What is the impact of the 2011 final, on Nole, on Rafa, and for the tour?

This match was not a classic, but it did have the feel of being a historically significant match in tennis. This victory by Novak symbolizes a great many themes.

1. Novak is the best player in the world right now: After the hardcourt season, we heard he couldn't play on clay. After the clay court season we heard, ok he can play on clay but he can't win on grass. Now it is going to be hard for the detractors to do anything but give Novak his due. He has continually worked on his game, for example 26 net approach with a 70 percent success rate against the best passing shot artist of the age. Except for a third set wobble, and a ridiculous net cord in 4th set Novak was imperious on serve. This is a new and better Novak we are seeing. It doesn't matter if it is grass, if it is best of 5, if it is clay; or whatever he is the clear cut best in the world.

2. For Nadal: I think Nadal is facing his biggest challenge, and that is saying a lot for a player who has continually had to battle injuries and face down near consensus Goat roger Federer in his peak. Nadal after 10 grandslams and 8 or 9 years on the tour has to revamp his game and find a new formula. Nadal has lost 9 out of the last 10 sets to Novak. His game right now is too predictable, and more disturbing than the 5 losses in a row is the seeming inability to switch to a plan B. Nadal needs to use the short slice, drop shots, use the flat forehand up the line, and look to attack Novak more on the second serve. He did none of those things consistently yesterday. He is a great champion and a legend but he needs to move to another gameplan against Djokovic, the one guy he can't beat consistently in a long rally from the back of the court.

3. For the tour: Well the chasing pack don't have much to feel enthused about. Just when players just barely on the fringe of breaking out a grandslam thought that Roger was losing a bit of bite, all of sudden Novak explodes on to the scene as the new sheriff guarding grandslam glory. Nadal still is dominating the pack, and Novak is dominating Nadal and the rest of the pack. So that leaves players like Fed, Murray, Soderling, Berdych, Tsonga, and Del Po with few opportunities right now to break out of a new duopoly and new strangle hold at the top. Lets remember this was Novak's supposedly weaker surface. The rest of the tour really is scrambling for answers. How do you beat a guy who consistently serves well and then breaks you over 40 percent of the time? I thought this year Andy M, would break his grandslam funk. But frankly, if he has to beat both Nadal and Djoko to win a slam I think it is still a bit beyond him. As for Roger, the venerable champion missed a golden opportunity at his best slam to add to his tally. It isn't going to get easier for Roger but if anyone can still lift another title at 30, well its Roger.

Socal
I thnk the interesting thing about the match was that it wasn't even close. Djokovic absolutely dominated Rafa by 'out-Nadalling' him i.e. chase everything and make very few errors, then choose the right time to counter-attack. Rafa didn't have the answers and as a result played poorly, including what for him were a number of rash shots.

As for your points:
1 - Can't be argued with. The only question is whether this is a very good player having a great year (similar to Mac in 84) or whether it is the start of a sustained period of real dominance.

2 - It seems odd to me that Djokovic is the one person who is able to read Rafa THAT well, and then neutralise Rafa's strengths. I agree that Rafa needs to continue working on the plan B and plan C tactics, but over the last few years he has evolved his game from being running and a massive forehand to being a more rounded game, so it suggests there is scope there - I think it is more about tactics and game plan than technical changes (other than perhaps working on the service return wide on the backhand).

3 - To be honest, little has changed other than the name at the top. The slams have been essentially a duopoly since 2005, the only difference is it is now Djokovic instead of Federer who will start as the strong favourite for the quicker surface slams (and if he can hold this form and his edge over Rafa, RG will be interesting next year). Others know that to win the USO or AO, they will have to go on the sort of tear through the field that Del Potro did a couple of years ago - Federer has the talent to do it, but doesn't have the consistency he once had, whereas Murray, Tsonga, Sodeling and Berdych have shown that they can go close but so far have fallen at the final hurdle. I think Murray and Tsonga have sufficient game (in their differing ways) to beat the best, but have to believe in themselves more and have a bit of luck if they are going to take a slam in the near future.

It was especially amusing to see Nadal screwed by the right handers version of his standard tactics; serve out wide in the deuce court, and loopy forehandes into his backhand to press him back. He had no answers.

I think Fed might be forgiven for a small smile at this.

Nadal truly looked clueless, as he increasingly has against Djokovic through 2011.

dummy_half wrote:Socal

2 - It seems odd to me that Djokovic is the one person who is able to read Rafa THAT well, and then neutralise Rafa's strengths.

They can probably all read him pretty well - but there's a mountain between reading Nadal's game to devise a game-pan to counter it on the one hand versus executing that game-plan on the other. Murray has shown that he knows how to play Rafa, it's just that he can't keep it up for long enough to win - and Murray's well ahead of the rest of the chasing pack as a convincing No. 4.

barrystar

One of the things I thought in the final was that Djokovic was a step ahead so much of the time - yes, he's quick, but he also seemed to be able to set off in the right direction even as Rafa was setting up, and that extra step makes a big difference in coverage and whether the response is defensive or counter-attacking. Djokovic is better at this (against Nadal) than either Murray or Federer seem to be.

Agree though that there is also the issue of game plan - I thought Murray had it about right in the first set and a bit (liked that he serve-volleyed 2 or 3 times in the first game as well, showing the intent to be aggressive - should have used this more as a surprise tactic throughout). You can't beat Nadal without taking on the forehand at least some of the time, and that was something Andy did well. Unfortunately after the big forehand error, his confidence in the game plan and his ability to execute it waned, and Rafa got on top.

barrystar wrote:

dummy_half wrote:Socal

2 - It seems odd to me that Djokovic is the one person who is able to read Rafa THAT well, and then neutralise Rafa's strengths.

They can probably all read him pretty well - but there's a mountain between reading Nadal's game to devise a game-pan to counter it on the one hand versus executing that game-plan on the other. Murray has shown that he knows how to play Rafa, it's just that he can't keep it up for long enough to win - and Murray's well ahead of the rest of the chasing pack as a convincing No. 4.

Yes and teh difference is simply Djoko now able to stay physically with Nadal whereas before he could stay in 5 setters with him. Very simple. They all know what it takes to beat Nadal...but only one is fit enough to do it on those slow surfaces.

Even a few years back, when he was less attacking and less good, Djoko looked mentally rock solid. His cockiness and confidence was there. He may not have been able to beat Fed and Rafa for a while but he was never afraid of them or in awe of them.
It's the mental thing that's getting him through now, just as it is the mental thing that stops Andy M from getting to, or winning, GS finals.

sirfredperry wrote:Even a few years back, when he was less attacking and less good, Djoko looked mentally rock solid. His cockiness and confidence was there. He may not have been able to beat Fed and Rafa for a while but he was never afraid of them or in awe of them.
It's the mental thing that's getting him through now, just as it is the mental thing that stops Andy M from getting to, or winning, GS finals.

I so agree with that first paragraph but it;s clearly his new fitness form that gives him that mental edge now and not the other way around.

This is exactly why Murray is constantly talking about improving physically.

Tenez and Sirfred, we must also remember that Djokovic's serve was a big reason he won that match. One of Rafa's three breaks was very fortunate and net cord that dribbled over the net. Either way giving up three breaks to Rafa in 4 sets, against one of the best returners is crucial in a final. So far this wimbeldon djokovic held his serve at 90 percent clip. That is excellent serving and beyond the fitness issues, which is a big key the return of the Djokovic serve is the biggest thing that has turned this rivalry on its head.

Dummy half, I also think that Rafa can change some of his tactics to be successful against Nole. But frankly the style of his game is not a good matchup, and i think it is much easier said than done to all of a sudden change your approach 180 degrees for one player and play him completely differently than how you play everyone else on tour.