Final preview: Andy v. Novak, the two unconvincing finalists

Neither player has looked particularly impressive, in fact I can't remember a recent tournament where two guys have played so under their form and yet managed to get to the finals. Could this scratchy play that we have seen in this tournament continue or are we set to have a great match like we had in Rome? Novak has certainly looked ripe for the picking in the last couple of matches and somehow monfils and berdy both let him off the hook, shame about berdy hurting himself before the open I just hope it isn't serious.

What will be the keys to victory? Does anybody want to make any predictions? I think it will be a tough match, I would favor Novak but he hasn't been playing well at the start of matches. Still I think he can return Andy's serve well, and that Andy has too many mental ups and downs in big matches. Novak I think will win in a tight one. In terms of the keys to victory, I think there are two major keys. First, when the two best returners and second serve returners on tour play it is crucial that whoever wins hits a high percentage of first serves. The player that has more trouble producing consistent high quality 1st serves will struggle in the match. Secondly, how well will Andy's forehand hold up in the big cross court exchanges with NOvak's forehand? If murray can hold his own in that department and serve at a high percentage of 1st serves he can win.

Djokovic looks a bit jaded in this tournament, it takes him awhile to get into his matches. He has to be feeling the pressure match after match, tournament after tournament with the expectations. But, i think playing Andy in another final maybe will cause him to focus. I look for Novak to win in a sloppy but tight match with a lot of breaks of serve.

Well I wouldn't expect you to favour Andy being a Novak fan but you predicted Fish to beat him and that didn't happen so who knows.

Andy should have beaten Novak the last time they met, coming within two points of victory but that didn't happen.

So who knows maybe this time?

Maybe Nole will go easy in this match and not exert himself with the GS at NY not far away. We will only know for sure after the first 4 or 5 games.

I'm going to go for Andy to win in a scrappy match. I'm breaking my own prediction rule with this and basing my judgement on statistics rather than form. I just find it too hard to believe that a player can enter six ATP 1000 events, and win them all to reach a record of 31-0 at that level. Surely a slip-up has to come eventually?! But I would be really pleased if Novak can do it, it's a record that will stand for a long time!

Sportslover, I don't have anything against Andy, but I just haven't been impressed with his progression as of late. After Queens and the early rounds in wimbeldon I thought that maybe he was getting better and his performance even in getting to this final has not be inspiring to say the least. Oddly, he hasn't dropped a set so that bodes well for him.

HM Murdoch, certainly am very surprised as well at Novak's record in the masters. If he does manage to win 6 masters in row that will certainly be a record that will be very very difficult to break.

So which two would have made for convincing finalists?

48 players. Two finalists. One who hasn't lost a set in the tournament. The other who has only lost one game this year. Yes maybe they haven't looked wonderful but given the conditions but they have won their way through to the final which the other 46 haven't. So credit where credit is due. On current form would expect Novak to win but hope that Andy can give him a good game.

Calder, both guys have looked off form but have somehow toughed out the win. I don't think either one of them would say that they are playing at or near their best. Djokovic in the first set against Monfils could hit a routine forehand, and today murray gets broken three times in the second set by a Mardy fish who clearly was not at his best. In short, neither of these finalists has looked particular insipiring in the last few matches despite the fact that they have been able to win.

Nore Staat in regards to your question I think Berdych the way he played this week would have been more convincing. He played very strong from start to finish this tournament, except that he had the misfortune of injuring himself late in the 1st set against Djokovic. Before he was hurt he had Novak on the ropes. Novak looked almost like he was ready to lose in last couple of matches subconsciously but neither monfils or berdy were able to pull the trigger.

I think, as you say, that Berdych would have won that but for the injury.

His performance over Federer is the stand-out one of the week.

Absolutely and he was hitting the ball quite well against Novak early up a break. He then called for the trainer and didn't win any more games and promptly retired at the end of the first set. Who knows though, if both Murray and Novak bring their A game and we have a replay of Rome then maybe people will forget some of the substandard play that happened in the earlier rounds.

The last final @ Cincy in 2008, which these two played, went to the wire with two TB sets. Both will get a break before USO, so there is no advantage in losing the match tomorrow for either one.

I hope you are right laverfan, I think we will have a good final as well. The way I see it is that if Andy brings his A game and Novak brings his B game Andy wins. If Novak brings his A game and Andy brings his A game I think Novak wins. But mentally, Novak has looked a bit worn down from playing every sunday. If Berdych wasn't unlucky and Monfils well wasn't Monfils and didn't self destruct, Novak has been ripe the last couple of matches for defeat. If Novak of the wimbeldon final or of the earlier in the season shows up I don't think Murray can beat him, even if he plays great I think he loses a tight one like Rome. But I haven't seen that Novak in this tournament yet, and frankly not in Canada either. So far this tournament both guys have been bringing their B game, if both bring their B game Novak will win as well.

socal. When people talk about sport you often hear the saying 'you have got to be able to win ugly' and that's what Novak and Andy have been doing in this tournament. I think a couple of things are contributing to this. First the conditions which we are told are really hot and humid. Secondly the top guys have had a bit of time off tournament tennis since Wimbledon and are now trying to build up to peaking again at the U.S Open so their game is not 100% yet. Whereas some of the other players like Fish are more match hardened as they have been playing some lesser events during this period.

Calder, I don't dispute your points, but this hasn't been either players best finals run by any stretch of the imagination. Murray strikes me as a player that does like to play ugly and win a little ugly, he has a lot of ups and downs in his matches recently. It is often like he is schizophrenic even within a set, he goes out one game plays brilliantly and gets up a break, then loses more meekly the next game, and then plays brilliantly again a game or two later. It is really odd, and a disturbing type of play for a top player.

socal1976 wrote:He played very strong from start to finish this tournament, except that he had the misfortune of injuring himself late in the 1st set against Djokovic. Before he was hurt he had Novak on the ropes. Novak looked almost like he was ready to lose in last couple of matches subconsciously but neither monfils or berdy were able to pull the trigger.

He was carrying a right shoulder injury in his quarter final match, versus Federer. Not surprised he couldn't continue vs Djokovich.

Socal. Agree with your summing up of Murray's game. That's why I now question whether he can win a GS (although I really want him to). You can't really afford to have these types of dips when you are playing the really top guys in the game (Djokovic, Nadal, Federer) and hope to win.

Also agree with your A Game/B game thoughts for the final today.

If murray tries to play defensive he'll lose. The dude has to move Novak left and right and play dropshots if he's going to win, cause his serve aint good enough like Berdych was for a while..

Remember everyone how close Murray came last time they played.

Sometimes Murray does (pleasantly) surprise us. Indeed his getting to the final after his early exit in Montreal represents quite a comeback.

Let's hope he can improve his first serve %. Poor vs Fish in that respect. He was lucky Fish also had a bad day with his serving.

I should be delighted that Murray is winning, but Djokovic has struggled badly in this match. Just a poor set. Total winners in the first set by both men is 11 and UE's by both is 27.

Why does Nole always have to call MTOs? How many matches will this guy play and have the trainer on?

... and the trainer came out. Djokovic may just capitulate to get some rest and prevent any further serious injury and compromise chances @ USO.

All I can say is that this tennis match is stinking the place out. Murray doesn't even need to up his effort. I am just shocked that this quality if tennis can win a 1000 event.

Murray's won, he's got a double break in the second set now. What's happened to Djoko though? He's playing woefully.

Nole retires.

Nothings happened, just mentality worn out lucius... if he had a full days rest instead of playing EVERY day the last 3 matches, he would have tried more.

Bogbrush, who the hell are you to sit there from behind your computer and diagnose someone. 60 matches into a season it was clear to anyone with half a brain, I guess that is why you failed to see it that Djokovic had a dead shoulder. He complained about against monfils and berdych and has been stretching that shoulder out after every couple of serves in the last couple of matches. He could barely break 105 miles an hour on his first serve. I am happy he got off the court and didn't aggravate anything prior to the open, I wish he would have withdrew after the first set.

Quitter. Always has been.

How many matches have Federer or Nadal quit from?

I'm just peeved because I had money on Murray to win the match!

ryan86 wrote:I'm just peeved because I had money on Murray to win the match!

You'll still get paid as Murray did win.

It had to happen I'm afraid which is a shame however but kudos to Andy for winning the first set.

Maybe a lesser player wouldn't and who knows Novak could have taken it and also the second.

However how will this will affect his USO chances?

Well this tournament has been a downer.. pretty obvious the guy who won will be irrelevant in the big one, the USO at the Big Apple. Take a rest Nole you clearly weren't up for it today

CaledonianCraig wrote:

ryan86 wrote:I'm just peeved because I had money on Murray to win the match!

You'll still get paid as Murray did win.

Match Betting Including In-Play
In the event of a match starting but not being completed then all bets will be void unless after the start of the match a player is disqualified in which case the player/team progressing to the next round or being awarded the victory will be deemed the winner for settlement purposes.

If only Djokovic had karate-kicked a ballboy in frustration.

bogbrush wrote:Quitter. Always has been.

How many matches have Federer or Nadal quit from?

This is type of person you are, it is obvious the guy is suffering a shoulder injury he has one withdrawal in what nearly 18 months and you can't wait to question his heart. Whatever it makes no difference, if he wins you would criticize if he lost 6-0 with a bum shoulder you would criticize him, no matter what the guy does you always look for away to knock him, which is fine that is just your way.

An underwhelming end to an underwhelming tournament. Well done to Murray for being about the only player to improve as the tournament went on. Djokovic - if he is feeling pain, then there is no point at all in forcing it. He has the 'ATP 1000s in one season' record and it is more important to feel good for USO than to win a 6th ATP.
The worrying thing is that I don't think anyone looks in great form for the US Open and it could end up being pretty drab.
What a downer!

bogbrush wrote:How many matches have Federer or Nadal quit from?

Federer = 0. Nadal = 7.

I for one have no problem with Djokovic quitting the match. If it means he is healthy and fit for the US Open I am sure tennis fans would much rather see him play at the US Open.

I just hope it is nothing too serious.

legendkillar wrote:I for one have no problem with Djokovic quitting the match. If it means he is healthy and fit for the US Open I am sure tennis fans would much rather see him play at the US Open.

I just hope it is nothing too serious.

Don't worry, it isn't.

I'll show my @r$e in Tescos front window if he can't show at the USO.

Berdych is also suffering from the same sore shoulder as Djokovic. Nadal did not play Paris due to a sore shoulder after his USO win last year, IIRC.

Tenez would have a field day with the 'physicality' aspects.

Well done Andy, on a MS 1000 title.

Yes, lost in all this negativity by "Mr. Rain on your parade", congratulations to Andy. This is why I keep pointing to the strength of this era. I know that the last two tourneys have been poor. But Murray is easily the best player never to win a slam at least for as far as I can remember. He didn't even play well and won this tournament, he played the least poorly of all the top men, that in itself is actually more of an accomplishment than people know.

laverfan, what are the retiring stats for Andy and Djoko?

laverfan wrote:Berdych is also suffering from the same sore shoulder as Djokovic. Nadal did not play Paris due to a sore shoulder after his USO win last year, IIRC.

What is funny about BB is that last night Berdych had the same injury and withdrew against Djokovic. In that thread he commended Berdych for being the "standout performer of the tournament". He made not the slightest of allusions to how Berdych disrespected his opponent and the fans, in fact he stated that Djokovic basically got lucky. (which i do agree with because Novak hasn't looked right in the last couple of matches)

Today Djokovic fights longer than berdych does, is in obvious pain a week before the open and is fighting it as best he can. Then he decides to withdraw. Now all of sudden Djokovic is disrespecting murray and is a quitter. FOR THE EXACT SAME BEHAVIOR AS BERDYCH, THIS IS WHAT IS CALLED A DOUBLE STANDARD. It is just so amusing to me how you expose your own hypocisy in each and every post. Novak gets lucky and berdych was the "standout" of the tournament for the exact same behavior that made Novak a quitter and disrespectful to Andy. They both even suffered the same exact injury!

socal Andy understood Djokovic's injury and can accept Novak's actions - a shame some tennis fans can't follow Andy's lead.

Shame that Djokovic had to retire. Think he was obviously injured, Would have preferred him to be fit. Don't think that Murray has been given enough credit for the way he has steered his way through this tournament though. He has not played his best tennis but in each game he has done what has been required to win in 2 sets. He also had around a 50% break rate on his opponents serves. I see in an earlier post Legendkiller quoting a joint 27 Ue's in the first set. You fail to mention that 20 of these were from Novak.
Therefore apart from the second set against Fish yesterday when he lost his serve 3 times after breaking I think most things have been positive for him this week.

Not saying that he will win USO though. Totally different tournament where Djokovic if fit, Nadal and Federer will be fully tuned up and motivated. Still think Murray has some mental issues to address.

His first serve was down at 90-105 mph alot of the time. Real Novak will be back at USO!!! (hopefully .)

socal

Chill out - toilet man is a windup merchant and did the same with the Nadal fans on the old 606.

After all remember his beloved "Emperor Roger" is now on the wane so it must be even more difficult for him now.

Pretty much spot on Calder.

However, the door is ajar for the US Open. The big four go into the final slam of the season in far from ideal shape.

Novak Djokovic has an injury concern and will be hoping to be far more refreshed come the start of the US Open. The form man of the season but this match today may just dent his confidence.

Rafael Nadal has a lot of work to do. Not sure what the problem is but seems mental more than anything and has had a far from ideal build-up for Flushing Meadows in fact probably one of his worst build-ups on the hard courts plus has blistered hands which can't be ideal.

Roger Federer much like Nadal has been in poor form recently losing against players he'd expect to beat comfortably before reaching the business ends of tournaments. Yes I know he always ups his game for slams but he needs to up it so much more than he has in the past as his level has dipped so much.

Andy Murray had a very disappointing start to the hard court season in North America saw him lose in straight sets in Montreal. However, he gradually improved throughout the Cincinnati Masters without playing at his best to win and so unlike Federer and Nadal his confidence will be on a higher plain.

I cannot recall ANY such instances in Andy Murray's career when the leading contenders have looked so fragile but as we know sometimes Andy can beat himself. Time will tell.

Uncalled for sportslover, I call just call it as it is.

I left Berdbrain out of it because actually who cares whether Berdy quits or not, he's not at the top of the game. In any case I don't recall him having a great history of bailing out but I do know Nole does, although as socal says he was on a teriffic run of 16 months without a quit. Pity to see the great streak broken.

bogbrush wrote:Uncalled for sportslover, I call just call it as it is.

I left Berdbrain out of it because actually who cares whether Berdy quits or not, he's not at the top of the game. In any case I don't recall him having a great history of bailing out but I do know Nole does, although as socal says he was on a teriffic run of 16 months without a quit. Pity to see the great streak broken.

The old Weak Era streak is at fault here

weak era of injuries,

Maybe having two Masters 1000 events back to back with a one week break before USO is not such a good idea. Players will all want to be fit for USO so will take no chances if they feel they could further agravate an injury. Can't blame them for that.

sportslover wrote:socal

Chill out - toilet man is a windup merchant and did the same with the Nadal fans on the old 606.

After all remember his beloved "Emperor Roger" is now on the wane so it must be even more difficult for him now.

I know, it is funny to me how he mentions nothing about how the same exact thing happened to Djokovic in the match before. When Berdych withdrew he didn't accuse him of being a quitter and went out an claimed that Djokovic got lucky. He is a wum, but I just wish he was at least a creative one.