Guerrero vs Maidana

First topic message reminder :

http://www.boxingscene.com/guerrero-maidana-finalized-august-27-san-jose--40589
My money is on Robert.....thoughts on this potential cracker guys?

The initial odds are based around expectations of where people will bet which will have a lot to do with probability. But that's not causation. They change odds so they make a profit no matter what people bet. If it was the bookie deciding on who they thought would win they would be gambling, not bookmaking.

After that, the odds are based on where the money goes.

You don't think Ricky Burns' opponent got twice as likely to win in an hour? Of course not, it's just he had a lot of money bet on him.

Give up:

http://www.wincomparator.com/en-gb/services-tips/faq/going-a-little-further-when-betting-online/what-are-the-other-betting-methods-available-on-bookmakers-websites-/how-do-bookmakers-set-their-odds-.html

earlyt houghts and i will be posting this on me blog. Gurrero UD, t fast and slick for Maidana, but it will be a qu as always of if Maidana can tag him.

I dearly hope your typing is a little better on the blog Sean

coxy0001 wrote:Give up:

http://www.wincomparator.com/en-gb/services-tips/faq/going-a-little-further-when-betting-online/what-are-the-other-betting-methods-available-on-bookmakers-websites-/how-do-bookmakers-set-their-odds-.html

You're wrong or odds wouldn't change, or wouldn't change much. Believe what you like, that explanation is simplified.

Seanusarrilius wrote:earlyt houghts and i will be posting this on me blog. Gurrero UD, t fast and slick for Maidana, but it will be a qu as always of if Maidana can tag him.

Too many lunchtime sherbets me thinks.

Reminds me of hitmansam's elocution.... Where has he gone btw...?!

coxy0001 wrote:

Seanusarrilius wrote:earlyt houghts and i will be posting this on me blog. Gurrero UD, t fast and slick for Maidana, but it will be a qu as always of if Maidana can tag him.

Too many lunchtime sherbets me thinks.

Reminds me of hitmansam's elocution.... Where has he gone btw...?!

At home watching his Calzaghe career box set would be my guess

rowley wrote:

coxy0001 wrote:

Seanusarrilius wrote:earlyt houghts and i will be posting this on me blog. Gurrero UD, t fast and slick for Maidana, but it will be a qu as always of if Maidana can tag him.

Too many lunchtime sherbets me thinks.

Reminds me of hitmansam's elocution.... Where has he gone btw...?!

At home watching his Calzaghe career box set would be my guess

Hey go easy haha. Got to poat at work, sometimes you got to hurry. But seriously, dont see Maidana being able to out point him so it will be another stalking session with Maidana shipping punishment and throwing windmill cannonball punches in an effort to ko his man. Maidana to go down by points, shame Kats isnt at 140, him and Maidana would be a barnstormer

do you like my mispell on post. Thought you would

Hmmm. Odds are set to favour bookies but don't guarantee them a win.

If for example a horse gets continually backed, the odds will become progressively shorter. This lessons the cost to the bookies if said horse comes in.

Not sure if that is the same for boxing, but i guess if there was similar volumes (ie horse racing) the bookies would have to shorten the odds.

Michaels, Sean wrote:Hmmm. Odds are set to favour bookies but don't guarantee them a win.

If for example a horse gets continually backed, the odds will become progressively shorter. This lessons the cost to the bookies if said horse comes in.

Not sure if that is the same for boxing, but i guess if there was similar volumes (ie horse racing) the bookies would have to shorten the odds.

You're right it doesn't, depends how quickly they adjust odds and how they change.

That happens in boxing, you see it noticeably in Prizefighter. Or for example, with the amount of money coming in on Tyson, the odds on Douglas got longer.

Young_Towzer wrote:I though Marquez was good against Kats. Got caught with the left hook but so did Guerero and he touched down.

It was a quality perfomance but lets not be too hasty.
......................
Guerrero's performance against Katsidis was better than Marquez', Marquez genuinely looked like being stopped when he was dropped, katsidis tagged Guerrero and should of had a knock down, but he was beaten to the punch and outboxed all night, the highlight of the fight for him was when he shouted 'What are you looking at' -Hilarious.

Didnt say it was, its all about styles and fights. Marquez v Katsidis was always goin to be a FOTY cotender as will knew it would be a war.

As with Guerero, he was expected to box behind the jab and keep Kats at bay.

Guerero should beat Maidana but its not going to be a shutout like Kats

Odds change once they've set odds based upon the likelyhood of 'x' outcome.

Please read my link, it explains it in perfect detail in black and white.

They will on occasions get the odds wrong, most notably for me when they installed Khan as something like 11/2 by UD against Maidana from memory... and ended up @ 3/1 from said initial market opening odds of 11/2.

Money on affects live odds. Likelyhood of outcome determines initial market odds. Isn't rocket science lads, again read the link or by all means walk into your local bookies and sound like a daft simpleton

coxy0001 wrote:Odds change once they've set odds based upon the likelyhood of 'x' outcome.

Please read my link, it explains it in perfect detail in black and white.

They will on occasions get the odds wrong, most notably for me when they installed Khan as something like 11/2 by UD against Maidana from memory... and ended up @ 3/1 from said initial market opening odds of 11/2.

Money on affects live odds. Likelyhood of outcome determines initial market odds. Isn't rocket science lads, again read the link or by all means walk into your local bookies and sound like a daft simpleton

It's not rocket science because it's a simple explanation, not how it actually works. It's like learning GCSE chemistry, then going to A Level. You will realise a lot of what they told you is close, but isn't actually correct.

The initial odds look like a prediction on the outcome of an event but are actually a market evaluation i.e. how they think people will perceive the event. It's why a fighter will start at shorter odds in his home country. They don't think he's more likely, they think the bettors will think that way.

What you refer to as live odds are odds. They happen before an event starts as well as in play. If a rush of money goes on one person/team their odds will shorten to try and lower the amount of bets placed there, and increase the bets on the opposition.

I'm offering 2 / 5 that this argument will still be running at 09:00 this evening.

Any takers ?

HumanWindmill wrote:I'm offering 2 / 5 that this argument will still be running at 09:00 this evening.

Any takers ?

Can I have a double on the fact that if it is I still won't care either way?

Money on affects live odds. Likelyhood of outcome determines initial market odds. Isn't rocket science lads, again read the link or by all means walk into your local bookies and sound like a daft simpleton
--------------

That doesn't apply to all sports (i think I said that before). Money on 'now' can effect the market of September's St Ledger. tHAT IS CERTAINLY NOT 'LIVE'.

rowley wrote:

HumanWindmill wrote:I'm offering 2 / 5 that this argument will still be running at 09:00 this evening.

Any takers ?

Can I have a double on the fact that if it is I still won't care either way?

No. Insider information, and all.

However, I'm offering 1 / 100 that nobody else gives a monkey's. Maybe that might be worth a couple of quid and a Yorkshire pudding ?

Admins going off topic

Scottrf wrote:

coxy0001 wrote:Odds change once they've set odds based upon the likelyhood of 'x' outcome.

Please read my link, it explains it in perfect detail in black and white.

They will on occasions get the odds wrong, most notably for me when they installed Khan as something like 11/2 by UD against Maidana from memory... and ended up @ 3/1 from said initial market opening odds of 11/2.

Money on affects live odds. Likelyhood of outcome determines initial market odds. Isn't rocket science lads, again read the link or by all means walk into your local bookies and sound like a daft simpleton

It's not rocket science because it's a simple explanation, not how it actually works. It's like learning GCSE chemistry, then going to A Level. You will realise a lot of what they told you is close, but isn't actually correct.

The initial odds look like a prediction on the outcome of an event but are actually a market evaluation i.e. how they think people will perceive the event. It's why a fighter will start at shorter odds in his home country. They don't think he's more likely, they think the bettors will think that way.

What you refer to as live odds are odds. They happen before an event starts as well as in play. If a rush of money goes on one person/team their odds will shorten to try and lower the amount of bets placed there, and increase the bets on the opposition.

Scott, you intentionally trying to p**s me off?

READ MY LINK

You can't seem to accept the INITIAL MARKET ODDS don't come out of thin air - they assess what the chance of X outcome is and provide odds based on these calculations. THIS IS EXPLAINED IN SOME DETAIL IN MY LINK

I've NEVER once disagreed that odds change based on money laid, the most obvious case being horse racing. YOU however seem to be of the very wrong thinking that they use "pubic opinion" when setting odds - READ MY LINK, IT HAS ZERO TO DO WITH "HOW MUCH MONEY WILL GO DOWN" - IT'S COMPLETELY ABOUT THE LIKELYHOOD OF X WINNING

READ MY LINK, otherwise please don't bother replying to me.

Under normal circumstances would try it Windy but am still smarting over the tenner on Rhodes this weekend. Fortunately the mates I am watching Haye with all fancy his chances so should get chance to get that back shortly.

I read the link. I don't agree with it, I believe it's simplified as I said before. You try and be an expert on every subject by providing quotes from random websites but you aren't correct here. Bookmaking is always a market evaluation (which I agree looks the same as a prediction), otherwise it's gambling.

Scottrf wrote:Admins going off topic

I've sent myself a warning, Scott, and I'll let you know if I get a reply. Smart money says I won't, though that could change.

HumanWindmill wrote:

However, I'm offering 1 / 100 that nobody else gives a monkey's. Maybe that might be worth a couple of quid and a Yorkshire pudding ?

Would that be a 'giant' homemade YP or a pre-baked Aunt Bessies scab-like thing?

rowley wrote:Under normal circumstances would try it Windy but am still smarting over the tenner on Rhodes this weekend. Fortunately the mates I am watching Haye with all fancy his chances so should get chance to get that back shortly.

Much as I'd love to see Haye do it, I'm pretty sure you are going to recoup your losses, mate.

Michaels, Sean wrote:

HumanWindmill wrote:

However, I'm offering 1 / 100 that nobody else gives a monkey's. Maybe that might be worth a couple of quid and a Yorkshire pudding ?

Would that be a 'giant' homemade YP or a pre-baked Aunt Bessies scab-like thing?

Homemade of course, Sir. The odds are exceedingly generous and are worthy of the highest stakes.

HumanWindmill wrote:

rowley wrote:Under normal circumstances would try it Windy but am still smarting over the tenner on Rhodes this weekend. Fortunately the mates I am watching Haye with all fancy his chances so should get chance to get that back shortly.

Much as I'd love to see Haye do it, I'm pretty sure you are going to recoup your losses, mate.

I'd be interested to see Captain Carrauntohil's prediction on this one, also. See if he can be quite as accurate as he was on the Groves/Degale fight!

So would I, Fists.

He got everything right about that fight except the dress colour of the lady sitting immediately behind Groves' corner.

HumanWindmill wrote:So would I, Fists.

He got everything right about that fight except the dress colour of the lady sitting immediately behind Groves' corner.

The Captain needs a statue built in his honour. I'd pray to it every day.

Scottrf wrote:

HumanWindmill wrote:So would I, Fists.

He got everything right about that fight except the dress colour of the lady sitting immediately behind Groves' corner.

The Captain needs a statue built in his honour. I'd pray to it every day.

How very pious of you. You, Sir, are a shining example to the unbelievers.

HumanWindmill wrote:So would I, Fists.

He got everything right about that fight except the dress colour of the lady sitting immediately behind Groves' corner.

Ha, I'm sure he even got that almost right. He said it'd be torquoiuse when it was more of an aqua.

Guerrero wide decision - not original, but I think that he's been one of the quiet achievers of the game, and I reckon that Maidana is made to order for him. Don't think that Maidana's useless, by means, but he has only one way of fighting. Guerrero is a much more versatile operator, he carries a decent set of whiskers and a sound technique. As ever in these sorts of contests, I don't rule out a late stoppage for the better boxer - accumulation of punches can take its toll, and Khan showed that Maidana could be hurt. However, wide decision the way to bet for me.

captain carrantuohil wrote:Guerrero wide decision - not original, but I think that he's been one of the quiet achievers of the game, and I reckon that Maidana is made to order for him. Don't think that Maidana's useless, by means, but he has only one way of fighting. Guerrero is a much more versatile operator, he carries a decent set of whiskers and a sound technique. As ever in these sorts of contests, I don't rule out a late stoppage for the better boxer - accumulation of punches can take its toll, and Khan showed that Maidana could be hurt. However, wide decision the way to bet for me.

Ha, thanks for the prediction Captain, but we went slightly off topic above and started debating the upcoming Haye and Wlad fight. Thought it'd be interesting to see your opinion on that one, owing to your recent stunner for the Groves and Degale fight.

Only just noticed the preceding comments! Very kind of you to all remember one of the few occasions that I got it right, but there's always the rest of my rather spotty ledger to consider. Any statue of me would have feet of clay and would be likely covered in pigeon excrement!

As it happens, I wouldn't be troubling the bookies on Guerrero-Maidana; the odds look about right to me. I bet infrequently on boxing, but will be having a bit on a Wlad late TKO over Haye. In that case, patriotic money is making Klitschko irresistibly good value as a betting proposition (albeit not as an entertainment proposition).

Really, really hope you are wrong on this one, Captain.

Would dearly love Haye to take it to him, find a way through and dump Wlad on his backside.

Also, would rather not have the borefest you mention, seeing as I am going to the fight!

Various of the younger members of my family will be there as well, FoF. Don't think it will be dull necessarily, just a bit like Groundhog Day. I've said before that Haye still has to prove to me that he has a shot powerful enough to take out a big, proper heavyweight (so not Audley, then). If he can't do that to Wlad, he's a goner. No, I see a lot of jab, jab, right, to the point that Haye gets busted up and is stopped on his feet somewhere around the tenth. I like the 10-12 stoppage bracket that is on offer at somewhere between 10-1 and 12-1 at most bookies. However, I would counsel any Klitschko backers to wait until as close to the fight as possible before unloading. The patriotic money is likely to increase to a flood, and I can see Klitschko starting something like 4-6 to win at all. That will be outstanding value, if it happens.

Yeah I'd agree that Haye's only hope is that his right hand has the power to really upset Klitschko, though I'd like to think he is elusive enough to avoid being busted up by the jab like so many other of Wlad's opponents have been.

Have to say I am very much with the Captain on this one. Whilst I would not doubt Haye can hurt Wlad if he connects just don't see him doing it with anywhere near enough frequency to get the job done. Wlad for me has developed into an extremely well rounded fighter, certainly no picnic to watch but he has got a firm understanding of his strengths and weaknesses and has tailored his style to get the absolute maximum out of this.

Personally see Haye eating way too many jabs and being slowed to the point where he gets taken out late in the day, as I feel Wlad's jab is far more potent and hurtful than it is given credit for. Always amazes me how quickly opponents of his get discouraged, too easy to dismiss this as them being lazy or out of condition and in some cases this probably has some validity but in most cases they have been busted up to the point of discouragement. Wlad by stoppage any time after half way for me.

By the way, Jeff (and FoF, and anyone else with an opinion) don't forget the rest of your votes for our H of F, will you?

Will get it done by the end of the week Capt, there are guys in there my knowledge is not exhaustive on so want to do some research and time on youtube first.

Will do Captain, I'll take a look at that tonight in all likelihood. Cheers for the reminder.

Good man.