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HEC Week 3 Who will be the winners and losers then...?

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Week 3 HEC who will win ?

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Post by maestegmafia Mon 21 Nov 2011, 11:04 am

First topic message reminder :

I think gauging what posters have written on these boards in response that there is an average of about 2/3rds correct guess work. Some may have more, others lamentably guessed less so far, but it is a tight competition with plenty of surprises.

So week Three first of the double header weekends

Pool 1
Castres v Northampton, Saturday, 13:30
Scarlets v Munster, Saturday, 15:40

Pool 2
Cardiff Blues v Edinburgh, Friday, 20:00
Racing Metro 92 v London Irish, Saturday, 15:40

Pool 3
Glasgow v Montpellier, Sunday, 12:45
Bath v Leinster, Sunday, 12:45

Pool 4
Ulster v Aironi, Friday 19:30
Clermont Auvergne v Leicester, Sunday, 15:00

Pool 5
Saracens v Ospreys, Saturday, 18:00
Treviso v Biarritz, Saturday, 13:30

Pool 6
Connacht v Gloucester, Saturday, 13:30
Harlequins v Toulouse, Friday, 20:00

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Post by propdavid_london Tue 22 Nov 2011, 11:49 am

Do you guys think that Quins can beat Toulouse?
There are a lot of people that are saying yes - but that French pack is huge. I rather think that we will be pinged off the pitch!

Quins are 12 from 12 at the moment, Newcastle and Wasps to play in the prem first. Then the back-2-back with Toulouse.

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Post by beshocked Tue 22 Nov 2011, 11:57 am

Quins have the momentum. Yes I think they can beat Toulouse.

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Post by red_stag Tue 22 Nov 2011, 11:59 am

beshocked wrote:Quins have the momentum. Yes I think they can beat Toulouse.

Agree
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Post by Time For Trumpton Tue 22 Nov 2011, 12:00 pm

I think they could.

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Post by Poorfour Tue 22 Nov 2011, 12:34 pm

So far Toulouse have beaten Glaws at home and Connacht away. Quins have beaten Connacht at home and Glaws at Kingsholm. Toulouse's combination of games was marginally easier, and the points difference each team has racked up has been very similar.

So on paper, they're very close. The Toulouse pack is a threat, but Quins have shown so far this season that they are happy to play without possession and not leak points (at one point, Gloucester had 99% possession for 10 minutes and achieved nothing with it), that they can open up chances with limited time on the ball, and (most importantly) that when they get a chance they can convert it ruthlessly.

If any team has the playing style to nullify Toulouse's advantages, it's Quins. But against that you have to stack Toulouse's huge squad depth and vast experience in the competition, and a four day turnaround for Quins after a game away to Wasps.

They can do it. Don't know whether they will, but I am looking forward to finding out.
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Post by whocares Tue 22 Nov 2011, 1:32 pm

Toulouse current weakness is 2nd row with first choices Boukerou, Albacete and Millo-Chluski being injured at the moment. the 1st 2 might be back but maybe not at 100% - without those 3, their pack would really lack fire power as the other locks left Maestri and Lamboley are not the same class.

as for the general form, they have been a bit average so far grinding victories more than anything but its clearly work in progress.

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Post by Comfort Tue 22 Nov 2011, 3:30 pm

beshocked, you may have 2 eyes, but you certainly only use the black and red one when talking about anything that has even the most slight of relations to saracens!!! Erm




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Post by maestegmafia Tue 22 Nov 2011, 8:36 pm

Poorfour wrote:So far Toulouse have beaten Glaws at home and Connacht away. Quins have beaten Connacht at home and Glaws at Kingsholm. Toulouse's combination of games was marginally easier, and the points difference each team has racked up has been very similar.

So on paper, they're very close. The Toulouse pack is a threat, but Quins have shown so far this season that they are happy to play without possession and not leak points (at one point, Gloucester had 99% possession for 10 minutes and achieved nothing with it), that they can open up chances with limited time on the ball, and (most importantly) that when they get a chance they can convert it ruthlessly.

If any team has the playing style to nullify Toulouse's advantages, it's Quins. But against that you have to stack Toulouse's huge squad depth and vast experience in the competition, and a four day turnaround for Quins after a game away to Wasps.

They can do it. Don't know whether they will, but I am looking forward to finding out.

Didnt Toulouse thrash Connacht in Ireland while Connacht nearly beat Quins at the stoop, ?

Connacht 10 - 36 (3 - 22) Toulouse

Harlequins 25 - 17 (19 - 10) Connacht

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Post by Poorfour Tue 22 Nov 2011, 9:29 pm

maestegmafia wrote:
Poorfour wrote:So far Toulouse have beaten Glaws at home and Connacht away. Quins have beaten Connacht at home and Glaws at Kingsholm. Toulouse's combination of games was marginally easier, and the points difference each team has racked up has been very similar.

So on paper, they're very close. The Toulouse pack is a threat, but Quins have shown so far this season that they are happy to play without possession and not leak points (at one point, Gloucester had 99% possession for 10 minutes and achieved nothing with it), that they can open up chances with limited time on the ball, and (most importantly) that when they get a chance they can convert it ruthlessly.

If any team has the playing style to nullify Toulouse's advantages, it's Quins. But against that you have to stack Toulouse's huge squad depth and vast experience in the competition, and a four day turnaround for Quins after a game away to Wasps.

They can do it. Don't know whether they will, but I am looking forward to finding out.

Didnt Toulouse thrash Connacht in Ireland while Connacht nearly beat Quins at the stoop, ?

Connacht 10 - 36 (3 - 22) Toulouse

Harlequins 25 - 17 (19 - 10) Connacht

Didn't Toulouse nearly lose to Gloucester at home while Quins destroyed Gloucester at Kingsholm?

Both teams have had one close-ish home win and a decent away victory. Toulouse hav scored one more try (but no TB), and are one or two points up in points difference. In Heineken terms, there's nothing between them.

I was at the Quins-Connacht game. It was closer than Quins fans would have expected, but for anyone who has followed Quins' progress in 2011 it never felt remotely like Connacht would win. Every time the visitors scored, Quins just marched down the field and scored back. Given the way the game was reffed, it was a relatively comfortable margin of victory.

Gloucester got much, much closer to upsetting Toulouse in France.
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Post by maestegmafia Tue 22 Nov 2011, 9:56 pm

Aye, Gloucester did well, I see your angle..! But something still says Toulouse over Harlequins to me despite quins being in their best form for years.

Not saying that they are certs, I have seen Scarlets and Blues beat them at Stade Ernest-Wallon before. But i have seen far far more teams go there and lose. I also dont think Quins have the ability to get the results they currently are all season.

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Post by Poorfour Tue 22 Nov 2011, 10:23 pm

maestegmafia wrote:Aye, Gloucester did well, I see your angle..! But something still says Toulouse over Harlequins to me despite quins being in their best form for years.

Not saying that they are certs, I have seen Scarlets and Blues beat them at Stade Ernest-Wallon before. But i have seen far far more teams go there and lose. I also dont think Quins have the ability to get the results they currently are all season.

But Toulouse have to come to the Stoop first, and I think Quins will have the edge at home.

Of course Quins won't win every game this season (though a guy can dream, can't he?) - but so far they have won a number of games they would have lost last year, while carrying a pretty heavy injury list. We haven't started a game with a full first XV on the pitch yet.
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Post by maestegmafia Tue 22 Nov 2011, 10:30 pm

Good luck to them... Stranger things have happened, and Quins are in great form.

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Post by flyhalffactory Wed 23 Nov 2011, 4:28 am

I agree with beshocked that the competition is getting closer and there is usually not much in the games at the moment, and regarding the Scarlets over the last 3 seasons they have been a model of inconsistency Shocked , winning home and away against Lon Irish, then getting well beaten & trounced by Leinster at home, however they are building from within, getting more experience whilst bringing some superb youngsters through, they are getting closer to that consistently good side they aspire to.

Taking into account the parity amongst the sides this season, there are three really important factors this season that could swing the game

1. The coach
2. The subs bench / strength in depth
3. The Home support

We are are fairly happy with 2 out of 3 of the above, altho Michael Bradley is very much a work-in-progress and the jury is still out there, I would love to say we will beat the Blues but I will kinda be realistic and be reasonably happy with a LBP!

My shout for R3

Castres v Northampton
Scarlets v Munster
Cardiff v Edinburgh
Racing Metro 92 v London Irish
Glasgow v Montpellier
Bath v Leinster
Ulster v Aironi
Clermont Auvergne v Leicester
Saracens v Ospreys
Treviso v Biarritz
Connacht v Gloucester
Harlequins v Toulouse


Last edited by flyhalffactory on Wed 23 Nov 2011, 10:59 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by George Carlin Wed 23 Nov 2011, 6:49 am

Some barnburners coming up.

Surprised that more isn't being made of Quins/Toulouse - it will be ferocious.

This is the round where we find out if:

1. Northampton really are circling the drain.

2. Edinburgh really have made progress or are just a flash in the pan this HC season (again).

3. Leinster have now properly got into their swing and their fans can start demanding a Robocop win this season.

4. Ospreys pack really are up to it.

5. Leicester can get back into some form.

6. Scarlets are able to get any kind of consistency.
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Post by maestegmafia Wed 23 Nov 2011, 10:26 am

GC

You are right about Quins vs Toulouse, and that pool is also looking very close in the vote, could go either way.

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Post by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler Wed 23 Nov 2011, 10:54 am

Pool 1
Castres v Northampton, Saturday, 13:30
Scarlets v Munster, Saturday, 15:40

Pool 2
Cardiff Blues v Edinburgh, Friday, 20:00
Racing Metro 92 v London Irish, Saturday, 15:40

Pool 3
Glasgow v Montpellier, Sunday, 12:45
Bath v Leinster, Sunday, 12:45

Pool 4
Ulster v Aironi, Friday 19:30
Clermont Auvergne v Leicester, Sunday, 15:00

Pool 5
Saracens v Ospreys, Saturday, 18:00
Treviso v Biarritz, Saturday, 13:30

Pool 6
Connacht v Gloucester, Saturday, 13:30
Harlequins v Toulouse, Friday, 20:00



Quins Tolouse is the pick of the fixtures there.

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Post by Morgannwg Wed 23 Nov 2011, 2:06 pm

fhf, you must be feeling a bit under the weather as you have Scarlets down to lose! Unlike you.

Castres v Northampton - Castres
Scarlets v Munster - Scarlets
Cardiff Blues v Edinburgh - Blues
Racing Metro 92 v London Irish - London Irish
Glasgow v Montpellier - Glasgow
Bath v Leinster - Leinster
Ulster v Aironi - Ulster
Clermont Auvergne v Leicester - Clermont
Saracens v Ospreys - Saracens
Treviso v Biarritz - Treviso
Connacht v Gloucester - Connacht
Harlequins v Toulouse - Harlequins.
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Post by Guest Wed 23 Nov 2011, 2:11 pm

Castres v Northampton
Scarlets v Munster
Cardiff Blues v Edinburgh
Racing Metro 92 v London Irish
Glasgow v Montpellier
Bath v Leinster
Ulster v Aironi
Clermont Auvergne v Leicester
Saracens v Ospreys
Treviso v Biarritz
Connacht v Gloucester
Harlequins v Toulouse

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Post by G Wed 23 Nov 2011, 2:19 pm

Bath v Leinster

Whistle

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Post by flyhalffactory Wed 23 Nov 2011, 2:29 pm

SafeAsMilk wrote:Castres v Northampton
Scarlets v Munster
Cardiff Blues v Edinburgh
Racing Metro 92 v London Irish
Glasgow v Montpellier
Bath v Leinster
Ulster v Aironi
Clermont Auvergne v Leicester
Saracens v Ospreys
Treviso v Biarritz
Connacht v Gloucester
Harlequins v Toulouse

SourCream
You have seemed to have gone for every English team to win! is there are science here? ............... in particularly Bath (who struggled to beat Montpellier at home 16-13) against Leinster who had such a good win on the weekend against a form Glasgow team, and also Glaws (who were hammered at home by the Quins) away win against a strong Connacht who are formidable at home.

Whats you view on these two teams winning with Leinster so strong and Bath & Glaws performing so poorly................ so you still think they will win?
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Post by beshocked Wed 23 Nov 2011, 2:49 pm

flyhalffactory to be fair to Safemilk I do think Gloucester will win. Are Connacht really that good?

I think he is being especially optimistic about Leicester!

I see Saints,London Irish,Leicester and Bath losing.

IMO the English teams that will win are Saracens,Quins and Gloucester.

Surprised that so many people are backing Saracens. I didn't think we were as heavy favourites as the voting seems to show. Any particular reasons? Not that I complaining! Just interesting to get some points of view.

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Post by formerly known as Sam Wed 23 Nov 2011, 2:52 pm

If Tigers won at Clermont I'd be amazed and would be straight down the bookies to put a fiver on us to win the entire thing.

I don't see what Gloucester have to fear against Connact. I would think Saints have a decent chance at sneaking a win away at Castres if they can recapture some form following the Scarlets debacle.

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Post by asoreleftshoulder Wed 23 Nov 2011, 2:56 pm

beshocked wrote:
Surprised that so many people are backing Saracens. I didn't think we were as heavy favourites as the voting seems to show. Any particular reasons? Not that I complaining! Just interesting to get some points of view.

I went for Sarries for the same reason I went against them last week.Home advantage is huge,Leinster only squeaked past you last season in England so I know how strong you can be.
Ospreys are no mugs and I wouldn't be shocked if they won but I think Sarries should be strong favourites.

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Post by XR Wed 23 Nov 2011, 3:15 pm

Saints would be a good bet to beat Castres away, they did it last year in the group stages.

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Post by thebandwagonsociety Wed 23 Nov 2011, 4:06 pm

These games might settle down a little bit. Possibly Saints - Gloucester - Montpelier being the only away wins of the round. Mind you, I wouldn't put my own money behind many results for this coming round.

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Post by red_stag Wed 23 Nov 2011, 4:08 pm

Fly,

I also think Bath and Harlequins will win though I accept that they aren't favourites.
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Post by yappysnap Wed 23 Nov 2011, 4:36 pm

Think we'll lose against Toulouse.

That Wasps match before could be our undoing what with the short turn around, against a monster pack like Toulouse you'd want your first team rested and fully firing and I just can't see that, at least a few of the first choicers will play especially if we beat Falcons and I think the French will come along just in time to take advantage of fatigue.

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Post by Morgannwg Wed 23 Nov 2011, 5:07 pm

beshocked wrote:
Surprised that so many people are backing Saracens. I didn't think we were as heavy favourites as the voting seems to show. Any particular reasons? Not that I complaining! Just interesting to get some points of view.

I'm suprised that you are suprised, don't you have Sarries down to win the competition? The reason that they have the favourites tag is probably down to Ospreys struggling to score tries (think they might be last on the try count in this pool thus far), they have been all season because Biggar just keeps kicking the thing. Oh and Saracens are good at home. If Adam Jones is out I expect Jarvis to step up to the challenge. The Ospreys are blessed in some respects (the forwards, accurate goal kicker).
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Post by flyhalffactory Wed 23 Nov 2011, 5:15 pm

red_stag wrote:Fly,

I also think Bath and Harlequins will win though I accept that they aren't favourites.

Beshocked / red_stag

Hey guys, evening to you

Re: Connacht form, you can see that although they have lost more than won, apart from Toulouse they haven't been trounced by anyone
Connacht 10-36 Toulouse
Harlequins 25-17 Connacht
Ulster 22-3 Connacht
Connacht 20-26 Cardiff Blues
Leinster 30-20 Connacht
Ospreys 26-21 Connacht
Connacht 17-13 NG Dragons
Edinburgh 19-14 Connacht

Saying that I didn't realise how well Glaws are doing this season, and its going to be a tight affair I'll still go with the home advantage

ps Stag I have gone for quins as well, however I just can't Bath living with a Leinster side in such a rich vein of form.

Should be interesting Hug
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Post by maestegmafia Wed 07 Dec 2011, 11:37 am

About time this thread moved up the board...

So any new thoughts kids???

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Post by maestegmafia Wed 07 Dec 2011, 1:13 pm

Pool 1

Scarlets 5% [ 24 ]
Munster 4% [ 20 ]
Northampton Saints 4% [ 18 ]
Castres 3% [ 17 ]

Looking pretty even there. Scarlets play Munster.


Pool 2

Racing Métro 6% [ 29 ]
Cardiff Blues 6% [ 28 ]
London Irish 1% [ 6 ]
Edinburgh 2% [ 12 ]

Blues and Racing looking favourites

Pool 3

Leinster 7% [ 34 ]
Montpellier 4% [ 20 ]
Glasgow Warriors 3% [ 14 ]
Bath 2% [ 9 ]

Leinster and Montpellier look good bets


Pool 4

Ulster 7% [ 35 ]
Clermont 5% [ 26 ]
Leicester Tigers 2% [ 12 ]
Aironi 0% [ 1 ]

Ulster and Clermont looking good for this weekend

Pool 5

Saracens 6% [ 28 ]
Biarritz 5% [ 23 ]
Benetton Treviso 2% [ 12 ]
Ospreys 1% [ 7 ]

Saracens and Biarritz are stern leaders

Pool 6

Toulouse 4% [ 18 ]
Harlequins 4% [ 19 ]
Gloucester 4% [ 20 ]
Connacht 3% [ 16 ]

Very even group




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Post by Smirnoffpriest Wed 07 Dec 2011, 1:39 pm

Suprised (and pleased) so many people are backing the Scarlets to win - I'm hoping for a very good game and can't wait to go down to Heart and Soul country! (I'm not as confident as some people on here though)

Interesting that PSW had most English teams down to loose except for in the last pool. I think there's going to be a lot of good games this week and not many walk overs

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Post by maestegmafia Wed 07 Dec 2011, 1:59 pm

This is a truly nail biting part of the tournament... Win or lose stuff, realistically most groups could be half decided this weekend and confirmed next, with only the also rans needing results in the last rounds after Xmas.

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Post by Smirnoffpriest Wed 07 Dec 2011, 2:01 pm

maestegmafia wrote:This is a truly nail biting part of the tournament... Win or lose stuff, realistically most groups could be half decided this weekend and confirmed next, with only the also rans needing results in the last rounds after Xmas.

So your saying that when the Scarlets beat Munster home and way we can basically take a holiday until the QF! Yahoo

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Post by maestegmafia Wed 07 Dec 2011, 2:30 pm

I am not saying when, I am saying if.

But if it is any consolation the Ospreys non first team has already done Munster home and away this season. Last match was a munster first fifteen too...!

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Post by Metal Tiger Wed 07 Dec 2011, 3:28 pm

Pool 1
Castres v Northampton = Saints by -7
Scarlets v Munster = Scarlets by 7+

Pool 2
Cardiff Blues v Edinburgh = Edinburgh by -7
Racing Metro 92 v London Irish = Racing Metro by 7+

Pool 3
Glasgow v Montpellier = Glasgow by -7
Bath v Leinster = Leinster by 7+

Pool 4
Ulster v Aironi = Ulstrer by 7+
Clermont Auvergne v Leicester = Leicester by 7+

Pool 5
Saracens v Ospreys = Saracens by -7
Treviso v Biarritz = Biarritz by 7+

Pool 6
Connacht v Gloucester = Glocester by -7
Harlequins v Toulouse = Harlequins by 7+
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Post by Smirnoffpriest Wed 07 Dec 2011, 3:50 pm

Some interesting calls Metal Tiger - I see you've gone for Edinburgh and I can see why as they've been playing well and the Blues are playing really poorly - but I still think the Blues are going to win - most of these games could go either way though.

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Post by maestegmafia Wed 07 Dec 2011, 3:58 pm

Pool 1
Castres v Northampton = Castres by +7
Scarlets v Munster = Scarlets by -7

Pool 2
Cardiff Blues v Edinburgh = Cardiff by -7
Racing Metro 92 v London Irish = Racing Metro by 7+

Pool 3
Glasgow v Montpellier = Montpellier by +7
Bath v Leinster = Leinster by +7

Pool 4
Ulster v Aironi = Ulster by +7
Clermont Auvergne v Leicester = Clermont by 7

Pool 5
Saracens v Ospreys = Ospreys by +7
Treviso v Biarritz = Treviso by -7

Pool 6
Connacht v Gloucester = Connacht by -7
Harlequins v Toulouse = Toulouse by -7

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Post by Metal Tiger Thu 08 Dec 2011, 11:04 am

maestegmafia wrote:Pool 1
Castres v Northampton = Castres by +7
Scarlets v Munster = Scarlets by -7

Pool 2
Cardiff Blues v Edinburgh = Cardiff by -7
Racing Metro 92 v London Irish = Racing Metro by 7+

Pool 3
Glasgow v Montpellier = Montpellier by +7
Bath v Leinster = Leinster by +7

Pool 4
Ulster v Aironi = Ulster by +7
Clermont Auvergne v Leicester = Clermont by 7

Pool 5
Saracens v Ospreys = Ospreys by +7
Treviso v Biarritz = Treviso by -7

Pool 6
Connacht v Gloucester = Connacht by -7
Harlequins v Toulouse = Toulouse by -7

Maestig...

You see this is the kind of subtle post that you like to do that fires up certain posters on here... then you sit back crying innocent and that you are a serious poster. You've put every Welsh team as a winner and every English team as a loss.

The Blues are missing a few players with injury but they do have their internationals back. On the head to head record you would have to back Cardiff for this fixture but Edinburgh are running high at the moment with some great performances and are putting out a very strong team for this. I really think Edinburgh are going to sneak this one.

Saracens are chasing top spot, in great form, not missing any players and at home. Ospreys will be crushed by Sarries defence and cough up penalties all day long which Farrel will happily pop over the cross bar.

Tigers will of course DOMINATE (sorry for the trademark infringement Haskell... don't sue!) and beat Clermont... but you would expect me to say that though Very Happy

Connaught v Gloucester.... both sides are just awful, simply awful at the moment. But I think Glaws are slightly less awful. Win by -7

However, I agree, Bath are in for a good old humping from Leinster and London Irish are looking to get the same from Metro.

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Post by PenfroPete Thu 08 Dec 2011, 11:08 am

Depends if the games go ahead - certainly this mornings flights from Ireland are severely disrupted Yikes
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Post by beshocked Thu 08 Dec 2011, 11:11 am

Wow maestegmafia you actually think you will beat Saracens by +7? Is that your head or your heart?

I would be interested to see why.

You are away from home against the English champions who don't lose many games.

Are Ospreys really that good?

What's that based on? The games against Biarritz and Saints?

Certainly not based on Ospreys vs Treviso!

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Post by maestegmafia Thu 08 Dec 2011, 1:18 pm

Metal Tiger wrote:
Maestig...

You see this is the kind of subtle post that you like to do that fires up certain posters on here... then you sit back crying innocent and that you are a serious poster. You've put every Welsh team as a winner and every English team as a loss.


MT little unfair comment by you there mate, I will explain my reasoning for you...!

I think from a Welsh perspective all our teams are doing well at the moment in Europe. Though the Blues are very likely to get beaten to be fair, the Gunners are an awesome team right now. I am encouraged by the talk coming from the Blues fans and players this week on how much of a difference returning Welsh players will make. Thats going to be a very close game. I call home advantage and get a narrow win this week but expect them to get a pasting in Edinburgh next weekend.

Scarlets should beat Munster, they are in great form and at home. Munsters first team lost to the Ospreys second string last weekend. As we all know from History that Munster are Munster and they can win anywhere and have proved that over the years. This is still very much a typical Munster team this year. But they are now missing a first choice back three of try scorers Howlett, Keith Earls, Felix Jones, also missing David Wallace, Jerry Flannery, and a few of their squad players too.

Ospreys, see above, they are in very good form. The dirt trackers are playing well boosting the whole squad and they have some good players coming back, Adam Jones for example, though even if he is missing Jarvis is playing great rugby as is Duncan Jones. Saracens are not in great form, they looked vulnerable all over the field against Saints and took a pasting. Offered no answers, even when Saints had subbed out their bench. Sarries also did nothing in Biarritz, I watched the game, I read the posts on here mainly from Beshocked, who was at the game and admitted to being disappointed. I listened to the pundits verdicts on Sky and Radio five who were slating Saracens performance as inept. All thought Saracens came up against a better team in Biarritz, they are under performing for last years English National Champs. Looking at their results last few weeks you would have to agree that although they may currently be second in the Jeff that they are not the second best team in that league.

Regarding the English sides. They are under performing considering the credit their fans and Sky Sports English rugby pundits give them. Only Leicester and Harlequins are getting any decent results. But both Tigers and Quins are up against the best in their groups this weekend, both those teams Toulouse and Clermont are in awesome form at the moment. Not sure if you guys watch the coverage of the TOP 14 but these are the two best rugby teams in Europe. Even with Pointrenaud and Steenkampf injured Toulouse have too good a squad to be dramatically effected. toulouse whacked Toulon by 33 points last weekend.

Here is a link for you to catch up on the TOP14 if you havent.

http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,9818_7350390,00.html

With regards to the other sides, London Irish have shown little to prove they are going to do anything in Paris, Northampton are volatile I'll give them that, do seem to be getting things together over the last two weekends but still conceded 30 points to the Tigers last week. With so many of their best players like Ashton, Wilson, Clarke and Dowson all definitely out either injured or banned, Saints will struggle in Castres. Plus the fact that Saints are all but out of the HEC anyway, I cant see them trying too hard Castres.

Bath vs Leinster and Gloucester vs Connacht will be much closer games than everyone thinks. But Leinster are not loosing anything right now, Bath are not good enough to win this. Connacht are a good team and you have to go with the home team there, I would be surprised if Gloucester drew or better.


Hope that explains my thinking for you. Sorry it puts a downer on English rugby, but as you know this isn't a great season for English teams in Europe, bar Quins and Tigers. If they can get one win out of this rounds two games then they should make the quarters.


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Post by PenfroPete Thu 08 Dec 2011, 1:32 pm

Edinburgh were due to fly this afternnon but are now on a coach - not good preparation for tomorrow nights fixture
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Post by maestegmafia Thu 08 Dec 2011, 1:37 pm

PenfroPete wrote:Edinburgh were due to fly this afternnon but are now on a coach - not good preparation for tomorrow nights fixture
Just saw the weather, not a great weekend for yachting in Largs...!

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Post by Thomond Thu 08 Dec 2011, 1:38 pm

J Murphy (S Zebo 70th min); D Howlett, D Barnes, L Mafi, D Hurley (S Deasy 74th min); I Keatley, D Williams (P Stringer 66th min); W du Preez (M Horan 61st min), D Fogarty, S Archer (BJ Botha 53rd min); B Holland (I Nagle 61st min), M O'Driscoll; D O'Callaghan, N Ronan (T O'Donnell temp), P O'Mahony capt.


Maesteg that is the team from when Munstyer played the Os. There are about 5/6 first choice players in that team.

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Post by Metal Tiger Thu 08 Dec 2011, 1:57 pm

Maesteg,

I accept your reasoning behind your decisions but this is the wonderful thing about these forums, everyone has their own opinions.

Sarries have disappointed but their pasting by Saints was away, they are a very different animal at home.

Saints blow hot & cold and no doubt Ashton is a loss for them.

The game I'm most interested in (after Tigers of course) is the Cardiff v Edinburgh clash. If all the good vibes floating around about them at the moment are to be believed this should be a thumping good game.
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Post by maestegmafia Thu 08 Dec 2011, 2:01 pm

O'Gara (51 mins), POC (46 mins) Coughlan (61 mins) were on quite early on too. I think they are first choice?

Team vs Castres
Murphy, Howlett, Barnes, Mafi, D Hurley, O'Gara, Murray, du Preez, Varley, Botha, D. Ryan, O'Connell, O'Mahony, Ronan, Coughlan.

Team vs Ospreys
Murphy, Howlett, Barnes, Mafi, Hurley, Keatley, Williams, du Preez, Fogarty, Archer, Holland, O'Driscoll; O'Callaghan, Ronan, O'Mahony capt.

Back line the same bar Halfbacks, Keatley no idiot. Pretty much the first team pack were all on by the end of the match.

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Post by beshocked Thu 08 Dec 2011, 2:07 pm

Maestegmafia writing us off is hilarious! Ospreys are in great form yet Saracens are in poor form despiting having a similar win/loss record?

If we are playing badly you don't want us to play well at Wembley!

Saracens are top of their HC pool. 2nd in the league with a 9 point buffer. You make it sound as if we got smashed by Biarritz and Treviso.

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Post by maestegmafia Thu 08 Dec 2011, 2:33 pm

Metal Tiger wrote:
Sarries have disappointed but their pasting by Saints was away, they are a very different animal at home.

Watching them play London Irish last week I thought that both sides were un convincing to be honest. Sarries relied on Farrell's boot to put them in position and kick goals. Two previous matches they lost. Before that they put in a good display against Treviso who rarely play well on the road, they also had some good form in the Jeff. Despite Sarries losing the same amount of players to the RWC as three or four teams in the Jeff, it is noticeable that teams like Tigers and Saints are performing considerably better now their RWC players have returned.


Metal Tiger wrote:Saints blow hot & cold and no doubt Ashton is a loss for them.
I think Dowson, Clarke and Wilson will be an even bigger loss. Saints have a tough big rough front five but that backrow is what makes things happen for them.

Metal Tiger wrote:The game I'm most interested in (after Tigers of course) is the Cardiff v Edinburgh clash. If all the good vibes floating around about them at the moment are to be believed this should be a thumping good game.

It should be a cracker in Cardiff, can't underestimate how good that Gunners team is. Will be a nail biter. Unless Blues get a moral boosting win, I fear they will come unstuck in the return away fixture.


beshocked wrote:Maestegmafia writing us off is hilarious! Ospreys are in great form yet Saracens are in poor form despiting having a similar win/loss record?
I am not writing Saracens off, but i dont think they are in exceptional form. As you say they have a similar win/loss/draw to the Ospreys, O's having Drawn one when Sarries lost one more. Recent form as i said above is not good.

beshocked wrote:If we are playing badly you don't want us to play well at Wembley!
I know I dont...! Although i would like to see a good game...

beshocked wrote:Saracens are top of their HC pool. 2nd in the league with a 9 point buffer. You make it sound as if we got smashed by Biarritz and Treviso.

Saracens are joint top of the pool equal on 6 points with the Ospreys. This weekend and next will likely see Biarritz go top before the final round, they should get two wins. If Ospreys win on Saturday then we will be top of the pool and have Sarries and Treviso at home to win the pool meaning that the trip to Biarritz might not make a difference, as i presume you would agree that Sarries should be able to beat Biarritz at home in London.

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Post by maestegmafia Thu 08 Dec 2011, 2:43 pm

Not sure if you lads had noticed but of the top seven teams in the Rabo league only one team has lost a game. That was Treviso. The quality of this league has improved year on year. It is showing in the HEC.

Hopefully it still will be after the weekend.

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