Slam most likely for Federer to win in 2012?

Discuss.

For me it's the Australian Open because it is historically Nadal's least good slam and Fed always seems to manage to start the year purring.

USO if he can actually win some match points! His record there is the best of any slam if you include the last couple of years when he's not even made a Wimbledon semi. Also, Rafa and Djoko will be knackered by September 2012, especially if they have to keep playing each other.

AO and USO are the most likely, I suppose.

The 6+ slam winners of the past 2 decades(since 1990s) won their last slam there: Lendl, Agassi, Becker, Edberg and Sampras.

As a matter of fact, all the 6+ slam winners won their last slam at either AO or USO, except for Borg at the FO. None of them at Wimbledon.

So last slam for Federer will be at AO or USO and for Nadal at the FO(like Borg).

For some reason none of the 6+ slam winners won their last at Wimbledon.

Like the Wimby statistic, eraldeen. This is a great game for stats and I reckon not many people knew that one before. Co-incidence or something more? Fed's Q-F exits at SW19 seem to suggest he'll not win there again.

If Nole recovers to 100%, then none. Novak plays really well both in Austalia and US, and I think he has replaced Federer in dominance there.
Possibly Wimbledon if he dedicates himself to grass prep exclusively, esp as he wants to win Olympics medal which will also be played on grass.

#Rod Laver`s last major: 1969 USO [aged 31yrs]

#Ken Rosewall`s last major: 1972 AO [aged 37yrs]

#John Newcombe`s last major: 1975 AO [aged 30yrs]

#Bjorn Borg`s last major: 1981 FO [aged 25yrs]

#Jimmy Connors`s last major: 1983 USO [aged 31yrs]

#John McEnroe`s last major: 1984 USO [aged 25yrs]

#Mats Wilander`s last major: 1988 USO [aged 24yrs]

#Ivan Lendl`s last major: 1990 AO [aged 29yrs]

#Stefan Edberg`s last major: 1992 USO [aged 26yrs]

#Boris Becker`s last major: 1996 AO [aged 28yrs]

#Pete Sampras`s last major: 2002 USO [aged 31yrs]

#Andre Agassi`s last major: 2003 AO [aged 32yrs]

It's obvious when you think about it - Wimbledon has always sat right in the middle of the season and is probably the most prestigious tournament. It should be the high point for the best players of the year in terms of freedom from injury, match fitness, and targetted general preparation.

Very few ageing greats are going to 'sneak' a win at Wimbledon in the same way as they might be able to at either end of the Slam season when savy may play a larger part against exhausted or less well-prepared opponents. As Tenez points out, that's even more so given the change of conditions during the 2000's.

I remember suggesting that Fed's best chance of a slam next year was the Aussie Open when you joined eraldeen and you dismissed it as next to impossible because Djokovic has a lockdown there. Given how Novak seems to have acquired a few injuries, it doesn't look so unlikely now that Fed could win there again.

There's the assumption that Fed will win one more slam, I think he could win possibly two, even if it does look unlikely right now. So who knows, that doesn't rule out Wimbledon if he is going to win two! Fed winning the WTF (if he does) would only seem to suggest that Fed's best chance will come on hardcourt, where 9/10 of the last slams have come for top players.

FO!

1. He can take Djoko and Murray (both typical HC specialist) on clay
2. The babolat balls
3. Won't be blown away by a freak day of a big server
4. Chances of catching a little less strong Nadal are increasing, no?

The key is Nadal, but Nadal is the key on any surface for Federer. So i'd pick the FO because of point 1/2/3. Besides: He was closer to win the FO than any other slam this year for a reason.

I think if it happens it will likely be a HC slam.

I believe he still plays his best at the USO.

If the semi and final are permanently scheduled to be played with a days rest in between then I think this will present his best opportunity in the next couple of years.

GP,

I agree that FO provides a decent opportunity but only if Nadal is taken out.

However I can only see Novak as the player to do that, and with the current rankings they cannot meet until the finals.

If Rafa drops to three in the rankings and Roger stays at four then I think Roger's chances imrove considerably everywhere especially at the French.

Interesting list eraldeen !

Age-wise, the only two wins that I feel have any major relevance in the context of today's world are those of Agassi and Sampras. But even over the last decade things have moved on a good bit

And since those romantic swansongs by Connors, Newcombe, Rosewall and Laver the physical side of the game has advanced so much that it's almost a different sport. None of us will ever see another 37 year old win a Slam - or even make a semi - that's for sure !!

Personally I'd be surprised (although not amazed) if Federer managed another Slam. But as Rafa pointed out in a recent interview, many so-called profesional pundits were confidently predicting his (Fed's) fall from the elite tier back at the start of 2009 ......

emancipator wrote:GP,

I agree that FO provides a decent opportunity but only if Nadal is taken out.

Sure, but like i said, Nadal is the key on any surface.

I reckon the HC slams are too demanding for Fed, esspecially his back

gallery play wrote:FO!

1. He can take Djoko and Murray (both typical HC specialist) on clay
2. The babolat balls
3. Won't be blown away by a freak day of a big server
4. Chances of catching a little less strong Nadal are increasing, no?

The key is Nadal, but Nadal is the key on any surface for Federer. So i'd pick the FO because of point 1/2/3. Besides: He was closer to win the FO than any other slam this year for a reason.

Strong point. He could do with Nadal dropping some more points and falling to #3. Get rafa and Nole in the same half and he'd be favourite to meet one of them in the final. If it's Djokovic, then it's game on.

We are all agreed that Nadal is the key - that's why I plump for the Aus Open, Nadal's worst slam.

I can see the argument that the French Open is, counter-intuitively, Fed's next best chance on the basis that he's less vulnerable to the rest of the field there, although it is even more necessary for Nadal to be taken out first and when you weigh up all the possibilities I think that the USO marginally has it as his 2nd best chance. I don't see him winning Wimbledon again, but I'd love to be proven wrong.

It is odd how Wimbledon has gone from being Fed's strongest slam to his weakest but many posters have commented on the reasons why Fed fell short (back issue during 2010, Fed not on top form vs Tsonga for whatever reasons).

I only really hold Fed in real contention for 3 of the 4 slams, and in the order of:

Aussie Open
USO
French Open
(Wimbledon)

A lot depends on how Djokovic recovers from his injuries but like Nadal, we haven't seen Djokovic defend many of his titles successfully (excluding clay titles for Nadal). Defending titles when the glare of the media is more intense will give us a real idea of how Djokovic copes with building on his success. It's not easy. Nadal is clearly a factor which affects Fed but with just one final appearance @ the Aussie Open, something remarkable would be required from Nadal to stop Fed there.

1 - Wimbledon
2 - FO
3 - AO
4 - USO

Roger Federer's recent record:

USO 2011 lost to Novak Djokovic in semifinal 7-6 6-4 3-6 2-6 5-7
Wim 2011 lost to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in quarterfinal 6-3 7-6 4-6 4-6 4-6
FO 2011 lost to Rafael Nadal in final 5-7 6–7 7–5 1–6
AO 2011 lost to Novak Djokovic in semifinal 6-7 5-7 4-6
USO 2010 lost to Novak Djokovic in semifinal 7-5 1-6 7-5 2-6 5-7
Wim 2010 lost to Tomáš Berdych in quarterfinal 4-6 6-3 1-6 4-6
FO 2010 lost to Robin Söderling in quarterfinal 6-3 3-6 5-7 4-6
AO 2010 beats Andy Murray in final 6-3 6-4 7-6

I don;t believe in considering past results to predict future ones..unless you have a great player surfing an invicibilty wave. Fed USO, Wimby, Nadal's FO but even those can be broken.

According to past results Federer was never going to be winning Paris...yet he just did.

With teh conds in the FO as they are (with those new balls) I think it becomes a good opportunity for Fed whereas the slow balls on grass really help Nadal and to a lesser extend Djoko.

This is a tricky one. I would have to plump for the following:

1) French Open
2) US Open
3) Wimbledon
4) Australian Open

I think the French being as quick as it was brought the best tennis out of Federer this year.

I think the Australian Open will be dominated by Djokovic and hopefully Murray.

Wimbledon is so slow now, Nadal and Djokovic will lap it up.

The US Open is his unless he runs into Djokovic.

Tenez wrote:... According to past results Federer was never going to be winning Paris...yet he just did. ...

The past results indicated that if Federer didn't have to face Rafael Nadal he would win, and that was precisely what happened.

Nore Staat wrote:

Tenez wrote:... According to past results Federer was never going to be winning Paris...yet he just did. ...

The past results indicated that if Federer didn't have to face Rafael Nadal he would win, and that was precisely what happened.

I was talking about Paris not Boulogne. As far I as I know Nadal never stopped Federer in Paris.

I wonder whether Del Potro will make an impact in the slams next year? Will he make a full return to fitness or has the game moved on...

Nore Staat wrote:I wonder whether Del Potro will make an impact in the slams next year? Will he make a full return to fitness or has the game moved on...

Interesting question NS. Lot's of pundits thought the US Open would be back to near best. I just think he looks so cautious on the BH side. Doesn't have the pace it did 2 years ago. I feel for him. I would hate for such an injury to hamper a young man's career.

Nore Staat's results list tells us that Fed has now gone 7 Slams since his last triumph, the AO

Interestingly, Sampras went 8 Slams between his penultimate win (Wim 2000) and his very last, number 14 (USO 2002)

But during this barren spell Fed has still been making it to QF's - or better - every time. And the lowest player to take him out was Tsonga when ranked 19.

By contrast, Pete was going out regularly in Slams before week 2 in the run-up to that USO swansong, and to players ranked as low as 54, 76, 69 and even 145..... who could forget the celebrated Georges Bastl (plus a loss to another Swiss in the shape of a 15th-ranked R. Federer ....)

So, still a fair prospect of Fed sneaking another Slam I guess

legendkillar wrote:This is a tricky one. I would have to plump for the following:

1) French Open
2) US Open
3) Wimbledon
4) Australian Open

I think the French being as quick as it was brought the best tennis out of Federer this year.

I think the Australian Open will be dominated by Djokovic and hopefully Murray.

Wimbledon is so slow now, Nadal and Djokovic will lap it up.

The US Open is his unless he runs into Djokovic.

I agree about the French Open, but I can't see him beating Nadal there unless there is a close to tectonic shift between them.

Fed is always the man to beat at the AO, the key are that knows how to get himself into excellent shape for it and how to win it. It's the only slam of which you can say that since 2004 nobody else has won it without beating Federer. I agree that Djoko is likely to be the favourite, and Murray has a good chance. I agree that Fed won't be the favourite at the start of any slam, but at Australia more than any other slam I believe he will be the man they have to beat to have to win. All the others have misjudged their preparation for Australia at different times - not Federer.

To me, Federer's 2010 and 2011 slam results don't do him much justice. All his losses were very close, including AO 11 but always fell on the wrong side of rare TBs or game points he lost. Considering he has teh best TBs records in history those played in those slam matches have gone the wrong way.

I am hoping an even older Federer can make up for some of those losses next year.

I think the only two players who are currently favorite to beat Federer in a grand slam tournament are Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. I think Federer's game matches up better to Djokovic game than Rafael Nadal - he can't cope with Nadal's high bouncing balls to his backhand on most courts. All it takes is for either Nadal or Djokovic to be carrying a moderate injury or for some reason to be down on energy for Federer to have a good chance.