Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread

[beninho]

First topic message reminder :

It does seem that this cat video is pretty old. But, also oeople seem more upset about it then say, Chelsea having a player who killed someone when he was drink driving.

We are a nation of animal lovers, my mum was all in on Romanian rescue dogs, not so keen on Romanian people.
,

[Pal Joey]

I've been looking at this type of broad brush global geo-political history lately. I find the big picture fascinating. Sanctions are simply micro tools which can cause disruption - but don't forget the Russians are fairly resilient folk and have had a lot of practice living under extreme hardships. They also control massive resources and have enough available labour to churn out products under 'supervision'. Like China can. The US too when required.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History

I ripped a few paragraphs out covering some relevant points of Mackinder's theory - in italics.

The vital question was how to secure control for the Heartland. This question may seem pointless, since in 1904 the Russian Empire had ruled most of the area from the Volga to Eastern Siberia for centuries. But throughout the nineteenth century:

The West European powers had combined, usually successfully, in the Great Game to prevent Russian expansion.

The Russian Empire was huge but socially, politically and technologically backward – i.e. inferior in "virility, equipment and organization".

Critics of the theory also argue that in modern day practice, the theory is outdated due to the evolution of technological warfare, as at the time of publication, Mackinder only considered land and sea powers. In modern day time there are possibilities of attacking a rival without the need for a direct invasion via cyber attacks, aircraft or use of long range missile strikes. Add to that tactical nuclear.

A more modern development to which the heartland theory can still be attributed to exist is through Russia's oil pipelines scandals. Heartland theory implies that the world island is full of resources to be exploited," Any initiative by the United States to open the market access in Central Asia implies that this state is targeted for the exploration of multinational energy companies. The efforts of domination for the exploration of natural resources are also apparent in the case of Russia. Study found that Russia wants to have pipelines be transported through its territory. However the Russian energy companies are working on behalf of market interests, they often constrain the behaviour of the state"


Some food for thought. This is where I believe Putin has a strong hand at the moment. He understands his position as well as the West's position. The West are also aware of this too. Putin can throw his people into the cauldron but the West cannot afford to risk the same. It's the world's killing fields.

In regards to Russia, Donbass and Ukraine - apart from the several huge rivers there are also so many smaller rivers and streams. One more river... Just ask the Germans or read their memoirs. So not only freezing winters and boiling hot summers... the geography in that part of the world is a death trap for 'traditional' ground forces. The newer technology overcomes all this. Look what happened to Saddam's Republican Guards in southern Iraq in Desert Storm in 1991. It will be worse in this new situation on different terrain.

[McLaren]

Super

But what do you think he should do?

Stricter sanctions, how about sanctions on more than two banks and five individuals?

Fair enough. I agree that more sanctions that hit the people that matter would be good, but I am not sure even that would get Putin back into line.


But isn't the problem that everyone is skirting around the fact Putin could press the button. If any other nation lined it's troops up around a European country and then encroached like Russia has with Ukraine it would have been pummeled with air strikes, at a minimum. And that goes for the Crimea invasion of 2014 as well. Putin has moved all that military hardware to an area where it could be easily taken out by even a small countries air force and he knows nothing will happen to it.


I know this is getting hysterical but as a small thought experiment, realistically what would happen if Putin decides to just keep going. How far into Europe do you let him go before fighting back and taking the risk of getting nuked?

[super_realist]

Maybe if Biden hadnt left all his equipment around in Afghanistan for the Taliban he could have given some of it to Ukraine?

[beninho]

So the Russian funded tory Party have been pretty light on putin so far. Be interesting to see how they handle this.

[super_realist]

So the Russian funded tory Party have been pretty light on putin so far. Be interesting to see how they handle this.  

The largest donor to the Labour party is from the Communist Party of China. Glass houses and all that.

I exoect theyll handle it just as weakly as every other Western nation has, whilst ill also add that Russian lickspittles Flabbot and McDonnel are claming that this invasion is NATO's fault.
Starmer needs to get rid of these poisonous goons.

[beninho]

I may be wrong but labour aren't in government and the Chinese aren't invading a near neighbour. So, not sure on the relevance.

[super_realist]

I may be wrong but labour aren't in government and the Chinese aren't invading a near neighbour. So, not sure on the relevance.

Thank goodness Labour aren't. Can you imagine a cabinet of Abbot and McDonnel siding with Russia?

[Soul Requiem]

I may be wrong but labour aren't in government and the Chinese aren't invading a near neighbour. So, not sure on the relevance.

I suppose China are just partaking in a gentle bit of genocide instead on top of annexing Taiwan and Tibet.

There's not a great deal the west can do about Russia, they cannot risk a full scale war and Europe in particular rely too heavily on Russian gas especially right now. The sanctions are meaningless but the alternatives just aren't worth risking.

[beninho]

The thing with Russia is it unites right wing and left wing, faraga is of the same view, and probably a number of Conservative mps. We know that the Tory Party has many friends of Russia in its ranks.

The talk is that the expansion of Nato East, has destabilised the area I have very little knowledge on it, and you seem to be the font of all knowledge, is this not correct?

[Duty281]

Sanctions are pointless. The West is weak, killing itself, and reliant on Russia (and China). The EU is predictably useless. Trump's strong foreign policy has been replaced by a man who probably doesn't know what day of the week it is. Putin is a political giant compared to anyone in the West. The closest the West had was Merkel, but she recently departed. And the UN is the most ineffectual organisation since the League of Nations. It's a talking shop and not even a good one.

Results? Predictable. Best hope Putin stops at Ukraine.

[pedro]

I may be wrong but labour aren't in government and the Chinese aren't invading a near neighbour. So, not sure on the relevance.

I suppose China are just partaking in a gentle bit of genocide instead on top of annexing Taiwan and Tibet.

There's not a great deal the west can do about Russia, they cannot risk a full scale war and Europe in particular rely too heavily on Russian gas especially right now. The sanctions are meaningless but the alternatives just aren't worth risking.

Well, oil now at $100 a barrel will sure help fund Putins little war. Only thing the West can do is completely eliminate dependency on Russias oil and gas. Maybe the Russians can then sell it to China / Asia, but so be a it. At least the villains in the Middle East don't have major nationalist or territorial ambitions, so better be dependent on them. Plus, we need, as an interim measure, delay the green transition and explore possibilities of turning German nuclear plants back on, delay phasing out of coal, plus import fracked gas from the US. Yes, not what most people like to hear, but the alternative is worse.

[pedro]

The dilemma with NATO expansion is that the former East block is dead scared of Russia (for a good reason). On the hand, one must understand that Russia is not fond of the idea of NATO missiles potentially being lined up all along their Western border.

Where the West has failed is to assist the Eastern European countries and former Soviet republics in entering in some sort of security arrangement with Russia, where Russia one way or the other would guarantee their independence and security. But obviously some in
the West can't let go of the cold war and rather sees a NATO expansion, so the current situation is more or less predictable. I remind, what were the effects of the post Crimea sanctions?

[pedro]

[McLaren]

I don't know how the conversation on here ended up as a petty UK domestic political squabble. The Russians just went to war against Europe FFS.

[dynamark]

Fair point Mac Interesting to note the Russian stock market dropped 30% today so that must slightly upset some close to Putin. Intel says he is not well supported by his generals so just maybe some may start to put their hands up and say hold back -but its started so it will have a finish,Bad day all round . All power to the Ukrainians who want to defend their country

[McLaren]

There is no way this ends well. Either Putin is left alone to "take back" whatever countries he wants or Europe/US fights back and COVID looks like a fucking picnic.

[Galted]

Breaking news on Tw*tter is that France has surrendered.

[JuliusHMarx]

Breaking news on Tw*tter is that France has surrendered.

Not enough sniper rifles to protect itself?

[Shotrock]

Good points Mac. Here's my guess:

Ukranian people suffer brutally.

West goes heavy on inflicting economic damage.

The UN goes into 'special' council -- where small country delegates argue and discuss meaningless stuff endlessly and eventually pass toothless resolutions. Meanwhile, the super powers broker some sort of deal to help bolster Russia's economy after they assume Ukraine.

I seem to recall that Putin's daughter lived/lives/still owns property at a beautiful estate adjacent to a hole a St. George's Hill. At least that's what a member told me as we were playing there and looking at the "Beware of Guard Dog" signs one could see from the tee box. Don't recall the hole.

[Mind the windows Tino.]

Don't recall the hole.

We've all been there.

[Galted]

Breaking news on Tw*tter is that France has surrendered.

Not enough sniper rifles to protect itself?

Not enough vengeance bows, their introduction has made sniper rifles redundant.  Thought I'd made myself clear on that.

[JuliusHMarx]

Breaking news on Tw*tter is that France has surrendered.

Not enough sniper rifles to protect itself?

Not enough vengeance bows, their introduction has made sniper rifles redundant.  Thought I'd made myself clear on that.

Bows, or bows?

[Galted]

Breaking news on Tw*tter is that France has surrendered.

Not enough sniper rifles to protect itself?

Not enough vengeance bows, their introduction has made sniper rifles redundant.  Thought I'd made myself clear on that.

Bows, or bows?

Bows, ffs, as in rows and sows.

[incontinentia]

From all the USA's big talk in the lead up to this, I defo thought they'd respond militarily if Russia invaded.

[McLaren]

Super

I know you don't like protest but come on, how brave are those people across Russia out protesting against Putins invasion of Ukraine?

I genuinely felt a pang of emotion seeing those images.

[Shotrock]

NFW US gets involved militarily unless this really escalates.

Sure as heck hope not.

(Trump is pulling for Putin.)

[McLaren]

Shotrock

A US/Russia war doesn't bear thinking about. As I said earlier, I don't think we could rule out Putin going nuclear.

Our only hope for some sort of decent swift resolution is if the Ukrainians can somehow repel the Russian invasion. The rest of the world would be forever indebted to them if they could. It is just so sad that whatever the outcome the Ukrainians are going to suffer a terrible death toll.

[super_realist]

From all the USA's big talk in the lead up to this, I defo thought they'd respond militarily if Russia invaded.

You kidding? You understand NATO protocol right? No clearly.

[super_realist]

On the plus side, my Oil and Gas shares are rising.

[incontinentia]

From all the USA's big talk in the lead up to this, I defo thought they'd respond militarily if Russia invaded.

You kidding? You understand NATO protocol right? No clearly.

Everyone knows those protocols are just window dressing, there will always be scope for USA to act as policeman if one nation invades another.

I thought USA could provide military support to the Ukrainians on the frontline in a defensive capacity, obviously no attacks on the Russian motherland or anything like that.

[super_realist]

USA probaby havent invaded because they dont know where it is.

USA could have provided Ukraine with all the military equipment they needed if Senile Biden hadnt given it all to the Taliban.

[incontinentia]

Who's to say USA and Russia can't fight each other using conventional (non-nuclear) weapons only? War has rules, its not a stretch to imagine them coming to an agreement on this. Don't know if any of you watched Oliver Stone's series of interviews with Putin, but Stone mentioned USA's nuclear superiority; apparently USA have the capability to cancel out a Russian nuclear strike before it even begins.

[super_realist]

The more imortant question is where Putin stops.
Either way, Beninho is going to be even more busy with channel crossings.

[Soul Requiem]

The more imortant question is where Putin stops.
Either way, Beninho is going to be even more busy with channel crossings.

At the west Ukranian border, he will not place a single foot in a NATO country. If he were to do so there would be full scale war and it's one he cannot possibly win, he has however been scouting the UK defences for a number of years now, testing the response time of the RAF multiple times.

[super_realist]

14 borders is a concern, plus taking Ukraine gives an additional 5

[beninho]

https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1496967376486686730?t=tv124J2kHOGkV2RfRZIBdQ&s=19

This was interesting, basically there is no way this works out for Putin in the long run. Various things, but Russia just aren't in a position to swallow a country the size of Ukraine. I guess the end goal is trying to get a Russia friendly government rather then the western looking one.

[McLaren]

Ben

It would be bold for anyone to proclaim they know what Putin counts as working out well for him. If the guy writing that thread thinks Putin is worried about how to cover Ukrainian pensions then he can't have been watching the same Putin as me over the last 25 years. The only thing we know for sure is the Ukrainian people are going to suffer massively.

[McLaren]

What I do find a bit odd is that the English nationalist phase we are going through right now in UK politics has somehow left us more in bed with Russia than ever.

[super_realist]

What I do find a bit odd is that the English nationalist phase we are going through right now in UK politics has somehow left us more in bed with Russia than ever.

What are you on about Mac? Its the mad lefties like Corbyn, McDonnel and Flabbot that are supporting Russia and blaming NATO for this.

[McLaren]

Anyone have any thoughts on the Ukrainian government handing out guns to its civilians?

I assume they are hoping for a Taliban style gritty defence, but in reality they are probably lambs to the slaughter in the face of professional soldiers.

[McLaren]

What I do find a bit odd is that the English nationalist phase we are going through right now in UK politics has somehow left us more in bed with Russia than ever.

What are you on about Mac? Its the mad lefties like Corbyn, McDonnel and Flabbot that are supporting Russia and blaming NATO for this.

But crucially, and surely you welcome this, Corbyn, McDonnel and Abbott have never had any real say in the UK's relationship with Russia. And in any case I was more talking about the Oligarchs that have bought up London, the London banking's scenes increased links to Russia and the funding of UK political parties/movements by Russian money.

[super_realist]

All of which is just as true under Labour governments Mac.
I dont see either party being better or worse for such things.

[super_realist]

Anyone have any thoughts on the Ukrainian government handing out guns to its civilians?

I assume they are hoping for a Taliban style gritty defence, but in reality they are probably lambs to the slaughter in the face of professional soldiers.

Mac, did you consider that Ukrainians all do national service (males at least) ? These people are already military reservists.

[McLaren]

Anyone have any thoughts on the Ukrainian government handing out guns to its civilians?

I assume they are hoping for a Taliban style gritty defence, but in reality they are probably lambs to the slaughter in the face of professional soldiers.

Mac, did you consider that Ukrainians all do national service (males at least) ? These people are already military reservists.

I hope you are correct that it helps. But do you think an unorganized group of citizens (if somewhat trained) have much chance against an actual army?

[super_realist]

Did you not understand the term military reservist?
Do you think the Territorial Army are just a bunch of indisciplined yobs with rifles?

[beninho]

What I do find a bit odd is that the English nationalist phase we are going through right now in UK politics has somehow left us more in bed with Russia than ever.

What are you on about Mac? Its the mad lefties like Corbyn, McDonnel and Flabbot that are supporting Russia and blaming NATO for this.

It's also very much the far righties. Farage, Daubney. Like they all meet in a happy middle

[super_realist]

What I do find a bit odd is that the English nationalist phase we are going through right now in UK politics has somehow left us more in bed with Russia than ever.

What are you on about Mac? Its the mad lefties like Corbyn, McDonnel and Flabbot that are supporting Russia and blaming NATO for this.

It's also very much the far righties. Farage, Daubney. Like they all meet in a happy middle

I havent heard any of these people you mention blaming Britain or NATO for this. Its the far left loons that believe everything we do is wrong and have no sense of belonging to this country.

Im surprised they actually still live here, but thats the nature of being a champagne socialist. Remember it was Corbyn who refused to accept that Russia was responsible for Salisbury, Litvenyenko etc. (or condemn them) not Farage

[Duty281]

The more imortant question is where Putin stops.

With how deranged Putin is sounding, I wouldn't be surprised if he wanted to make incursions into the three Baltic states (all NATO), especially if Sweden/Finland end up in NATO as a result of this.

Of course, that depends on the Ukrainian invasion being successful, from Putin's point of view. Apparently Russian forces failed to capture Chernihiv, and the Americans are claiming that Russia have 'lost momentum'.

[super_realist]

The more imortant question is where Putin stops.

With how deranged Putin is sounding, I wouldn't be surprised if he wanted to make incursions into the three Baltic states (all NATO), especially if Sweden/Finland end up in NATO as a result of this.

Of course, that depends on the Ukrainian invasion being successful, from Putin's point of view. Apparently Russian forces failed to capture Chernihiv, and the Americans are claiming that Russia have 'lost momentum'.

Sweden doesnt border Russia and has never been part of Russia.

[incontinentia]

Why are people extrapolating that Putin will invade other countries?

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