sprint)
Asgreen
Yates

[CaledonianCraig]

Crazy start to the stage, with a group of 30 now being 4 minutes up the road. The break away includes:
Van Der Poel
Van Aert
Nibali
Cavendish (has already taken the intermediate sprint)
Asgreen
Yates

I should think that group will splinter as the stage moves into the hillier terrain though the likes of Nibali may kick on.

[Soul Requiem]

It looks like Cav is going after the green jersey then, was always a travesty that Sagan kept winning despite not being in the conversation for best sprinter. Something that's been overlooked is that yesterday was his 50th grand tour stage win, obviously has won the points classification at all three, some record.

[dummy_half]

Crazy start to the stage, with a group of 30 now being 4 minutes up the road. The break away includes:
Van Der Poel
Van Aert
Nibali
Cavendish (has already taken the intermediate sprint)
Asgreen
Yates

I should think that group will splinter as the stage moves into the hillier terrain though the likes of Nibali may kick on.

The main thing was that only 5 teams weren't represented, and all the pressure to chase has fallen to UAE. However, it's very difficult for one team to keep control when most of the break are happy working together for the moment (even had Cav on the front, if only briefly).

Out to 6 minutes with just under 100 km left.

Be interesting to see if the last part favours the pure climbers (Nibbles, Yates) or if the power riders like Asgreen and vdP can be a factor. Obviously some of the break will be dropped when the road climbs, especially when it gets to the 2nd cat climb, which is the second last.

[dummy_half]

So Mohoric rode off the front of the break in a small break, ended up solo on the penultimate climb and held off the rest for a win by a minute. The break was seriously whittled down towards the end, with only about 10 or so finishing ahead of the main peloton. Still let Nibali gain a couple of minutes, and van der Poel extended his lead (though not over van Aert).

Biggest issue for GC, assuming van der Poel loses the expected time in the mountains, is that Roglic was dropped from the main GC group and lost nearly 4 minutes to Pogacar, Carapaz and Thomas.

[Azabache]

Wonderful "old-fashioned" stage with them all strung out over the route. Almost as if they didn't have radios.

I've always struggled to have any liking for Roglic but I felt sorry for him-obviously suffering due to being bruised and cut to pieces.

And the valiant Carapaz ends up with nothing!

[Guest]

Nobody stopping Tadej Pogacar this year

[Lowlandbrit]

Wow. Certainly can't say he's just hiding behind his team. Dominant display to kill off what competition was left.

[formerly known as Sam]

Bet they checked Pogacar's bike for a motor he certainly looked like he had an engine powering up those mountains. What a machine. Too early to crown him yet but he's certainly put himself in the perfect position to defend his title.

[CaledonianCraig]

Wow. Pogacar demolished the field in one insane attack leaving other teams and riders in disarray. The race for yellow is all but over and I would not count against him building on his lead too. An epic stage swamped with attacks from the off and team orders meant nothing on a testing mountain stage. Bring on tomorrow.

[formerly known as Sam]

For those saying that it's over already do consider there's another set of mountain tests and do remember Almeida and Yates. They looked dominant and held the jersey for a sustained period of time. Yates in particular we all had as wearing Pink at the finale before the implosion under the pressure of Froome.

[Azabache]

Did you see that umbrella that some clot dropped blow across the road in front of him? In previous years we've had the occasional dog...

Anything can happen in an instant....

[dummy_half]

Does look like the only thing to stop Pogacar would be an accident. Utterly dominant in a way that hasn't been seen for a long time.

[CaledonianCraig]

For those saying that it's over already do consider there's another set of mountain tests and do remember Almeida and Yates. They looked dominant and held the jersey for a sustained period of time. Yates in particular we all had as wearing Pink at the finale before the implosion under the pressure of Froome.

Pogacar is a proven climber as we saw again yesterday so he is not going to fear the mountains. To be fair to Almeida and Yates, Pogacar is on a totally different level of greatness compared to them in my opinion.

[Lowlandbrit]

There is a chance that he's peaking early, considering how strong he already looked in the first days. But as with Bernal in the Giro, it doesn't really matter if nobody's left in striking range.

[formerly known as Sam]

For those saying that it's over already do consider there's another set of mountain tests and do remember Almeida and Yates. They looked dominant and held the jersey for a sustained period of time. Yates in particular we all had as wearing Pink at the finale before the implosion under the pressure of Froome.

Pogacar is a proven climber as we saw again yesterday so he is not going to fear the mountains. To be fair to Almeida and Yates, Pogacar is on a totally different level of greatness compared to them in my opinion.

Simon Yates is an exceptional climber and spent two weeks at Grio taking time at any finish that had a climb near it. Broke and fell apart in the final week. I'd say the main difference here is how well Team Emirates are marshalling around him to guide him up the mountains. That level of protection really helped maximise Froome in previous years. 

No one is comfortable in the mountains, bad weather on steep descents can be lethal and everyone gets tired you just have to judge your efforts as best you can and hope no one attacks you at the point you are feeling it the most.

[Lowlandbrit]

I've found it interesting watching Pogacar, because I don't think we really had a chance to see who he is as a rider until now. It's an unfortunate comparison, but he's starting to give me serious Armstrong vibes: he looks to have that dominating, ruthless 'you can have only what I let you have' streak in him.

[Soul Requiem]

Some of his performances beggar belief so the Armstrong comparison is inevitable.

[formerly known as Sam]

And yet until his big attack at the end he looked like he was going to lose the yellow jersey. The power after Ineos had stripped away all his support riders was impressive. He was isolated easily though and if Ineos want to get to him then they've got to keep isolating him and forcing him into attacks. The Pyrenees are still to come after all.

[Azabache]

Yes, the copywriters are certainly having a field day and I hope that some reality comes in, like:
. we're not halfway yet
. as well as the Pyrenees mentioned, there's the slight matter of a double ascent of a little climb in Provence

Even the usually reliable and well-experienced David Millar is into hero worship mode.

We may very well be at the onset of another Merckx-like era, but let's keep calm eh? Remember, 2 years ago folk were predicting a 5-year dominance by Bernal; true, he came back to a magnificent Giro performance but he was looking a bit fragile....

[formerly known as Sam]

Ah yes the double ascent. Looking forward to that one though I guess the sprinters are probably dreading it. If Pogacar's team is struggling to protect him that could be one to isolate him and try to break him. The chasing pack will have to work together instead of attacking one another though otherwise Pogacar will leave them behind again.

[Guest]

Cavendish no. 33, one off, Merckx. Incredible.

[Guest]

What a lead out!

[dummy_half]

Cavendish no. 33, one off, Merckx. Incredible.

I wonder what odds you'd have got last year on Cav even winning one more Tour stage in his career, never mind potentially getting to and past Merckx's stage win record in this race?
OK, a bit like England at the Euros, things have fallen his way a bit in that the best sprinters of the last couple of years are absent for a variety of reasons, but you can only beat what is in front of you, and Cav has now done that three times.

[formerly known as Sam]

There's still some pretty good sprinters in there. That Sagan fellow is quite handy. He also made it past Sunday when others didn't. He's ground it out and then produced the goods at the end. Imagine going from minimum wage injury cover to winning the green jersey. If he does that and equals Mercx record that will be a sensational comeback.

[dummy_half]

No Bennett, Groenewegen or Gaviria at ghe start for various reasons, Ewan out to a crash and now Demare and Mellier beaten by the Alps. Sagan is a fine rider but even at his best was rarely an absolute elite sprinter unless it was a tough finish.

I'm not trying to undermine Cav's achievements as I'm a huge fan, but he's certainly found himself with an opportunity this year that wasn't expected.

[formerly known as Sam]

No Bennett, Groenewegen or Gaviria at ghe start for various reasons, Ewan out to a crash and now Demare and Mellier beaten by the Alps. Sagan is a fine rider but even at his best was rarely an absolute elite sprinter unless it was a tough finish.

I'm not trying to undermine Cav's achievements as I'm a huge fan, but he's certainly found himself with an opportunity this year that wasn't expected.

The opportunities keeping stacking up in his favour but he built some form up pre Tour and has ridden brilliantly throughout. You always need some luck along the way. Pogacar is being labelled the next Mercx but had Roglic and Thomas not crashed and sustained injuries would he have had it all his own way as he has?

[Azabache]

Almost unbearable following him-like England!

Yes, the cards are in his favour this year, and, as said, he can only beat what's in front of him. The apparent happy mien of his team, which is infectious, is incalculable too.

[formerly known as Sam]

Almost unbearable following him-like England!

Yes, the cards are in his favour this year, and, as said, he can only beat what's in front of him. The apparent happy mien of his team, which is infectious, is incalculable too.

Yes it's great to see the camaraderie in the DQS team. Seems are good place to be at the minute and you can't bet against more stage wins from them whether it's Cav or one of the others if the rolling terrain suits.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Still a fair few mountains for Cav to get over before he can get to Paris, or even the next sprint stage opportunity...with Ventoux being climbed twice today!

[Big]

It's not a given, but I'm reasonably optimistic Cav can get through today's ride without being beaten by the cut off, as he looks to be going okay. I'm a bit more concerned about his lack of specific preparation time when we get to week 3 and there are a succession of tough days in the Pyrenees. Reaching Paris is far from a given in my mind.

As to today, I'm not really sure what to expect. I'm guessing that like Sunday just gone, the best way for competitors in the GC to take time out of Pogacar is to try and get in a breakaway, and Quintana might also fancy adding some more polka dot jersey points to his tally. Beyond that, I haven't a clue!

[dummy_half]

Last climb (and descent) to go, and Cav's group (the main autobus) 20 minutes behind the race lead, about 15 minutes behind the yellow jersey group. Should be OK, especially as the leaders are likely to slow - van Aert currently out on his own.

Ben O'Connor just dropped from the GC group - will be a case of limiting his losses to the other podium contenders.

[Big]

A comfy 7 minutes ahead of the cut-off in the end, and that despite Van Aert's incredible solo ride. So Cav survives to make an attempt to match Merckx's record over the next couple of days.

Having said that the best way for competitors to get time out of Pogacar is to be in the break, I'm not sure if the stage proved me right or wrong. Vingegaard breaking him on the last stretch of the climb was not what I expected and shows there might be more to play for than I thought with several big mountain finishes to come, but the descent meant Pogacar, Uran and Carapaz were able to catch him and he ultimately got naught for his effort.

[dummy_half]

Wout van Aert wins the stage. No major shake up of the GC other than Ben O'Connor dropping from 2nd to 6th - other contenders mostly either same time as Pogacar or dropped about 20 seconds.

Cavendish's group finished 7 minutes inside the time limit, so not too bad. Luke Rowe and Soren Kragh Andersen miss the time cut.

Correction - Andersen made it in by 4 seconds!

[Mad for Chelsea]

Some ride by Van Aert that.

Cav safely inside the time limit, without too many alarms. Impressive that DQS pull 3-4 riders back to help him whenever he gets dropped. Shows the great team spirit, but also the respect that Cav commands within the team that his teammates will work for him so selflessly.

Speaking of the DQS team, that lead-out yesterday was exceptional. As good as anything we saw in the HTC days, just absolutely textbook riding, pretty much throughout the stage in fact.

Back to today's stage, Pogacar showing signs of mortality? Nice work by Ineos to isolate him, only to <checks notes> then help him chase down Visnegaard?? Yes, I know Carapaz and Uran had GC places to protect, but I just don't get it. The leader of the race is showing signs of weakness (small, admittedly), so you choose to help him out? Poor IMO, but perhaps a sign that they really are happy racing for second.

[dummy_half]

Some ride by Van Aert that.

Cav safely inside the time limit, without too many alarms. Impressive that DQS pull 3-4 riders back to help him whenever he gets dropped. Shows the great team spirit, but also the respect that Cav commands within the team that his teammates will work for him so selflessly.

Speaking of the DQS team, that lead-out yesterday was exceptional. As good as anything we saw in the HTC days, just absolutely textbook riding, pretty much throughout the stage in fact.

Back to today's stage, Pogacar showing signs of mortality? Nice work by Ineos to isolate him, only to <checks notes> then help him chase down Visnegaard?? Yes, I know Carapaz and Uran had GC places to protect, but I just don't get it. The leader of the race is showing signs of weakness (small, admittedly), so you choose to help him out? Poor IMO, but perhaps a sign that they really are happy racing for second.

Having decided that Alaphillipe wasn't going to chase a position on the GC, the team is racing for stage wins and the green jersey, so it makes sense to do what they can to help and protect Cav, since he's their best option for more stage wins (plus the reflected kudos of him breaking Merckx's record in their jersey if it comes about).

Two possible sprint stages next (although these inter-mountain stages often end up won by a breakaway of non-threatening riders), then a lumpy day that might suit Alaphillipe (or any number of the lesser climbers who have yet to make their mark on the race) before we are back into the serious mountains.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Van Aert is a bit of a monster isn't he? Reckon he has a chance to win a grand tour at some point? Probably needs to be a bit of a Wiggins-esque profile in terms of stages, lots of grinding climbs and TTs, but maybe not out of his reach?

[formerly known as Sam]

Van Aert is a bit of a monster isn't he? Reckon he has a chance to win a grand tour at some point? Probably needs to be a bit of a Wiggins-esque profile in terms of stages, lots of grinding climbs and TTs, but maybe not out of his reach?

Maybe but like Wiggins he'd need the complete backing of a team to do it. Got to have a team strong enough to keep him in touch up the mountain sections so he can take time where his power can come to the fore.

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