Super XV Week 11 Preview

Updated preview including Crusaders and Highlanders team info: http://www.v2journal.com/super-xv-2012-preview-round-11.html

Points Table

Spoiler:

The top six teams have now opened something of a gap over the field with the sixth place Crusaders 6 points ahead of the Sharks in seventh. There is still plenty of time for change at the top however. The Waratahs and Reds are lurking should the Brumbies stumble in the race for the guaranteed Australian berth; the Bulls are level on points with the Stormers and can chase a home playoff, though they still have an Australasian tour ahead of them. The Crusaders have five home games left out of their remaining seven matches so they are nicely poised for a strong run in. The competition takes a break for the June Internationals which could also have an impact on teams' momentum.


Matches

Hurricanes vs Blues - Westpac Stadium, Wellington
The Hurricanes' good early season form has tailed off after losses to the Crusaders and Chiefs in their last two matches. They desperately need a win at home over the struggling Blues to try to get back into the playoffs' race. The playoffs are a pipe dream for the Blues after seven straight losses, but the players still have All Blacks' spots to aim for if they can string some performances together in May.

Mark Hammett has opted to retain the starting fifteen from last week’s loss to the Chiefs, with no new injuries incurred and only Brad Shields back on the bench off the long-term injured list. The ‘Canes should be able to attack the Blues’ lineout which malfunctioned last week

The Blues have axed 20 year old first five-eighth Gareth Anscombe for this week, with Michael Hobbs earning his first start since returning early from the Blues’ South African tour to attend the funeral of his father Jock Hobbs. Lachie Munro returns to the bench after a few weeks on the outer. Rudi Wolf has a shoulder injury so Rene Ranger moves out to the right wing and Benson Stanley returns at centre. In the forwards Tevita Meilau replaces the injured Tony Woodcock while skipper Luke Braid shifts from blindside to openside, pushing older brother Daniel to the bench. Keven Mealamu is still injured, while a lack of fit locks means Ali Williams is retained despite having a poor game last week.

After showing promise against the Highlanders two weeks ago, the Blues were clueless last week. Unless Weepu and Nonu can really spark against their old team I can see a hiding coming their way. Hurricanes by 15.


Rebels vs Bulls - AAMI Stadium, Melbourne
The Bulls open their Australasian tour in Melbourne knowing that a win with a four-try bonus point will guarantee them a spot in the top 2 on the table, as the Stormers will score 4 points for the bye this weekend. The Rebels are locked in a battle with the Force for the Australian conference wooden spoon, and will be scrambling to get their third win of the season.

The Rebels released Danny Cipriani this week and with James O’Connor out for at least a month Kurtley Beale starts at fly half. Lachlan Mitchell plays 12, Mitch Inman is back from injury at 13 while Julian Huxley fills Beale’s fullback berth. Veteran Stirling Mortlock has been battling knee problems but makes a welcome return to the bench this week for what could be his first appearance of the season. Injury concerns see Luke Jones and Tim Davidson start on the flanks while Cadeyrn Neville come in at lock.

The Bulls welcome Flip van Merwe, Dean Greyling and Willie Wepener back from injury layoffs this week, and they join the playing 22 as lock, prop and reserve hooker respectively. Gerrit-Jan van Velze, Dawie Steyn and Bongo Mbonambi drop out of the 22. The Bulls played very well at home against the Brumbies last week before going to sleep and almost squandering a massive lead, they will be looking for an 80-minute performance this week.

The Rebels are probably in for a battering up front this week; the Bulls steamroller should have far too much power. Bulls by 10.


Chiefs vs Lions - Growers Stadium, Pukekohe
John Mitchell’s Lions arrive in Counties-Manakau with their coach still bullish about the team’s playoff chances. They face a rampant Chiefs side looking to win their 9th match in a row to maintain top spot on the competition ladder.

The Chiefs have lost Liam Messam to a rib injury so they have opted for two opensides in Tanerau Latimer and Sam Cane, while Kane Thompson returns at 8. Prop Toby Smith returns to the starting lineup while Calum Retallick is rested. The starting backline is unchanged though Tawera Kerr-Barlow returns to the bench after injury.
Once again Mitchell has rung the changes for the Lions. Ross Cronje replaces Tian Meyer at scrumhalf; Grant Hattingh and Derick Minnie start on the flanks and Franco van der Merwe starts at lock.

It is good to see the Chiefs sharing matches around the region, they have already played a match in Tauranga this season, and it reflects how well the current management team have melded the diverse playing styles of Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Counties-Manakau.

I cannott see the Chiefs having any mercy on their former captain John Mitchell. Chiefs by 12.


Brumbies vs Waratahs - Canberra Stadium, Canberra
The Brumbies host the Waratahs in a match that will go a long way towards deciding the Australian conference. A will for the Brumbies will deal a severe blow to the 'Tahs playoffs hopes.
Jake White welcomes his captain and blindside flanker Ben Mowan and tighthead Dan Palmer back to the starting lineup after a week off, while lock Sam Carter is promoted to start. The backline, which performed well in South Africa, is unchanged.

Ex-Brumbie Sitaleki Timani is promoted to start at lock for the Waratahs this week, with Dean Mumm dropping to the bench. There is still no room in the starting line up for another ex-Brumbie Rocky Elsom, but Adam Ashley-Cooper will be attacking his old team mates from the back.

Canberra is fast becoming a tough place to visit again this season, and I fancy Jake White’s men to edge this one. Brumbies by 2.


Sharks vs Highlanders - Kings Park, Durban
The Highlanders arrive in Durban with a seven point and two place lead over their opponents, but they will be very aware of the Crusaders breathing down their necks too. This is a must-win for the Sharks who have performed below pre-season expectations thus far.

Jannie du Plessis is doubtful for the Sharks this week after taking a knock against the Chiefs. On a more positive note Tendai 'Beast' Mtawarira makes his first start of the season for the Sharks this week after recovering from an ankle injury while Ryan Kankowski is also back, and on the bench. In the backs JP Pietersen moves out to the wing with Paul Jordaan getting a start.

The Highlanders’ side is still to be named at time of writing, but they will be without suspended England flanker James Haskell.

The Sharks have won the last five matches between these two sides, but I think it will be a very close match, my tip for match of the round. I will go with the home advantage, Sharks by 2.


Cheetahs vs Western Force - Free State Stadium, Bloemfontein
The Coach-less Force begin their South African tour at altitude this week, and badly need a result after the players forced Richard Graham onto gardening leave following the announcement of his move to the Reds next season. With the South African franchises looking nervously around to see if one of them will be cut from the competition in favour of the Southern Kings next season a win for the Cheetahs could push them well clear of the Lions on the table.

The home side have lost promising young flyhalf Johan Goosen for the season, so Sias Ebersohn starts in the 10 jersey this week. Lock George Earle returns to bolster the lineout after being rested last week.

The Force team had not been named at time off writing, but look out for the battle at the breakdown between David Pocock and Heinrich Brussow.

The Cheetah’s defence has been a bit “leaky” in recent weeks, however at home they should be too strong for the Force. Cheetahs by 7.


Crusaders vs Reds - Rugby League Park, Christchurch
Sadly the Red’s injury woes this season have rather taken the sting out of the reprise of last year’s final. The Crusaders are currently sitting sixthth on the table and looking good for a strong run-in to the playoffs.
There is no team information out for the Crusaders but it is likely that Richie McCaw will come off the bench again, and with Tom Taylor kicking 92% of his goals so far this season Todd Blackadder is not going to tinker with a winning formula unless Steve Hansen insists that Dan Carter get game time at 10 instead of 12.

Will Genia may well be fired up for the Reds after turning down the massive pay rise offered for him to move to Perth. Anthony Faingaa is fit enough to start at centre, allowing Digby Ioane to return to the wing. Faingaa’s twin Saia is back from injury as reserve hooker too. However the Red are not out of the injury woods just yet, losing prop Ben Daley and blindside Beau Robinson. Out of favour Wallaby number 8 Radike Samo is back on the bench though.

Expect the Crusaders to dish out a little revenge this week. Crusaders by at least 15.

Bye
Stormers

I cannott see the Chiefs having any mercy on their former captain John Mitchell.... Chiefs by 12.

Huh?
12 points at home- top team on a roll vs second bottom is not having mercy?

Other than that pretty fair...

Chiefs are going to slaughter the Lions.

I have totally fallen out of the race on Sportsguru, don't even know why I still predict.

Maybe the Brumbies can wina game this weekend without any controversy?

Updated preview including Crusaders and Highlanders team info: http://www.v2journal.com/super-xv-2012-preview-round-11.html

(And yes I've altered the Chiefs prediction slightly on the Journal)

16-12 to the Canes at HT, tries to Conrad Smith & Andre Taylor.

Hurricanes have the 4 try bonus point, leading 28-19 with 2 minutes left. If Beauden Barrett had landed his goals they'd be ahead by miles.

A try in the last minute to the 'Canes courtesy of a Blues error (their fullback took a mark, then passed to nobody), final score 35-19.

I know this could be interpreted as disrespectful to the Hurricanes effort tonight,but that Blues performance was pathetic, utterly pathetic.

Hell, for the first time this season I have predicted a score accurately.

Can’t wait to see the highlights at some point over the weekend....great win for us, puts us back in the hunt for a finals spot. Now, tell me that we’d be in this position before the start of the season, I’d have slapped you upside the head and told you to bugger off back to the Hammett camp. But by god, we are witnessing a miracle of sorts. We’re lacking a solid platform up front but we’re effectively playing kids in the front row. These kids will mature in 1,2,3 years and suddenly we’ll have a great pack. Our backline is seriously on fire and we’ve finally got it.....a work ethic and a burning desire to play for each other.

Hammett, you’re officially a geniuis. I may not have been kind to you previously, but you have started a miracle and I applaud you.

With our two young’uns running the show at 9 and 10, we’re looking at the formation of a *whisper it quietly* potential championship team.....

As an aside, NZ stocks at Flyhalf and Halfback have seldom been richer

10 – Carter, Cruden, Barrett, Taylor
9 – Ellis, Perenara, Smith, Kerr-Barlow, Weepu

chewed_mintie wrote:Can’t wait to see the highlights at some point over the weekend....great win for us, puts us back in the hunt for a finals spot. Now, tell me that we’d be in this position before the start of the season, I’d have slapped you upside the head and told you to bugger off back to the Hammett camp. But by god, we are witnessing a miracle of sorts. We’re lacking a solid platform up front but we’re effectively playing kids in the front row. These kids will mature in 1,2,3 years and suddenly we’ll have a great pack. Our backline is seriously on fire and we’ve finally got it.....a work ethic and a burning desire to play for each other.

Hammett, you’re officially a geniuis. I may not have been kind to you previously, but you have started a miracle and I applaud you.

With our two young’uns running the show at 9 and 10, we’re looking at the formation of a *whisper it quietly* potential championship team.....

As an aside, NZ stocks at Flyhalf and Halfback have seldom been richer

10 – Carter, Cruden, Barrett, Taylor
9 – Ellis, Perenara, Smith, Kerr-Barlow, Weepu

Indeed. Now we just need to replace Thorn & Kaino and decide on who's backing up McCaw.

Defences in the Rebels vs Buls game is non existent .

Two tries for the rebels by just going round the fringes of the ruck.

Very poor by the Bulls.

Mintie
I dont know whether you guys have heard this,But last week there were talks between Hammett and Weepu,initiated by Weepu.
Someone told someone that they wanted to go back to Wellington,and someone told someone that if they did come back that they might have to spend time on the bench because Wellington have a very good no1 halfback at the moment.

Yeah, the Blues were atrocious tonight. Dropped ball, mistimed runs, miscommunication, you name it, they had it. Does Nonu ever use his arms in a tackle? How come he never gets pinged for it?

Rebels in with a sniff at half time. It's a meat-pie fest.

biltong
I thought the miss on Beale and cooper Vuna was worse.but hey.

If Digby got 5 weeks for his tackle, Jones will get 5 years for that.

aucklandlaurie wrote: biltong
I thought the miss on Beale and cooper Vuna was worse.but hey.

Yeah those tackles were very poor, but I was actually thinking about the pathetic defensive organisation by the Bulls close to the ruck, there was HHHHHhuuuge gaps.

Laurie, yep read that and I’d welcome Weepu back in an instant. I think he needed this ‘break’ to put things into perspective really, although that does no favour to Auckland but hey after dominating the first 100 years of NZ rugby it’s about time they savour the other side!

However, it’s clear to all that Perenara is on the rise. He played his first game for the Lions about 2-3 years ago while he was still at school, I think it was the NPC semi final v Canterbury and he stood out. I trumpeted him after that game on the old 606 board as an AB for the future. Weepu recognises that and I think tonights display (after reading the reports) will confirm that in Weepu’s mind. But Wellington is his home and I know how close he is to his family and the wider community in Wainui. He’s still got a service to the NZ game, the NRL option will have all but fizzled out – though it wouldn’t surprise me to see him in the colours of Wainui RL before he retires – and he could play a part in establishing Perenara as the top HB in NZ.

Credit to Hammett here. He has recognised the problems within the system, removed them, changed the culture and systems and kept the players who have bought into his philosophy and started again. The other thing is he didn’t shut the door on the players who were removed.

The result is a work in progress but watch out when it comes to fruition.

Can anyone answer this, Vuna is on the ground of the ruck, then plays the ball whilst on the ground and rolls over to then score a try.

Is that legal?

biltongbek wrote:Can anyone answer this, Vuna is on the ground of the ruck, then plays the ball whilst on the ground and rolls over to then score a try.

Is that legal?

Based on what you've described, no.

PS, what's the score?

41-35

Biltong
But wasnt the ball already over the line at that point?I didnt see anything untoward.

Not when he went into the ruck, no.

The ruck took place 1 metre from the tryline. Vuna went into the ruck on his feet, by the time he went down he still hadn't picked up the ball and then when he was on his back he grabbed the ball with assistance from Phipps, then rolled over and scored.

If you look at Mortlock, he came from the right hand side of the ruck, totally outside the gate to block as well.

Doesn't matter the game is over and the Bulls won. But in my view tere are three things wrong in that ruck.

Vuna is off his feet when he plays the ball.
Vuna is in fact in front of the bal when he plays it
Mortlock doesn't come thorugh the gate and is in a blocking position.

I'll have to have another look at it,as I said before I thought that the ball was already over the line and Mortlock was in front of the ball which is fine,as he is "in goal".

How was Beale at 10? I've always thought he could be another Cooper but can actually tackle as well. Judging by the number of tries scored he can't have been too bad so could he rotate with O'Connor?

Yappy to be honest, I think if Beale is given enough time at ten, he will be a better all round fly half than Cooper.

Today he distributed well, ran good lines, did little chip kicks and varied his play very well.

biltongbek wrote:Yappy to be honest, I think if Beale is given enough time at ten, he will be a better all round fly half than Cooper.

Today he distributed well, ran good lines, did little chip kicks and varied his play very well.

He kicked all his conversions too (I don't know if he missed any penalties)

Yeah, can't remember that he missed any either.

Christ. That's just what we want, Australia to be able to play a backline where eventually any player could move to 10. Beale, Cooper, JOC, Barnes, eventually the whole team from 9-15 will just wear a shirt than says "Back"

How does Australia produce so many extraordinarily talented backs with such a crap infrastructure?

As a neanderthal NH supporter is boggles my mind!

Chequered, as you say it'll just be a backline of 10's and Ione soon with all of them passing to him all the time.

yappysnap wrote:How does Australia produce so many extraordinarily talented backs with such a crap infrastructure?

As a neanderthal NH supporter is boggles my mind!

Chequered, as you say it'll just be a backline of 10's and Ione soon with all of them passing to him all the time.

And Ioane played centre last week. He might have his eye on playing 10 too - moving in one spot at a time

I know Pocock has been practicing the kicking part of his game too.

So just two props and 10's everywhere else then? Interesting... And all because Cooper can't kick?

yappysnap wrote:So just two props and 10's everywhere else then? Interesting... And all because Cooper can't kick?

Yep, that is pretty much it.

Since when have Australia had two props?

They don't have two, they just call them props on account of the fact that they can't play fly half.

They're really overweight fly halves who can still kick drop goals, Dunning was one of the greats, Andy Goode modeled himself on the great Dunning his whole career.

Leave our pies with legs alone!

last night the chiefs bumbled home with a 34 - 21 victory over john Mitchell and Carlos Spencers' Lions, at Pukekohe stadium which in terms of mileage is closer to Auckland than the Chiefs HQ of hamilton.both less than an hours drive.

To just show the depths to which the Auckland Blues have dropped in the eye of the inhabitants of New Zealands biggest city,There was a bigger crowd at Pukekohe stadium,a ground with one tatty 40 year old grandstand playing a team from the inner depths of South Africa,as opposed to the Blues a week ago,playing the current Super rugby champions at NZ rugby's mecca Eden Park.

Besides watching the Crusaders scratch to 15-11 win over the Reds,it became obvious that Dan Carter wont be playing any games against ireland if he cant even take penalty kicks for touch on the right hand side of the field.

Full Credit wrote:If Digby got 5 weeks for his tackle, Jones will get 5 years for that.

Jones got 2 weeks,4 weeks reduced to 2,due to clean record,early guilty plea,and showing immediate concern for the uninjured Basson.

Apparently it was the 6th citing for a tip tackle in this years Super xv.