Super XV Week 5 Preview and Live Match Thread

[Pete C (Kiwireddevil)]

After the opening four weeks of the 2012 Super XV 70% of matches have seen a team win by 7 points or less. Only the Highlanders and the Stormers remain unbeaten, and only the Rebels are yet to win a match.

Points table after round 4
Australian Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Reds	4	3	1	0	0	93	74	19	1	13
2	Brumbies	3	2	1	0	1	65	69	4	1	13
3	Waratahs	4	1	3	0	0	93	83	10	4	8
4	Rebels	3	0	3	0	1	51	79	-28	2	6
5	Western Force	4	1	3	0	0	77	120	-43	1	5

New Zealand Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Highlanders	4	4	0	0	0	87	77	10	0	16
2	Chiefs	4	3	1	0	0	101	78	23	2	14
3	Hurricanes	4	2	2	0	0	119	105	14	2	10
4	Crusaders	3	1	2	0	1	62	69	-7	2	10
5	Blues	4	1	3	0	0	78	98	-20	1	5

South African Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Stoprmers	3	3	0	0	1	81	55	26	0	16
2	Bulls	3	2	1	0	1	92	61	31	2	14
3	Sharks	4	2	2	0	0	84	75	9	3	11
4	Lions	3	1	2	0	1	75	87	-12	1	9
5	Cheetahs	4	1	3	0	0	100	128	-28	2	6

Matches
Blues vs Hurricanes
The injury and suspension-hit Blues are currently sitting bottom of the New Zealand conference after a disappointing start to the 2012 season. The Hurricanes have performed better than expected so far; though they will be disappointed to have lost at home to the high-flying Highlanders last week.

For the Blues Isaia Toeava has been diagnosed with a stress fracture in his hip that looks like ending his season. Keven Mealamu (calf-strain), Luke Braid (suspension) and Rene Ranger (suspension) are all out, while Gareth Anscombe (nose fracture) drops to the bench meaning ex-Hurricane Piri Weepu starts at 10 inside Ma’a Nonu. Tony Woodcock is available for the first time this season and wingers David Raikuna and Rudi Wolf return from injury, but the Blues still have 3 Wider Training Group players on their bench.

By contrast the Hurricanes are virtually unchanged from last week, the only change could come at loosehead where Ben May is bracketed with Michael Bent,

Most of the UK bookmakers have the Blues as strong favourites, but personally I would tip the ‘Canes. Though over recent years both teams have been experts of doing the exact opposite of what’s expected of them. Hurricanes by 7.


Rebels vs Western Force
Melbourne sees a battle of the cellar-dwellers this week, the winless 13th placed Rebels host the last placed Force. The Rebels have a very classy backline, but their pack has been found wanting at times this season. A home loss to South African strugglers the Cheetahs last week will have wounded their pride. The Force upset the Waratahs in Sydney at the weekend and they will be keen to notch up another crucial away win in Melbourne.

Kurtley Beale is expected to miss another match for the Rebels with his calf strain, as is Stirling Mortlock, but Sale-bound Danny Cipriani is recovered from the flu and may well start after coming off the bench well at the weekend.

The Force have made two changes to the starting fifteen who beat the Waratahs with winger Nick Cummins returning and prop Pek Cowan rotating to the bench. Skipper David Pocock will be a key for the Force as they seek to starve the Rebels of possession.

Expect this to be a close one. Rebels by 2.


Waratahs vs Sharks
After a slightly disappointing start to the season the highly fancied Sharks find themselves in third in the South African conference as they start their four match Australasian tour in Sydney. The Waratahs will be smarting after their loss at home to the Force last week that leaves them third in the Australian conference, one spot behind the Sharks overall. The Sharks have not won in Sydney since 2000.

The Waratahs have delayed naming their starting side due to a number of injury concerns, but will welcome Wycliff Palu back to the side, and will be captained by prop Benn Robinson as Berrick Barnes is to move into fly half, displacing captain Daniel Halangahu. Brendan McKibbin starts at scrum half ahead of the impressive Sarel Pretorius.

The Sharks have injury concerns in their front row with both their tightheads, Jannie du Plessis and Wiehahn Herbst doubtful forcing them to fly in emergency cover, but du Plessis is named to start. Jandre Marais is rewarded with a start at lock after scoring in last week's win over the Reds. Freddie Michalak stays on the bench, while JP Pietersen is not quite fit enough to return to the playing 22.

On the “if in doubt pick the home team” rule, Waratahs by 5.


Crusaders vs Cheetahs
The Crusaders play their first match at Rugby League Park this weekend, their first match in Christchurch since 2010. After a couple of narrow losses before their bye last week, they need some home points at the expense of the Cheetahs. The Cheetahs managed to pick up their first win of the season in Sydney last week, but have never won a Super Rugby match in New Zealand and lie 2nd-to-last in the competition.

Daniel Carter is back in red and black for the first time this season and will come off the bench, while Israel Dagg moves to fullback after three matches on the wing with Sean Maitland and Zac Guildford on the wings. Tom Taylor moves in to first five eighth in place of the dropped Tyler Blayendaal while Ryan Crotty returns from injury at second five eighth. In the forwards Sam Whitelock returns at lock while his younger brother Sam takes older brother George’s number 6 jersey.

Naka Drotske has tinkered slightly with the side that beat the Waratahs, dropping WP Nel and Davon Raubanheimer. Heinrich Brussow will be a key man for Cheetahs up against Matt Todd.

As long as the Crusaders can overcome the emotions on their return to Christchurch they should win comfortably. Crusaders by 12.


Brumbies vs Highlanders
The unbeaten Highlanders fly to Canberra to take on the Brumbies this week, seeking to stay at the top of the table. The ACT side have picked up a pair of narrow wins at home in the early weeks, but lost to an injury time try in Hamilton last week. Jake White will be happy at sitting second in the Australian conference, given the team’s lack of star names.

The Brumbies have made minor changes to the side that lost to the Chiefs with Sam Carter returning at lock, pushing Peter Kimlin to the blindside flank.

Jimmy Cowan makes his first start of the season for the Highlanders pushing young star Aaron Smith to the bench. Ben Smith returns from injury at fullback, allowing Colin Slade to move up to first five eighth in place of Lima Sopoaga who injured his shoulder last week. James Haskell remains on the bench.

The Brumbies are always tough to beat at home, but this Highlanders team has the talent to do it. Highlanders by 7.


Bulls vs Reds
The injury-plagued Reds travel to Pretoria this week for a match that could be a real clash of styles. The Queenslanders sit at the top of the Australian conference though they have less competition points than the Bulls who are currently the second-placed South African side.

The Bulls welcome Francois Hougaard and Johan Saadie back from suspension and injury respectively in the only changes to the starting fifteen who beat the Blues.

The Reds on the other hand currently have three injured fly-halves in Quade Cooper, Mike Harris and Ben Lucas so they have been forced to call up rookie Dallan Murphy, regarded as a strong ball-runner. Luke Morahan replaces the suspended Digby Ioane in a massively re-jigged backline. The news is better in the forwards where Wallabies Saia Faingaa and Ben Daley return to the front row, and Rob Simmons is back at lock. Radike Samo drops to the bench as he will be covering both the back row and the outside backs on what Ewan McKenzie called a “four and a half-two and a half bench.”

Sadly the Reds’ injuries rather diminish what could have been a cracker of a match. Bulls by 10.


Lions vs Stormers
The Stormers are currently trailing the Highlanders on tries scored in the overall competition table, and they will be looking to keep the pressure on the southerners when they visit the injury-plagued Lions at Ellis Park. Promising New Zealand referee and former Chiefs’ first five eighth Glen Jackson will referee his second Super match after impressing in the Stormers vs Blues match last week.

John Mitchell has re-shuffled his backline this week, and has added scrum-half to his long list of positions plagued by injury. Butch James starts again at 10 with Elton Jantjes still injured, Tian Meyer replaces Michael Bondesio at 9 while Doppies la Grange moves in one to 12 and Jaco Taute shifts from 15 to 13.

The Stormers by contrast are unchanged, Allister Coetzee opting to retain the side that accounted for the Blues last week.

The Lions’ injury list suggests they will have a tough time this week, even though they are at home. Stormers by 7.


Bye
Chiefs

[aucklandlaurie]

On the NZ TAB theyve got head to head Auckland at $1.60 and the Hurricanes at $2.25,I smell a trap.

[aucklandlaurie]

Kiwi R D
And a couple of blues injuries you didnt mention,Anthony Boric and one Jerome Kaino.

[Pete C (Kiwireddevil)]

On the NZ TAB theyve got head to head Auckland at $1.60 and the Hurricanes at $2.25,I smell a trap.

Hmmm. So do I. Maybe they figure the 'Canes are due an off day

The pretty html version is up: http://v2journal.com/super-xv-2012-preview-round-5.html

[Pete C (Kiwireddevil)]

Kiwi R D
And a couple of blues injuries you didnt mention, Anthony Boric and one Jerome Kaino.

True - I only mentioned the "new" ones.

[aucklandlaurie]

fair enough,at the rate theyre going in a couple of weeks time there wont be enough characters in the box (the one I'm typing in) to fit them all in.

[Taylorman]

Gone for a few wildcards for S Guru this time. The teams are so close some good upsets might allow someone to split the field.

Should have done it last week...

[Full Credit]

How on earth did Digby get 5 weeks for that tackle when Hougaard got 1? If anything Coetze should have got 5 weeks for that fantastic bit of face-grabbing, over acting that followed.

The Waratahs would be flat out winning an egg and spoon race right now and I'm sure that if they get themselves in a winning position they'll find a way to blow it.

[Taylorman]

gone for the Cheetahs and Canes. Very impressed with the Cheetahs at the momnent and they did win this easily last year. Canes in a injury hit, mediocre blues side.
Not a lot inspires there and last is the word I associate with them in the NZ group.
Useless.

[Taylorman]

Credit...Blues Tahs match should be hard to pick! Pat vs hetic.

[Full Credit]

Blues Tahs would be annoyingly infuriating to watch / predict. It would definitely come down to who doesn't want it the most.

[Biltong]

Kiwi, just one question, I noticed the logs this morning, how can stormers hve 16 points after 3 games, is it not 16 points after 4 games?

[Full Credit]

I don't think they count the bye as a game.

[Woodstock]

Well cracking game tonight, 'Canes win with last kick of the game. No matter what them old Blues do they still a crock!! Serve them right, they say they represent Northland!! Well pop up and play a few games a season and get 23,000 at Whangarei.

Come on the Rebels.

[Taylorman]

Blues snatch defeat from the jaws of a win again.

[Biltong]

I went for the Blues and then tney drop me in the final minute.


I think I should write 2012 off as a bad experince and move on.

[chewed_mintie]

Wow - coudln't watch the game this morning but it certainly sets my days up!

Who'd have thought my beloved Canes would be 3/5 this season and doing better than the Blues and Crusaders? Not to mention, playing some good attacking rugby AND producing our next wonder flyhalf!

We're on the up, the hype just may become real......now I need to sit down before I start believing it!

[Pete C (Kiwireddevil)]

Kiwi, just one question, I noticed the logs this morning, how can stormers hve 16 points after 3 games, is it not 16 points after 4 games?

You get 4 points for a bye.

Adam Thomson has a neck strain so James Haskell gets his first start for the Highlanders, playing #6.

And here's a great article by Force player Matt Hodgson on the travel requirements of Super Rugby http://www.theroar.com.au/2012/03/23/hodgson-super-rugby-travel-leaves-players-up-in-the-air/

[Biltong]

Agh, I forgot about that rubbish.

[Taylorman]

Good on Haskell for getting his first start. Seen a couple of local interviews with him and he looks to be settling in well living the almost typical otago student life.

Yeah biltong. Given up on the blues. Even with nonu and weepu seemingly playing on their own as a pair the team looks disjointed and without direction.

Was waiting for the inevitable with that final try.

The byes with four points for all is a good way of making the points table make sense across the board. Everyone gets four or zero so its fair either way. Bit with the four a team doesnt suddenly drop several places due to bye. Makes sense.

Next game will split us again as ive got the sharks. Amazing how many are taking the tahs when they're playing so awful. But home game i suppose and sharks arent firing.

Also took the cheetahs v saders. First home game at new ami. Just think cheetahs are looking more of a team and have impressed. Saders as Oz du Randt says are finding it tough post world cup plus last years stressful travel levels. They need time to refresh.

Mintie Canes look more of a team than theve ever looked. In all honesty tthe saders white boy trend is working. Sounds racist but I think you can have too many maori and islanders in a team at this level. What they make up for in flair and pace they lose in structure and the tough grinding work and consistency.

Blues are typical of that. Now I can see what Hammett meant.

[Biltong]

The byes with four points for all is a good way of making the points table make sense across the board. Everyone gets four or zero so its fair either way. Bit with the four a team doesnt suddenly drop several places due to bye. Makes sense.

I disagree with that taylorman, it is hard to keep track midwat through the tournamnet to work out where a team really stans, because you now have to work out whether the team has already recieved their 4 bye log points.

If it was nil, then no need to work it out.

It is much easier when no points are awarded for a bye, the team than has only earned points.

I found it confusing at the end of last year trying to figure out near the end, who still had to get their by points.


if I remember correctly it was the blues or one of the other NZ teams that recieved their bye points right at the end. It made a difference to the final play offs.

[Pete C (Kiwireddevil)]

It's 6 of one and half a dozen of the other IMO Biltong - if there are no points issued for the bye you have to look ahead and try to figure out how many matches a team has left, and whether they could suddenly be caught by someone who still has a bye to play. Sometimes it's easier to say "well, team x will get 4 from the bye, while team y has the Rebels at home so should get 5, then they play each other ..."

[Biltong]

Yeah, I just look at it from a simplistic point of view.

If team A has playd 12 matches and has 35 log points
Team B has played 11 matches for 32 points
Team C has played 12 matches for 37 points.

Considering there are no "ghost" points awarded for byes.

By just looking at the log, it immediately tells me, Team B can go past team A by virtue of a win and draw level with team C by virtue of a win with a bonus point.

If I now have to work out which of these teams have recieved their bye points, then I have to go see when were their bye weekend.

[Biltong]

You see take the stormers as an example they have two bye weekends.

Week 3 and week 11

So you now have to remember they get their 4 bye points for week 3. but not for week 11.

So you can look at every team.

[Biltong]

The Bulls have week 4 and week 10 as byes, so it really does confuse the issue.

[aucklandlaurie]

As a Blues supporter I cant wait for the Waratahs game,bring it on.

That Blues team looks like theyre just about ready to begin pre season training,Why cant Pat Lam go and coach in Australia or Wales or japan or...

[kiakahaaotearoa]

Don´t forget the Crusaders got a bonus point for their bye because they came within less than 7 points from the team they played in their bye.

[Taylorman]

Still don't see a problem with it Biltong. In your scenario team B has 12 games and 36 points already in my mind. The 4 points is already there for them all. Its just that team B's isnt displaying yet as their bye round hasnt arrived. A and C have already had theirs added because they are on max matches. So you just add it in. I think they add 4 each round.

[Biltong]

They didn't last year, you only got 4 bye points once.

Anyway the sharks are looking good against the Waratahs but they are only leading by 4 half time. They have elected not to kick to posts twice now and might just rue it later on.

[Biltong]

after a third successful penalty in the corner and the third successive line out drive Bismarsck shows great power to go over

24-13

[Biltong]

Warathas hit back immediately

kick over 24-20

[Biltong]

tahs starting to gain confidence , two counter rucks later a turn over and a quick try.

[Biltong]

Have to say though pathetic play by Whithead, three players chasing the kick into shark 22 and he tries to run the ball out.

Tahs 27-24

[Biltong]

sharks take a penalty kick and the scores are tied.

[Biltong]

Sharks defence poor as the Tahs get a try in the corner from first phase possession, as Kafe says Tahs lucky to get the scrum as they knocked on.

Tahs 34 -30, 4 minutes to go.

[Biltong]

Sharks with a couple of possessions have a scrum on the 22 of the Tahs.

Last attacking opportunity.

[Biltong]

Tahs get a penalty at the scrum, this should be game, set and match.

[Biltong]

Tahs win by 4.

Consolation I get some points on Sportsguru.

[Taylorman]

Geez had sharks by the correct 3 until that try so same as what happened to you last night biltong. Got the cheetahs next! still think they have a chance.

[aucklandlaurie]

Thats the best the Waratahs have played this year,that last ten minutes had a bit of everything.

[Pal Joey]

You need some mate.

Good win eventually. Thought the ref was inconsistent but the Tahs deserved that one. I was waiting for them to blow it and give another penalty away.

Thought that Sharks player should have sent to the bin for the deliberate knock on. Oh well, a wins a win.

[Pal Joey]

Geez had sharks by the correct 3 until that try so same as what happened to you last night biltong. Got the cheetahs next! still think they have a chance.

Am I mad Taylor? Tipped the Saders by 37 after hearing their average score against the Cheetahs was 36. Return of DC in Chch and all that. If they get off to a flyer... they could rack up some points.

Brave call by you though; good luck.

[aucklandlaurie]

I know its an old accorn.but was that another example of the travel killing a team in the last 15 minutes of the Game?

Im not trying to take anything away from NSW.but early on I thought the Sharks were going to run away with that.

[Pal Joey]

Yeah, maybe laurie but it was a strong finish with NSW running the ball and gaining some yards.... instead of kicking it away all the bloody time. I still think they are a hot & cold side. Difficult to watch and hard to predict.

[Taylorman]

Cant see 37 at all LB.
Carters in cotton wool on the bench and the saders sre just flat.
At new home i agree but cheetahs arent playing too badly and won this last year.
I think nearer to 12-15 at most maybe.
Dont underestimate the cheetahs. I like their 10.

[Pal Joey]

A minute's silence for Jock Hobbs. The ground looks good with all the stands full.

Maybe, I'm a touch over-optimistic...

[Taylorman]

Actually what would i know.
I just dont think 37 separates any two teams at the moment. Almost every game has gone to the wire.
Good scrum though....
Maybe theyre back...

[Pal Joey]

Good point... lots of matches separated by 1,3,4 points etc.

[Pal Joey]

3 down... 34 to go.

[Biltong]

I see the Crusaders are once again leading the way to steal tackled ball. The tackler doesn't try to pick the ball up, he gets support and the first three simply drive over the ball and the half back can pick up clean ball.

Good morning gentlemen.

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