Guerrero vs Maidana

http://www.boxingscene.com/guerrero-maidana-finalized-august-27-san-jose--40589
My money is on Robert.....thoughts on this potential cracker guys?

My money is on Robert.....thoughts on this potential cracker guys?
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If Guerrero moves up with his speed, and is strong i can see him outboxing Maidana and barely losing a round, i thought Guerrero was far more deserving of a Khan fight than Judah, although i had worries about the size of Khan to Guerrero. However, Guerrero has blistering speed and is a brilliant boxer, i thought he would of gone for Marquez who he would beat at this stage imo, having said that he's getting ready to get cooked by Pacquiao. Guerrero UD imo

Guerrero with his eyes closed.........Maidana is lucky garbage with a punch..

How the hell he's made so much money is beyond me....

Lost to Kotelnik, Khan and should of lost to an ancient Erik..

Hope Guerrero slaps him out..

Will copy and paste what I wrote on another thread about this last week, haven't changed my opinion at all.

Can't see anything other than a points win for Guerrero here, providing he sticks to a game plan for twelve full rounds. Maidana is a slightly more 'glammed up' version of Prescott. He's a puncher, but that's it. His struggles against Morales said it all, for me. His power will keep Guerrero on his toes, he'll get the crowd on the edge of their seat two or three times as he looks like he might break through, but I think Guerrero will adapt each time to make sure he doesn't and take it by something like 116-112.

Good post and spot on.............

@Chris
He battered Khan from pillow to post throughout the fight, he can't be that bad.

Why did he lose on the cards then????

Young_Towzer wrote:@Chris
He battered Khan from pillow to post throughout the fight, he can't be that bad.

Think we've found our overexaggeration of the year so far. Battered him from pillar to post "throughout the fight?" Not sure which fight you were watching. Almost got him out of there in round ten, yes, and had some good success early on as he recovered from being decked in the first. But that aside, Khan controlled the rest of the fight, and controlled it well. I stand by my statement - Maidana has a punch, and that's it. If Guerrero has any discipline about him he'll win a sound decision here.

At this stage of their careers Guerrero is quicker, bigger, stronger, heavier handed and has better stamina than morales. Given that I thought morales won on my card, I think Guerrero should win by wide UD.

Maidana is slow, predictable and is easy to outbox. Guerrero should keep it long hitting accurate shots. Maidana can't take the punishment katsidis did also their may be a stoppage win. Maidana is heavy handed, but I think his one-punch KO power is overrated somewhat. He hasn't knocked anyone out of note since Ortiz and Ortiz could have continued.

Morales backed up maidana despite limited power and Guerrero should be able to hurt him badly

Think we've found our overexaggeration of the year so far. Battered him from pillar to post "throughout the fight?" Not sure which fight you were watching. Almost got him out of there in round ten, yes, and had some good success early on as he recovered from being decked in the first. But that aside, Khan controlled the rest of the fight, and controlled it well. I stand by my statement - Maidana has a punch, and that's it. If Guerrero has any discipline about him he'll win a sound decision here.
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Khan won the fight, it was close and he landed the better shots, Maidana battered him throughout the fight, and i watched the fight thankyou very much. If Khan got tagged so often by such a sloppy puncher imagine what Bradley or Brook would do to him mmmmm. Guerrero UD, not taking anywhere near as much punishment as Khan did. And Chris? nearly had him out of there if that was in a British ring he would of been stopped straight away, we had the conman of a ref in there though, who again played a huge, huge part in NOT letting a fighter fight his fight. Khan never looked at the ref throughout though to his credit, and showed true grit.

Since when did a hypothetical match up between Khan and Bradley have anything to do with this?

We can speculate all we like about how Khan "would have been stopped if it had been in a British ring." The fact of the matter was, he wasn't in a British ring, and the fact that he went on to win the bout more than justifies the decision to let the fight continue. As the old saying goes, there are no 'ifs' in boxing, only results.

Maidana had that 10-8 round in the tenth, had some success early on after being decked himself, but for the most part Khan was in control and showed that, if you stick to a game plan and keep your discipline, Maidana is as good as beaten. He's a puncher, nothing else.

Since when did a hypothetical match up between Khan and Bradley have anything to do with this?
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Because Bradley and Brook are better boxers and cleaner punchers so i said imagine if he was tagged by them, Judah at this stage wouldn't go 12 with Bradley or Brook imo, so he won't be tested there. He's shot to bits and a fighter who has even a bit of will and determination will walk right through him, like Clottey did, and Joshua beat him to the punch!, Khan is a good fighter, fighting has beens and never gonna bee's.

Again, I've got no interest in discussing Khan's ventures outside of the Maidana fight, as they're pointless in this article. Either way, I can't put my views on Maidana-Guerrero any more simply than I have. Guerrero to prove far too cute and rounded for the slugger.

Again, I've got no interest in discussing Khan's ventures outside of the Maidana fight, as they're pointless in this article. Either way, I can't put my views on Maidana-Guerrero any more simply than I have. Guerrero to prove far too cute and rounded for the slugger.
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Guerrero will prove he's better than Khan, and is a better boxer who can stick to a gameplan, which Khan definitely has problems with. So i see Maidana really struggling and losing a wide UD

Young_Towzer wrote:@Chris
He battered Khan from pillow to post throughout the fight, he can't be that bad.

It's pillAR, not pillOW. But regardless, he pent much of the fight chasing Khan. Not battering him the way you make it sound. I also seem to remember only one man hitting the canvas during the fight. Personally thought Cortez perhaps favoured Khan a bit in the clinched, but was well justified in making the point deduction when Maidana spat his dummy out and threw the elbow.

Guerrero should take this by a healthy margin-he's on the up and up at the moment and Maidana's been shown for what he is, which is a flat-footed slugger with heart and good recovery.

Guerrero should take this by a healthy margin-he's on the up and up at the moment and Maidana's been shown for what he is, which is a flat-footed slugger with heart and good recovery.
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Like i said, he caught Khan enough for a 'flat footed slugger'. Guerrero is more clever and a better boxer with a boxing brain so will avoid a tear up

Yeah, he caught Khan but he was supposed to demolish Khan the first time he landed. Instead Khan threw back flurries and saw out the round. I don't see Guerrero being as negative as Khan is all.

Khan went into the Maidana fight with the intention of showing he could stand and trade with one of the hardest punchers of the division. It was a risky tactic, but he wanted to show people his 'chinny' label was unfounded. If Khan had boxed his usual style Maidana wouldn't have had nearly so much success.

Guerroro will be too disciplined and too slick for Maidana, who will spend most of the fight walking onto his shots.

Be interesting to see the odds for this one, i for one think it's Guerrero by UD all day long. Not sure he stands a chance of stopping Maidana as he'll be on the move a fair bit.

Will be keeping an eye on Skybet as a UD could be ripe for more rodgering of the bookie!

JACKMAGIC wrote:Khan went into the Maidana fight with the intention of showing he could stand and trade with one of the hardest punchers of the division. It was a risky tactic, but he wanted to show people his 'chinny' label was unfounded.

No he didn't! Maidana forced that type of fight. If Khan could have won without risk he would have.

Guerrero outboxes him with straight shots from range. I'm going to go against what I think most will pick and say he stops him. Needs to show power to have Maidana respect him and I can see him getting the finish.

JACKMAGIC wrote:Khan went into the Maidana fight with the intention of showing he could stand and trade with one of the hardest punchers of the division. It was a risky tactic, but he wanted to show people his 'chinny' label was unfounded. If Khan had boxed his usual style Maidana wouldn't have had nearly so much success.

Guerroro will be too disciplined and too slick for Maidana, who will spend most of the fight walking onto his shots.

I can see Maidana eating shots all night long and I think Robert will keep him at range and box his face off. I really fancy Guerrero to do a proper job on Marcos in this one.

Scottrf wrote:

JACKMAGIC wrote:Khan went into the Maidana fight with the intention of showing he could stand and trade with one of the hardest punchers of the division. It was a risky tactic, but he wanted to show people his 'chinny' label was unfounded.

No he didn't! Maidana forced that type of fight. If Khan could have won without risk he would have.

Guerrero outboxes him with straight shots from range. I'm going to go against what I think most will pick and say he stops him. Needs to show power to have Maidana respect him and I can see him getting the finish.

Khan easily had the footwork and boxing skills to keep Maidnana at range, but he got in the pocket with him and ended up eating a massive hook which took his footwork away from him. But that was in the 10th. I still feel Khan went into that fight with the idea of silencing some doubters. Fair play to him - watching the replay of that hook from Maidana and Khans jaw is in a different venue!

Mad the way everyone has jumped on the Guerrero bandwagon after his performance against Kats. He needs to put in a couple more performances like that to win me over.

As Chris said if Maidana is being taught a boxing lesson from Morales, this should be an easy night for Guerrero. What worries me is that Guerrero only got hit clean couple times against Kats and touched down once.

I can for see a score like Chris's 116-112 Guerrero and thats with a couple of scares a long the way.

Mad the way everyone has jumped on the Guerrero bandwagon after his performance against Kats. He needs to put in a couple more performances like that to win me over.

Don't know about others but he's been avoided for some time now and was inactive due to his wifes illness. Most say up and took notice after the Litzau fight and more so the Casa fight.

Has skills and for me too much of a brain for Maidana to allow himself to get tagged.

Agree that the Guerrero following is a bit over the top

Winning a UD over a 50 year old Casamayor is hardly indicative of a world class boxer! Maidana's win over Ortiz is 10x better than anything on Guererro's record.

If Maidana turns up focused he has a good chance of stopping Guerrero IMO, but if he churns out a performance ala Corley and Morales he will lose a UD. My gut feel is that Maidana will stop him in the later rounds though.

Wow_J

It's the manner in which he's dismantled opponents and that he's been avoided by most. How much did Diaz or Marquez want of him?

Boxes the head of Maidana with ease to a 9-3 margin. Will be getting on the UD.

The guy is a darn good technician and this will be his coming out fight, mark my words

Not so much who he beat as how he looked doing it. Wasn't exactly impressive against a shot Casa I agree, but Maidana isn't really a technician.

Have to agree with the consensus here that Guerrero wins this by comfortable UD. Morales outboxed Maidana, a fitter, less shop-worn Guerrero should be able to do the same, but keep up the workrate to prevent the decision going against him.

Coxy

Guerrero's problem is that most of the top lightweights are with Top Rank, except Marquez who has been chasing a Pac fight.

Scott

Who doesn't look good against the likes of Katsidis though?

Kevin Mitchell.

I should rephrase that.

Which world level fighter doesn't look good against Katsidis?

Clear UD decision for Guerrero, hadn't seen too much of him but looked great in his last fight, Maidana better prepare properly this time or he'll get spanked.

wow_junky wrote:I should rephrase that.

Which world level fighter doesn't look good against Katsidis?

Marquez didn't particularly.

It was just how crisp his shots looked and how controlled he was.

Guerrero UD easy pick for me

Scottrf wrote:

wow_junky wrote:I should rephrase that.

Which world level fighter doesn't look good against Katsidis?

Marquez didn't particularly.

It was just how crisp his shots looked and how controlled he was.

I though Marquez was good against Kats. Got caught with the left hook but so did Guerero and he touched down.

It was a quality perfomance but lets not be too hasty.

I should rephrase that.

Which world level fighter doesn't look good against Katsidis?
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The winner of Murray/Mitchell gets Rios, then they'll be world level. All the nonsense about Khan going in proving he could trade baffles me, he can't stick to a gameplan for 12 rounds and got tagged, far too easy to hit. Nobody in the right mind goes in trying to prove they can trade with a murderous puncher like Maidana, Guerrero will use his lightning hands and feet to get out the way and ping him for 12 rounds.

Soldier_Of_Fortune wrote:

Scottrf wrote:

wow_junky wrote:I should rephrase that.

Which world level fighter doesn't look good against Katsidis?

Marquez didn't particularly.

It was just how crisp his shots looked and how controlled he was.

I though Marquez was good against Kats. Got caught with the left hook but so did Guerero and he touched down.

It was a quality perfomance but lets not be too hasty.

I don't believe any of my comments have been too hasty.

People like to be the one to say someone is overrated, which is why people picked Rhodes to beat Alvarez.

I though Marquez was good against Kats. Got caught with the left hook but so did Guerero and he touched down.

It was a quality perfomance but lets not be too hasty.
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Guerrero's performance against Katsidis was better than Marquez', Marquez genuinely looked like being stopped when he was dropped, katsidis tagged Guerrero and should of had a knock down, but he was beaten to the punch and outboxed all night, the highlight of the fight for him was when he shouted 'What are you looking at' -Hilarious.

Y'know, i might set up a website whereby:

People are split down the middle on a fight, lets just use the Guerrero vs Maidana fight as an example (and this could get confusing as i'm confused).

People simply 'bet' £5 for Guerrero

Or

People simply 'bet' £5 for Maidana

If 50 people bet Guerrero that's £250

If 20 people bet Maidana that's £100

If Maidana wins those 20 people get there £5 back and also share the £250, which would make them £12.50 each.

Does that make sense?! Be a nice "put your money where your mouth is" kinda thing!

That's pretty much how odds work, would you accumulate and be allowed to spend all your cash or have a max of £5 per fight?

Scottrf wrote:That's pretty much how odds work, would you accumulate and be allowed to spend all your cash or have a max of £5 per fight?

How is that pretty much how odds work? Odds are based on the likelyhood of an outcome, this is merely a or b with the correct picks getting a share of the other pot. It's nothing like odds.

There are 2 pots. Maximum of one bet, set price of £5. Zero like odds.

Zero like odds.

Comprende buddy!?

Stop being patronising if you don't know how bookies make odds. They are based on where the money goes.

Coxy, i always do well with the Boxing betting, awful with the footy. I got 6/1 for Crolla to stop Watson, and 23/20 outright, was buying money. I'll back Mitchell by tko/ko, Haye by tko/ko, Macklin by tko/ko, as a treble for £2.00 because its a long shot on paper and get at least £40 back.

Stop being patronising if you don't know how bookies make odds. They are based on where the money goes.
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they have odds compilers and boxing experts, ie Buncey working for them, Bunce works or worked with william hill, because he used to do a podcast, so not all true, they will be influenced by people like Bunce' advice to the outcome of fights imo.

Scottrf wrote:Stop being patronising if you don't know how bookies make odds. They are based on where the money goes.

No, they're based on the likelyhood of an outcome. Near guaranteed outcomes have shorter odds, big outsiders have long odds.

And to quote wikipedia to shut you up:

"The odds in favor of an event or a proposition are expressed as the ratio of a pair of integers, which is the ratio of the probability that an event will happen to the probability that it will not happen"

Apologies for being patronising as i was onyl playing, but it's just you seem to be arguing with a fact.

Young_Towzer wrote:Stop being patronising if you don't know how bookies make odds. They are based on where the money goes.
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they have odds compilers and boxing experts, ie Buncey working for them, Bunce works or worked with william hill, because he used to do a podcast, so not all true, they will be influenced by people like Bunce' advice to the outcome of fights imo.

No. That is gambling. Bookmaking revolves around expectations/actuals of where the betting public will put money. If a lot of people bet on a particular outcome, odds shorten.

If it was based on possibilities, odds wouldn't change.

coxy0001 wrote:

Scottrf wrote:Stop being patronising if you don't know how bookies make odds. They are based on where the money goes.

No, they're based on the likelyhood of an outcome. Near guaranteed outcomes have shorter odds, big outsiders have long odds.

And to quote wikipedia to shut you up:

"The odds in favor of an event or a proposition are expressed as the ratio of a pair of integers, which is the ratio of the probability that an event will happen to the probability that it will not happen"

Apologies for being patronising as i was onyl playing, but it's just you seem to be arguing with a fact.

No they aren't. They change based on where the money goes. Ricky Burns' opponents odds got a lot shorter late on because someone put a lot of money on him, not because he became more likely to win.

Young_Towzer wrote:Coxy, i always do well with the Boxing betting, awful with the footy. I got 6/1 for Crolla to stop Watson, and 23/20 outright, was buying money. I'll back Mitchell by tko/ko, Haye by tko/ko, Macklin by tko/ko, as a treble for £2.00 because its a long shot on paper and get at least £40 back.

Will be doing a Murray W (1/2) and Guerrero UD when the latters odds come out. Think Mitchell is finished and didn't exactly rate him in the first place, Murray has been hidden away for a while and fancy him to do a number on spoilt goods.

No they aren't. They change based on where the money goes. Ricky Burns' opponents odds got a lot shorter late on because someone put a lot of money on him, not because he became more likely to win.

No, you're talking about odds fluctuating on a live betting market. The initial market odds are based on the likelyhood of an outcome.

"In formulating his odds to display the bookmaker will have included a profit margin which effectively means that the payout to a successful bettor is less than that represented by the true chance of the event occurring"

True chance of the bet occurring, seems to suggest a correlation with LIKELYHOOD!!!!!!