Autumn 2021 Tournaments

First topic message reminder :

After what could be described as a sensational USO, we move into the autumn tournaments that will round off the 2021 season.

The big tournament coming up is Indian Wells which has been moved from its usual March spot to early October.

But there are tourneys before then, including Metz in France where this week Andy Murray takes on Humbert. Andy really needs some wins but at least he's playing and seems injury free.

The lady of the hour, Emma R, may play IW although her schedule is still uncertain. The Romanians are trying to get her over for a tournament in Bucharest, too.

We have two new GS champs, which is something that has happened for a while. It's possible we could have a new men's number one, as well, in the months to come.

Soul Requiem wrote:You're missing the point again Craig. At no point in Norrie's career would he be expected to beat Ruud but Murray before the hip injury would have done, it's not rocket science.

Hmm okay so Norrie is ranked inside the top thirty and would never be expected to beat Rudd? What does that say about a perfectly fit Norrie compared to a one hip Murray who is still expected to beat a world No 10 when on the comeback trail? The fact it is being painted as an upset actually says that those making that expectation level still believe Murray is still well worth carrying on playing.

IW men's draw is now out and Andy M gets Mannarino in first round. Should he progress, Andy meets rising-star Alcaraz in round two.

As seeded players, Evans and Norrie get first-round byes. Dan could meet Nishi in round two.

Emma R has been speaking about her whirlwind month which has seen her crowned USO champ and attending fashion shows and Bond premieres.

At IW she'll be working with Jeremy Bates. She says she's in no hurry to pick a regular coach.

Watson beaten by Stephens in the first round. Not really surprising, since Heather's having a poor season.

In the second round Emma R will play Sasnovich who won her first-round match easily.

Andy M has had a loss already.....of his wedding ring. To cut a long story short, the ring was attached to his tennis shoes which have been stolen.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:You're missing the point again Craig. At no point in Norrie's career would he be expected to beat Ruud but Murray before the hip injury would have done, it's not rocket science.

Hmm okay so Norrie is ranked inside the top thirty and would never be expected to beat Rudd? What does that say about a perfectly fit Norrie compared to a one hip Murray who is still expected to beat a world No 10 when on the comeback trail? The fact it is being painted as an upset actually says that those making that expectation level still believe Murray is still well worth carrying on playing.

You're still not reading the posts so this will be the last time I bother conversing with you. Norrie has never been expected to beat top ten players, once upon a time Murray was but no longer is. Ruud beating Murrag wasn't an upset, it was expected.

Soul Requiem wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:You're missing the point again Craig. At no point in Norrie's career would he be expected to beat Ruud but Murray before the hip injury would have done, it's not rocket science.

Hmm okay so Norrie is ranked inside the top thirty and would never be expected to beat Rudd? What does that say about a perfectly fit Norrie compared to a one hip Murray who is still expected to beat a world No 10 when on the comeback trail? The fact it is being painted as an upset actually says that those making that expectation level still believe Murray is still well worth carrying on playing.

You're still not reading the posts so this will be the last time I bother conversing with you. Norrie has never been expected to beat top ten players, once upon a time Murray was but no longer is. Ruud beating Murrag wasn't an upset, it was expected.

Yes and you are totally missing my point. Norrie is inside the World top 30 and got blown away by Rudd winning just two games. That is an indictment of the form Ruud is in. He is on course to be in the World Tour Finals such has been his form this year. Murray lost against that in form top ten player narrowly in two sets. Even in his prime Murray did get beaten by top ten players as did Federer, Djokovic and Nadal. Murray's last two defeats have come against Ruud and Hurkacz both of whom went on to win the tournament.

Emma R and Andy Murray both in action tonight in IW. I think we must expect some mixed results from Emma.

It's really a question of how she handles the defeats that are bound to come at some stage. Despite being a GS champ, she is very inexperienced and now, of course, everyone will want to beat her.

But she comes over as the sort of person who, like Barty, can cope with triumph and disaster alike. Let's hope so.

Andy has a victory already, in that his shoes and, more importantly, his wedding ring have, amazingly, turned up. I wonder if the security guys had spotted them and had them in safe keeping anyway.

Emma loses her first match back . Not too shocked. Rusty , according to reports. As Sir Fred says , how she handles the downs will be the more important factor going forward.

Andy M a good win first up : Hope he hung on to his shoes after ...

I thought this first match back, amid the inevitable hype and expectation, would be really tough and so it proved.

Encouragingly, and expectedly, Emma spoke much sense afterwards, saying defeat was probably a good thing as she would learn from it, that she was still inexperienced and it was now back to the drawing board.

You will have seen that she has put herself down for a number of tournaments, so may have sensed that there could be early exit along the way which would give her time to play the next event.

It must also be said that this was practically the first time she'd been the higher-ranked player in a main tournament so was no longer the nothing-to-lose underdog.

I see Fernandez, whose amazing run in New York has almost been forgotten amid the Emma euphoria, had a good straight-sets win over experienced and feisty Cornet.

Good win also by "ring-back" Andy M, who generally has little trouble with Frenchmen. Next up, though, is rising star Alcaraz. (I'm just waiting for a newspaper typo which calls him Alcatraz).

I thought Emma Raducanu had a very good chance of losing her first match in this tournament based on her limited experience. She made her WTA debut in June of this year and since then has played only three WTA tournaments (non-challenger) including India Wells and has yet to win a match. She has played in two grand slam tournaments reached the fourth round at Wimbledon before retiring and then won the US Open starting out as a qualifier. She just lacks experience of traveling, preparing, different court conditions (altitude, wind, temperature, surface, ball speed through air, court surroundings) different opponents and playing styles. Along with that she has a new temporary coach / guide. On top of that opponent coaches have maybe now analyzed her play and developed approaches to target any weaknesses they may have found in her game. Her opponent Sasnovich is a very experienced player of the tour (Challenger, WTA singles & doubles) played aggressively and targeted Raducanu's second serve.

Norrie and Evans in action tonight in IW alongside four GS female champs.

Dan had Nishi while Cameron takes on Sandgren.

Reading thru all the post-match comments from our Emma it seems she almost welcomed the defeat in that it showed how much she still has to learn about competing on the tour.

They say you learn more from your defeats than your victories. Certainly seems the case here.

Looks like the lost property/security guys found Murray's shoes and ring and then appeared to keep rather quiet about it until pressed. All's well than ends well, though.

Evans and Norrie both taken to three sets last night but both came thru.

Evans had a 2hr 47min battle with Nishi while Norrie dropped the middle set to Sandgren but took the last 6-0.

Showing how competitive it is in the women's game, three GS champs were taken to three sets before winning, while a fourth - Muguruza - was beaten.

No surprises in the men's although Schwartzman, Evans's next opponent, had a tough match against a qualifier.

Tonight Andy M plays Alcaraz, with the winner due to meet either Zverev or fast-rising 20-yr-old American Jenson Brooksby.

It has been mentioned that women's tennis has become more attacking and aggressive than the men's game. Would anyone agree or dispute that claim?

I don't watch much women's tennis really but I do sort of see it that way, which I think is because they tend to hit flatter than the men, who now generally hit with tons of topspin. Heavy topspin shots generally move through the air slower, but accelerate when they hit the surface. This might make the men's baseline rallies appear slower-paced than the ladies?

Although a lot of the women are still very big hitters, I think a bit more subtlety has come into the women's game.

There appears to be more slicing, more drop shots and more net play. Barty, for example, has a big serve but also deploys a lot of slice-and-dice.

It might be argued that there is a lot more net play in the men's game, too. I still think it's good that power alone, with guys nearer 7ft than 6ft banging down unreturnable serves, will only get you so far.

The Andersons, Isners, Opelkas, Karlovics (still on court at age 42) etc. have all got reasonably highly ranked without really becoming longstanding forces in the game. The most talented players have the skill to overcome the ace merchants.

Depends what you mean by more aggressive. It’s easier to hit groundstroke winners because the serve is less dominant (so aggressive second serve returns are the norm), the ball is being hit with less spin (so is easier to time) and the court coverage is not as strong. I’d say the actual “mindset” is pretty similar across both tours.

If you watch them both live, the speed of a men’s match is very clearly substantially faster than an equivalent women’s match.

This feels a fairly standard late career Murray match against a quality player. He’s right there but he just throws in poor points just when he needs to be rock solid.

I hear that nowadays women tennis players overwhelmingly train with a male hitting partner.

Born Slippy wrote:This feels a fairly standard late career Murray match against a quality player. He’s right there but he just throws in poor points just when he needs to be rock solid.

Murray battling on. Lost a first set he maybe should have won against Alcarez. He fought back to win the second set 6-3 and has broken early in the third to lead 2-0.

The big problem is his ranking. It is so low he is ending up facing highly seeded players early doors. He has put up competitive showings against the likes of Ruud and Hurkacz before losing and his ranking goes nowhere. Tonight even if he were to win his reward is a match against Alex Zverev. That is a result of his low ranking.

Murray beats Alcarez 5-7 6-3 6-2 to pregress into the Third Round at Indian Wells where he is likely to play Alex Zverev.

The match ran for just over three hours. It is another win towards the landmark 700 match wins in his career. It is a win that will encourage him.

Superb win for Andy - still tough to beat even at this stage of his career. He needs a few tight wins like this over quality opponents and the confidence will start to come back. It doesn’t feel as though he’s not that far away from top 20 level.

Zverev next, who looks to have produced a fairly stellar final set after a couple of close sets against Brooksby.

I thought maybe Andy might have a good chance against Alcaraz who, despite some excellent results, is still young and inexperienced.

It's going to be very, very tough for Andy to beat Zverev, though.

I see that Andy chucked in an underarm serve early in the second set. He said it was getting nowhere trying to hit huge serves and Alcaraz was standing very deep.

I know Rafa, for one, was none too happy when Kyrgios did an underarm against him. I think it's OK to do, but some might deem it unsporting.

Emma R's conqueror Sasnovich put out Halep in straight sets but now has to meet Azarenka, her third successive GS champion opponent.

US runner-up Fernandez came from a set down and a break down to oust Pavlyuchenkova.

Rarely a day goes by without a meeting of Slam champs in the women's. Yesterday it was Azarenka v Kvitova and today it's Swiatek v Ostapenko, who after some lean times is having a much better season.

Evans beaten but Norrie went thru.

Dan was a set and 4-2 up v Schwartzman but didn't win another game from then on.

Cameron had a good win over Bautista Agut. He broke twice in the third set to advance. At the beginning of the year Norrie was quite prepared to put pressure on himself by declaring this was going to be a really good year for him.

Well he's certainly done well, possibly even better than he could have imagined.

I still don't think he's right out of the top drawer but he's had some excellent results.

sirfredperry wrote:Evans beaten but Norrie went thru.

Dan was a set and 4-2 up v Schwartzman but didn't win another game from then on.

Cameron had a good win over Bautista Agut. He broke twice in the third set to advance. At the beginning of the year Norrie was quite prepared to put pressure on himself by declaring this was going to be a really good year for him.

Well he's certainly done well, possibly even better than he could have imagined.

I still don't think he's right out of the top drawer but he's had some excellent results.

Dan let a win slip through his fingers whereas Cameron Norrie wrenched a win into his grasp from a losing position. It is a win that consolidates his rise up the rankings and he must aim big and see this as a chance to go really deep into a Masters tournament.

Andy was a break up in both sets before Zverev rallied for the win.
Andy can't seem to get that big win to really get himself going again. At least he's playing every week and having some wins. But no doubt he's frustrated.

How does Andy Murray's on court movement and service action compare between June 2016 and post replacement hip - is he now slower and is his service action more restricted?

Either thru absence or defeat, none of the top 13 ranked women have made the quarters in IW.

Depending on your point of view, this suggests either that the women's game has strength in depth or the standard is poor and no one is good enough to dominate.

Certainly it seems that almost anyone can beat anyone. Indeed it might be argued that almost anyone can win a Slam at the moment.

Norrie made it thru to the q-f in IW with a three-set win over Tommy Paul but Dimi upset Medvedev.

The Russian was a set and double break up before Dimi embarked on a spectacular comeback. We all know that Dimi can really play if he puts his mind to it. Medvedev said afterwards that the Bulgarian was just too good.

Another good comeback was achieved by Ostapenko who won from being down 1-3, 0-40 in the final set against Rogers.

Tsitsipas and Zverev both won as did Schwartzman who now takes on Norrie.1950 Wimbledon champion Budge Patty has died aged 97. Remarkably he was not the oldest Wimbledon champ in terms of date of title, for the 1948 Wimbledon winner Bob Falkenburg is still going strong aged 95. (nor the oldest former Champion. see below*)

Falkenberg was the last man to save MPs in a Wimbledon final until Djoko did it against Federer in 2019. The unlucky guy in 1948 was Australian John Bromwich who was playing in front of Bradman and the touring Australian cricket team.

The 1951, 1952 and 1953 Wimbledon winners - Dick Savitt (94), Frank Sedgman (93) and Vic Seixas (98*) are all happily still with us. Hardy lot those old champions.

Norrie dropped just two games in a comprehensive win over Schwartzman to make the semis. This is his best-ever tournament.

Don't know if there was anything wrong with Schw, who only managed 28 points in 14 games.

Cameron now plays the winner of the Dimi-Hurkacz match.

Norrie will now take over from Dan Evans as the British number one.

Dimi came thru another tough three-setter and will play Cameron who may, at least, be the fresher of the two.

Dimi has had a strange career. He's capable of terrific tennis at times but has endured some inexplicable early losses in too many tournaments.

He's had the talent to be a permanent member of the top ten but has too often languished down the rankings. Perhaps, having turned 30 this year, he's realised that he's got fewer on-tour years ahead than behind.

Meanwhile, Emma R has pulled out of her planned trip to Moscow. Feel sure she will want to play in Romania, though.

So:

Norrie v Dimitrov
Basilashvili v Fritz

A fairly unusual looking Masters SF line up. Dimitrov has one previous win and the rest have yet to make a final at this level. Very hard to call a winner.

Zverev was serving for the match against Fritz but he started serving double faults, couldn't get a first serve in and apparently his backhand started to fail him. He seems to have become unsettled by the partisan crowd but it is difficult to tell. No seeds left in the draw.

All the players left are seeded - just none higher than Norrie in 21st.

Norrie probably won't ever have a better chance to win a Masters Tournament but it still won't be easy.

Dimi, though, has had some tough matches. But even so I think he'll edge Cameron.

Will this be Norrie's one great season or can he do even better next year? He could find it difficult in 2022. I still think it's been a slightly strange season due to Covid, injuries, absences etc.

Another terrific result for Norrie, allowing Dimi just six games.

I thought maybe the Bulgarian might have too much for Cameron but, by all accounts, he was a little off, while the Briton continued his excellent California form.

This is now Norrie's sixth final of the season and he'll now face Basilashvili for the IW crown. He would be the first Briton to win it.

At this rate at the end of the season will Norrie will qualify for the Tour Finals. Last I looked he was 12th and Nadal (5th) won't be there I do not think.

If Norrie wins today he'll be up to ninth and will need to better Hurkacz's result at the Paris Masters to qualify.

Could be an exciting match because there's a good chance for both of them that this will be the only time in their career they get to a masters series final and don't have to play one of the top few ranked players in the world. So quite possibly the biggest match of their careers.

As far as I can see from wikipedia, neither player has ever reached a QF at either masters series or slam level.

Indian Wells you could also argue is perhaps the most prestigious of the masters - even if that isn´t true this year.

I wonder if the stadium will be full this year, though. Haven´t watched any matches so not sure how many people are going or what the COVID restrictions are. Might be a full stadium if it sold out advance. I can´t imagine too many people rushing to buy tickets at the last minute for this one.

The prize money is $1.2 million for the winner, $0.64 for the loser, so about $0.6 million at stake in this match. That´s a fair bit higher than most or all other masters series I believe.

Cameron Norris has earned $3.5 million so far in his entire career, that probably has left him with $1 million or $2 million for his entire career after paying staff, expenses and taxes. So a tournament win would be about a quarter of his entire career winnings so far.

Nikolaz Basilashvili has earned $6.7 million for his entire career.

So they are probably both earning average $300,000 per year at this point (prior to this tournament) after taxes and expenses and paying staff. Actually not that bad at all.

Although you have to factor in that once they are retired they will struggle to earn at that level again (I assume?) so they are probably, if they are smart, living off about $100-200,000 per year while saving.

Actually now that I´ve done the math it wasn´t quite the result I expected. THey don´t really need the money that much, I think it will be more about the prestige. They aren´t exactly doing badly in life.

Maybe whoever wins this can pay off their parent´s mortgage or give a charity a good day.

Actually now I think of it I forgot to account for sponsors and any other earnings, like coaching or something maybe.

So it is actually probably a bit better than I said.

Well one thing is sure is that should Cameron Norrie win it will be the biggest win for a British male player (Andy aside) since Tim Henman won the Paris Masters in 2003.

Well, you´re not missing much here. It´s been a solid, competent match, somewhat low key with a half empty stadium and crowd not particularly fired up. Decent quality but often dull and unimaginative rallying, some errors. Norrie was a bit weak end of first and start of second set.

However at the end of the second set Norrie went up a gear with two great points won with a volley and a great down the line pass on the run to get 0-30 up before going on to get the break and set. Finally something to get excited about there, some flair. I think those two points changed the mood and maybe even the direction of the match. You could feel it at the time.

Neither player really choking in this big match. Basilashvili looks a bit tired now towards the end of the 3rd set. Suspect Norrie in better physical shape.

Just has a look at the norrie - schwartzman highlights here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4xNu_WV-j8

hard to tell from such highlights that always make a performance look better than the reality but it looks like the freak result was more of a great performance by Norrie than Schwartzman having any issue

Norrie got his biggest win pretty convincingly in the end... Thought he was in a spot of trouble after the first set ; but as Henman Bill says that excellent game to seize the break and level at one set all seemed to rather fill him with confidence and the opposite for his opponent. Third set was only ever going one way.
Whatever happens from here it has been a great year for Norrie

Just been watching some highlights of the final. Basilashvili came up with some brutal hitting for a set and a half but Norrie was able to stay with him.

As referred to above, that BH passing shot at 4-5, 0-15 pretty much won Cameron the second set. He said later that the two winners in that game gave him great confidence.

He's now up to 10th in the Race to Turin (effectively 9th as Rafa won't be playing). In the actual rankings he's up to 15, with the IW points in the bag until this time next year.

Norrie has been so consistent in the smaller tournaments that he should not have too much trouble defending his points in 2022. If he does better in the Slams he could be looking at the top 10.

There are quite a few players that at the beginning of their career do well in the smaller tournaments and do less well in the bigger tournaments. Then there are those that do well in non-slam tournaments and less well in slam tournaments.  Zverev was somebody who had difficulty in slam tournaments but he has significantly improved since.  Zverev was of course a lot younger than Cam Norrie, but Norrie is a late bloomer having spent time in the US college system.

Some people claim that Norrie doesn't have nearly the talent of someone like a Shapovalov, but has good mental resolve to make the most of his somewhat limited abilities.

ps: the Badosa vs Azarenka women's final was considered to be a classic for drama and entertainment.  Badosa won on a third set tiebreaker in a see-saw three setter where Azarenka fought back from a set down and a break down in the second set to win the second set and had the chance to serve out the match and got to 30-0 on her serve only to lose the next 7 points - which took the final set to a tie-breaker.

pps: Both Badosa and Norrie were seeded 21 in this tournament

Well with that win Norrie has already proven lots of people wrong. Many saw him as a journeyman whose ranking would perhaps reach the top 32 if he were lucky and no more than that. Well with his win in Indian Wells he has reached the top ten. He is also a Masters winner and in with a good shout of reaching the Tour Finals. Well done Cameron Norrie.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Well with that win Norrie has already proven lots of people wrong. Many saw him as a journeyman whose ranking would perhaps reach the top 32 if he were lucky and no more than that. Well with his win in Indian Wells he has reached the top ten. He is also a Masters winner and in with a good shout of reaching the Tour Finals. Well done Cameron Norrie.

He's ranked 15th in the world now, still quite a way off the top ten.

Soul Requiem wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Well with that win Norrie has already proven lots of people wrong. Many saw him as a journeyman whose ranking would perhaps reach the top 32 if he were lucky and no more than that. Well with his win in Indian Wells he has reached the top ten. He is also a Masters winner and in with a good shout of reaching the Tour Finals. Well done Cameron Norrie.

He's ranked 15th in the world now, still quite a way off the top ten.

Apologies I do believe I was looking at the race to the Tour Finals ranking.

If you look here
https://www.atptour.com/en/players/cameron-norrie/n771/rankings-breakdown
you can see that most of his points fall off in 2022
with most of the big ones being kept until at least May 2022

It looks extremely likely that he will improve his ranking between now and May 2022. If he does not, it will be due to either injury or extremely poor form.

It seems a reasonable bet that he will achieve his peak career ranking somewhere between the end of April 2022 and October 2022. I am not sure if he will make top ten at year end 2021, but if he doesn't, it looks likely he will early next year. The odds are in his favour that he will be in the top ten by April (if not sooner).

Of course after his points drop next year after Indian Wells, his ranking will likely fall down quite a bit at that point.

Possible key to Norrie's ranking in 2022 will be his performance in the Slams.

He only gathered 280 points in the Slams in 2021 and a decent run at any of them next year will eclipse that.

I must say I'm surprised, and thrilled, by Cameron's progress. He appears to be a lot more aggressive at the moment and looks a really difficult guy to play against.

With reference to that Badosa win: When I've seen her she's looked good. You feel the women's tour at the moment is very competitive, with almost anyone capable of a big win. Is it down to improved standards lower down the rankings or lack of consistency by the top players?

Meanwhile, Murray - still searching for that big break-through tournament - is up against Tiafoe today and, if he wins, he then faces Schwartzman.