The Jerzy Andy preview

My views on this final is Murray is a 60/40 favorite to move through. However I would not be surprised if Janowicz too this match. The fact is that he is hitting his serve so well and with the added help of the grass courts to his serve and flat shots he can trouble anyone on this surface. He has also answered the question that he can move very effectively on this surface for a big man. I actually believe that this will be a difficult matchup now and into the future for Murray. Andy can give away breaks when he is not feeling right on his serve, if he does that against Janowicz as good as Murray's returning is, you have to think JJ favored for a set. Everytime Andy gets loose on his serve or forehand for a game it could end up costing him the set. So this will be tight wire act for both players the whole match. Jerzy is an inconsistent returner but he has one advantage over other big guys who usually can't return well. He attacks on the return and can get a hold of string of returns that end the point right there. Murray is known for serving up that attackable second serve quite a bit to Janowicz.

Now with all this being said, the combination of Murray's talent and experience should lead him to a victory. Andy has to not get passive on his second serve. It is better for Andy to make a double here and there but to not serve up meatball seconds as JJ likes to go for broke on those returns. Also Andy has to use the short angled forehand to pull JJ wide and the CC backhand to get Jerzy wide. If he can routinely get him pulled wide he will win the match easily.

But if I was a Murray fan I would be worried about this match. I feel like it is a very close affair. JJ has grown from the start of this tournament and now all of sudden Murray looks a bit shaky. If you have problems with fiasco's serve on the grass you will certainly have them with JJ, so a bad serving performance on your part will put you out.

Murray didn't have a bad serving performance as the 1st serve stats show

He had a bad returning match - but even then harvested quite a few break points

I'm not worried - I think he knows about JJ and, similar to the US Raonic match, will want revenge

Also, don't forget that JJ with every round is entering territory never entered before

banbrotam wrote:Murray didn't have a bad serving performance as the 1st serve stats show

He had a bad returning match - but even then harvested quite a few break points

I'm not worried - I think he knows about JJ and, similar to the US Raonic match, will want revenge

Also, don't forget that JJ with every round is entering territory never entered before

Yes, I can't argue with much of that and like I said I still think Andy will most likely win. Still with these facts in consideration I still think it is a very dangerous matchup. The surface really makes that Janowicz serve tough even for Murray to read. Andy serves pretty well, I don't doubt that. But he is streaky particularly with the quality of the second. There will be a premium on the first ball in this match up both the return and the serve.

It hinges on the quality of Murray's second serve and of Murray's return of serve.
Which I think summarises socal's post

Yes, precisely Julius. Murray can't give up a lot 75 mile an hour seconds without enough bite and spin, like he still can have tendency to do for spells in matches. If he gives Jerzy a big lead I actually think Jerzy has the game and the belief that Verdasco lacks.

Murray didn't have a bad 2nd serving match, he just plain has a bad 2nd serve. It's a given that'll get some stick.

The question is what he can do with the JJ serve.

Everyone's breakthrough event is their first.

It is a very interesting match-up. If Andy plays to a more consistent higher level than he managed against Verdasco then I think he will be fine. It would be great to see how things pan out with both at the top of their game - I'd still take Andy to win though. My worry (and I said it pre-tournament) is that Andy is not quite in the sort of form to win Wimbledon. Lets hope that changes in the next few days.

Murray went through a spell last year where he put more pop on the second serve. This year he seems to have slowed it down and tried to put more spin and kick on it. It might be that if he gets through to the final he'll go back to a bit more power because its Novak.

It would be a risky policy tomorrow to just kick it in as it would put balls right into the JJ hit zone because he's 80 foot tall!

But I do feel the whole match is about the JJ serve and whether Murray gets enough back. The longer a rally goes on the better for Murray. If JJ can keep the points short he'll have a good chance.

Socal, I'm starting to think you have got a thing for Eastern European players...! Lol

BTW, I had to laugh at the PseudoFed twitter post after the Murray-Verdasco match...

  I love pseudo Fed!

Another PseudoFed classic from Murray's 4th round on Monday

It's very funny satire.

Danny_1982 wrote:Murray went through a spell last year where he put more pop on the second serve. This year he seems to have slowed it down and tried to put more spin and kick on it. It might be that if he gets through to the final he'll go back to a bit more power because its Novak.

It would be a risky policy tomorrow to just kick it in as it would put balls right into the JJ hit zone because he's 80 foot tall!

But I do feel the whole match is about the JJ serve and whether Murray gets enough back. The longer a rally goes on the better for Murray. If JJ can keep the points short he'll have a good chance.

Danny. What fascinated me about the Verdasco match was the Spaniard's ability to stay in a multi-point rally and often come out on top - this was different to the player of 4 years ago!! I think that surprised Andy - but also thought it was a clever 'newish' tactic from Verdasco. If you remember Del Boy did the same at IW

Andy's achilles heel is that he positively hates anyone playing different to what he expected (look at him against Nole in the Aus 11 final)

Not certain that JJ has the experience to do something different and think if Andy dominates the rallies he wins. He is also more focussed when having lost to a player, in this stage of a slam

Well if he dominates the ralleys of course he wins given this isnt slick grass of old and its going to be a hot day...which will show us how fit Jerzy is too. Hauling a 6'8 frame around on a hot day for 3-4 hours will be tough. But Jerzy doesn't need to do different. If he's on he could simply hit right through Murray by being a) tough to break, b) whacking Murray's 2nd serves which will go into his wheelhouse.

BUT...it's his first slam semi, and its in the UK against a UK player, this is a massive test of his mettle. The other factor is whether his BH is good enough to hurt Murray on serve because trust me that's where most of Murray's 2nds will be going. Andy will also play loads of slices to keep the big man bending down, over 3-4 hours it will contribute to Jerzy's tiredness. Andy will try to draw the sting out of the pole today by extending the ralleys and having the big man bend every which way. Like I say, Jerzy will simply seek to outhit Murray...so he'll need to be seeing the ball like a football to make that work. He'll be buoyed by Verdaco's effort though...and Jerzy will play similar, massive serves & FHs. It's on Murray's racquet nonetheless.

Reckon the Pole would have had more chance if Murray had mown down Verdasco easily. As it is you could say that Murray has had his difficult match and will be more relaxed in the semi.
Could all come down to tiebreaks and Andy tends to win those. I'm ignoring all the SW19 shocks this year and I'm tipping Andy in straight sets.

 sfp

I think you could be right that the Verdasco match was the kick up the bottom that Andy needed.

I don't see Janowicz causing problems in the same way as Forehando did though - Andy seemed to be really struggling to control the ball because of the very heavy lefty spins, whereas JJ hits much flatter plus isn't a lefty. OK, so returning the serve of someone as tall and powerful as JJ is a challenge, but Andy has had success against Karlovic before so it's not as though it's an unknown.

Andy to win in 3 or 4, probably with a couple of tiebreak sets.*

* Note - given my recent ability at predicting results, I suggest you all put your life savings on Janowicz

Obviously, I will be gutted should Andy lose but it will signify a ground-breaking type of finalist. The first Pole to make a slam final and the first player seeded outside the top twenty to reach a men's slam final since god knows when.

"Forehando"...like it

In a way, from a neutral's perspective the game needs Janowicz to win. To be honest though I'd really like to see Del Po win the title...deserves it for sparing us the ignominy of Ferrer in a grass slam semi or final!

And in many ways should Andy lose I'd rather it was against Jerzy than Rafa or Roger.

JJ needs to get around 70% first serves in to have any chance of winning the match.

Andy needs to up the aggression by 90%!!!

Loads of people expect an easy match today but I think Andy might just sneak a set

I fancy Murray to take this in 4 sets. Jerzy has nothing to lose which could make him very dangerous, if the occasion doesnt get to him he could make life very uncomfortable for Murray. I just think Murray will ask too many questions of him with his retrieving skills. He will make the big guy play one more ball every time and this will lead to mistakes. I think couple of close sets to begin with before Murray pulls away comfortably towards the end.

Unless JJ serves lights out, Murray in three. If he does Murray in four. To paraphrase Mourinho - 'In normal conditions, Murray win, in abnormal conditions, Murray still wins'

I too think the fact that the tough match is now over for Murray he will find this one easy to manage.

JJ has a small chance but I think Murray will be too much for him. The win at Bercy was on the back of a long season for Murray so maybe he wasn't really focussing on Paris but London at the time.

What will let JJ down will be his double faults at key moment. Mind you, yesterday in his interview with Sue B he seemed to have put some thought into this match. He said he's had a feel of CC like the size/atmosphere etc. He also is expecting the partisan crowd and went onto say he hopes they won't put him off or try to break his game. Maybe he is mentally ready for it or maybe he is already stewing.

Just depends on how badly he wants it. Listening to his struggles etc he seems pretty hungry for success but I think its a little step too far this time round.

Murray with his experience and ability is the favourite to win this match, but his opponent is a dangerous one and has the weapons to do it. I feel that if JJ is to do it he needs to get his nose in front like Verdasco did. Of the two I feel that Murray is more likely to be able to stage a comeback should it prove necessary.

I didn't have this feeling before but after the comeback vs Verdasco, I think Murray will take this title. Had he cruised through to the final I would have expected a bump in the road there but like Federer last year vs Benneteau, the five setter showed he was ready for the challenge. JJ has to play lights out tennis if he stands a chance.

I think Murray will win. I mean, if he doesn't what does that say? Losing to a much younger lower ranked rival sounds ominous.