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Bath RFC	InTheFastLane
Exeter Chiefs	Driver - RIP 606
Gloucester	Anonmattyt
Harlequins	Steven_Sharks
Leicester Tigers	LukeLovesLuka
London Irish	stnick88
London Wasps	Arry
Newcastle Falcons	Sgt_Pooly
Northampton Saints	Dammit_Chris
Sale Sharks	SirJohnnyEnglish
Saracens	LDCPete
Worcester Warriors	prop_lyd

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1. Sam
2. pullthestrings
3. Bathite

Right guys

The new season is almost upon us, and the predicting will start in earnest next week. In order to be open about what I am looking for when I predict, I am going to say now what I will be basing my predictions on. I think most people probably know by now as I like to think I have been fairly consistent over the three years that we have been playing the game, but just thought sticking it down in black and white means there can be no misunderstanding later down the line.

1. Home advantage - I do not give a set home advantage to all teams. It will be weighted as to me some grounds are tougher to go to than others in real life and that will be reflected. What I will also take into account is relative home and away records of teams in this game and I will base how much advantage a team will get on those factors.

2. Momentum - For me momentum in a long season can be important, so I will be looking at recent form for each team (their previous 5 games) to see if one team has any more momentum than the other. A team with more momentum will have a slight advantage for me. (All teams will start the season with zero momentum as I am not taking pre season games into account)

3. Real life form - I will be using real life form of the players. Big names do not impress me if they are playing rubbish in real life. I will go for a slightly lesser player in great form over the marginally better one in gash form.

4. Tactics - The tactics deployed must be suited to the players you have on show and the playing conditions. It is no good playing as an example James Downey/Jon Clarke as your midfield and having tactics that say 'we are going to play an open expansive game with our centres throwing the ball around and using their pace on the outside to get beyond the defensive line'. I will mark down if your tatics clearly cannot be executed by your players. I will also mark down heavily, if your 'tactics' are solely telling how great your players are and how poor the oppositions players are. By all means highlight a specific weak area for your opponent and how you will attack that weakness, but I will be the judge of how good/bad I think a player is.

5. Balance - I will mark heavily in favour of balanced teams, so as an example if you have backs that are pacy and going to play a running game, but they also have good kicking games so could go to plan B if plan A isn't working then I will give massive credit for that. If your team is one dimensional then I will always have them below a team that can switch styles. If you have certain areas where you have a small potential lack of balance then if you cover that well with your tactics I will not mark you down for it.

6. Pack vs. Backs - You all know by now that I am a firm believer that the pack decides who wins and the backs by how much. I will always place slightly more emphasis on the fat boys than the girls and my predicitons will be weighted that way.


To pick up on a comment from Mat when watching the 2007 World Cup Final earlier, games at the very top level are often decided by very small margins, with the bounce of rugby ball one way or another the difference between winning and losing. This bounce is often random due to the shape and I am toying with the idea of adding a small random factor to my predictions. How it would work would be that as an example if I had a game scored at 25 -22 having considered everything, I would then roll a dice to give a randomly generated number from 1 to 6. Once I had the number I would toss a coin to decide which team gets that number of points. So the dice says 4 and the coin says tails, the away team get 4 points to win the game 25-26, or the dice says 6 and the coin says heads, then the home team get 6 points to win 31-22. I know that there will be arguments from some that this is unfair, but so is the bounce of a rugby ball sometimes, so it is something that I am mulling over.

What I think I might do is, predict this weekends friendlies and then use the random factor and see how it effects the results.


Anyway, essay over, that's me for predictions this season.

Predictions open

*Will be left open through Sunday to give everyone a chance to predict and give a fair view on where each team stands right now
*Matt, I assume you meant Dave Lewis at scrumhalf as you have no Ellis in your squad??!!

Home advantage will play a factor for me, but I will spread it evenly for each team otherwise I see it as a bit unfair.

Momentum and real life form will play a big factor for me like Pete says.

Tactics and balance also.

I don't necessarily see it as clearly as pack wins a game and backs decide the margin, as in the summer months I think the backs have as much say in the result as forwards do. In the winter it will be more pack dominated and that will be a bigger factor.

i have a mental block with lewis and always list him as ellis?????????

Tactics will be quite important for me. If a side really comes up with a good set of tactics and has the players to pull them off I will be putting extra emphasis on it.

As an example can already see Driver has a fantastic spoiling side and if his tactics are written well to suit that can see him having great success in my predictions

Pete

What I might consider doing about the random factor of games is look at the players involved.

EG. If my side has Brits, Cooper, Heymans and Roko in it then they could get me 7 points from nowhere but could also lose me seven points from nowhere. I would do a similar system to Pete's for this game.

Whereas if to other teams put out steady sides which are unlikely to create magic or give away 7 points I wouldn't add a random factor.

So it would depend on what sort of side and tactics the side played as to the random factor and whether it was used

hopefully that made sense

Yeah, I understand what your saying Steve. Will have a little think over the week as to the best way of doing. I think as long as I am consistent with what I do then it shouldn't be a drama for people. What it might mean is that there are some bigger margins in the scores in my predictions, which I don't think is a bad thing as most games aren't as close as 2-5 points like they are in this game.

Steve, out of interest where did you see the 1 point advantage for Irish in my game this week. I knew it would be a close one looking at the teams so just seeing where I might be able to tweak to gain an advantage for next week?

Interesting theory Pete....

Real life form - funny one this one. I watch players get picked up for "poor form" and I assume marked down which is fair I suppose. Thing that gets me though is when say Chris might get marked down for Giteau and the opposition get marked up for having a prem standard FH in good form.

A slightly off form Giteau for me is still a very good player and would shine in the AP. That's why top class players hold a bit of weight for me, I find it hard to knock a world class player for having a few bad games at Int level them mark a team up for playing league standard.

Home form - another funny one. Teams won/lost games last season because of how intimidating their stadium is. I won't put anything on this as I think it gives certain teams an advantage which they don't deserve. Home advantage is a biggy imo but Leicester/Saints etc don't get any more of an advantage than say Sale/Irish when I predo.

Little point on the random thing. Do you not think 8/10 times the little things in rugby tend to go to the home side? Not many teams get that little bit of luck when away from home.

For me mercurial type players tend to perform much better at home than away. A lot to do with atmosphere and more time on the ball maybe?!?!

To pick up on Cooper Steve, I'd always give you a bit of extra kudos for Cooper at home on a good pitch but not so much away.

Guys will be laying down the firm rules with preados on Monday so we are all up to speed on when we need teams and tactics in for swell as predictions along with how much detail

I love that word Pooly - mercurial, basically used to describe anyone with a bit of flair who messes up as often as they produce a bit of magic.

I always thought they should be called inconsistent! lol

I prefer flawed genius lol

Mercurial usually implies lazy le tissier, Spencer, Cooper, caucau, nalaga, lamb, berbatov
Etc etc.

Lamb is certainly not mercurial.

Right

Anybody who can find me evidence of Cooper making more mistakes (intercepted passes that lead to tries, what he did v NZ in his own goal lines etc) then he did score assists or tries last season than they can have him for free.

Cooper is not as likely to make a mistake which costs points than he is to create or score a try. This years S15 showed that.

Just watching the South Africa vs New Zealand game from last week with in a minute SBW blows a promising attack by throwing a stupid pass straight into Jaque Fourie's hands.

3 minutes in and Dagg throws a silly pass which would normally be punished - Boys still dynamite with ball in hand!

What's rattled you! Lol

Fourie saves a certain try after 5 minutes of play timing an interception covering back - such a clever play Fourie.

Bob Skinsted directly says Jaque Fourie is the best rugby player in the world.

I remember about a year ago a number of people on here bigging up SBW and saying that he would take Nonu's shirt for the WC.

I recall saying he throws too many offloads and his biggest strength was also his biggest weakness. I also recall saying it would be Nonu/Smith in the Ab's midfield for the World Cup barring injury.

I love being right!

Guttered if Henry picks SBW over Nonu lol , Wouldn't be surprised for Henry to go Nonu - SBW in the groups for a game to see if it clicks this time round. He gets caught out in defense a lot as well!

Heinrich Brussow is the second best openside in the world! Wins a load turnovers with out cheating like Mr. Richie McCaw

I think people just want to see him play there pete as he is more exciting to watch.

i hoped he would have nonu's position just because i enjoy watching him play

Think Nicks hit the nail on the head. SBW and Maps would be some Baa-Baas combo!

25 minutes in Habana cuts back in and completly ignores men over... Would appear Habs is having a poor season Matt?

I guess I just don't see him as more exciting to watch. I see him as incredibly frustrating to watch, as he really should have learnt by now that there are times to just hold on to the ball.

Driver did you finish the game? Habana has a stormer. Fourie is quite comfortably best 13 in world rugby for me

Mujati has directly accused Steven Skyes and Heinke Van der Merwe of racisim on his twitter in game last night. Could have some implications for Leinster if anything comes from it

anonmattyt wrote:Driver did you finish the game? Habana has a stormer. Fourie is quite comfortably best 13 in world rugby for me

I think Conrad Smith may have a bit of an argument over that accolade Mat. Both top class and streets ahead of any other 13's right now, including BOD.

LDCPete wrote:

anonmattyt wrote:Driver did you finish the game? Habana has a stormer. Fourie is quite comfortably best 13 in world rugby for me

V
I think Conrad Smith may have a bit of an argument over that accolade Mat. Both top class and streets ahead of any other 13's right now, including BOD.

Smith is a great player but for me is a bit off Fourie. I would have Fourie out on his own smith in second place and all the other 13s quite a way behind smith

What has digby done to his hair!!

Anyone heard anything definitive on his future?

Aus by 5 points today! Mammoth clash today!

I heard he won't decide after teh World Cup but the Reds have released players to free up cash to match the offer he has from Japan.

I think he will still be a Red next season.

Ben Alexander has been on fire this 3N!

Bit wierd to see Cooper kicking over Beale.......

I suspect as much Pete. I dont see the reds will have to match his contract. The benefits of playing for the reds and for his country shouldn't require a huge wage.

That flick from Quade was sensational, after Carter missed the tackle and had a kick charged down.

3 errors from super Dan so far

Greasy conditions makes for exciting games

Brillaint from Mils and Weepu

If AAc has not scored that he needs shooting

This games gone off like a firework! Australia on fire early doors. No try for me though

McCaw should be cited for that punch on Cooper but he won't. Great vision by Genia seeing two slow front rows and hitting the gap!

Thomson having a mare getting bullied

Who was it who Samo just stepped?? Carter or McCaw?

Unbelieveable defence from Faainga and phenominal kick from Cooper. This is the best I've seen Oz play

Faingaa offers nowt in attack but what a defender

anonmattyt wrote:Faingaa offers nowt in attack but what a defender

cowpat! He's just played in the best attacking club side in the world S15 winning team must do something right!

He is functional in attack. Plays in a super star backline. He is the glue and gives balance. Not knocking him. Every team needs a worker

http://www.skysports.com/story/0,,12573_7126898,00.html

Sale predicted for 7th!! I'd be delighted with that

Vickerman hitting those rucks!

Brutal game. This is epic

anonmattyt wrote:He is functional in attack. Plays in a super star backline. He is the glue and gives balance. Not knocking him. Every team needs a worker

So he offers something in the term he pulls defenders in and runs hard lines lol

Radike playing himself into the World Cup!!!!!!

AB's look so ordinary its unreal.

Stunning.

He is not picked for what he offers in attack. If you asked people is faingaa better in attack than defence most people would say no. He is pretty average ball in hand but sensational defensively. Have you seen deans has fast tracked Horne to the bench for this game.


Thomson bullied again. Can't miss tackles like that