Rafael Nadal - You Only Live Twice

Not sure how many people have had the pleasure of reading Tony Blair's Autobiography. In it he makes a brilliant point about Gordon Brown. In his book he points out that Gordon Brown lacked 'Emotional Intelligence' http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emotional_intelligence

Which brings me onto Nadal. This year started with defeat to Djokovic. He took February off and came back into the Clay season and swept up. It seemed that from a self management perspective, Nadal had got it spot on. Then along came the Blue Clay. It got to Nadal. He went out to Verdasco who in fairness was playing utter crap during their encounter. Nadal lost and then decided to come out declare his non-participation should the blue clay remain. For me that was disgraceful. Djokovic too complained and again these 2 demonstrated lack of Emotional Intelligence. Take Wimbledon. I can recall a certain Henman totally bemused by the slowness of the Grass in 2002 and had a quip about how slow it was. This again allowing the slightest change become a hinderance.

Nadal went to the French Open as the heavy favourite. He made the final unscathed and then facing him was one Novak Djokovic. Both players had the additional weight of history. For any competitor that is something that wets the appetite. The match however was going Nadal's way. 2 sets up. Djokovic shackled by self doubt. The heavens open up and Nadal allows the annoyance of it to get under his skin. Djokovic wins the 3rd and for me should've used that momentum to win the match, but he didn't. When they both came back out on Monday it seemed the rest and reflection helped Nadal. He went on to seal his 7th title in 4.

Wimbledon. For me Nadal to go and play in Halle so soon after the French Open was not his best decision. He went out to Kohlschreiber. Come Wimbledon and against Bellucci he wasn't at the races, but came through in 3. Next up was Lukas Rosol and well Nadal again not playing at his best and then came the roof delay after he sealed the 4th. He then again complained. During the match Rosol had got under Nadal's skin. There was the shoulder barge in the 4th and what transpired in the 5th was disgraceful. Time wasting, claiming was not ready to recieve, complaining to the umpire at 30-30. The whole thing smacked of desparation. See for me that is not the Nadal fighting champion. That was Nadal the desparate man on the edge. Again demonstrating lack of Emotional Intelligence. This time Rosol was not going to fold like Djokovic 3 weeks earlier. Nadal had this to say (in true Hawky cherry picking style)

“I was surprised because it takes 30-35 minutes to close the roof,” said Nadal, who explained that he was not complaining about the decision to close it, only that it took so long. I thought it would only be five or ten minutes. That is the only thing.”

The one thing that the blue clay, the rain and the roof have in common is that these are elements that Nadal cannot control. You can't change the surface any event decides to use. You can't stop the rain with a rain dance. You can't stop the referee making a decision about the roof on a stadium. Think about the things you can control. Yourself. Your racquet. Your shots. See Nadal has demonstrated in the last few months that he is vulnerable to disruptive factors that can affect matches. If I was Toni I would asking WTF is Rafa getting so annoyed and agitated by such factors? Every player faces little disruptions. Credit to Rosol though as he played a Soderling-esq match. Perfect shot making and winners which come around every blue moon! See I am sure Nadal was hoping that Rosol would crumble under the pressure of beating a former champion, but it didn't happen. Hence the title of the thread.

I don't buy into the all the pre-meditated talk that Nadal is on the decline. His game I don't think there is anything technically going away from him. I just think that mentally at the moment he is showing like cracks of fragility. During the Rosol encounter Henman remarked that Courier had said that he wanted his players to usher Nadal on court first. Cause disruption. Get into the mindset of Nadal before a ball is even hit. I think time away from the court will do Nadal good. With the Olympics on the horizon and the potential for matches being played under the roof, he may well decline the opportunity to win another Gold.

Take Pete Sampras. This man demonstrated Emotional Intelligence. Especially when playing Agassi. He knew of the needle and animosity that existed between the 2 and he chose to ignore those feelings and demolish Agassi on court. Connors and McEnroe the same. Showed Emotional Intelligence. Knew how to manage themselves even when they displayed little moments of weakness which they used as additional strength. Borg another one. Knew how to manage himself. Recently even Federer shows Emotional Intelligence. US Open 2005, Wimbledon 2007, Australian Open 2010. Tournaments where influencing factors against him served as strength. The partisan US crowd willing Agassi to a swansong Slam. Nadal using the Hawkeye system to perfection and antagonising Federer. Talks of a 16th Slam looking beyond him despite destroying Murray in 3 sets again.

Nadal needs to work on his Emotional Intelligence and start to control his emotions just a tad bit better. We are all human and human error is unavoidable. Trying to reason with factors out of your control is begging for trouble in any sport. I am sure that Nadal will resolve this glitch.

18 months without a title off clay says he is in decline.

Despite being ranked in the top 2 for the last 6 years?

Wow what a decline. Wish all players had that sort of decline.

Seifer Almasy wrote:18 months without a title off clay says he is in decline.

Doubles at Indian Wells 2012?

Doubles. Seriously. I was talking about singles, and well you know.

Nadal is still in the top 3 in the world right? And has been for donkeys years. As an outsider he don't seem to be declining too much. And if you want decline, Federer hasn't won a Grand Slam since Aussie Open 2010. That suggests decline to me

Is it not a 'title' off clay?

Why yes it is.

Olly wrote:Nadal is still in the top 3 in the world right? And has been for donkeys years. As an outsider he don't seem to be declining too much. And if you want decline, Federer hasn't won a Grand Slam since Aussie Open 2010. That suggests decline to me

Federer is in decline, yes (not surprising he is 30). lmao what that has to do with Nadal being in decline I am not sure? Can you explain?

I expected some intelligence on this forum but picking your intestines out is almost too easy.

To be fair I have never said Nadal might not be on the decline now. But over the last couple of years he has been alright. We won't be able to tell his decline until the US Open and further tourneys. Then we will see if he is on the real decline

He is 30. Of course he is! If he was playing like he was 04-07 he would still be winning slams and dominating.

Yeah I know Federer is. My last post was about Nadal!!!

I hear what you're trying to say LK but its not emotional intelligence. I actually think Nadal is highly emotionally intelligent.

What you're talking about is controlling one's emotions - or rather anxieties. That is not emotional intelligence. Its about controlling anxiety.

Nadal probably has mild OCD (like Beckham)...when you have that trait you have a need to control everything around you. Nadal literally worries about things that are beyond his control when others dont. Its his strength...and its his weakness. Most of the time its not an issue...but when things start going wrong people with this trait will seek to try to exert iron will on everything around them...which increaes anxiety levels further (OCD is part of the anxiety spectrum). But its not linked to emotional intelligence...anxiety is a mood disruption, not an emotional disruption.

Nadal and Sampras are different characters. They have different games and different mindsets to implement those games. Pete would have just served Rosol off the park last night, Nadal cant do that. His game doesnt have that kind of power. He has to win the hard way point in, point out which places him under extreme pressure. Sampras could just swing and hit himself out of danger...as he did with Agassi. When Nadal started to see things slipping his need to control things came to the fore...the roof, the player, etc. What he needs is psychology on letting go of things beyond his control, especially under extreme moments. But treating OCD spectrum is very tough.

Seifer...give it a break...it appears 200 of your 203 posts have been posted in the last 12 hours. You need to get a grip, a tennis player lost a tennis match...it has no bearing on yours, mine or any other posters life on here. You seem to get pleasure out of not only seeing him lose but mocking his fans too. Weird. What was that about emotional intelligence again LK?

Its the roofs fault.

The roof wanted Nadal to lose tonight, as it did in November.

Go to hell roof.

Olly wrote:Nadal is still in the top 3 in the world right? And has been for donkeys years. As an outsider he don't seem to be declining too much. And if you want decline, Federer hasn't won a Grand Slam since Aussie Open 2010. That suggests decline to me

Well of course he is. He's virtually 31, if he wasn't in decline it would be weird.

Strange that you feel the need to counter a legitimate point by thinking you can score one against another player to even it up.

I think you guys are misunderstanding me. I am not a Nadal fan, far from it. My fav tennis players are Djokovic and Simon (dunno why but I really like Gilles!)

What I can't understand how the guy loses one match and you guys get so much pleasure from it? That Rosol guy played one of the best matches I think I have ever seen a man play yesterday

lydian,

It is EI. I don't think it was anxiety. I think he just allows his emotions to become a burden to the way he thinks. I don't think Nadal has shown 'Intelligence' emotionally this year because the slightest thing has got him. What Emotionally intelligent people do is know how to control themselves and their appearance to others. Rosol you could see fancied to take Nadal out. Compare it with Ward who should've won the first 2 Fish service games in the 5th. His shot execution after 3-3 was just bizarre. Pulling out of shots. Who does that? Fish was hanging in and you could tell he was just waiting to be put to the sword and instead Ward waved the white flag.

Beckham like Ronaldo has set routines when coming to execution of free-kicks. I have never seen these 2 players 'unsettled' or 'intimidated' by opponents or surroundings.

Nadal and Sampras are not so different as you think. Both comfortable on favoured surfaces. Rosol got into Nadal. Sampras was got at by Kraijeck and Safin. Take when Nadal plays Federer. Do you ever see him break away from routine or by gameplay? No. Take when we had the rain delays at the US Open in 2008. When Nadal came back out, he wasn't agitated or annoyed. Even though he lost, he didn't seem out of sync.

Last night and even Madrid and Roland Garros, he demonstrated a lack of EI because he allowed un-controlable factors influence his every decision making. He couldn't connect with himself. Take when he sat down at 2-1 and Rosol was up and running. Nadal used his experience to slow things down. but then went right back into Rosol's tempo. That is not like Nadal at all.

I think you're making too much of this LK...Nadal is a highly successful player, one of the most successful ever. You dont do that by not being able to conduct your emotions well.

On occasion he may let the circumstances get to him...but this happens to just about any player. Some more than others, but we're talking minute differences at the very top level.

When you have a trait such as mild OCD, i.e. anxiety, some of the voluntary control is lost...the response becomes involuntary. For example, people with extreme anxiety disorder get panic attacks...these are out of their control as the adrenalin surges occur. Asking Nadal to keep moments in check when he's highly stressed about the conditions around him is not easy because his anxieties set off a chain reaction which involve adrenalin...and because he's already pumped up in a match situation is makes trying to control an involuntary response even harder.

I think yesterday is not in a pattern of things generally for him...it was a freak match, we all know that. In freak situations anyone can act out of normal, or allow themselves to start worrying about everything as they see things slipping. He'll be back in control of himself again after a period of reflection and rest. Sometimes a big loss like this can be a release you know....not so much a breakdown but a breakthrough. He'll have learnt alot from the experience last night.

Finally, I dont agree about Safin and Krajicek. Those players in prime and peak were always able to take games away from players. Krajicek played 2 weeks of unreal tennis, no-one could touch him. Sampras didnt "lose it"...he was just beaten by a guy serving out of a tree...way faster than Rosol on quicker grass. Safin was a true talent who was a monster that day too and was in good form all event. Rosol is different...he came out with nothing to lose, swung his racquet like a warhammer and it all amazingly went in. It probably would have unsettled any player...because the guys at the top know its a freak match for this guy but cant do anything about it. So in losing control of the match - or having control of it taken away from them - they start to berate everything else. As I said last night it was a perfect storm for Nadal...a storm the like of he's unlikely to be in the eye of again. He wont worry too much about it...lightening rarely strikes twice in the same place...but its scary and unsettling at the moment it does strike the first time. We just have to be careful not to overthink this...

Nadal would have only 1 or 2 slams should he not be always time wasting and affecting the players rhythm.

Nadal is a multi slam and masters champion because he winds players up and irritates them something that Federer hardly ever is known to do.

Rosol is not even close to being a grass specialist and Nadal woudn't have any videos on him to study how he played with this being a first meeting.

The things I found distasteful yesterday was the barge in the 4th set, the complaining to the Umpire (I think about Rosol moving on receiving) and the "not ready" on the ace.

Each of these was very wrong, and hypocritical on the issue of antics on receiving or serving, and they damage Nadal in the eyes of many.

I thought it significant that Centre Court was going wild for Rosol to win at the end; the Nadal fans were heavily outnumbered, at least it sounded that way. I think the neutrals came over to Rosol.

I'm surprised no one has mentioned Uncle Toni's on-court coaching in the 1st set tie break.

I think you're making too much of this LK...Nadal is a highly successful player, one of the most successful ever. You dont do that by not being able to conduct your emotions well.

Not really. Like I said lydian great champions mentally hold together if physically they no longer keep up their levels. McEnroe/Becker/Federer are prime examples of this. I have said this is a dip and not something that I am saying will be long term. Again you are mis-interpretting what is being said. These last 3 months for me have been the most vulnerable that I have seen Nadal mentally. Physically like I stated there is nothing wrong.

Finally, I dont agree about Safin and Krajicek. Those players in prime and peak were always able to take games away from players. Krajicek played 2 weeks of unreal tennis, no-one could touch him. Sampras didnt "lose it"...he was just beaten by a guy serving out of a tree...way faster than Rosol on quicker grass. Safin was a true talent who was a monster that day too and was in good form all event. Rosol is different...he came out with nothing to lose, swung his racquet like a warhammer and it all amazingly went in. It probably would have unsettled any player...because the guys at the top know its a freak match for this guy but cant do anything about it. So in losing control of the match - or having control of it taken away from them - they start to berate everything else. As I said last night it was a perfect storm for Nadal...a storm the like of he's unlikely to be in the eye of again. He wont worry too much about it...lightening rarely strikes twice in the same place...but its scary and unsettling at the moment it does strike the first time. We just have to be careful not to overthink this...

Again you are misconstruing this. Sampras was blasted off the court by Safin and Kraijcek. Sampras being blasted off the court was something which was never associated with his defeats in the past. Look at when Becker retired on the back of himself being blasted from Centre Court by Sampras. The seed of doubt is quite a massive thing to overcome. If like Sampras at the time was convinced he had the biggest serve, the biggest FH and guys come along and blast him from the court, that is a way to get under someone's skin like Sampras.

This thread is highlighting that recent behaviour by Nadal has been strange given how well composed he normally is and the fact it has been a sequence of events back to back makes it much more stranger. Yes OCD is difficult thing to live with as family member of mine suffers with it, but sometimes 'symptoms' of OCD can often be misconstrued with just 'meticulous thinking'

One of the best pre match Nadal groupie comments ever:

"rosol didn't play incredible tennis, he only played like karlovic, and it was nadal who played humiliating tennis, that's all , next round rosol will be kicked out"

I dont think I was misconstuing, just countering with my thoughts. Yes these guys can be blown off court by others...it shows strength in depth of the mens game. McEnroe and Becker are poor examples of mental control IMO.

I just think Nadal needs time out LK...the tour these days is like a pressure cooker for those getting to the business end of each week. Nadal has felt the weight of coming back at Djokovic and had huge pressure on him to get that 7th FO. I dont think he's recovered mentally yet from the strain of doing that IMO...he looked particularly flat in Halle so its no wonder he was flattish yesterday for the first 3.5 sets, and didnt look good in R1 either. After R1 I didnt have much expectation for him to get past QF anyway...he looks spent to me. And he gets niggly when he's mentally tired. Its very hard to be the perfect competitor week in, week out when you're under the scrutiny of all and sundry for every action you make and word you say.

So time out is probably wise for him. He'll know where he went wrong yesterday, lets not fool ourselves otherwise. These guys know how to win because they generally learn from their losses.

Becker and McEnroe are good examples lydian. Physically their form evaporated more than mentally not being able to perform in pressure situations.

I agree Nadal needs time off. I do hope he misses the Olympics and recharges himself. I think the FO and Madrid took a lot of him and I think he must've been all over the place mentally given the erratic nature of his performances at Wimbledon. This season is going to end sooner with the WTF being first week of November and not just Nadal but others will be exhausted. If Djokovic wins Wimbledon, I cannot see him winning at New York. Again he looks a tad bit tired.

I think Nadal needs time off the court. Don't touch a racquet and just relax.

Well, that's what Nadal did after the Soderling loss, but I think he's getting a bit old for these extended breaks. Tennis careers are finite after all...

How could Madrid take anything out of him, he was only there 5 minutes?

And in the French he had one tough match, the rest were cakewalks.

I just think that Rafa, like all of them, will fall victim to time. It's not so much that he'll physically decline yet but players see others hurting him and fancy a bit themselves. The most telling quotes from Rosol were all about more or less "he's only human, nobody is unbeaten, everyone can lose". That sort of thing means the aura that he and Federer had can evaporate.

And finally, there's mental fatigue. How to keep up for it match after match, tournament after tournament without getting cheesed off with it all. It's corrossive. This is where I think Federers style may pay off - because it's a game he clearly loves playing and doesn't take quite the mental toil that Rafas must.

Anyway, no obituaries yet, but this was very significant. First 2nd round defeat since 2005 and these things funnily enough are NEVER blips, later on in hindsight they always show up on a trend graph.

I think mentally Madrid and the FO drained him BB. The comotion over the blue clay and even in that 3 set match with Verdasco he looked like he couldn't swing a racquet.

I think mentally he has hit a wall. He just needs a recharge.

Nadal is the most annoying possible opponent a player can meet. He does every possible trick to get under his skin: with his delays during points set up his own rythm and break his opponent's, It's clear he does all of his infamous antics with an agenda. It speaks voulme he could go so far as to complain to the umpire for the other player doing exactly the some tricks although in a milder way.

Agree LK. He needs time out...they all do from time to time. Federer hit the mental wall in 2009 when he was breaking racquets at IW...it happens, and Nadal has been grinding it out at the top for a long time now. The pressure they put themselves under alone is enormous...sometimes the pressure gets to them, they're not infallible.

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:Nadal is the most annoying possible opponent a player can meet. He does every possible trick to get under his skin: with his delays during points set up his own rythm and break his opponent's, It's clear he does all of his infamous antics with an agenda. It speaks voulme he could go so far as to complain to the umpire for the other player doing exactly the some tricks although in a milder way.

But that's what made it enjoyable watching. That 5th set yes Nadal turned to desparate actions, but if was offset by Rosol refusing to be riled by it. He was giving as good as he got. Says a lot about the top players if only a player ranked at 100 can get under Nadal's skin. A 100 ranked player showed how to mentally cope with Nadal. Let's see if the higher ranked players learn from this.

lydian wrote:Agree LK. He needs time out...they all do from time to time. Federer hit the mental wall in 2009 when he was breaking racquets at IW...it happens, and Nadal has been grinding it out at the top for a long time now. The pressure they put themselves under alone is enormous...sometimes the pressure gets to them, they're not infallible.

It does. No-one can escape mental fatigue. I felt that Nadal was going to explode yesterday on court. Murray did at the US Open in 2010. Players just capitulate. It's knowing when to take a break from the court before it has more long lasting effect on form.

legendkillarV2 wrote:

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:Nadal is the most annoying possible opponent a player can meet. He does every possible trick to get under his skin: with his delays during points set up his own rythm and break his opponent's, It's clear he does all of his infamous antics with an agenda. It speaks voulme he could go so far as to complain to the umpire for the other player doing exactly the some tricks although in a milder way.

But that's what made it enjoyable watching. That 5th set yes Nadal turned to desparate actions, but if was offset by Rosol refusing to be riled by it. He was giving as good as he got. Says a lot about the top players if only a player ranked at 100 can get under Nadal's skin. A 100 ranked player showed how to mentally cope with Nadal. Let's see if the higher ranked players learn from this.

Yes, there is no question the other top players got drawn into this tactics way too much, Fed for instance more than anyone else. At the end of the day this is what Connors and Mac used to pull out in to change the momentum of difficult matches, nothing new under the sun really. I never liked it beck then, and I still don't find it enjoyable now.

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:Nadal is the most annoying possible opponent a player can meet. He does every possible trick to get under his skin: with his delays during points set up his own rythm and break his opponent's, It's clear he does all of his infamous antics with an agenda. It speaks voulme he could go so far as to complain to the umpire for the other player doing exactly the some tricks although in a milder way.

But that's what made it enjoyable watching. That 5th set yes Nadal turned to desparate actions, but if was offset by Rosol refusing to be riled by it. He was giving as good as he got. Says a lot about the top players if only a player ranked at 100 can get under Nadal's skin. A 100 ranked player showed how to mentally cope with Nadal. Let's see if the higher ranked players learn from this.

Yes, there is no question the other top players got drawn into this tactics way too much, Fed for instance more than anyone else. At the end of the day this is what Connors and Mac used to pull out in to change the momentum of difficult matches, nothing new under the sun really. I never liked it beck then, and I still don't find it enjoyable now.

I guess the ugly side of tactics are more suited the ugly players, not literally speaking but for example Federer being as graceful in his play was to turn to more vocal motivations would seem slighty disjointed to his style of play. Murray being a gobshite does match his play for example.

I can't wait for the US Open draw because I would imagine that is Rosol is drawn with Nadal would spark the 'rigging' debate again

I don't agree with the main premise of the OP.

Rafa is always an up and down player - when he's losing he very often looks agitated or grumpy on Court. I think that the suprise of this defeat has tended to magnify that and make people look for patterns, but he was blown off the Court by a guy on a tear whose game was exactly the worst possible match-up for Nadal's - hard flat hitting - and who had nothing to lose.

Oddly enough I think Fed might have had a better chance vs. Rosol because of the strength of his serve and his superior use of slice against a very tall guy.

I think Rafa looked more vulnerable after Rome last year and 4 defeats in a row vs. Djoko. Where I do agree with the OP is that I think he'll be back.

Oddly enough I think Fed might have had a better chance vs. Rosol because of the strength of his serve and his superior use of slice against a very tall guy.

Agree with that point. I think Federer and his slice could've blunted the onslaught of FH's. I think Nadal just wasn't getting any length on his FH and it didn't get as much kick as he would've liked.

I think Rafa looked more vulnerable after Rome last year and 4 defeats in a row vs. Djoko. Where I do agree with the OP is that I think he'll be back.

He only looked vulnerable to Djokovic last year in all honesty. I think if you weigh up the defeats to Djokovic than to Verdasco, Kohlschreiber and Rosol you can see that the calibre of these defeats are more likely to hurt more than losing to someone who was on the tear that Djokovic was last year.

legendkillarV2 wrote:
He only looked vulnerable to Djokovic last year in all honesty. I think if you weigh up the defeats to Djokovic than to Verdasco, Kohlschreiber and Rosol you can see that the calibre of these defeats are more likely to hurt more than losing to someone who was on the tear that Djokovic was last year.

I agree with the first sentence - but losing consistently to his main rival including on his best surface was worse than the defeats this year you describe.

Madrid - he thought that the whole thing was a nonsense anyway and was not out to win the tournament once he started slipping around.
Halle - apart from 2008 he's always gone out at Queens after a couple of rounds of feeling the grass beneath his feet (and no doubt picking up a fee). Losing that match was no more than business as usual.
Wimbledon - like I said, horrible match-up against a guy on a (probably once-in-a-lifetime) tear. Even if his forehand is kicking up tall guys are better equipped to deal with it.

The trouble with losing to Djoko in 2011 was that it was each time in a match he desperately wanted to win, there were no excuses or explanations, and he knew that Djoko would likely always be there to duff him up in the next big final (and Djoko was with one exception). The force of that hoodoo is somewhat diminished this year (but not completely).

I think however when winning the FO that year must've re-affirmed his belief to win. Even though we saw Djokovic defeat him on Grass and then Hardcourts.

I think when you are being outplayed by a main rival it must be frustrating, though what we have seen this year is much less intense Djokovic. Imagine defeating your main rivals in Grand Slams and then succumbing to a guy ranked 100 in the world?

I agree Halle/Queens shouldn't be much looked into due to his sketchy form on it.

Madrid, well not sure why he went if he wasn't happy with the changes. Granted the tournament was a failure of a spectacle, though I don't think Federer would've complained that much had the blue stuff stayed

Seifer Almasy wrote:18 months without a title off clay says he is in decline.

No - US Open final, Australian Open final, Indian Wells final, 2 Miami finals. Finals in all the big hard court tournaments. Wimbledon final.

If Djokovic hadn't improved his level so much Nadal won have actually done very nicely off clay for titles in the last 18 months. He isn't in declining himself, not absolutely anyway, only relative to the competition.

Actually before the last 18 months he rarely made the finals of such tournaments so regularly!

Henman Bill wrote: No - US Open final, Australian Open final, Indian Wells final, 2 Miami finals. Finals in all the big hard court tournaments. Wimbledon final.

If Djokovic hadn't improved his level so much Nadal won have actually done very nicely off clay for titles in the last 18 months. He isn't in declining himself, not absolutely anyway, only relative to the competition.

Actually before the last 18 months he rarely made the finals of such tournaments so regularly!

Nadal isn't in decline. All top players are prone to freak upsets, however it has been remarkable how few there have been over the years. It's usually happened when a player has aged or it's not their best surface. In Nadal's case, grass is not his weakest surface but not his strongest surface either. So an upset could always have happened. Nadal isn't old but as grass isn't his strongest surface, a freak upset was always possible at some point, the fact it's happened when he's 26 is slightly concerning but not overly. If a trend emerges then something is clearly going on, but there hasn't been enough time to discern that. Fed also suffered a smaller upset in being beaten by Tsonga in last year's match which has many similarities in Nadal's match with Rosol. Tsonga and Rosol both went on the lose in their next round matches not to forget the similarity in the scoreline in the sets they won off Fed & Nadal to beat them. Nadal will win either one or more slams off clay, as I so often say with Fed, I can't tell you where or when, but it will happen at some point. Probably the Aussie Open in 2013 or 2014, it's a slow surface and he was very close last time.