OWGR - Week #6

First of all, congratulations to Rafael Cabrerra-Bello and to Phil Mickelson for their great wins this week in Dubai and at the AT&T ProAm, respectively!

RCB jumps 59 places to a career best #60 and straight into the Match Play field, while Phil moves only 6 places to #11. Gallacher, runner up in Dubai, returns to the top 100 at #97, while Westwood did just enough (or Rory didn’t) to move back ahead of McIlroy at #2 in the world. Tiger, who’s obviously not back yet, stays at #18 and Padraig finally manages a bit of a lift up to #86, after a decent yet still quite frustrating week.

There has been certainly some added excitement in following who’s in and who’s not when it comes to the Match Play field, but to be honest now I’m quite glad it’s over! Well done to all those who made the ‘cut’ in the end and commiserations to those who didn’t make it. Although as we’ve been discussing here for a while, the latter category could be split further into those who didn’t make it but they tried their best (Coetzee, Moore) and those who should’ve put more effort and/or should’ve managed their chances better (and there’s a long list here). And then there’s Ernie Els... Of course, the situation can still change if Casey or indeed someone else decides to withdraw from the Tucson event at the last moment.

Finally, congrats also to Mardan Mamat from Singapore who won the 2nd tournament of the year on the Asian Tour, in the Philippines, and he’ll be rewarded with a nice jump of almost 100 places, somewhere not far from #230.

The OWGR table after week #6 should look like this:

1 Luke Donald
2 Lee Westwood
3 Rory McIlroy
4 Martin Kaymer
5 Steve Stricker
6 Webb Simpson
7 Jason Day
8 Adam Scott
9 Charl Schwartzel
10 Dustin Johnson
---------------------------
11 Phil Mickelson
12 Graeme McDowell
13 Matt Kuchar
14 Nick Watney
15 K.J. Choi
16 Brandt Snedeker
17 Sergio Garcia
18 Tiger Woods
19 Bubba Watson
20 Justin Rose
21 Hunter Mahan
22 Bill Haas
23 Paul Casey
24 Ian Poulter
25 Thomas Bjorn
26 Keegan Bradley
27 Simon Dyson
28 Alvaro Quiros
29 Louis Oosthuizen
30 David Toms
31 Kim Kyung-Tae
32 Robert Karlsson
33 Bo Van Pelt
34 Jason Dufner
35 Peter Hanson
36 Anders Hansen
37 Rickie Fowler
38 Fredrik Jacobson
39 Martin Laird
40 Francesco Molinari
41 Mark Wilson
42 John Senden
43 Bae Sang-Moon
44 Aaron Baddeley
45 Paul Lawrie
46 Geoff Ogilvy
47 Ben Crane
48 Zach Johnson
49 Gonzalo Fdez-C.
50 Retief Goosen
--------------------------
51 Miguel Jimenez
52 Kyle Stanley
53 Ryo Ishikawa
54 Darren Clarke
55 Y.E. Yang
56 Gary Woodland
57 Jonathan Byrd
58 Robert Rock
59 Jim Furyk
60 Rafael Cabrerra-Bello
61 Matteo Manassero
62 Kevin Na
63 Greg Chalmers
64 Nicolas Colsaerts
65 Ernie Els
-------------------------------
66 George Coetzee
67 Ryan Moore
68 Robert Allenby
69 Joost Luiten
70 Charles Howell III
71 Spencer Levin
72 Rory Sabbatini
73 Alexander Noren
74 Toru Taniguchi
75 Johnson Wagner
76 Vijay Singh
77 Sean O'Hair
78 Chez Reavie
79 Hiroyuki Fujita
80 Lucas Glover
81 Edoardo Molinari
82 Jacko Van Zyl
83 Pablo Larazabal
84 Ryan Palmer
85 Thomas Aiken
86 Padraig Harrington
87 Harrison Frazar
88 David Lynn
89 Jeff Overton
90 Carl Pettersson
91 Jamie Donaldson
92 Robert Garrigus
93 Gregory Havret
94 Branden Grace
95 Michael Hoey
96 Yuta Ikeda
97 Stephen Gallacher
98 D.A. Points
99 Brendan Jones
100 Koumei Oda
-----------------------------
101 Chris Kirk
102 Tetsuji Hiratsuka
103 Charley Hoffman
....

Coetzee is the first alternate? That is long way to fly to be an alternate.

He should be given an exemption to play Mayakorba, if he flies over and does not get in because of a late WD.

I guess the PGA Tour/Timmy would potentially rather see Ryan Moore play Donald - so why try to lure Coetzee over...?

Remember, match-ups are based upon next week's rankings!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think GPB and pedro touch on a great point: the Tours must surely pay expenses for an alternate to roll up for an event like this - no reason for Georgey to turn up on spec.

Great work, pd,
Five Spanish players in the top 64, Rickie Fowler and Martin Laird headed down, Padraig headed back up and playing next week at Riviera which in the past has really suited him.

A couple of slightly ironic circumstances with regards to the Els/Coetzee situation relative to the Match Play (difference between them is around one hundredth of a percent)... Apart from being fellow South Africans, it turns out that if Els would've played at Pebble Beach, and if he wouldn't've scored any points, Coetzee would finish ahead of him and qualify. And then the other thing is that this week if Els fails to score at Riviera, Coetzee will move ahead of him anyway... C'est la vie!

Also, Rory will move back to #2 ahead of Lee at the end of this week...

Didn't realise Webb Simpson had got up as high as that in the Rankings and with Stricker a place above him just proves that Consistency is key to the Rankings system now and not streaky form.

The next owgr watch will be for the top 50 as at Feb 27th AND March 5th as golfers so ranked will qualify for the WGC Cadillac Championship at Doral.

Of the guys ranked 40 -65, these are the ones not yet in the "Cadillac":
F.Molinari
Crane
Z.Johnson
Goosen
Stanley
Ishikawa
Rock
Furyk
Cabrera-Bello
Manassero
Na
Els
(Coetzee)

I know the match-ups are going to be based on next week's rankings but it is fun to speculate

Right now, TW is going to be seeded #17, which means he will be in Luke Donald's quarterfinal bracket. He would be bracketed to play Sergio in the 2nd round and bracketed to face Luke in the Round of 16. Organizers would be loving that!

Of course there is going to be some movement and chances are he will move down one or more spots in the rankings.

Moving down one would put in the Rory bracket, two spots in the Westy bracket and three spots in Kaymer bracket.

I think it is unlikely that he will drop more than three spots next week, (there is a relatively big break between him Bubba), So I think he will be bracketed to play one of the four Euro Juggernauts in the round of 16.

If that happens there will be a lot hype.

kwini, from that list RCBello and RRock would be reasonably hopeful to make it via the top 10 RtD 2012 criterium, although should the top Europeans do well in Tucson, that particular table could be redrawn quite dramatically... A very good opportunity also for a few guys playing in India, as Anantha is pretty lucrative (€300k), so guys like Luiten, Havret, Ramsay, Donaldson, etc. would be particularily interested in a win there.

And talking of Avantha, the inevitable just happened, RCB's name has been taken off the entry list this morning, so he'll be looking for an early flight to Arizona...

GPB, Tiger won't move from #18 when the weekly amortization is taken into account, but the Hunter pops up behind him ahead of Bubba, but you're right, there's a bit of a gap between TW and the next guys and is quite possible that he won't suffer a signifficant drop after Riviera...

I'm looking out for Colsaerts to do well at the MatchPlay this year, so Rory or Lee may well have to play him in the opening round... I think it's gonna be a toughy for whoever gets him...

If we're doing pointless speculation, how about this: as things stand, Dustin Johnson would play Woodland in the first round. That could be very interesting...

It would take much for Ernie Els to move past Colsearts this week will it?

He is only ~1.60 points behind Colsearts in the rankings and I would guess that he needs only a top 25 finish to move ahead of Colsearts after the spoilage is calculated.

I think Luke will be playing Colsearts in Round 1.

It looks RCB WDed from Avantha Masters. I typically do not like to see players WD at the 11th hour, but the trip from New Delhi to Tucson would have taken a lot out of him.

Ernie will be doing well if he finishes in the top 25 at Riviera (most probable to have the strongest field this year) based on his recent form, the runner-up finish at Fancourt being more of an exception rather than a rule. If he manages that then he probably deserves to be in the Match Play after all.

Anybody heard anything new about Casey and his plans?

Haven't seen anything so far on Casey.

Els has been striking the ball so well, statistically at any rate, that I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see him enjoy a good finish this week - perhaps follow in the footsteps of Vijay who finished 2nd last year??!!
Top ten for Justin Rose here last year, and Harrington's played well at Riviera in the past.

I agree about Harri, he certainly did well there in the past and I have (still) high hopes that he'll have a good week again this time around. Problem is that when it comes to previous records at the Riviera, there's probably few who did better than Mickelson there in the past, and after seeing that round yesterday, you wouldn't bet against him doing the double... Els had a rather mixed bag there, but would be great to see him doing well as you say...

Ok,

Assuming Casey plays, here's a few other 1st round Matchplay games (if this week was next week!!):

Donald v Els
Day v Furyk
Scott v Rock
Kaymer v Na
Kuchar v Clarke
Woods v Gonzo
Garcia v Goosen
Quiros v Laird

John Cregan

Those matchups are not confirmed, the seeds will be determined after Riviera. The field was set today, the matchups have not yet been determined.

Re Paul Casey:

I think Casey is going to play, if for no other reason than the free ranking points and free money. But only because it is a Ryder Cup year. The RC points and money are cumulative, not averaged.

I would not surprise me if he does a "Henrik Stenson." Concede the match after hitting a drive like HS did two years ago against Ben Crane.

Cheers GPD,
My previous post duly edited.............................

An early count for Riviera suggests around 60 points to the winner (62 last year).

No one can touch the top 3, but the Aussies in the top 10 could get to #4 if they win. Padraig would get back to the top 50 with a win

GPB wrote:John Cregan

Those matchups are not confirmed, the seeds will be determined after Riviera. The field was set today, the matchups have not yet been determined.

Re Paul Casey:

I think Casey is going to play, if for no other reason than the free ranking points and free money. But only because it is a Ryder Cup year. The RC points and money are cumulative, not averaged.

I would not surprise me if he does a "Henrik Stenson." Concede the match after hitting a drive like HS did two years ago against Ben Crane.

I forgot HS did that. I wonder was their an alternate who turned up yet didnt get to play?

if Paul Casey withdraws after the draw is made will George Coetzee play against Luuuuuuuke i wonder? or will he fill the position vacated by Casey?

If Casey WD's after the draw is made, the alternate will take his seed.

And two yrs ago, IIRC Gonzo was the first alternate, but I don't think he was on-site. In fact, I don't think there was any alternates on site.

I think there was an American on site who bolted off to Mayakoba when the final tee-time hit the fairway; can't remember who it was!

One would like to think the Tour would pay Coetzee to turn up and give him a place in Mayakoba if his travel proved to be otherwise fruitless.

(Incidentally, there's speculation that Mayakoba might be promoted to an autumn date when the new schedule takes its place in 2013 . . . . very highly regarded course.)

Checking the archived rankings, Ben Curtis would have been the 2nd alternate, and he did not play Mayakorba that year.

And absolutely, Coetzee should be offered a sponsors invite for Mayakorba and per diem.

No, it wasn't Curtis; but there was definitely an alternate (not necessarily first alternate) on site for whom this arrangement was made.

Curtis was 12th at Riviera last year, but now can't get in the field - times they are a changing.

I hope Casey won't do anything like that...If he or anyone else doesn't feel fit and able to play, they should really leave the space for someone else. Not necessarily a fan of his, but when you look at Coetzee, he really fought a hard and honest battle to climb his way up the rankings over the past half a year or so and would deserve a chance like that...

Anyway, between last Sunday's qualification deadline and next Monday's pairings, the other important date is this Friday when it's the deadline for those who qualified to confirm their participation. So hopefully we should hear then if Casey will or won't tee it off next week and if all these things are done properly and in time, then Coetzee should have enough time to get there if he's informed this Friday night or Saturday morning...

One more thing about the Stenson early concession to Ben Crane.

Ben Crane actually completed his round in a one-some, and he STILL held up the groups behind him.

BA DUMP DUM

Friday commitment.
If Coetzee gets in, then Ryan Moore will be on the hotseat (keeping a wary eye on Freddie Jac at Riviera?) followed by Allenby.

Just saw Tiger will play Honda!
Playing 3-weeks in a row?! Wow!!
Whatever next.... The Irish Open? (for free, of course)

http://www.hondaclassic.com/pages/player-commitments#

He's been very coy about this! Glad he'll be in the field, but can't imagine it's an ideal course for him. If the weather is as it usually is, he won't much care for the wind.

Stallings was the last-minute withdrawal, can't imagine his absence would affect the owgr points.
Still shocked at Stricker's absence . . . .

No, Stallings' w/d wouldn't do anything significant to the owgr points.
Not sure what to say about Stricker, perhaps he really wanted to have a birtday barty and he chose to do it this week rather than w/d from the Match Play...

Casey out of the MatchPlay.
Good news for George Coetzee - poetic justice?

Stricker said earlier this year that he was going to cut back his schedule even more than he already has the last few year. (after his win in Hawaii)

I think he is planning a 18 tournament schedule

WGCs (3) + Majors (4) + TPC (1) + FE Events (3 or 4) = 11/12

that leaves about 6 events and he has already played 2 (Hyundai + Sony)

Got to defend at Memorial and John Deere. (2)

so that leaves about 2-3 other events. Guessing Quail Hollow, Bay Hill

And Ryder Cup.

A bit of a clarification after Casey W/D...
So, as I said, the only 3 certain places for next Monday are:
1. Luke, 2. Rory, 3. Lee...

If Els doesn't score (and nobody else withdraws) this week, then the last 3 positions in the draw will be for sure:
62. Colsaerts, 63. Coetzee, 64. Els

So, we'll have the following matches:
Luke vs Els
Rory vs Coetzee
Lee vs Colsaerts

If Els scores at Riviera, he can move only above Coetzee, or above both Coetzee and Colsaerts...
So, basically you can say for sure that Luke will play Els or Coetzee, but Rory can play any of those three... For Lee it's getting even more complicated as others can fall into the frame for him. He won't be playing Coetzee for sure...

princedracula wrote:
If Els scores at Riviera, he can move only above Coetzee, or above both Coetzee and Colsaerts...

huh? ~60 points (if he wins) is only going to push Els past Colsearts and Coetzee? It should get him in the ~#30 range at about 3.30 avg.

Of course he could GPB, it just wasn't relevant to the point I was trying to make if he moves just one place or 30 places ahead of the other two...

I agree that Colsaerts could be a danger man.
Surprised to read that Rory's not bothering to fly to Arizona until Monday . . . . . . .

PD,

What are the chances of a GMac v DC or the El Clasico(Garcia/Jiminez)??

John C,
Hope you'll be entering the fantasy game . . . . .

I will for sure.........

I'm a bit of a Fantasy football addict already!

Final count:

- Riviera @ 62
- Avantha @ 20

Both same as last year...
With 62 pts even DJ could catch Kaymer at #4.
Phil can move to #5 with another win this week as the top ranked American.

P.S. Not sure if you saw Alex Miceli's silly rant on GC about ranking points after last week with Lefty only moving up 6 places after his win. Hope he didn't read this thread as I used the word 'only' when I referred to that...
Dear Alex, I was kidding, it's normal for that to happen as you're getting closer to the top....

kwinigolfer wrote:Surprised to read that Rory's not bothering to fly to Arizona until Monday . . . . . . .

I was even more surprised to hear that he's been working on some changes to his swing since the begining of the year...
If even McIlroy thinks he needs to change his swing, than we're all doomed...
He did say that they're small changes, but still.....

pd,
I read about Miceli's rant, can't stand him so not watching the video. But one of his quibbles was Phil's points earned vis-a-vis the Chevron and Nedbank hauls wasn't it? Think we would all agree with that.

As for the rest, if Phil and Tiger (to name but two) don't compete often enough or well enough, the number of points they generate is always going to seem disappointing to those (mostly over here) who choose not to "get" the rankings.

(Don't worry about Rory, sure he's just incorporating a little something that Caro suggested.)

I'd read about Rory's swing changes too somewhere, but don't know the specifics. Wouldn't be surprised if it's some finessing to minimise strain on back or something like that (given past problems).

He does seem to like arriving relatively late at big events and I believe this is deliberate (I'm fairly sure he said as much about either the Masters or the US Open last year), although I couldn't tell you why.

While accepting that Miceli made the point about the Chevron and Nedbank being wrong as regards OGWR points, he also made the point that Bello (as he called him) got 48 points, as if to put it on a pat with Chevron. He also said the system "hurt a US Player", obviously inferring that The 48 points for Dubai was undeserved as compared to Pebble..............................

A horrid man by the looks of it.................................

kwinigolfer wrote:pd,
I read about Miceli's rant, can't stand him so not watching the video. But one of his quibbles was Phil's points earned vis-a-vis the Chevron and Nedbank hauls wasn't it? Think we would all agree with that.

Exactly, and that actually made that rant even worse... because we all know the problems with Chevron/Nedbank, but the way he put it made it very obvious that he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about. He actually compared Phil's 'only' 6 place climb after wining Pebble, with Tiger's about 30 place climb after winning Chevron and...wait for it, Cabrerra's jump of 59 places after winning Dubai and then couldn't stop without throwing in something to the extent that this system is again 'hurting a US player' or something to that extent!!

So, the problem with such nonsensical attacks is that ironically it almost protects the system even better, as it makes it very easy to defend against such 'arguments'...

snap, JC!

What a moron - hadn't realised he'd had a go at Dubai, though not surprising.

The worst thing about this sort of crap is that he's just a mouthpiece for the idiots he works for, and by extension the PGA Tour.

Only way to prove the balance of power has shifted is for "Internationals" to keep on winning the big events.

Let's see, last year we had Donald, Schwartzel, McIlroy, Clarke, Scott and Kaymer vs Watney and Bradley.
Add in Choi for The Players and Donald for the Wentworth PGA and these maroons should swiftly realise the errors of their ways.

I am PGAT proponent and I hated Miceli's rant. All it was was a soundbite, and like most soundbites, it sounds good but lacks any substance when you really anaylze it. It sounded just like John Feinstein's rants.

Charlie Wi gained 57 spots last week and he only finished 2nd at ATT PB. RCB gained 59 spots for winning Dubai.

A golf analogy: a 18 handicap and a 11 handicap golfer go both and shoot an 80. whose handicap is going to be lowered more?

I have tweeted the several of the journalists that constantly rant about the OWGR but they never any advocates from OWGR to defend their system.

I think the OWGR does a great job of objectively quantifying the rankins with something that is very subjective.

That is not to say it doesn't have problems. Here is some samples.

In rating fields of golf, I think it should go deeper than the top 200 players, I think every player in the field adds value to field, no matter how trivial it might be.

The Nedbank/Chevron getting OWGR recognition is a travesty.

And I think the two year OWGR period is 12 month too long. And there are times in the calendar where a winning a major actually hurts your OWGR average. (the two weeks just prior to the Major when it is depreciated to 2.2% and 1.1% of the original 100 pts.)

also a complaint about the OWGR is the competitive disadvantage it gives to first year players.

Players like Tom Lewis, Bud Cauley, etc.

Without a fully populated resume it is virtually impossible for these players to crack the top 64 (or top 50) to get into the majors and WGCs.

It is especially bad for a player like Tom Lewis who needs to play the WGCs and majors to have a reasonable chance of making the Ryder Cup on merit since the Euro and OWGR list is so sensitive to the high dollar and high OWGR rated events.