Great Weekend Ahead

OK so some posters on here have criticised the pool stages for having to many smaller teams in it and to many one-sided games but thats an argument for other threads.

One thing that can't be denied if there are some cracking games coming up Fri-Sun, with (Pool A aside) 2 possibly 3 sides in some groups still having the chance to qualify.

I think Wales and Argentina have the advantage to a degree as by the time they kick off they will know what points they need to qualify, Argentina also have Georgia after a short turn around.

Italy will know that if they beat Ireland they themselves could make their first quarter final, you expect Australia to get winning BP against Russia.

Scotland already know that they have to beat England but there is also a (very big) outside chance that they could send England home in the Pool Stages and they would love to do that.

SO as they say BRING IT ON

how can you forget about Samoa vs SA?

bil,

Apologies didn't forget about it and am looking forward to it but thats what I mean by Wales knowing what they have to do.

Depending on the outcome of this game we (Wales) could actually lose to Fiji and still qualify. Hope we don't have that mentality because winning breeds convindence and we need to build on the good foundations now being built.

I can't see wales losing to fiji, they are not as strong as 4 years ago.

Biggest games are

Eng v Sco
Ire v Ita
Fij v Wal
Arg v Geo

In that order.

Really stand? You think Argentina v Georgia and Wales v Fiji are bigger games than SA v Samoa. I would say Samoa have as much chance of causing an upset as Fiji or Georgia, perhaps more so. I don't think there'll be any upsets in those games though.

Italy v Ireland is the biggest game this weekend I think because it's winner takes all for both sides followed by England v Scotland. Massive games.

This is the biggest weekend of the RWC yet I think.

Wales already know they have to beat Fiji to go through - forget a bonus point defeat - They have to win

Samoa on there best day,versus the Boks on there worse day?Sorry just can`t see them winning.
I think it will be decided NH style,they have a good scrum/maul/breakdown/goalkicker.
But an indifferent Lineout,there discipline is so/so the most disappointing
match for me was.Samoa v Fiji,scrappy,little flair,Fiji did`nt wake up until the game was gone.

Italy v Ireland will be a monster,both sides can qualify,Ireland MUST win to do so.Unless Australia trip up but THAT really would be a surprise.
If its outside Scotland could beat England but not by 4 tries which I think is what is required.

The Ireland Italy match is the biggest this weekend as i expect England to beat Scotland. Italy do have the quality to push Ireland but Ireland will be too strong in the end i feel. I cant imagine an open and expansive game though. Just expect a real forwards clash with ROG pinning Italy in their 22.

Chances of an upset in the major games:
Ranked out of 10
1 = no chance. 5 = possible. 10 = great chance

Eng v Sco - 7
Ire v Ita - 5
SA v Samoa - 4
Fij v Wal - 3

Rugby fan, do you honestly feel that Scotland have a better chance of upsetting England that Italy do of upsetting Ireland? I am not being rude but i cant agree with you there.

Yes! But I hope that you are right and I am wrong!

Fair enough. I just cant see it myself. England will have too much class for Scotland and i hope that Ireland beat Italy comfortably but i always have this dodgy feeling about Ireland when it comes to knock out games.

Both games are hard to call - logic says that the England and Ireland players are better than their opposite numbers, but that doesn't always determine how the game pans out.

England and Ireland both have the potential to beat their opposition by 15-20 points if they play well.

Exactly and i cant see the form book changing on that one. The only problem i have with the Ireland Italy match is the mental side to Ireland. They never seem to play that well when its do or die, they seem to put far too much pressure on themselves.

England have the mental ability and pedigree to overcome that which is why i cant see the slipping up against Scotland.

I do not see Italy upsetting Ireland, if they come out with everything working and they do find a way to dominate and slow the game down it could perhaps be a close dire affair.

But Ireland is too confident in their own abilities to allow Italy to control the game upfront and with the speed and skill ireland has out wide, even the tiniest opportunities will be exploited.

It can be a good game, as long as Ireland don't give Italy the opportunity to bog them down.

I have a feeling that Italy will do just that Biltongbek and Ireland will comply so i expect a very dire game. It depends on what DK wants to do, if he selects ROG then he will be looking for field advantage and the forwards pressuring Italy. If he selects Sexton then he will be looking for the expansive game.

Come on WALES !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Has Italy beaten Ireland recently? Has Scotland beaten England recently? Lets say since the last RWC (but you can choose any period) that would give us some idea of the likelihood of an upset

Italy is on a 15 match losing streak to Ireland, their last win was in 1997, three of their last 5 matches they lost within a score.

since the last RWC Scotland played 4 matches against England, they won 1 and drew 1, all at home, their last encounter was lost by less than a score.

biltongbek wrote:Italy is on a 15 match losing streak to Ireland, their last win was in 1997, three of their last 5 matches they lost within a score.

since the last RWC Scotland played 4 matches against England, they won 1 and drew 1, all at home, their last encounter was lost by less than a score.

Yeah I think those are important factors to consider. Traditionally Scotland and England have been much closer in terms or ability and results than Ireland and Italy.

However if you look at the trends of the recent results you could argue that Italy have been narrowing the gap with Ireland but Scotland have maybe fallen further behind England in recent seasons, with their last victory being in 2008. Both their last two meetings could have gone either way though.

eirebilly wrote:Rugby fan, do you honestly feel that Scotland have a better chance of upsetting England that Italy do of upsetting Ireland? I am not being rude but i cant agree with you there.

Billy, if you look at these 2 corresponding 6 Nations matches only a few months ago you have to accept I'm afraid that the guy has a valid point

eirebilly wrote:Rugby fan, do you honestly feel that Scotland have a better chance of upsetting England that Italy do of upsetting Ireland? I am not being rude but i cant agree with you there.

good point.

Ireland and Italy are far closer than Scotland and England.

roddersm - its not about wins but ability.

Look how often Italy have pushed Ireland close over the last couple of years, add the Italian win over France and Italy's last two wins which were pegging even compared to irelands games v USA and Russia then we have the makings of a tasty match indeed

damage_13 wrote:roddersm - its not about wins but ability.

Look how often Italy have pushed Ireland close over the last couple of years, add the Italian win over France and Italy's last two wins which were pegging even compared to irelands games v USA and Russia then we have the makings of a tasty match indeed

I know that. Even in terms of ability Scotland have been very close to England and the past 5 results show that.

Ireland just about escaped Rome with a win this year but England were also very nearly turned over at Twickenham by the Scots and only pulled away in the last 10 minutes. Both matches could have gone either way.

The form book usually goes out the window in the RWC so anything could happen but England are in the strongest position because Scotland need a bonus point whereas Italy and Ireland both only need a win.

I dont think Scotland need a bonus point - they just need to stop England getting one - therefore an 8 -0 victory would see Scotland through. Only problem there is that they'd have to score a try for that scoreline!! - Best go for a 15-7 victory

Scotland to win but not enough to qualify (less than 7)

I just cant see this England team progressing past the QF. Not enough in the pack (or backs)

I feel there will be a few guys on here deeply disappointed come Monday week.

Boyne if that happens I think its odds on that it will send the anglos to play the All blacks in the 1/4's - Some vicarious pleasure for some Scots me thinks

Standulstermen wrote:Biggest games are

Eng v Sco
Ire v Ita
Fij v Wal
Arg v Geo

In that order.

Tonga v France. Massive Tongan upset, and game of the tournament so far.

TheGreyGhost wrote:

Standulstermen wrote:Biggest games are

Eng v Sco
Ire v Ita
Fij v Wal
Arg v Geo

In that order.

Tonga v France. Massive Tongan upset, and game of the tournament so far.

Would be great, but I can't see it happening...

Maka made some rather provocative statements didn't he?

Apparently Tonga will target the weak French front row.

He believes only 2 of the backs are the best in their position available to France.

He thinks the French mid-field is weak and will be dominated by the Tongans.

I'm prepared to agree with him, because it would be so funny to see France go down again. Karma, surely.

France will destroy Tonga and Argentina will show teams how to get a bonus point

Welcome back GG have you been visiting fantasy island.apparently if France win 97-0 or more.
Canada have a bonus point win ,The All Blacks go home.

emack, the All Blacks will qualify as pool winners regardless of the results this weekend.

Ruby, if Scotland win by less than 7 England get a bonus point to put them on 15 points. Then, assuming Scotland don't get 4 tries, England and Argentina will probably be on 15 points with Scotland on 14. England take the pool on direct results and Scotland go home, with Argentina facing the All Blacks.

In every pool it is the original 2nd seed vs the original 3rd seed:

A2 (France) Vs A3 (Tonga)
B2 (England) Vs B3 (Scotland)
C2 (Ireland) Vs C3 (Italy)
D2 (Wales) Vs D3 (Fiji)

This was always set to be a showdown weekend, which is why these games have been given prime-billing in the European time zone (it's meant to be every European nation fighting for qualification). These were all set up to be "winner take all games", but because England beat Argentina, Ireland beat Australia and Fiji lost to Samoa they aren't quite that, but are still very big games.

New Zealand, Argentina, Australia and South Africa (being top seeds) are meant to dispatch their opposition comfortably, and I can only see Samoa causing a problem (still think they'll lose without a bonus point though).

I don't know how many times I'm going to have to tell you that Tonga will beat France. But they will.

How much do you want a bet GG? Your suggestion IMO is bordering on the psychotic

TheGreyGhost wrote:I don't know how many times I'm going to have to tell you that Tonga will beat France. But they will.

Will Tonga simultaneously restrict France to 0 match points and get the full 5 points they need to qualify though?

Tonga 22 France 13

You read it here first.

I'll take the astonished questions of wonderment about how I managed to so accurately predict such an upset after the game.

TheGreyGhost wrote:Tonga 22 France 13

You read it here first.

I think thats the only place we'll read it .

roddersm wrote:

TheGreyGhost wrote:Tonga 22 France 13

You read it here first.

I think thats the only place we'll read it .

I beg to differ Rodders - i will be reminding the great GG of it on the weekend after France have racked up 40 plus points on their way to the final

Genius is always mocked before it is recognised.

Laugh it up, chaps.

TheGreyGhost wrote:Genius is always mocked before it is recognised.

Laugh it up, chaps.

I think you've just fallen into your own trap GG as all you try to do is mock everyone elses views on here

TheGreyGhost wrote:Tonga 22 France 13

You read it here first.

I'll take the astonished questions of wonderment about how I managed to so accurately predict such an upset after the game.

4 tries and a conversion or something else? Very important re: qualification. Unless Canada win with a TBP against the All-Blacks...

TheGreyGhost wrote:Genius is always mocked before it is recognised.

rugbyfan wrote:Chances of an upset in the major games:
Ranked out of 10
1 = no chance. 5 = possible. 10 = great chance

Eng v Sco - 7
Ire v Ita - 5
SA v Samoa - 4
Fij v Wal - 3

Interesting that the game you have as the least likely upset is between the teams that recorded the closest result in a recent match, gave us an upset last time around, and where the favourite team hasn't beaten their opponent by more than 1 point for a decade.

TheGreyGhost wrote:Tonga 22 France 13

You read it here first.

I'll take the astonished questions of wonderment about how I managed to so accurately predict such an upset after the game.

I'll take that apology for calling me psychotic RubyGuby

GreyGhost you are a genius!

I'm sure all this beer is a bad idea right now.

Good luck England, and likewise Scotland.

TheGreyGhost wrote:
Good luck England, and likewise Scotland.