England's winter of cricket 2024/25

The squad for the tour of Pakistan has just been announced...Stokes and Crawley are back, with Dan Lawrence dropped. There are also recalls for Rehan Ahmed and Jack Leach, with Brydon Carse getting a tour also.

Full squad (likely XI then others);

Zak Crawley
Ben Duckett
Ollie Pope
Joe Root
Harry Brook
Ben Stokes
Jamie Smith (wk)
Gus Atkinson
Olly Stone
Jack Leach
Shoaib Bashir

Reserves:
Jordan Cox
Brydon Carse
Rehan Ahmed
Chris Woakes
Josh Hull
Matthew Potts

Will MacPherson noting they see Tom Hartley as more suited for the true turning wickets of SL/India/Bangladesh, hence his omission. Tests likely to be played at Rawalpindi, Multan, Rawalpindi. (Two Pindi tests...fun).

Extra seamers suggest Stokes might not be fit to bowl?

Guess Rehan has a chance given his batting, particularly if Stokes can't be an option. Think Woakes is likely to play as the experienced seamer

I wondered when we'd see the squad, as the first test is under four weeks away! And still no TV broadcaster...

So it looks like Lawrence's adventures v Sri Lanka, which was a chance for him to challenge for a regular spot, have seen him go completely the other way and now he's not even the reserve bat! Fair. But with only 17 in the squad, there might need to be a rush to call up more cover if an injury occurs...unless England think they can cover an injury by moving Woakes to 7?

I must say the bowling doesn't look too exciting to me. Atkinson and Stone will be the main weapons.

Woakes...it's a huge series for him. If he performs well here, then further tours to NZ and Australia await. But if he falters overseas again - and let's take a moment to remember his overseas record, which is 20 tests and a bowling average of nearly 52, with his last test in Asia coming in 2016 - then England need to look to other options for NZ, with that being the last overseas series before Australia. This should be Jimmy's spot, not Woakes'.

Potts, big series for him as well. Carse is obviously highly rated by the England set up, so I'm not too surprised to see his inclusion, though I don't personally think much of him. He has had a rotten county season, with season figures of 4/424 and an economy of nearly 4.5. He's another bowler that can't be classed as a control bowler, an area where England are definitely lacking.

Hull retaining a place. Well...that's a risk. If he gets carted then it could actually be detrimental to his development, and we know those wickets in Pakistan are quite lifeless.

Pleased to see Rehan return. If he plays, I hope Stokes gives him the ball at decent times, unlike in India where Root often got the ball before Rehan. Surprised they've backed Leach over Hartley. I had thought we'd seen the last of Leach.

Starting XI will obviously have Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes and Smith as the top seven. I think it might be Woakes, Atkinson, Stone and Bashir as the bowling attack, but if England think it'll turn more then Leach will likely play over one of Atkinson/Stone. Pope will be hoping it doesn't turn much! I think Woakes will definitely play, because England need some experience in their attack and he's the only seamer who can be relied on to bowl economically.

It's a curious series. Pakistan are in a dreadful state and there's an argument that they're the weakest WTC team around right now. No wins in their last ten tests at home. Shocking. England should be targeting a 3-0 win, and I hope they've learned from the slap in the face SL gave them.

I was definitely expecting Leach to return here. He was clearly the first choice spinner in India before the latest injury. Then Bashir impressed and took the first spot but Leach makes complete sense for this series IMO.

Stokes and Crawley returning are obviously big boosts. Crawley especially should do well in those conditions. If the pitches are dead then scoring quickly, hence fast starts, suddenly becomes an important part of forcing results.

The bowling is more mixed but that has been the case overseas for a long while now. Atkinson impressing so much and Stone returning certainly help with that. But Wood getting his latest injury does not.

I'd say that squad looks slightly better than the one that beat Pakistan in 2022. Livi and Jacks were playing as spin bowling all-rounders in that series, then Rehan making a debut in T3. I'd much rather Bashir and Leach as a spin attack with Rehan as a potential all-rounder (of sorts at this point in his development) if conditions required it. Whilst Smith makes the middle order look so much stronger.

Thinking back on that '22 series drives home how frustrating Ollie Robinson is though. He performed a tough role well in that series. He should've been leading the attack by now given how talented he is. Instead his conditioning kept being all over the place and he's out in the cold. A shame.

Duty281 wrote:  

It's a curious series. Pakistan are in a dreadful state and there's an argument that they're the weakest WTC team around right now. No wins in their last ten tests at home. Shocking. England should be targeting a 3-0 win, and I hope they've learned from the slap in the face SL gave them.

Pak have hit their nadir. They cannot go lower while going up is a possibility.
Pak are a nation whose cricketing passion cannot be doubted not do they lack skills. All that they need to do is get rid of 4 or 5 warring seniors and plug-in talent from their reasonably good FC system.
A younger cohesive team cannot do worse.
If I was PCB, I would order a rank turning pitch and in a lottery that would given them a 50% win chance which is not a bad probability.

Therein lies Eng's problem....that they are somewhat likely to find a  resurgent Pak....and Pak's loss to BD and Eng's own show last time  has set reference bar at 3-0 for a good performance.
Eng should be careful and play "proper" test cricket and be ready to take 1-0 or 2-1 win also as a good result.

They should definitely prepare sharp turners. Maybe the shock of losing to Bangladesh will provide the spark needed to make such a change? Time will tell.

Duty281 wrote:Carse is obviously highly rated by the England set up, so I'm not too surprised to see his inclusion, though I don't personally think much of him. He has had a rotten county season, with season figures of 4/424 and an economy of nearly 4.5. He's another bowler that can't be classed as a control bowler, an area where England are definitely lacking.

I have a feeling that McCullum might be eyeing Carse as someone to potentially try in a Neil Wagner type role.

I've banged on and on before about how unique Wagner, but he is a fascinating outlier. He bowled by a distance the most bouncers in Test cricket. Averaging 28 an innings. At one point, the next most bouncers bowled over the same period as Wagner's barrage were by Mitch Starc and he'd bowled close to half as many! Wagner's economy and average from bouncers were brilliant - top three in both I believe. 35% of his wickets were from bouncers. Whilst the average for seamers was around 12%. We haven't seen another bowler go short that often. He really is unique. It carried him to 260 wickets at a near identical career average to Broad.

Vitally from England's perspective, the bouncers made Wagner an elite change bowler. Which is so often one of England's biggest issues. The number of seamers in Test history to have taken over 100 wickets bowling first change or later his incredibly small. Something like 14 or 15 last time I updated my stats on this. It's a ridiculous stat. As expected, bowlers usually have worse records bowling first change compared to when they open as well. Absolute elites like Joel Garner, Pat Cummins and Malcolm Marshall still average low twenties. Other greats like Beefy and Walsh averaged around 26 when bowling first change. Wagner? He averaged 26 and took over 200 wickets. His first change average was 3 runs better than Morne Morkel and 5 runs better than Mitch Johnson!

McCullum was still around NZ cricket, albeit in his twilight as a player, when Wagner shifted to this method. He'll have seen the plan evolving and the Black Caps realising the potential of it. It allowed him to prise out wickets on those dead pitches that NZ moved to in order to produce more batters in F-C cricket and score more runs in Tests. Wagner was absolutely vital to their success at home, and then away, by being so effective in overs where others usually struggled. Which in turn allowed those other bowlers to be saved for when they were most effective.

Carse certainly has the pace for that role. He's quicker than Wagner. The question is whether he can come near Wagner's incredible fitness, he bowled long spells banging it in, and accuracy. Also, vitally, how important the left-arm angle was to Wagner's method? Could Carse replicated it by coming round the wicket? Wagner is such an outlier that we really don't know.

If they're going to try it, then Pakistan seems the best place if the pitches remain what they've been for a while. You'll have lots of overs where conventional seam bowling wont get much traction, which lends itself to trying something different.

I don't mind them looking outside the box with change bowlers given that county cricket is so geared towards opening seamers. So long as the plans are well executed of course. Bouncers bowled inaccurately become cannon fodder. Wagner's success was dependent on outstanding accuracy and very smart fields which he bowled to expertly. I don't mind a funky plan if it's properly planned and executed. If they try Carse in that role, then the quality of execution will be the key, just the same as the most traditional swing bowling with a new Dukes.

Shan Masood (capt), Saud Shakeel (vice-capt), Aamer Jamal, Abdullah Shafique, Abrar Ahmed, Babar Azam, Mir Hamza, Mohammad Huraira, Mohammad Rizwan (wk), Naseem Shah, Noman Ali, Saim Ayub, Salman Ali Agha, Sarfaraz Ahmed (wk), Shaheen Shah Afridi.

That's Pakistan's 15 man squad for the first test. Just the first test.

Jamal is back after recovering from an injury that kept him out of the Bangladesh series, but Khurram Shahzad, who took 6/90 v Bangladesh in one innings, misses this test through injury. Noman Ali comes in as another spin option.

I suppose the main selection news will be whether or not Shaheen plays, after being dropped for the second test v Bangladesh. Pakistan aiming to end an astonishing run of ten home tests without a win, with their last test win at home coming in February 2021.

Under two weeks until the series starts and no word of a TV broadcaster in the UK.

Don't think Stokes is bowling in the 1st Test, expect to see Carse, Woakes and Atkinson. I will just have to read Cricinfo commentary or listen on TMS.

Yeah in his interview with Ward on Sky yesterday he indicated that bowling in that first test would probably not happen, less because of the hamstring itself but more cos he needs to prep his whole body and probably not enough time from being fit from the hamstring.

Certainly poses an interesting selection dilemma for the first test.

Unless Pakistan drastically change their pitch preparation, 3 seamers and 2 spinners looks like the best balance available by a distance to me. Fitting that in is tougher though if all the batters are fit. Especially with Pope getting a ton in the final Test of the summer.

If they're absolute roads, then 7.Woakes 8.Atkinson 9.Stone shouldn't be an issue. They could even look at Carse as someone quicker than Atkinson and post injury Stone, plus he's a very decent bat. I'd be very tempted to look at Carse ahead of Woakes in these conditions. I have a feeling that they are going to give Woakes a chance overseas though.

The batting depth they can get from the bowlers wouldn't be my concern at all if Smith moved up to 6. It'd be about which batter they drop. Maybe Crawley being asked to sit out T1? They could even spin that as just being extra rehab time.

king_carlos wrote:
...

The batting depth they can get from the bowlers wouldn't be my concern at all if Smith moved up to 6. It'd be about which batter they drop. Maybe Crawley being asked to sit out T1? They could even spin that as just being extra rehab time.

Hi Carlos - in that scenario, I'm guessing that Stokes opens with Duckett, yes?

guildfordbat wrote:

king_carlos wrote:
...

The batting depth they can get from the bowlers wouldn't be my concern at all if Smith moved up to 6. It'd be about which batter they drop. Maybe Crawley being asked to sit out T1? They could even spin that as just being extra rehab time.

Hi Carlos - in that scenario, I'm guessing that Stokes opens with Duckett, yes?

Hi Guildford

Either Stokes opening or Pope up to open with Stokes at 3. I'd maybe ere towards the later. I know that means moving two batters rather than one, but I've been of the opinion for a while that Stokes might be England's best option at 3. I think he's got the technique against pace and especially the short ball for it. Others disagree and prefer Stokes at 6 due to how well he marshals the tail. Which does have its merits, but I feel Smith being such a good WK-bat somewhat lessens that. Whilst I think finding another lower middle order player who can bat with the tail should be significantly easier to find than a number 3 who can play quick bowling as well as Stokes.

The other batters coming through look so much better suited to the lower middle order too. Pope or Cox are in that bracket. Coming in at 6, with a platform I think they could be very dangerous. Especially with Smith at 7. I don't really see Pope or Cox as Test number 3s though.

I don't think it will happen. They've nailed their colours to Pope at 3. Given how dire the top order resources have been for a long time now, averaging 35 with 7 tons is an improvement in the circumstances. Depressing as that may be. For years we've had a procession of top order batters averaging about 30 or less, then getting discarded.

Josh Bohannon does interest me as a genuine top 3 by trade. His F-C record is good but also significantly worse than Pope's - when taking out Test numbers to compare like for like. Whilst Bohannon has done well for the Lions, he's also been outscored there by Jennings, who we've seen struggle in Tests. So I don't think he's banging down the door hard enough for it to be unreasonable to continue with Pope.

Josh Hull out of the Pakistan tour, injured

So Hull is the latest to suffer the curse that afflicts English fast bowling then.

England apparently not calling up a replacement.

Astonishing odds posted on SkyBet. England 10/11 to win the series v Pakistan; 8/1 for England to win it 3-0; 11/10 on England winning the first test.

But still no news on whether we can actually watch it.

https://x.com/SportBusiness/status/1841051993449607599

Breaking: With England’s three-Test tour of Pakistan starting in just six days, Sky is now thought likely to finalise an agreement with the Pakistan Cricket Board.

Looks like salvation. Sky with a cut price deal at the last knockings.

Duty281 wrote:https://x.com/SportBusiness/status/1841051993449607599

Breaking: With England’s three-Test tour of Pakistan starting in just six days, Sky is now thought likely to finalise an agreement with the Pakistan Cricket Board.

Looks like salvation. Sky with a cut price deal at the last knockings.

That means up at 6.30 to watch

But no Anderson to watch

Duty281 wrote:Astonishing odds posted on SkyBet. England 10/11 to win the series v Pakistan; 8/1 for England to win it 3-0; 11/10 on England winning the first test.
.

They are factoring draw as a huge probability to give such a high return on 3-0
Draw due to a placid feather-bed OR Rain wets the outfield and no play for 2 days

Yeah, quite possibly. A 1-1 draw is just 4/1 in comparison.

I really struggle to see a draw in this series. Pakistan is normally very dry in October, and with the pace England like to bat at there's going to be plenty of time to force results.

Jos Buttler (captain), Jofra Archer, Jacob Bethell, Jafer Chohan, Sam Curran, Will Jacks, Liam Livingstone, Saqib Mahmood, Dan Mousley, Jamie Overton, Adil Rashid, Phil Salt, Reece Topley, John Turner.

That's England's squad for both the ODIs and T20s in the West Indies, with two players from the test squad for Pakistan to be named at a later date. The games are late October/early-mid November.

The big news is obviously Jafer Chohan, a leg spinner who is viewed as highly talented, getting a call-up for a potential debut. Rashid's possible replacement? His experience in professional cricket is limited to a couple of dozen T20 games for Yorkshire.

Turner and Mousley may also get debuts. How many squads has Turner been in now? Buttler also returns from injury.

The two players to be added from the Test squad will be massive for the ODI side given that squad. The ODI batting from that squad is even barer than the T20i batting from the recent Oz series.

It's an issue with the best Test and white ball batters converging. You can name a better ODI batting line-up than that with the absentees who will be in Pakistan than you can from that squad.

1.Salt 2.Jacks 3.Buttler 4.Livi 5.Bethell 6.Surran 7.Overton
vs
1.Crawley 2.Duckett 3.Root 4.Brook 5.Stokes 6.Smith 7.Carse

I really hope those two players added from the Test squad are both batters!

Chohan's an interesting call. He's apparently rated by Dilly as well as the coaches. I honestly don't know much about him though. They really need an understudy for Dilly to start getting experience. I was hoping it would be Rehan, I think he's got a very good skillset for white ball cricket. It isn't uncommon to see googly dominant wrist-spinners succeed in white ball. Whereas that is rare in Tests. There's no reason that Rehan's leg-break can't keep improving of course, but, at the moment, I think his googly is probably his best delivery.

Lions squad

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GY96_VvXwAAQTMa?format=png&name=small

That much more of a development Lions squad than the one last winter. Which was very much 'England A' as selection stood then. The likes of Jennings and Bohannon or Test discards like Lawrence and Foakes aren't involved, the batting is largely filled out by a few recent England U19 talents. Then there's an absolute f**k ton of seamers!

Batters - Rew (wk), Hurst (wk), McCann, Shaikh, McKinney
Seam all-rounders - Aldridge
Spin all-rounders - Coles, Mousley
Seamers - Hull, Pennington, Turner, Lawes, Brown, Akhter, Stanley, Crocombe, Moore
Spinners - Chohan, Ahmed

I guess it's good to see that Hull and Pennington aren't out long term. Or aren't expected to be at this exact moment.

A team selection is always tricky. India were brilliant at building a fantastic A team system when Dravid was head coach of it. They got talents out of the domestic system and under Dravid's tutelage early. Then got them good experience around the world with a really strong touring structure against decent sides. I'd love England to do the same, but they've been very inconsistent with the "strong touring structure against decent sides" bit. Which is fairly vital. The opposition the Lions face tends to be pretty random, hence selection ends up being similar.

There was a period for a long time after Rob Key got dropped as a Test player that he seemed to go on every Lions tour and captain a lot of them. He almost seemed to be picked as something between a player/coach and a babysitter to a squad that otherwise had an average age of about 20. I could never decide if I rated it or found it laughable, I'd swing from thinking, "Ah, good, a wise old county head and very good batter in his own right. That keeps some present day quality in the XI and passing on his knowledge", then I'd think, "Is Bob just in there for a laugh every winter?"

A few of the more senior batters they might've looked at will doubtless either be involved in the Big Bash just before this tour. Or the Abu Dhabi T10 around the same time. Or the SA20, PSL, ILT20 in the new year. Etc etc. Blah blah.

https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/england-wait-ben-stokes-fitness-first-pakistan-test-1453716

Stokes touch and go on actually making the first test, so might be a retention of the balance from the summer tests. Crawley will be fit to play.

Team announced tomorrow.

If he's touch and go to play, then he surely wont be bowling. Which raises the question of balance again. I definitely wouldn't go in with only 4 specialist bowlers in Pakistan conditions. 3 seamers and 2 spinners all the way for me. I'd much rather Leach and Bashir in the XI too, rather than Root as the second spinner.

Olly Stone has his wedding between T1 and T2. He's hoping to be available for both, dashing back in between. I'd expect that they might try to play him in T1 and T3 though. Avoid any issues with playing T2 just after travelling.

Interestingly or worryingly, the Beeb article mentions even leaving out Smith and giving Pope the gloves. I'm hoping that's just idle speculation rather than the TMS team having heard something from the dressing room. Pope kept wicket on the last tour of course, so hopefully it's a throwaway line with nothing behind it. Smith's clearly a better batter than all but Root and Brook in that first choice top 7 from what I've seen!

1.Crawley 2.Duckett 3.Stokes/Pope 4.Root 5.Brook 6.Smith (wk) 7.Woakes/Carse 8.Atkinson 9.Stone 10.Leach 11.Bashir

I think that's by a distance the best option if Stokes can't bowl. Woakes or Carse depending on whether they want a 3rd quicker option or some experience. I'd hope they make the tough call of leaving out skipper or vice if it's the best balance available for the XI.

Picking Pope to keep so they can drop Smith to fit Stokes in as a batter would be the kind of mindset I'd hope bazball would cut through. Pope may be a senior player and VC but outside of piling up runs at the oval he's been fairly meh at 3. Smith looks like he could be a difference making bat for England for a while

First image of the pitch in Multan  

Not feeling over confident of England's chances in this First Test. Pakistan have been struggling so reasonable to think they are vulnerable even at home ; but last time England won here due to (A) devastating batting at speed (b) Good spin - mainly Jack Leach but useful cameos from Jacks and Rehan ; and (c) Excellent pace bowling from Anderson Wood and Robinson. Significantly none of those three are here this time and it remains to be seen if Woakes (so far highly unsuccessful in Asian conditions) or any of the new boys who have not played Tests outside England can replicate their efforts. Plus the batting has Crawley coming back from injury and doubts on Stokes... at least Leach is still on deck.

It may all go well - however the team is made up to address balance issues. But I think it is very much 50/50 in advance of the toss.

Stokes confirmed as injured for the first test, so it'll be a continuation of the late summer in regards to balance.

Woakes, Carse and Atkinson to be the three seamers, with Leach and Bashir as the spinners. They really like Carse, don't they? I'm disappointed for Stone, who I think deserved to start based on his test return v SL. Huge game for Woakes.

alfie wrote:Not feeling over confident of England's chances in this First Test. Pakistan have been struggling so reasonable to think they are vulnerable even at home ; but last time England won here due to (A) devastating batting at speed (b) Good spin - mainly Jack Leach but useful cameos from Jacks and Rehan ; and (c) Excellent pace bowling from Anderson Wood and Robinson. Significantly none of those three are here this time and it remains to be seen if Woakes (so far highly unsuccessful in Asian conditions) or any of the new boys who have not played Tests outside England can replicate their efforts. Plus the batting has Crawley coming back from injury and doubts on Stokes... at least Leach is still on deck.

It may all go well - however the team is made up to address balance issues. But I think it is very much 50/50 in advance of the toss.

I'm massively confident of England's chances.

Pakistan are in a supremely dreadful state. Babar is averaging something like 20 in his last eight tests, for example. Shakeel has only got beyond 30 in one of his last ten innings (granted, he made 141 in that one, he's the Pakistani Ollie Pope). They've just been schooled by Bangladesh, with Bangladesh bowling Pakistan out for 275 or fewer in three out of four innings, on what were some excellent batting wickets.  England's bowling is weaker than 2022, yes, but it's not weaker than Bangladesh's.  Pakistan are in turmoil on and off the field, with no home test wins in something like three and a half years. They've got all that drama with Shaheen.

I'd say England's batting is stronger than two years ago, with the addition of Smith being key. And England have got a record of eight wins from eight v middling sub continental opposition in the sub continent, going back to 2018.

Gonna be 3-0 to England this one.

He's not going to play this series is he? I suppose Woakes then has to play, to provide some kind of balance to the side, but it still does look like a long tail, and like others I am not convinced that England are the big favourites for this series that some in the media seem to think

England XI: 1 Zak Crawley, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Ollie Pope (capt), 4 Joe Root, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Jamie Smith (wk), 7 Chris Woakes, 8 Gus Atkinson, 9 Brydon Carse, 10 Jack Leach, 11 Shoaib Bashir

VTR wrote:He's not going to play this series is he? I suppose Woakes then has to play, to provide some kind of balance to the side, but it still does look like a long tail, and like others I am not convinced that England are the big favourites for this series that some in the media seem to think

Definitely agree on that point. From the team confirmed in Olly's post, we have a number 8 batting at 7, two number 9s at 8 and 9 followed by two Jacks at 10 and 11.

More generally, I find it hard to assess our chances as I don't know what sort of state Pakistan's test team is in currently. Their white ball side has been a right mess whenever I've seen them this year.

On what looks like a green pitch warranting Root only and Saud shakil only as part time spinners,it's surprising to see Eng select 2 spinners, that's a surplus of two even if Pakistanis shave off some of that grass.

Duty281 wrote:They really like Carse, don't they?

My take has always been (based on nothing concrete, like my theory that Bess moved to Yorkshire in an attempt to get Root to like him) that he benefits a lot from the general 'off-brand Stokes' vibe he has.

VTR wrote:He's not going to play this series is he?

I think he will, but I'm not so sure I want him to. I heading back to thinking he can't be relied on as an all-rounder any more, so might as well figure out what Pope is in the long run.

I feel I'm one of the few, but, I get it with Carse. He's a touch quicker than Atkinson and post injury Stone. Yet e's more durable than Wood or Archer. So hopefully they can get more overs out of him. If he can be used for the dog work or Wagner overs (see long post above!) to save the other bowlers for times when conditions suit better, then I think he could work well. It will be about the right plans and execution as ever. I can see the thinking though.

I could see it being a case of his average looking meh on the surface but he will be bowling the worst overs to take wickets. So, when you compare his numbers to other English seamers in those specific overs, Carse might suddenly look pretty decent. Even if the guys who are getting the new ball, reversing ball, overs under cloud cover, etc etc have better stats on the surface. The English system might as well be designed to not develop change bowlers. Almost every seamer who ends up playing for England is an opening bowler, then the most junior has to make do with not getting the new ball.

Maybe it'll work. Maybe it won't. Maybe Carse will be used for a Wagner style short ball tactic as muted above. Maybe he won't. I like that they're thinking outside the box.

Carse's batting has come on a long way in the last couple of years too. I think he's a quality Test 8 now. Rather than a number 9 one place too high.

Yeah… you can count me in the people who don’t see it with Carse! I struggle to see how someone who goes at 4s in domestic cricket can be trusted to bowl a lot of overs in tough periods - he just won’t be able to if he is haemorrhaging runs.

Of course different tools are required to succeed as a bowler in Tests than are in the CC - but I struggle to see how a bowler with those additional tools would go at 4s and average 34 in the CC.

I was definitely one of those unimpressed with Carse - and am still unconvinced : but I did think his bowling in the recent Lord's ODI showed a bit of improvement. Enough to give him more time in the white ball set up , at least.

As for Tests , I get the Wagner reference KC has flagged (though I really don't fancy watching England resorting to that stuff on a regular basis ) Obviously "they" think there is something there so at least this Pakistan outing will give us a chance to find out whether this is fantasy or one of their better hunches. Of course how much we can take from any performances will depend somewhat on whether Pakistan manage to put up a competitive effort or continue with the rubbish they managed against Bangladesh ! You never know with Pakistan ...

Saim Ayub, Abdullah Shafique, Shan Masood (capt), Babar Azam, Saud Shakeel, Mohammad Rizwan (wk), Salman Ali Agha, Aamer Jamal, Shaheen Afridi, Naseem Shah, Abrar Ahmed.

That's Pakistan's team for the first test. Shaheen returns to lead the bowling with Naseem Shah. Aamer Jamal comes back from injury as the third seamer. Salman Ali and Abrar Ahmed provide the spin.

That does look a better Pakistan side on paper. Shaheen and Naseem back. Jamal looked promising in Oz and he can bat. Agha adds depth at number 7 after a good Test start with the bat, though his offies haven't been up to much when I've seen them.

They've been such a basket case recently, even by Pakistan cricket standard, that it's hard to know if the 'on paper' will translate much. Shaheen has been down on pace and looked less threatening for it. Naseem has had injury issues too. Though whenever I see Naseem fit I always think he could be utterly unplayable if it clicks.

I'd expect that bowling attack to be much better than the poor one England faced on the previous trip. Their batting has been dire for a while though.

Since the start of 2023, none of Pakistan's top four are averaging 30+ in test cricket. Babar is under huge pressure, with no fifty since 2022 (granted Pakistan don't play a lot of tests!). Shakeel, Rizwan and Salman Ali, the 5-7 axis, have been the main run getters.

Shaheen is another one under big pressure. Coming back after recently being dropped, he averaged 31 with the ball in tests in 2022, and that's since gone northward to plus 40 in his last five tests. He really needs to deliver in this series. Naseem Shah is their big threat and has improved since 2022. Aamer Jamal went very well in Australia, two six wicket hauls, but he is on the rebound from injury, and even though he's early in his test career, he is 28.

Pakistan's spin options don't look much. Abrar Ahmed doesn't seem anything special, and Salman Ali isn't even at Joe Root levels with the ball (opening up to a nice jinx here!). With the heat in the high 30s, maybe even low 40s, the quicks will be used very sparingly, and the spinners will get through a lot of overs.

It should be a simple test series win for England. And if they can keep focused, target a 3-0.

I know Pakistan's results have not been good, but I struggle to see this England side getting near to replicating what they did in 2022 in Pakistan.
The seam bowling is significantly weaker, no Stokes bowling either (as he was on that tour) or to provide balance....and generally poorer preparation coming here right off the back of the English summer.
Pakistan's bowling also at this point looks STREETS better than it has been recently and was in 2022. We'll see how it plays of course.

Absolutely screams Pakistan 2-1 series win to me.

Wide range in  "predictions"  for this series !   Which is reasonable , I think - until we see a day or so of action at least.  I've already said I am not too bullish on England's prospects (similar reasons to Olly's ) though I think if I had to pick a result I'd lean toward an England win simply because Pakistan have been so woeful of late. Really think an awful lot depends on whether the "untried/generally poor in overseas conditions" England pace men perform : having a little trouble believing they can match Anderson/2022 Robinson/Wood ; and if they don't how will England make up for it ?

Will see soon enough I guess as I see Pakistan have won the toss and will bat in Very Hot conditions...

Early strike for England - one of the softest opening dismissals you'll ever see ! Saim Ayub managing to glove Atkinson behind from a ball he really didn't need to play. Bit of a higher bounce than he expected , perhaps ; but he's kicking himself as he walks off. 8/1 after four overs.

England will be delighted with that as this looks a very nice surface for batting.

Close for Carse but overturned. Feels like a day England just have to try and chip away

56/1 from 13 in the first hour : Abdullah and Shan Masood generally comfortable after that early wicket. Pope not wanting to have his pace men overworked so Woakes has bowled six (changing ends ) , Atkinson four and Carse three.

Carse a decent start : pace range 139-144 K. Thought he had Masood lbw - as did Dharmasena originally but drs showed he'd pitched outside leg. Otherwise no alarms for the bats and this pitch looks full of runs.

Hi GSC : nice to have some company on here early in the day ...

Agree patience will be needed .

Bashir on straight after drinks and it seems the Pakistan skipper wants to take him on early...advancing twice to drive for boundaries in his second over. Nearly a suicidal run out just then as Pope's flick just misses at the bowler's end ; but otherwise the bats look well set at 86/1 after 18...a decent run rate. Masood still going after Bashir.

Fifties now for both bats as Abdullah hoists Bashir for six over long on...121/1 after 24 and Leach now gets the ball for one before lunch...