Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

ps the Best leaders surround themselves with the best people.   Not so good leaders surround themselves with those that are not going to challenge them.  So maybe the reason why it appears that there is a poor selection of candidates is partly due to Boris Johnson.  Another reason may be that the leadership qualities and the general competence levels of elected mps has declined.

Can't be 100 stupid Tory MPs who would back Johnson, surely?

I'd be amazed if Johnson got to be PM again but the way things been going anything could happen! As I said a couple days ago, lots of MPs and members now wishing they hadn't got rid of him in first place although his position was becoming pretty untenable.

JuliusHMarx wrote:The pound has shot up against the dollar. No doubt due to a number of external factors.

It's the certainty, of course.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Can't be 100 stupid Tory MPs who would back Johnson, surely?

He's already got 17 backers and only 39 MPs have declared (318 left), so I'd say it looks likely. If Tory HQ doesn't want him to stand they'll have to specifically bar him.

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Can't be 100 stupid Tory MPs who would back Johnson, surely?

He's already got 17 backers and only 39 MPs have declared (318 left), so I'd say it looks likely. If Tory HQ doesn't want him to stand they'll have to specifically bar him.

Yeah, but the stupid ones always shout their mouths off first.

There are also reports of MPs saying they will resign if he gets back in and trigger by-elections.

One has said that he would defect to Labour if Johnson returns as leader.

Needless to say, the UK is an international laughing stock. Has been for quite some time.

100 MP threshold confirmed, deadline is Monday. If there's only one candidate they'll be PM without asking the membership and it could be as early as Monday. If there's two candidates the membership will be asked to vote online and MPs will take a non-binding, 'indicative ballot'. Presumably if there's three the one with the fewest backers will drop out. The strong hint is they want MPs to sort it out in-house without needing a members vote.

Amazing how quick they can sort it this time, seeing as how it took nearly two months in the summer!

If it goes to a members vote the last poll of Tory members indicated Johnson was leading on 32%, Sunak 23% and Mordaunt 9%, but that poll included many other candidates who won't be standing.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Can't be 100 stupid Tory MPs who would back Johnson, surely?

He's already got 17 backers and only 39 MPs have declared (318 left), so I'd say it looks likely. If Tory HQ doesn't want him to stand they'll have to specifically bar him.

Yeah, but the stupid ones always shout their mouths off first.

There are also reports of MPs saying they will resign if he gets back in and trigger by-elections.

Can certainly imagine that happening. From that angle I think I'd view Johnson winning as the best outcome, because the Tory Party could split, be unable to govern, and a GE happens. Johnson would probably believe it's possible to repeat this winter what he did in 2019 and win a thumping majority.

What happens if no MP's get 100 members to support them?

King Charles comes in and rules as a medieval monarch. Couldn't be worse.

100 MPs have decided - Johnson on 49, Sunak 35, Mordaunt 16. 257 to go. No actual confirmed candidates yet, but Johnson and Sunak seem well on course to meet the 100 threshold should they choose to stand. Mordaunt struggling.

Sunak 8/11 on the betting, Johnson into 9/4. Mordaunt at 4/1.

Boris Johnson played an active role in getting Britain into this economic mess.   The reason why he had to resign was because of his refusal to accept good advice and forcing through his own decisions.  This came as a sort of final straw when it was discovered he was a hypocrite - not following enforceable rules he and his entourage put into place for others.   That is he had to resign for the way he conducted government - which was part of his character - rather than his disastrous decision making.

With regard to Liz Truss - it was blooming well obvious she was not capable of running the country.  Now I hear from reading the above that she was voted in because she promised tax breaks for the Tory membership.

Duty281 wrote:

King Charles comes in and rules as a medieval monarch. Couldn't be worse.

100 MPs have decided - Johnson on 49, Sunak 35, Mordaunt 16. 257 to go. No actual confirmed candidates yet, but Johnson and Sunak seem well on course to meet the 100 threshold should they choose to stand. Mordaunt struggling.

Sunak 8/11 on the betting, Johnson into 9/4. Mordaunt at 4/1.

You mean the criminal Johnson and the criminal Sunak?

Boris feels like the absolute desperation option. But any MP that looks at the last GE and thinks that's replicable is delusional. The landscape is vastly different, and Boris is starting from a negative standing, before he has to face an inquiry for misleading parliament

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

King Charles comes in and rules as a medieval monarch. Couldn't be worse.

100 MPs have decided - Johnson on 49, Sunak 35, Mordaunt 16. 257 to go. No actual confirmed candidates yet, but Johnson and Sunak seem well on course to meet the 100 threshold should they choose to stand. Mordaunt struggling.

Sunak 8/11 on the betting, Johnson into 9/4. Mordaunt at 4/1.

You mean the criminal Johnson and the criminal Sunak?

Yes, those people. Whether either wants the job with the Tories sinking to 14% (!) in one poll remains to be seen and we should find out today. Imagine if no one stood...

Sunak and Mordaunt have been quiet so far, but Johnson has been actively urging MPs to support him. Most likely outcome seems either a Johnson coronation or Johnson v Sunak in the members vote, which you'd think Johnson would be favourite for.

I guess if Boris clears 100 MPs, Sunak may just agree to take the chancellor job and get the band back together.

For however long a second Boris run would last

Johnson will be gone as an MP by the end of the year. Giving him the keys to No. 10 back would be the final nail in the coffin for the Tory party, and theres already plenty nails in it.

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

King Charles comes in and rules as a medieval monarch. Couldn't be worse.

100 MPs have decided - Johnson on 49, Sunak 35, Mordaunt 16. 257 to go. No actual confirmed candidates yet, but Johnson and Sunak seem well on course to meet the 100 threshold should they choose to stand. Mordaunt struggling.

Sunak 8/11 on the betting, Johnson into 9/4. Mordaunt at 4/1.

You mean the criminal Johnson and the criminal Sunak?

Yes, those people. Whether either wants the job with the Tories sinking to 14% (!) in one poll remains to be seen and we should find out today. Imagine if no one stood...

Sunak and Mordaunt have been quiet so far, but Johnson has been actively urging MPs to support him. Most likely outcome seems either a Johnson coronation or Johnson v Sunak in the members vote, which you'd think Johnson would be favourite for.

Yes, the members' vote seems to repeatedly show us that Tory members are the kind of people this country should be ashamed of, if you're into that sort of nationalistic stuff.

It's currently boiling my p!ss that newsreaders and political reporters are talking about Johnson being on holiday in the Caribbean as if that's a perfectly acceptable thing for a sitting MP to be doing.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

King Charles comes in and rules as a medieval monarch. Couldn't be worse.

100 MPs have decided - Johnson on 49, Sunak 35, Mordaunt 16. 257 to go. No actual confirmed candidates yet, but Johnson and Sunak seem well on course to meet the 100 threshold should they choose to stand. Mordaunt struggling.

Sunak 8/11 on the betting, Johnson into 9/4. Mordaunt at 4/1.

You mean the criminal Johnson and the criminal Sunak?

Yes, those people. Whether either wants the job with the Tories sinking to 14% (!) in one poll remains to be seen and we should find out today. Imagine if no one stood...

Sunak and Mordaunt have been quiet so far, but Johnson has been actively urging MPs to support him. Most likely outcome seems either a Johnson coronation or Johnson v Sunak in the members vote, which you'd think Johnson would be favourite for.

Yes, the members' vote seems to repeatedly show us that Tory members are the kind of people this country should be ashamed of, if you're into that sort of nationalistic stuff.

Blows my tiny mind that this country could conceivably have that philandering, dishonest, juvenile spam head back as PM. Seriously, what is this country becoming. He is a pathological liar. It is just madness, utter f*cking madness.

Mind the windows Tino. wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

King Charles comes in and rules as a medieval monarch. Couldn't be worse.

100 MPs have decided - Johnson on 49, Sunak 35, Mordaunt 16. 257 to go. No actual confirmed candidates yet, but Johnson and Sunak seem well on course to meet the 100 threshold should they choose to stand. Mordaunt struggling.

Sunak 8/11 on the betting, Johnson into 9/4. Mordaunt at 4/1.

You mean the criminal Johnson and the criminal Sunak?

Yes, those people. Whether either wants the job with the Tories sinking to 14% (!) in one poll remains to be seen and we should find out today. Imagine if no one stood...

Sunak and Mordaunt have been quiet so far, but Johnson has been actively urging MPs to support him. Most likely outcome seems either a Johnson coronation or Johnson v Sunak in the members vote, which you'd think Johnson would be favourite for.

Yes, the members' vote seems to repeatedly show us that Tory members are the kind of people this country should be ashamed of, if you're into that sort of nationalistic stuff.

Blows my tiny mind that this country could conceivably have that philandering, dishonest, juvenile spam head back as PM. Seriously, what is this country becoming. He is a pathological liar. It is just madness, utter f*cking madness.

It's one of the many reasons Britain is magnificent!!

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:It's currently boiling my p!ss that newsreaders and political reporters are talking about Johnson being on holiday in the Caribbean as if that's a perfectly acceptable thing for a sitting MP to be doing.

Is there much steam coming out?

I'm at a complete loss too watching it all unfold - and can see why good people like you and Tino are at your wits end.

I suppose Sunak the Capybara must realise he could well be the one holding the poisoned challis up until the next GE but if Johnson did sleaze his way back into No. 10 (just the thought of that hurts my brain) then surely it would be like watching someone slowly burn twice? I'm not convinced anyone has the appetite or patience to have to go through all that again. Sometimes it's better to bring it to a head, just call an election and start afresh again.

We changed governments here after nearly 10 years of 'conservative' rule (the low-lying, small target opposition just scraped in) and the country hasn't fallen apart yet. "Give them a go" seemed to be the right thing to do. If they fail; then at least they can say they tried an alternative approach.

Everyone was just so bloody tired of the same old blabbering faces and voices... so it was quite pleasant to hear a new and different bunch of idiots try and explain what they are trying to do and how they will do it - and then start to continually blame the former Government for all the mess they've inherited when the situation is revealed to be a lot more difficult to manage than expected.

Trouble is if Labour get in they will be worse for tearing themselves apart. Centralists like Starmer be having to kowtow to far left and unions as that's where a lot of the support and cash comes from. Just need to look at strikes going on in UK in railways, postal service, barristers etc etc to see the utter shambles they are. Maybe if there's a GE and Labour get in then suddenly strikes called off but there will always be the underlying feeling that the clowns in likes of Momentum etc always be pulling the strings.

Pal Joey wrote:We changed governments here after nearly 10 years of 'conservative' rule (the low-lying, small target opposition just scraped in) and the country hasn't fallen apart yet. "Give them a go" seemed to be the right thing to do. If they fail; then at least they can say they tried an alternative approach.

Everyone was just so bloody tired of the same old blabbering faces and voices...

I think this is where a lot of people are here, even those who usually vote Conservative. It's just not credible for the party that's overseen the UK's performance over the last 12 years to say they're the party to fix things.

Fundamentally, even though it might be good for the opposition parties if Johnson makes a comeback, I just don't want to see or hear him ever again. He's a braying toff, and a big f*ck-off liar.

mountain man wrote:Trouble is if Labour get in they will be worse for tearing themselves apart. Centralists like Starmer be having to kowtow to far left and unions as that's where a lot of the support and cash comes from. Just need to look at strikes going on in UK in railways, postal service, barristers etc etc to see the utter shambles they are. Maybe if there's a GE and Labour get in then suddenly strikes called off but there will always be the underlying feeling that the clowns in likes of Momentum etc always be pulling the strings.

Yeah exactly. That's what's already beginning to happen here. Strikes across similar sectors here too.

The main political ideologies here:

LNP (Liberal Conservative - Nationals 'old Country Party' Coalition) are for:
'rational' economic management, private funding, high growth, low taxes, social conservatism, anti-union, more freedom of expression, less ideology, spend more on defence, anti-Republican and 'jobs for your mates'.

ALP (used to rely on Greens and Independents for political support but less so now. In fact a significant rift is forming already) are for:
freedom of association, community partnerships, collective bargaining, heavily funded by Unions, higher taxes (for the rich mainly), increased spending on health, education, social services, more 'progressive' socially and culturally, less on defence, tend towards a Republic and.... 'jobs for your mates'.

But the LNP's rational economic management went out the window with the onset of covid and the need to spend, spend and spend. So they were mocked by the ALP (even though the ALP supported the spending measures... and even proposed more) and also tormented the LNP over higher taxes (historically adjusted). Therefore the incumbents didn't have their usual "better economic managers and lower taxes" mantra to fall back on and couldn't defend themselves.

Then the ALP went small target (matching and sometimes going further than the government's policies only slightly) but generally the same. Probably the LNP's biggest 'mistake' was committing to global carbon emissions reduction targets - which gave the ALP the upper hand to push for massive renewable targets themselves... but still much lower than the Teals (independents with very narrow policy objectives and not much else) and of course the Greens who are completely off the scale when it comes to renewable targets.

Now this is all coming home to roost for the new Government. They might get some of their new legislation through in the lower house but could well run into major obstacles in the upper house. This is when it will get really nasty and they (ALP, Greens, Teals) will start tearing each other apart.

And then the horse trading and deals will have to be made behind closed doors of course, which will no doubt expose them to all sorts of Integrity Issues (which was also one of the main campaign platforms for the ALP, Greens and Teals ironically) and so the cycle goes around again... but from the other side of politics this time.

Labour withdraw the whip from another low-grade MP.

Both Sunak and Johnson are over 50 backers, but Sunak has now nudged ahead. Wallace will soon be telling us if he's running or possibly who he's backing.

mountain man wrote:Trouble is if Labour get in they will be worse for tearing themselves apart. Centralists like Starmer be having to kowtow to far left and unions as that's where a lot of the support and cash comes from. Just need to look at strikes going on in UK in railways, postal service, barristers etc etc to see the utter shambles they are. Maybe if there's a GE and Labour get in then suddenly strikes called off but there will always be the underlying feeling that the clowns in likes of Momentum etc always be pulling the strings.

It is inevitable but will take time (could be a decade) to manifest - which is why we need to change governments every few years and why we need effective oppositions. I do think Starmer is capable of holding his party together for a while. I think not electing Labour for the above reasons when we currently have an ungovernable sh!t show in place is pretty dumb.

Duty281 wrote:Labour withdraw the whip from another low-grade MP.

Both Sunak and Johnson are over 50 backers, but Sunak has now nudged ahead.  Wallace will soon be telling us if he's running or possibly who he's backing.

Quite a lot of the Boris backers on the Guido list are anonymous for the time being. One of the people actually named as a Boris backer has called it rubbish. Interesting to see how realistic their numbers for him are.

Reports that he has offered Sunak (who he was desperate to torpedo last time) a partnership don’t scream of a man who is confident of getting the 100…

Wallace rules himself out and gives a (tepid) endorsement of Boris

Wallace confirms he won't run (because of all those skeletons), but is leaning towards supporting Johnson, which would be quite a big endorsement. Sounds like he's open to offers if Sunak wishes to give him a prestigious post.

JDizzle wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Labour withdraw the whip from another low-grade MP.

Both Sunak and Johnson are over 50 backers, but Sunak has now nudged ahead.  Wallace will soon be telling us if he's running or possibly who he's backing.

Quite a lot of the Boris backers on the Guido list are anonymous for the time being. One of the people actually named as a Boris backer has called it rubbish. Interesting to see how realistic their numbers for him are.

Reports that he has offered Sunak (who he was desperate to torpedo last time) a partnership don’t scream of a man who is confident of getting the 100…

Guido was pretty spot on during the summer, in fairness. I think Johnson gets over 100 if the ERG fall in behind him.

Wallace will help convince some moderates if he fully goes for Boris.

Staggering (yet predictable) to see such a lack of principle in our politicians, and indeed, many of the population. Surely it's obvious now why I have such a lack of faith in our species.

lostinwales wrote:

mountain man wrote:Trouble is if Labour get in they will be worse for tearing themselves apart. Centralists like Starmer be having to kowtow to far left and unions as that's where a lot of the support and cash comes from. Just need to look at strikes going on in UK in railways, postal service, barristers etc etc to see the utter shambles they are. Maybe if there's a GE and Labour get in then suddenly strikes called off but there will always be the underlying feeling that the clowns in likes of Momentum etc always be pulling the strings.

It is inevitable but will take time (could be a decade) to manifest   which is why we need to change governments every few years and why we need effective oppositions. I do think Starmer is capable of holding his party together for a while. I think not electing Labour for the above reasons when we currently have an ungovernable sh!t show in place is pretty dumb.

This in bold. Always has been one of my beliefs : whichever party is in office , it tends to decay over time and needs a spell in opposition to recalibrate , get rid of the dead wood , etc.

Somewhat amplified in this particular case because for a number of reasons this lot have completely lost it. Unfortunately I doubt they will be up for calling an election when they have (theoretically) two years to try and turn public opinion around ; so hopefully there are enough MPs left with sufficient brains and balls to make sure the previous charlatan doesn't get back - and perhaps come up with a leader who can refrain from totally destroying what is left of the national economy and reputation...

Britain's national energy policy has been a shambles for some time.  Basically there was a rush to gas because burning natural gas releases less Carbon Dioxide than coal - of which Britain and Europe have lots and lots of it remaining - but impossible to use because of the much spoken about impending climate armageddon.  So Britain along with the EU decided to become more and more dependent on cheap Russian gas - against the wishes of the USA.   Our political class now blame Putin for our energy crisis rather than accepting any responsibility themselves - there seems to be a political and media consensus over this issue.

Britain isn't really, but when supply was removed from the market, the price of alternative sources goes up.

Something in perhaps not being so dependent on one source but Putin starting this war and general profiteering of remaining sources comes ahead of that imo

All you need to know is the Tories are currently banging on about whats "best for the party". Screw whats best for the country.

Also worth nothing that Johnson is currently on holiday in the Caribbean whilst Parliament is sitting - during a time of national crisis no less. It truly baffles how anyone can think he is the right choice, only the chronically hard of thinking or those desperate to cling onto their seats.

Polling expert Professor Sit John Curtice told Nick Ferrari on LBC this morning that (In so many words) it doesnt matter who the Tories elect, the gaps are so wide the damage is done and Labour are still on course for a majority GE win. Some polls have Labour infront by 39 points.

No name Bertie wrote:Britain's national energy policy has been a shambles for some time.  Basically there was a rush to gas because burning natural gas releases less Carbon Dioxide than coal - of which Britain and Europe have lots and lots of it remaining - but impossible to use because of the much spoken about impending climate armageddon.  So Britain along with the EU decided to become more and more dependent on cheap Russian gas - against the wishes of the USA.   Our political class now blame Putin for our energy crisis rather than accepting any responsibility themselves - there seems to be a political and media consensus over this issue.

Please can you explain this to me from a chemical, thermodynamic and energy yield point of view? Thanks.

Johnson getting the cabinet in his corner, with Rees-Mogg, Clarke and (probably) Wallace behind him. Seems little doubt that both Johnson and Sunak will cross the 100 threshold, and there's unlikely to be a third candidate.

How Johnson and Sunak sort out the leadership between them is another matter. You would think Johnson has the upper hand with the members, so the ball might be in his court, but the integrity of the voting process and validity of Tory members means this advantage may be somewhat blurred.

Sunak 8/11. Johnson 11/8. Expect Johnson to be favourite soon.

The pound has fallen further against the dollar on Friday and was trading below $1.11 in the early afternoon.

Sterling is down 1.4% against the dollar today. Uncertainty in Westminster is also weighing on the pound today, currency strategist Jane Foley told the BBC.

"While sterling rallied yesterday on Truss's resignation, I think investors have realised today that it's not a guarantee that we'll get a market-friendly outcome from the Conservative leadership contest," she says.

All that uncertainty.

All this is going to make a great TV drama in years to come.

Hunt is the kingmaker here.

Boris would just be beyond comical. Can't make any kind of argument that he would be in the national interest.

GSC wrote:Boris would just be beyond comical. Can't make any kind of argument that he would be in the national interest.

I've seen some awful governments and opposition over the years but can't remember one as monumentally stupid, shambolic and talentless as this bunch.

The country badly needs an adult who understands what they're doing after Truss.

The Tory party nominate someone who views a war as a chance to act out his Churchill fantasies

Looks like it's between Sunak and remarkably Johnson which is astounding. I suspect Sunak out of the two will "win" but be a bonkers scenario if Boris gets back in and so soon after being ousted. If this was a film plot everyone would dismiss it as too far fetched.
Putting aside the political, financial and reputational situation it's a compelling run of events for sure.

navyblueshorts wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:Britain's national energy policy has been a shambles for some time.  Basically there was a rush to gas because burning natural gas releases less Carbon Dioxide than coal ....

Please can you explain this to me from a chemical, thermodynamic and energy yield point of view? Thanks.

C + O2 --> CO2
CH4 + 2O2 --> CO2 + 2H2O
There is net additional energy released when the hydrogen bonds are broken and the hydrogen is oxygenated.

The amount of CO2 released per unit of energy produced can be found in the following:
https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/faq/how-much-carbon-dioxide-produced-when-different-fuels-are-burned

If you really want a laugh, how about this, as relayed by Beth Rigby:

'For his supporters, Mr Johnson is the one with the mandate and the party's best hope. When I put it to one of them that it would be messy to stick the man back in who had recently been kicked out, they admitted "it's not easy" but also said: "He'll bring a message of humility. The point is that we are not united, but he will try to unite and show contrition."'

https://news.sky.com/story/next-prime-minister-uk-latest-boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-truss-mordaunt-12593360

Mordaunt has formally announced her run, or rather sprint, for the leadership. The first to officially do so.

She's only up to 21 MPs with 201 unknowns, so it'll be quite an ask to get 100 from here.

Seems to be the Ill stick with Hunts plan pitch.

I guess she just has to make the final 2.