Premiership Run-in

I thought it would be useful to have a thread to discuss how fans are feeling about their club’s final few games of the season and their chances of qualifying for the playoffs or Champions Cup.

For Quins, I think we are currently tracking ahead of where we would need to be to finish in fourth, and four points from the last four games should do it. A home semi final is probably beyond us, barring a dramatic drop in Saracens’ form, and many fans would actually prefer to go to Welford Road than the Stone X.

The Run in:
No question it’s a tough run in: Tigers at home, Saints away, Gloucester at the Big Stoop and Exeter at Sandy Park. On form, that could easily be three losses… but we ran Tigers close at Welford Road in the autumn, and we’ve a pretty decent recent record against Saints and Gloucester and in our games over the road.

If Quins had to go to Sandy Park needing a win, I’d be very nervous, but I don’t think it will come to that. My guess would be narrow losses but bonus points in the first two, a win against Glaws, and a thumping by Exeter as Quins rest players ahead of the semi.

Reasons to be fearful:
- Tough run in
- An injury list that would have crippled us in the past: Kenningham, Green, Lamb out long term, doubts over Lewies, Allan, David and both Chisholms
- Likely to have to beat both Saracens and Tigers if we want to retain the title
- Danny Care’s unquenchable thirst for yellow cards

Reasons to be cheerful:
- For every injury we have, we seem to have a fine replacement coming through. Will Evans is nearly ready to return to first team action, Huw Jones looks better at fullback than at centre, Tizard, Hammond and Jurevicius have bolstered our locking ranks, Will Edwards is a better backup to Smith than we could have hoped for, Beard gives cover from 13-15
- Our England players are back and in good form. Marchant in particular seems to have raised his game a notch.
- Strength in depth in the pack, especially with Wilco Louw returning to fitness
- The closer we get to the end of the season, the better the conditions suit Quins’ style of play
- It’s Quins. A deficit on the scoreboard, however large, is just a bunch of tries we haven’t scored yet. We might run out of time, but we won’t run out of ideas or endeavour.

Poorfour wrote:

Reasons to be cheerful:
- For every injury we have, we seem to have a fine replacement coming through. Will Evans is nearly ready to return to first team action, Huw Jones looks better at fullback than at centre, Tizard, Hammond and Jurevicius have bolstered our locking ranks, Will Edwards is a better backup to .

Isnt he off to Saracens?

Yes, but until the end of the season he's ours and playing well. Last year's prem winning XXIII had Scott Baldwin, Martin Landajo and Ben Tapuai in it - all of whom left at the end of the season and had their leaving presentation at the last home game, but played a key part in the run-in and final.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Tiz didn't play in a knockout match against Sarries.

What do i want to see in the run in....

Where do i start!!

Tigers have got Quins (a), Bristol (h), Falcons (a) and Wasps (h). However, pre Quins there's a double header Vs Clermont and then after Quins a Tuesday night game Vs LI in the PRC.

I suspect we'll see some rotation for the Quins game, probably in line with what we did Vs Saracens. Rest two or three that need it after those two brutal games Vs Clermont with some normal starters maybe benching instead of starting. Then throw out the development team Vs LI.

Should then allow a as fresh as possible side to go out against Bears. I'd hope with those last three games we should hold onto top spot, how fresh we'll be might depend on whether the European and PRC games go.

To be honest, Quins don't have a 'decent' record against my Saints.  They have hammered the snot out of Saints.  Now, recently Saints are playing better Rugby (less Boyd-ball) so in with a puncher's chance at the top 4.  But given their record which is 11 up and 9 down, still a mid-level team.  And it will take a lot to prove they are not the same club which found ways to lose late on in 4 or 5 matches this season.  Combined with their habit of giving up soft tries as well has cost them a comfortable top 4 place.    

Saints remaining matches are:
at Bath
home v. Quins
at Saracens
home v. Falcons

So we play Tigers and Saints in the run in....marvelous.

Bath have  Saints (H), Gloucester (A), London Irish(H) & Worcester (A), so respectfully not as tough as it could be, just depends on what team Bath can get out.

This season has been pretty chastening for the management both in terms of available playing resource and subsequent game management style. The incoming new coaching regime will be interesting to watch.
One bright note, Obano has resigned a new contract, when the rumours of a move to Saracens seemed likely. Suspect next seasons salary cap ultimately killed a potential deal.

GeordieFalcon wrote:So we play Tigers and Saints in the run in....marvelous.

Yeah if you could roll over and give us a TBP win that would be helpful for us in finishing top.

We have

LI at home
Sale Away
Tigers at home
Saints away...

GeordieFalcon wrote:We have

LI at home
Sale Away
Tigers at home
Saints away...

This ain't easy.

Tigers run in:

Quins (A)
Bristol (H)
Falcons (A)
Wasps (H)

Quins away is the biggest challenge there. Before Quins we have the two ERCC legs against Clermont though. Also the PRC semi away to LI after the Quins game.

This is where competing in three competitions gets tough. It will be a great test of the squad and Borthwick how he manages them over the next few weeks.

Marco van Staden is out long term due to concussion. Cole hasn't played since 11th February either. Big absentees but with Heyes and Reffell playing so well there is good cover.

Potter missed the Chiefs game but hopefully that's not long term.

I obviously can't wait to see how the team goes but am really intrigued by Chessum in particular. Set-piece tends to get even more vital as you reach the business end of the season. Sides start getting closer to full strength, defences improve and chances get fewer. Taking those chances is the difference between a good season with silverware or without. Hence the set-piece is so vital. I really hope Chessum starts the big games at lock rather than blindside.

doctor_grey wrote:

GeordieFalcon wrote:We have

LI at home
Sale Away
Tigers at home
Saints away...

This ain't easy.

Ah it'll just put us firmly back in our position of bottom...where Dean seems to like us being.

Quins v Tigers looks more and more interesting. Quins have two Montpellier games, Tigers two Clermont games and the PRC Semi.

Neither side needs to win this game to qualify. Both would probably like to - but will also be balancing how to keep their squads fresh and how to maintain momentum.

On balance, and depending heavily on how the ERCC games go, I think it slightly favours Quins. If Tigers are even a little off their full intensity, Quins are in the sort of form to create holes. They were a missed kick away from a draw at Welford Road in the autumn, and it could tip either way at the Stoop.

Flacons (a)
Wasps (h)
Bath (a).
Maybe get a win out of those 3.

Last 3 games have suffered heavy defeats, conceding over 40 points, although they were against Quins, Saints and Tigers.
Previous 4 games went undefeated.

Was hoping we could push for fourth a few weeks back. Wasn’t to be.

Some interesting results along the way though.

Dont forget the Falcons are doing their usual...coming in to form for the last 3/4 games of the season so every one thinks Dean is a god and forgets the rest of the season.

So we could affect a few top 4 hopes...

Poorfour wrote:Quins v Tigers looks more and more interesting. Quins have two Montpellier games, Tigers two Clermont games and the PRC Semi.

Neither side needs to win this game to qualify. Both would probably like to - but will also be balancing how to keep their squads fresh and how to maintain momentum.

On balance, and depending heavily on how the ERCC games go, I think it slightly favours Quins. If Tigers are even a little off their full intensity, Quins are in the sort of form to create holes. They were a missed kick away from a draw at Welford Road in the autumn, and it could tip either way at the Stoop.

Had Huw Jones given the pass rather than backing himself to go through Potter's tackle there was a certain try left out there as well.

I would have thought Quins would be more inclined to go hard at home as losing at home to a rival can knock confidence. Tigers as I said before will probably rotate on the basis we a) need it and b) it becomes less of a game for us. Lose and it's a weakened team lost at their place but win and it's a weakened team went to their place and beat them. Can spin it either way to keep confidence high.

Montpellier are also top of the French league so might not take Europe as seriously (if Quins are lucky). Clermont are mid table so this could be their best chance of silverware though it is very hard to tell with the French clubs. Tigers are away first and if they can somehow sneak that then Clermont might not turn up with the same might at WR would it be the other way round.

French teams tend to prioritise their home games - and both Tigers and Quins are away (and back to back - that's going to be a cracking Sunday afternoon's viewing if I can wrest the remote away from my kids!).

How they approach the return leg will I think depend on how Sunday goes. I can't find anywhere how the fixture is decided (I assume aggregate across the two legs but it could be match points scored with total scores as a decider), but a loss or even a narrow victory at home might change the complexion of the return leg.

Poorfour wrote:French teams tend to prioritise their home games - and both Tigers and Quins are away (and back to back - that's going to be a cracking Sunday afternoon's viewing if I can wrest the remote away from my kids!).

How they approach the return leg will I think depend on how Sunday goes. I can't find anywhere how the fixture is decided (I assume aggregate across the two legs but it could be match points scored with total scores as a decider), but a loss or even a narrow victory at home might change the complexion of the return leg.

Supposed to be aggregate points scored, not match points.  But, given the bizarre nature of how Rugby is run, a tie-breaker might go down to the team with more sponsors of their jerseys, or even worse, on the backs of their shorts.

How do people feel about the run ins now that Europe is done with for a while? As a Quins fan i'm disapointed we were so close but couldn't quite manage it, but pleased with how we performed for 120 of the 160 minutes of those two Montpelier games.

Tigers played incredibly though so it'll be a big ask to beat them. I think we'll probably come away with a lbp, as Tigers just seem to have their mojo at the moment.

After that I hope for two wins and then another narrow loss, so perhaps 10-12 points from the last four.

yappysnap wrote:How do people feel about the run ins now that Europe is done with for a while? As a Quins fan i'm disapointed we were so close but couldn't quite manage it, but pleased with how we performed for 120 of the 160 minutes of those two Montpelier games.

Tigers played incredibly though so it'll be a big ask to beat them. I think we'll probably come away with a lbp, as Tigers just seem to have their mojo at the moment.

After that I hope for two wins and then another narrow loss, so perhaps 10-12 points from the last four.

That's probably realistic though I live in hope that Borthwick decides to rotate his squad this weekend... Either way, I think Quins will probably secure a playoff spot unless the wheels completely fall off in the next few games. One important factor will be which teams fall out of contention for the top 4. If all of Saints, Gloucester and Exeter are still in the running when we face them it could be a lot tougher than if one slips out of contention or is secure in their slot.

I'm unsure how Borthwick will approach Quins. He has rotated a bit away from home in general but then went full whack at Chiefs and got a win. He might be viewing it as just getting the best side available game time together now it's KO time.

With the PRC semi on Tuesday it'll be quite tough to rotate anyway. The entire squad will be used across the next 3 matches in 10 days. Then comes the Leinster juggernaut to Welford Road the week after. Competing on three fronts is great but this is where it gets tough to manage and squad depth really gets tested.

Kelly being injured is a big blow. He's been cracking this season. Porter banned too. Scott and Moroni are very good replacements in midfield.

I'm just hoping we see Martin back from injury soon. That would take some pressure off Liebenberg, Reffell and Wiese. Especially with van Staden not looking any nearer a return from the latest concussion layoff - which is certainly a long term concern for such a fantastic player, sadly.

That's a tough schedule - four matches in two weeks, three of them away from home, and two of them knockout games. Given they've already qualified for Premiership semi-final, I guess I can hope that the cup games become the priority.

Brutal schedule for Tigers there, fingers crossed you have one eye on the matches over the next few weeks...

Also what's happened to Tommy Allan, is he injured?

yappysnap wrote:Also what's happened to Tommy Allan, is he injured?

He's had two head knocks and a shoulder knock already this season but he's not been listed as injured recently. I suspect it's simply that Edwards has done such a good job that he's now being picked on form. Allan is still a better game manager but Edwards has integrated really well into Quins' attacking style and also seems to provide excellent cover for 9 and 10 at the same time when Danny Care is enjoying another of his yellow cards.

Poorfour wrote:That's a tough schedule - four matches in two weeks, three of them away from home, and two of them knockout games. Given they've already qualified for Premiership semi-final, I guess I can hope that the cup games become the priority.

4 in 3 rather than two but still tough, yes. Especially with one being Leinster in a KO game. They are approaching full strength now which is basically a strong international side. At full tilt they really are something special.

Thinking about availability we may see close to full strength, minus injured players, against Quins and Bristol as a necessity with the other squad players being needed for the PRC semi midweek.

Prem games:

1.Genge 2.Montoya 3.Cole 4.Wells 5.Snyman 6.Liebenberg 7.Reffell 8.Wiese
9.Youngs 10.Ford 11.Nadolo 12.Scott 13.Moroni 14.Potter 15.Steward

16.Dolly 17.Whitcombe 18.Heyes 19.Green 20.Robinson 21.JvP 22.Burns 23.Murimurivalu

PRC:

1.van Wyk 2.Clare 3.Leatiaga 4.Manz 5.L Chessum 6.Agbongbon 7.Jansen 8.Ilione
9.Wigglesworth 10.Lancaster 11.Saumaki 12.Socino 13.Taute 14.Ashton 15.Hegarty

16.Vanes 17.Richardson 18.Hurd 19.Scott (Notts player) 20.Koroiyadi 21.Edwards 22.Woodward 23.Cuisick

To get two full squads that's required most of who's available that's played this season. There are a couple more academy players that have been on the bench in PRC games and some Nottingham players who have joined briefly for PRC games but it'll be all hands on deck. As such probably fairly close to full strength by necessity unless they rotate and accept the PRC semi team will have 3 or 4 Nottingham players in the starting XV.

Porter will be available again for the semi but I'd be surprised if he's used, likely saved for Bristol.

It would be an ideal time for the likes of Martin, van Staden and Cam Henderson to be available again that's for sure. With the back and second row injuries already it's a brutal time to lose Ollie Chessum to a likely 2 week ban.

Unsubstantiated rumours that Montoya was in a boot at the weekend and Martin has a leg injury that might see him not play again this season.

We might see a bit of rotation Vs Quins but I agree it'll be tough to arrange. Possibly Dolly/Clare as hookers, with TCD and Vanes then playing the PRC. Genge could maybe bench as opposed to start and Burns might rotate with Ford.

I'd have expected Wigglesworth to be more coach than player for the PRC, Edwards and Law are both good young 9s and particularly Edwards has put his foot forward as one to watch.

Agree we could do with a few to come back from injury, are the likes of Carnduff, Loose and Meredith still with England under 18s or back now? Carnduff would help the options at 6 potentially and an additional 10 and centre won't hurt.

I'm pretty certain that boots are used in a preventative way as much as to protect a more severe injury. If a player has twisted an ankle then the boot stabilises it and makes sure that no more serious damage has been done - it doesn't necessarily mean they won't be fit to play next week.

Tigers being as far ahead as they are in the table, you would really expect them to start resting players.
Its unlikely that they will be caught and drop out of the top 2 - so already have home advantage in the play offs.

That being said...continuity of selection at the business end of the season really does make a difference and is largely what helped Quins last year.

Quins however are only 4pts behind Sarries so - there is still the carrot of a home tie for them if they pick up any cheeky wins in the last games and Sarries slip up.......so I am expecting a strong selection for Quins.
Will Evans looked awesome on his comeback, shame to hear he picked up another knock though.

Poorfour wrote:I'm pretty certain that boots are used in a preventative way as much as to protect a more severe injury. If a player has twisted an ankle then the boot stabilises it and makes sure that no more serious damage has been done - it doesn't necessarily mean they won't be fit to play next week.

He didn't play at the weekend so there's a little worry he's picked up a knock. Hopefully not as he's been incredible for us this season. There's not many games I don't think he's been lower than an 8/10.

Generally I think Borthwick has the right idea. Rotate maybe a minor experiment away from home but still a strong side. At WR then it's full side out and look to underline that it is once again a fortress. We've not lost at home this season and it would be great to take that to the end of the season but Leinster might be too big an ask.

propdavid_london wrote:That being said...continuity of selection at the business end of the season really does make a difference and is largely what helped Quins last year.

Quins however are only 4pts behind Sarries so - there is still the carrot of a home tie for them if they pick up any cheeky wins in the last games and Sarries slip up.......so I am expecting a strong selection for Quins.  
Will Evans looked awesome on his comeback, shame to hear he picked up another knock though.

Agreed - but last year Quins put out a second string side once their Top 4 position was secure. They got hammered at Sale, but the upshot was that several of the players who featured in that match also played in the semi and final. The supporting players got experience, and the starters got a rest.

We’ll see if Borthwick’s mindset is the same. I’d expect his priority would be to have his strongest possible side to face Leinster, coupled with not overplaying too many players in the 3 game crunch. But given injuries, bans and the schedule he might not have many degrees of freedom anyway.

Sarries probably have the easier run in, are scoring fairly freely and still have annoyingly good squad depth, so they’re going to be hard to catch. All Quins can do is play the best they can, focus on getting bonus points from every match and hope for a slip or a rest week. Home advantage would be very nice… but this squad also knows it can go away from home and still win in a knockout game.

Will Evans took a cheap (and unpunished) shoulder to the ribs in a maul at the end of the first half. He’s tweeted that there’s no broken ribs on the scan so fingers crossed he can play in the remaining games with enough tape and bandages. He’s had a horrible year but worked really hard to get back in shape and has come back with no drop in form; fingers crossed he can get the chance he didn’t get last year.

propdavid_london wrote:Tigers being as far ahead as they are in the table, you would really expect them to start resting players.  
Its unlikely that they will be caught and drop out of the top 2 - so already have home advantage in the play offs.

That being said...continuity of selection at the business end of the season really does make a difference and is largely what helped Quins last year.

Quins however are only 4pts behind Sarries so - there is still the carrot of a home tie for them if they pick up any cheeky wins in the last games and Sarries slip up.......so I am expecting a strong selection for Quins.  
Will Evans looked awesome on his comeback, shame to hear he picked up another knock though.

It's more out of necessity I think we might be closer to full strength due to the midweek PRC game giving us Quins, LI and Brizz in 10 days. Throw in a few injuries and suspensions we will need to field most available players to get two 23s!

We have a partnership with Nottingham to get some of their players so they could rotate in the Prem and bring in a fair few Notts guys to get side out for the PRC if required. Especially now the Championship season is over.

I'll be interested to see how Borthwick handles the rotation. It's a tough few weeks and Leinster coming to Welford Road is a brutal draw having earned the home QF. If you want to go deep in the Champions Cup you have to play the best regardless of QF/SF/final though.

Such a shame for Will. He's a fantastic player and so much fun to watch. When he left Tigers I was so frustrated. At the time I compared him to Harry Thacker in that every time he's involved he seems to make a positive contribution. Players such as that are so much fun for fans as well as being brilliant assets. Hopefully he can find some fitness longer term.

Looks like Worcester are being investigated for their cancelled game with Gloucester.

More than meets the eye there??

Ah Gloucester have been awarded full 5 points and Worcester NIll!

GeordieFalcon wrote:Ah Gloucester have been awarded full 5 points and Worcester NIll!

Fully deserved. I think Wuss had tried to get it classified as a Covid call off but that was dismissed. Given Wuss were able to field a, albeit a very weak, team a few days later I don't think there was masses of sympathy.

Yeah they said it was fully down to Covid, but actually was a combination of injuries, covid and other issues.

So they mislead the RFU.

Looks like Tigers have rotated lots and Quins are almost at full strength so can assume Quins will have another win at the weekend.

formerly known as Sam wrote:Looks like Tigers have rotated lots and Quins are almost at full strength so can assume Quins will have another win at the weekend.

Really? I don't follow Tigers too closely but that looked like a strong side given the constraints on the squad. A bit light on back row experience and obviously not your best centre pairing, but still packed with a lot of talent.

For Quins, it looks like Will Evans is injured but otherwise it's as close as we can get to a full strength team given long term injuries. Our bench is probably the best we've put out all season.

For the record:
Harlequins Starting XV
1. Joe Marler
2. Jack Walker
3. Will Collier
4. Matt Symons
5. Hugh Tizard
6. Stephan Lewies :copyright:
7. Luke Wallace
8. Alex Dombrandt
9. Danny Care
10. Marcus Smith
11. Cadan Murley
12. Andre Esterhuizen
13. Joe Marchant
14. Louis Lynagh
15. Huw Jones

Impact Players
16. Joe Gray
17. Simon Kerrod
18. Wilco Louw
19. George Hammond
20. James Chisholm
21. Tom Lawday
22. Lewis Gjaltema
23. Nick David

TIGERS STARTING XV
15 Freddie Burns [96]
14 Harry Potter [35]
13 Matías Moroni [29]
12 Matt Scott [44]
11 Nemani Nadolo [31]
10 George Ford [122]
9 Ben Youngs [276]
1 Francois van Wyk [16]
2 Charlie Clare [46]
3 Joe Heyes [95]
4 Calum Green [85]
5 Eli Snyman [18]
6 Hanro Liebenberg [52]
7 Olly Robinson [5]
8 Sean Jansen [2]

REPLACMENTS
16 Tom Cowan-Dickie [6]
17 Ellis Genge [104]
18 Dan Cole [283]
19 Harry Wells [149]
20 Jasper Wiese [38]
21 Richard Wigglesworth [32]
22 Bryce Hegarty [13]
23 Chris Ashton [5]

Poorfour wrote:

formerly known as Sam wrote:Looks like Tigers have rotated lots and Quins are almost at full strength so can assume Quins will have another win at the weekend.

Really? I don't follow Tigers too closely but that looked like a strong side given the constraints on the squad. A bit light on back row experience and obviously not your best centre pairing, but still packed with a lot of talent.

For Quins, it looks like Will Evans is injured but otherwise it's as close as we can get to a full strength team given long term injuries. Our bench is probably the best we've put out all season.

For the record:
Harlequins Starting XV
1. Joe Marler
2. Jack Walker
3. Will Collier
4. Matt Symons
5. Hugh Tizard
6. Stephan Lewies
7. Luke Wallace
8. Alex Dombrandt
9. Danny Care
10. Marcus Smith
11. Cadan Murley
12. Andre Esterhuizen
13. Joe Marchant
14. Louis Lynagh
15. Huw Jones

Impact Players
16. Joe Gray
17. Simon Kerrod
18. Wilco Louw
19. George Hammond
20. James Chisholm
21. Tom Lawday
22. Lewis Gjaltema
23. Nick David

TIGERS STARTING XV
15 Freddie Burns [96]
14 Harry Potter [35]
13 Matías Moroni [29]
12 Matt Scott [44]
11 Nemani Nadolo [31]
10 George Ford [122]
9 Ben Youngs [276]
1 Francois van Wyk [16]
2 Charlie Clare [46]
3 Joe Heyes [95]
4 Calum Green [85]
5 Eli Snyman [18]
6 Hanro Liebenberg [52]
7 Olly Robinson [5]
8 Sean Jansen [2]

REPLACMENTS
16 Tom Cowan-Dickie [6]
17 Ellis Genge [104]
18 Dan Cole [283]
19 Harry Wells [149]
20 Jasper Wiese [38]
21 Richard Wigglesworth [32]
22 Bryce Hegarty [13]
23 Chris Ashton [5]

Yeah we don't go weak these days as we've actually built a squad up rather than rely on individuals which we haven't previously. Allows rotation without us automatically handing the opposition a TBP win.

Third and fourth choice hookers. Third choice loosehead, thordy choice 7, an 8 that's on a short term trial contract, Burns at fullback. Missing Montoya, Dolly, Chessum, van Staden and Martin up front that's five missing internationals up front. I'd expect Quins to take full advantage of that, hopefully we can grab a LBP.

Big game for Jansen at 8, EQ Kiwi that looked good at provincial level but was struggling to get a chance higher up. At 22 he's a prime candidate to be developed on, regular 8 size and seems to have a good engine and be physical on both sides of the ball but only seen him in PRC games this will be another level entirely. A good game here could get him an extended contract, Borthwick obviously likes him otherwise he wouldn't get the shot.

Ealing have withdrawn their appeal to be admitted into the league as they acknowledge their facilities don't meet the criteria.

Good result for Irish tonight. Dickson as bad as usual apparently ...

Agree about the win, a very solid performance by a better team. I kept wondering when Radwan would get the ball with some space. But Irish kept him under control.

To me, it does seem Dean Richard's time has come and gone.

To celebrate recreational marijuana becoming legal for sale and shops opening for business here in NJ yesterday, I predict Saints will win by 30 on Saturday......

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/gallagher-premierships-top-five-player-7001044

Interesting individual stats with 3 rounds to go.

Interesting how the individual stats don't really tell you much about which teams are where in the table. Tigers feature in most of the individual tables, but Saracens and Quins are fairly sporadic.

A big shout out to the largely unheralded Cadan Murley, though, who's snuck past Louis Lynagh to be handily placed in the try scoring charts. I'd not put it past him to overhaul McGuigan and Creevy now that the ground is hard and Quins are chasing a playoff spot.

Check out Bevan Rodd on the breakdown steals. Absolute pest the loosehead.

Here is the table gong into this weekend's action (thanks to the BBC for the table):

Position	Team	Played	Won	Lost	Drawn	For	Against	Pts Diff	Bonus	Points
1	Leicester Tigers	21	17	4	0	623	411	212	13	81
2	Saracens	21	15	5	1	682	401	281	15	77
3	Harlequins	21	14	7	0	550	451	99	16	72
4	Northampton Saints	21	12	9	0	629	540	89	15	63
5	Exeter Chiefs	22	12	10	0	504	456	48	14	62
6	Gloucester	21	11	9	1	543	490	53	16	62
7	London Irish	22	9	9	4	594	597	-3	14	58
8	Wasps	21	11	10	0	555	522	33	13	57
9	Sale	21	9	9	3	466	442	24	12	56
10	Bristol	21	7	14	0	488	587	-99	14	42
11	Newcastle Falcons	21	6	14	1	378	533	-155	6	32
12	Worcester Warriors	22	5	16	1	392	749	-357	8	30
13	Bath	21	4	16	1	407	632	-225	9	29

To me it is interesting to see such a clear break behind the top 3 and an equivalent break above the bottom 4, leaving a mass of mediocrity from 4 through 9.  Over the course of the season so far Leicester, Sarries, and Quins are the best teams in the league.  This season finishing top of the table is important because it gives a semi-final against any of the group in the middle.   I would think that despite Exeter having an off season by their standards, they would be the team in the middle group which might give more worries than the others.  And for the others, a playoff win against Leicester or Saracens which have to be one of those 'on their day' kind of win.   Saints, Gloucester, London Irish, Wasps and Sale can certainly beat them, but against the odds.  With the teams in contention, including some of the top teams, playing each other, the end of the season it is not so simple as it seems.....

Leicester have a fairly easy run-in with home against Bristol, at Newcastle, and home against Wasps.  Thrown into this is their Euro match against Leinster.    
Saracens are at Worcester, home for Saints, and at Gloucester.   
Quins have a difficult end of season at Saints, home for Gloucester, and at Exeter. 

Saints, in 4th for the moment, are completely in control of their destiny with games remaining against Quins and Sarries.  Win those and Saints are probably in, with their final match against Falcons at the Gardens.  Not remotely easy.
Exeter have only 2 games left and have games at Bristol and home against Quins.   
Gloucester are home to Bath, but then at Quins and home against Saracens.  
London Irish have what may the easiest run in with home games against Wasps and Worcester, then away to Bath.  
Wasps are at London Irish, home to Sale, and finish up at Leicester.
Sale also have a relatively easier end of season finishing home to Newcastle, at Wasps, and home to Bristol, but have a Euro match against Racing.  .  

On paper, it would seem LI have the best schedule of the group in the middle.  Saints have to earn 9-10 bonus points to be guaranteed of a playoff spot, and that will be difficult.  For everyone else, throw the chips in the air and see how they land, especially if Saints lose 2 out of 3.  
Who do you think will land in that 4th playoff spot?

So the most saints can get to is 78 if my maths is correct. That means we need a win and two bp's to make it impossible for them.

In some ways it's good for Quins. If we get a lbp or a win at Saints then 3rd place is probably sealed for us. But if we slip up we have Glos at home to make amends.

yappysnap, you are correct that Saints max is 78 points, but a win and 2 BPs only gives you 78 points as well. Quins currently have a 10 points better points difference than Saints, but if Saints win all three as they would need to, that is likely to be reversed, is Quins only have one win and two close defeats.

I wouldn't lose sleep over it though, I can only dream of Saints taking all 15 available points from those remaining fixtures. Sarries away is a tough fixture to win never mind take a bonus point.