Mavs Weekly European & Challenge tour update - WGC HSBC Champions

First topic message reminder :

So to start the weeks update with a little touch of de Ja vu, in as much that we are again congratulating Sergio Garcia on a tournament win in Spain. The thing El Nino can take from his 2nd victory in as many weeks is that this time he closed out when not playing his best, unlike the previous week where he left the field in his wake. Moving back up to number 18 in the world is a great step on the road to recovery for Sergio and let’s hope it’s truly just the begining.
So now we move forward to the WGC HSBC Champions event at Sheshan International Club in Shanghai.
Last year this event became a bit of a 2 horse race between Francesco Molinari and Lee Westwood. Notable tied 3rd place finshers were Luke Donald who has now gone onto become World No.1 and Richie Ramsey who has hit form in his last 2 events before returning to China.

SO what do we know about this week?

1. Firstly the main notable absentee, OWGR #1 Luke Donald. No point really highlighting the field and trying to pick a winner as except for Luke and a few high profile yanks everyone that is anyone plus a few more is here.

2. 11 of the finishers inside the top 12 at Sheshan in 2010 were European tour members

3. There will be 13 major winners competing at Sheshan this week

4. Established in 2009 by Diasuke Maruyama and then matched by Ernie Els and Rory McIlroy, in the
same event, the course record stands at 63

5. There has only ever been one player to win this event after leading every round from round 1 through 4 and that’s defending champion Francesco Molinari

6. The course opened in 2004, Measures at 7253 yards and holes 16, 17 and 18 are course designers Neil Haworth’s perfect picture finish to his course.

Not much else to say about this event other than it’s on at ridiculous o’clock in the morning so viewing figures will really vary which is what makes this the hardest WGC to follow unless your able to be up at the crack of dawn.

Challenge Tour

So its grand final week on the CT, this is it. It’s do or die moment for many players looking to make the tour proper in the very last event. The ones that are locked on to make are likely to be numbers 1-12 on the money list with the ones outside that number likely to fluctuate over the course of the event.
San Domenico is the venue for this event and last year’s winner our very own (through my association and constant will for him to make it) Matt Haines secured number 2 spot on the CT Money list, so many will be looking to emulate that this week.

Tommy Fleetwood who has led the money list for so long this season see’s himself at #2 now on the list having been passed by fellow Englishman Sam Little, both playing will want to secure bragging rights to being the number 1 ranked player to have finished the season on the CT and with just over 11000Euros separating them it really is going to the wire.
So can someone from this year’s CT emulate the likes of previous graduate Ed Molinari and go on to win the following season on the ET proper or will they be heading back to Q-School next year. One things for sure for all of these guys whatever happens the work really begins this Thursday either way


*MODS any chance of the usual weekly sticky please

Simba - If true, that's an amazing statistic about the World #1 who makes his home here in these United States and plays "lots" on the US Tour. Clearly the most consistent golfer of the year, however, and most likely POY. Dominating? Hardly -- but at or near the top plenty. Like his countryman Westwood, I'm guessing he would gladly give up the #1 ranking to hoist a major trophy. Luke certainly can win one, but will he?

I'm hoping Rory moves operations to the US and commits to this tour. I think a whole bunch of guys are just keeping the #1 ranking and more major trophies warm for him.

Length isn't the be all and end all. Luke has admitted chasing length and that it messed up his game. When Zach Johnson won the Masters how many eagles did he have? Not many, laid up on all the par fives and made plenty of birdies. Why can't the same thing happen for Luke?

Will Rory mature? He's really streaky, blew away the field in the US Open but his putting was on that week, he couldn't buy a putt yesterday. When he is on there aren't many players who can live with him but the putter has to work.

Luke's all round game is certainly good enough. He has played fewer tournaments on both tours and still won and is winning the money lists. He has won more than 1 tournament in 8 years by the way.

We'll just have to agree to disagree; you don't think he has the game to compete, I think he has. Time will tell.

PS just read Kwini's post and agree with the sentiments

K,

Woof! Woof!
Kinder and gentler Simba here.

Average stats only indicates Luke's strength from 100 yard in. But when you are fighting for the US Open on final Sunday, you need to be able to get on a big par 5 in two. Rory has the ability to get on many whilst Luke would not be able to do so as much. Thats my point. There is limit to Luke physical ability verse the big talents on tour. He is now kicking their ar$$ with his mental toughness. That won't last forever. If and when someone like a Rory, Day gains that same toughness, it's game over for Luke.

The key to being short is having accuracy, if you can hit every club where you want it you can cope with being short. You don't need to get on par 5s in two if you hit it to ten feet with your wedge every time, like Zach Johnson did at Augusta. Problem is, Luke doesn't always do that... his driving stats in particular are pretty average. When he hits it straight, his approach play and short game make him as unbeatable as anyone can be, but when the accuracy goes AWOL, Simba's right, someone will nip in ahead of him.

I would say, Kaymer, Rory would be fighting it out with Tiger in the next three years for the top spot in owgr. By the end of next year, Luke will just be a footnote.

Grump,

I DO think Luke has the game to compete certainly. But he doesn't have a game to be dominant! Big huge difference there.

Luke is what I would say the exact opposite of Lee Westwood. Lee has the physical attributes to be the top gun. But he doesn't have the mental part and the finesse part of the game to dominate. Make no mistake, you don't become dominate just because you are long. You have to have both the physical and the mental to do it. Look at Dustin Johnson, he may have the most physical ability on tour aside from Quiro of Spain. But I'd never expect him to be dominant. Of the young guns, Day, Rory have the best chances!

Ned, you're right he has to be in play to take real advantage but that argument can be pointed at everyone. Same thing happened with Adam Scott over the weekend, had the length to easily reach a lot of the par fives in 2 but couldn't get it in play to take advantage.

What Luke has accomplished is immensely impressive already. If he never picks up a club again, he should be proud of what he already has accomplished. He has all my respects!

Okay, you all know I am partial to four legged animals. Let me give you an example, Tiger in this year's Masters, eagled that par 5 8th hole, arguably the most difficult par 5 at Augusta. Could Luke have ever done that without holing his shot from the fair way?

That's essentially the problem with Luke, a shorter hitter in a nutshell!

Simba - that will depend on which Kaymer turns up, the model of German efficiency like last night or one from an East German production line. Rory has to fix his putting demons and Tiger may never recover fully from all his injuries and periods in exile.

You've changed your posts during this thread so it is difficult to read back and discuss what you have previously said. I said time will tell so we'll have to wait and see.

Simba wrote:I would say, Kaymer, Rory would be fighting it out with Tiger in the next three years for the top spot in owgr. By the end of next year, Luke will just be a footnote.

In three years time? Rory, Kaymer, Charl, Jason Day. Luke will still be up in the top 3 or 4 this time next year though. Think your Tiger stuff is wishful thinking myself...

Grumpy,

If I could see into the future, I won't be here talking to you all. I'd be in Vegas. Of course you could pick any player on tour and they would all have a question mark attached to them. But based on history and potential, those three are the most likely candidates for no. 1 in the next few years.

Ned,

Wishful thinking is me hoping to win the lotto when I have never purchased a ticket. Tiger returning to a semblence of his yesteryear form is not far fetched. After all, if he had played a full schedule at his current form, making cuts in 80% of the times and placing an odd top ten or two he would still be ranked in the top ten. Try this on for size, all of the top ten players this year have missed more cuts than Tiger did except Luke Donald. So, it is really not that hard for Tiger to regain no. 1 a year or two from now.

Will he ever return to his prime dominance, not likely at the moment. But when he wins a couple of times next year, I'm sure all the outlook will change with it.

Great use of statistics, how about this one: Tiger only made 5 cuts on the PGA tour. Anyway, when has Tiger ever played a full schedule?

History, potential, seeing the future and wishful thinking you almost counter your own arguments in the last two posts. Seems to be a big case of if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle however that can be applied to a lot of the discussions on here.

Grumpy getting grumpy!

Tired too...

SmithersJones wrote:I'm not going to start a separate thread, but does anyone else think that Westwood has had the worst year of all the top players? A couple of 'little' wins in Asia aside, he's done pretty much nothing all year. I had high hopes for him going into this final round, given his position and the fact that he'd improved a shot each day and had 3 rounds in the 60s, but out in 40 and a total of 74 when Kaymer's shooting 63 is just disappointing. Unless he wins in Dubai he'll have had a nothing year.

I hadn't really thought about it, but I agree you're right in that it's not been a great year for Mr Westwood.

It might have been a good year if he had edged out the BMW PGA mind you - probably my favourite moment of the golfing year, Lee v Luke in a play-off, with world #1 ranking on the line in sudden death matchplay.

Simba,

Top ten I could see. He has thrown in some decent results, the last couple of Masters being the best examples... but with his schedule he needs to be winning lots to compete for the No 1 spot, and I don't think he'll manage that. I can see him hanging around the middle reaches of the top 50, always being a threat in the big events but not playing enough to move any higher, almost like a semi-retired vet.

Ned,

That's a very fair accessment! I think it will take Tiger about 18 months playing at a high level, close to 2008 forms, to get back to no.1. To get back to top 10, he needs to be his average self and get at about 6.5 point average. With the divisor being at 40 for him, he will need about 150 points to get there. So, it's very conceivable for him to get there by June next year. Now to get to no.1 he will need to be at around 10 point average, assuming Luke tapering off his hot play a little. Tiger will need to have to garner about 300 points in the next 12 months to get there. Need about 3 big wins and a bunch of top 5's. I'd say there is a small chance of that, especially if he wins one of the majors next year.

But the biggest worry for people in the business is that his knee has to hold up and not having another injury.

Wonder how much OWGR points will on offer this week at Aussie Open?

Simba wrote:Okay, you all know I am partial to four legged animals. Let me give you an example, Tiger in this year's Masters, eagled that par 5 8th hole, arguably the most difficult par 5 at Augusta. Could Luke have ever done that without holing his shot from the fair way?

That's essentially the problem with Luke, a shorter hitter in a nutshell!

Yet, he's the best player in the world by an absolute mile.

Simba wrote:Ned,

That's a very fair accessment! I think it will take Tiger about 18 months playing at a high level, close to 2008 forms, to get back to no.1. To get back to top 10, he needs to be his average self and get at about 6.5 point average. With the divisor being at 40 for him, he will need about 150 points to get there. So, it's very conceivable for him to get there by June next year. Now to get to no.1 he will need to be at around 10 point average, assuming Luke tapering off his hot play a little. Tiger will need to have to garner about 300 points in the next 12 months to get there. Need about 3 big wins and a bunch of top 5's. I'd say there is a small chance of that, especially if he wins one of the majors next year.

But the biggest worry for people in the business is that his knee has to hold up and not having another injury.

Its all very well saying that its possible he can get back to where he was, we all know how good he was years ago but its another thing it actually happening. I might be wrong but near enough since his last win, apart from the masters last year, where a tiger of old would have won that tournament IMO (Even allowing for Charl's 4 birdies to finish) he hasnt looked like winning a tournament at all.

super_realist wrote:

Simba wrote:Okay, you all know I am partial to four legged animals. Let me give you an example, Tiger in this year's Masters, eagled that par 5 8th hole, arguably the most difficult par 5 at Augusta. Could Luke have ever done that without holing his shot from the fair way?

That's essentially the problem with Luke, a shorter hitter in a nutshell!

Yet, he's the best player in the world by an absolute mile.

Not to mention Zach Johnson won the masters without ever going for a Par 5 in two

Maverick wrote:

super_realist wrote:

Simba wrote:Okay, you all know I am partial to four legged animals. Let me give you an example, Tiger in this year's Masters, eagled that par 5 8th hole, arguably the most difficult par 5 at Augusta. Could Luke have ever done that without holing his shot from the fair way?

That's essentially the problem with Luke, a shorter hitter in a nutshell!

Yet, he's the best player in the world by an absolute mile.

Not to mention Zach Johnson won the masters without ever going for a Par 5 in two

Mike Weir isn't a big hitter either.

Ahem, Mav, I think you will find a reference to God Squad Johnson on page 2 (can't get quote thingey to work properly) when Simba brought up the lack of Donald's length for the first, second or third time

donald does have amazing par 5 scores doenst he. 4th and he rarely goes for the greens in 2!!

everyone knows donalds putting is god like, his chipping and bunker play is also god like. but not many realise what an amazing wedge player he is.

on to his long game

i personally think that donald could use his driver less and score even better than he does at present- donalds worse part of his game is surely his driving- but there is something great about his iron play-these days the spin players get and donalds accuracy with his longer irons that dont get the same bite on the greens could become a plus to him. that soft landing shot is so much easier to judge distance wise

but either way if donald can sort out his driving next year- he will still be world no.1.

Zack Johnson, Mike Weir, all great examples of winning with limited physical talents. I would put Luke Donald as a player a tad above the aforementioned duo. However, Luke will not be a perennial no.1 for his limitation in the physical talent part, which is reflected most obviously over his length. But, physical ability helps ones game out in many areas, not just off the tee. If you are strong like a Tiger, Phil, Els, VJ, you can get away with more bad shots in a round than Luke would have. This makes what Luke has accomplished even more impressive. But back to topic. Luke may just win a major like a Zack Johnson, a David Toms, or a Mike Weir one day. But he will only have a small window to be a great player for a stretch and then be relegated to the run of the mill type of good PGA Tour players. That window is this past year. I bet he would not come close to the accomplishment of this in 2012

Golf is after all a sport and it requires all the physical attributes of a good athlete to be the very best. Not everyone can be Tiger Woods. But you need to be close in the physical department to establish a similar dominance over your peers. Luke is just not talented eough in all departments to be able to do it in LNG stretches. Most of you on here are UK based and may not like my point. But it is obvious to me that when Kaymer and Rory get more seasoning, they would leave Luke in the dust on a golf course.

simba i think the problem with doanld is that he is a late starter. He hasnt won a major yet, but he could win more than 1 he could win 3 or 4, he may never win 1- kaymer and mcilroy have got to the top of the game very young and are two of the biggest talents the game has - undobtedly- but history doesnt really back up your case as below

look at padraig harrington over lets say garcia for example(3 to nil)

or one that is very apparant in this case faldo v norman(considering that faldo was never a power player and reatively short)

the mind game is the one that wins you majors and puts you above your peers not the physical one.

anyway donald isnt that short, but the problem is - has he got the mental strengh- he has the game and i am sure many would say he is a better player now than countless major winners have been.

but the problem isnt his length- no far from it- its will he produce what he can on the major days.

Mysti,

Every pro on tour is a great wedge player. Nothing that Luke does that most his peers don't. As a matter of fact, Phil is way better than Luke as wedge player. F. Molinari is better. What separated Luke this year is his consistency, putting, and mental stability. But on any given week, someone has putted better than he did and wedged better and played irons better. That's why he only won 1 full field stroke play event.

I would take a bet that he would be just like GMac, cool down next year, and relinquish his no.1 spot to someone else by the end of next year.

Mysti,

Padgric was a pretty strong player, deceivingly long when he was on top of his game. Sergio is not a good example. He has 1/10 of the mental make up of a Kaymer. Saying Luke could win 3, 4 is really stretching the truth. He maybe tough, but he hasn't won much on the PGA Tour, much less majors. If you were to predict Kaymer winning 3, 4 majors, that would be a lot more reasonable.

The knock on Luke is that his very best on a Major Sundaymis always going to fall short of the very best of the field. He may get lucky and won one. But to win multiple majors, you need more than luck and mental toughness, you need to be very TALENTed as well.

i will trake that bet simba

i fully expect him to take of where he started and to contest most if not all the majors in 2012.

his lead is pretty good right know(in the rankings) and his form has only got better through the year.

as i mentioned most people dont realise the wedge player luke is.

all you have to do is look at his par 5 stats to realise what a wedge player he is.

donald is nothing like the player that gmac is though- gmac has never been a consitant player like donald, but then to gmacs credit he won a major and that can never ever be taken away from him(and although i am english i realise that a 1 time british open winner most of time shouldnt be compared with a us open winner). all the same no one would have backed GMAC to win it!, donald will be backed by thousands in next years majors its just wether he can close out

donald has proved he can maintain form that is without question- so the fact that the world no.1 is only about consitancy and maintaing form(even when driving badly as he has) is the defining reason why i will take your bet that donald will still be no.1 this time next year

Simba - Luke could absolutely win multiple majors. His physical makeup reminds me of Mark O'Meara, who notched two majors late in his career and, like Luke, was one heck of a ball striker.

simba not sure what point you mean- if donald doesnt win any majors it will be lack of a head game in the biggies not his distance- thats why i brought up those examples.

kaymer is the player that looks likely to be the new faldo- not donald- however donald is the shorter hitter like faldo- there is no reason why a player cant be a multiple winner who is a little bit shorter thats the point. its wether donald can step up- and if he can he could win a few- no doubts

Easily forgotten that Luke Donald was the world's leading money winner in 2010, as well as having a $2.5M lead in 2011.
This form is not a fluke, over $5M ahead of the next person over a 2-year period.

Reminder to Simba:
"Fact" is NOT synonymous with "speculation".

Samba is clearly on the wind up again. Anyone who knows anything about golf knows he is one of the most talented players of the past ten years.
Golf is all about your second shot and your short game, at present Donald is the worlds best in those two departments.

super_realist wrote:Samba is clearly on the wind up again. Anyone who knows anything about golf knows he is one of the most talented players of the past ten years.
Golf is all about your second shot and your short game, at present Donald is the worlds best in those two departments.

I disagree he's on the wind up. He just isn't among 'Anyone who knows anything about golf', and believes Tiger's going to make some sort of miraculous comeback and usurp Luke as no.1.

I'll take the bet on Luke still being number one in the world this time next year. He'd have to have an awful year next year to lose that status and I don't see that happening (barring injuries of course)

Davie,

Let's do it! You win, I will buy you a round at Pebble Beach. I win you buy me a round at St. Andrew. Transportation not included.

All of you only judge the game from a amateur level. At the pro level, when everybody is so very good, any difference or advantage you have over your competitors is at a premium. Ask Luke himself or any pros what they would like, the answer is always going to be that extra ten yards, and the extra club head speed.

Just now Poulter is undergoing a massive work out to gain some length. He used to be longer than Luke. Now Luke is longer than him. One of the things Luke has worked on is his length off the tee in the past few years. It has paid off for him somewhat this year at the WGC Match Play event.

Regardless, Luke will not be no.1 end of next year. And it could be a whole host of players overtaking him. Rory could in a couple of months. Kaymer is a great possibility. I also like Jason Day's chance. Before the Williams fiasco, I liked Scott's chance over taking Luke too.

Anyone wants to bet?

Perhaps a more interesting bet would be who will have a better 2012 -- Luke or Tiger? Luke will obviously start and finish the year ranked higher, but who will finish higher in the tournaments they both compete in?

I would take Tiger. But realize I also thought Sergio would have a major by now, so I've been plenty wrong before.

Davie,

I'll bet you a that Rory Mac will be No1 this time next year............

Samba, you are really testing my patience. Distance is a function of swing speed, not strength, and any golfer will tell you that accuracy is far more important than distance. Look how little the big hitters have won this year and then look who is the best player on the planet.
Donald has improved his accuracy by over 10% in 12 months and he is number one by a mile despite being right in the middle for distance.
You know nothing about golf and are clearly just trying to provoke reaction and get even more people to dislike you. A typical yank who thinks that if you make everything bigger or longer than its better. Not so.

S_R - Any top professional has already achieved a certain amount of accuracy. No other way to get to those ranks. I'm certain Luke, like ALL other professionals, is trying to hit the ball further. Swing speed comes in part (but certainly not entirely) with strength. Is it any wonder that many of the longer hitters are also larger and stronger individuals? A typical Brit who thinks because the game started on home turf they know all ...

Prior to last year Donald had pretty appalling accuracy and was also only moderate when it comes to distance.
His distance is below the tour average yet his accuracy is considerably higher, and look what happens when you are accurate!

Obviously the perfect situation would be to be long AND accurate, but there isn't a player on tour who is like that. If there was there would be miles ahead of Donald.

I'd far rather be a golfer with a physique like Donald with a reliable, smooth repeatable swing, who is accurate, decent length off the tee and a stellar short game, course management and putting, than be a one dimensional basher like Bubba Watson or Robert Garrigus.

I don't claim to know everything about golf, but what I'm saying seems pretty sensible and these bashers would do well to take a few tips from Donald if they want to succeed.

It's not how far you hit it, it's what you score and Luke has the lowest scoring average on Tour.
Would you really expect Mullet Watson or Deadbeat Garrigus to beat Donald, just because they are longer hitters?

just been checking out some stats and donald is up there in many- but what surprised me(or perhaps didnt really because i have noticed it by eye , but not many others seem to) Donald is first in pitching 100-125.

also another impressive stat, i have noticed is that over the last 5 years his score average has dropped dramtically each year.

but i think the most impressive one(we know about his putting and scrambling etc) is his final round average of 68.06!!!

"Everyone on tour swings faster than your best local club 0 handicap hackers"

ermm are you for real pal- my handicap is 8 , my 6 iron swing speed is 94 mph- thats tour avearge- actually a bit better(therefore many are slower)- i am not bigging myself up at all pal- its fact , and i know plenty others that have a faster swing speed. I dont want an argument with you- but if you want a discussion you really need to get your facts straight

Simba wrote:Shear ignornace?

Quote of the day!

Simba, I'm no more of a know it all than you are, and I've never said I know it all. We have a difference of opinion, however the facts speak for themselves. Luke Donald has proven that being accurate is more important than being super long. You can't pick anything I've said in this thread that isn't sensible.

As for never breaking 80, I've been a low handicapper since I started playing again 10 years ago and would be embarrassed to shoot 80, in fact I can't even remember the last time I shot a number that high.
I'll happily pay for you to have a round at my local. The Old Course, and I'm sure you'll just turn out to be like most other American's I've played with there, hopelessly ambitious, but no bloody good.

You'll also find that everyone on tour DOES NOT always swing faster than 0 handicap "hackers". In most cases the difference between good amateurs and pro's is not off the tee or in clubhead speed, but from 150 yards in and on the green itself.

Mysti,

Do you seriously think that your club head speed is greater than Luke's. Have you ever played with a pro before?

Sure, I can swing 115 mph on my Nike VR Driver. But I won't hit flush most of the times. That's why my safe swing is 105mph. Even when I do swing hard I don't pretend to think that my club head spead with be in the pro ranks. To generate great clubs head speed, you need A. a fast swing. B. a near perfect hit.

BTW, what's do you think is the average swing spead of the most amateurs? 90mph? Pros are 115mph. Not even close.