Indian Wells: Post Mortem

Indian Wells, the first Masters 1000 even of the year has been and gone.

This time two weeks ago, Murray had a win over world number one under his belt, Federer won Dubai, Djokovic was shaking the rust off and Nadal....nobody knows (the jury is still out whether he was recovering from an injury or recovering from recovering from an injury).


As we all know too well, things can change fast in the world of tennis.

Two weeks later, we can conclude that:

Novak Djokovic is still shaking his rust off and building his form towards the core part of the season. Semi-final in IW is not as good as last year's win, but in my opinion, nothing to worry about.

Rafael Nadal finally emerged from his post AO hibernation, cutting through his easy draw like butter through knife until he bumped into 2.0 Federer. He, too had better result last year, and although this loss should be nothing to worry about, still, the fact that he lost to Federer on a slow hard-court could get under his skin in future tournaments.
I have seen no evidence of any dramatic change or improvement in Nadal's game, so the February hibernation was probably just recovery from recovery.


Roger Federer, notoriously written-off and than written-back-in, is back "again", and I must admit, it was strange seeing the photo of him with IW trophy in the day after photo-shoot. It has been a long time since he won anything "big" in the first half of a tennis year, so tennis world bill be watching with bated breath what this latest edition of Federer has in store.
The latest win over Nadal will have continued to consolidate his recent confidence, an ingredient hard to come by and treasured when in possession.

Andy Murray, who had just successfully proved that he wasn't going to have a post AO slump by playing well in Dubai (he didn't play last year) came back to square one by losing his first match at IW, just as he did last year.

Notable others:

Del Potro, after promising return of old form and display of good tennis, after IW sadly shrinks to nothing more than a Federer bunny. The season is young, but the door seems to be closing on him for some reason.

John Isner, the tree with a serve, but also with a smart attitude and newly improved return game, as well as injected aggression on his forehand. The big man expressed the desire and belief he could win a slam.

I see his recent result as a mix of both hard work and a bit of form. His game is very fragile to be consistent. Banana skin at best when it comes to slams, in my opinion.

Where to from here?

Miami beckons, but deep down, can't wait for tennis to come home: Europe

Djokovic still the holder of 3 slams - and trying to make it 4 - and still the undisputed no 1 until Wimbledon at the very earliest. A bit unlucky to lose to Isner. Unclear whether his form has dropped and he coudl even struggle to recpature his 2011 form or whether he's saving himself for the slams. Best guess - the latter.

Nadal I thought his first match he came back really smartly. Against Federer he wasn't able to pull out his best tennis to sieze the match from Federer when Federer's level dropped. One or two gifts at critical moments and didn't deal well with wind.

This part of the season is really quite exciting and I think Federer's wins make it a little more exciting. We could do with Nadal beating Djokovic to really shake things up.

Hello everyone, here's an extended piece of tennis poetry to share, as quoted below:

"And God said, let there be blistering wind with gloom of rain. Let pestilence and disease run rampant upon this blasphemy—this fake desert oasis made by the gall of mere men! Lo! And behold! the fevers rage, and the bellies roil. And hark! the hacking coughs defile and rend the once sweet air…. Oh see how the mighty have fallen! Oh see how they swoon! One by one are they cursed! Yet who among you is strong and blessed? Who among you is the best!… And when it was over, God saw Roger standing last and tall, and all alone, his mortal brow shining, crowned with laurel under the dappled sun. And God smiled, and said it was Good…. Yes, all is right with the world once again. And soon the desert will warm, and soon it will bloom. Just as it always has, and always will. Just like the Maestro will bloom again…. I’m feeling rather Biblical today. And why not? What a glorious performance by the Swiss Magician at Indian Wells! Only he has lifted this trophy four times now. Only he and a dour Spaniard have garnered 19 Masters titles. And speaking of the moody Majorcan—wasn’t he supposed to be the man of steel? The one standing firm against the onslaught of the elements, against the tempest and the bursts of rain. Yet it was only the mighty Federer who towered against the gale. Sweet justice! The Maestro simply sailed through the gusts, tacking beautifully, never fighting Zephyrus. Nadal, meanwhile, merely wilted in the wind. For here was something his obsessive-compulsive nature could not control. How could this be! you could almost hear him silently screaming—I am the youth here! I have the easy draw, the perfect slow court, and an ailing opponent, no less! And he is supposed to cower before me! In desperation, he tried one of his usual cheap, stalling tricks. Yes, it was time for a pee! Then a request to the Chair for a rain delay on match point! After only a few sprinkles! And the umpire agreed! But none of it worked. For it was all preordained. The mighty Fed simply waited patiently, then calmly slipped the dagger in with a resounding ace. And all the Sullen Spaniard could do was slink off the court, with an ever-darkening scowl…. After this masterly performance by Roger, I knew there was no way he would lose to that one-note giant called Isner. And so it was. Just like with Nadal, the Maestro played a smart, controlled match, employing his sublime array of shots to great effect, constantly keeping the plodding American off-balance. He even out-aced this supposed titan, leaving little doubt about the eventual outcome. It was another imperious Federer victory—Roger didn’t even lose a point on his serve in the second set until he broke Isner to go up 4-3. It was all so prosaic, so routine…. The Maestro has now won six of his last eight tournaments. So much for his detractors’ refrain of “he can only win on inside hard courts.” And suddenly, Miami looms. If Fed wins that, watch out! Then you’ll know this is all for real. Then you’ll know that he will win another slam or two. Of course, if this happens, the Fed-haters will quickly proclaim that we have, in the twinkling of an eye, reverted back to another weak era! since Nadal and the Djoker must obviously be nursing mysterious maladies which give Roger an unfair advantage. God knows what else they’ll come up with, as they vainly try to ignore the obvious—that a regal presence is in their midst, and always has been, and always will be." --- Courtesy, "Balthazar".

Another great article!

lol commonsense, very funny post - it sounds like quite a night!

Contrary to the rumour and despite his semi loss Rafa is actually improving. That means playing and serving harder, running as fast as ever (I would not say faster).

He is going to be tough to handle on clay...though I believe bouncy slow HC is actually his best surface now. Not clay. I really expect Murray, Djoko and Nadal to share most of the clay season roughly equally....You read it here first!

Tenez,

Yes, agree. Rafa has modified his game and coming to the net much more now. Good for him. But the problem remains, when roger's game is on, rafa's best is still not better.

I can see Murray, Djoko, even delpo and Isner stepping it up. But I think Nadal now has an extra psychological burden to deal with. Recent allegations re his time violations & others gamemanship issues are catching up with him and hitting him real hard in the head. Have you seen him ever looking so, hmmmmm, what's the word, worried/out-of-sorts/off, that's it, OFF, in a final?

Yes good point CS. I forgot about Delpo. I really think theclay season is going to be very different this year and Delpo may have a share of it too, especially if they play with FO balls.

Isner is in my view not mobile and fit enough to go all the way on a clay tournament but certainly could upset a few on the way.

Tenez, have you written off the other recent French Open winner's clay court chances?

Tennisanorak wrote:Tenez, have you written off the other recent French Open winner's clay court chances?

No but like SFP, I don;t want to Jinx him!

Nadal is actually probably one of the better net/volley players out there now (as the doubles title points) so I think this adds to his aggressive push forward. Until his timing went horribly awry he upped his game against Federer significantly to break back to 3-3...for 3 or 4 of those games it was probably the best tennis I've seen all year, both guys playing ultra-aggressive and Nadal was on or around the baseline. There is no doubt he's changing his approach in terms of pushing harder and his CCFH is generally working better than before, plus he's still the best passer in the game. He'll be tough to beat (as usual). Commonsense, I dont agree that the recent "allegations" are getting to Nadal. He's been playing this way for years and people have complained about it for years...and I still think he was rusty from the lay off and a little jaded post Nalby. Wasnt battle hardened. He'll be bouncing back in Miami.

For others, Djokovic only lost by the narrowest of margins...although Federer took out Isner without too many problems so this may point to the slight start of a dip for Djokovic...or is it a case he was never going to be able to sustain the amazing form of 2011? Plus he has added weight of expectation on his shoulders now. I still think he'll be going to last weekend of just about every event he enters but I wonder where Nole is at mentally at the moment....

Delpo on clay....hmmm, its a conundrum but he did push Nole hard last year at FO before failing light kicked in. Before that we know he almost beat Fed too. And then there's the start to the DC final last Dec. He'll be hard to beat...but I cant see outside Nadal or Djokovic really making all clay finals unless they're in separate events (Barcelona vs Belgrade). Maybe Madrid will be his best bet - cant see him beating the top 2 over 5 sets at FO.

Federer...hmm also. I think he'll do ok at Madrid (maybe the blue court will be to his liking! ) and Rome with SFs. But you know I have a feeling he's going to go early at FO this year. Alot depends on the playing conditions (balls, top dressing) as others have mentioned and the weather (cold vs warm).

Murray....I have no idea! Could lose R1,R1, R1, etc or make finals...you just dont know with him anymore! But surely Lendl will be of great help on the clay for him considering Lendl excelled on the stuff. So...1-2 SFs...maybe even SF at FO but equally it could be a disaster if he gets off to a bad start at MC.

Agree with Lydian and Tenez, I see a subtle shift in Nadal's approach. I was very surprised at how close to the baseline he was playing all throughout the IW. And he pulled off probably the niced serve and volley against Nalbandian I saw all tournament. He ran right in behind a wide serve to the Nalby backhand. Nalby being Nalby came up with a vicious return dipping down at nadal's feet and he carved out a truely Mcenroesque little backhand volley angled for a winner.

I think Novak has pushed to him to break out of the comfort zone. I think he realizes and Toni is smart enough to tell him that he will need to be more aggressive and take the intiative more often from now on. As he gets older and the miles start to wear this will be an important adjustment for him.

Also socal, the funny thing for me is that Nadal always had the ability to be aggressive - and with that FH why not!? But he chose to play a different tactic in recent years. And now he's shown he's one of the best singles player volleyers out there. If anyone watched the doubles final vs Querrey and Isner they would have seen how quick his hands can be, made the two tall guys look wooden. Agree Nole is pushing him onwards which can only be a good thing. Nadal is playing doubles at Miami too with Granollers - a) I think he likes doubles b) it's good training in being aggressive and moving forwards....on a doubles court you cannot live 8ft behind the baseline.

Yes, Lydian I remember Wilander doing something very similar in 1988. I always found him very dull and defensive to watch and then in 88 he was going for more on first serve and getting to the net more often. Nadal certainly can as you pointed out be very aggressive behind that forehand. One thing I really like is that because he has such control and gets such great angles on his forehands that once you drop a weak ball to him he uses his feet turns it into a forehand and gets on top of the point. And once he does he has such mastery on that forehand that he never lets the guy off with an easy error and unless the other player pulls out a great shot will not lose the initiative in the rally. And when he moves up behind the forehand in those situations he gets more dangerous.

Absolutely, it's still one of the best shots in tennis and if he can get that CCFH up near 100% (was off most of '11) again it's a devastating shot and causes guys no end of problems. The guy is never going to be Sampras-like but he doesn't need to add much to give him another edge.

Your man will still give him problems though!

Funny thing about Novak and Nadal matchup Lydian is that even when Nadal was beating up on Novak when Novak had his serving and fitness issues I always felt that Novak gave Nadal fits with his return game and was the only guy on tour who consistently won more points in the neutral baseline exchanges. It was just two major issues that continually plagued him that kept him from winning those matches in 09 and 10. One was the respiratory issues and the other one was the serve. Nadal seemingly would break Novak at will, now Novak is much harder to break and he still has the ability to get after Nadal's serve on the return.

I don't think Nadal will ever dominate the rivalry again but I do think that he is going to find away to make it more competitive than it is now and to get some big wins here and there.

socal1976 wrote:Yes, Lydian I remember Wilander doing something very similar in 1988. I always found him very dull and defensive to watch and then in 88 he was going for more on first serve and getting to the net more often. Nadal certainly can as you pointed out be very aggressive behind that forehand. One thing I really like is that because he has such control and gets such great angles on his forehands that once you drop a weak ball to him he uses his feet turns it into a forehand and gets on top of the point. And once he does he has such mastery on that forehand that he never lets the guy off with an easy error and unless the other player pulls out a great shot will not lose the initiative in the rally. And when he moves up behind the forehand in those situations he gets more dangerous.

That why Djokovic is so much on top of him. The model rally you describe is based on getting progressively weaker replies until the put away. Djokovic is able to reach these balls with some comfort and the DHBH means that he can makes aggressive replies, especially turning the Nadal forehand into the ad court into a deep cross court shot that stretches Nadals forehand and reverses the flow of the rally.

We see this pattern repeated throughout a match, where Nadal appears on top - even to the point where you think it's a cert - but then gets reversed. On the other hand, Djokovic hammers the Nadal backhand and gets those shorter and shorter balls until the put away comes off. This is why the fitness is so crucial - what Djokovic puts in to make this happen is very demanding and he can only see the tactic through to the end because he has this ridiculous level of fitness now. It also does put pressure on Nadal, who knows that if it goes mega-long he's more likely to wilt; this might well be why he is trying a more aggressive style to end points more quickly, and all credit to him, but it will lead to greater inconsistency of results. Maybe we will never see the clay sweep type of performance again from him because he won't be employing the lowest risk strategy that carried a guaranteed outcome.

I've noticed Murray and Federer both show an increased appetite to go wide to Nadals forehand when he's edged himself over the the deuce court, probably following Djokovic's lead.

In the end all players games are found out. What separates the greatest is their ability to reinvent themselves, perhaps many times, to stay the course in this arms race.

socal1976 wrote:Funny thing about Novak and Nadal matchup Lydian is that even when Nadal was beating up on Novak when Novak had his serving and fitness issues I always felt that Novak gave Nadal fits with his return game and was the only guy on tour who consistently won more points in the neutral baseline exchanges. It was just two major issues that continually plagued him that kept him from winning those matches in 09 and 10. One was the respiratory issues and the other one was the serve. Nadal seemingly would break Novak at will, now Novak is much harder to break and he still has the ability to get after Nadal's serve on the return.

I don't think Nadal will ever dominate the rivalry again but I do think that he is going to find away to make it more competitive than it is now and to get some big wins here and there.

Djokovic has always been a tricky match up for Rafa (Did you see what I did there...) In 2011 what Djokovic did so well was not just beat Nadal but get to him in the first place. To do that he has to beat the other players. So far this year he is finding it more difficult to do that than last year. Chances are this years important tounaments could be decided without these two players meeting so often. It will be how they compete with other players that will make the difference.

And I don't buy that Djokovic only lost to Nadal in 09 and 10 because he had "issues". If Djokovic (or rather you) can pull the "issue" excuse in 09 and 10 Nadal could do the same for 2011...