URC Looking ahead 24/25 Season

Opening 6 rounds and looking at each of the fixture lists to see how the table might look before the November internationals - post your opening league standings after 6 rounds below.  Worth keeping in mind South African team will probably be a little weaker in this period due to the Rugby Championship games and the likely outcome that some of their big name stars will probably need to be rested as they would have missed pre season to some degree.  

Scarlets - Benetton (A), Cardiff (H), Connacht (H), Cardiff (A), Bulls (H), Zebre (H)
Note:- With 4 home fixtures they need to start well.  Not the toughest start to their campaign although granted they only face 1 SA side in that period which could hurt them later on when those teams are at full strength.  Plus the one they do have (Bulls) is not that affected by call ups and given their form last year will be a challenge to overcome.  Can't see them beating Benetton in the opener but they probably do need to win those 4 home games.  Peel has strengthened his pack this year as I think he has realized without improvement there he has no chance.  

Dragons - Ospreys (H), Leinster (A), Sharks (H), Lions (H), Benetton (H), Connacht (A)
Note:- Again 4 home fixtures.  Recruitment in the pack wasn't great in the summer.  We seem to have a bigger squad than the other 3 regions but given we can only name 23 guys each week that surplus may not do us a lot of good.  Obvious weaknesses are the tight 5 and aside from Cummings it's largely unchanged.  Safe to say our away fixtures look tricky but at least we have Sharks early so I don't see them coming with a full first team.  We probably need a good start with 3 wins but I can't see us getting more than 1 or 2 realistically.

Cardiff - Zebre (H), Scarlets (A), Glasgow (H), Scarlets (H), Edinburgh (A), Ulster (H)
Note:- Standard 3H3A fixtures as most have to start.  Zebre and Scarlets are totally beatable and with Ulster and Glasgow at home they could get one of those.  Safe bet is 3 wins though.  They have added to the front 5 although how any of those guys will do is hard to say.  No real names in the bunch.  

Ospreys - Dragons (A), Stormers (H), Munster (A), Bulls (H), Ulster (A), Edinburgh (H)
Note:- Probably the hardest start for any of the welsh regions.  Don't see them doing anything with Ulster & Munster.  Bulls wont be affected by call ups.  Stormers will be so could be beatable.  Should stomp Dragons and Edinburgh though.  2 wins probably a good outcome although 3 may be possible.  Moderate signings here but Booth does have a good track record.  Think they will still be a solid set piece team.

Munster - Connacht (H), Zebre (A), Ospreys (H), Leinster (A), Stormers (A), Sharks (A)
Note:-  4 away fixtures to begin with.  3 of those look very hard games for them.  I do think they will beat Connacht, Zebre & Ospreys though.  Some understated signings but Burns could be a real good one for them.  They had a already descent side to begin so probably have been fairly shrewd in the transfer market.

Leinster - Edinburgh (A), Dragons (H) Benetton (A), Munster (H), Connacht (A), Lions (H)
Note:- Hard to gage how they will fare partly because they win more games with their B side than they should at times.  They will likely win all 3 home games to keep supporters happy and knowing them could win 2 of the 3 away games.  3 big name signings but I actually think Leinster have a potential flaw in their team.  Slimani was a great scrummaging prop in his prime but I dont think he is quite the player he was.  My question is will he thrive or be found out?  He does have one of the best packs in the world behind him so to be fair he does have plenty of support.  But a weakness at 3 could turn out to be a real problem for Leinster as Furlong can't play the whole season.  interesting to see how it unfolds.

Ulster - Glasgow (H), Lions (A), Bulls (A), Connacht (H), Ospreys (H), Cardiff (A)
Note:- 3H & 3A but the nature of some of those look daunting.  Glasgow always seem to travel well to them and have run them close there plenty of times at Ravenhill.  I can see Ulster losing that one because Glasgow's squad looks really good this year.  Bad away draw to SA could see them losing all 3 openers.  That said they can beat the next 3.  Safe bet would put them at 2-3 wins.  Mostly promoted from Academy so only 2 new additions.  Aidan Morgan's start to his season will play a key roll in their fortunes I suspect.  

Connacht - Munster (A), Sharks (H), Scarlets (A), Ulster (A), Leinster (H), Dragons (H)
Note:-  To me that's a nasty start to the season.  Some dangerous sides at home and not the easiest away fixtures either.  They probably should win Dragons but Scarlets and Sharks will both pose problems I think. 3 derbies as well so any results there will depend how stronger sides those other Irish sides are putting out.  They have done well against Leinster at home in recent seasons but that is partly due to weaker sides getting sent there.  Given it's so early in the year I'm not sure sides will be willing to lose any games that early.  Josh Ioane is probably their biggest signing.  Where and how they fit him into that side I'm unsure about.

Edinburgh - Leinster (H), Bulls (A), Lions (A), Stormers (H), Cardiff (H), Ospreys (A)
Note:- Bit of a weird on this.  On paper this list looks pretty dangerous to start with.  But catching Leinster early at home could be a blessing.  The SA away leg isn't great for them this early.  But they could totally win those last 3 games.  Hill, Bradbury & Moses are all good signings so should improve their 23.  Everitt I think will be under a bit under pressure to start getting some results so I do expect them to start the season with intent early and hope to catch some of the better sides out.  Realistically though 2 wins is probably what I would be betting on here.

Glasgow - Ulster (A), Benetton (H), Cardiff (A), Zebre (H), Sharks (A), Stormers (A)
Note:-  Just 2 home games to start for Glasgow.  They will win both those games for sure.  I suspect they will target Ulster & Cardiff.  Anything in the SA leg will be a bonus.  I'd say 4 wins out of 6 from them.  The majority of their signings are in the tight 5 making them stronger there.  Hastings at 10 is also potentially a great signing for them assuming they can get him fit and playing like he did before he left.

Benetton - Scarlets (H), Glasgow (A), Leinster (H), Sharks (H), Dragons (A) Bulls (H)
Note:- 4 home games they will need to start well no doubt if they want a top 8 finish.  I dont see them beating Glasgow away but at home they could do well in all of those.  Leinster might not send over their best team either.  Dragons are beatable as well.  4-5 win start could be on the cards here.  I do think they will be a touch weaker than last year as they lost some good players and the guys coming in are not of the same level with the exception of Lynagh.

Zebre - Cardiff (A), Munster (H), Stormers (H), Glasgow (A), Lions (H), Scarlets (A)
Note:- Got to feel for Zebre a bit.  Every team in the league will be targeting them as win games given their normal record in the league.  If they did get a win you would think Scarlets or Cardiff probably the only real chance for them.  Think its probably zero wins though.  Not much added in the summer either so their squad has probably not improved.  They do have some very good youngsters and players though.  And I like the way they try to play.  If they can improve their error rate they might start causing teams a bit more of a problem.

Bulls - Stomers (A), Edinburgh (H), Ulster (H), Ospreys (A), Scarlets (A), Benetton (A)
Note:- just 2 home games in the opening rounds.  I do expect them to win both those.  Stormers have a good record against Bulls at home so that is probably a loss but there is a slight glimmer given stormers will miss some stars for this one and Bulls may not be that affected.  Still think they will lose narrowly though.  Rest of those away fixtures they could all win. probably have them at 4 wins.  Nothing major in terms of additions but they have added to tight 5 again which they already are strong in.

Lions - Sharks (A), Ulster (H), Edinburgh (H), Dragons (A), Zebre (A), Leinster (A)
Note:- also 2 home games.  Lost some key players in the off season.  Expecting them to be a lot weaker this year as a result.  Probably only going to win 2 games in that lineup.

Sharks - Lions (H), Connacht (A), Dragons (A), Benetton (A), Glasgow (H), Munster (H)
Note:- Plumtree I don't think could have picked a better schedule for his season start.  They should beat Lions and as far as away fixtures go they don't have any real stinkers in there.  Granted Benetton should be a step up over Connacht and Dragons.  Granted Glasgow and Munster will be real testers but by R5 & R6 they probably will have some stars available.  Signing wise they have had the strongest recruitment this summer by far.  We could be looking at the best centre combo in league with Esterhuizen and Am.  Tight 5 will also be stronger than last year.  On paper they look a formidable team.  I'm guessing Plumtree will now need to start getting wins and will be under some pressure.  Ill play it safe and say 4 wins but I suspect they may get 5 if they get on a winning run.

Stormers - Bulls (H), Ospreys (A), Zebre (A), Edinburgh (A), Munster (H), Glasgow (H)
Note:-  4 wins again for me.  Bulls at home, Zebre, and possibly Munster & Glasgow.  Dobson is a great coach and while their signings havent been massive this summer Schickerling and Kitschoff coming back will feel like safe signings for them.  

Post your final tables below after round 6

On a side note Bulls are supplying a fair few to the national team. 8 in total. So that might hamper their starting rounds. Sharks and Stormers will also be impacted. Lions are only supplying 1 so they will largely be able to go full strength from the start.

A safe bet is to say the Welsh Regions will lose most of their opening 3 games. Ospreys are capable of winning them all but they usually start the season slowly. Important to remember that they should have their players back from injury, but I think the loss of Nicky Smith is not going to be overcome - the most powerful scrummager (is this even a word?) in Wales for me. I've often posted about their backline. Edwards, Walsh and Kieran Williams are good players, as is Giles when he's available. Their back 3 on the whole is quite weak, whilst Watkin is one-dimensional and he's not even good at that - hence why they still use Williams as crashball when he's playing 13.

Bulls and Stormers have good depth but hopefully they're not keen on travelling. WRT Stormers, you often hear them talk about how their other locks should be with SA over Moerat.

Edinburgh are similar to Spurs of the late 90s/early 2000s, on paper you could never figure out why they were not more than mid-table.

Edinburgh feels like nine/ten points from the first six games, however there is always hope the coaching can put it together finally. Thompson gives Everitt a proper alternative to Healy at 10 and a new attack coach may have thoughts of implementing some basic attacking structures. If they can get 14+ points, it may be a sign of changing fortunes.

As an aside, it is a shame there is not a start of the season SA tour for four of the sides. Would allow them to prep in SA, perhaps have a warm-up game or two against Currie Cup sides and turn it into a proper tour. Take the wider squad and have "A" sides or u23 sides get some experience as well.

Reckon the table could look something like this in Round 6

1 Benetton 21
2 Glasgow Warriors 20
3 Leinster 17
4 Stormers 17
5 Ospreys 17
6 Bulls 15
7 Ulster 15
8 Munster 14
9 Lions 14
10 Connacht 14
11 Scarlets 14
12 Sharks 14
13 Edinburgh 12
14 Cardiff 12
15 Dragons 8
16 Zebre 3


Went through all the games and worked out losing bonuses etc. Some big caveats in that one though. Scarlets could possibly end up lower and equally Leinster could be higher. Will be interesting to see how the table actually compares in R6 to mine above.

I did have to double check my table standing above and I'll be honest when I went through it was Benetton being my 1 pick on log.

But looking at their fixture list, I have to say they probably have the best opening 6 round fixtures than any other team in the league. Granted Leinster will cause problems and they could lose that home fixture which would see Leinster top of the log and them at 3rd. But i have a sneaky suspicion they might beat Leinster.

Cant wait for the season to get started now......should be another excellent season of rugby ahead.

You tgink Ulster could lose first 3 and win next 3, but I actally think Ulster could win the first 6 and start the season with some real momentum, but it depends a lot as you say how Morgan settles in. Glasgow at home will be close but I fancy Ulster at home v anyone (maybe not Leinster) then trip to SA is as perfect as you could hope for. Lets not forgot Ulster have no fear of SA sides, were one of the first to win both games in SA and only team so far to beat all 4 SA sides in the regular season. Both games at altitude (better than one at height and other at coast) SA internationals will still be rested, and look like Lions and Bulls (two SA sides Ulster will play) will be playing the Currie cup final the week before.

The SA sides don't really get a preseason but get currie cup but not sure if or how many URC players get to plan esp with that legal case. Both could be caught cold without internationals or Currie cup players) maybe Ulster won't beat both or either, but its the best time they could hope to play them. And as you say Ulster should win next 3.

I think Ulster will start season with 5 out of 6 wins

Welshmushroom wrote:
Ulster - Glasgow (H), Lions (A), Bulls (A), Connacht (H), Ospreys (H), Cardiff (A)
Note:- 3H & 3A but the nature of some of those look daunting.  Glasgow always seem to travel well to them and have run them close there plenty of times at Ravenhill.  I can see Ulster losing that one because Glasgow's squad looks really good this year.  Bad away draw to SA could see them losing all 3 openers.  That said they can beat the next 3.  Safe bet would put them at 2-3 wins.  Mostly promoted from Academy so only 2 new additions.  Aidan Morgan's start to his season will play a key roll in their fortunes I suspect.  

Glasgow may regularly run Ulster close but they always lose - 6 in a row, at least.
Fact is Ulster very rarely lose at home 7 League defeats in the last 6 years.
Also perfect time to play them

Likewise the South Africa trip could not come at a better time for the reasons already given.
Provided O'Toole plays at TH and he and Wilson are fit its 4, possibly 5 wins for me.

As to Morgan - he is better than Burns period.
Burns was a good honest pro but Morgan clearly has a higher ceiling

I forgot a number of ulster players will go to Emerging Ireland for round two, three and round four. Depends who they call up, but can see Ulster with a young squad losing a fair number and not having the depth of others. Thanks IRFU.

I only think TH and 10 are a source of worry.
In other positions we either have players who wont be selected or we have adequate cover

TH becomes a problem if Wilson selected (you would think he will be, if he isn't it will be a mistake from Irelands perspective)
If that is the case we need Moore fit

10 will be a problem if Morgan is selected and Flannery not fit

Also worth baring in mind that Ulster will be in South Africa themselves for two of those rounds.
That could work to our advantage

Kingshu wrote:I forgot a number of ulster players will go to Emerging Ireland for round two, three and round four.  Depends who they call up, but can see Ulster with a young squad losing a fair number and not having the depth of others. Thanks IRFU.

It's not going to help them - but it will depend who gets called in. I'm not sure Ulster will get any wins in SA regardless. I'd say if Ulster get 4 win in the opening 6 they will have done well. 3 is what I would expect them to get at a bare minimum. But they do have one or two tricky ties in there.

I hope for their sake they do well as confidence will play a big part in their season. I don't think they have the type of quality that can play well despite low confidence. When they do have it though they give anyone a game.

Welshmushroom wrote:

I don't think they have the type of quality that can play well despite low confidence.   

You need to understand that Ulster have players coming through, in the forwards, made of very different stuff.

As I have mentioned before, I can see a bit of POM in both Sheridan and McCann.
They are two players both hard nosed and smart.
The type of players you need in a tight corner.

They might do - but the key point is they are inexperienced. They may go on to be excellent players at URC level. But nobody knows for sure. I will say Irish forwards tend to be fairly hard nosed. But that alone won't see them be successful. As I said Ulster when confident will no doubt help those youngsters. Adversely under pressure and lack of confidence in the overall team it could also break them.

Going to be a interesting season again for sure from most teams (except mine of course where expectations are already lower than last year) and I'm super excited to see the season get going. Roll on next weekend

Welshmushroom wrote:  They may go on to be excellent players at URC level.  But nobody knows for sure.

McCann is already at International level. (24 years of age - 46 games)
Sheridan is already at European level. (22 years of age - 28 games)
Izzy is already at European level (24 years of age - 29 games)

They are not that young and all on an upward trajectory.
I have watched a lot of aged rugby in Ulster and these guys are a cut above.
It is harder to assess front rowers at aged level but Wilson seems to have what it takes as well.

As I say this is a different breed of forwards for Ulster.
Watch McNabney (21 years of age - 3 games), over the next year or two, join them.

McCann & Izzy cant really be classed as a youngster at 24. I'd say they are part of the senior squad comfortably at this point.

I take your point on Sheridan. But I've seen it to many times with youngsters hitting second season syndrome. I'd say he has promise but I dont think I would put him on a European level just yet.

Wilson may be talented but he is very young in his position. His development will no doubt be helped or hindered by the overall performance of the pack.

But those 4 alone won't be the reason Ulster have a make or break season. As I said there is massive pressure on the older heads to keep the confidence high. The real issue Ulster have going into this season isn't so much on how they develop (due to limited recruitment) but more on how other teams have developed in the summer. I suspect this year will be considerably harder overall than last year.

We don't have many older heads

Herring, Henderson, Cooney, McCloskey

The talent coming through goes way beyond those I mentioned

Anyone know when the teams are being released? Thought they did this on a Thursday lunchtime......or am I miss remembering this?

Also neilthom7 are you still posting the Round fixture info like you did last year?

Welshmushroom wrote:Also neilthom7 are you still posting the Round fixture info like you did last year?

I shall it’s coming today at some point.

Good news

I always tend to do prediction posts on that thread.

Is this already widely known?

According to United Rugby Championship Head of Match Officials Tappe Henning, none of the current law trials will be used in the URC this season unless and until they are made into law by World Rugby. EPCR will be the same.

https://x.com/threeredkings/status/1836672925493051700