Springbok selections (part 1) - Holding on too long?

In relationships we often find ourselves in a situation where we are hanging on to something we know has been over for a quite some time.

Many people are afraid to be alone and will there for remain in these relationships clinging on to that last bit of hope, that things might still work out.

In most of these cases it is due to the fact that we fear the unknown. Not being sure whether moving on is the correct decision and whether we will find what we are looking for, finding safety and comfort in what we know and settling for second best.

You may be wondering whether I am starting a relationship advice column, but no this is directly related to the situation in South African rugby.

Although there are many reasons for their poor performance over recent years, one of the main factors could be just that, hanging on for dear life due to the fear of the unknown.

Pieter de Villiers and his coaching staff have had an unwavering belief in the Springboks that won the previous world cup. At the time, the first thing many of us did was work out who would still be young enough to make the squad four years later.

The list was long, as most of them were still in their early twenties.

This was the team that did duty in the world cup final in 2007.

15 Percy Montgomery (93)
14 JP Pietersen (14)
13 Jaque Fourie (36)
12 Francois Steyn (15)
11 Bryan Habana (34)
10 Butch James (25)
9 Fourie du Preez (37)
8 Danie Rossouw (30)
7 Juan Smith (40)
6 Schalk Burger (37)
5 Victor Matfield (66)
4 Bakkies Botha (43)
3 CJ van der Linde (46)
2 John Smit (73) (C)
1 Os du Randt (79)

16 Bismarck du Plessis (8)
17 Jannie du Plessis (4)
18 Johann Muller (21)
19 Wikus van Heerden (13)
20 Ruan Pienaar (18)
21 André Pretorius (30)
22 Wynand Olivier (20)

These were the guys that have served South Africa well over the world cup,and in fact apart from Percy Montgomery, Os du Randt and Wikus van Heerden, the rest of that match day 22 still would be young enough to make most international squads.

There were a number of players who would be border line in age come RWC 2011.

So let’s have a look at who those players were.

Butch James age 32 years, 8 months.
In his absence after moving to Bath following the RWC in 2007, South Africa desperately needed a new 10, Andre Pretorius with an injury riddled career was for obvious reasons not going to be that man. During the 2009 Super XIV season Morne Steyn staked a claim when the Bulls once again won the trophy and the mercurial boot of Morne Steyn was the saviour for South Africa in a three test series against the British and Irish Lions, he then went on to break a number of records for the Springboks in the Tri Nations of 2009. An injury to Fourie du Preez has coincided with a slump of form and confidence not only at the Springboks, but also at the very successful Bulls franchise. Roll on 2010, and a young Patrick Lambie was making noises in the Currie cup and due to an inspiring individual performance during the final, staked his claim.

So the potential replacements for Butch James has been noticed, a slightly off form and low of confidence Morne Steyn, and a young exciting short on experience playmaker in Patrick Lambie.

It is unclear to me why Pieter de Villiers has decided to bring back Butch James who has for the past 3 seasons plied his trade in the Northern Hemisphere, when Morne Steyn and Patrick Lambie have shown their willingness to perform.

Danie Russouw age 33 years and 3 months.
Danie Rossouw in my opinion has been the work horse of South African and Bulls rugby for many years, unlucky to have been playing in the same era as the duo of Botha and Matfield. Not only a good lineout option, but also a very physical specimen of pure brutal ball carrying ability.

With South Africa having such a depth of loose forwards, one might think it is hardly necessary for Danie Rossouw to still be part of the Springbok squad. Even though he has lost a lot of pace, and should no longer be considered as a loose forward because the pace of the modern game, I believe he is a must for the RWC, but as part of the tight five. With the untimely injury to Andries Bekker, there is really no other world class back up for Bakkies Botha and Victor Matfield.

Victor Matfield age 34 years and 3 months and Bakkies Botha age 32
With Bakkies Botha as partner, Victor Matfield have rewritten the record books on so many fronts, it would take a dedicated article just to name them. The quintessential locking pair, World Cup winners, Super Rugby winners, Currie Cup winners, in fact I wonder whether there is anything these two have not achieved. Are they still as dominant as in the period 2007-2009, no, but they are still a better locking pair than most. Andries Bekker to me has been the in form and dynamic lock we would want at this rugby world cup, but unfortunately he won’t be there. Currently in SA, I don’t believe there are any better locks that would make a bigger impact on the field as these two.

John Smit age 33 years and 4 months.
Although never having won the super Rugby trophy, John Smit has been an exemplary leader and ambassador for South African rugby since his debut in 2003. It was his leadership that proved vital against the Tongans and Fiji during the last world cup that ensured calm and collective heads to prevail.

Since the world cup, John Smit has moved to France for a short stint, but was recalled by Pieter de Villiers to continue his leadership role for the Springboks and the goal at that time was to win the British and Irish Lions series. South Africa are blessed with much depth in the hooker department. Players such as Bismarck du Plessis, Chilliboy Ralapele, Adriaan Strauss, Gary Botha have all put their hands up to wear the Green and Gold. Bismarck du Plessis seems to be the front runner for some time with Chilliboy next in line. The biggest question regarding John Smit is whether he is still the number one hooker in South Africa. When you go to the basics, lineouts, scrums, leadership, yes most definitely. On defence and carrying ball, he is unfortunately no longer the best, he has lost pace, and the physicality and mobility of Bismarck du Plessis is often touted as being more important. But then again Bismarck often has discipline issues on the field, and is not the most accurate at line outs. One thing is for sure, John Smit is not an international quality prop, and perhaps that is the reason why many feel his time has come to retire with dignity.

So all in all, there are 5 players that can be questioned on whether they are perhaps past their sell by date.

After reflection it is clear to me that we cannot go into this world cup without Danie Rossouw, Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha.

The debate should be fixed around Butch James and John Smit.

Do you want experience, someone who has done it before, great leadership, but all of this comes with a loss of speed and effectiveness.

Or

Are you prepared to go gung ho, with players such as Morne Steyn with an accurate boot and in my opinion reliant on Fourie du Preez, or Patrick Lambie who could be seen as a little maverick, and inexperienced, but yet an exciting playmaker, and do you go for Bismarck who may cost you some penalties, but brings physicality and mobility?

I am sure, if picked in their specialist positions none of these players will let you down, but it is often not the players making the squad that is questioned, but rather those that didn’t and whether we can afford not to have them there.

I think in sport you can play to win, or you can play to win by trying not to lose, or you can play knowing you will lose, but attempting to minimize the slaughter.

If the Boks select butch and John, its possible they are more in the second category than the first. Bismark starting would move you forward as his purpose isn't damage control, but attack and general destruction. He comes with a potential cost, but nothing is a sure bet and his upside is that the general threat of the team is increased. You are also not short of leadership and experience, even without Smit.

Lambie is probably a larger risk, but one inexperienced guy surrounded by fdp, jdv, fourie, and with Morne on the bench if it all goes pear shaped doesn't have car crash written all over it. If Frans Steyn is picked, he could even do the kicking couldn't he which would lessen the load. That said, playing to win by not losing is probably quite acceptable in a world cup. Tomorrow is only important if you are still going and it sounds like flare hasn't previously been the winning formula for this trophy.

Morning Biltong, how are you? Tough Saturday, hey but onwards to the next game.

I think Butch James offers good degree of defence in the no 10 channel. SO I can see the call there.

John Smit, unfortunately much as I admire the bloke, as a player and a person, I too feel maybe now is the time for him to step down. Certainly stay with the squad though, even if not as a player, if that is possible.

Russouw, Victor and Botha, can't imagine a boks side without them.

The Boks must look at Brits, to ignore him just because he's playing for Saracens, is short sighted!

His ball carrying alone should get him selected!

Well, this RWC will be the passing of the proverbial torch for SA Rugby, probably more so than any other nation. I like the idea of keeping proven winners and, equally important, proven leaders in the RWC squad. But the tipping point is when the winners/leaders get to the place where their intangibles are outweighed by lesser quality play. To be successful, teams do need leaders, not just the best collection of players. But, to be fair, I am a big leadership guy.

So here goes: At out half, I would bring Lambie and James, giving the nod to James at the outset. But I think Lambie will see significant match time. Probably a start against Namibia, and possibly against Fiji or Samoa. This is where PDV will have his headache. Whom to start in the knock-out stages will probably be based upon Pool performance. I am not a big Steyn supporter.

John Smit is an even tougher call. He has been not just a very good player, but a great leader and captain for a long time. Dealing with an aging captain has got to one of the hardest decisions for a coach. But I feel the right thing to do would be the same as at out half, start Smit in the big Pool matches, but give du Plessis and the third choice Hooker significant match time. du Plessis to start Namibia, and probably Fiji and Samoa. Then make the tough decision. But if Smit's form is reasonable, then I would think he will continue to start and be captain.

At lock, the decision is still easy. Matfield & Botha are iconic, and are still the best lock combo in the world. Again, they also provide the tough leadership which teams need. Losing Bekker is a real blow, but, as you said, there is still Danie Rossouw, who will be fine when on the pitch.

All those players are probably gone from the Boks squad after the RWC, so this is a bit of a swan song. Rugby will be a poorer place with these guys not on the International scene.

bokkie
Brad thorn makes your guys look like spring chickens....

aucklandlaurie

I don't necessarily think age is the issue.... if a player like Thorn has the drive, fitness & desire to play at the top and there is no better player other than him... there is no reason why he should not play.

Thorn may have gone to RWC's before but I don't think he was a Starter for any of the big matches, so in essence he's starting in his first real RWC which is also at home... thats a big incentive for any player.

Matfield, Smit, Habana, James have all been there, played in multiple world cups some but showhow have lost their way as they have aged.

Habana for instance has been finished for 2 years affectively.... yet he's only 28 now. Once a wing whose game is primarily based on pace loses it then its over. Look at his stats if you want.....

Pre RWC07 - 30 tries in 35 Matches.
Post RWC07 - 8 tries in 34 Matches.

In the last 2 years he has scored 2 tries only (12 matches).... both against Italy.