South Africa v British & Irish Lions, 24 July

by **George Carlin** Sat 17 Jul 2021, 8:00 pm

First topic message reminder :

South Africa v British & Irish Lions, 24 July - Page 9 A_10

South Africa v British & Irish Lions, 24 July - Page 9 Lions_10

SOUTH AFRICA v BRITISH & IRISH LIONS
Saturday 24 July
KO: 18:00 SAST / 17:00 UK / 20:00 Dubai Very Happy

Cape Town Stadium (Newlands), Cape Town
Sky Sports Main Event

Referee: Nic Berry (Australia)
Assistant Referees: Ben O’Keeffe, Mathieu Raynal
TMO: Marius Bloody Jonker of all people

TEAMS:

SOUTH AFRICA:
15 – Willie le Roux (Toyota Verblitz) – 62 caps, 60 pts (12t)
14 – Cheslin Kolbe (Toulouse) – 14 caps, 40 pts (8t)
13 – Lukhanyo Am (Cell C Sharks) – 15 caps, 15 pts (3t)
12 – Damian de Allende (Munster) – 47 caps, 30 pts (6t)
11 – Makazole Mapimpi (Cell C Sharks) – 14 caps, 70 pts (14t)
10 – Handré Pollard (vice-captain – Montpellier) – 49 caps, 465pts (6t, 78c, 89p, 4d)
09 – Faf de Klerk (Sale Sharks) – 30 caps, 20 pts (4t)

08 – Kwagga Smith (Yamaha Júbilo) – 7 caps, 5 pts (1t)
07 – Pieter-Steph du Toit (DHL Stormers) – 56 caps, 25 pts (5t)
06 – Siya Kolisi (captain – Cell C Sharks) – 51 caps, 30 pts (6t)
05 – Franco Mostert (Honda Heat) – 40 caps, 5pts (1t)
04 – Eben Etzebeth (Toulon) – 86 caps, 15 pts (3t)
03 – Trevor Nyakane (Vodacom Bulls) – 43 caps, 5 pts (1t)
02 – Bongi Mbonambi (DHL Stormers) – 37 caps, 40 pts (8t)
01 – Ox Nché (Cell C Sharks) – 2 caps, 0 pts

16 – Malcolm Marx (Kubota Spears) – 34 caps, 30 pts (6t)
17 – Steven Kitshoff (DHL Stormers) – 48 caps, 5pts (1t)
18 – Frans Malherbe (DHL Stormers) – 39 caps, 5pts (1t)
19 – Lood de Jager (Sale Sharks) – 45 caps, 25 pts (5t)
20 – Rynhardt Elstadt (Toulouse) – 2 caps, 0 pts
21 – Herschel Jantjies (DHL Stormers) – 11 caps, 25 pts (5t)
22 – Elton Jantjies (Pau) – 38 caps, 283 pts (2t, 63c, 49p)
23 – Damian Willemse (DHL Stormers) – 7 caps, 5pts (1t)

BRITISH & IRISH LIONS:
15. Stuart Hogg (Exeter, Scotland) #783
14. Anthony Watson (Bath Rugby, England) #816
13. Elliot Daly (Saracens, England) #822
12. Robbie Henshaw (Leinster Rugby, Ireland) #824
11. Duhan van der Merwe (Worcester Warriors, Scotland) #841
10. Dan Biggar (Northampton Saints, Wales) #821
09. Ali Price (Glasgow Warriors, Scotland) #843

01. Rory Sutherland (Worcester, Scotland) #840
02. Luke Cowan-Dickie (Exeter, England) #851
03. Tadhg Furlong (Leinster Rugby, Ireland) #818
04. Maro Itoje (Saracens, England) #825
05. Alun Wyn Jones (C) (Ospreys, Wales) #761
06. Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints, England) #826
07. Tom Curry (Sale Sharks, England) #853
08. Jack Conan (Leinster Rugby, Ireland) #839

16. Ken Owens (Scarlets, Wales) #829
17. Mako Vunipola (Saracens, England) #787
18. Kyle Sinckler (Bristol Bears, England) #814
19. Tadhg Beirne (Munster Rugby, Ireland) #838
20. Hamish Watson (Edinburgh Rugby, Scotland) #847
21. Conor Murray (Munster Rugby, Ireland) #790
22. Owen Farrell (Saracens, England) #780
23. Liam Williams (Scarlets, Wales) #833

PREVIEW:

by protea438 Thu 22 Jul 2021, 11:06 am

Old Man wrote:
George Carlin wrote:Good luck, Old Man.

I note all the comments about what you're worried about but I can't help but liken you to my mate who used to spend all of his time fretting that he wasn't studying hard enough and then get an 'A' in the test anyway.

George, during the RWC 2019, I had zero expectations of the Springboks making the Semi finals. Both Ireland and Wales had our number in the previous years, and our route to the final would have been Ireland and Wales.

Japan did us a huge favour.

Our record during Allister Coetzee damaged the “Aura” of the Boks severely, listening to players and what they said during the making of Chasing the Sun, many of them considered retiring from international rugby.

Rassie came in and achieved miracles, but even then, our first choice backline was severly inexperienced. Am, Nkosi, Kolbe and Mapimpi had less than a dozen test matches going into the RWC.

This tour for all its challenges is the litmus test of whether as so many pundits have suggested, are the Boks ligitimately the number one team, or were they just lucky.

Remember its okay to think positively about ones national team, its not a crime to think otherwise. The Boks were rightfully the best side at and after the 2019 World Cup

by No 7&1/2 Thu 22 Jul 2021, 11:09 am

George Carlin wrote:Agree. The other interesting thing is how one selection moves other selections around.

Owen Slot in the Times has the great factoid (if correct, of course) that once the coaching side all agreed that Ali Price should start then AW Jones had to start too because they needed at least one of their tour captains on the pitch at all times and if it wasn't Murray, then it had to be Jones. Not sure if that's 100% true as it seems a bit simplistic but I can see how one stand-out player can affect other selections. You need to build a team around a handful of key players.

I can see the logic, comes backs to pick the team then the captain.

by **RiscaGame** Thu 22 Jul 2021, 11:11 am

George Carlin wrote:Agree. The other interesting thing is how one selection moves other selections around.

Owen Slot in the Times has the great factoid (if correct, of course) that once the coaching side all agreed that Ali Price should start then AW Jones had to start too because they needed at least one of their tour captains on the pitch at all times and if it wasn't Murray, then it had to be Jones. Not sure if that's 100% true as it seems a bit simplistic but I can see how one stand-out player can affect other selections. You need to build a team around a handful of key players.

I think I remember Gatland saying as much, in an interview? I'll try find it.

by **RiscaGame** Thu 22 Jul 2021, 11:16 am

Wales Online transcript of Presser wrote:

Gatland on Alun Wyn Jones

"It’s great in terms of him making a brilliant recovery to make himself available again.

"He had some time on the pitch last weekend. It’s fantastic.

"There was a lot of discussions. We did discuss weather we started him on the bench again.

"When the decision was made when we were going to go with Ali Price, we felt we needed his experience in the second row.

"It’s a great boost to the squad and everyone to have him back."

by lostinwales Thu 22 Jul 2021, 11:21 am

protea438 wrote:
Old Man wrote:
George Carlin wrote:Good luck, Old Man.

I note all the comments about what you're worried about but I can't help but liken you to my mate who used to spend all of his time fretting that he wasn't studying hard enough and then get an 'A' in the test anyway.

George, during the RWC 2019, I had zero expectations of the Springboks making the Semi finals. Both Ireland and Wales had our number in the previous years, and our route to the final would have been Ireland and Wales.

Japan did us a huge favour.

Our record during Allister Coetzee damaged the “Aura” of the Boks severely, listening to players and what they said during the making of Chasing the Sun, many of them considered retiring from international rugby.

Rassie came in and achieved miracles, but even then, our first choice backline was severly inexperienced. Am, Nkosi, Kolbe and Mapimpi had less than a dozen test matches going into the RWC.

This tour for all its challenges is the litmus test of whether as so many pundits have suggested, are the Boks ligitimately the number one team, or were they just lucky.

Remember its okay to think positively about ones national team, its not a crime to think otherwise. The Boks were rightfully the best side at and after the 2019 World Cup

At the RWC of course. After who knows because they haven't played until now

by takethelongroad Thu 22 Jul 2021, 11:45 am

Loving the excitement of the build up, the debates on here and the viewpoints added from those who follow nations that are not mine. I think this tour shows that a current national side head coach should not be head coach of the lions. It would be very hard to say to your domestic squad - go for it guys, you are the best on the 6n in your position, go on and smash all comers. Then not select them for a lions squad, and then return to national squad duties and have to rebuild the confidence of any jettisoned players. The balance between selection of each nation this time round makes me think a free hand to pick is better for everyone as Gats is free to select without restriction. Good luck team for Saturday, I hope the game is colossal.

by No 7&1/2 Thu 22 Jul 2021, 11:54 am

Nice article from XV Rugby by Owain Jones.

'Warren Gatland called it his most difficult selection meeting in his four tours with the Lions and there was disbelief in some quarters that the likes of Chris Harris, Josh Adams and Taulupe Faletau had not even made the 23, while Tadhg Beirne and Liam Williams had made it only onto the bench but the Lions head coach is used to making tough decisions and he has stressed to the unfortunate players omitted that they may still have a chance in Tests 2 and 3.

For those who have been handed the opportunity, it represents the chance of a lifetime; to become a Lions legend.

15. Stuart Hogg

Why’s he been picked? After not making the Test team in 2013, and being poleaxed by Conor Murray in friendly-fire to send him home in 2017, Stuart Hogg must have thought he was jinxed to wear a Test shirt when he was forced to isolate after coming into close contact with someone who tested positive for Covid at the start of tour and forced to stay in isolation in Johannesburg, missing three games. His spritely showing against the Stormers, on the back of consistently strong form for Scotland and growing leadership skills have seen him picked. He has a howitzer of a boot on him and loves nothing more than leading a rearguard action with turf in front of him.

Risk factor (out of 5) 3

Hogg came into the tour under a slight cloud, after being dropped by his club coach, Rob Baxter, who instead preferred Jack Nowell for Exeter’s run-in. Given the Springboks are expected to pepper the back-three with bombs, he is not renowned as a peerless mid-air merchant and his defence has been found wanting at times during his career.

14. Anthony Watson

Why’s he been picked? Watson was one of England’s stronger performers during a disappointing Six Nations campaign and he has carried his form into tour. Gatland will admire his sparkling footwork that allows him to evade defenders but it is the hard work he has done on his aerial game that has secured him a Test place. Watson’s all-round game has seen him regularly play for Bath at full-back this season and his experience, he was a tourist in 2017, and error-free game have seen as a banker in the team.

Risk factor 1

Watson has come back from two Achilles injuries and with such a fast-twitch fibre athlete, muscle injuries are a constant worry. The England wing has few weaknesses but he will be feeling his way into his relationship with Stuart Hogg having not played together on tour.

13. Elliot Daly

Why’s he been picked? Four months ago, with brickbats ringing in his ears and calls for him to be dropped from England’s line-up occurring on a daily basis, Elliott Daly may have thought a starting spot in the Test dream was a pipe dream. Daly’s versatility has sometimes counted against him, but on a short, intense tour it plays to his strengths. The Saracens outside back can play with an 11, 13, 14 and 15 on his back but it is in the outside-centre channel that he has been picked to add some elan and a left-footed kicking game. Daly also has one of the biggest boots in world rugby, so if there are chances to slot a penalty from 50-60m, he will step-up.

Elliot Daly
Elliot Daly has shown his versatility and pace to squeeze past Chris Harris for the No 13 shirt (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Risk factor 4

Daly has had a rocky 18 months or so playing at full-back for England where his defensive positioning was exposed on numerous times, leading to a loss of confidence. His first-up tackling is also a little on the barn-door side at times and he can get overpowered but his obvious gifts, outside the robust Robbie Henshaw were too much to ignore. The Swiss Army knife of outside-backs.

12. Robbie Henshaw

Why’s he been picked? Henshaw was the standout midfielder in the Six Nations, which came off the back of an outstanding Autumn campaign for Ireland. At nearly 6ft 3in and over 16st, the former Connacht man has the heft to truck it up route one, but also the distribution skills to put outside backs into holes and the footwork step round defenders.

Risk factor 2

Henshaw picked up a hamstring injury in the game against Japan which ruled him out of the majority of the warm-up games before he proved his fitness against the Stormers. He was robust defensively, but it was a low-key return, with little of his attacking repertoire on show. His selection is based on his season-long excellence, rather than his recent form.

11. Duhan van der Merwe

Why’s he been picked? Firstly, look at the size of him. He’s 6ft 4in and nearly 17st, a carbon copy physically to George North, and we know what damage he did in 2013. According to rugby statistician Russ Petty, the big South African, has carried for 463m over four games, beaten the most defenders (29) and scored five tries. This, as Warren Gatland was at pains to point out, was on top of being the top try scorer in the Six Nations. Van der Merwe has shown footwork, raw power and top-end speed to pull away from defenders. From a crowded pack, he has emerged as a genuine bolter in his first season of Test rugby.

Risk factor 4

There has been disquiet in certain quarters over van der Merwe’s suitability for the aerial onslaught the Springboks are about to throw his way. He is not viewed as an elite airborne defender and despite his bulk, he has also been shown as fallible defensively, both by getting caught narrow on the defensive edge and in the broken field. One final aspect is the fact he maybe targeted by his countrymen who will be sure to inform him why he’s playing for Scotland and not his country of birth. He knows what’s coming.

10. Dan Biggar

Why’s he been picked? Dan Biggar was the only member of Wales’ Six Nations winning squad in 2013 not to tour with the Lions. This sleight will no doubt have hurt him. In 2017, he performed commendably but could not break the Owen Farrell and Johnny Sexton axis. He set a goal of not only making the Lions squad but making the Test team for 2021 and his selection is on merit. Outstanding for Wales during their title-winning Six Nations campaign, especially against France, his bravery in the air, defensive resolve, game management and ability to distribute to the wide channels – something he has improved working with Northampton’s Chris Boyd – have all led to Warren Gatland saying he was the outstanding candidate for the key 10 role. He seems perfectly suited to facing Handre Pollard.

Dan Biggar
Dan Biggar’s prowess in the air could be vital against the Springboks (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Risk factor 2

As a hugely competitive animal, Biggar has been known to let his emotions get the better of him on the pitch, when the game isn’t being bent to his will. It is something, he admits, he will have to manage. While he has improved his distribution, he has been stereotyped as a fly-half lacking the air of unpredictability that Finn Russell can bring to the game.

9. Ali Price

Why’s he been picked? Scrum-half has been highlighted as a problem position for a good while, with no stand-out performer leading up to the tour. Price has seized his opportunity with his sharp service and tempo he brings to the game, and he has profited with Conor Murray looking ponderous and Gareth Davies being error-ridden in his few outings. His selection is another filed under form and not reputation.

Risk factor 4

Price will face one of the sternest challenges of his career coming up against the irrepressible Faf de Klerk who brings line-speed, aggression and a brilliant box-kicking game to the Springboks. If Price can live with the Sale Shark he will keep the shirt but he will have to play the perfect game. He has missed more tackles than his competitors for the 9 jersey and has been prone to the odd lapse in concentration which saw calls for Scott Steele to replace him at the recent Six Nations. Timing is everything, and Price has the opportunity of a lifetime.

8. Jack Conan

The Leinster and Ireland No 8 is another who has timed his run to the Test starting team to perfection. Caelan Doris was expected to fill the No 8 berth during the Six Nations, so CJ Stander packed down there and Conan managing one start for Ireland against England in the final game, where he scored before half-time. A month later, he was again over the whitewash against Exeter and with Billy Vunipola out-of-form, found himself in the Lions squad. Conan has nudged ahead of Taulupe Faletau and Sam Simmonds with a series of composed displays, where his athleticism, aplomb at the back of the lineout, and explosivity at the back of the scrum has seen him pick up Jamie Heaslip’s jersey from the 2013 tour.

Risk factor 3

Conan has been a slow-burn on the Test stage. He turns 29 next week but has only made 13 starts for Ireland. Detractors will say a lack of experience on the highest stage could count against him, but remember he has won a Grand Slam, Pro14s and a Champions Cup in 2018. He will know the spectre of Faletau will loom large over him if he doesn’t deliver.

7. Tom Curry

Why’s he been picked? At just 23, Tom Curry is already seen as one of the world’s best opensides, but he has had to raise his game to yet higher levels to stave off the challenge of Hamish Watson. Curry is physically powerful enough to play anywhere across the back row and his ball-carrying has been noticeable during the tour, where he has found himself with turf in front of him. The Sale Sharks man is also strong over the ball, powerful in the tackle and has improving ball-skills. On paper, he appears perfectly equipped to undergo the onslaught from the Springbok behemoths.

Tom Curry
Tom Curry has edged Hamish Watson in the race for the No 7 jersey with his power-packed style of play (Photo by MB Media/Getty Images)
Risk factor 2

Curry would admit he is not the finished article. There are subtleties that need refining. For example, there are times when he chooses to commit to the breakdown and gives away penalties, or he gets caught in possession and gets isolated, but these are minor points. If he can maintain his fitness, he is on the way to being an England great.

6. Courtney Lawes

Why he’s been picked? The most overused word in elite rugby is ‘physicality’, but it’s something Lawes has in spades. The Northampton Saint has had to modify his tackling technique somewhat in the current climate, but he is still effective in folding ball-carriers in two. One area Lawes has improved is his ball-carrying. He now regularly hits gaps around the fringes and has improved his offloading game. It is no co-incidence England had such a poor Six Nations campaign without the 86-cap back five player. Lawes will contest with the fellow 6ft 7in blindside Pieter Steph-Du-Toit for aerial supremacy at the back of the lineout and roam the broken-field looking for win the contact area.

Risk factor 3

Lawes was the last Lion to get picked after proving his fitness so late in the season. For so long, Tadhg Beirne was the critics choice to fill the No 6 shirt, for his prowess at the breakdown and ball-handling skills but Gatland has plumped for Lawes because of his experience and marginally more effective carrying game into contact. Lawes must be extra careful with his defensive game and try to avoid giving away penalties.

5. Alun Wyn Jones

Why’s he been picked? Rugby fans don’t agree on much, but there will be little dissent if Alun Wyn Jones is proclaimed a modern great. There was little hope of completing a fourth tour against Japan after coming off injured in the 7th minute but lady luck was looking down on Jones and he proved his fitness against the Stormers with a typically busy 27 minutes off the bench. Jones, who will turn 36 in September, has been written-off countless times but revels in proving his detractors wrong. His leadership is irreplaceable in camp and his competitive zeal, soft hands and adroit handling at the set-piece mark him out as player who is universally respected.

Risk factor 3

The big question mark over Jones is the shoulder he dislocated 25 days ago. He will undoubtedly be targeted by the Springbok heavy mob, so there will be nervousness in the early encounters. Whether he’s as effective in close-quarter combat as he once was is a moot-point but he still tops the tackle and workrate charts to show his continuing durability.

4. Maro Itoje

Why’s he been picked? A bright young thing in 2017 out in New Zealand, you suspect Itoje has been earmarked for Test selection for some time. He has been used sparingly on this Lions tour, only playing 162 minutes, the least of any lock, bar the injured Alun Wyn Jones. When he has played, he has shown his quality. Against South Africa A, he was his usual self, spoiling mauls, getting his long-levers onto the ball around the breakdown and contesting the contact area with gusto. His athletic physique means he could have played several sports at a high-level but the Lions will be happy he plumped for rugby. A key man for Gatland in the engine room. He will set the tone and try to disrupt the Springbok scrum.

Risk factor 1

Itoje will play his 52nd Test on the weekend at just 26 and he is maturing as a player but his combative, disruptive playing style leads to his often incurring the wrath of the referee, as he did against Wales in the Six Nations. He will need to tread a tightrope to stay on the wrong side of Nic Berry.

3. Tadhg Furlong

Why he’s been picked? Furlong, like Watson and Itoje, would have been pencilled in as automatic picks before the tour started. Like Watson, Furlong had to overcome a year-long period out of the game with a calf-injury before returning in the Six Nations. With his Phil Bennett impression against Scotland, he showed the all-court game he possesses away from the set-piece, and despite his near 20st piano shifter frame, he has pianist’s hands for the odd drag-back pass or pop-pass into space. The likeable tighthead from New Ross RFC will be expected to lock down the Lions scrum, which will be no mean feat when Frans Malherbe and Steven Kitshoff rumble on after the break. One player the Lions can ill-afford to lose to injury.

Tadhg Furlong
Ireland tighthead Tadhg Furlong goes on the burst against the Stormers (Photo by Ashley Vlotman/Gallo Images/Getty Images)
Risk factor 1

Furlong has few obvious weaknesses. Okay, he may not boast Kyle Sinckler’s running lines or be expected to steam in from halfway like Taniela Tupou but he has a sharp rugby brain and is someone the Lions would follow into the cauldron.

2. Luke Cowan-Dickie

Why he’s been picked? Cowan-Dickie managed to wrestle the No 2 shirt off Jamie George during the Six Nations and yet when the squad was picked, most commentators were still placing him behind the hugely experience Ken Owen and George for a starting spot. The Exeter Chief has been nothing short of a force of nature during the tour with his chop tackling proving effective as the Lions have protected their line and his ball-carrying around the fringes giving his side the all-important gainline dominance. A peel and breakaway for a one-handed score seemed to nail down his starting spot as the form hooker.

Risk factor 3

Cowan-Dickie had a well-documented concussion during the Premiership Final and the speed at which he was passed fit to fly and participate in the warm-up games caused some controversy. Cowan-Dickie will have to be very careful with his torpedo tackle to wrap his arm around the ball-carrier, otherwise risk a card. His tussle with Bongi Mbonambi should be titantic.

Wyn Jones
Why’s he been picked? In truth, there was not much to pick between the three looseheads, who all had their points of difference but it was Jones’ scrummaging ability which has seen him given the nod. A farmer from mid-Wales, the Scarlet has come through late. Indeed, the 29-year-old was making his debut for Wales four years ago when Mako Vunipola was packing down at No 1 on his second tour. Jones considers himself a diesel engine who can dig in when the going gets tough and he will need that durability at the weekend. He is also one of the Lions’ most competitive forwards over the ball.

Risk factor 3

Mako Vunipola has a stronger handling game than Jones, and Rory Sutherland covers the turf quicker but the Scarlet will keep on trundling until he drops.

by **George Carlin** Thu 22 Jul 2021, 12:03 pm

So the top try scorer in the 6Ns and statistically one of the strongest attackers on this tour is more of a risk than a 35 year old lock with a shoulder he dislocated a fortnight ago? Headscratch

by Oakdene Thu 22 Jul 2021, 12:14 pm

George Carlin wrote:So the top try scorer in the 6Ns and statistically one of the strongest attackers on this tour is more of a risk than a 35 year old lock with a shoulder he dislocated a fortnight ago?

I think it is risk in terms of the positions they play. VDM is incredible going forward, however concerns remain on his defence & how he manages under the high ball. The risk with AWJ is whether he is 100% otherwise you know what you're going to get from him.

by LordDowlais Thu 22 Jul 2021, 12:16 pm

George Carlin wrote:So the top try scorer in the 6Ns and statistically one of the strongest attackers on this tour is more of a risk than a 35 year old lock with a shoulder he dislocated a fortnight ago?

Why do you think AWJ is a big risk ?

He has been passed fit, he has come through numerous contact sessions, and he played in the last game where I didn't see him hold anything back.

I think we need to move on from this now. If he was a risk, the medical team would stop him from playing surely ? The fact that they haven't is an indictment that all is OK. thumbsup

by **BigGee** Thu 22 Jul 2021, 12:23 pm

LordDowlais wrote:
George Carlin wrote:So the top try scorer in the 6Ns and statistically one of the strongest attackers on this tour is more of a risk than a 35 year old lock with a shoulder he dislocated a fortnight ago?

Why do you think AWJ is a big risk ?

He has been passed fit, he has come through numerous contact sessions, and he played in the last game where I didn't see him hold anything back.

I think we need to move on from this now. If he was a risk, the medical team would stop him from playing surely ? The fact that they haven't is an indictment that all is OK.

Nothing is risk free and as the article points out, there is a risk factor involved with every pick.

It is just his opinion at the end of the day. I actually thought it was a pretty balanced article.

by TJ Thu 22 Jul 2021, 12:25 pm

Oakdene wrote:

I think it is risk in terms of the positions they play. VDM is incredible going forward, however concerns remain on his defence & how he manages under the high ball. The risk with AWJ is whether he is 100% otherwise you know what you're going to get from him.

Unwarranted concerns based on one huge blunder in the 6n where had had been left exposed by the defense inside

He is fine under a high ball and has a better tackle made to tackle missed ratio than any of the other back 3 players available. He missed 1 in 4 tackles in the 6N. A Watson 1 in 2 ( from a similar number attempted)

by LordDowlais Thu 22 Jul 2021, 12:30 pm

I do not think VDM is any more of a risk than Watson IMO, or Hogg.

by mikey_dragon Thu 22 Jul 2021, 12:31 pm

I've seen VDM beaten in defence a few times actually. That said, he deserves his place because what he can do outweighs the negatives by far. He's been compared to North (and in the early days we said the same about his defence) but I can never remember George being his hungry and showing up in midfield to get the ball this often, but the move to 13 has worked out well.

by takethelongroad Thu 22 Jul 2021, 12:31 pm

Interestingly on a pod cast one of the lions s&c team was asked about AWJ recovery and the way the answer was phrased suggested to me that his shoulder is at a high risk of trouble and that his age and test seniority (and unspoken likely retirement after this) meant that they are managing the risk differently for him in this instance. In other words they seems to be saying he wants to play, it’s his shoulder and he wants a cap record, let him do it as he is old and career almost completed already. Wouldn’t be my advice.

by LordDowlais Thu 22 Jul 2021, 12:32 pm

BigGee wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:
George Carlin wrote:So the top try scorer in the 6Ns and statistically one of the strongest attackers on this tour is more of a risk than a 35 year old lock with a shoulder he dislocated a fortnight ago?

Why do you think AWJ is a big risk ?

He has been passed fit, he has come through numerous contact sessions, and he played in the last game where I didn't see him hold anything back.

I think we need to move on from this now. If he was a risk, the medical team would stop him from playing surely ? The fact that they haven't is an indictment that all is OK.

Nothing is risk free and as the article points out, there is a risk factor involved with every pick.

It is just his opinion at the end of the day. I actually thought it was a pretty balanced article.

I never said it wasn't unbalanced or that there was anything wrong with it. I just thought I would ask the question. I gave my reasons as well, for good measure.

by No 7&1/2 Thu 22 Jul 2021, 12:32 pm

TJ wrote:
Oakdene wrote:

I think it is risk in terms of the positions they play. VDM is incredible going forward, however concerns remain on his defence & how he manages under the high ball. The risk with AWJ is whether he is 100% otherwise you know what you're going to get from him.

Unwarranted concerns based on one huge blunder in the 6n where had had been left exposed by the defense inside

He is fine under a high ball and has a better tackle made to tackle missed ratio than any of the other back 3 players available. He missed 1 in 4 tackles in the 6N. A Watson 1 in 2 ( from a similar number attempted)

We'll see how he gets on with Daly this weekend. I'll be watching through my fingers I fear.

In regards to Jones of course he's an increased risk and just because he's in the starting line doesn't mean he's suddenly not. I remember Boro patching up Ravenelli and sending him out to the FA Cup final; he lasted 24 mins.

by **BigGee** Thu 22 Jul 2021, 12:38 pm

No 7&1/2 wrote:
TJ wrote:
Oakdene wrote:

I think it is risk in terms of the positions they play. VDM is incredible going forward, however concerns remain on his defence & how he manages under the high ball. The risk with AWJ is whether he is 100% otherwise you know what you're going to get from him.

Unwarranted concerns based on one huge blunder in the 6n where had had been left exposed by the defense inside

He is fine under a high ball and has a better tackle made to tackle missed ratio than any of the other back 3 players available. He missed 1 in 4 tackles in the 6N. A Watson 1 in 2 ( from a similar number attempted)

We'll see how he gets on with Daly this weekend. I'll be watching through my fingers I fear.

I think that is more of the issue, two outside backs with slight question marks about their defence.

The coaches have rolled the dice here no doubt. Harris and Adams would have been the safer, if maybe slightly less productive option. I have no problem with them picking a team that they want to go out and win the game though. I guess we will know on saturday evening whether they have made the right call.

by Soul Requiem Thu 22 Jul 2021, 12:43 pm

Seems to be a fair article to me.

Itoje, Furlong, Biggar, Henshaw and Curry were always going to be in the test side so stands to reason that they're considered to bring the least risk to the side. The appraisal of Duhan seems fair and the statistics aren't going to change what i've seen. I do however feel that Hogg is hard done by a bit though, he very rarely makes a clanger under the high, varying between a 7-9 rating; Williams has days when he's rock solid under the high ball and others when he's shall we not so solid, varying between a 4-10.

by **George Carlin** Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:11 pm

LordDowlais wrote:
George Carlin wrote:So the top try scorer in the 6Ns and statistically one of the strongest attackers on this tour is more of a risk than a 35 year old lock with a shoulder he dislocated a fortnight ago?

Why do you think AWJ is a big risk ?

He has been passed fit, he has come through numerous contact sessions, and he played in the last game where I didn't see him hold anything back.

I think we need to move on from this now. If he was a risk, the medical team would stop him from playing surely ? The fact that they haven't is an indictment that all is OK.

No, my point is that neither is a 'big risk'. And in comparison to what?

by lostinwales Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:14 pm

I'd say putting AWJ on the wing would be high risk though

by flyhalffactory Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:19 pm

No 7&1/2 wrote:Nice article from XV Rugby by Owain Jones.

Sometimes you have to wonder do these tabloid pundits ever actually watch rugby on a regular basis or do they pander to the herd mentality, typical lazy journalism, you can see where this guy is going.

Lots that made me smile who have the lowest risk factors, so I thought I'd dig deeper, here's a couple of examples
A Watson - Risk factor 1
So just a quick comparison with Adams (lets forget about the tries scored as we don't to skew it)
Turnovers Won/Lost
AW 1/4, JA 2/5 pretty much on par

Tackle % made/missed
AW 5/2 71.4%, JA 9/4 69.2% pretty much par

Gain-line Success % (Carries successful/unsuccessful)
AW 9/7 56.3%, JA 19/7 73.1% - Now that is a massive worry

You can see the inherent risk here

Itoje - Risk factor - 1
Let's compare to Beard

Mins on the park - MI 166 mins, AB 168
Turnovers % Won / Lost
MI 1/2 33%, AB 2/1 67% - pretty much on par
Tackles Made / Missed
MI 25/3 89.3%, AB 25/2 92.6% - pretty much on par
Gain-Line Success % (Carries Won / Lost)
MI 12/7 63.2%, AB 6/0 100% - As I mentioned a few days ago, the breakdown, the loose is a massive concern
Carries - metres made per carry
MI - 3.17, AB - 3.0

There are a few more illuminating comparisons, but this is a classic on Curry "there are subtleties that need refining. For example, there are times when he chooses to commit to the breakdown and gives away penalties, or he gets caught in possession and gets isolated, but these are minor points."
Strewth that beggars belief, it's massive risk which has resulted in TOs and pens, it's one we hope Gats & Tandy bl00dy drill out of him before the 1st test

Basically the guy needs to watch a bit of rugby and then analyse it properly not cherry pick "perceptions" for the benefit of the herd

by Soul Requiem Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:24 pm

Watson, Curry and Itoje have all been selected by Gatland who i'm assuming is seeing something in training or even the matches beyond just looking at numbers on a computer screen. Oh I see actually.

by flyhalffactory Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:31 pm

Soul Requiem wrote:Watson, Curry and Itoje have all been selected by Gatland who i'm assuming is seeing something in training or even the matches beyond just looking at numbers on a computer screen. Oh I see actually.

Well of course Captain Obvious
But we are not talking about Gats & Co, we are talking about a tabloid hack not analysing, just cherry picking to pander to the masses.
My counter is that Watson, Itoje and Curry not almost risk free, in fact based on the SA A first 40 mins there are massive risks inherent with their 2021 form

by LordDowlais Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:36 pm

George Carlin wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:
George Carlin wrote:So the top try scorer in the 6Ns and statistically one of the strongest attackers on this tour is more of a risk than a 35 year old lock with a shoulder he dislocated a fortnight ago?

Why do you think AWJ is a big risk ?

He has been passed fit, he has come through numerous contact sessions, and he played in the last game where I didn't see him hold anything back.

I think we need to move on from this now. If he was a risk, the medical team would stop him from playing surely ? The fact that they haven't is an indictment that all is OK.
No, my point is that neither is a 'big risk'. And in comparison to what?

In comparison to any other player.

I'm happy DVM is in the team, he's a good player.

by TJ Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:39 pm

Curry and trying too hard leading to penalties really does worry me. Mish has learnt when to go in and when not to. It took him a few years. Mish used to give away too many penalties. He doesn't now. Mish gave away NO penalties in the six nations Curray gave away 6 According to the stats Curry only got one turnover ( doesn't seem right to me) and Mish 6.

Now I hope curry has a stormer but I worry that in the team selected he will try too hard to go for turnovers and give away penalties

by Soul Requiem Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:42 pm

flyhalffactory wrote:
Soul Requiem wrote:Watson, Curry and Itoje have all been selected by Gatland who i'm assuming is seeing something in training or even the matches beyond just looking at numbers on a computer screen. Oh I see actually.

Well of course Captain Obvious
But we are not talking about Gats & Co, we are talking about a tabloid hack not analysing, just cherry picking to pander to the masses.
My counter is that Watson, Itoje and Curry not almost risk free, in fact based on the SA A first 40 mins there are massive risks inherent with their 2021 form

It's a good job you're not in charge then isn't it.

by No 7&1/2 Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:42 pm

The last game where Watson got plaudits he didn't trouble the breakdown at all. The England pack likes to play on that line and more often that not it works. Gatland and the coaches will dictate how much they push, or the amount of pressure we're under will. Watson will come off the bench I'm sure, I think it'll be sooner rather than later but I can see it being with Curry to rectify an imbalance with speed to the breakdown rather than for him.

by LordDowlais Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:42 pm

TBH guys, I'm not worried about anything for Saturday, it's a pretty decent team, the bench is a little underwhelming, and I would have picked different players in certain positions, but that's life.

All in all, I am looking forward to the game. Yahoo

by flyhalffactory Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:43 pm

mikey_dragon wrote:I've seen VDM beaten in defence a few times actually. That said, he deserves his place because what he can do outweighs the negatives by far. He's been compared to North (and in the early days we said the same about his defence) but I can never remember George being his hungry and showing up in midfield to get the ball this often, but the move to 13 has worked out well.

I have seen every rugby player beaten in defence a few times over the years, that doesn't mean anything, bit of meat on the bone, then we can discuss.

He had the best defensive stats in the 6Ns for a winger (he had one out-of-position blunder which if you listen to the proper rugby analysts (there are quite a few on social media), he was pulled into a drift 15:15 drift defence which was way too tight, left him exposed and he had no option to close in not stay out wide, a classic 15:15 drift needs the BRFs pulling back to cover the outside winger, which they didn't), he has carried that defensive form onto this tour

by No 7&1/2 Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:44 pm

LordDowlais wrote:
George Carlin wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:
George Carlin wrote:So the top try scorer in the 6Ns and statistically one of the strongest attackers on this tour is more of a risk than a 35 year old lock with a shoulder he dislocated a fortnight ago?

Why do you think AWJ is a big risk ?

He has been passed fit, he has come through numerous contact sessions, and he played in the last game where I didn't see him hold anything back.

I think we need to move on from this now. If he was a risk, the medical team would stop him from playing surely ? The fact that they haven't is an indictment that all is OK.
No, my point is that neither is a 'big risk'. And in comparison to what?

In comparison to any other player.

I'm happy DVM is in the team, he's a good player.

In comparison to any player who isn't 3 weeks post dislocation. This is not controversial.

by flyhalffactory Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:45 pm

Soul Requiem wrote:
flyhalffactory wrote:
Soul Requiem wrote:Watson, Curry and Itoje have all been selected by Gatland who i'm assuming is seeing something in training or even the matches beyond just looking at numbers on a computer screen. Oh I see actually.

Well of course Captain Obvious
But we are not talking about Gats & Co, we are talking about a tabloid hack not analysing, just cherry picking to pander to the masses.
My counter is that Watson, Itoje and Curry not almost risk free, in fact based on the SA A first 40 mins there are massive risks inherent with their 2021 form

It's a good job you're not in charge then isn't it.

Well done

by No 7&1/2 Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:46 pm

There'll be about 3 or 4 changes for the second test anyway. Some people will exceed expectations, some combos won't work and there's bound to be an injury.

by TJ Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:46 pm

No 7&1/2 wrote:The last game where Watson got plaudits he didn't trouble the breakdown at all. The England pack likes to play on that line and more often that not it works. Gatland and the coaches will dictate how much they push, or the amount of pressure we're under will. Watson will come off the bench I'm sure, I think it'll be sooner rather than later but I can see it being with Curry to rectify an imbalance with speed to the breakdown rather than for him.

I would have liked to see both start

Gatland has always put a lot of emphasis on the size of the players which is IMO why Curry got the nod. He is 10 kg heavier.

by lostinwales Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:47 pm

flyhalffactory wrote:
mikey_dragon wrote:I've seen VDM beaten in defence a few times actually. That said, he deserves his place because what he can do outweighs the negatives by far. He's been compared to North (and in the early days we said the same about his defence) but I can never remember George being his hungry and showing up in midfield to get the ball this often, but the move to 13 has worked out well.

I have seen every rugby player beaten in defence a few times over the years, that doesn't mean anything, bit of meat on the bone, then we can discuss.

He had the best defensive stats in the 6Ns for a winger (he had one out-of-position blunder which if you listen to the proper rugby analysts (there are quite a few on social media), he was pulled into a drift 15:15 drift defence which was way too tight, left him exposed and he had no option to close in not stay out wide, a classic 15:15 drift needs the BRFs pulling back to cover the outside winger, which they didn't), he has carried that defensive form onto this tour

DVDM's ability to scrag an opponent in range is good, the questions are over players who are not.

by Soul Requiem Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:49 pm

TJ wrote:
No 7&1/2 wrote:The last game where Watson got plaudits he didn't trouble the breakdown at all. The England pack likes to play on that line and more often that not it works. Gatland and the coaches will dictate how much they push, or the amount of pressure we're under will. Watson will come off the bench I'm sure, I think it'll be sooner rather than later but I can see it being with Curry to rectify an imbalance with speed to the breakdown rather than for him.

I would have liked to see both start

Gatland has always put a lot of emphasis on the size of the players which is IMO why Curry got the nod. He is 10 kg heavier.

I'd say the opposite is true of Gatland when it comes to openside, he has almost always favoured speed over size.

by No 7&1/2 Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:51 pm

TJ wrote:
No 7&1/2 wrote:The last game where Watson got plaudits he didn't trouble the breakdown at all. The England pack likes to play on that line and more often that not it works. Gatland and the coaches will dictate how much they push, or the amount of pressure we're under will. Watson will come off the bench I'm sure, I think it'll be sooner rather than later but I can see it being with Curry to rectify an imbalance with speed to the breakdown rather than for him.

I would have liked to see both start

Gatland has always put a lot of emphasis on the size of the players which is IMO why Curry got the nod. He is 10 kg heavier.

There's been no stand out 8 but I don't like Curry there, not strong enough come the scrum (France game is still haunting) and I'd start Beirne at 6. I think they'll get plenty of time together though.

by Collapse2005 Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:52 pm

At least everyone has had some good game time so far, except Kelleher. Id like him to get a run out at some point.

by No 7&1/2 Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:53 pm

Collapse2005 wrote:At least everyone has had some good game time so far, except Kelleher. Id like him to get a run out at some point.

Ahead of the 3 hookers who have all played well so far? Unless there's injuries he's not getting a sniff.

by Collapse2005 Thu 22 Jul 2021, 1:55 pm

Well it would be fairly pointless calling him up then wouldnt it?

He is a top player himself so if the series is already over after 2 tests Id say there is a good chance he will make the bench for the third.

by flyhalffactory Thu 22 Jul 2021, 2:02 pm

TJ wrote:
No 7&1/2 wrote:The last game where Watson got plaudits he didn't trouble the breakdown at all. The England pack likes to play on that line and more often that not it works. Gatland and the coaches will dictate how much they push, or the amount of pressure we're under will. Watson will come off the bench I'm sure, I think it'll be sooner rather than later but I can see it being with Curry to rectify an imbalance with speed to the breakdown rather than for him.

I would have liked to see both start

Gatland has always put a lot of emphasis on the size of the players which is IMO why Curry got the nod. He is 10 kg heavier.

7&1/2 mate
I think Curry at 23 is insanely talented, but the media frenzy to create another "English best in the world" has put him under undue pressure to match the hype, he's a changed player to the 2019 model, too much aggression, looking for the confrontation, tries too hard, seems like he believe he can take on 2-3 quality players, he's been found out a few times both in the 6Ns (6 pens and was it the same TOs) and on this tour (3 pens and 3 TOs). Like TJ said Watson was like that for Edinburgh and Scotland, sometimes it's they way you've been coached and when Cockers came in, he changed Hamish's style.

The reason I think Curry should be on the bench is that Watson is an out and out 7, he hasn't got the skillset to cover the BR, but Curry one of the few players talented enough to cover 6/7/8

by lostinwales Thu 22 Jul 2021, 2:07 pm

Collapse2005 wrote:Well it would be fairly pointless calling him up then wouldnt it?

He is a top player himself so if the series is already over after 2 tests Id say there is a good chance he will make the bench for the third.

“There’s no injuries with the three hookers out here, but we think it’s prudent to bring in cover in that position ahead of the Test series.”

He won't get a look in unless there are injuries. Nothing to do with how good he is. Same for Smith (the only difference being that there are injury issues at 10)

by lostinwales Thu 22 Jul 2021, 2:10 pm

flyhalffactory wrote:
TJ wrote:
No 7&1/2 wrote:The last game where Watson got plaudits he didn't trouble the breakdown at all. The England pack likes to play on that line and more often that not it works. Gatland and the coaches will dictate how much they push, or the amount of pressure we're under will. Watson will come off the bench I'm sure, I think it'll be sooner rather than later but I can see it being with Curry to rectify an imbalance with speed to the breakdown rather than for him.

I would have liked to see both start

Gatland has always put a lot of emphasis on the size of the players which is IMO why Curry got the nod. He is 10 kg heavier.

7&1/2 mate
I think Curry at 23 is insanely talented, but the media frenzy to create another "English best in the world" has put him under undue pressure to match the hype, he's a changed player to the 2019 model, too much aggression, looking for the confrontation, tries too hard, seems like he believe he can take on 2-3 quality players, he's been found out a few times both in the 6Ns (6 pens and was it the same TOs) and on this tour (3 pens and 3 TOs). Like TJ said Watson was like that for Edinburgh and Scotland, sometimes it's they way you've been coached and when Cockers came in, he changed Hamish's style.

The reason I think Curry should be on the bench is that Watson is an out and out 7, he hasn't got the skillset to cover the BR, but Curry one of the few players talented enough to cover 6/7/8

That isn't the Curry I see. He has filled out and is used much more as a carrier than he used to be, something at which he has improved a great deal. The rest is purely opinion.

by No 7&1/2 Thu 22 Jul 2021, 2:16 pm

Collapse2005 wrote:Well it would be fairly pointless calling him up then wouldnt it?

He is a top player himself so if the series is already over after 2 tests Id say there is a good chance he will make the bench for the third.

Gatland has praised the 3 hookers, and I'd agree they've all been really solid in the setpiece and looked handy round the pitch. Gatland did say '"There’s no injuries with the three hookers out here, but we think it’s prudent to bring in cover in that position ahead of the Test series.”

Earlier in the week Gatland said, "If we picked up an injury there, and then picked up an injury in training, they were concerned that possibly a game could go down to uncontested scrums."'

From those points I think he's there to cover injuries.

by No 7&1/2 Thu 22 Jul 2021, 2:18 pm

lostinwales wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:Well it would be fairly pointless calling him up then wouldnt it?

He is a top player himself so if the series is already over after 2 tests Id say there is a good chance he will make the bench for the third.

“There’s no injuries with the three hookers out here, but we think it’s prudent to bring in cover in that position ahead of the Test series.”

He won't get a look in unless there are injuries. Nothing to do with how good he is. Same for Smith (the only difference being that there are injury issues at 10)

I think SMith may have slightly more chance. If Biggar or Farrell have another off game and Russell still isn't fit it may be worth the risk in the coaches eyes.

by **George Carlin** Thu 22 Jul 2021, 2:46 pm

LordDowlais wrote:
George Carlin wrote:
LordDowlais wrote:
George Carlin wrote:So the top try scorer in the 6Ns and statistically one of the strongest attackers on this tour is more of a risk than a 35 year old lock with a shoulder he dislocated a fortnight ago?

Why do you think AWJ is a big risk ?

He has been passed fit, he has come through numerous contact sessions, and he played in the last game where I didn't see him hold anything back.

I think we need to move on from this now. If he was a risk, the medical team would stop him from playing surely ? The fact that they haven't is an indictment that all is OK.
No, my point is that neither is a 'big risk'. And in comparison to what?

In comparison to any other player.

I'm happy DVM is in the team, he's a good player.

If Gatland had chosen me at lock, for example, THAT would be a risk.

Not least because I'm a bit out of shape and not free on Saturday because my missus would lose her sh!t if I cancelled another barbecue with her friends.

by lostinwales Thu 22 Jul 2021, 3:05 pm

No 7&1/2 wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:Well it would be fairly pointless calling him up then wouldnt it?

He is a top player himself so if the series is already over after 2 tests Id say there is a good chance he will make the bench for the third.

“There’s no injuries with the three hookers out here, but we think it’s prudent to bring in cover in that position ahead of the Test series.”

He won't get a look in unless there are injuries. Nothing to do with how good he is. Same for Smith (the only difference being that there are injury issues at 10)

I think SMith may have slightly more chance. If Biggar or Farrell have another off game and Russell still isn't fit it may be worth the risk in the coaches eyes.

I agree. If Farrell's shoulder is a real issue and if Finn's Achilies fails he's close

by Collapse2005 Thu 22 Jul 2021, 3:20 pm

No 7&1/2 wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:Well it would be fairly pointless calling him up then wouldnt it?

He is a top player himself so if the series is already over after 2 tests Id say there is a good chance he will make the bench for the third.

Gatland has praised the 3 hookers, and I'd agree they've all been really solid in the setpiece and looked handy round the pitch. Gatland did say '"There’s no injuries with the three hookers out here, but we think it’s prudent to bring in cover in that position ahead of the Test series.”

Earlier in the week Gatland said, "If we picked up an injury there, and then picked up an injury in training, they were concerned that possibly a game could go down to uncontested scrums."'

From those points I think he's there to cover injuries.

It think he is too but if the series is over it would be harsh not to give him some game time.

I wouldnt expect him to be selected if its 1 all going into the third test unless there are injuries.

For me he has a better chance of getting selected that Smith because he is a more experienced player and hooker while a key position isnt as critical as out half. Smith I dont think has played with anyone in the Lions squad and has almost zero international experience whereas Kelleher has already played a fair bit of rugby at both international and European level with Beirne, Furlong, Henderson, Conan etc. He was throwing (as sub) to Henderson, Conan and Beirne in the six nations and our lineout was a strength.

by sensisball Thu 22 Jul 2021, 4:00 pm

It was interesting watching Curry in the Sale pack that was pretty comprehensively overpowered by the La Rochele 8 in the champions cup QF. La Rochele have a monstrous pack (Skelton, Atonio, Alldritt, Vito etc.). Unfortunately even with their Saffer contingent of the Du Preez brothers, DVDM's brother at hooker and Weise in the row they were still pretty much blown away. Curry didn't make any appreciable difference to the pasting they took up front and i think gave away a couple of penalties at breakdown, so I do think the rep the media is building for him as having the potential to be the best English backrow forward ever is a bit premature. Do I think in a few years time that he will be viewed as a better player than Hill or Dallaglio? I'm not so sure.
Yes, he is a great player but as good as his 1997 Lions tour predecessors?
Not yet and by a long way.

by Collapse2005 Thu 22 Jul 2021, 4:02 pm

I do think Curry is England's best flanker in a long time.

La Rochelle also proved too physical for Leinster who are a pretty formidable side too.

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