OWGR - Week #5

First topic message reminder :

Very impressive victories this week by Paul Lawrie in Qatar and by Kyle Stanley in Phoenix!
Many of us have been very impressed with Stanley's performance last week and felt sorry for him as he lost that one at the last moment, in such dramatic fashion, but I never thougt he'll be able to come back so strong, so quickly! Quite ironic that somone else (Levin) had to suffer a very similar fate this week in the process. But maybe it'll be his turn now to win next week, who knows...

As a result, Paul Lawrie jumps up 31 places to #47 and now has high hopes also for a ticket to the Masters. Stanley climbs 35 places 'only' to #52, but has the Masters ticket guarranteed... That's life, but we won't go into that debate here. Among other movers this week: Levin moves to #72 while Jason Day, runner up in Qatar, moves back to #7 in the world. And I also want to mention two other interesting movers: JM Olazabal has been playing very well over the last few weeks and this week he manages a nice jump up somewhere around #350, while John Daly had his best result in many, many years and jumps up around 230 spots somewhere not too far of the top 300. Tiger goes down one spot to #18, Padraig drops further to #93, while Ernie is now at #62 and he's in serious danger of missing one of the last qualifying spots for the MatchPlay...

Finally, congratulations also to the Aussie Kieran Pratt who won (after a play-off) the first tournament of the season on the Asian Tour (in Myanmar/Burma). Following that he climbs almost 230 places, somewhere around #270 in the world.

The OWGR table after week #5 should look like this:

1 Luke Donald
2 Rory McIlroy
3 Lee Westwood
4 Martin Kaymer
5 Steve Stricker
6 Webb Simpson
7 Jason Day
8 Adam Scott
9 Charl Schwartzel
10 Dustin Johnson
---------------------------
11 Graeme McDowell
12 Matt Kuchar
13 Nick Watney
14 K.J. Choi
15 Brandt Snedeker
16 Sergio Garcia
17 Phil Mickelson
18 Tiger Woods
19 Bubba Watson
20 Justin Rose
21 Hunter Mahan
22 Ian Poulter
23 Bill Haas
24 Paul Casey
25 Keegan Bradley
26 Simon Dyson
27 Alvaro Quiros
28 Thomas Bjorn
29 Louis Oosthuizen
30 David Toms
31 Kim Kyung-Tae
32 Bo Van Pelt
33 Robert Karlsson
34 Peter Hanson
35 Jason Dufner
36 Anders Hansen
37 Rickie Fowler
38 Martin Laird
39 Fredrik Jacobson
40 Bae Sang-moon
41 Mark Wilson
42 John Senden
43 Francesco Molinari
44 Geoff Ogilvy
45 Zach Johnson
46 Ben Crane
47 Paul Lawrie
48 Retief Goosen
49 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano
50 Miguel A Jimenez
-------------------------------
51 Aaron Baddeley
52 Kyle Stanley
53 Ryo Ishikawa
54 Y.E. Yang
55 Darren Clarke
56 Jonathan Byrd
57 Gary Woodland
58 Robert Rock
59 Jim Furyk
60 Matteo Manassero
61 Greg Chalmers
62 Ernie Els
63 Kevin Na
64 Robert Allenby
----------------------------
65 Ryan Moore
66 Charles Howell-III
67 Joost Luiten
68 Rory Sabbatini
69 Nicolas Colsaerts
70 Toru Taniguchi
71 Alexander Noren
72 Spencer Levin
73 Johnson Wagner
74 Sean O'Hair
75 Vijay Singh
76 Chez Reavie
77 George Coetzee
78 Hiroyuki Fujita
79 Lucas Glover
80 Edoardo Molinari
81 Pablo Larrazabal
82 Jaco Van Zyl
83 Thomas Aiken
84 Ryan Palmer
85 Harrison Frazar
86 Jeff Overton
87 David Lynn
88 Carl Pettersson
89 Robert Garrigus
90 Michael Hoey
91 Branden Grace
92 Yuta Ikeda
93 Padraig Harrington
94 Gregory Havret
95 Brendan Jones
96 Jamie Donaldson
97 D.A. Points
98 Tetsuji Hiratsuka
99 Chris Kirk
100 Koumei Oda
----------------------------
101 Bryce Molder
102 Charley Hoffman
103 Richie Ramsay
....

Yes, Els could play Mayakorba, but I doubt if he will. Win is the only thing that will make a big impact to get into top 50 (and it will come up well short)

top 50 bubble point will be about 2.8-2.85 OWGR avg. Els needs about 42 points to get there comfortably.

NTO will be somewhere in the high 50's (going by recent past history)
Mayakorba will be level 24.
Honda should be in the high 50's as well.

princedracula wrote:The OWGR table after Rd3 in Dubai and Rd2 in California:
(if you're an Ernie Els fan, look away now!)

60 Matteo Manassero
61 Greg Chalmers
62 Kevin Na
63 Vijay Singh
64 Nicolas Colsaerts
65 Ernie Els
------------------------------------
66 Ryan Moore
67 Robert Allenby
68 Charles Howell III
69 Joost Luiten
70 George Coetzee
71 Rory Sabbatini
72 Spencer Levin
73 Alexander Noren
74 Toru Taniguchi
75 Johnson Wagner
76 Chez Reavie
77 Hiroyuki Fujita
78 Sean O'Hair
79 Lucas Glover
80 Padraig Harrington
...

The difference between Moore and Els is infinitesimal and at the first birdie from Moore, Else would go out! (remember we assume that only Phil will be missing in Tucson).

As of 6 pm ET, it looks like Vijay (T2 => ~T13) fell back, replaced by Ryan Moore (T17 => ~T8). Els is still hanging on to the final spot.

Paddy needs to win, Coetzee, Singh need to go low, to crash the party. Na looks like he is going to confirm his spot.

I wonder if it is possible if the top 4 seeds could play VJ, Paddy, Furyk, and Els in the first round of the Accenture. If the stars align, I think it possible. Manassero needs to have a really good round tomorrow and Chalmers need to play well next week.

Missed the final part of Dubai, but delighted for RCB!
He's certainly through to the Match Play and who knows, maybe more to come after that.
Here's the provisional standings before the final round at Pebble.

..............
58 Robert Rock
59 Rafael Cabrerra-Bello
60 Jim Furyk
61 Matteo Manassero
62 Kevin Na
63 Greg Chalmers
64 Nicolas Colsaerts
65 Ryan Moore
-----------------------------------
66 Ernie Els
67 George Coetzee
68 Robert Allenby
69 Joost Luiten
70 Charles Howell III
71 Spencer Levin
72 Rory Sabbatini
73 Vijay Singh
74 Alexander Noren
75 Toru Taniguchi
76 Johnson Wagner
77 Chez Reavie
78 Sean O'Hair
...
Feeling sorry for Coetzee in particular, he had a good go at it but not quite enough...
There is still of course, a remote chance for him and Ernie, i.e the total colapse of Moore and Na in the final round... we'll see...

Thanks, PD.

According to my quick and dirty and unofficial calculations, I think Na (currently T4) has to fall to about 33rd or worse to behind Els. Maybe if he makes another 16 on a hole.

Moore still has some work to do to finish ahead of Els. He is T12 and needs a 17th or better to pass Els.

Coetzee's anguish on his last few missed putts suggested he knew exactly what was at stake . . . .

(I'd be perfectly happy for Na to suffer a "total collapse".)

I am not a Kevin Na fan but I am rooting for him to pass Els.

IMO, if Els wants to play the Match Play, he should have played this weekend. I don't think sitting idle should be rewarded.

With Moore shooting up the LB at Pebble Beach, now Colsaerts is the new bubble boy at #65. Among those still with some remote hopes, SO'H would need a solo 3rd, Vijay a solo 4th and Levin a 2-way tie for 5th to move past Colsaerts at #65. All these look rather unlikely at the moment, but who knows...

Na doing his own shooting too, and not of the "in the foot" variety I was hoping for.
Veej going nowhere fast, solo 4th out of reach at this rate.

Moore dropping back down, on the bubble once again, but if Levin could pick up two more shots he could get the last ticket to Match Play...

Moore drops further, Ernie back in! This is getting silly...

Levin and VJ are out of the Match Play game.
It's now down to Moore really to stay ahead of Els. At 8-under as he is now, he's just ahead of Ernie and IN, if he drops to 7-under he would go behind Els and OUT...

Moore could not get the job done, Finished at -7. currently T19. And out of the match play, unless someone else WDs.