Super XV Week 8 Preview

First topic message reminder :

http://www.v2journal.com/super-xv-2012-preview-round-8.html

We are now over a third of the way through the 2012 Super XV Round-Robin phase and in this post-Rugby World Cup season a few things are becoming abundantly clear:
-Australia currently does not have enough depth to sustain five Super Rugby teams. No Australian team has won outside of Australia this season and in 8 games played in Australia by visiting teams from New Zealand or South Africa the score is 4-4.
-Injury rates have soared in the early season. Few teams have escaped the carnage with the Lions and Reds notably the worst hit.
-Defence is king. Very few teams are picking up four-try bonus points, and around 70% of matches are being decided by 7 points or less.



Australian Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Brumbies	6	3	3	0	1	137	144	-7	3	19
2	Reds	7	4	3	0	0	140	193	-53	1	17
3	Waratahs	6	2	4	0	1	140	143	-3	5	17
4	Rebels	6	2	4	0	1	127	174	-47	2	14
5	Western Force	7	2	5	0	0	163	189	-26	4	12

New Zealand Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Chiefs	6	5	1	0	1	151	103	48	2	26
2	Highlanders	7	5	2	0	0	162	143	19	2	22
3	Hurricanes	7	4	3	0	0	225	195	30	5	21
4	Crusaders	6	3	3	0	1	143	135	8	3	19
5	Blues	6	1	5	0	1	126	158	-32	2	10

South African Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Stormers	6	6	0	0	1	146	97	49	0	28
2	Bulls	6	4	2	0	1	202	119	83	4	24
3	Sharks	7	3	4	0	0	161	177	-16	5	17
4	Cheetahs	7	3	4	0	0	194	199	-5	4	16
5	Lions	6	1	5	0	1	112	160	-48	2	10

Matches
Blues vs Sharks, Eden Park
It’s tough being a Blues supporter at the moment whether you hail from Cardiff or Auckland. The once high-flying New Zealand franchise is currently languishing at the bottom of the competition, and this week has seen cracks showing in the squad. Skipper Keven Mealamu publically criticised fellow All Black Piri Weepu’s weight, poor fitness and commitment. Weepu in response acknowledged “celebrating” the Rugby World Cup win in the off-season, and losing focus after achieving a goal he had focused on for eight years. Meanwhile Coach Pat Lam broke down twice in a press conference expressing his anger and distress at the racist overtones expressed on talkback radio and internet message boards as a result of the Blues’ poor performances. The Sharks come to Auckland after conceding 6 tries in a loss to the Hurricanes last week that sees them sitting 9th on the table, well behind the Stormers and Bulls in the South African conference, and badly in need of a win.

The Blues welcome the Braid brothers back on the flanks this week, while Ali Williams is given a rest and sits on the bench. Piri Weepu played club rugby in Wellington last Sunday but remains on the bench covering Albie Mathewson and Gareth Anscombe at 9 and 10. Benson Stanley joins Ma’a Nonu in the centres with Rene Ranger on the wing.

For the Sharks Patrick Lambie has recovered after missing two matches with a dental injury and he starts at 10 with Frederic Michalak dropping to a 5-2 forwards/backs bench. Bismark du Plessis has been ruled out after originally being named to start while Willem Albert rotates to the bench allowing Jean Deysel his first start of the season.

I tipped the Blues to come good on their last outing, now with their season all but ruined and their backs to the wall I don't think they can pull off a win. Though that's often when they surprise you. Sharks by 10.


Force vs Waratahs, nib Stadium
The Waratahs come off the bye and travel to Perth to take on the Force, who lost to the Chiefs last week. Both teams are desperately in need of a win, the Force to push themselves past the Rebels at the foot of the Australian conference, while the 10th placed Waratahs are only 2 points behind Brumbies who currently hold a playoffs berth as Australian Conference leaders. They are also currently level with the Reds who will earn 4 points for the bye this week.

The Force have only one change to their 22 this week, with Cameron Shepherd back from injury to take a bench spot in place of the injured Samu Wara, with Rory Sidey promoted to a starting berth on the wing. Once again David Pocock and halfback Brett Sheehan are the key players.

Meanwhile the Waratahs have the luxury of fielding an unchanged 22 from two weeks ago. Prop Benn Robinson retains the captaincy while Berrick Barnes and Scotsman Brendan McKibbin hold the 10 and 9 jerseys ahead of Daniel Halangahu and Sarel Pretorius. The 'Tah's backline has Adam Ashley-Cooper out on the wing with Rob Horne at centre which may be a slight waste of Ashley-Cooper's talent.

This one could go either way, but the Force are very strong at home. Force by 4.


Crusaders vs Stormers- Rugby League Park, Christchurch
The Crusaders return home from a relatively successful South African tour fuming at the dismissed eye-gouge allegations against them as well as the narrow loss in a match against the Bulls that they at half time. They face a still unbeaten Stormers who dispatched the Highlanders in Dunedin who will be focusing on attacking the seven-times champions in the set piece and at the breakdown.

The Crusaders initially hoped Richie McCaw would be fit to play but while he is back running he is still three or four weeks off playing. He has however ruled out an Italian sabbatical in the Pro12 next season. Todd Blackadder has sprung a surprise this week selecting the world's best first five-eighth Dan Carter at second five-eighth outside Tom Taylor with Ryan Crotty dropping to the bench. The regular front row rotation sees Ben Franks start ahead of brother Owen at tighthead, while Tom Donnelly returns to the starting pack at lock. Israel Dagg at full back will be looking to atone after a self-confessed "shocker" last week.

Allister Coetzee has tweaked the Stormers team for this week, with Brok Harris starting at tighthead prop and Frans Malherbe rotating to the bench. Gio Aplon’s injury means he is ruled out giving former Bull Gerhard van den Heever a start on the right wing, and Nizaam Carr replaces Nick Koster on the bench. Look out for Joe Pietersen who had a superb game at fullback last week, bagging a brilliant solo try along the way, though he loses the kicking duties to Peter Grant.

This is my tip for match of the round, and it should be close. The Crusaders let their game plan drift in the middle stages last week, if they can tighten that up then home ground advantage should hand the Stormers their first loss of the season. Crusaders by 5.


Brumbies vs Rebels, Canberra Stadium Canberra
Surprise Australian table-toppers the Brumbies host the struggling Rebels this week. Jake White has followed the old Brumbies tradition of converting other states' rejects into successes so far this season, while the Rebels' collection of flashy, impressive, imported backline stars have struggled behind a weak forward pack.

There are six changes for the Brumbies this week. In the front row Ben Alexander rotates to the bench with young Irishman Ruiadhri Murphy starting. Fotu Auelua debuts at number 8, pushing Ben Mowan to blindside while Michael Hooper reclaims his openside berth from the benched Ita Vaea. In the backs fly half Michael Coleman has recovered from his round 1 groin injury to take a bench spot.

Ex-Rebel, Crusader and All Black Greg Somerville was asked to come out of retirement for the Rebels this week to back up Rodney Blake but declined. The Rebels do field an unchanged backline for the first time this season, with Cipriani, O'Connor and Beale all present, while ex-Brumbie Mark Gerrard starts on the wing against his old side. A couple of tweaks in the pack see Ged Robinson start at hooker and ex-Bath flanker Michael Lipman is benched.

It's hard to see any improvement in the Rebels pack this week, and winning in Canberra is never easy. Brumbies by 10.

Cheetahs vs Chiefs, Free State Stadium Bloemfontein
The somewhat resurgent Cheetahs face New Zealand Conference leaders the Chiefs this week. The Chiefs are on a 5 match winning streak which will be tested by the Cheetahs, who are living up to their name by playing a fast brand of rugby. The teams have played each other five times in the competition's history, with Chiefs having won three (twice by just two points) and the other two matches drawn. The Cheetahs though picked up a couple of wins on their tour down-under as well as beating the Lions last week.

For the Cheetahs Sias Ebersohn starts at fly half, though Johan Goosen has recovered enough from the shoulder injury he suffered last week to take a bench spot. Wasps-bound Ashley Johnson drops to the bench with Justin Downey back in the back row. Look out for prop Coenie Oosthuizen who is pushing hard for a Springboks berth.

There are a handful of changes for the Chiefs this week, with Hika Elliot edging out Mahroni Schwalger to start at hooker, Andrew Horrell starting ahead of Robbie Robinson at fullback and Alex Bradley debuting at 8. Their inside backs unit of Tawera-Barlow, Cruden, Williams and Kahui will be a key.

This match should be a good tight one, the bookies are favouring the Chiefs narrowly, but it wouldn't surprise me if both teams earned 4-try bonus points. Chiefs by 2.


Lions vs Bulls, Ellis Park Johannesburg
The in-form Bulls travel to the struggling Lions for a good old fashioned Highveldt derby. Sadly the Lions' horror run of injuries mean it's hard to see them challenging this week.

John Mitchell has again rung the changes for the Lions, six in all. Springbok prop CJ Van der Linde returns from injury to the bench, offering cover on both sides of the scrum. Jaco Taute switches from fullback to centre again this week with Butch James on the bench to back up Elton Jantjes.

The Bulls by contrast have only two changes to the starting fifteen that beat the Crusaders. Flip van der Merwe is rested, with Wilhelm Steenkamp starting and Dewald Potgeiter returning to the bench after injury. JJ Engelbrecht earns his first start at 13.

Bulls by 7.

Bye: Highlanders, Hurricanes, Reds

Does anyone think that the refs latest decision was a little suspect.

Calls advantage over but Dagg kicks it straight out from a carry back and then decides that advantage was not over.

Due to this the crusaders get a scrum at their 22 rather than the stormers getting a lineout in the same position.

I assume he is a NZ ref.

fa0019 wrote:Does anyone think that the refs latest decision was a little suspect.

Calls advantage over but Dagg kicks it straight out from a carry back and then decides that advantage was not over.

Due to this the crusaders get a scrum at their 22 rather than the stormers getting a lineout in the same position.

I assume he is a NZ ref.

Even the NZ commentators thought that one was harsh.

Just a note to the two commentators here. TJ and Marshall are really good to listen too. They are in my view the two most objective commentators from the Antipodean.

biltongbek wrote:Just a note to the two commentators here. TJ and Marshall are really good to listen too. They are in my view the two most objective commentators from the Antipodean.

Marshall especially is very good at the objective calls.

Jean de Villiers is correct to question Chris Pollock there, he was just penalised for the exact same thing and now all the Stormers get is a scrum

well played saders

I enjoyed that game, at least the stormers got themselves a bonus point.

Congrats Kiwi. Good win for the 'Saders.

Good game, Stormers definitely deserved the BP. Injuries may have cost them the game.

Have to agree... Marshall is top commentator. Reads the game well and picks out things only top class players would.

Refreshing to see a home commentator tell it how it is. Entertaining chap also.... although I have to say there is only one Murray!!!!

The ref was a little poor... too trigger happy on his penalties for both sides and both yellows were over zealous. I wouldn't say it was a nightmare but his impact was far too big.

Well done to the crusaders.... everyone slammed blackadder pre match for his choices but putting Carter to 12 took a little pressure off his return and his play with Taylor was smart.

If the Chiefs lose in Bloemfontein the top 4 in the NZ conference is going to be awfully congested

Taking out bye points (they'll all have had one after this weekend anyway)

Highlanders 22
Chiefs 22 (still to play Cheetahs)
Hurricanes 21
Crusaders 19
...
Blues 7

Kiwi you didn't really want to put the Blues in there did you?

Kiwi
What do the three dots mean between the Crusaders and the Blues? Oh I know daylight at the Southpole in the middle of January.

biltongbek wrote:Kiwi you didn't really want to put the Blues in there did you?

Chalk that one up to inter-provincial rivalry

btw, my "what's wrong with the Blues" piece is almost ready to go

Well done to the Crusaders, they had to fight for that win.I did like the kid holding up the "bring back Brad" sign in the grandstand.

I posted the Aussie commenators' plays of last weekend down on the week 7 roundup, it's a good one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxW4rMsatWI&feature=player_embedded

I loved the Pieterson-Montgomery comparison, at the moment I'd have Pieterson at 15 for the Boks

Well if the Cheetahs manage to beat the Chiefs the SA conference will have a similar look.

Stormers 25
Bulls 24 (They should have the measure of the Lions)
Sharks 22
Cheetahs 20 (if they beat the Chiefs)
.... (Courtesy of Kiwi's method)
Lions 6

aucklandlaurie wrote: Well done to the Crusaders, they had to fight for that win.I did like the kid holding up the "bring back Brad" sign in the grandstand.

I didn't see that, brilliant!

A far cry from the days of the "Carlos blows goats" sign at least

kiwi
I await the "Whats wrong with the Blues" piece embarrassing anticipation,has anyone written an article yet that has taken up the whole of page 1?

biltongbek wrote:Well if the Cheetahs manage to beat the Chiefs the SA conference will have a similar look.

Stormers 25
Bulls 24 (They should have the measure of the Lions)
Sharks 22
Cheetahs 20 (if they beat the Chiefs)
.... (Courtesy of Kiwi's method)
Lions 6

And assuming the Brumbies beat the Rebels by 8+
Brumbies 19
Waratahs 17
Reds 17
Force 13
Rebels 10

Which puts the top Aussie team in 8th= in terms of points scored

Not looking to good for Australia conference at this stage does it?

biltongbek wrote:Not looking to good for Australia conference at this stage does it?

The Brumbies are still to tour SA so will likely drop down, so I think a Tahs vs Reds (Quade Cooper is back soon) scrap for the guranteed 3rd spot, with no-one else making it through.

did you get my email kiwi?

I need the Brumbies to beat the Rebels by 23+

Shame I had to miss the game, sounded like a cracker! Sadly I was holed up studying but managed to get a score feed on my phone.

Well done Crusaders...I wonder if Son of Warwick is another to join the line of next gen AB 10's? And whatever will happen to Bleyendahl now?

I fear these chiefs are ust too physical for the Cheetahs, the cheetahs will have to change tactics, they can't have too many breakdowns.

I have a bit of a question about how the chiefs clear players around the ruck. How mant players and how far from the ruck can you clear?

Nice cameo by Goosen...such a natural player and more importantly for a playmaker & kicker, he has ice in his veins and little fear.

I reckon the Goosen Lambie 10-12 combo is the way to go for Meyer at the next world cup.

Hougaard, Goosen, Mvovo, Lambie, Fioure, JP Pietersen, Frans Steyn

that would be a very positive lineup going into 2012 and could well be the best one as well.

If they're good enough they're old enough.

BOOM!

1st min try..... perhaps this game won't be so one sided after all.

Bulls will come through and win in the end.

Why do New zealand referees make plonkers of themselves by being incapable of grasping the concept that a ball lost forward from the hand,into an opposition player,is in fact a knock on?

Much bigger improvement from the Blues,last week they were last equal,this week,coutesy of a bonus point they have shot up to second to last.

Good to see the Crusaders regain their discipline and not eye gouge the opposition players,the chances of victory were greatly improved.

I put this together on the Blues AL http://www.v2journal.com/more-blues-blues---whats-wrong-in-auckland.html

(there's also a thread https://www.606v2.com/t27706-blues-blues-the-eden-park-version#1136013 but the 1st link has nice pretty formatting and pics.)

aucklandlaurie wrote: Good to see the Crusaders regain their discipline and not eye gouge the opposition players,the chances of victory were greatly improved.

Yep, that was a nice change from them.

Jeez Kiwi have you got any fingers left? that a pretty good effort, I will make some comments on the principal thread,but initially there isnt anything there that is inaccurate.

I could spend days replying to an article like that, so I'll try an contain myself and address only a couple of issues,Bottom Line with club rugby in Auckland,North harbour and the sububan clubs of Counties Manukau this team should be the one of the most dominant provincial rugby franchises in the World,and thats not taking into account the boys in North Auckland.

Missed the chiefs match but seven tries sounds good.

The Chiefs have been the most successful New Zealand team in South Africa over the last couple of years.

I'm watching the Cheetahs v Chiefs game right now. Cracking match, Chiefs attacking game is beyond belief at times, sensational offloading.

Go the chiefs!
Another good game.

The chiefs finally appear to have a solid team right across the park and have lost some of their flakiness (coach related?). They generally have always had a handy backline but the forwards seem to be holding their own, against the teams they've played so far anyway.

Having watched the intensity of running play and support in the chiefs and crusaders games, I can see why the blues are where they're at, they're dire in comparison.