Heineken Cup midway round up and star gazing.

So we are now at the midway stage of this years Heineken Cup pool stage, and I thought it would be a good time to have a look at how the pools stand, going into part two of the double headers.

Pool One

Munster 12 pts, Scarlets 10 pts, Castres Olympique 6 pts, Northampton Saints 3 pts.

Having won at Parc y Scarlet on Saturday, Munster are now firmly in control of Pool One and will be confident of making the quarter finals this time around. Scarlets and Saints (moreso Saints) I think will be disappointed with their positions. The Scarlets having won their first two, will feel that they let an opportunity pass at the weekend to take firm control of the pool, but will go to Thomond determined to make amends. Castres could sneak up on them however, as they may well beat a Saints side with nothing to play for but pride, and if Munster rumble on at home, the Scarlets could find themselves dropping from 1st to 3rd in the space of a week.

Ozzy's tip for the top: Has to be Munster, with a total of 23 points


Pool Two

Cardiff Blues 12 pts, Edinburgh 9 pts, London Irish 7 pts, Racing Metro 3 pts.

The Blues are now in the box seat in pool, and given their recent record against Edinburgh you have to suspect that they wll make it 4 wins from 4 on Friday night. If Irish can also repeat their performance of this weekend at home agisnt Metro, then it could well all come down to bonus points in this pool, and will make the R% clash between Irish and the Blues absolutely crucial. Metro are definitely out now, and I suspect won't bother too much and could lose all six, so the key team this week for keeping this pool interesting is Edinburgh. If they can buck the recent trend and beat the Blues, then this pool will go to the wire, with any one fo three capable of winning it.

Ozzy's tip for the top: The heart wants to say Irish, but the head is saying Cardiff Blues, with 22 points on the board.


Pool Three

Leinster 11 pts, Glasgow Warriors 8 pts, Bath Rugby 6 pts, Montpellier 4 pts.

Having played 2 away games already, with their only remaining away fixture at Glasgow, you have to suspect that Leinster have got this pool pretty much sewn up now. Bath and possibly Montpellier will be disappointed with where they sit, although Montpellier have 2 home games to come, and I can see them beating both Bath and Glasgow at Stade Yves du Manoir. For Leinster it is now about points accumulation and securing a hoem quarter, whislt the other 3 scrap it out for a shot at glory in the Amlin Challenge Cup.

Ozzy's tip for the top: It's current champions Leinster all the way in this pool, with them racking up 25 points in the process.


Pool Four

ASM Clermont Auvergne 10 pts, Ulster Rugby 9 pts, Leicester Tigers 8 pts, Aironi Rugby 4 pts.

With 2 points seperating 3 teams, this is still anybodies pool, and ultimately is likely to come down to bonus points to decide it. ASM, with 2 of those have put themselves in the driving seat, and interestingly of the 3 bonus points that have been gained, only the French side have picked one up on the road, in a narrow defeat at Ravenhill. If they can do the same at Welford Road this weekend, then you have to fancy them strongly to hold off two other very good sides. For Ulster this week 5 points is a must in Italy, anything less and it will be a tough ask for them to shift two of the biggest names in Europe.

Ozzy's tip for the top: This will be tight, but for me ASM Clermont Auvergne will edge out the other two with 21 points in the final count up.


Pool Five

Saracens 10 pts, Ospreys 7 pts, Biarritz Olympique 7 pts, Benetton Treviso 6 pts.

The tightest of all the pools, with all four teams still in with a shout of winnig it. The Ospreys and Biarritz have to be favourites this weekend, although nothing is a given, with Saracens having a great away record, and Biarritz being in woeful form so far this season. Ultimately I think that Treviso will fall short, and of the other three, all will be disappointed if they don't qualify, as they all came in with realistic expectations of topping this pool. It is the toughest of all the pools to call really, as there is little between the sides in terms of quality, but if Saracens can claim an away win this week, they will be firmly in the box seat over the home stretch.

Ozzy's tip for the top: Tight as it is, I have Saracens just edging it, but with only 19 points, and an away quarter final.


Pool Six

Toulouse 12 pts, Harlequins 8 pts, Gloucester Rugby 5 pts, Connacht Rugby 1 pt.

Much like Leinster in pool 3, Toulouse have down the hard graft to put themselves firmly in the driving seat. Friday's win at The Stoop showed their strength, and put a serious dent in Harlequins quarter final aspirations. Connacht, despite running both AP sides close do not have the quality to cause too many more problems in this pool and I think will lose all 6. Toulouse I think will have to much for Quins again this week and will be qualified by the time they hit Kingsholm in R6, so the only real question for me in this pool is whether or not Quins can collect enough points to make it through as a best runner up.

Ozzy's tip for the top: Toulouse, nothing much more to say, other than I don't see them losing and they should get 25 points.

So if my crystal ball is working correctly the seedings appear thus…

1. Leinster - 25 points (courtesy of the tries I think they will score)
2. Toulouse - 25 points
3. Munster - 23 points
4. Cardiff Blues - 22 points
5. ASM Clermont Auvergne - 21 points
6. Saracens - 19 points

with the following as the best runners up…

7. Scarlets 19 points
8. Ulster Rugby 19 points

That would be some tasty quarter finals there, with an inter-pro between Leinster and Ulster, the free flowing Scarlets attempting to storm Toulouse, a real slug-fest between Munster and Saracens at Thomond, and a battle royale in Cardiff between the Blues and ASM.


Well that is my crystal ball gazing done for the morning, although I will add that as a London Irish fan this would represent a disappointing campaign, as we are in a pool that I felt we could and should qualify from.

So what do people think? Is this a likely outcome, and how do you feel about your teams performance so far, and what what are your aspirations for the rest of the competition?

Munster end up with 23 and are unbeaten? A BP win.another win and a draw? I would agree with that, think Leicester will sneak in ahead of Ulster though.

I think I am going mad Thomond, but it was early this morning when I was writing this. I have them down as two TBP's in their home games and an LBP away at Saints having qualified, so not unbeaten, I will amend accordingly.

Thomond wrote:Munster end up with 23 and are unbeaten? A BP win.another win and a draw? I would agree with that, think Leicester will sneak in ahead of Ulster though.

To do that they would almost certaintly have to win at Ravenhill.
Also far from certain they would win at home to Clermont.
I honestly think Ulster are in a better place than Tigers.

The one thing that does strike me is the fact that an Ospreys win next week could mean the English are facing a whitewash.

It could Geoff, but even if the Ospreys beat Saracens, they could still both be tied on 11 points, and Saracens have Biarritz at home whereas the Ospreys have to go to France yet, so as long as Saracens get an LBP I would still fancy them to win the pool.

Agree with that losing bonus point assessment - Ospreys must deny Saracens a LBP to have a decent chance.
Also don't forget Biarritz lost to Aironi last year and still qualified. A win at home next week will still keep them in the hunt.

Good Calls there Oz. I hope that my team the Ospreys can make a better account of ourselves. We were very poor against Saracens. We now need to win away in Biarritz, beat Saracens in the Liberty and TBP Treviso. Mind you a TBP over Sarries next week at home and a close game between Biarritz and Treviso would change things a bit.

good job ozzy

what do you think of london irish chance to get a result in scotland? did they improve since their first game? at the end of the day, if they win all of last 3 games (with 2 at home) they would finish 1st.

I actually see saracens with 20-21 points: they should get a BP win at home vs Biarritz , get 4 in Treviso and 1 lpb if not more in Wales. and yes we could have a now traditional leinster-Leicester or Leinster-ASM in the QFs (not convinced that an ASM without props will do the job in Welford road to be honest,)!!!

maestegmafia I don't think you ever give other teams credit.

Saracens were simply playing too good for 50 minutes for Ospreys to handle. Unfortunately things like the sin binning of Owen Farrell,departure of Brits and Hodgson let Ospreys back in. Credit to Ospreys for hanging on and never giving up but you need to acknowledge the ability of the opposition too. I was impressed by the dogged spirit of O's and even when 12 points down never really truly looked down and out.

I think Saracens will struggle at the Liberty stadium. A win would be huge though and it's what is needed. If Saracens play like they did for the first 50 minutes they could win.

whocares

Irish are impossible to call. We could easily win our remaining three games claiming bonus points in each which would see us finish on 22 points, but we could equally easily lose all 3 and finish on 7. If we play with the intensity we did on Saturday, then we have a decent chance of winning all three games. This weeks game will present a much clearer picture for the future.

Ozzy it's all about consistency with London Irish. We all know you have a dangerous side.

geoff998rugby wrote:

Thomond wrote:Munster end up with 23 and are unbeaten? A BP win.another win and a draw? I would agree with that, think Leicester will sneak in ahead of Ulster though.

To do that they would almost certaintly have to win at Ravenhill.
Also far from certain they would win at home to Clermont.
I honestly think Ulster are in a better place than Tigers.

I agree Geoff but only if we get 5 points next week. If we come away with 4 then we are in trouble but if we get maximum then we are in a very strong position. I think we need 20 points to have any hope of qualifying and that will be a tough ask.

beshocked wrote:Ozzy it's all about consistency with London Irish. We all know you have a dangerous side.

We are consistently inconsistent!!!

I think that Hape comes back off his ban this week, and Marland Yarde is back in training, so the backs options will be a bit more, which might help in terms of putting a decent run together.

After the decent startt the two scots teams had I am hoping one at least qualifies. Edinburgh have the best chance I think- but beating Cardiff is pretty well essential - and they might just be able to do it

TJ

Do you think Edinburgh have it in themselve to beat the Blues on Friday? There recent record against them is very poor. What do you think they need to change from the way they approached last Friday's match in order to reverse the result?

They certainly are able to do so - this year they have been playing a lot better than in previous years.

I didn't see much of Fridays match. they need to take their chances basically. They had the opportunity to win that game from the little I saw / heard / read and the scoreline flattered Cardiff

Its certainly possible to win and much more likely that the Cardiff fans believe

Connacht 5pts, I wish.

Only have the 1 so far, might be 5/6 come saturday evening

TJ wrote:Its certainly possible to win and much more likely that the Cardiff fans believe

I certainly agree with that. I get the impression, although I stand to be corrected, that some Blues fans think they are now in the quarter finals and will win 6 from 6 in the pool stage. They do however now face back to back away fixtures, which they will need to be at the top of their game in, otherwise they could come seriously unstuck and be left with a real struggle to make the knockout stage.

westisbest wrote:Connacht 5pts, I wish.

Only have the 1 so far, might be 5/6 come saturday evening

Good spot, duly amended!

I would see Edinburgh vs Cardiff as pretty much a 50/50 game, likewise Ospreys vs Saracens, whereas poor old Scarlets are up against it big-time.

I think there is a distinct possibility that there will be no English sides in the knock out stage.

Bah Humbug!

Yup - shows the strength of the relative leagues :-)

I have a theory about this but have been shouted down before.

Due to the way the game is played in the aviva where its all slower and more attritional the refs work slightly differently and when the English teams come into Europe they cannot adapt so give away loads of penalties and get frustrated. Its especially so at ruck and maul

Ozzy3213 wrote:I get the impression, although I stand to be corrected, that some Blues fans think they are now in the quarter finals and will win 6 from 6 in the pool stage.

I don't think any blues fans think we are home and dry in the group, we still got an away trip to irish in january to get through. So anybody thinking that are idiots.

Can we win on Friday? Sure we can, we got nothing to fear going up to Edinburgh on Friday. We have beaten them up there a lot recently, we just need to build on our second half performance. Our forwards took them on second half and made ridiculous amounts of ground on them, the offloading in close play by the front five was outstanding and left the 'burgh forwards scrambling around. Then there was the driving play of Bradley & Filise, they really stepped up and carried it through the heart of the Edinburgh forwards and the rest of the pack followed suit, just punching through the middle. We need more of that, they just couldn't cope with that and with Warburton again outstanding in defence, up front is where we can dominate.

Just hope Parks keeps kicking the points, we won't get a BP win because Edinburgh won't allow another Racing Metro style game. I am happy with that, i want to win games and if that means grinding teams down and taking the 3 points then that's what happens. I'd rather be 4 from 4 and played 'boring rugby' than 2 from 4 playing champaigne style stuff. We have the backs who can score tries but it hasn't happened yet, but as long as we keep winning then i don't really care.

I think you are sort of right there TJ but I'm sure that is not the only reason. The ferocity at the breakdown is a lot less in GP than the other leagues and generally the English forwards body position, agression and speed to the contact area is inferior to that of their French and Irish counterparts. When the breakdown becomes competitive the English teams become fustrated and give away a lot of naive penalties. This shines through to the National side too. This is obviously a generalisation but its something I've noticed over the past few years.

I think Saracens will make it but I've been really disappointed with teh Tigers and Saints this year, both of whom I thought would be title contenders.

I don't think the 'strength' of the relative leagues is really the issue, more the style and structure.

For a number of reasons, which this is not the thread to discuss them on, the Rabo encourages a more open game, and also teams in that league have a different mentality in terms of priorities regarding to competitions.

The AP sides do need to adapt better, and respond to how referees are interpreting games, as it is different to our domestic stuff.

The early morning crystal ball said that Saracens will be the only AP side through, but Irish, Bath, Tigers and Quins are all still in with a shout, albeit with difficult passages to progress through. It is not all doom and gloom, but I do agree that the AP teams need to find a way to up their game at the top table, otherwise they risk falling behind the T14 and Rabo teams in a number of regards.

gcBlues wrote:IJust hope Parks keeps kicking the points, we won't get a BP win because Edinburgh won't allow another Racing Metro style game. I am happy with that, i want to win games and if that means grinding teams down and taking the 3 points then that's what happens. I'd rather be 4 from 4 and played 'boring rugby' than 2 from 4 playing champaigne style stuff. We have the backs who can score tries but it hasn't happened yet, but as long as we keep winning then i don't really care.

Whilst I tend to agree, winning is everything, it is interesting that if you get 4 points on Friday, and we (Irish) get 5 on Saturday, despite you being 4 from 4 and us being 2 form 4, we will only be 4 points, and therefore 1 win behind you.

Can't fault the logic of any of that, but this is such an excellent and unpredictable competition that I can't help thinking that there is a shock lined up in one of the groups. I think it will come in pool 5. Treviso and the Ospreys might just between them conspire to spoil it for the Saracens.

I think Quins are pretty screwed now.

To even make it as best runner up we realistically need to get a point (maybe two) from Toulouse, 5 points from Gloucester and 5 from Connacht.

Do able? Yes. Realistic? No.

Ho hum, there's still the Prem to look forward to, who are we playing next? Oh...

It's interesting that having lost one game you feel that Quins are done for now yappy. You are right that you will likely need bonus points from here on in to qualify, but such is the nature of this competition, that one big result this week and you are right back in it.

Quins need to really raise their game and go and throw the kitchen sink at Toulouse. Didn't Wasps almost get a result there last season?

I also think that Edinburgh could turn over the Blues fairly easily at home.

Gloucester who we've humped this season almost won there earlier in the comp but that was a very different French beast to the one we played on Fri. The ease with with they bullied us around the park on Friday was a real lesson in forward play and we can't match that and even if our pack does have a massive game unless Casson is back we'll struggle to put moves together in the backs.

We'll also be missing Gray and Marler possibly looking at the injuries.

It's been talked about a lot before. but the fact that they can spend 25 mil+ Euros building a squad does give them a massive advantage over just about every one else.

Yes, but you had them in the scrums big time. It was as if you were playing like the Scarlets, not knowing when to kick the corners and when to chuck it wide.

Good post Ozzy, kudos for making predictions on all groups as I think the QF places are still wide open with the exception of Toulouse and Leinster who have their places nailed down.

Pool 1:

We'll know a lot more after next weekend, I wouldn't rule out Scarlett's as I think their style of play works better when they are away from home and the expectation is a little less. I still expect a Munster win but I don't think a TBP is nailed on by any means - Scarlett's will be dangerous here. If Saints don't turnaround the Castres result we could find Castres fielding first choice 15's in their remaing two games as they may feel second spot is within reach - this could affect the final points tally at the end as a TBP would not be guaranteed for Munster in January.
My guess is Munster on 22 (4 v Sca, 5 v Cas, 1 v NH).

Pool 2:
Very interesting here, should Edinburgh turnover the Blues and Irish get another TBP we could end up with 1 point separating the top 3.
I think Edin will beat Blues with LPB. Blues then have Irish away and Racing at home - LBP against Irish and TBP against Racing. (Blues get 7 more points).
Edin - all comes down to what kind of team Racing field at home - if they field a weakend team Edin could possibly come away with 5.

Ok the permutations here are nearly endless - I think Blues will win this group with 19 points - however if Edin come away from Racing with a win then they might just go through on 21/2.
3 teams still in this!!

Pool 3:

Leinster nailed on - will most likely get 14 or 15 points from their last 3 games - agree with Ozzy, top seed for QF's.

Pool 4:

Cracking pool, my pool of death really. I expect Tigers to turnaround last weekends defeat. Tigers have an excellent pedigree in this tournament and Clermont are woeful travellers - Tigers get 4 with ASM getting nothing.

I think the big game here is Tigers trip to Ravenhill - Tigers will need to win here and I can't see them doing that. If not they need Ulster to do something in Clermont....which would put Ulster through, but again - I cant see that happening.
I think the ASM & Ulster will get 9 points from their remaing games with Tigers getting 10. -
ASM top the group on 19

Pool 5:

Another interesting pool. Ospreys may well turnover Sarries (LBP) at the weekend with Biarritz picking up a bonus at home aginst Treviso. Sarries should win their final 2 games - they'll have seen the dangers of Treviso at home and should be prepared - 9 points from their last 3 games with Biarritz picking up 10 max - Ospreys 10 max should put Sarries through on 19.

Pool 6:

Toulouse all the way - agree with Ozzy - about 24 points as the may not find TBP's as easy to come across as Leinster - QF second seeds.

Interestingly - take pools 2 & 6 out - all other pools are only 1 result away from being turned on their head. There's a lot of teams in this that I can't yet rule out.