Quarter Finals and Wales

There is a lot of speculation amongst Wales fans that they face a real chance of going out in the pool stages. Which leads me onto these question. Will the Welsh be satisfied with a quarter final exit? Will or Should it keep Gatlands job safe and would a quarter final defeat depend on the opposition (i.e. Australia or Ireland).

Would you accept a quater final exit as acceptable?

red_stag wrote:There is a lot of speculation amongst Wales fans that they face a real chance of going out in the pool stages. Which leads me onto these question.

red_stag wrote:Will the Welsh be satisfied with a quarter final exit?

No, I don't think we will, I think that satisfaction with a quarter finals exit after creating a team that over the last 6 or 7 years started to show signs of actually doing something decent, competing at the upper level against top three teams in the world, winning Grandslams. A team that can do that should be able to do better at World Cups.

red_stag wrote:Will or Should it keep Gatlands job safe

I dont think Gatland's job should be culpable unless Wales fail. Quarter finals is not failure, it is mediocre

red_stag wrote:and would a quarter final defeat depend on the opposition (i.e. Australia or Ireland).

No Wales have beaten both Ireland and Australia a few times since the last world cup. They shouldn't see them as impossibilities. The only teams we haven't beaten are the ABs and SA. But we have had some strong games against them so there is hope that Wales will turn the tables.

red_stag wrote:Would you accept a quater final exit as acceptable?

As I said in answer to your first Question. NO...!

No for all the reasons stated above

Quarter final is a MINIMUM as far as I am concerned, yes we have a poor record against Samoa and Fiji BUT we are 3 places above Samoa and 6 above Fiji in the IRB rankings.

Whilst we don't have the largets pool of players we still have a fully professional league with 4 pro Regions.

With the Boks aside we should be more than capable of winning all our remaining pool games at qualifying at least 2nd in the group which would guarantee a Quarter Final slot

We should also give SA a run for the money, it would be disappointing to role over belly up 36-0 like other teams have done in their first encounter with the Bok in the RWC pool stages.

THats what I'd have expected guys. I'm amazed how many Welsh fans are taking the view of "we'll probably go out in group stages/ have a real chance of being knocked out of group stages".

Quarter Final is the minimum I;'d have though and was interested to see the reaction to achieving it but no more.

q/final is par no more no less. Suppose it depends on the manner of exit eg a close lose to the aussies would be far better than a 20 point hammering of the irish.

Both samoa and fiji will target wales as a match they can win and even namibia are a big rough side (not mentioning the physical boks)

even if we make the quarters we may have half a team out injured or we maybe battler hardened and ready to rock

I see the former more so than the later

1/4s minimum and a good performanc.e against aus/ire

I really hope we go for the win against the Boks (sure we will) but if we can win that game then it should set us up for the other games and maybe an 'easier' quarter final.

This is the pool of hard knocks. The Fijians,Samoans,Namibians and South Africans will hit the Welsh players hard. The Welsh strength in depth will be tested to the maximum.

The Namibians are led by the powerful Jacques Burger and will feed off his crunching tackles.

It will be a miracle if Wales can escape this pool unscathed.

36-0 and a trip to the final (ok it was a loss but it wasnt 36-0) or another 'heroic failure' ? hmmmmm

I think we have a good chance of qualifying top of our group if all goes well. We have had some great games against South Africa over the last four years, some close ones too.

If Wales can beat SA, I can see them having the confidence to go a long way.

Simply put, I'd say going at the groups stages would be a failure, going out at QF stage would be par, and out at the semi-final would be a good performance.

It's a rough old group, which is why I think there's a fair bit of negativity coming from the Welsh fans. Wales do though have the players to do well.

I'd say Scotland have a tougher draw in getting to the QF. Having England and Argentina in the same group gives us more problems, and we don't have anything like the talent in the backs that Wales do.

It is great how the psyche of humans work.

No we won't make the quarters, but just maybe.
Well if we make the quarters we could lose to Australia
Well maybe we can give SA a good game.
Well maybe we can beat them
Of course we can beat them, we had some close games against them in the past few years.

Well if we beat them we can have an "easier" quarter final.

Well if we have an easier quarter final, we might go a long way.

To me that is how we should be, if our players don't believe they can win, they won't.

I think we should be beating south africa. We have been close to them without actually playing great tactics or as well as we are able. They're not the indistructable side they used to be so we should be able to beat them but we always blow it.

FES

The difference between wales and scotland is the forwards. Scotland get some really good go forward from the pack whereas Wales all too often get really good go backward or stop from their pack. doesn't matter who the backs are if your forwards aren't able to take the ball up

mckay1402 wrote:FES

The difference between wales and scotland is the forwards. Scotland get some really good go forward from the pack whereas Wales all too often get really good go backward or stop from their pack. doesn't matter who the backs are if your forwards aren't able to take the ball up

I wouldn't necessarily say Scotland have better forwards than Wales, in fact based on the last 6 Nations, I don't think that's the case at all. Where Scotland have had some success in recent years (against Argentina, South Africa, Australia and Ireland) has been because we have a balanced pack with forwards working as units and complimenting each other, added to which, we've had big backs helping out with ball retention and half backs focused on controlling the game through kicking, rather than being particularly creative. That has given us some success.

Where Wales have fallen short in recent seasons has been trying to find the right blend of players in the pack, which has recently found itself in transition, and trying to maximise the potent resources available in the backs. As far as the pack goes, much encouragment can be drawn from the new back row, who are young, powerful and balanced, and also in finding a proper hard enforcer to power the engine room in Bradley Davies. Bradley Davies and Alan Wyn Jones, combined with the new back row and the Lions front row should finally give Wales both a collection of talented individuals in the pack, but more importantly a pack that looks complimentary and balanced. I still think the backs could be better co-ordinated, but if Gatland can get Henson back into the fold, then Hook at 10, and a Henson/Roberts centre pairing going, then I fail to see why Wales shouldn't seriously believe that they can top that group.

At the end of the day, Wales have outperformed Scotland over the last couple of years whilst failing to maximise their resources, so I'm not suggesting we dwell too long on the comparison.

My own view is that Scotland vs Wales in the forwards comes to about 7 vs 7.5, whereas in the backs (on potential) it's more like 6 vs. 8.

funnyExiledScot wrote:
Where Scotland have had some success in recent years (against Argentina, South Africa, Australia and Ireland) has been because we have a balanced pack with forwards working as units and complimenting each other, added to which, we've had big backs helping out with ball retention and half backs focused on controlling the game through kicking, rather than being particularly creative. That has given us some success.

You can also add to that the fact that SA was poor unimaginative and predictable last autumn.

I think that SA are the fulcrum of this group and I am eagerly awaiting what happens to them in the tri nations. They have allegedly picked a weakened squad for the start of the Tri Nats and I wonder whether there are changes a foot.

If they aren't as hot as we anticipate and Wales can garner a victory it would be a big surprise to many.

biltongbek wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:
Where Scotland have had some success in recent years (against Argentina, South Africa, Australia and Ireland) has been because we have a balanced pack with forwards working as units and complimenting each other, added to which, we've had big backs helping out with ball retention and half backs focused on controlling the game through kicking, rather than being particularly creative. That has given us some success.

You can also add to that the fact that SA was poor unimaginative and predictable last autumn.

Indeed, in fact both South Africa and Australia were poor in their defeats to us, and both played into our hands in terms of defence. But still, credit wher credit is due, we stuck firmly to our guns where many (better) NH teams have failed. South Africa have been dull and unimaginative against us in the past, and we've still contrived to lose.

funnyExiledScot wrote:

biltongbek wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:
Where Scotland have had some success in recent years (against Argentina, South Africa, Australia and Ireland) has been because we have a balanced pack with forwards working as units and complimenting each other, added to which, we've had big backs helping out with ball retention and half backs focused on controlling the game through kicking, rather than being particularly creative. That has given us some success.

You can also add to that the fact that SA was poor unimaginative and predictable last autumn.

Indeed, in fact both South Africa and Australia were poor in their defeats to us, and both played into our hands in terms of defence. But still, credit wher credit is due, we stuck firmly to our guns where many (better) NH teams have failed. South Africa have been dull and unimaginative against us in the past, and we've still contrived to lose.

You can only play the team in front of you?

funnyExiledScot wrote:

biltongbek wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:
Where Scotland have had some success in recent years (against Argentina, South Africa, Australia and Ireland) has been because we have a balanced pack with forwards working as units and complimenting each other, added to which, we've had big backs helping out with ball retention and half backs focused on controlling the game through kicking, rather than being particularly creative. That has given us some success.

You can also add to that the fact that SA was poor unimaginative and predictable last autumn.

Indeed, in fact both South Africa and Australia were poor in their defeats to us, and both played into our hands in terms of defence. But still, credit wher credit is due, we stuck firmly to our guns where many (better) NH teams have failed. South Africa have been dull and unimaginative against us in the past, and we've still contrived to lose.

Absolutely, that's why I believe those who write off Scotland's chances in this RWC, are a tad foolish.

They have qualified for every quarter final since the inception of the RWC, something their more illustrious celtic neighbours have not.

"They have qualified for every quarter final since the inception of the RWC, something their more illustrious celtic neighbours have not"


We don't have "more illustrious celtic neighbours"

funnyExiledScot wrote:"They have qualified for every quarter final since the inception of the RWC, something their more illustrious celtic neighbours have not"


We don't have "more illustrious celtic neighbours"

I beg to differ, if you read these websites, their supporters believe so.

I'll be honest, I don't think we'll lose to either Fiji or Samoa. Gatland won't be daft enough to get into a loose game with them. The only worry I have is if we kick loose (like we tend to often), as our chase is never good enough to close down players. The only other thing is when the hits start flying about, we need to stand up to it. Most of the people that played Fiji in the Autumn (not our first team though), certainly didn't.

In a way, I wish we were playing Tonga instead of playing one of the England games, so Gatland can see again who will hide when the hits fly about. Playing England twice doesn't really benefit us, but then I guess getting the Tongans over would be a logistical nightmare.

we must make the 1/4s

we must play our best side against south africa and go all out for the win. i cant see wales getting thorugh the pool unbeaten but wales must get out of the group. there can be no excuses.

as for the 1/4s. ire or aus, it doesnt matter, it will be a very tough match. but a game wales could win, if they believe thay can win.

i still hold out hope that wales can make the final, (where they will get destroyed by the allblacks.)

1/4 final is minimum i agree, i believe wales can top their group, SA although are a good team, Wales Can beat them and then get to the quarters where we play either Ireland or Aus, both of whom we have and can beat.

maestegmafia wrote:We should also give SA a run for the money, it would be disappointing to role over belly up 36-0 like other teams have done in their first encounter with the Bok in the RWC pool stages.

Yes that was a disappointing result. Still at least we didnt concede 90 odd points and we did slightly better than 36-0 the next time we played them, in the final. Surely the dissapointment that you want to avoid is getting knocked out in thee pool stages? Furthermore, you dont get to play all your games at home like you did last time. You actually have to leave Wales and travel to New Zealand like the other teams. Uh oh!!

damngoodOvalball wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:We should also give SA a run for the money, it would be disappointing to role over belly up 36-0 like other teams have done in their first encounter with the Bok in the RWC pool stages.

Yes that was a disappointing result. Still at least we didnt concede 90 odd points and we did slightly better than 36-0 the next time we played them, in the final.

Yes I hope that even if we dont beat them we get an easy run after the pools.

I'd say Wales are about 50-50 to get out of the pool stage, but will go no further after that. Just my opinion.

The real problem for Wales is strength in depth.

If they lose Cap'n Hook,Jenkins or Adam Jones their chances of progressing are greatly reduced. That's their main playmaker and scrum.

In this group injuries are inevitable. Wales cannot afford to rotate players except possibly against Namibia.

Fiji and Samoa would love to play a weakened Wales. Wales simply cannot risk doing that.

What's the schedule? Any chance of a softened up Wales for these two?

Another problem for Wales is that Samoa and Fiji will have virtual home support.

Also will Gatland make the right decisions? Will he continue with highly overrated players like Byrne,Phillips and R.Jones?

Agree about the strength in depth issue.

Don't Wales play SA first? In which case maybe they should rest some key players in a game they have next to no chance of winning and concentrate on coming second in the pool?

They may then beat Samoa/Fiji and progress. It's not a very positive outlook but may be their best hope. They've fallen down trying different tactics before.

Is virtual home support some sort of holographic projection? Cos that would be cool!

Carpe Diem wrote:Is virtual home support some sort of holographic projection? Cos that would be cool!

"Help me, Obi-Wan Kenobi. You're my only hope..."

Results from the Pacific Nations Cup have muddied the water somewhat .

Tonga 45 - 21 Fiji
Japan 15 - 34 Samoa
Tonga 27 - 28 Japan
Samoa 18 - 36 Fiji

Beforehand I believe the perceived 'wisdom' was that we should see off Fiji quite comfortably and that the 'main' game would be against Samoa. I don't go along with the theory that "Quarter finals is not failure, it is mediocre". We are 7th in the world for a reason, and on that basis a quarter-final would be 'par for the course'. Samoa (10th) have bitten us on the ar$e not once but twice at the RWC and the pain of 2007 is still there with regard to Fiji (12th), so we should respect them but not fear them and above all don't get sucked in to playing their game. Namibia is going to be physically tough and is sandwiched between the Samoa & Fiji games, so some interesting selection choices for that one. The opening game is critical, not so much in terms of results (we have after all only beaten RSA once) but in terms of performance and the tactics employed

In summary
Pool stages - disaster (I have tickets for both the quarter-finals that Wales could potentially be in down in Wellington)
Quarter-finals in 2nd place - level par
Quarter-finals top of the pool - very good

Well after that, it's knockout rugby and anything can happen - usually the expected happens but not always

As much as losing players like Jenkins and Jones would be a huge blow I would be confident that James and Mitchell could do the job.

James has made a lot of people (me included) eat our words whilst Mitchell looked very good before his injury in the AIs.

As beshocked mentioned Gatlands selection on the whole could be more worrying.

PenfroPete wrote:usually the expected happens but not always

Can I put that on a T-Shirt or do you have the rights, Penfro?

SafeAsMilk wrote:Agree about the strength in depth issue.

Don't Wales play SA first? In which case maybe they should rest some key players in a game they have next to no chance of winning and concentrate on coming second in the pool?

They may then beat Samoa/Fiji and progress. It's not a very positive outlook but may be their best hope. They've fallen down trying different tactics before.

Next to no chance of winning ? Ok we haven't had a win over SA for a while but we haven't been thumped by them recently either.

Realistically Wales should reach the quarters in 2nd place but anything could happen. Against South Africa you should throw caution to the wind, they are expected to win so the pressure is on them.

Who are your backups if you lose for example Warburton who I think is a really bright prospect for you?

You need to play the game the Welsh way - it seems as if in the last couple of years the players and Gatland don't have a gameplan/strategy.

It should be simple for you really - pick a scrum half with a quick pass like Rees and Peel, Hook at fly half to control the game and add some attacking flair. Use Roberts and Davies to make ground and create things. Pick an actual full back.

Retain possession. It seems like sometimes the Welsh players mindlessly kick away the ball - Samoa and Fiji will love that.

Generate quick ball at the breakdown to feed the backs. In Lydiate and Warburton you have a good 6 and 7.

If you keep hold of the ball more you will frustate the opposition.

A confident Welsh side are tough to stop but this side's confidence is absolutely shot in my opinion.

In 2003 RWC the Welsh side lost but they played with confidence and gave England and New Zealand a scare. In 2011 Wales need to play more like that.

I didn't say Wales would get thumped. Wales haven't beaten SA even at home in a long while and on neutral territory it will be very difficult. Ok, I'll upgrade it to 'very little chance of winning'

SafeAsMilk wrote:I didn't say Wales would get thumped. Wales haven't beaten SA even at home in a long while and on neutral territory it will be very difficult. Ok, I'll upgrade it to 'very little chance of winning'

That's more like it

SafeAsMilk wrote: Can I put that on a T-Shirt or do you have the rights, Penfro?

I'll let you use it now you've revised your 'no chance of winning' for Wales v RSA. to 'very little chance' - which is accurate based on the history between the 2 (P24, W1, D1, L22 - although from 1970 -to 1994 they never played, so may have got a win if they played during that period)

However, last 3 games would indicate an outside chance
Wales 15-20 S Africa
Wales 31-34 S Africa
Wales 25-29 S Africa

There's always a chance (see slogan above for further details ) or in the words of an old friend on these boards - BELIEVE !!!

Penfro, speaking of him, we passed another Care Home for the Elderly on our trip home which looked like it would suit him nicely!

i think wales will have a great chance against southafrica. recent results (as shown above) suggest there is not much between the teams.

if wales do beat southafrica i could see them losing to one of the south sea island teams.

beating south africa would be a huge boost but even then i dont imagine wales will go though the pool unbeaten.

but we will make the quaters

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Penfro, speaking of him, we passed another Care Home for the Elderly on our trip home which looked like it would suit him nicely!

missed the Auld Goat mind Him and 'herself' would have been the icing on a most excellent

Wales vs South Africa record since the last RWC

Wales 12- 34 SA 2007

SA 43 - 17 Wales 2008
SA 37 - 21 Wales 2008
Wales 15 - 20 SA 2008

Wales 31 - 34 SA 2010
Wales 25 - 29 SA 2010

Maesteg, do you have your record against Oz to hand? Sorry for being lazy

Considering injuries and so on, some of those results aren't bad. But it is a tough hurdle. SA are far more consistent and clinical than Wales.

But I do believe Wales have a chance. I certainly don't believe the moronic suggestion above that they should field a weakened team against SA

maestegmafia wrote:Considering injuries and so on, some of those results aren't bad. But it is a tough hurdle. SA are far more consistent and clinical than Wales.

But I do believe Wales have a chance. I certainly don't believe the moronic suggestion above that they should field a weakened team against SA

As long as you take the field there's always a chance

Fielding a weakened team didn't do the Scots (or the ABs) any favours in '07. Given the mess up over the kits*, the Scots might have pinched that game with a full strength side.


*I'm dreading what Adidas might do to the ABs 2nd strip this year, the ones they produced for SuperXV were attrocious

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Maesteg, do you have your record against Oz to hand? Sorry for being lazy

Oz 29 - 23 WAL 2007
OZ 31 - 0 WAL 2007

WAL 20 - 32 OZ 2008
WAL 21 - 18 OZ 2008

WAL 12 - 33 OZ 2009

WAL 16 - 25 OZ 2010

"moronic" - how very dare you!

maesteg, I'd stop putting up those Wales scores against the Tri-Nations, it's only going to depress folk.