Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

ps the Best leaders surround themselves with the best people.   Not so good leaders surround themselves with those that are not going to challenge them.  So maybe the reason why it appears that there is a poor selection of candidates is partly due to Boris Johnson.  Another reason may be that the leadership qualities and the general competence levels of elected mps has declined.

Sunak might end up siphoning off some votes if it helps her beat Boris I guess

Ultimately if MPs think it's dire enough to chance Boris now just wait until people start giving evidence on how he misled parliament

It would be supremely short-sighted of Tory MPs to choose Boris Johnson with the privileges committee looming. Which is why it wouldn't be a huge surprise if they did it. The reputation of the UK is that last thing on these people's minds.

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Can't be 100 stupid Tory MPs who would back Johnson, surely?

He's already got 17 backers and only 39 MPs have declared (318 left), so I'd say it looks likely. If Tory HQ doesn't want him to stand they'll have to specifically bar him.

Yeah, but the stupid ones always shout their mouths off first.

There are also reports of MPs saying they will resign if he gets back in and trigger by-elections.

Can certainly imagine that happening. From that angle I think I'd view Johnson winning as the best outcome, because the Tory Party could split, be unable to govern, and a GE happens. Johnson would probably believe it's possible to repeat this winter what he did in 2019 and win a thumping majority.

It's my view that his majority was very wide bit paper - thin.
To get Brexit over the. finishing line, a once in a lifetime situation.
People were not voting for his magical charms, most people by 2019 thought he was a complete cult. I doubt it very much that he still appeals to anyone except the most out of touch and most "I'm alright,Jack" southern pensioner.

Newsflash -The Conservative Party have decided to disband citing musical differences and wanting to spend more time with their families.Rumours of drug use, particularly hallucinogens, were denied by an official Conservative Party Spokesman.
It marks the end of the longest running soap opera in British history, bizarre and unbelievable narratives coupled with desperate cartoon character roles has led to decreasing public interest.

They should just make that lettuce PM.

Coming up to the weekend - Sunak on 96, Johnson on 68 and Mordaunt on 25. 168 MPs left to declare intention.

Job almost done for Sunak. He's got some notable MPs in his corner, but I think every cabinet minister who's stated their support so far (five in total) has backed Johnson.

Johnson should get 100+, but he'll have fewer MPs backing him than Sunak, so I'm curious to see what effect the 'indicative ballot' has if it goes that far, and how quick the Tories fall apart again in the event of him winning and becoming PM again.

Mordaunt's surely not getting 100.

Pr4wn wrote:They should just make that lettuce PM.

Leaf or Romaine?

Pr4wn wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:They should just make that lettuce PM.

Leaf or Romaine?

Has to be leaf, Romaine has yet to get a visa.

Rishi Sunak is expected to reject any offer by Boris Johnson to drop his leadership bid in return for a Cabinet job as two Tory big beasts mull over whether to strike a deal, writes Ben Riley-Smith, our Political Editor.

Going all the way to a members vote, then? Sunak has crossed 100, Johnson up to 70.

According to the BBC, Johnson on 46.

JuliusHMarx wrote:According to the BBC, Johnson on 46.

Lolz.

Have to say, for someone who has never supported the Tories (despite going to several conferences and knowing several of their MPs) you seem very excited at the prospect of Johnson's return.

A little off topic... but apparently Xi is stamping his authority on the Politburo.

Li Ke Qiang is no longer Premier... and he was one of the last remaining voices of reason in China and Hu Jintao (former President) was thrown out of a meeting just before.

So it seems, like Putin, Xi is clearing the decks of any potential dissenters.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Have to say, for someone who has never supported the Tories (despite going to several conferences and knowing several of their MPs) you seem very excited at the prospect of Johnson's return.

I've gone to several conferences as a guest and worked for several MPs, yes, not exclusively to the Tory Party, either.

I'm not sure where you've deduced any excitement, because I'm not feeling any. I've never been a supporter of Johnson, not now, not in 2019, not in 2016, never.

As said before, though, I think I'd rather Johnson wins because that could lead to several dozen Tory MPs resigning from the party, leaving the Tories unable to govern as they lose their majority, thereby forcing a GE this winter and leading to the Tories getting hammered at said GE and losing hundreds of seats. That's my desired outcome. I'm not sure the Tories would split so heavily under Sunak and a GE could be years away in that circumstance.

Lolz

Pal Joey wrote:A little off topic... but apparently Xi is stamping his authority on the Politburo.

Li Ke Qiang is no longer Premier... and he was one of the last remaining voices of reason in China and Hu Jintao (former President) was thrown out of a meeting just before.

So it seems, like Putin, Xi is clearing the decks of any potential dissenters.

In Britain China is too far away to be that concerned about - apart from stories about human rights violations against their Uyghar Muslim population and their threats over Taiwan.  However, as you are in Australia - then China I guess looms large on the horizon, because China and Australia are competitors over mining rights in island nations in the region plus China owning large parts of Australia (certain Australians happy to profit by selling to China).  

With Pelosi visiting Taiwan and Joe Biden saying the US will defend Taiwan against Chinese attack and stationing one of their military fleets in the area, it seems likely Taiwan could be the next area of conflict.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-military-presence-taiwan-china-pelosi-visit-1729902

The main reason why the EU and UK are now in a perilous economic situation is because of the sanctions they placed on Russia when Russian troops invaded Ukraine - Russians saying in defence of the Donbass area - the West saying an unprovoked invasion.  They justified those sanctions by saying it would prevent Russia from profitting from their invasion of Ukraine and would bring Russia to its knees economically and would likely lead to regime change in Russia.   Instead, as many people predicted, those sanctions impacted significantly more on Europe and the UK (consumers of cheap gas, oil and grain) than Russia (providers of cheap gas, oil and grain).  

In April when Russia and Ukraine were nearing a peace agreement, and the Russians pulled out their troops from around Kyiv as a goodwill gesture, Boris Johnson went to Kyiv, to try to block those peace agreements, offering Zelensky's Ukraine full support from the UK and US, and convincing him that this was a winnable war.  

The net result is that the UK and EU are in an ongoing economic war with Russia (and increasingly with neutral nations and those allying with Russia) and that is not going to end any time soon.  The UK and EU need to find alternative sources of energy, food and raw materials that Russia had supplied cheaply in bulk.  It seems that the UK, EU and US have been going around alternative suppliers around the world and hassling them saying they must increase their supply, must sell to them and must sell to them at a low price.

No name Bertie wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:Britain's national energy policy has been a shambles for some time.  Basically there was a rush to gas because burning natural gas releases less Carbon Dioxide than coal ....

Please can you explain this to me from a chemical, thermodynamic and energy yield point of view? Thanks.

C + O2 --> CO2
CH4 + 2O2 --> CO2 + 2H2O
There is net additional energy released when the carbon-hydrogen bonds are broken and the hydrogen is oxygenatedoxidised.

The amount of CO2 released per unit of energy produced can be found in the following:
https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/faq/how-much-carbon-dioxide-produced-when-different-fuels-are-burned

Thanks for this - I can do that bit. Not entirely clear why the differences between carbon-based fuels assuming complete oxidation. Suspect gas became popular because it's "clean" and, in general, central heating etc isn't something that works with coal. Little to do w/ it being any 'greener', albeit can see the pro-gas brigade waving that around now.

No name Bertie wrote:

Pal Joey wrote:A little off topic... but apparently Xi is stamping his authority on the Politburo.

Li Ke Qiang is no longer Premier... and he was one of the last remaining voices of reason in China and Hu Jintao (former President) was thrown out of a meeting just before.

So it seems, like Putin, Xi is clearing the decks of any potential dissenters.

In Britain China is too far away to be that concerned about - apart from stories about human rights violations against their Uyghar Muslim population and their threats over Taiwan.  However, as you are in Australia - then China I guess looms large on the horizon, because China and Australia are competitors over mining rights in island nations in the region plus China owning large parts of Australia (certain Australians happy to profit by selling to China).  

With Pelosi visiting Taiwan and Joe Biden saying the US will defend Taiwan against Chinese attack and stationing one of their military fleets in the area, it seems likely Taiwan could be the next area of conflict.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-military-presence-taiwan-china-pelosi-visit-1729902

We are not competitors in any island nations... or not for significant amounts of critical minerals at least. We sell (mostly coal and iron ore) to China but our high-grade coal exports was stopped (sanctioned)... 2 years ago by China. They then had to mine their own low quality heavily polluting coal (or import from Russia) which also coincided with a drop in heavy industrial production (steel products mainly) and now they've come begging for our good coal again just to keep the home fires burning... in their coal-fired energy plants. But the price of high quality coal has shot up and we're only sending very small quantities compared to previously.

China doesn't own much mining here either. A couple of facilities (ports) are leased and there is some peripheral investment in mining here - but this pales in comparison to investment by USA, UK, Europe and Japan... who have financed a lot of the massive LNG development in the NT. China is not a significant player due to the very stringent regulations of the FIRB (Foreign Investment Review Board).

The lion's share of Chinese investment in Australia is in residential property in the main urban areas (mostly unoccupied) so they only accrue capital growth and not large rental profits year by year. Begs the question: if the Chinese are solely about 'growth' and not 'profitability' then they are running at a loss both at home and offshore.

A similar thing happened with Japan in the 1990s. All growth but no profits made in the local economy. Then they started buying up properties in the US which said something about returns in their own country and set the alarm bells ringing. Then came the Big Crash. China is on a similar journey right now; however their problem is at least 10-fold... maybe even 25-fold?

No name Bertie wrote:The main reason why the EU and UK are now in a perilous economic situation is because of the sanctions they placed on Russia when Russian troops invaded Ukraine - Russians saying in defence of the Donbass area - the West saying an unprovoked invasion.  They justified those sanctions by saying it would prevent Russia from profitting from their invasion of Ukraine and would bring Russia to its knees economically and would likely lead to regime change in Russia.   Instead, as many people predicted, those sanctions impacted significantly more on Europe and the UK (consumers of cheap gas, oil and grain) than Russia (providers of cheap gas, oil and grain).  

Anyone with a couple of brain cells knew this, but that doesn't mean the responses to Putin's insanity shouldn't have happened.

No name Bertie wrote:In April when Russia and Ukraine were nearing a peace agreement, and the Russians pulled out their troops from around Kyiv as a goodwill gesture, Boris Johnson went to Kyiv, to try to block those peace agreements, offering Zelensky's Ukraine full support from the UK and US, and convincing him that this was a winnable war.  

 

No name Bertie wrote:The net result is that the UK and EU are in an ongoing economic war with Russia (and increasingly with neutral nations and those allying with Russia) and that is not going to end any time soon.  The UK and EU need to find alternative sources of energy, food and raw materials that Russia had supplied cheaply in bulk.  It seems that the UK, EU and US have been going around alternative suppliers around the world and hassling them saying they must increase their supply, must sell to them and must sell to them at a low price.

Some of this will take time. Get used to it.

Johnson's team claim 100 backers. Tory MPs instantly accuse them of lying. Well, it wouldn't be the first time.

Probably true. He's on 71 with 140 unknowns, so it's likely he's at the 100 mark.

Duty281 wrote:Probably true. He's on 71 with 140 unknowns, so it's likely he's at the 100 mark.

Could well be. But lying would be true to form, and clearly the in-fighting has already started.

Probably difficult to put a precise number on Boris' support. He probably has a lot of "provisional" support from MPs that would crack under not much pressure

GSC wrote:Probably difficult to put a precise number on Boris' support. He probably has a lot of "provisional" support from MPs that would crack under not much pressure

That's why Sunak's supporters are demanding, in the manner of a low-grade mafia, that Johnson publishes his full list of supporters.

Bit late to expect much honour or dignity from this mob

Anyhow if Boris was secure at 100 MPs he'd have declared for this race

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Probably difficult to put a precise number on Boris' support. He probably has a lot of "provisional" support from MPs that would crack under not much pressure

That's why Sunak's supporters are demanding, in the manner of a low-grade mafia, that Johnson publishes his full list of supporters.

Which in the manner of low-grade con artists, they can't, because they don't exist.

I mean Sunak is secure and he hasn't declared officially yet, principally because Johnson and Sunak are supposed to be having a meeting tonight, presumably where they'll try to thrash something out.

I can't see Johnson accepting a cabinet post under Sunak - he would view it as a demotion. But there might be a situation where Sunak agrees to serve under Johnson (again), with Johnson stepping aside and endorsing him in a couple of years, like Blair/Brown? Although with the Tories abysmal poll numbers that could be an unwise choice.

Difficult to know who would have the upper hand in negotiations. Johnson is presumably the members' favourite, so more likely to win under the rules; but Sunak commands more support amongst the MPs, which means he has a better chance of being able to unify the party and stay in the job for a decent interval of time.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Probably difficult to put a precise number on Boris' support. He probably has a lot of "provisional" support from MPs that would crack under not much pressure

That's why Sunak's supporters are demanding, in the manner of a low-grade mafia, that Johnson publishes his full list of supporters.

Which in the manner of low-grade con artists, they can't, because they don't exist.

You don't think Johnson has 100+ supporters?

I suspect 100 MPs have told him or a proxy they would vote for him. I don't think he has 100 votes though.

Ultimately I can't see a Boris led government lasting very long one way or another and that reality might be made clear to him. That and that this job is basically waiting to be turfed out at the next GE

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Probably difficult to put a precise number on Boris' support. He probably has a lot of "provisional" support from MPs that would crack under not much pressure

That's why Sunak's supporters are demanding, in the manner of a low-grade mafia, that Johnson publishes his full list of supporters.

Which in the manner of low-grade con artists, they can't, because they don't exist.

You don't think Johnson has 100+ supporters?

Not yet no. I think if they had they would publish them and announce he's in the race. Why not? Nothing to lose by doing that and everything to gain. I think he's close enough to try to do a deal with Sunak, on the assumption he may well, but not definitely, get to 100.

GSC wrote:I suspect 100 MPs have told him or a proxy they would vote for him. I don't think he has 100 votes though.

Ultimately I can't see a Boris led government lasting very long one way or another and that reality might be made clear to him. That and that this job is basically waiting to be turfed out at the next GE

This.

I think they will try to convince him that his return will make things even worse for the Tories (which it will - I think Duty and I agree on that). I also think he will, in his absolute arrogance, not believe that, they won't do a deal, Boris will reach 100 in the next 2 days and the Tory membership will vote him in.
After that it's anyone's guess if he lasts more than 3 months, but if he's still there for the next GE, they will lose by a bigger margin that if Sunak took over.

Obviously that assumes that e.g. Russia don't nuke the UK or something drastic like that.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

GSC wrote:Probably difficult to put a precise number on Boris' support. He probably has a lot of "provisional" support from MPs that would crack under not much pressure

That's why Sunak's supporters are demanding, in the manner of a low-grade mafia, that Johnson publishes his full list of supporters.

Which in the manner of low-grade con artists, they can't, because they don't exist.

You don't think Johnson has 100+ supporters?

Not yet no. I think if they had they would publish them and announce he's in the race. Why not? Nothing to lose by doing that and everything to gain. I think he's close enough to try to do a deal with Sunak, on the assumption he may well, but not definitely, get to 100.

Well first of all the nominations are allowed to be secret (apart from the proposer and seconder), so there may be supporters who wish to remain anonymous, just as there are those who loudly trumpet their support for Johnson. Secondly, there are some MPs in the Tory Party who aren't permitted to disclose their intentions in public. And those who are public will be browbeaten by Sunak's lot.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

GSC wrote:I suspect 100 MPs have told him or a proxy they would vote for him. I don't think he has 100 votes though.

Ultimately I can't see a Boris led government lasting very long one way or another and that reality might be made clear to him. That and that this job is basically waiting to be turfed out at the next GE

This.

I think they will try to convince him that his return will make things even worse for the Tories (which it will - I think Duty and I agree on that). I also think he will, in his absolute arrogance, not believe that, they won't do a deal, Boris will reach 100 in the next 2 days and the Tory membership will vote him in.
After that it's anyone's guess if he lasts more than 3 months, but if he's still there for the next GE, they will lose by a bigger margin that if Sunak took over.

Obviously that assumes that e.g. Russia don't nuke the UK or something drastic like that.

Yes, I believe we agree on that. That's largely the key sticking point for me - if Johnson accepts the hopelessness of his returning as PM, then Sunak wins as Johnson retreats from the race. I believe Tory HQ will also be pressuring Johnson in this way.

If Johnson believes he can turn it around then it'll go to the members. I don't think it's cast-iron that Johnson wins with the members, particularly with the insecurity of the voting process. I wonder if some endorsements in Sunak's favour, such as Barclay, will sway Johnson's mind.

Just been listening to a Tory member on LBC via Twitter- basically a racist who won't vote for Sunak because "he isn't even British". These are the people who will decide our next PM. It is any wonder I despair for this country?

It's anonymous but if Sunaks and Mordaunts supporters are public it becomes fairly clear

I mean, if he's elected it shows the public unequivocally that he was removed not because he was a threat to the Tory party and nothing else.

It's also funny that the lazy Muppet was on holiday, his third since he was removed, and during a time when parliament was sitting.

The UK, as I've said before, is an international laughing stock.

No deal has been struck between Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak this morning, as the former prime minister insisted he was still "going for it". Mr Johnson told his MP supporters on an 8am call he was "still going for it" and not pulling out amid calls for a deal between him and Mr Sunak. He urged them to hit the phones and one person on call said there was "no doubt" he was still running.

Zahawi backs Johnson, but Baker backs Sunak instead, and Baker can be influential among the ERG group. Mordaunt still thinks she'll reach 100.

Rees-Mogg refuses to state that he thinks Johnson has 100.

General consensus seems to be that he doesn't yet have the 100 and his lie may have backfired as its reminded people that he can't help lying.

Sunak formally announces his run. The criminal talks about how there will be integrity and professionalism under his government, and how he is the man who can fix the economy, after being the one who trashed it in the first place. Sunak will also be firm in his convictions, which are presumably to raise taxes and choke economic growth.

Either he wins by coronation, or Johnson and his 100 make life difficult for him.

You mean the criminal Johnson?

Yes, they are both criminals and liars, who should be far from public office, and are the symptoms of our broken political system.

Duty281 wrote:Yes, they are both criminals and liars, who should be far from public office, and are the symptoms of our broken political system.

Yes, an example of why I think humanity is going backwards.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Just been listening to a Tory member on LBC via Twitter- basically a racist who won't vote for Sunak because "he isn't even British". These are the people who will decide our next PM. It is any wonder I despair for this country?

Just got caught up with this. It truly boggles the mind some people still think like this, and he had the temerity to deny it when he was called out on it.

And his vote is worth the same as ours.

Duty281 wrote:Yes, they are both criminals and liars, who should be far from public office, and are the symptoms of our broken political system.

Come on. If this were standard practice, there'd be no-one in Government (or opposition) at all.

IMO, Sunak has orders of magnitude more integrity than Johnson, the latter of whom has made a lifetime of lying, shagging and corruption.

Samo wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Just been listening to a Tory member on LBC via Twitter- basically a racist who won't vote for Sunak because "he isn't even British". These are the people who will decide our next PM. It is any wonder I despair for this country?

Just got caught up with this.  It truly boggles the mind some people still think like this, and he had the temerity to deny it when he was called out on it.

And his vote is worth the same as ours.

Some will always think like this. How old was that Tory member? Some of this is generational and will wash out over time. Look at where we are now cf., say, the 1800s.

His vote should be the same as ours, painful though that might be. Are you suggesting it shouldn't be?

One thing that doesn't help re. convincing this sort of person that they're in the wrong with opinions such as that is berating them and calling them thick etc. It just entrenches their view and leads to Brexit, Trump etc.

Trying to do a deal with Mourdaunt isn't exactly a massive sign that Boris has the numbers he needs