without Gats how does that affect the fight for fourth

The big push among the top seven teams has been to get the top 4 IRB places. With Gats gone will they make it with their 4 games and all the games counting as the last place count come down to .5 of a point or less.

Will the argies be able to keep up their level for all those games (4N and AIs) or will they give up their hard fought 4N points to the NH.

Playing away from home the with Dean and Myers having things to prove could they try to hard and lose or will the win and easily make it into the top 4 with Wales, France and England fighting for the last place.

I thought you meant 4th spot in the 6 nations, that the usual aim the year after a grand slam isnt it?

Yeah I think it will be interesting to see how Wales do this year. If the regions do poorly in the HC and wales are 3rd or fourth what does that do for the Lions.

Also I think Ireland could also suffer this year in HC form as we wont get two to the final and who knows what the 6Ns hold. Saying that or deafeats to NZ aren't looking so bad when you look at the 4N at the moment.

Scotland is really the one who if they do anything will be winners. They have been nearly men in to many games and all it takes is for Visser to get a try a game and they will be winning and mid table 6N.

I think the 4Ns and AIs will tell us more about the international teams then the summer tests.

I am not looking forward to Howley being in charge but please lets not start on poor HC performances by our Regions meaning we will be poor in 6 Nations

Gatland will be involved as mucha s he can do. After all he would not want Howley to mess this up, as if we can get to the 4th place it would make Gatlands job in the RWC easier. Does anyone really think that he is just going to sit in the pub and watch the AIs? No he will be on the phone from the stands with the Lions selction team giving pointers etc.

Also as regards the 6Ns I think we have a few interesting selection headaches on the horizon, with some favoured players being injury prone and some other options playing themselves into contention (Prydie & Dan Evs looking good for Dragons etc etc)

bedfordwelsh wrote:I am not looking forward to Howley being in charge but please lets not start on poor HC performances by our Regions meaning we will be poor in 6 Nations

I think one of gats strenghts is he can build people up and make them believe they can do it. If the Welsh players aren't doing so well at the regions or clubs will howley be able to get them up to speed. I do think that if Gats had been running the show full in the summer they would have got the last game over the line

ScarletSpiderman wrote:Gatland will be involved as mucha s he can do. After all he would not want Howley to mess this up, as if we can get to the 4th place it would make Gatlands job in the RWC easier. Does anyone really think that he is just going to sit in the pub and watch the AIs? No he will be on the phone from the stands with the Lions selction team giving pointers etc.

Also as regards the 6Ns I think we have a few interesting selection headaches on the horizon, with some favoured players being injury prone and some other options playing themselves into contention (Prydie & Dan Evs looking good for Dragons etc etc)

I expect him to me in consant contact but he wont be in the dressing room and wont be calling every call in the game. He may tell Howley to get a play on that he might have brought on 5mins earlier.

I think this might accuall be the year when the AIs will be close for nearly every game and maybe the NH will get smoe good wins not just hold on for the win.

Brendan - no he won't be making every decision, but I don't think he does now. After all once they area on the pitch the players are on their own anyway.

Samoa and Argentina are good but I think we still have enough to beat them both in Cardiff without Gats, who will come back in for the next two tests against NZ and Aus. Those are the team we can pick up rankings points from, I'm not sure if Arg will be higher, they will have to win a game in the rugby championship.

Surely that draw, and a few narrow losses will give Argentina points though!!!

Not sure, think the gap might be too big for them to be able to nick points without winning. They are 8th right?

ScarletSpiderman wrote:Brendan - no he won't be making every decision, but I don't think he does now. After all once they area on the pitch the players are on their own anyway.

In that regard he's no different to any coach. So yes, coaches don't make every decision but they do make a difference or else there would have been no reason for choosing Gatland as Lions coach over any of the other coaches out there. That he was picked assumes he makes a difference and that difference would ideally be best effected by his presence on rather than his absence from the training field.

If he's good enough to get the Lions job then he's good enough to be missed (however much is debatable) by the Welsh side when he isn't around.

Secret

I'd argue with Edwards in charge Gatland wouldn't be missed much at all, Howley however... JEESUS!!!

thebluesmancometh wrote:Secret

I'd argue with Edwards in charge Gatland wouldn't be missed much at all, Howley however... JEESUS!!!

Well, bluesman, you obviously think Edwards is the keyman and the real brains going on what you say. Maybe so - not saying you're wrong. He should probably then though step out from under the safety blanket of sub-coach and go look for some International slot as head coach where he might get all the kudos..... and all the attention Gatland is the one who gets all the attention and gets it in the neck when things don't work (not always his fault with people like Edwards around...!), his reputation will be on the line even now with the Lions next year. If Edwards has it all in coaching terms I think maybe it's time for him to emerge from the shadows and...... well, prove it.

I think there is too much emphasis on the roll and influence of coaches in the short term by most of you. Gatland has had four years of putting our current squad of thirty plus players together, with Howley and Edwards, as well as Jenks, McBride, Dan Baugh etc...!

The coaching team are a big group, Gatlands absence will make little difference, the WRU would not have let him assume the roll if it was detrimental to Welsh success.

Fly

I agree with you whole heartedly, lets be honest the Welsh gameplan is based around Edwards defencive organisation, make few mistakes, and capitolise on your opponents. Until this season at least.

Edwards has the umbrella of protection and I definately want to see that gone, but if it's a straight choice between Edwards and Howley...

thebluesmancometh wrote:

Edwards has the umbrella of protection and I definately want to see that gone, but if it's a straight choice between Edwards and Howley...

What do mean by the "umbrella of protection"...?

He takes credit when it's due but doesn't have to worry about criticism, Gatland takes that away from him.

I don't think Gatland being away will impact the fight for 4th at all. I expect England, Ireland and France to battle it out just like last year.

Morgannwg wrote:Samoa and Argentina are good but I think we still have enough to beat them both in Cardiff without Gats, who will come back in for the next two tests against NZ and Aus. Those are the team we can pick up rankings points from, I'm not sure if Arg will be higher, they will have to win a game in the rugby championship.

I think you are probably right. Wales is on a high at the moment. samoa will struggle, if for no other reason they get no time together. Argentina might be interesting. This year is a watershed year for them. For the first time they get a comparative schedule to the other top side and the chance to develop a side. I think they will be more competitive as a result. Even if they struggle over the next few weeks, they have the opportunity to lay the groundwork going forward. If they can add an attacking game to their set piece and physicality watch out.

I was wondering, hypothetically if anyone had added up the numbers for the possibility that a). The NH sides all beat their AI rivals? Or b). They don't win any?

Both unlikely occurrences but where might we stand if say England and France do as well as us and we all move forward to the detriment of the top three sides.

maestegmafia wrote:I was wondering, hypothetically if anyone had added up the numbers for the possibility that a). The NH sides all beat their AI rivals? Or b). They don't win any?

Both unlikely occurrences but where might we stand if say England and France do as well as us and we all move forward to the detriment of the top three sides.

Interesting question Maes. A lot depends on South Africa and Australia's performance over the next 4 games.
http://www.irb.com/rankings/full.html - it's possible one or other could gain or lose 2 or 3 ranking points.

NZ is probably unassailable as top seed. But one or both of SA/Aus could drop back a little more before the AIs, and conceivably be well within reach of Eng/Fra/Wal. At that point, if Eng/Fra/Wal win all of their games then you'd likely have:
1) NZ
2) Eng (they're playing all of NZ, SA and Aus so would gain the most points)
3) Wales
4) Fra (only playing 1 of the big 3)

A complete sweep of losses in the AIs for Eng/Fra/Wal would probably see the winner of Ireland vs Argentina take 4th spot.

I don't think Gatland will come back tO Wales after the Lions. Or if he does it will be some brief caretaking role.

anotherworldofpain wrote:I don't think Gatland will come back tO Wales after the Lions. Or if he does it will be some brief caretaking role.

Why..?

Your reasoning is likely to be more interesting than the fact that you have an opinion.

Pete C (Kiwireddevil) wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:I was wondering, hypothetically if anyone had added up the numbers for the possibility that a). The NH sides all beat their AI rivals? Or b). They don't win any?

Both unlikely occurrences but where might we stand if say England and France do as well as us and we all move forward to the detriment of the top three sides.

Interesting question Maes. A lot depends on South Africa and Australia's performance over the next 4 games.
http://www.irb.com/rankings/full.html - it's possible one or other could gain or lose 2 or 3 ranking points.

NZ is probably unassailable as top seed. But one or both of SA/Aus could drop back a little more before the AIs, and conceivably be well within reach of Eng/Fra/Wal. At that point, if Eng/Fra/Wal win all of their games then you'd likely have:
1) NZ
2) Eng (they're playing all of NZ, SA and Aus so would gain the most points)
3) Wales
4) Fra (only playing 1 of the big 3)

A complete sweep of losses in the AIs for Eng/Fra/Wal would probably see the winner of Ireland vs Argentina take 4th spot.

It's far more likely that there is a mix of these possible out comes rather than the likelihood of that actually happening.

blackcanelion wrote:

Morgannwg wrote:Samoa and Argentina are good but I think we still have enough to beat them both in Cardiff without Gats, who will come back in for the next two tests against NZ and Aus. Those are the team we can pick up rankings points from, I'm not sure if Arg will be higher, they will have to win a game in the rugby championship.

I think you are probably right. Wales is on a high at the moment. samoa will struggle, if for no other reason they get no time together. Argentina might be interesting. This year is a watershed year for them. For the first time they get a comparative schedule to the other top side and the chance to develop a side. I think they will be more competitive as a result. Even if they struggle over the next few weeks, they have the opportunity to lay the groundwork going forward. If they can add an attacking game to their set piece and physicality watch out.

On a high?! Really.

I think we are in a trough and after being blooded by the SH the Argentines will come to Cardiff on a mission. They have beaten Wales several times before and since we are coming off numerous defeats and yet again, Howley will be in charge I am nervous.

mowgli wrote:

blackcanelion wrote:

Morgannwg wrote:Samoa and Argentina are good but I think we still have enough to beat them both in Cardiff without Gats, who will come back in for the next two tests against NZ and Aus. Those are the team we can pick up rankings points from, I'm not sure if Arg will be higher, they will have to win a game in the rugby championship.

I think you are probably right. Wales is on a high at the moment. samoa will struggle, if for no other reason they get no time together. Argentina might be interesting. This year is a watershed year for them. For the first time they get a comparative schedule to the other top side and the chance to develop a side. I think they will be more competitive as a result. Even if they struggle over the next few weeks, they have the opportunity to lay the groundwork going forward. If they can add an attacking game to their set piece and physicality watch out.

On a high?! Really.

I think we are in a trough and after being blooded by the SH the Argentines will come to Cardiff on a mission. They have beaten Wales several times before and since we are coming off numerous defeats and yet again, Howley will be in charge I am nervous.

I think the opposite regarding the Psyche of the welsh squad. They'll feel that they should and could have won in oz and will be out to prove a point.