Who will be be the Biggest team to EXIT the RWC early..?

Many teams have stumbled before the form book has said they should, surprise wins in pool groups have put highly seeded teams in second place. Or even a second place team from the pools finally clicking into gear in the Quarters have seen a top seed exit early.

An impressive England team fell to Jannie de Beers impressive five drop goals for SA in 99, Wales beaten by impressive an Fijian team in 07 and a strong Samoan team in 99 and 91. New Zealand falling apart in the second half against the French who had previously lost to Argentina in 07 or again to the french in one of the greatest games ever in 99. England stepping it up against the Aussies in 07 and 95 in the quarters.

This always adds an unexpected element to the form book.

Possibilities this year?

Pool A France could fall at the hands of strong looking Tonga and Japan?

Pool B England may stumble to Scotland and Argentina?

Pool C Australia could underestimate Ireland, Italy or even the little known but impressive Russians?

Pool D SA could lose to any of Fiji, Samoa or Wales?

I can see one of SA/Wales dropping to either Fiji/Samoa and this really is a pool of death. Forget not that these games will be home games for Fiji and Samoa with big populations in NZ, I have a feeling they will both be humming come the tournament

I think Fiji and Samoa are going to be very competitive. They have everything to play for.

I think Scotland could pull off a shock result too, I think they are getting very close to getting a winning formula they just need that bit more cutting edge and I think Ansbro, evans, Gray etc are players who could give them that edge.

Wales would be my choice Maestegmafia

Can't see SA slipping up against anybody in their group, although its true that they perhaps aren't the team they were last time out. The biggest chance of an upset (would it REALLY be an upset?) in that group is Wales to go home early, in fact, its a distinct possibility.

Scotland could pull off a shock result but I doubt it, that assumes that England havent really made progress, which they have and that Argentina have improved, which they havent. Plus, Scotland's record against England away from Murrayfield isn't exactly stella is it.

Australia have a tricky group, but are Ireland REALLY that good? Consistently I mean?

France would have to implode in a big way to lose to either Tonga or Japan. Can't see any shocks here.

Pete, absolutely agree re Scotland. They are capable on their day however outside of ansbro (who I rate) and evans they lack a cutting edge. Dan parks is a poor, poor flyhalf also but beggars/choosers etc

I suppose it depends by what you mean by "big" and "early"....

Personally I think that the pumas may KO Scotland or England and you wouldn't bet on Samoa turning over either Wales or SA.

Italy could spring a nasty surprise on Ireland or even Australia.

This could be the closest WC yet and I don't thing anyone can take their place in the latter stages of the tournament for granted.

IRB World Rankings - 11 July 2011 Position (last week) Member Union Rating Point
1(1) NEW ZEALAND 93.19
2(2) AUSTRALIA 87.45
3(3) SOUTH AFRICA 86.44
4(4) IRELAND 82.51
5(5) ENGLAND 82.48
6(6) FRANCE 82.06
7(7) WALES 79.55
8(8) ARGENTINA 78.97
9(9) SCOTLAND 77.35
10(10) SAMOA 73.90


Based on the above, the biggest team to go out early would probably be Ireland as they play Australia and South Africa between the pool and quarters, both ranked ahead of them.

"are Ireland REALLY that good? Consistently I mean?"

Possibly

chewed_mintie wrote:Pete, absolutely agree re Scotland. They are capable on their day however outside of ansbro (who I rate) and evans they lack a cutting edge. Dan parks is a poor, poor flyhalf also but beggars/choosers etc

chewed, fortunately Desperate is unlikely to start, I expect it will be Ruaridh Jackson; outside of scrumhalf, its not the most dangerous of backlines tho

In terms of rankings one of the top 9 has to drop out of Englands group.
Its most likely that the others top sides will all make it through, although Samoa are a threat to Wales.
It would be a big suprise to see anyone outside the top 10 make it through to the quarters though. I cant see France being troubled by Japan or Tonga, dont let the Pislands cup fool you they are a long way behind.

I can see England exiting. A Youngs/Flood combination stutters as it has in previous big games, and the World Cup proves to be too brighter stage for them, resulting in the whole squad packing up early.

My prediction is that Wales will go out at the group stage. It's a rotten group that.

My outside bet would be France. Lievremont is such a dreadful coach, and both Tonga and Japan will give a poorly selected France side a tough time, especially if French morale is dented by an All Blacks thrashing (which I predict they'll receive).

ireland will have a tough last pool game against italy, and ireland are the 'biggest' (most highly ranked) NH team.

it could be that the winner of ire V ita takes second place in the pool. and if italy play like they did against france in the 6n......

roddersm wrote:I suppose it depends by what you mean by "big" and "early"....

Personally I think that the pumas may KO Scotland or England and you wouldn't bet on Samoa turning over either Wales or SA.

Italy could spring a nasty surprise on Ireland or even Australia.

This could be the closest WC yet and I don't thing anyone can take their place in the latter stages of the tournament for granted.

I agree with the last comment, it will be one of the closest WC's yet, but while Samoa/Argentina/Italy/Fiji are getting closer to Wales/Ireland/Scotland, there is still an uncomfortable gap up to England and France (in RWC tournaments) and then onwards to SA/Oz/NZ.

"there is still an uncomfortable gap up to England and France (in RWC tournaments)"

What has previous Tournament got to do with this WC.

There is no gap between 4th to 7th in the World Rankings

Looseheaded wrote:I can see England exiting. A Youngs/Flood combination stutters as it has in previous big games, and the World Cup proves to be too brighter stage for them, resulting in the whole squad packing up early.

Yeah, you wish, even a misfiring England pairing at 9/10 should be too much for their group opponents. Don't try and wish Wales' almost certain early exit on England to make yourself feel better.

Great White, the fact that England are by no means guaranteed to go through their group unbeaten has nothing to do with Wales.

thebandwagonsociety wrote:IRB World Rankings - 11 July 2011 Position (last week) Member Union Rating Point
1(1) NEW ZEALAND 93.19
2(2) AUSTRALIA 87.45
3(3) SOUTH AFRICA 86.44
4(4) IRELAND 82.51
5(5) ENGLAND 82.48
6(6) FRANCE 82.06
7(7) WALES 79.55
8(8) ARGENTINA 78.97
9(9) SCOTLAND 77.35
10(10) SAMOA 73.90


Based on the above, the biggest team to go out early would probably be Ireland as they play Australia and South Africa between the pool and quarters, both ranked ahead of them.

Interesting way to look at it, but I dont think failing to make a 1/2 final would be seen as early exit even if their 4th place ranking means they should be there.

Scotland and Samoa have the best chances of sneaking into the last 8 above their ranking, England and Wales have the biggest chances of failing to make the last 8 despite their rankings.

I guess its not impossible that South Africa will somehow implode and completly mess up their group, but I find it prettly unlikley. No serious threats to Austrlia NZ France or Irleand in the groups.

luckless_pedestrian wrote:Great White, the fact that England are by no means guaranteed to go through their group unbeaten has nothing to do with Wales.

It does when its wishfull thinking...

dogtooth wrote:ireland will have a tough last pool game against italy, and ireland are the 'biggest' (most highly ranked) NH team.

it could be that the winner of ire V ita takes second place in the pool. and if italy play like they did against france in the 6n......

IF Italy play like they did against France then Ireland still only have to peform marginaly better than France did ( atrociusly) to win.
It would be a huge upset. If you accpet that as a possibility you have to also accept that Ireland have a chance of beating Australia, which would mena theyd still qualify anyway in all probablility.

Great White wrote:

Looseheaded wrote:I can see England exiting. A Youngs/Flood combination stutters as it has in previous big games, and the World Cup proves to be too brighter stage for them, resulting in the whole squad packing up early.

Yeah, you wish, even a misfiring England pairing at 9/10 should be too much for their group opponents. Don't try and wish Wales' almost certain early exit on England to make yourself feel better.

Yes I so wish, but it's based on previous showings this season. Ireland vs England, both players were diabolical, with Youngs spectacularly imploding all over the turf, and Flood missing kicks left right and centre. Neither were much good in the HC when they were knocked out, oh, and neither shone during the Aviva final this year. So yes, they are competant players, but not when the heat's truly on. Oh and yes, because England's chances of being knocked out by Argentina and/or Scotland is completely hand in hand with Wales and their group.... Honestly, people these days.

BATH_BTGOG wrote:Wales would be my choice Maestegmafia

Thanks for suggesting we are a big team...!

I think the Scot/Eng/Arg will throw up surprises and everyones focus seems to be on the Fiji/Samoa/Wales/S.Africa pool.

caoimhincentre wrote:"there is still an uncomfortable gap up to England and France (in RWC tournaments)"

What has previous Tournament got to do with this WC.

There is no gap between 4th to 7th in the World Rankings

Much as I'd love to say otherwise, Ireland tend to underperform at RWC. I know WC form shouldn't mean anything. The same as 20 reds on a roulette wheel in a row doesn't mean anything on the next spin. But some teams are able to cope with the pressures of big competitions and while Ireland has not. I'd also say that England and France have better records in going up against 3N teams than ourselves but consistent results against the 3Ns in the SH is something Ireland still lack. Thats why I put us behind England/France as they are more likely to get results against the 3N teams.

Looseheaded wrote:. Oh and yes, because England's chances of being knocked out by Argentina and/or Scotland is completely hand in hand with Wales and their group.... Honestly, people these days.

If you truly belive that to be the case, then I would suggest delusion is your main problem...

The shocks for me would be if England didn't get to the QF, or any of the top two in the other pools.

I would be a shock if Aus, SA or NZ didn't get through to the semi's. It'll be a shock if New Zealand don't make the final. All of the rest is pretty even.

Slight point, there is no and/or. england can only be knocked out by Scotland AND Argentina.

There is too much faith put in pervious world cups. They will have no barring on this WC.

If past tournaments had anything to do with how a team plays in the present or the future why would any other team bother.

You can make the same argument for the HC. Munster and Leinster were notorious under achievers pre 06. Look at both teams now.

I'll say it again how Ireland performed in previous world Cups will have zero barring on this one

Great White wrote:

Looseheaded wrote:. Oh and yes, because England's chances of being knocked out by Argentina and/or Scotland is completely hand in hand with Wales and their group.... Honestly, people these days.

If you truly belive that to be the case, then I would suggest delusion is your main problem...

You're the one who has suggested that England's chances for some reason have something to do with Wales, not me, you've just taken a quote out of context, and ignored the rest of what I said, because it's either rung true, or you failed to understand it. So well done there mate, take an out of context quote and still fail to make a valid point.

Well said, Caoimhin.

Loosehead agree with you there.

Great white is taking what you said completely out of context

I think we're all in for dissapointment really, as good as Samoa's game was on the weekend i can't see any real surprises in the WC.

Expect the top teams to get through as normal and Italy etc to get booted out, i think even Wales will manage to do better this time.

The only question for me is Argentina or Scotland for second place.

caoimhincentre wrote:There is too much faith put in pervious world cups. They will have no barring on this WC.

If past tournaments had anything to do with how a team plays in the present or the future why would any other team bother.

You can make the same argument for the HC. Munster and Leinster were notorious under achievers pre 06. Look at both teams now.

I'll say it again how Ireland performed in previous world Cups will have zero barring on this one

I'd say Ireland's performance closer related to the fact they've got Australia in their group and if they don't beat them they've got South Africa (probably). And it would be New Zealand in semi.

If however they beat Australia, they'll probably get Wales in QF and, if England do them a favour, they could get England instead of France in the semi. Is there any team with a realistic chance getting to the semi that Ireland would prefer to play?

That Australia game is going to make a big difference won't it? It would be relatively amusing if you did top the group but both SA and NZ messed up and you got them anyway.

Pool A - Can't see beyond a NZ win and France 2nd. Simply too talented and professional for the Tongans and Japanese.

Pool B - Probably the pool with the 3 closest matched teams competing for 2 spaces. Still think England are 80% likely to win the group, but Scotland and Argentina are too close to choose between for the RU spot.

Pool C - Depends on which Ireland turn up. If they can be as up for the game as they were against England, they could turn over the Aussies. Alternatively, they could produce the same level of dross as they did early in the 6Ns and come under serious threat from Italy. Past RWC form (and I know that has minimal relevance to this year's tournament) would suggest the latter and perhaps an early exit, but I actually expect a really good performance from the Irish this time. So the 'shock' would be the Aussies only going through as runners up, and so making an all Tri Nations quarter final.

Pool D - Can't see the Saffers having too many problems in winning the group. Wales will have to play pretty well (and avoid too many injuries) to get past Samoa - they should, but I wouldn't bet my life savings on it.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:

dogtooth wrote:ireland will have a tough last pool game against italy, and ireland are the 'biggest' (most highly ranked) NH team.

it could be that the winner of ire V ita takes second place in the pool. and if italy play like they did against france in the 6n......

IF Italy play like they did against France then Ireland still only have to peform marginaly better than France did ( atrociusly) to win.
It would be a huge upset. If you accpet that as a possibility you have to also accept that Ireland have a chance of beating Australia, which would mena theyd still qualify anyway in all probablility.

I would say the chances of italy beating Ireland are slightly better than Ireland beating Oz....

Boyne wrote:
I would say the chances of italy beating Ireland are slightly better than Ireland beating Oz....

Honestly? Because If Id said that I wouldve been shouted down by the Irishlanders.
Ireland are one place behind Australia (once the Samoa result is included), Italy are 8 places and 9 ranking points behind Ireland.
The boys in green might as well not bother to turn up if they think they are closer to Italy than they are to Australia. England and Samoa have recently beaten Australia. No reason Ireland cant. Sure they wont be favourites but honestlly do you think they are more likely to go out at the group stage than they are to top the group?

Ireland should beat Italy. Its not a game that should be taken lightly though.

caoimhincentre wrote:Ireland should beat Italy. Its not a game that should be taken lightly though.

Agreed but you could also say that Australia should beat Ireland but it's not a game that Australia should take likely.

I would say both outcomes are equally plausible and the most likely is that Ireland will beat Italy and lose to Australia. It would be foolish and disrespectful to believe that we can beat Australia (which I do) but dismiss the notion that Italy can beat us.

roddersm wrote:

caoimhincentre wrote:Ireland should beat Italy. Its not a game that should be taken lightly though.

Agreed but you could also say that Australia should beat Ireland but it's not a game that Australia should take likely.

I would say both outcomes are equally plausible and the most likely is that Ireland will beat Italy and lose to Australia. It would be foolish and disrespectful to believe that we can beat Australia (which I do) but dismiss the notion that Italy can beat us.

+1.

Do i think we can beat Italy? Yes.

Would i be taking the match for granted? Not a hope. I think we got enough of a warning in Rome this year.

roddersm wrote:

caoimhincentre wrote:Ireland should beat Italy. Its not a game that should be taken lightly though.

Agreed but you could also say that Australia should beat Ireland but it's not a game that Australia should take likely.

I would say both outcomes are equally plausible and the most likely is that Ireland will beat Italy and lose to Australia. It would be foolish and disrespectful to believe that we can beat Australia (which I do) but dismiss the notion that Italy can beat us.

Its 50-50 rodders....point of view either way....

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:
England and Samoa have recently beaten Australia. No reason Ireland cant.

That's the attitude we should have. Australia are one of the most dangerous sides in the tournament. But their results over the last two years clearly show they are beatable.

Anyway, Ireland could lose to Australia and Italy and go home early. England could lose to Scotland and Argentina. And Wales are obviously in a very dangerous group. So Ireland, England and Wales are the three most likely shock early exits.

Great White wrote:

Looseheaded wrote:. Oh and yes, because England's chances of being knocked out by Argentina and/or Scotland is completely hand in hand with Wales and their group.... Honestly, people these days.

If you truly belive that to be the case, then I would suggest delusion is your main problem...

And perhaps a one-eyed arrogant streak may be your main problem? Going by your comments you seem to think England are invincible in their world cup group... I thought loosehead's comments were fair; no need to try and attempt to drag him down to your level because you disagree..

caoimhincentre wrote:There is no gap between 4th to 7th in the World Rankings

I think you are right and this is all pretty exciting stuff. Only 5.16 points separates the six places between 4th and 9th, and as you say it is even closer between 4th and seventh who are separated by only 2.96 points.

That is very close indeed. In comparison in 2007 4th to 9th was separated by 9.99 points.

Japan have moved up the board this week to 12th in the rankings less than a point behind Italy. That is a leap of three places since April 2011. They look like a bigger threat than people imagine.

nottins_jones wrote:

Great White wrote:

Looseheaded wrote:. Oh and yes, because England's chances of being knocked out by Argentina and/or Scotland is completely hand in hand with Wales and their group.... Honestly, people these days.

If you truly belive that to be the case, then I would suggest delusion is your main problem...

And perhaps a one-eyed arrogant streak may be your main problem? Going by your comments you seem to think England are invincible in their world cup group... I thought loosehead's comments were fair; no need to try and attempt to drag him down to your level because you disagree..

Please lads can we just have a discussion about rugby, keeping it positive and not have anyone turn this into a "bun fight"...?

Thanks
MM

maestegmafia wrote:

caoimhincentre wrote:There is no gap between 4th to 7th in the World Rankings

I think you are right and this is all pretty exciting stuff. Only 5.16 points separates the six places between 4th and 9th, and as you say it is even closer between 4th and seventh who are separated by only 2.96 points.

That is very close indeed. In comparison in 2007 4th to 9th was separated by 9.99 points.

Japan have moved up the board this week to 12th in the rankings less than a point behind Italy. That is a leap of three places since April 2011. They look like a bigger threat than people imagine.

Agree. For me its a good thing that the groups are more competitive. It makes for a far more interesting world cup.

For me there are far more games that i will be watching in the group stages than i did for the last world cup.

The English/Scotland, Welsh and Irish groups are extremely exciting as is the French and NZ

maestegmafia wrote:

BATH_BTGOG wrote:Wales would be my choice Maestegmafia

Thanks for suggesting we are a big team...!

You are to Samoa, Fuji and Namibia;)

Have a look at the rankings pre 2007 tournament...

New Zealand out in front by 6.37 points only to go out in the quarters. The next group of Australia, France and SA all close Australia also went out in the quarters, France were runners up in their group, SA eventual winners. Ireland, Argentina and England were all close going into the tournament, Argentina and england were semi finalists, Ireland out in the Pool Stages.

1(1) NEW ZEALAND 93.37
2(2) AUSTRALIA 87.00
3(3) FRANCE 86.83
4(4) SOUTH AFRICA 85.36
5(5) IRELAND 80.99
6(6) ARGENTINA 80.71
7(7) ENGLAND 78.83
8(8) WALES 76.33
9(9) ITALY 75.37
10(10) SCOTLAND 74.88
11(11) SAMOA 74.85
12(12) CANADA 70.81
13(13) FIJI 70.47
14(14) USA 67.75
15(15) TONGA 67.48
16(16) ROMANIA 66.67
17(17) GEORGIA 66.12
18(18) JAPAN 65.79
19(19) RUSSIA 64.25
20(20) URUGUAY 63.18
21(21) SPAIN 62.30
22(22) PORTUGAL 62.11

No where near as close as it all is right now

BATH_BTGOG wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:

BATH_BTGOG wrote:Wales would be my choice Maestegmafia

Thanks for suggesting we are a big team...!

You are to Samoa, Fuji and Namibia;)

Man for man they all three of those are on average not only taller but I think heavier too...

IMO the IRB rankings are a poor guide for what is going to happen in a knock out, pressure cooker situation

BATH_BTGOG wrote:IMO the IRB rankings are a poor guide for what is going to happen in a knock out, pressure cooker situation

Actually they're not. If you look back at the last WC based on the rankings there were no major upsets bar England beating France and Australia and Fiji beating Wales.

Argentina, France and Ireland were all close on the rankings and Argentina performed the best. France beating the AB's was an upset but don't forget France were the host team.

Other than that most of the results went to form.