Super XV Week 8 Preview

http://www.v2journal.com/super-xv-2012-preview-round-8.html

We are now over a third of the way through the 2012 Super XV Round-Robin phase and in this post-Rugby World Cup season a few things are becoming abundantly clear:
-Australia currently does not have enough depth to sustain five Super Rugby teams. No Australian team has won outside of Australia this season and in 8 games played in Australia by visiting teams from New Zealand or South Africa the score is 4-4.
-Injury rates have soared in the early season. Few teams have escaped the carnage with the Lions and Reds notably the worst hit.
-Defence is king. Very few teams are picking up four-try bonus points, and around 70% of matches are being decided by 7 points or less.



Australian Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Brumbies	6	3	3	0	1	137	144	-7	3	19
2	Reds	7	4	3	0	0	140	193	-53	1	17
3	Waratahs	6	2	4	0	1	140	143	-3	5	17
4	Rebels	6	2	4	0	1	127	174	-47	2	14
5	Western Force	7	2	5	0	0	163	189	-26	4	12

New Zealand Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Chiefs	6	5	1	0	1	151	103	48	2	26
2	Highlanders	7	5	2	0	0	162	143	19	2	22
3	Hurricanes	7	4	3	0	0	225	195	30	5	21
4	Crusaders	6	3	3	0	1	143	135	8	3	19
5	Blues	6	1	5	0	1	126	158	-32	2	10

South African Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Stormers	6	6	0	0	1	146	97	49	0	28
2	Bulls	6	4	2	0	1	202	119	83	4	24
3	Sharks	7	3	4	0	0	161	177	-16	5	17
4	Cheetahs	7	3	4	0	0	194	199	-5	4	16
5	Lions	6	1	5	0	1	112	160	-48	2	10

Matches
Blues vs Sharks, Eden Park
It’s tough being a Blues supporter at the moment whether you hail from Cardiff or Auckland. The once high-flying New Zealand franchise is currently languishing at the bottom of the competition, and this week has seen cracks showing in the squad. Skipper Keven Mealamu publically criticised fellow All Black Piri Weepu’s weight, poor fitness and commitment. Weepu in response acknowledged “celebrating” the Rugby World Cup win in the off-season, and losing focus after achieving a goal he had focused on for eight years. Meanwhile Coach Pat Lam broke down twice in a press conference expressing his anger and distress at the racist overtones expressed on talkback radio and internet message boards as a result of the Blues’ poor performances. The Sharks come to Auckland after conceding 6 tries in a loss to the Hurricanes last week that sees them sitting 9th on the table, well behind the Stormers and Bulls in the South African conference, and badly in need of a win.

The Blues welcome the Braid brothers back on the flanks this week, while Ali Williams is given a rest and sits on the bench. Piri Weepu played club rugby in Wellington last Sunday but remains on the bench covering Albie Mathewson and Gareth Anscombe at 9 and 10. Benson Stanley joins Ma’a Nonu in the centres with Rene Ranger on the wing.

For the Sharks Patrick Lambie has recovered after missing two matches with a dental injury and he starts at 10 with Frederic Michalak dropping to a 5-2 forwards/backs bench. Bismark du Plessis has been ruled out after originally being named to start while Willem Albert rotates to the bench allowing Jean Deysel his first start of the season.

I tipped the Blues to come good on their last outing, now with their season all but ruined and their backs to the wall I don't think they can pull off a win. Though that's often when they surprise you. Sharks by 10.


Force vs Waratahs, nib Stadium
The Waratahs come off the bye and travel to Perth to take on the Force, who lost to the Chiefs last week. Both teams are desperately in need of a win, the Force to push themselves past the Rebels at the foot of the Australian conference, while the 10th placed Waratahs are only 2 points behind Brumbies who currently hold a playoffs berth as Australian Conference leaders. They are also currently level with the Reds who will earn 4 points for the bye this week.

The Force have only one change to their 22 this week, with Cameron Shepherd back from injury to take a bench spot in place of the injured Samu Wara, with Rory Sidey promoted to a starting berth on the wing. Once again David Pocock and halfback Brett Sheehan are the key players.

Meanwhile the Waratahs have the luxury of fielding an unchanged 22 from two weeks ago. Prop Benn Robinson retains the captaincy while Berrick Barnes and Scotsman Brendan McKibbin hold the 10 and 9 jerseys ahead of Daniel Halangahu and Sarel Pretorius. The 'Tah's backline has Adam Ashley-Cooper out on the wing with Rob Horne at centre which may be a slight waste of Ashley-Cooper's talent.

This one could go either way, but the Force are very strong at home. Force by 4.


Crusaders vs Stormers- Rugby League Park, Christchurch
The Crusaders return home from a relatively successful South African tour fuming at the dismissed eye-gouge allegations against them as well as the narrow loss in a match against the Bulls that they at half time. They face a still unbeaten Stormers who dispatched the Highlanders in Dunedin who will be focusing on attacking the seven-times champions in the set piece and at the breakdown.

The Crusaders initially hoped Richie McCaw would be fit to play but while he is back running he is still three or four weeks off playing. He has however ruled out an Italian sabbatical in the Pro12 next season. Todd Blackadder has sprung a surprise this week selecting the world's best first five-eighth Dan Carter at second five-eighth outside Tom Taylor with Ryan Crotty dropping to the bench. The regular front row rotation sees Ben Franks start ahead of brother Owen at tighthead, while Tom Donnelly returns to the starting pack at lock. Israel Dagg at full back will be looking to atone after a self-confessed "shocker" last week.

Allister Coetzee has tweaked the Stormers team for this week, with Brok Harris starting at tighthead prop and Frans Malherbe rotating to the bench. Gio Aplon’s injury means he is ruled out giving former Bull Gerhard van den Heever a start on the right wing, and Nizaam Carr replaces Nick Koster on the bench. Look out for Joe Pietersen who had a superb game at fullback last week, bagging a brilliant solo try along the way, though he loses the kicking duties to Peter Grant.

This is my tip for match of the round, and it should be close. The Crusaders let their game plan drift in the middle stages last week, if they can tighten that up then home ground advantage should hand the Stormers their first loss of the season. Crusaders by 5.


Brumbies vs Rebels, Canberra Stadium Canberra
Surprise Australian table-toppers the Brumbies host the struggling Rebels this week. Jake White has followed the old Brumbies tradition of converting other states' rejects into successes so far this season, while the Rebels' collection of flashy, impressive, imported backline stars have struggled behind a weak forward pack.

There are six changes for the Brumbies this week. In the front row Ben Alexander rotates to the bench with young Irishman Ruiadhri Murphy starting. Fotu Auelua debuts at number 8, pushing Ben Mowan to blindside while Michael Hooper reclaims his openside berth from the benched Ita Vaea. In the backs fly half Michael Coleman has recovered from his round 1 groin injury to take a bench spot.

Ex-Rebel, Crusader and All Black Greg Somerville was asked to come out of retirement for the Rebels this week to back up Rodney Blake but declined. The Rebels do field an unchanged backline for the first time this season, with Cipriani, O'Connor and Beale all present, while ex-Brumbie Mark Gerrard starts on the wing against his old side. A couple of tweaks in the pack see Ged Robinson start at hooker and ex-Bath flanker Michael Lipman is benched.

It's hard to see any improvement in the Rebels pack this week, and winning in Canberra is never easy. Brumbies by 10.

Cheetahs vs Chiefs, Free State Stadium Bloemfontein
The somewhat resurgent Cheetahs face New Zealand Conference leaders the Chiefs this week. The Chiefs are on a 5 match winning streak which will be tested by the Cheetahs, who are living up to their name by playing a fast brand of rugby. The teams have played each other five times in the competition's history, with Chiefs having won three (twice by just two points) and the other two matches drawn. The Cheetahs though picked up a couple of wins on their tour down-under as well as beating the Lions last week.

For the Cheetahs Sias Ebersohn starts at fly half, though Johan Goosen has recovered enough from the shoulder injury he suffered last week to take a bench spot. Wasps-bound Ashley Johnson drops to the bench with Justin Downey back in the back row. Look out for prop Coenie Oosthuizen who is pushing hard for a Springboks berth.

There are a handful of changes for the Chiefs this week, with Hika Elliot edging out Mahroni Schwalger to start at hooker, Andrew Horrell starting ahead of Robbie Robinson at fullback and Alex Bradley debuting at 8. Their inside backs unit of Tawera-Barlow, Cruden, Williams and Kahui will be a key.

This match should be a good tight one, the bookies are favouring the Chiefs narrowly, but it wouldn't surprise me if both teams earned 4-try bonus points. Chiefs by 2.


Lions vs Bulls, Ellis Park Johannesburg
The in-form Bulls travel to the struggling Lions for a good old fashioned Highveldt derby. Sadly the Lions' horror run of injuries mean it's hard to see them challenging this week.

John Mitchell has again rung the changes for the Lions, six in all. Springbok prop CJ Van der Linde returns from injury to the bench, offering cover on both sides of the scrum. Jaco Taute switches from fullback to centre again this week with Butch James on the bench to back up Elton Jantjes.

The Bulls by contrast have only two changes to the starting fifteen that beat the Crusaders. Flip van der Merwe is rested, with Wilhelm Steenkamp starting and Dewald Potgeiter returning to the bench after injury. JJ Engelbrecht earns his first start at 13.

Bulls by 7.

Bye: Highlanders, Hurricanes, Reds

I have two results I expect to go the other way, albeit still very close matches.

Waratahs over the Force and cheetahs to take out the chiefs.

Blues
Waratahs
Crusaders
Brumbies
Cheetahs
Bulls

I think you underestimate the Blues. Blues by 10 , Brumbies and Bulls by a lot more, all else seems quite sensible even the Stormers losing

The sharks are gojg to be up for this in no uncertain terms, they will be angry, frustrated and disspapointed about their pathetic performance against the hurricanes, they also know that if they lose this match they can kiss their chances goodbye to qualify.

John Plumtree will have worked on their discipline on attack and they will no doubt be more patient this weekend on attack and Lambie is going to be a big catalyst this weekend.

There are two big factors that made the hurricanes beat the sharks by so many.

They scored their tries from counter attack everytime the sharks made errors, that won't happen against the blues.

Michalck twice made the wrong decision inside the Hurricanes 22 by going into the defensive line himself rather than offloading or looking for a support runner.

Lambie's decision making and ability to find the gap is going to make a difference.

Sharks supporter?

No mate, I don't support any specific team in SA, Many moons ago I was a Lions Supporter, then it all wnet to hell about 14 years ago and out of loyalty I won't change my allegiance, but doesn't support them anymore. My feelings for them or more sympathy than anything else.

I thought you guys might enjoy reading this, a little too complimentary, but I like the guy's writing style.

As a Bulls supporter, one tends to find that withholding praise from the Stormers is something that comes a little too naturally.

Simnikiwe Xabanisa, The Times

It’s one of those things that can only be ingrained into the psyche of someone who embarrassingly knows the lyrics to Die Blou Bul.

So when the Stormers beat the Hurricanes, the Blues, the Sharks and the Bulls, I came up with all kinds of excuses ranging from home advantage to being lucky in compiling that sequence of results.

But having watched them repel the impressive Highlanders – after a brutal encounter against the Bulls the week before, and a journey to the end of the Earth (Dunedin) – I have to admit that it will take one hell of a team to stop them winning the title this time around.

Sure, they’ll lose games to inferior teams when Super rugby’s terrible twins – injury and a dip in form – strike.

But make no mistake, when it is time to decide this year’s winner, their’s should be the casting vote.

The greater rugby populace has bemoaned their apparent disinterest in worshipping at the temple of bonus points in their unbeaten run.

But the Stormers already boast traits that tend to define winning teams: an ability to win close games; that seamless but elusive mix between the young and the experienced; and a nigh-impregnable defence.

Those qualities were exhibit A in their 21-6 shut-out of the Highlanders in Dunedin.

Despite fielding no less than four players of 21 and under (Steven Kitshoff, Frans Malherbe, Eben Etzebeth and Siya Kolisi) in their starting pack, they appeared to be the more hard-nosed side against what has been an aggressive Highlanders eight.

Hooker Tiaan Liebenberg, lock Andries Bekker and No8 Duane Vermeulen were responsible for that edge.

Liebenberg was an incongruous mix of cheek and toughness, Bekker all determination, and Vermeulen jaw-dropping power.

With those three leading the way, Kitshoff and Malherbe, who propped up the Western Province Craven Week scrum of 2009, looked at home against the Highlanders’ seasoned frontrowers.

SUPER STRONG ETZEBETH

Lock Etzebeth, who is apparently so naturally strong that the Stormers conditioning coach had to buy extra-heavy dumb-bells to push him, carried on where he left off, throwing that considerable frame about with little regard for his safety.

Ditto flanker Kolisi, who appears not to be happy unless he has tackled the man and his shadow.

As a result, the Highlanders’ designated ball carriers, Adam Thomson and Nasi Manu, found themselves generating go-forward at the rate of glaciers.

At halfback, Peter Grant was as physical and incisive as Dewaldt Duvenage was intelligent.

But it was at inside centre that the tone was set for a lot of what the Stormers did. Jean de Villiers leads by example, good humour and common sense.

While at the heart of leading the execution of the Stormers’ complicated up and in defence, he also found time to congratulate the seemingly unlikeable Jimmy Cowan on making his 100th appearance for the opposition.

One also has to make a special mention of the oft-maligned Bryan Habana, a man who moves mountains, while his critics are only prepared to judge him on how many tries he scores.

Of course, fullback Joe Pietersen’s individual performance stole the show.

Once called Percy (as in Montgomery) because he idolised him and kind of looks like him, it’s interesting how his career has mirrored the great Springbok’s in a way.

Pietersen has gone from flaky to being relied on to doing everything from the kicking to the try-scoring, and even the odd try-saving tackle.

A bit like the Stormers at the moment.

I am utterly useless at these friday morning prediction exercises,I've got nothin, I could see the Crusaders/Stormers and Blues/Sharks games going either way,and in 48 hours time I could look like a complete idiot.

Does Jimmy Cowan must owe Simnikiwe Xabnisa money?

Crusaders at home is a different story though. I can't go past them there. They'll have analysed the Stormers to bits and the only problem is whether they're over their SA trip. But Stormers have taken a beating as well lately so they'll both have to dig deep.

I think the saders backs will finally find some cracks in this seemingly impenetrable armour.

Blues...who knows...wouldnt surprise me if they won by 40 theyre that teed off.

Biltong if "angry, frustrated and disapointed about their pathetic performance" describes the Bulls, then we'll need to invent more adjectives for the Blues such is the feeling around here.

The Chiefs actually have the best defensive record of the comp in terms of tries against -6- so Wayne Smith's presence is certainly coming through so Cheetahs wont have it all their on way on attack, but theyre a very good side regardless.

Fun match of the round I reckon...

Stormers Saders the obvious heavyweight match with all OZ non Reds domestics the remaining.

My second favourite referee Steve Walsh in this one.

The Western Force are playing today as well. Kind of looking forward to it. Last weeks match against Otago was pretty close.

The Blues aren't looking bad at all. They just need to stop these intercept passes.

The Sharks are missing Bismarck at the breakdown, and now the penalties are starting to rack up against the Sharks again.

Blues coming back. 15-13 HT.

Don't ask me about tipping in this comp. I've gone from 2nd to 19th like a rock thrown off a cliff.

Shheesh... even Biltong is ahead of me on the SG log!

But since you insist I went for

Blues
Tahs
Stormers
Brumbies
Chiefs
Bulls

Linebreaker wrote:Blues coming back. 15-13 HT.

Don't ask me about tipping in this comp. I've gone from 2nd to 19th like a rock thrown off a cliff.

Shheesh... even Biltong is ahead of me on the SG log!

Not much of an achievement though, I am just 1 above you.

Don't worry mate... we'll finish with a wet sail.

Or in your case - a herd of thirsty rhinos heading towards the muddy pond.

Hopefully the Sharks can pull off this one, but they always seem to lose there momentum later in the game. I think the Blues will end up winning this one and they probably will deny the Sharks a bonus point too.

The Sharks cannot be more unlucky, first try of the Blues comes from a penalty the blues get in a scrum that Woodcock goes on his knees, then in the second half the blues don't take the hit in a scum and the sharks concede a try when the ball is loose.

You ain't going to win matches when this sort of thing happens.

Linebreaker wrote:

Don't worry mate... we'll finish with a wet sail.

Or in your case - a herd of thirsty rhinos heading towards the muddy pond.

I bloody hope so mate, my predictions have been poor.

Sharks with 2 quick tries. It's going to be one of those games I feel.

Another mistake from Walsh. Try from a knock on. 29-20

The sharks got one back from Walsh.

Hmm, seems like I will not be able to finish this game on the television. Will have to read the feed now from supersport and watch the highlights later. Hope the Sharks can hang on.

Seems like the Sharks pulled off a victory on the road. 23 -29

I eat my words ...

biltongbek wrote:No mate, I don't support any specific team in SA, Many moons ago I was a Lions Supporter, then it all wnet to hell about 14 years ago and out of loyalty I won't change my allegiance, but doesn't support them anymore. My feelings for them or more sympathy than anything else.

Many condolences

So I was a little off on the margin - at least I rounded it down to 7 points for the SG. And I see Biltong got the 6 point margin bang on

Off to another great start.

0/1

Well guys, I guess I'm gonna have to switch codes for a couple of hours.

Kiwireddevil wrote:So I was a little off on the margin - at least I rounded it down to 7 points for the SG. And I see Biltong got the 6 point margin bang on

I need all the luck I can get this weekend, my predictions have been way off this tournament.

I am now 15th my highest position yet this tournament, bet you after the next game, I drop back to 19th.

Anyone got the latest score in the Western Force match?

17-8 to the Waratahs after 52 minutes.

Text scoring link:
http://rugbymatchcentre.nzherald.co.nz/default.aspx?s=home&cid=48&mid=2476

23-18 Waratahs, 2 mins left

Kiwireddevil wrote:23-18 Waratahs, 2 mins left

And that's the final score. 'Tahs win by 5

In Auckland we're still singing the Blues.

Apart from the obvious did anyone else out there think that Auckland played a lot better?

Oh and also congratulations to the Plumtree and the Sharks,one of the most underated aspects of rugby is that you take any opportunity when they arise and argue about the merits of it later.

aucklandlaurie wrote: Oh and also congratulations to the Plumtree and the Sharks,one of the most underated aspects of rugby is that you take any opportunity when they arise and argue about the merits of it later.

Too true...
4 very good sides keeping SA in good stead.

Me thinks the stormers are going down today, they need to keep in touch on the scoreboard.

Jean de Villiers will hopefully create something today, I can't remember the last time he offloaded to a player in space.

Stormers will have to play the possession game today and not kick it to the crusaders, Crusaders will once again show patience in attack and just build conitnuously until there gaps open up.

The stormers need to realise they are not going to keep the Crusaders out, even if their defensive patterns and organisation is up to par, they will have to score 30 points themselves.

My prediction is the winner in this match will be the team to host the Super XV final.

So now you've put the mockers on them both, eh?

I reckon it will be the Bulls v Sharks

The Bulls has a very tough overseas tour.REBELS, WARATAHS, HIGHLANDERS, CHIEFS

Can't see them doing too well on their road trip.

The way the Stormers are pinged for being offside with their defence makes me think Todd Blackadder had a whisper in Chris Pollock's ear.

I often wonder how much influence the media, coaches etc have by "pointing" to the way teams play.

The stormers haven't been pinged for their defensive line being offside once until this match now there has been three kickable penalties for it.

This is once again an example of SA teams not adapting, after the first penalty where Pollock pinged them for the defensive line being offside someone in the tea muct communicate the threst that they are being watched.

And yet noone does.

just wondering how long till they see a yellow for offside

Geez that was brilliant defence from that scrum

Fantastic try to the Stormers. That came off a Crusader's shoulder didn't it?

Oh yeah, it went forward.

Wow, great try to the stormers! Hullo, is this a yellow? Yup, at least the ref is consistent.

That's harsh yellows both ways now

That should be the game for the Crusaders.

Most enjoyable contest though.