RWC 2011 Pool A speculation...!

Pool A

Canada (16) 69.78
France (6) 82.06
Japan (12) 72.56
New Zealand (1) 93.19
Tonga (13) 71.80


Form team in this group going solely by the IRB rankings are New Zealand, on form its New Zealand, at the bookies it's New Zealand. To be fair we would all say they are a pretty damn good side.

France would be second favourites, they came 2nd in the Six Nations with wins over Wales, Ireland and Scotland but losing to eventual winners England and bottom of the table italy.

Japan are now currently sitting as third favourites after a fantastic Pacific Nations Cup losing to Samoa but beating Tonga and Fiji.

Tonga are a very close fourth favourite to Japan recently coming second in the PINC losing to Japan and beating Fiji and Samoa.

Canada are holding up the bottom of this pool though they were second in the Churchill Cup 2011 to the England Saxons.

Good post. Puts things into perspective for the group. The good thing is all the teams have prepared by involving themselves, with merit, in recent tournaments.

Good section to be in and for perhaps the first time we wont have these 80-100 point nonsense wins.

If Samoa is an example of the Pacific cup standard then thats awesome.

I agree with your sentiments. Although the Kiwis dont have an amazing track record against the French at world cups, (sorry kiwis for bringing that up again, you are all too easily reminded of it but it is a re-occuring phenomenon), the Kiwis should win every game.

The same can not be said for the teams below them in the pool, I think Japan and Tonga could easily scare or even beat the French, judging by the French result in Rome this Spring and could well knock them out earlier than expected...!

Then again, what if the French jinx on the Kiwis kicks in and they get a surprise victory over the pool favourites, while Japan or Tonga beat the french it could leave this pool open.

All speculative stuff and much of it unlikely to go against the copy book.

Least you forget France don`t have an amazing track record against New
Zealand either it is 2-2 and no other side fom NH has beaten them either.
France after beating the All Blacks in 1999 and 2007 just did`nt turn up in the next round.
If France were to beat the All Blacks at the pool stage they would`nt meet again to the Final if both sides get that far.
From the AB`s perspective that might give them an easier road to a final,as I can`t see them not at least qualifying and England,Scotland or Argentina would suit them just fine.

emack2 wrote:Least you forget France don`t have an amazing track record against New
Zealand either it is 2-2 and no other side fom NH has beaten them either.

Frances track record since they won the Grandslam in 2010 has been very up and down. I think Leivremont has capped more players in his last four years than any other coach in rugby history has awarded caps in the same time period, and by quite some margin.

On paper and on form, I simply can't see the ABs losing to France again. We all know France has the ability to beat the ABs, but the Leivremont factor makes it a bridge too far for me. For the other three teams, I am hoping Canada are able to put up a good performance against Japan, and possibly Tonga as well. Otherwise, I see serious beatings for them vs. France and the ABs.

To be frank, I would be amazed if the All Blacks don't win both the Tri-Nations and the RWC this year, not only are they a great squad of players and the coaches have been to a few world cups before and should no the ins and outs of it.

Unfortunately those coaches also have no experience of progressing past the Quarters at the RWC.

Maesteg mafia the
All Blacks have only failed to reach a semi-final once 2007
Henrys results since then is 85% wins not at 2007 RWC but every where else.

emack2 wrote:Maesteg mafia the
All Blacks have only failed to reach a semi-final once 2007
Henrys results since then is 85% wins not at 2007 RWC but every where else.

Yes and i expect them to do better than that this time.

I expect them to (win it)..

But so did I last time, and the time before...

So until I see it held up at Eden Park in David Kirks spot from all those years ago, its all on paper and anything can, and with good reason, does, happen.

Thats the beauty of it all...

Agreed IF New Zealand fail to win this time.PLEASE let it be someone new ,not the usual susspects.

Don't worry Alan if we dont we'll close the borders, shut off the airwaves, shoot all the tourists, dress up 15 in French jerseys and tell them to act like losers, take some photos and hold the cup up anyway.

Then just kind of wing it from there...

It´s nice to have a strong team in the pool. Tonga will be a nice physical game first up and then the B squad will most probably be used against Canada and Japan. France is good for a hit out before the knockouts and good that is not the team we face in the knockouts other than a hypothetical final. A loss to the French wouldn´t be the end of the world but I´d prefer to see wins all the way. That Eden Park record is a nice one to have for a World Cup. It´s like an extra man.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:It´s nice to have a strong team in the pool. Tonga will be a nice physical game first up and then the B squad will most probably be used against Canada and Japan. France is good for a hit out before the knockouts and good that is not the team we face in the knockouts other than a hypothetical final. A loss to the French wouldn´t be the end of the world but I´d prefer to see wins all the way. That Eden Park record is a nice one to have for a World Cup. It´s like an extra man.

Japan are looking like tough prospects too. They won the PI Nations cup. Though the series was a close tie.

It´s good to see them pulling off such an important result and are happy for them. They are one of my favourite teams to watch at the World Cup, especially those nippy little players like Yamaha, Suzuki and Subaru (ok I can only remember the player Yamaha). But I disagree with the definition of Japan as tough prospects.

Whilst they´ll certainly be a lot more competitive than the Japan team NZ faced in 1995, I don´t think Japan will pose problems for NZ. That´s not to say the ABs will disrespect them. But NZ have a ruthless edge against second-tier teams that other top sides don´t have. I think that´s a sign of respect for every team they face and also an indication that every side seems to lift their performance against the ABs. Expect the biggest cheer of the tournament though if Japan score a try.

Did you see any of the Pacific Cup Kia?

Some very good rugby played. Saw the Samoa Japan match and both teams looked good. The minnows teams have come a long way and have a lot more structure in their games these days.

As usual they lack the physical presence and individual skill (more Japan than Samoa here) but the organisation and defensive patterns are there.

Kirwan will have something up his sleeve for NZ dont worry about that.

Should be an easy one but there will be no 100 pointers in our section.

Taylorman, in Madrid they put on as much rugby as they do lawn bowls. I really do pang for a rugby channel.

I don´t doubt Japan have improved to get a result like that but what I mean to say teams like that or the Pacific Island nations don´t trouble the ABs because the ABs do the basics better generally and stay composed with the big defences like Tonga or Samoa. That said, I agree it´s great that the so-called minnow teams are developing. Just shows you what meaningful competition can do for teams and if you look at the sevens model, more work should be done to include teams in regular and challenging matches.

I remember Marc Ellis scored 6 tries against Japan. Would love to see the odds for a player to do that again. Think they´d be very attractive as Japan have like you say a good coach in JK and a few imports to bulk up the pack.

Similar to pool D there are some big hitters, Canada and Samoa.

This could cause a few injuries to key players that may be targeted!

I hate to go against the flow here and say that this is one of the easiest groups to call, certainly qualifying-wise.
Unless Lievremont loses the last few vestiges of sanity that he has and brings back Paparumborde, Rives, Lagisquet, Blanco etc. NZ and France will ease through with minimal problems. However, I do agree that the other 3 teams will be mighty competitive in their own little competition in that group.

I can see Canada or Japan shaking France. Maybe a wake up call for them.

maestegmafia wrote:I can see Canada or Japan shaking France.

I can't. England Saxons smashed Canada in the Churchill Cup final. Japan just managed to beat Tonga.

I just can't see France beating the ABs this time out. Should be a good match, but I think the ABs are too good for them this year. I could see France coming together throughout the tournament, and becoming more of a force in the knock-outs than the pool stages. I also don't think the other teams will bother either France or the ABs, though Canada and Tonga do have big hitters. Some bruised and battered bodies will emerge from matches against them.

I do have a little quibble here, though:

kiakahaaotearoa wrote: Whilst they´ll certainly be a lot more competitive than the Japan team NZ faced in 1995, I don´t think Japan will pose problems for NZ. That´s not to say the ABs will disrespect them. But NZ have a ruthless edge against second-tier teams that other top sides don´t have. I think that´s a sign of respect for every team they face and also an indication that every side seems to lift their performance against the ABs. Expect the biggest cheer of the tournament though if Japan score a try.

I disagree that putting a boatload of points on a team is a sign of respect. After a while it becomes just points for points. To me that crosses the line to insulting and embarrassment. I don't know exactly where I would draw the line, but it is fair to say when the ABs put 140 points on Japan, that was not good. Nor, when England put 100 on Uruguay or Australia put 140 on Namibia.

doctor_grey wrote:I just can't see France beating the ABs this time out. Should be a good match, but I think the ABs are too good for them this year. I could see France coming together throughout the tournament, and becoming more of a force in the knock-outs than the pool stages. I also don't think the other teams will bother either France or the ABs, though Canada and Tonga do have big hitters. Some bruised and battered bodies will emerge from matches against them.

Definitely the biggest thing tonga and Canada have in their armoury is their big tacklers... Always great to watch...

I am not making any grand statements regarding the SH big guns until after the TRi Nations, but i agree the ABs should breeze through this group, France though could be anywhere from brilliant to atrocious...

The last time the played the ABs in NZ they won...!

maestegmafia,
I think the Canada - Tonga match will be a fun one too.

doctor_grey wrote: maestegmafia,
I think the Canada - Tonga match will be a fun one too.

sounds like a blood bath, very glad i dont qualify for either team in that fixture, even though some other welshmen do...!

Lumberjacks v. Island Warriors. Sounds like a marketing plan.

To me, this is one of the great things about the RWC. With all the excitement and attention to the big nations, these are matches which are great to watch and are worth looking forwards to. And the supporters are usually great fun, too.

doctor_grey wrote:Lumberjacks v. Island Warriors. Sounds like a marketing plan.

To me, this is one of the great things about the RWC. With all the excitement and attention to the big nations, these are matches which are great to watch and are worth looking forwards to. And the supporters are usually great fun, too.

I agree, but Canada often step it up at world cups, they can be a tough team to beat with such a strong defence. Especially after having had a few months training together, they will be much stronger than in their other tests.

Cant see past the AB's and France (in that order) to be honest.

Japan, however well they did in the Pacific Nations cup will not really trouble France or New Zealand here. They are a better side than Tonga and Canada though and should take 3rd place.

The only question mark for me in this pool is whether New Zealand will beat France to finish top or not.

The France AB game will be a good one but i feel that the AB's superior strength in depth in the reserves will prove the defining factor.
I cant see past the AB's winning the cup.

doctor_grey wrote:I just can't see France beating the ABs this time out. Should be a good match, but I think the ABs are too good for them this year. I could see France coming together throughout the tournament, and becoming more of a force in the knock-outs than the pool stages. I also don't think the other teams will bother either France or the ABs, though Canada and Tonga do have big hitters. Some bruised and battered bodies will emerge from matches against them.

I do have a little quibble here, though:

kiakahaaotearoa wrote: Whilst they´ll certainly be a lot more competitive than the Japan team NZ faced in 1995, I don´t think Japan will pose problems for NZ. That´s not to say the ABs will disrespect them. But NZ have a ruthless edge against second-tier teams that other top sides don´t have. I think that´s a sign of respect for every team they face and also an indication that every side seems to lift their performance against the ABs. Expect the biggest cheer of the tournament though if Japan score a try.

I disagree that putting a boatload of points on a team is a sign of respect. After a while it becomes just points for points. To me that crosses the line to insulting and embarrassment. I don't know exactly where I would draw the line, but it is fair to say when the ABs put 140 points on Japan, that was not good. Nor, when England put 100 on Uruguay or Australia put 140 on Namibia.

Well we agree to disagree then. If you close up shop against a team and stop yourself from scoring points against a team, then that´s a sign of disrespect. What if they score? Will they honestly think that they deserved to remember that try for the rest of their lives or will people only tell them they were given it as charity from the other team who felt sorry for them? This is rugby. It´s a physical game. You play to win. The scoreline is not what the minnow team take away from the game. They take away from it that they played a powerhouse team and it´s the little things in the game like tackling a player or selling a dummy or forcing a turnover that they take away from it.

Now I think that the minnow teams should have like a bowl and plate tournament like they have in sevens, where they get to play against more even sided teams. But if a team never gives up against a good side, I don´t think they should ever give up against a minnow side.

Yeah, we will have to agree to disagree. I guess its perspective. I don't think closing shop with a big score already in the bank against a lesser team shows any disrespect. Just the opposite. The other team is out there, fighting and playing, too. But in this case without a prayer. To me it is a sign of respect that once the scoreline is huge to simply kick for touch and play defense or just drive straight through the forwards. No need to keep feeding backs and run up the score.

As I said, I am not sure I know exactly where I draw the line. But I know it when I see it.

So the Aussies 76 - 0 win in Oz was a sign of disrespect? Or was it England sending over a weakened side? I guess they got their revenge but there have been some cricket scores against top sides playing one another. NZ played Scotland last year and they seemed to ease off not quite getting 50 points and to be honest I felt cheated. But we AB fans are a miserable greedy lot and always want to see more tries.

New Zealand will hammer France in my opinion. It's not a knock-out game so I don't think we'll see New Zealand clam up in quite the same way, and I don't think they'll suffer from the loss of composure that plagued them last time out. I think they'll target this fixture for revenge, and added to which, Lievremont is one of the worst international coaches of all time, and is already stripping the French squad of some of its most dangerous players. France will turn up ill-prepared and under cooked, whereas the All Blacks will have been able to use the Tri-Nations to get every member of their squad up to speed.

The real question for me is whether the French players can mask Lievremont's incompetence enough to overcome Tonga and Japan, both of whom have put in some spirited performances lately. Obviously France have talent in abundance and the ability to be a real contender, but players can't win games from the bench. If France can be beaten by Italy, they can be beaten by Tonga.

As I've said before, if NZ lose the pool game against France and come second in the group and all other groups go as planned then NZ's run to the final actually becomes easier.

TheGreyGhost wrote:As I've said before, if NZ lose the pool game against France and come second in the group and all other groups go as planned then NZ's run to the final actually becomes easier.

Indeed, and you'd have the pleasure of facing England in the QFs. I'm sure you'd find the time to watch that one!

Actually they can still beat France,and come second,.

Henry could arrange a victory for one of the other NZ coaches ie messrs Kirwin,Crowley or Maaka.....

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:So the Aussies 76 - 0 win in Oz was a sign of disrespect? Or was it England sending over a weakened side? I guess they got their revenge but there have been some cricket scores against top sides playing one another. NZ played Scotland last year and they seemed to ease off not quite getting 50 points and to be honest I felt cheated. But we AB fans are a miserable greedy lot and always want to see more tries.

When England were clobbered by the Aussies, they did indeed send over a weaker team and got more or less what they deserved. I don't think the ABs slowed down against Scotland, but the scoreline showed the difference between the teams very clearly. The minnow teams are doing the best they can. Maybe thats the difference.

The minnows are doing the best they can indeed. And so should the opposition playing them. Otherwise it becomes uncontested scrums, uncovering of hair in the rucks and gentle words of encouragement, touch rugby tackling and holding of hands in the lineout. You want to pit yourselves against the best but you also want to find out what the best are capable of.

Mate, I think we know what the ABs are capable of. Don't need to see them bitchslap Portugal or Georgia or Canada to know how good they are. But this is not just about the ABs. Any one of the majors need to know when to take their foot off the pedal. Certainly want to pit oneself against the best teams, but the world doesn't need to see it stuffed down their proverbial throat.

If I was a supporter or player for one of the lower sides and I thought for one second that the other side were going easy on us because we were a bit pants I'd go spare. I'd certainly find it more disrespectful than a swan-dive.

I agree Hammer...

All teams spend their every moment preparing for this tournament and the format is what it is. Unfortunately you cant collectively change mid game and 'take the foot off the pedal'- who trains for that?

These teams are whats in front of us and they know what they're up against so any taking the foot off the pedal is as far as I'm concerned an insult to the teams competing.

Often its directly because of these results that teams improve. Take Japan 1995- 145-17. No way would that be the score this year. Japan have improved leaps and bounds and their world cup involvement will have directly contributed to that.

Sorry guys. As Kia said, we will have to disagree. No worries, and I will still keep a beer for you. Maybe I will have one now........

I'm not saying to play soft. Do that is a virtual guarantee of injury. Just play conservative, keep it tight. Kick the ball back. Play defense. "tis all.

doctor grey
i dont agree with you either but for a completely different reason...
My understanding is that in the World cup ,if two teams draw,and subequently those two teams are 2nd equal in that pool, then the one that proceeds to the quarter final is the one with the best points differential...thus meaning that it is vital at all teams remain competitive,even if means trying to keep the score down when playing one of the "big" boys...
You are however right when at team like the All Blacks beats japan by 100 points ,neither team gets any thing positive out of that...

aucklandlaurie,
I hadn't heard that before, but I probably hadn't paid attention to that either. Unfortunately, that would be a reason to run it up. Don't like it, but in that context, I get your drift. I would prefer to see a different tie breaker, but if thats the rule for now, its the rule.

Thanks.

Nothing wrong with having a different opinion mate. I´ll gladly share a beer with someone who stands up for his own opinion.

The game has started already in Dunedin so let´s see if there´s a cricket score tonight. I´m just hoping the ABs get a clinical start to the season and that Slade has a good game.

Good luck to the AB's. Should be an interesting match.

Maesteg mafia .Please get your facts right,the last time France played NZ in NZ they LOST [2009].
They played an All Blacks side with many first up players missing[Ali Williams.Conrad Smith,Dan Carter,Ritchie McCaw included] the All Blacks lost by 3 points].Considered by Nz press as the weakest ABside of the decade.

The following week a stronger French side lost to an All Blacks side by two points[still a shadow AB side]
There was a trophy for the series held at the time by NZ usually holder in a drawn series keeps trophy .On this occassion France took on a points difference of one point.
A full strenghth All Black side made a point in Marseille in there best display of the year 36-3 think was the score can`t be bothered to check it.
Difference betwen two hemispheres SH haven`t played test Rugby since November and need game time to get combinations right and cover S 15 injury list.
As people correctly state it is pointless winning 3 warm up matches,and losing out in the group RWC stages.
But quite another to start a RWC and trying to still work out your best lineup.It`s a fine line between protecting players and being under cooked,
SH sides have 4 3Ns matches to get things right.
Last week a Under strength Wallaby side took Samoa lightly and were mullered.This week a strong [but not the strongest]All Black side today put 60 points past a very weakened Fiji.
There play was rusty and disjointed,combinations not there yet but something to work on.
With the number of fringe players getting games,some enhanced there chances,some stood still,one or two look likely to be discarded as not yet ready,or not up to snuff.
But better sort it now before serious work starts next week[for ABs

Laurie...
"You are however right when at team like the All Blacks beats japan by 100 points ,neither team gets any thing positive out of that..."

Do you think so? Happened in 95'. Look at Japan now- winners of a tournament with Samoa, Tonga and Fiji in it...

(Or is it just Japan that are good learners (...a bit off topic perhaps) look at 50 years earlier in '45 and look at them now... oops