Aviva Table

2 Months into the season now, internationals returning, HC not far away. With the world cup out of the way the and the 6 nations a while away yet the domestic season is really hotting up.

Quins top the table but werent affected much by player loss over the world cup, can they stay there? I dont think so, Its only a matter of time before they are hunted down by sarries, their performance against gloucester at kingsholm was ominous indeed. Some of their cynical play will not endear Sarries to neutral fans but no one can deny their quality and desire to win.

At the other end Newcastle and Worcester look set to be fighting it out for relegation and it doesnt look good for the falcons they have avoided relagation narrowly a few times in recent years and this could be their year, I just feel they have let to many talented youngesters move on and the board need to show some ambition. Exeter, already have shown last year was not a one off and they look well capable of avoiding the relegation battle again.

Leicester and northamton have obviously missed their internationals and will undoubtedly improve but it remains to be seen if both can push their way back into the top 4 as well as maintaining a challenge in the HC. Glouscester also have started slowly, missing a few players, i expect them to improve also but i feel the top 4 will be beyond them this year.

Sale have started magnificiently but they were comfortably beaten by leicester at the week end and I can not see them maintaining their lofty position, whilst I dont believe they will become embroiled in the relegation battle and dont believe they will be challenging for a HC place either. 2 other sides i feel will struggle to match recent achievements are London Irish and London Wasps, both teams have great attacking qualities but lack quality in depth. Both clubs seem to be struggling financially and certainly in the face of some of the opposition.

I think bath have recruited well and started well dispite missing many players, i thin they look pretty good for a return to the playoffs theis year.

I f i had to predict the table come the end of the season I would go for:

sarries
leicester
bath
quins
northamton
gloucester
irish
wasps
sale
exeter
worcester
newcastle

1 Saracens 79
2 Harlequins 65
3 Leicester 62
4 Wasps 54
5 Northampton 53
6 Gloucester 52
7 London Irish 50
8 Sale 49
9 Exeter 49
10 Bath 49
11 Worcester 38
12 Newcastle 26


You heard it here first

Tiger if that is right i will be gob smacked!

I can see Exeter finishing higher up then that and i think you're being a little naughty with your Bath prediction!

Saracens
Quins
Leicester
London Irish
Gloucester
Saints
Bath
Exeter
Wasps
Sale
worcester
Falcons

tiger. what makes you think wasps will go well?

LondonTiger wrote:1 Saracens 79
2 Harlequins 65
3 Leicester 62
4 Wasps 54
5 Northampton 53
6 Gloucester 52
7 London Irish 50
8 Sale 49
9 Exeter 49
10 Bath 49
11 Worcester 38
12 Newcastle 26


You heard it here first

Sarries will be mooching around the top spot by finals time as they have a very strong pack, solid defence and good kickers. They may be boring & cynical (Tigers used to get called that a lot back in the day) but they know how to strangle a team, force the penalties and win nasty.

I would be delighted if Tigers make the top 4 but I think it is going to be very interesting now Glaws & Saints are back up to full(ish) strength.

Can't help but feel Quins are artificially high in the table, aided by the RWC and wouldn't be surprised to see them slide down to mid table by season end.

I think Exeter will finish above Sale and could push for HEC spots.

Bath in 10th!

Newcastle are going down to the championship this year I'm afraid.

Let us not forget that the 6N is looming into view and that is going to effect Tiggers, Saints & Glaws especially with player losses again at crucial times.

HQ matt wrote:tiger. what makes you think wasps will go well?

I was sad enough to go through the fixtures and try and predict each match!

As my predictions vary between 3 and 6 right each weekend though, and as it ended up so close in teh fight for 4th spot it could look very different.

My predictions leave us with 5 points between 4th and 10th so anyone bar Worcester and Falcons could make play-offs.

I agree with teh OP that it is unlikely that both Saints and tigers will make the play-offs - but not impossible.

Quins may be artificially high. But for the last few seasons we've been knocking around the top 4 and 6. With the WC and soon the 6N's drawing players away, even if we are struggling i think we're doing enough to get top 4, maybe only 4th spot in the end though.

Alot I suppose depends on Januaries EPS, will who ever picks stick with alot of the current players, there by screwing Tigers and Saints or will he go for some new players and spread the load a bit more.

Sarries are the only nailed on top 4 finisher, and are probably going to top the table; too much experience and too good a squad.

With my multicoloured specs on, I don't think Quins' position is distorted too much. With the exception of Leicester, they haven't beaten anyone you'd expect them to lose to, they've found a variety of ways to win, have won when not playing well and their very young LV= squad has picked up two good wins against more experienced (if not full strength) squads. I'd be very disappointed not to be top 4.

Despite the whining, Leicester will probably make the top 4. They've been there and done that enough to know how to grind it out.

Can't see beyond Newcastle for the drop, with Worcester in 11th but clear ahead of them.

The other 7 places are actually pretty hard to call. I think Saints might miss out on top 4 this year as might LI - in both cases squad depth will be an achilles heel. Wasps have started brightly but may not be able to hold it together. Exeter should be targeting top 6 but will need to maintain their form to get there.

So:
Sarries
Quins
Gloucester
Leicester
Sale
Bath
Saints
Exeter
London Irish
Wasps
Worcester
Newcastle

good point about the january EPS and the 6 nations that could well be a factor in the final standings.

poor four. i wouldnt be suprised to see wasps down there but surely irish are better than exeter and sale

I think Saracens, Quins and Leicester are pretty definite for the top four, leaving a bun fight between Sale, Bath, Gloucester, Wasps, Saints, Chiefs and Irish for the remaining spot.

The reality is that Sarries and Tigers are head and shoulders above everyone else really, and Quins have too good a start to drop out of the play off spots now. The other 7 teams mentioned are all really pretty even in terms of the ability of their first XV, but all lack depth in one area or another, and key as to who gets the remaining play off place, and the Heineken Cup spots will be injuries to key players and 6 Nations ommissions.

Newcastle will be relegated. (Sorry Falcons fans)

yappysnap wrote:But for the last few seasons we've been knocking around the top 4 and 6. With the WC and soon the 6N's drawing players away, even if we are struggling i think we're doing enough to get top 4, maybe only 4th spot in the end though.

Can't help but agree with you here mate. In principle I do like Quins (when your not playing Tigers of course ) but you'll forgive me when I say they are a good mid table to top team but just don't quite have the firepower yet to be consistently top 4.

Have been watching Wallace with much interest as it's good to see such a young dedicate openside getting game time. One of my top tips for future England honours.

HQ Matt - I'm guessing (as we all are), but I feel that Irish are too vulnerable to injuries in key positions - it's been their Achilles heel in previous years, and I don't see that they've addressed it with this year's squad. But I'm willing to be surprised.

Metal Tiger - historically, yes. Quins have flattered to deceive over the last few seasons. But those of us who've been watching closely are seeing something different about Quins. If you look at their match stats, they are often only on a par with or even behind their opposition on everything (except of course points scored). Compared to last season's start, games that were narrow losses are now narrow wins. There's also a grit about the team that hasn't been there before.

Only time will tell whether they can keep it up over a season and beyond, but they've been building to this for some time and so far this season the only real concern is that our pack is vulnerable to older and wiser front rows (and refs who don't know what to look for).

i think the test for quuins will come in the winter months when the set piece comes under pressure from more experienced teams, if they can win enough of those games, especially at home, top 4 wont be a problem.

If you look at what, historically, a club has needed to do to get into the top 4, from where Quins are now they would need about 32 additional points. Mathematically, it's pretty doable:

There are 7 remaining home games - assume 5 wins and losses to Tigers and Sarries
There are 8 remaining away games - assume 2 wins (Falcons and one of Wasps or Sale)
Assume 4 bps from LBPs or tries

The challenge will be maintaining momentum

Im obviously biased, but would be devastated, disappointed and shocked if Bath don't make top 4. With Donald and Louw coming into the squad as well.

Bathite wrote:Im obviously biased, but would be devastated, disappointed and shocked if Bath don't make top 4. With Donald and Louw coming into the squad as well.

To quote Yoda:

"Mmmmm... One man, a team, does not make."

You can't seriously be pinning a top 4 finish on the arrival of 2 players, no matter how good?

I'm not at all, im basing it on form over last 4 or so seasons, in which only failed to make top 4 once and that we seem to have finally got the ability to close out close games and not throw them away at the end (Sarries aside). In addition to Donald and Louw coming along in crucial positions and areas of responsibility of game mgmt and breakdown domination!

Well looking at the table its easy to pick the bottom teams. Sadly, despite massive efforts by the players on the pitch, Newcastle looks the favourite to go down. Worcester might play themselves down, but look a bit better than Newcastle at the moment.

The top is harder. Both Northampton and Leicester have started rolling in their last two matches now they are complete teams again. But can they make the top 6, then the top 4 before the season ends? I think they can certainly make the top 6, and at least one will be top 4. I think both will do well in the HC this year as well. Sarries will be top before the season ends. But regarding Quins, let's see them in a few matches with all the RWC players back before deciding their future.

Bathite wrote:Im obviously biased, but would be devastated, disappointed and shocked if Bath don't make top 4. With Donald and Louw coming into the squad as well.

I may be bias too, but I'd be devastated, disappointed and shocked if Bath DO make top 4!

Whilst Donald and Louw are decent players, neither address the weakness of your front 5 which i feel will stop you breaking into the top 4 this year.

I think this year is going to be as close as any other year, with the exception of Sarries who will top the league. The top 6 will be, but not neccessarily in this order: Sarries, Leicester, Saints, Quins, Glaws & Bath. Newcastle will finish bottom, but will be saved by the team winning the Championship not fulfilling the stupid stadium rules!

It occurs to me that some people round these 'ere parts are writing Bath off a mite too easily. I wonder why that would be?

Maybe the summer recruits and the strong possibility that Bath are unlikely to be much affected by the 6N at the business end of the season are making some of you nervous?

It's Bath's best start for two seasons and the squad is much better equipped for this campaign than the previous two, so maybe there's cause for concern?

I don't think anyone is really writing Bath off PJ. As I said, I think they are one of about 7 clubs who will all be competing for 1 spot in the play offs behind Sarries, Tigers and Quins.

Ozzy3213 wrote:I don't think anyone is really writing Bath off PJ. As I said, I think they are one of about 7 clubs who will all be competing for 1 spot in the play offs behind Sarries, Tigers and Quins.

Well I reckon you're right about 2 of the 3 Oz but it will be a bit of a mix up for the last two spots.

My post had a couple of people in mind, and to be quite frank, when you consider where "their" respective teams are in the table, you'd think they'd have a little less to say just now.

Sarries will win the league and probably the play-off. I think Saints and Tigers have time to make it to the top 4. I think the 4th side will be Quins. The only other side I can see breaking in this season is Bath.

Having said that, there are lots of evenly matched sides in the AP, and if a LI or a Gloucester got on run you couldn't rule them out.

I don't think Newcastle will finish bottom, I think it will be Worcester.

DaveM wrote:Sarries will win the league and probably the play-off. I think Saints and Tigers have time to make it to the top 4. I think the 4th side will be Quins. The only other side I can see breaking in this season is Bath.

Having said that, there are lots of evenly matched sides in the AP, and if a LI or a Gloucester got on run you couldn't rule them out.

I don't think Newcastle will finish bottom, I think it will be Worcester.

I'd broadly agree with that Dave, but I think the squads for the 6N will be key to deciding the third and fourth spots in the play-offs, as things stand at the moment I can only see Bath losing two players, possibly three at most to 6N duty, and I woiuld expect at least one of those would be released back to club during that time.

All of which will leave Bath in a very strong position during a time where 4 AP fixtures will be played, both Leicester and Saints will have to play Sarries and Gloucester during this period, with Bath lining up against Newcastle, Gloucester, Exeter and Worcester. That six week period will be crucial I think.